Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current log market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in future shipments, but the weak demand limits the upside potential. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction and limited upward and downward drivers, so the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On January 13th, the prices of log 2601, log 2603, log 2605, and log 2607 were 770.0, 774.5, 786.0, and 798.0 respectively. The price of log 2603 increased by 1.5 (0.19%), while log 2605 decreased by -0.5 (-0.06%) and log 2607 decreased by -1.5 (-0.19%) compared to January 12th. The main contract basis was -34.5, a decrease of 1.5 from the previous day [1] - Spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 13th compared to the previous day. The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the outer market also remained unchanged on January 16th [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 14th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.974, and the import theoretical cost was 755.52 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.28 yuan compared to January 13th [1] Supply: Monthly - In November, the port freight volume was 191.4 million cubic meters, a 1.16% increase compared to October. The number of ships at the port was 52.0, a 6.12% increase compared to the previous period [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 9th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 269 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared to January 2nd. In Shandong, the inventory was 196 million cubic meters, an increase of 1 million cubic meters [1] Demand - As of January 9th, the daily average log出库量 was 5.75 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. In Shandong, it decreased by 0.1 million cubic meters (-3%), while in Jiangsu, it increased by 0.18 million cubic meters (8%) [2] Forecast of Arrival - From January 12th - 18th, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week). The total arrival volume is about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters (59% week - on - week) [2]

股指期货持仓日度变动简评 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信多空头各加仓超千手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君空头加仓超千手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓明显上升 | 海通多空头各加仓 3000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多头减仓超 2000 手 | 1,785.0 2,024.0 3,885.0 -632.0 5,440.0 3,136.0 6,136.0 -2,000 -1,419.0 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Apple - Short - term, the apple futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory, and market activity increases with the approaching Spring Festival. Long - term, good - quality fruits are in short supply with firm prices, while high prices may suppress consumption, and the market share of ordinary apples is squeezed by other fruits, leading to high inventory pressure. The futures market shows a high - level shock with a near - strong and far - weak price pattern [1]. Red Dates - The current red date market has sufficient supply, with off - grade and finished products arriving at the sales areas. The overall market transaction is weak, and the consumption peak season is lackluster. Recently, the number of futures warehouse receipts has gradually increased. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the futures prices fluctuate within a range [3]. Oils and Fats - Palm oil shows a trend of rising and then falling due to rumors about Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Domestic palm oil may test the support at 8750 yuan. For soybean oil, the US market has a decrease in production but an increase in ending stocks, which is bearish. However, domestic soybean oil fundamentals are improving, but the rise is restricted by USDA and MPOB reports. Rapeseed oil is boosted by the strong performance of related external oils, but its upward momentum is limited due to expected trade - relation easing and global rapeseed harvest. There is a risk of it falling to 8900 yuan, while the spot price remains strong due to low inventory [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast region is still limited, and prices are strong before the Spring Festival. In the North China region, prices fluctuate slightly. The demand side has different inventory strategies for different enterprises, and policy - driven corn auctions are ongoing but with limited scale. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the downstream's need for stocking support prices, but policy - released corn restricts the increase. For corn starch, prices also show certain fluctuations [7]. Sugar - The market's focus is on Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane season starting in April. ICE raw - sugar futures have a slight increase due to the decline in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of December. The expected increase in the next - season's sugar - cane yield in Brazil and India's strong production, along with Thailand's slow - progress season, lead to a stable and fluctuating raw - sugar price in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the sugar price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [10]. Meal Products - USDA slightly raises the US soybean production and lowers exports, causing the US soybean inventory to rise and the market to correct. However, CBOT has strong support at around 1050 cents. In the domestic market, the supply is abundant, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is high, which suppresses the market. But the expected low - level arrival in the first quarter and the uncertainty of arrival time limit the downward space of soybean meal. The market maintains a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [12]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are relatively stable, supported by the USDA supply - demand report. The US cotton shows a decrease in both production and ending stocks in January compared to December. The drought index in the US cotton - producing areas is rising, and the export sales are declining, so US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Zhengzhou cotton has support from textile enterprises' rigid demand, but with increasing