1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: High nickel prices stimulate production, but demand is weak. The price is expected to fall and then fluctuate widely, with the main reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan [2]. - Stainless steel: Cost support is strengthened, but demand and inventory digestion are insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The regulatory environment is strengthened, and the price is supported. It may fall in the short - term, with the main reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan [8]. - Copper: In the long - term, the copper price bottom is expected to rise. In the short - term, it may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to CL premium changes, with the main support range of 101,500 - 103,000 yuan [9]. - Zinc: The zinc price is supported by tight mines. Although there is negative feedback on the demand side, the fundamentals are good, and attention should be paid to zinc mine TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main support range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan [13]. - Tin: Short - term prices fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to be cautious. In the medium - to - long - term, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [14]. - Aluminum alloy: It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to waste aluminum circulation, import window changes, and pre - holiday downstream inventory [15]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to wait for price stability and volatility decline to go long, and pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan [16]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to oscillate, with the main price range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan. Attention should be paid to production reduction and demand changes [17]. - Polysilicon: In February, supply and demand are weak. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to order recovery and capacity regulation. The price may be supported at 45,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1.25% [2]. - **Stainless steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.69% [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 160,500 yuan/ton, down 4.46% [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 104,410 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [9]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 25,790 yuan/ton, up 1.98% [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 428,650 yuan/ton, down 2.27% [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,350 yuan/ton, down 0.81% [15]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,660 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: East China SI4210 industrial silicon price is 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 51,300 yuan/kg, down 2.29% [18]. Monthly Spread - **Nickel**: 2602 - 2603 is - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless steel**: 2602 - 2603 is - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: 2602 - 2603 is - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: 2602 - 2603 is - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: 2602 - 2603 is - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: 2602 - 2603 is - 1000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: 2602 - 2603 is - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: AL 2602 - 2603 is 110 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 1230 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in January is 31,400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month [2]. - **Stainless steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in January is 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production in December is 99,200 tons, down 1.31% month - on - month [8]. - **Copper**: Electrolytic copper production in January is 117.93 million tons, up 0.10% month - on - month [9]. - **Zinc**: Refined zinc production in January is 56.06 million tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: SMM refined tin production in December is 15,950 tons, down 0.06% [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in December is 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month [15]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina production in January is 738.56 million tons, down 1.78% month - on - month [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: National industrial silicon production in January is 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% [17]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon production in January is 10.08 million tons, down 12.73% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Urea**: On January 30, the urea futures oscillated and pulled back, and the spot price remained stable. The supply is sufficient as domestic urea enterprises are operating at a high level. Industrial demand is average, while agricultural demand is picking up. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: In February, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but due to high import pressure and port inventories, its price may follow the trend of oil prices and downstream styrene. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to turn loose in February. With high oil prices and weakening demand, the price of both is expected to face pressure. The strategy is to short lightly on a single - side basis and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply is contracting as some regions are moving towards reduced production and suspension of tapping. The cost support is strengthening due to rising overseas raw material prices. Demand is weakening as some enterprises are on holiday. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. It is recommended to try long positions [3]. - **Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP)**: Before the Spring Festival, far from the delivery month, the price is driven by macro factors and market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. In the short term, the price will maintain a strong - side oscillation, but the upward space is limited [7]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area is slightly decreasing, and the port inventory is also slightly decreasing. However, the weak MTO demand suppresses the price rebound. The key variables are the import volume from Iran and geopolitical factors [10]. - **Glass - Soda Ash**: Soda ash is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with a slight increase in inventory. It is expected to oscillate in a range before the Spring Festival. Glass has weak supply and demand, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to the same period last year. It is also expected to oscillate in a range before the Spring Festival [12]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In the first quarter, the supply - demand of PX and PTA is expected to weaken. In February, PTA may face significant inventory accumulation. Ethylene glycol has a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand pattern. Short - fiber and bottle - chip also face weak supply - demand in February. Strategies for each product mainly involve light - position operations, observing