unfavorable factors such as compressed profits and expanding price differences between domestic and foreign cotton. The short - term cotton price may enter an adjustment period [14]. Live Pigs - The live - pig spot price has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, the market demand has significantly declined, with reduced supply in the North and a sharp drop in demand in the South, suppressing the price. Although there is still some second - fattening activity, the enthusiasm is limited. The overall supply in January is expected to be abundant, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [15]. Eggs - The egg supply is in an oversupply stage, with a slight decrease in the number of culled hens and a small increase in newly - laid hens. There is a structural difference in egg sizes. The demand is increasing due to the peak production season of food enterprises and the approaching Spring Festival, but the increase is mainly in the trade - link inventory turnover. After the recent price increase, there may be a short - term adjustment, but there is still a possibility of a small increase, with attention to the pressure level around 3100 [17]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - Futures prices: Apple 2605 (main contract) rose 1.55%, and Apple 2610 rose 0.81%. The basis decreased by 10.42%, and the 5 - 10 spread increased by 6.96%. - Market arrivals: The arrivals at several major fruit wholesale markets increased, with a 16.67% increase at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market. - Inventory and profit: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the factory - warehouse delivery profit increased [1]. Red Dates - Futures prices: Red date 2605 (main contract) fell 1.09%, and other contracts also showed declines. The 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased. - Spot prices: The prices of different - grade red dates in Cangzhou were relatively stable. The basis of Cangzhou's top - grade and first - grade red dates against the main contract increased. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.71%, and the effective forecast decreased by 15.25% [3]. Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.18%, the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.10%, and the basis increased by 21.77%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17%. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 2.89%, the futures price of P2605 increased by 0.62%, and the basis increased by 264.86%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.72%. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.55%, the futures price of OI605 increased by 0.41%, and the basis increased by 15.69%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 14.40% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The futures price of Corn 2603 decreased by 0.26%, the basis increased by 32.00%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 100.00%. The import cost from Brazil decreased by 3.38%, and the import profit increased by 37.80%. - Corn starch: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 decreased by 0.19%, the basis increased by 8.78%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 10.34% [7]. Sugar - Futures market: The futures prices of Sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw - sugar main contract decreased by 0.34%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 116.67%. - Spot market: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were stable. The basis in Nanning increased by 42.67%, and in Kunming, it increased by 58.18%. - Industry situation: The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased [10]. Meal Products - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.32%, the futures price of M2605 decreased by 1.04%, and the basis increased by 5.28%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - period crushing profit increased by 40.1%. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.42%, the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.69%, and the basis increased by 8.57%. The Canadian 3 - month shipping - period crushing profit increased by 2.87% [12]. Cotton - Futures market: The futures prices of Cotton 2605 and 2609 increased, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.71%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8.82%. - Spot market: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B decreased, while the FC Index M 1% increased. The basis differences between 3128B and futures contracts decreased. - Industry situation: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, and the textile - related export and retail data showed certain changes [14]. Live Pigs - Futures market: The futures price of Live Pig 2605 increased slightly, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 12.79%. The main - contract basis increased by 3.43%. - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 1.12%, and the white - strip price increased by 0.92% [15]. Eggs - Futures market: The futures prices of Egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased. The 3 - 4 spread decreased by 2.53%. - Spot market: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.77%, and the basis increased by 36.92%. - Related indicators: The egg - chicken - seedling price, egg - feed ratio, and breeding profit increased, while the culled - chicken price decreased [17].