spreads, and option trading [13]. - **Crude Oil**: In January, international oil prices were generally strong, but the rebound space is limited due to the weak supply - demand pattern. In February, the supply is expected to increase, and demand remains weak. The price may face a callback if geopolitical risks do not expand further [14]. - **LPG**: The price of LPG futures is decreasing. The inventory in ports is decreasing, and the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The market situation needs to be further observed [17]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's supply - demand imbalance persists, and the futures' rebound height is expected to be limited. PVC's supply is slowly increasing, demand is decreasing due to the festival, and the inventory is increasing. The price is supported by cost and market sentiment [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On January 30, the closing prices of 01, 05, 09 contracts and the main contract decreased compared to January 29, with the main contract down 1.36% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, with the 01 - 05 spread down 6.67% and the 09 - 01 spread up 600.00% [1]. - **Main Force Positions**: The long and short positions of the top 20 decreased, with the long positions down 3.11% and the short positions down 6.58% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong down 0.46% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions had slight changes, with the price in Shandong (small - particle) up 0.56% [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, and the inventory in factories and ports changed. The production enterprises' order days increased [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the prices of pure benzene - related products also changed. The pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 3.8% [2]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in the spot and futures markets decreased, and the EB - BZ spread decreased [2]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and aniline changed, with the EPS cash flow up 666.7% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries changed, with the domestic pure benzene operating rate up 0.9% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex decreased, and the basis increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, with the 9 - 1 spread down 13.49% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China in December changed, and the operating rates of tire factories and the production and export of tires also changed [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in bonded areas and the futures inventory in factories decreased [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 decreased on January 30 compared to January 29 [7]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and varieties changed, with the LP05 spread up 6.15% [7]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased, and the basis of LLDPE increased [7]. - **Non - Standard Prices**: The prices of non - standard PE and PP products changed slightly [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, with the PE device operating rate up 0.81% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PE and PP enterprises and the social inventory changed, with the PE enterprise inventory down 3.58% [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased, and the MTO05盘面 increased by 19.38% [10]. - **External Prices**: The CFR China price of methanol decreased slightly [10]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [10]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises changed, with the overseas enterprise operating rate down 14.19% [10]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Glass Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in different regions and the futures prices of glass decreased, and the basis increased [12]. - **Soda Ash Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in different regions remained stable, and the futures prices of soda ash decreased, with the basis increasing [12]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass changed slightly [12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of glass factories decreased, and the inventory of soda ash factories increased slightly [12]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate improved to some extent [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil and other upstream products changed, with the price of PX decreasing [13]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased, and the cash flows changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products changed, with the PX - naphtha spread down 1.7% [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of PTA increased, and the basis and processing fees changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of MEG decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries changed, with the MEG comprehensive operating rate up 1.8% [13]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, with the SC price up 3.40%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [14]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [14]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel changed, with the US diesel crack spread up 15.10% [14]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [17]. - **External Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP swaps changed, with the FEI M1 contract down 0.98% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises changed, with the downstream PDH operating rate down 2.46% [17]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, with the price of PVC increasing [20]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit increased [20]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The CFR price of PVC remained stable, and the FOB price of PVC increased, with the export profit increasing significantly [20]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and the profits of different production methods changed, with the PVC total operating rate down 1.1% [20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of caustic soda and PVC downstream industries changed, with the alumina industry operating rate down 2.1% [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with the PVC total social inventory down 5.8% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the IRR, latest values, daily changes, and historical quantiles of basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different treasury bond futures such as TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, bid prices, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals are provided. Investment suggestions are given based on market conditions, such as buying call options for gold after market stabilizes, being cautious with silver, and waiting for adjustment in platinum and palladium prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **IF**: The current value of the spot - futures spread is 7.50, with a change of - 11.98 from the previous day. The historical 1 - year quantile is 94.60%, and the full - history quantile is 90.70%. For inter - period spreads like next - to - current month, the value is - 8.40, with historical quantiles of 92.60% (1 - year) and 62.40% (full - history) [1]. - **IH**: Similar data on spot - futures and inter - period spreads are presented, e.g., the spot - futures spread value and its historical quantiles [1]. - **IC**: The spot - futures spread is - 8.12, and the historical 1 - year quantile is 90.10%. Inter - period spreads such as season - to - next month are also provided [1]. - **IM**: The spot - futures spread is 5.74, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 90.00%. Inter - period spreads data are available [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/HS300, IC/IF, etc., are given with their current values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: For TS, the basis on 2026 - 01 - 30 is 1.1521, with a change of 0.0354 from the previous day and a historical quantile of 8.40%. Similar data for TF, T, and TL are provided [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads such as current - to - next season, next - to - far season for each variety (TS, TF, T, TL) are presented with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are given with relevant data [2]. Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2604 contract closed at 1161.42 yuan/g on January 30, down 7.02% from January 29. Similar data for AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 are provided [4]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold closed at 4907.50 on January 30, down 9.30% from January 29. Data for COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium are also available [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 4880.03 on January 30, down 9.25% from the previous value. Similar data for other precious metals are presented [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is 2.57, with a change of 8.29 and a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10%. Similar data for silver are provided [4]. - **Bid Prices**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver are given with their values, changes, and change rates [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.26, with a change of 0.02 and a change rate of 0.5%. Other relevant data are also provided [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained unchanged at 103029. Data for silver and other exchanges and ETFs are presented [4]. - **Investment Suggestions**: For gold, buy call options after market stabilizes. Be cautious with silver and wait for market adjustment. For platinum and palladium, wait for adjustment and then consider buying or short - term trading [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows low and stable production, declining apparent demand, seasonal inventory accumulation with a lower - than - year - on - year rate. Rebar continues to accumulate inventory while hot - rolled coils maintain de - stocking. Steel prices fluctuate with market sentiment, staying in a range. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widens, and the basis of rebar weakens while that of hot - rolled coils strengthens. In February, due to the Spring Festival off - season, supply and demand are weak. Steel prices are expected to continue seasonal inventory accumulation, with de - stocking pressure after the festival. The price is constrained by weak domestic demand on the upside and supported by macro sentiment and supply - side policies on the downside. Rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. With high inventory, stagnant resumption of iron - making production, and the fulfillment of steel mills' restocking, iron ore prices are under pressure. Supply shows a marginal decrease in the shipping center but is still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. Demand sees a slight decline in iron - making production and a drop in steel mills' profitability. Terminal demand for steel exports weakens, and the manufacturing industry faces an off - season. Before the Spring Festival, it is difficult to resume iron - making production, and negative feedback is also hard to observe. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel mills' inventory increases significantly. Before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to be under pressure, and one can try short - selling around 800 yuan, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling in January. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented on January 1st, followed by price increases from major coke producers. The first - round price increase was officially accepted by steel mills on January 28th and executed on the 30th. The supply side has lagging price adjustments of coke compared to coking coal, resulting in pressure on coking profits and a slight decline in production. The demand side has a slight resumption of production by steel mills after New Year's Day, with low - level iron - making production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills accumulate inventory, while ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level, and the supply - demand situation of coke improves. Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 yuan. - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Spot prices in Shanxi showed signs of decline, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures. The supply side has an increase in daily coal output from mines and faster de - stocking. Imported coal has a high - level inventory at ports, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has rebounded rapidly after New Year's Day. The demand side has limited growth in demand for downstream restocking before the Spring Festival due to low - level iron - making production, declining coking profits, and reduced production. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants, steel mills, and ports accumulate inventory, while mines, coal - washing plants, and ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong before the Spring Festival, with a reference range of 1050 - 1250 yuan. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended, but beware of the supply - demand situation turning loose after the festival [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply shows a slight decline, with stable production recently and an increase in the operating rate of manufacturers. The absolute weekly production is at a historically low level. Inner Mongolia's production rises steadily, Ningxia's production is stable, and southern regions may see a contraction in production due to potential electricity price hikes. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. The inventory in factories is still high, mainly concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse - receipt level is relatively low. The cost of alloy manufacturers' coal - mine replenishment is rising. The overall non - steel demand is marginally weakening. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The cost side also provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. - For ferromanganese, supply has a slight increase in production, basically remaining stable from the previous period. Most production areas' output is flat compared to last week, with a slight increase in Ningxia's output. Inner Mongolia's settlement electricity price in January is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the change in settlement electricity prices in other production areas. Before the Spring Festival, the production of ferromanganese is expected to be stable. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's next - month procurement volume is reduced compared to last month, and attention should be paid to the pricing. The non - steel demand is weakening, and the price is falling. The cost of manganese ore is expected to rise, but the increase is limited. In the short term, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the fundamentals lack impetus. The price of ferromanganese is expected to fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3250 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3128 yuan/ton, 3177 yuan/ton, and 3211 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3270 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3288 yuan/ton, 3311 yuan/ton, and 3336 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Plate - billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost is 3239 yuan/ton, unchanged, and converter rebar cost is 3168 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. - East China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. East China rebar profit is - 14 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, North China rebar profit is - 104 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China rebar profit is 146 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average iron - making production is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. - Total production of five major steel products is 823.20 thousand tons, up 3.6 thousand tons. Rebar production is 199.80 thousand tons, up 0.3 thousand tons, including 32.20 thousand tons of electric - furnace products, down 1.1 thousand tons, and 167.60 thousand tons of converter products, up 1.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil production is 309.20 thousand tons, up 3.8 thousand tons [1]. Inventory - Total inventory of five major steel products is 1278.50 thousand tons, up 21.4 thousand tons. Rebar inventory is 475.50 thousand tons, up 23.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 355.60 thousand tons, down 2.2 thousand tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials transaction volume is 5600 tons, down 1700 tons. Apparent consumption of five major steel products is 801.70 thousand tons, down 7.8 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of rebar is 176.40 thousand tons, down 9.1 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils is 311.40 thousand tons, up 1.5 thousand tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder is 845.7 yuan/ton, down 9.9 yuan. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, and the 5 - 9 spread is 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 31.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decline. For example, the price of PB powder is 790.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 105.6 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 25.30 million tons, down 1.297 million tons. The global weekly shipping volume is 29.783 million tons, up 0.484 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 119.647 million tons, up 9.107 million tons [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly average daily port - clearance volume at 45 ports is 332.30 thousand tons, up 21.6 thousand tons. The national monthly pig - iron output is 60.722 million tons, down 1.621 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output is 68.177 million tons, down 1.694 million tons [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 170.2226 million tons, up 2.557 million tons. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 99.686 million tons, up 5.798 million tons. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills is 27 days, up 4 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in Shanxi and Mongolia remain stable. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coking coal decline, and the basis and spreads show corresponding changes [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in Shanxi and Rizhao Port change. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coke decline, and the basis and spreads change accordingly [5]. Supply - The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons, and the weekly output of 247 steel mills is 47000 tons, up 100 tons. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines shows a decline [5]. Demand - The weekly iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory increases. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 84400 tons, up 2900 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 678200 tons, up 16600 tons. The port inventory is 198100 tons, up 2000 tons. Coking coal inventory also changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions show different changes. The main - contract closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decline [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions change. For example, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 5866.2 yuan/ton, up slightly [6]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon is 98000 tons, up slightly, and the operating rate is 29.1%. The weekly output of ferromanganese is 192000 tons, down slightly, and the operating rate is 36.2% [6]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese calculated by Steel Union shows little change. The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 - sample ferrosilicon enterprises is 37300 tons, up slightly, and the average available days for downstream ferrosilicon use increase. The inventory of ferromanganese and its average available days also change [6].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 2, 2026 [4][5][11] - **Report Type**: Futures Daily Position Tracking Report - **Reporting Institution**: GF Futures Research Institute 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of four major stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), analyzing the changes in total positions and the significant movements of the top twenty futures brokerage firms' positions for each contract [1]. 3. Summary by Variety IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 30, the total position of the IF contract increased by 9,087 lots, with the main contract 2603's position rising by 1,489 lots [5]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 53,810 lots. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in long - positions, with an intraday increase of 2,371 lots, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 817 lots [6]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 47,540 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in short - positions, with an intraday increase of 3,339 lots, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,081 lots [8]. IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 30, the total position of the IH contract decreased by 5,863 lots, with the main contract 2603's position dropping by 3,226 lots [11]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 14,486 lots. CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest increase in long - positions, with an intraday increase of 317 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,685 lots [12]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: GF Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 18,247 lots. Huawen Futures had the largest increase in short - positions, with an intraday increase of 471 lots, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,626 lots [13]. IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 30, the total position of the IC contract decreased by 4,373 lots, and the main contract 2603's position decreased by 7,265 lots [17]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 52,681 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long - positions, with an intraday increase of 1,160 lots, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,395 lots [18]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 62,731 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short - positions, with an intraday increase of 1,689 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 2,874 lots [20]. IM (CSI 1000 Index Futures) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 30, the total position of the IM contract decreased by 2,755 lots, with the main contract 2603's position dropping by 4,571 lots [24]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 58,825 lots. CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest increase in long - positions, with an intraday increase of 659 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 3,040 lots [25]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 81,223 lots. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest increase in short - positions, with an intraday increase of 1,061 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 2,155 lots [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday in February, market sentiment may be more cautious, and capital reduction may bring correction pressure. Geopolitical situations in the Middle East and South America, the announcement of the Fed Chair candidate, and the release of US economic data may cause uncertainty in precious metals. With reduced liquidity, market fluctuations may be more intense, and investors are advised to operate cautiously and use options to protect long - position profits. In the long term, although the Fed's monetary policy is short - term cautious, the long - term easing expectation remains unchanged. Trade frictions, geopolitical risks, and the "de - dollarization" trend will support the price of precious metals [7][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - This week, driven by macro - geopolitical concerns and capital sentiment, precious metal prices rose significantly. However, due to tightened market liquidity caused by US stock fluctuations, concentrated long - position stop - profits led to a sharp short - term decline in precious metals. On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai gold AU2604 ended its "five - consecutive - day rise" with a 4.71% drop, and the main contract of Shanghai silver AG2604 dropped 6.03%. Platinum and palladium futures were more affected by the decline in commodity and stock markets, with the main contract PT2606 dropping 11.79% and PD2606 dropping 11.87% [1]. Driving Factors Impact of US Stock Market - The release of Q4 2025 earnings reports of US technology companies showed that Microsoft's large AI capital expenditure without corresponding business growth led to concerns about the mismatch between high valuations and investment returns. Its stock price dropped over 10% on Thursday, with a market value loss of $420 billion. This triggered a chain reaction in the financial market, causing a general decline in US stocks. Precious metals and other commodities experienced a "flash crash" due to concentrated long - position stop - profits. International gold prices dropped over 8% and international silver prices dropped over 12% [2]. Physical Delivery and Supply - The previous sharp rise in silver prices was related to the tight physical supply. The industrial and investment demand for silver increased, causing the visible inventories in New York and Shanghai to reach new lows. However, after the COMEX silver January contract expired with a 50 - million - ounce physical delivery on Thursday, the delivery demand for the February contract decreased. In the London spot market, the silver ETF holdings decreased, and the market lending rate dropped to a recent low, indicating a temporary withdrawal of long - position forces. In China, the silver inventories in the two Shanghai exchanges continued to decline, with the SHFE silver inventory decreasing by 26.4 tons on Friday, reaching a new low in over 10 years [5]. Market Outlook - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand becoming the largest source. Central bank gold purchases slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons, while investment demand increased by 84% to 2175 tons. Gold ETF holdings increased by 801 tons, and the purchase of gold bars and coins rose by 16% to 1374 tons, a 12 - year high [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so it's advisable to participate with caution. In the medium - to - long - term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of the supply end and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Copper - In the short term, if the CL premium reverses, COMEX copper inventory may flow back to non - US regions, alleviating supply pressure there; if it remains narrow, copper prices may fluctuate in a wide range with limited upward potential, and if it widens, copper prices may maintain a relatively strong trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom is expected to rise gradually under the constraint of capital expenditure on the supply side, but current prices are suppressing downstream demand, and price fluctuations may intensify [3]. Zinc - The weakening of the US dollar index supports zinc prices. The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, and the supply pressure of refined zinc is easing. The demand side has shown a significant recovery in the processing industry's operating rate after the price correction, and the terminal orders are stable. The global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. Short - term prices have limited downside space, and it is recommended to focus on the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory, with the main contract supported at around 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [5]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has risen following commodities like coking coal. In January, both supply and demand have weakened slightly, with a slight inventory build - up. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction situation of industrial silicon. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, with the upper limit pressured by the opening of the arbitrage window and the lower limit supported by costs [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, but downstream components and battery cells are still reducing production despite price increases and increased exports due to weak domestic demand and the approaching Spring Festival. The demand for polysilicon is low, and the price is under pressure. In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the production reduction process and downstream demand recovery [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is affected by the overall risk - preference recovery in the commodity market and supply - contraction expectations, but the high - inventory pressure in the domestic spot market still suppresses prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum market has shown a high - level breakthrough, but the domestic fundamentals are under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, aluminum prices are expected to be strong and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of a high - level correction in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has followed the rise in aluminum prices but lacks financial attributes and has poor downstream acceptance. The cost is the main driving factor, and the fundamentals show a typical seasonal supply - and - demand weakness. It is expected that the ADC12 price will continue to oscillate in the high - level range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton in the short term [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is supported by the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector and the smelters' hoarding mentality due to the expected tight supply of raw materials. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is driven by the strong commodity sentiment and the improvement in fundamentals due to steel - mill production cuts. In the short term, it is expected to adjust in a strong - oscillation pattern, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 15,200 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the news from the ore end and the dynamics of steel mills [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market has shown a weak adjustment. Although the fundamentals show certain inventory - reduction resilience during the off - season, which supports prices, there may be a short - term decline adjustment. It is recommended to operate cautiously in the range of 155,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose 0.46% to 438,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open discount dropped 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - The import loss of tin increased 88.73% to - 10,909.52 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.88 [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the import of tin ore increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, and the production of SMM refined tin decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons [2]. - The import of refined tin increased 29.54% to 1,548 tons, and the export increased 41.84% to 2,763 tons [2]. Inventory - SHEF inventory increased 1.79% to 9,720 tons, and social inventory increased 4.94% to 10,678 tons [2]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 2.48% to 104,185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased 70 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [3]. - The import loss of copper decreased to - 106 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.77 [3]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and the import decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons [3]. Inventory - The domestic social inventory of copper decreased 2.24% to 32.28 million tons, and the SHFE inventory increased 5.82% to 22.59 million tons [3]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.20% to 25,290 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. - The import loss of zinc increased to - 2,443 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased slightly to 7.48 [5]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and the import decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [5]. Inventory - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased 1.35% to 11.72 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.57% to 11 million tons [5]. Industrial Silicon Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 33.67% to 325 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons [7]. Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased 0.36% to 55.40 million tons, and the warehouse - receipt inventory increased 2.89% to 6.83 million tons [7]. Polysilicon Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm decreased 6.13% to 1.53 yuan/piece [8]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of polysilicon increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and the import increased 77.50% to 0.19 million tons [8]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.47% to 24,860 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased 20 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina increased 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased 3.97% to 378.10 million tons [9]. Inventory - The Chinese electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased 5.25% to 78.20 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.45% to 49.8 million tons [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 1.66% to 24,550 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased 10.48% to 2,719 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [11]. Inventory - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 2.11% to 4.64 million tons, and the daily inventory in Foshan increased 0.33% to 30,343 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.30% to 148,000 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 6.82% to 7,050 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese refined nickel increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and the import increased 84.63% to 23,394 tons [12]. Inventory - SHFE inventory increased 5.43% to 50,794 tons, and social inventory increased 4.38% to 66,294 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased 58.54% to 82 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel decreased 26.72% to 131.59 million tons, and the import increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [14]. Inventory - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 0.82% to 45.77 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse - receipt inventory increased 9.90% to 4.36 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.33% to 168,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.37% to 164,500 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and the demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [17]. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market trading divergence is obvious, and there are initial signs of style switching. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce futures positions in a timely manner, and try to construct a bull spread strategy with put options on the CSI 300 Index [2]. - The yield further decline is blocked, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate faces significant resistance around 1.8%. It may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term, and the T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. Maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [2]. - Due to the sharp drop in US stocks and the resulting liquidity crunch, commodities "flash - crashed" and then rebounded. Gold ended its consecutive rise. It is recommended to take profits on gold long positions when the price is high, and use long - call options to replace long positions. For silver, maintain a light - long position when the price retraces. Temporarily observe the platinum market [2]. - The EC of container shipping oscillates upward. For steel products, the price of rebar and hot - rolled coil has certain reference ranges, and the long spread of hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held. For iron ore, short positions can be arranged when the price is around 800. For coking coal and coke, they are viewed as oscillating strongly, and a long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy can be adopted. Other non - ferrous metals also have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - For new energy products, industrial silicon oscillates upward, while polysilicon futures open high and close low, and lithium carbonate adjusts downward. Each has corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - For chemical products, different products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc. have different market situations and corresponding operation suggestions, mainly including observing, range - bound operations, and spread trading [2]. - For agricultural products, different products such as soybean meal, palm oil, sugar, etc. have different market trends and operation suggestions, including short - selling on rallies, long - holding, etc. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Equity Index Futures - The style of the equity index shows rotation, with the large - cap index leading the rise. There is a large outflow of broad - based ETFs, and the market trading divergence is obvious. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce futures positions in a timely manner, and try to construct a bull spread strategy with put options on the CSI 300 Index [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The current policy lacks new catalysts, and the yield further decline is blocked. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate faces significant resistance around 1.8%, and may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term. The T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. Maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy, and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival to prevent insufficient liquidity after the festival [2]. Precious Metals - After the sharp drop in US stocks and the resulting liquidity crunch, commodities "flash - crashed" and then rebounded. Gold ended its consecutive rise. It is recommended to take profits on gold long positions when the price is high, and use long - call options to replace long positions. For silver, maintain a light - long position when the price retraces. Temporarily observe the platinum market due to the easing of supply tension [2]. Shipping - The EC of container shipping oscillates upward [2]. Steel and Non - Ferrous Metals - Steel: Affected by market sentiment, the steel price strengthens. The rebar fluctuates in the range of 3000 - 3200, and the hot - rolled coil fluctuates in the range of 3150 - 3350. The long spread of hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held [2]. - Iron Ore: The steel mills' replenishment is realized, and the port inventory pressure continues to increase. Short positions can be arranged when the price is around 800 [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal and coke are viewed as oscillating strongly. The coking coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the Mongolian coal follows the disk fluctuation. The mainstream coking enterprises' price increase has been implemented. A long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy can be adopted [2]. - Other Non - Ferrous Metals: Each non - ferrous metal has its own market situation and operation suggestions, such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [2] New Energy - Industrial Silicon: Oscillates upward and opens an arbitrage window, with the main contract referring to the range of 8200 - 9200 [2]. - Polysilicon: The downstream demand is weak, and the polysilicon futures open high and close low. It is mainly in high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to observe [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The bullish factors fade, the market divergence intensifies, and the disk adjusts downward. The main contract refers to the range of 155,000 - 170,000, and cautious operations are recommended within the range [2]. Chemical Industry - Different chemical products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc. have different market situations and corresponding operation suggestions, mainly including observing, range - bound operations, and spread trading [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybean meal, palm oil, sugar, etc. have different market trends and operation suggestions, including short - selling on rallies, long - holding, etc. [2]

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1. Report's Core View - The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, spot references, and notes of various commodities on January 30, 2026, covering ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures [1]. 2. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5678, futures price is 5736, basis is - 58, basis rate is 11.01%, historical quantile is 49.90%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 5940, futures price is 5926, basis is 14, basis rate is 0.24%, historical quantile is 27.50%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 6517 silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3260, futures price is 3157, basis is 103, basis rate is 3.26%, historical quantile is 48.40%, and the spot reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3290, futures price is 3308, basis is - 18, basis rate is - 0.54%, historical quantile is 11.40%, and the spot reference is Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 844, futures price is 799, basis is 45, basis rate is 5.67%, historical quantile is 35.90%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian blended powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1713, futures price is 1723, basis is - 10, basis rate is - 0.61%, historical quantile is 58.20%, and the spot reference is the converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1156, futures price is 1165, basis is - 9, basis rate is - 0.77%, historical quantile is 30.50%, and the spot reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2603)**: Spot price is 104185, futures price is 109110, basis is - 4925, basis rate is - 4.51%, historical quantile is 0.20%, and the spot reference is the SMM electrolytic copper average price [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: Spot price is 24860, futures price is 25590, basis is - 730, basis rate is 2.85%, historical quantile is 0.41%, and the spot reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2625, futures price is 2816, basis is - 191, basis rate is - 6.77%, historical quantile is 5.94%, and the spot reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Spot price is 25220, futures price is 25950, basis is - 730, basis rate is 2.81%, historical quantile is 0.20%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 