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月14日 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 历史1年分位数 | 品种 | 全历史分位数 | 展新值 | 较前一日变化 | F期现价差 | -2.43 | 13.48 | 57.20% | 82.70% | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 4.67 | 8.20 | 91.30% | 82.90% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -12.08 | 0.45 | 88.90% | 65,1096 | IM期现价差 | -42.73 | 35.17 | 80.00% | 38.30% | | 次月-当月 | -3.20 | 5.60 | 85.60% | 52.90% | 零月-当月 | -7.60 | 7.80 | 97.90% | 53.60% | 远月-当月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday, the steel futures market weakened with market sentiment, while the spot market remained stable. The industry showed little change, with a significant seasonal decline in apparent demand, mainly in rebar. Inventory is about to enter the off - season accumulation phase. Rebar's inventory pressure will increase in the future, while hot - rolled coil's inventory is decreasing. Before the Spring Festival, real - world demand is weak, but prices have already factored in the weak demand. The price of steel is pushed up by the strengthening of raw material prices recently, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in January. The reference range for rebar May contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures market was in high - level oscillation yesterday with a slight increase in positions. The spot market was relatively strong, but downstream steel mills still purchased on demand. In terms of fundamentals, the global iron ore shipment volume declined this period, and the shipment center will gradually decline after the end of the peak shipment season. The impact of weather on shipments is expected to be limited. On the demand side, the influence of steel mill maintenance on SMM increased slightly, and there is still room for the resumption of hot - metal production. The average hot - metal production in January is expected to be around 2.3 million tons. The export orders of finished products increased significantly, and demand is still supported. The port inventory increased significantly. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal production resumption below. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, both coke and coking coal futures showed a trend of rising and then falling. In the spot market, the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on January 1st, and the port price rebounded with the futures. The coke market is currently weakly stable. On the supply side, the adjustment of coke prices lags behind coking coal, and the coking profit is under pressure, but the start - up rate is increasing. On the demand side, the steel mill's losses and maintenance decreased, the hot - metal production increased steadily, and the steel price rebounded at a low level. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly at a medium level. In terms of policy, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants is still the main tone. The trading strategy is to go long on dips unilaterally and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures contract was in oscillation with a slight decline, and the 03 contract continued to reduce positions. The spot price fluctuated within a limited range, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. In terms of fundamentals, the ferrosilicon production was basically flat, reaching a historically low level. The hot - metal production continued to resume, and there is still some support for demand. The factory inventory decreased, and the cost was supported by the strong price of manganese ore. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support level of around 5500. The ferromanganese futures contract was also in oscillation, with supply at a historically neutral - low level. The hot - metal production continued to resume, and there is support for demand. The manganese ore price is expected to be supported by factors such as port inventory and shipping issues. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to go long on dips, with a support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3210, and 3280 respectively, with changes of - 10, 10, and - 10 compared to the previous day. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar were 3158, 3202, and 3134 respectively, with changes of 14, 6, and 45. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3280, 3190, and 3280 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 10. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coil were 3303, 3321, and 3280 respectively, with changes of 9, 3, and 25 [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2970 with no change, and the slab price was 3730 with no change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3232, up 16; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3223, up 2. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 27, up 13; the profit of North China rebar was - 107, up 3; the profit of South China rebar was 193, up 3 [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal production was 229.0, up 1.6 (0.7%) from the previous day. The production of five major steel products was 818.6, up 3.4 (0.4%); rebar production was 191.0, up 2.8 (1.5%); hot - rolled coil production was 305.5, up 1.0 (0.3%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1253.9, up 21.8 (1.8%); rebar inventory was 438.1, up 16.1 (3.8%); hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.1, down 2.8 (- 0.8%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 8.4, down 2.2 (- 20.9%); the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 796.8, down 44.2 (- 5.3%); the apparent consumption of rebar was 175.0, down 25.5 (- 12.7%); the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 308.3, down 2.4 (- 0.8%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mix fines, and Jinbuba fines were 878.4, 885.3, 884.1, and 922.0 respectively, with changes of - 13.1 (- 1.5%), - 2.2 (- 0.2%), - 2.2 (- 0.2%), and - 2.2 (- 0.2%) compared to the previous day. The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mix fines, and Jinbuba fines were 58.9, 0.8, 62.5, and 102.5 respectively, with changes of - 10.1 (- 14.6%), 65.0 (1.2%), 0.8 (1.4%), and 0.8 (0.8%). The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5, up 1.0 (4.9%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 74.7, down 31.0 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 2920.4, up 164.0 (5.9%); the global shipment volume (weekly) was 3213.7, down 32.8 (- 1.0%); the national monthly import volume was 11054.0, down 76.9 (- 0.7%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 227.4, up 2.1 (0.9%); the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume (weekly) was 325.2, down 1.9 (- 0.6%); the national monthly pig - iron production was 6234.3, down 320.6 (- 4.9%); the national monthly crude - steel production was 6987.1, down 212.6 (- 3.0%) [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) was 16275.26, up 304.4 (1.9%); the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 8989.6, up 43.0 (0.5%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 19.0, down 1.0 (- 5.0%) [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) was 2224, up 13; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) was 1745, up 22. The coke 05, 09 contracts were 1745, 1824 respectively, with changes of - 25 (- 1.4%) and - 20 (- 1.1%). The 05 - 09 spread was - 79, down 5 [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) was 1260 with no change; the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) was 1259, up 24 (1.9%). The coking coal 05, 09 contracts were 1191, 1268 respectively, with changes of - 47 (- 3.8%) and - 43 (- 3.2%). The JM05 - JM09 spread was - 77, down 5 [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants (weekly) was 62.7, up 0.9 (1.