zinc ingot average price [1]. - **Tin (SN2603)**: Spot price is 438600, futures price is 446130, basis is - 7530, basis rate is 1.69%, historical quantile is 1.66%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - **Nickel (NI2603)**: Spot price is 144650, futures price is 147470, basis is - 2820, basis rate is 1.91%, historical quantile is 1.04%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Spot price is 14670, futures price is 14585, basis is 85, basis rate is 0.58%, historical quantile is 18.02%, and the spot reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 168000, futures price is 164820, basis is 3180, basis rate is 1.93%, historical quantile is 94.93%, and the spot reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Spot price is 9250, futures price is 8925, basis is 325, basis rate is 3.64%, historical quantile is 18.89%, and the spot reference is the SMM East China oxygen - passing Si5530 average price [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2604)**: Spot price is 1243.4, futures price is 1249.1, basis is - 5.7, basis rate is - 0.50%, historical quantile is 1.40%, and the spot reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - **Silver (AG2604)**: Spot price is 29998.0, futures price is 30891.0, basis is - 893.0, basis rate is 2.90%, historical quantile is 0.20%, and the spot reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3080, futures price is 2802.0, basis is 278.0, basis rate is 9.92%, historical quantile is 67.80%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of common protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price is 8710, futures price is 8382.0, basis is 328.0, basis rate is 3.91%, historical quantile is 61.10%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 9290, futures price is 9362.0, basis is - 72.0, basis rate is - 0.77%, historical quantile is 6.00%, and the spot reference is the delivery price of 24 - degree palm oil at Huangpu Port [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2480, futures price is 2325.0, basis is 155.0, basis rate is 6.67%, historical quantile is 76.60%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI605)**: Spot price is 10240, futures price is 9446.0, basis is 794.0, basis rate is 8.41%, historical quantile is 96.40%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Spot price is 2340, futures price is 2281.0, basis is 59.0, basis rate is 2.59%, historical quantile is 63.80%, and the spot reference is the flat - hatch price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Spot price is 2630, futures price is 2535.0, basis is 95.0, basis rate is 3.75%, historical quantile is 43.60%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin [1]. - **Live Pigs (H2603)**: Spot price is 12650, futures price is 11165.0, basis is 1485.0, basis rate is 13.30%, historical quantile is 85.00%, and the spot reference is the ex - farm price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Henan [1]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot price is 3960, futures price is 3021.0, basis is 939.0, basis rate is 31.08%, historical quantile is 90.30%, and the spot reference is the ex - farm price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price is 15600, futures price is 14910.0, basis is 690.0, basis rate is 4.63%, historical quantile is 24.70%, and the spot reference is the market price of cotton in Xinjiang [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5370, futures price is 5257.0, basis is 113.0, basis rate is 2.15%, historical quantile is 15.30%, and the spot reference is the spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station, with the origin of Guangxi [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9400, futures price is 9642.0, basis is - 242.0, basis rate is 2.51%, historical quantile is 14.10%, and the spot reference is the apple delivery theoretical price (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - **Jujubes (CJ605)**: Spot price is 8000, futures price is 8895.0, basis is - 895.0, basis rate is - 10.06%, historical quantile is 46.00%, and the spot reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX603)**: Spot price is 7373.0, futures price is 7380.0, basis is - 7.0, basis rate is - 0.09%, historical quantile is 29.40%, and the spot reference is the spot price (CFR) of para - xylene at the main Chinese port, converted into RMB [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price is 5265.0, futures price is 5332.0, basis is - 67.0, basis rate is 1.26%, historical quantile is 31.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in the East China region [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 3845.0, futures price is 3957.0, basis is - 112.0, basis rate is 2.83%, historical quantile is 15.40%, and the spot reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in the East China region [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF603)**: Spot price is 6705.0, futures price is 6720.0, basis is - 15.0, basis rate is - 0.22%, historical quantile is 37.70%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spinning)) in the East China market [1]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: Spot price is 8095.0, futures price is 7913.0, basis is 182.0, basis rate is 2.30%, historical quantile is 65.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price is 2282.0, futures price is 2352.0, basis is - 70.0, basis rate is 2.98%, historical quantile is 8.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price is 1780.0, futures price is 1817.0, basis is - 37.0, basis rate is 2.04%, historical quantile is 7.50%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in the Shandong region [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 6875.0, futures price is 7049.0, basis is - 174.0, basis rate is 2.47%, historical quantile is 0.80%, and the spot reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 6785.0, futures price is 6870.0, basis is - 85.0, basis rate is - 1.24%, historical quantile is 8.10%, and the spot reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (wire - drawing grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 4680.0, futures price is 4895.0, basis is - 215.0, basis rate is - 4.39%, historical quantile is 24.70%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Spot price is 1869.0, futures price is 1964.0, basis is - 95.0, basis rate is - 4.85%, historical quantile is 29.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - **LPG (PG2603)**: Spot price is 4848.0, futures price is 4348.0, basis is 500.0, basis rate is 11.50%, historical quantile is 68.40%, and the spot reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou region [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2603)**: Spot price is 3210.0, futures price is 3478.0, basis is - 268.0, basis rate is - 7.71%, historical quantile is 4.30%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of heavy - traffic asphalt in the Shandong region [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2603)**: Spot price is 13000.0, futures price is 13390.0, basis is - 390.0, basis rate is 2.91%, historical quantile is 4.60%, and the spot reference is the distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in East China by CNPC [1]. -