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.1 (0.1%); the raw - coal production was 853.4, down 2.7 (- 0.3%); the clean - coal production was 438.2, down 0.6 (- 0.1%) [6]. Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 229.5, up 2.1 (0.9%); the daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 63.6, up 0.9 (1.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.1 (0.1%) [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory was 915.7, up 0.2 (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 86.1, down 5.5 (- 6.0%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 645.7, up 1.7 (0.3%); the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1071.7, up 12.0 (1.2%); the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 797.7, down 4.5 (- 0.6%); the port inventory was 299.8, down 1.5 (- 0.5%) [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 5682.0, down 16.0 (- 0.3%); the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract was 5916.0, down 14.0 (- 0.2%). The spot prices of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu were 5350.0, 5300.0, 5320.0, and 5300.0 respectively, with no changes. The spot prices of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Ningxia, and Guizhou were 5750.0, 5850.0, 5650.0, and 5800.0 respectively, with increases of 50.0 (0.9%), 50.0 (0.9%), 0.0 (0.0%), and 50.0 (0.9%) [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5882.9, up 38.1 (0.7%); the production cost in Guangxi was 6236.3 with no change; the production cost in Qinghai was 5831.0 with no change; the production cost in Ningxia was 5433.0 with no change. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 132.9, up 11.9; the production profit in Ningxia was - 113.0 with no change [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon was 0.0, up 0.2 (0.2%); the weekly production of ferromanganese was 19.1, down 0.3 (- 1.4%). The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises (weekly) was 29.6, up 0.1 (0.3%); the operating rate of ferromanganese was 36.8, down 0.1 (- 0.2%) [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon (estimated by Steel Union) was 1.9, up 0.0 (0.1%); the weekly demand for ferromanganese (estimated by Steel Union) was 11.6, up 0.1 (0.7%). The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 229.5, up 2.1 (0.9%); the blast - furnace operating rate (weekly) was 79.3, up 0.4 (0.5%); the production of five major steel products (weekly) was 818.6, up 3.4 (0.4%) [7]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises (weekly) was 6.9, up 0.5 (7.1%); the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises (weekly) was 38.3, down 1.1 (- 2.8%). The average available days of ferrosilicon for downstream users (monthly) was 15.4, down 0.4 (- 2.5%); the average available days of ferromanganese inventory (monthly) was 16, up 0.1 (0.9%) [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and operation suggestions for various futures varieties, including trends such as A - share continuous upward movement, bond market marginal repair, and price fluctuations in multiple commodities [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Equity Index - A - shares continue to rise with increasing trading volume, and the trading sentiment is strong. It is recommended to hold the bull spread combination and consider constructing a covered combination on dips, focusing on risk control. Among them, the IC component is more in line with the main - line structure and performs better [3]. Treasury Bonds - After the previous adjustment, the duration of the trading positions in the bond market has been reduced, and the selling pressure has eased. Supported by the continuous loosening of the capital side, the bond market has shown a marginal repair. In the short - term, the bond market is still in a volatile situation, and the rebound of bond futures may be limited. The later trend depends on the fundamentals and government bond supply. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral strategy and tend to steepen the curve in the medium - term [3]. Precious Metals - Due to the uncertainty of the US domestic and foreign situations, the US dollar weakens and precious metals generally rise. Gold can be lightly held long above $4300, or sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver is recommended to hold long positions above $75, and platinum and palladium are recommended to be bought lightly on dips near the 20 - day moving average [3]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel inventory has reached the seasonal accumulation inflection point, and steel prices remain volatile. The iron ore supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, with prices in a wide - range shock. For coking coal, Shanxi coal prices rise more than fall, and it is recommended to go long on dips and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. After the fourth round of coke price cuts after New Year's Day, it stabilizes, and the same arbitrage strategy is applicable [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are at a high level, and downstream operating rates are weakening, so long positions should be held cautiously. Alumina has a short - term oversupply trend, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term. Aluminum prices continue to reach new highs, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. Zinc prices move up, and long positions can be held for long - term on dips. Tin prices hit the daily limit, and the previously bought call options can be held. Nickel prices rise sharply, and long positions should be appropriately reduced on rallies [3]. New Energy and Chemicals - Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended. PX has limited rebound space, and a low - level positive arbitrage strategy is recommended. PTA and short - fiber follow raw material fluctuations, and a low - level positive arbitrage strategy is also applicable. Ethanol is under upward pressure, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal is in a weak adjustment, and the USDA's increase in US soybean production puts pressure on beans. Pork demand declines after the festival, and the price is in a range - bound shock. Corn has strong downward support and shows a strong upward trend. The USDA report is negative for soybean oil in the short - term [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Red Dates - Current market supply is sufficient, pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, and overall market trading is light. Futures warehouse receipts are gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to the progress of social inventory reduction. In the short term, the fundamental situation has no obvious driving force, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [1]. 2.2 Apples - In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory. As the Spring Festival stocking season approaches, market activity has increased. In the medium to long term, high - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high - priced apples may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits may挤占 the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market will fluctuate at a high level, with near - term prices stronger than long - term prices [3][8]. 2.3 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures closed down, but the decline was limited by the weakening US dollar. The market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane crushing season starting in April. In India, production is strong, while Thailand's crushing season is progressing slowly. Overall, raw sugar prices will remain volatile in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, in line with market expectations. With the Spring Festival approaching, trading is acceptable, and enterprises are selling at market prices. Considering the expected increase in production, the market is cautious, and sugar prices are expected to remain volatile at a low level [10]. 2.4 Cotton - ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher. The January USDA supply - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lower production estimates. The drought index in the US cotton - growing areas is rising, but it is still early for sowing, and further observation is needed. USDA export sales have been declining, and export expectations may be revised downwards. US cotton is expected to remain volatile at a low level. Zhengzhou cotton is supported by the rigid demand of textile enterprises at low prices, but the unfavorable factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing. Overall, cotton prices may enter a period of adjustment in the short term [13]. 2.5 Corn - Snowfall in Northeast China has affected the supply of corn, and pre - festival stocking by some downstream enterprises has supported prices. The futures price increase has boosted market sentiment, and prices in production areas and northern ports are rising. In North China, the pace of grain sales is stable, and prices are fluctuating slightly. In terms of demand, deep - processing enterprises still have a willingness to replenish inventory, but their acceptance of high - priced corn is limited; feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are mainly replenishing inventory on a rolling basis. In terms of policy, the targeted auction of imported corn and the release of policy corn continue, but the scale is limited. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the rigid demand for stocking by downstream enterprises support the upward movement of corn prices [16][18]. 2.6 Oils - **Palm Oil**: After the release of the MPOB report, negative factors have been digested, and positive export data have supported the market. Crude palm oil futures may approach 4200 - 4250 ringgit. In the domestic market, affected by the rise of Malaysian palm oil and pre - festival stocking expectations, Dalian palm oil futures may continue to strengthen and approach 9000 yuan. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report is bearish, and CBOT soybeans may experience a correction after a period of stagnant growth. CBOT soybean oil may follow suit. In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory in factories is decreasing, but the USDA reports are negative for the market, and Dalian soybean oil may test the support level of 7900 yuan. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The limited increase in international crude oil has provided weak support for the domestic vegetable oil market. Concerns about future rapeseed oil supply due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China have led to a weakening sentiment. Rapeseed oil may maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. The basis price of rapeseed oil remains high due to the delay in the start - up of domestic crushing plants [19]. 2.7 Pigs - Spot prices have returned to a volatile pattern. After New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig farmers have reduced the number of pigs for sale, while southern demand has dropped significantly. Although there is still some restocking in local second - fattening, the enthusiasm is limited due to the relatively high current pig prices. The market expects an increase in supply in the future. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that pigs will be sold in mid - to late January, and the overall supply in January will be relatively loose. The upward space for the futures market is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [20][21]. 2.8 Eggs - On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profitability, leading to a decrease in farmers' willingness to cull laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to weather conditions, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. Overall, the supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and their procurement volume is increasing. With the Spring Festival approaching, the festival stocking plans of various links in the terminal consumer market have been gradually launched, and the willingness to purchase at low prices has increased. However, the procurement intensity of household consumption has not changed significantly, and the current increase in demand is mainly reflected in the inventory turnover of the trading links. After the recent price increase, the market has short - term digestion pressure and may experience a slight decline. Considering the overall loose supply, egg futures prices are expected to remain volatile at a low level [23]. 2.9 Meal - US soybeans are strongly influenced by capital and sentiment, and the market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report on Monday for new trading guidance. The domestic purchase of soybean cargoes is fast, and the supply in the domestic market will be continuously supplemented by US soybeans and reserve sales. The visit of Canada to China has sent positive signals, and the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, which has dragged down the domestic rapeseed meal market. The domestic spot market remains loose, and soybean and soybean meal inventories are still at a high level. There are also many expectations of auctions, which have put pressure on the market. Although the expected arrival of soybeans in the first quarter is low and the arrival rhythm is uncertain, the downward space for soybean meal is limited, and the upward movement is mainly affected by policy factors. The short - term market sentiment is positive, and the futures market will maintain a range - bound volatile pattern [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts have increased slightly, with increases of 0.11%, 0.05%, and 0.48% respectively. The 5 - 7 spread has increased by 11.11%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 21.88%. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates are 9490 yuan/ton, 8200 yuan/ton, and 7000 yuan/ton respectively. The special - grade red date price has decreased by 0.32%, and the first - and second - grade prices have remained unchanged. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 2820, an increase of 11.77%, and the number of valid forecasts is 472, a decrease of 23.25%. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 3292, an increase of 4.91% [1]. 3.2 Apples - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main contract) has decreased by 0.61%, and the price of the apple 2610 contract has increased by 0.11%. The basis has increased by 3.96%, and the 5 - 10 spread has decreased by 5.59%. - **Market Arrivals**: The arrivals at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao fruit wholesale markets have increased by 14.29%, 9.09%, and 12.50% respectively. - **Inventory and Profits**: The national cold - storage inventory has decreased by 1.73%, the factory - warehouse delivery profit has decreased by 4.38%, and the surface profit has decreased by 6.35% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 contracts have decreased by 0.06% and 0.15% respectively. The ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 0.47%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 45.45%. The main - contract position has decreased by 0.33%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 48.86%, and the number of valid forecasts has decreased by 42.38%. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5360 yuan/ton and 5230 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanning basis has decreased by 8.54%, and the Kunming basis has increased by 5.17%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota and out - of - quota) have decreased by 0.52%. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales have decreased by 16.43% and 37.18% respectively. The sugar production and sales in Guangxi have decreased by 29.42% and 40.96% respectively. The national and Guangxi sugar sales ratios have decreased by 24.77% and 23.20% respectively. The national industrial inventory has increased by 10.82%, the Guangxi industrial inventory has decreased by 5.55%, and the Yunnan industrial inventory has increased by 85.45%. Sugar imports have decreased by 16.98% [10]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 contracts have decreased by 0.34% and 0.44% respectively. The ICE US cotton main contract has increased by 0.12%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 8.11%. The main - contract position has decreased by 3.66%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 5.14%, and the number of valid forecasts has decreased by 4.57%. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton and the CC Index 3128B have decreased by 0.52% and 0.46% respectively. The FC Index M 1% has remained unchanged. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory has increased by 23.5%, the industrial inventory has decreased by 0.2%, the import volume has increased by 33.3%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days have decreased by 4.6%, the grey - cloth inventory days have increased by 4.4%, the spinning - enterprise C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 3.6%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 4.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of the month has decreased by 44.4%, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has increased by 9.0%, the year - on - year growth rate of the month has increased by 110.8%, the export value of clothing and clothing accessories has increased by 5.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate has increased by 31.4% [13]. 3.5 Corn - **Futures Market**: The price of the corn 2603 contract has increased by 1.19%, the 3 - 7 spread has increased by 115.38%. The price of the corn starch 2603 contract has decreased by 1.22%, and the 3 - 7 spread has increased by 38.30%. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price has increased by 0.43%, the Shekou Port market price has increased by 0.41%. The north - south trading profit has decreased by 1000.00%, and the import profit has decreased by 18.58%. The average price of corn starch has increased by 0.04%. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants have decreased by 21.96%. The corn position has increased by 3.99%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 4.16%. The corn starch position has increased by 1.46%, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [16]. 3.6 Oils - **Futures Market**: The price of the Y2605 soybean oil contract has decreased by 0.35%, the P2605 palm oil contract has increased by 0.48%, and the OI605 rapeseed oil contract has decreased by 0.69%. The soybean - palm oil spread, soybean - rapeseed oil spread, and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread have changed to varying degrees. - **Spot Market**: The prices of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu, 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, and third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu have decreased by 0.35%, 0.35%, and 1.02% respectively. - **Inventory and Profits**: The soybean oil inventory in China has decreased, the palm oil inventory in China has changed, and the rapeseed oil inventory in China has changed. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port have changed [19]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig 2605 contract has increased by 3.10%, the 2603 contract has decreased by 0.41%, and the 3 - 5 spread has increased by 3.37%. The main - contract basis is 1165, and the main - contract position has increased by 0.84%. The number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hebei, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume has decreased by 0.09%, the white - strip price has remained unchanged, the piglet price has increased by 6.45%, the sow price has increased by 0.03%, the slaughter weight has decreased by 0.09%, the self - breeding profit has increased by 66.64%, the purchased - piglet breeding profit has increased by 95.22%, and the number of fertile sows has decreased by 1.12% [20][21]. 3.8 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the egg 03 and 04 contracts have decreased by 0.66% and 0.57% respectively. The basis has increased by 59.63%, and the 3 - 4 spread has decreased by 0.36%. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price has increased by 3.21%, the egg - chicken chick price has increased by 3.57%, the culled - chicken price has increased by 3.29%, the egg - feed ratio has increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit has increased by 18.01% [23]. 3.9 Meal - **Futures Market**: The price of the M2605 soybean meal contract has increased by 0.14%, the RM2605 rapeseed meal contract has decreased by 0.34%, the price of the soybean - one main contract has decreased by 0.50%, and the price of the soybean - two main contract has increased by 0.09%. The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread, rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread, oil - meal ratio, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread have changed to varying degrees. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jiangsu soybean meal, Jiangsu rapeseed meal, Harbin soybeans, and Jiangsu imported soybeans have changed to varying degrees. - **Inventory and Profits**: The number of soybean meal warehouse receipts has remained unchanged, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has remained unchanged, the number of soybean warehouse receipts has decreased by 1.01%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - date import crushing profit has increased by 32.4%, and the Canadian 3 - month shipping - date import crushing profit has remained unchanged [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the impact of news weakens, the market will maintain a relatively strong shock. The short - term uncertainty of the market is high. Gold can maintain a light - long position above $4300 or sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value [1] - For silver, due to the intensification of global inventory shortages and the large - scale increase of spot by institutional long - funds through ETFs and physical delivery, the price is running strongly, and the price center is expected to move up continuously. However, rising raw material costs may suppress industrial demand. After the impact of the global commodity index rebalancing is basically digested, it is recommended to hold long - positions above $75 and operate cautiously on one side under high - volatility risks [1] - Platinum and palladium have a strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals, and the price is still undervalued compared with gold. Driven by funds, their value is being reshaped, and they are expected to continue to rise in the medium and long - term. In the short - term, market speculation has weakened and fluctuations have narrowed. But with the strong external market, it is recommended to buy platinum and palladium lightly on dips near the 20 - day moving average [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Domestic Futures Closing Prices - The AU2602 contract closed at 1026.28 yuan/gram on January 12, up 1.97% from January 9; the AG2604 contract closed at 20945 yuan/kilogram, up 11.82%; the PT2606 contract closed at 622.80 yuan/gram, up 3.83%; the PD2606 contract closed at 499.05 yuan/gram, up 1.21% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at $4518.40 per ounce on January 12, up 2.00% from January 9; the COMEX silver主力 contract had a certain increase; the NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at $2361.30 per ounce, up 3.67%; the NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at $1911.50 per ounce, up 2.00% [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at $4509.02 per ounce, up 1.99%; London silver was at a price with a 6.54% increase; spot platinum was at $2374.00 per ounce, up 4.03%; spot palladium was at $1851.00 per ounce, up 0.98%; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1022.12 yuan/gram, up 1.91%; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 20902 yuan/kilogram, up 11.42%; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 613 yuan/gram, up 3.39% [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 4.16 with a certain historical 1 - year quantile; the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 43; the basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 10.24; the basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.14 [1] Ratio of Precious Metals - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 54.12, down 4.43%; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 53.73, down 8.81%; the NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, up 1.63%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.23, up 2.59% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.2%; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.54%, unchanged; the 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.90%, unchanged; the US dollar index was 98.89, down 0.24%; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9687, down 0.10% [1] Inventory and Position - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,653 kilograms, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 649,643 kilograms, up 4.74%; the COMEX gold inventory was 36,311,918 ounces, unchanged; the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.51%; the COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts decreased by 0.52%; the COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1.23%; the SPDR gold ETF position increased by 0.59%; the SLV silver ETF position increased by 0.24% [1]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the CSI 1000 Index, the previous week's strategy of holding a bull spread combination was profitable, with a portfolio price increase of +123.09% from December 29th to January 9th, mainly due to a +7.03% weekly increase in the CSI 1000 Index [4]. - For lithium carbonate, the current week's strategy suggests considering buying an out - of - the - money put option LC2605 - P - 138000 and selling an at - the - money put option LC2605 - P - 144000 to construct a bull spread combination, as the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Underlying Weekly Trading Overview - This week, most underlying assets in the stock index, precious metals, black, and non - ferrous sectors rose. The CSI 1000 Index in the stock index sector had a relatively large increase of 7.03%, and lithium carbonate in the special commodity sector had the largest increase of 18.88%, while polysilicon had a significant decline of - 10.50% [9]. - In terms of trading volume, the attention to the stock index sector increased this week, with the average daily trading volume of the SSE 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index increasing by nearly 40% month - on - month. In the agricultural product sector, the average daily trading volume of eggs and rapeseed meal increased significantly, by +92.04% and +56.36% respectively. However, the average daily trading volume of gold in the precious metals sector, staple fiber in the energy and chemical sector, and polysilicon in the special commodity sector decreased significantly, by - 49.35%, - 37.66%, and - 36.55% respectively [10]. - In terms of 20 - day HV, nickel and polysilicon had the largest increases, +17.94% and +11.19% respectively compared to last week, while the 20 - day HV of rapeseed meal in the agricultural product sector decreased significantly, by - 15.98% [10]. 3.2 Option Contract Weekly Trading and Position - holding Overview - The average daily trading volume of options such as industrial silicon (+178.01%), palm oil (+146.05%), SSE 50 Index (+135.36%), soybean oil (+118.95%), and crude oil (+113.73%) increased significantly month - on - month, while the trading volume of p - xylene, staple fiber, and options in the precious metals sector decreased significantly [14]. - Among all sectors, the average daily trading PCR of options such as the SSE 50 Index, live pigs, alumina, and ethylene glycol was below 50% and remained in a historically low range, while the average daily position - holding PCR of options such as silver, rapeseed meal, tin, iron ore, p - xylene, and lithium carbonate exceeded 100% [14]. 3.3 Option Main At - the - Money IV Overview - Most option underlying IVs increased month - on - month this week. The main at - the - money IV of aluminum increased the most, by 55.79%, and the implied volatility reached the maximum in the past year. A large number of underlying assets in the agricultural product, non - ferrous, and energy and chemical sectors had IVs that exceeded the 90% historical quantile [20]. 3.4 Key Data of Main Varieties - For the SSE 50, the latest closing price was 3134.32, the total option trading volume was 290435900 billion yuan, the trading volume PCR was 0.4, the position - holding volume PCR was 0.7, the variety IV was 18.12%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 12.29%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.79% [25]. - For the CSI 300, the latest closing price was 4758.92, the total option trading volume was 1293497440 billion yuan, the trading volume PCR was 0.44, the position - holding volume PCR was 0.74, the variety IV was 18.73%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 13.83%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.13% [31]. - For the CSI 1000, the latest closing price was 8129.18, the total option trading volume was 7091377440 billion yuan, the trading volume PCR was 0.7, the position - holding volume PCR was 1.24, the variety IV was 22.92%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 16.38%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.39% [33]. - For gold, the latest closing price was 1006.48, the total option trading volume was 673868800 billion yuan, the trading volume PCR was 0.55, the position - holding volume PCR was 0.65, the main at - the - money IV was 21.44%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 17.42%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.08% [39]. - For silver, the latest closing price was 18731, the total option trading volume was 3542818200 billion yuan, the trading volume PCR was 0.89, the position - holding volume PCR was 1.58, the main at - the - money IV was 66.07%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 58.13%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 49.26% [42]. - Similar data are provided for other varieties such as cotton, rapeseed meal, etc. in the document [48][74]