Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by macro - factors such as the nomination of the new Fed chairman, leading to a weakening of market sentiment. Different industries show different trends, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, and some being affected by seasonal factors and cost - related factors. - For specific industries, there are differences in supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For example, some industries are in a state of supply - demand double - weakness, while others have a better supply - demand relationship. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Ethylene Glycol**: In February, MEG faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with short - term supply - demand being weak and long - term improving. The price is under pressure above. EG2605 is expected to oscillate between 3700 - 4100. Attention should be paid to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity at low levels, and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 at high levels [2]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: It maintains inventory reduction, and the price drops. Pay attention to short - term long opportunities at low prices. The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and the long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held. Consider short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at 3250 [3]. - **Meal Products**: The supply is loose throughout the February market. The market may maintain a downward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [4]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The risk appetite has significantly decreased, and the A - share market has declined under pressure. Suggest to control portfolio risks and wait for stability, and hold bilateral call option positions [5][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market shows a differentiated trend, with ultra - long bonds being relatively strong. The 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may oscillate between 108 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies suggest interval operations, and curve strategies suggest narrowing the spread between ultra - long bonds and other varieties. Investors are advised to arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - The market has fallen sharply, and precious metals have erased last month's gains. Gold can be considered to buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options after the market stabilizes. Silver prices may fluctuate greatly between 70 - 110 dollars, and it is recommended to wait and see. Platinum and palladium are expected to enter a consolidation stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [10][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC disk oscillates downward. In the medium - to - long - term, the price is in a downward range. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [14]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The expectation of balance - sheet reduction and the pressure on risk appetite have led to a decline in copper prices from high levels. In the short term, the price may return to fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract paying attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [15][18]. Alumina - The alumina market is in a wide - range oscillation around the industry cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at the lower price limit and short unilaterally at high prices [18][20]. Aluminum - The aluminum price has a high - volatility characteristic in the short term. It is recommended to make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases, and pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23500 [21][23]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level range oscillation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to use the strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 for arbitrage [24][26]. Zinc - The zinc price has fallen from high levels. The price has support below, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 24000. Adopt a short - term wait - and - see strategy and a long - term long - at - low strategy [27][31]. Tin - The tin price has fallen by the limit. In the short term, it is recommended to participate cautiously, and in the long - term, maintain a long - at - low strategy [31][34]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to first decline with the macro - situation and then oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 128000 - 140000. It is recommended to operate within the range [35][37]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 13200 - 14500. Pay attention to macro changes and steel - mill dynamics [38][40]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to continue to decline and adjust in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the risk of going long unilaterally on the left side is relatively large [41][44]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the post - Spring Festival order recovery and production - capacity regulation [46][47]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [48][49]. Ferrous Metals Steel - The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held. Consider short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at 3250 [50][51]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to try short positions, but be vigilant against macro and market - sentiment disturbances [52][55]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is expected to be in a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1050 - 1250. It is recommended to use the strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke for arbitrage [56][60]. Coke - The coke price is expected to be in a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1600 - 1800. It is recommended to use the strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke for arbitrage [61][63]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price is expected to oscillate widely. Pay attention to the macro - sentiment disturbance and the February pricing of HBIS [64][66]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese - silicon price is expected to oscillate widely, with the reference range of 5600 - 6000. Pay attention to the macro - sentiment disturbance [67][70]. Agricultural Products Meal Products - The supply is loose throughout the February market. The market may maintain a downward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [71][72]. Live Pigs - The spot price may be supported in the short term, but the futures market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillation pattern [73][74]. Corn - The corn price has fallen due to increased supply. The decline space is limited, and attention should be paid to the subsequent grain - selling rhythm and policy - release intensity [75][76]. Sugar - The raw - sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level. The domestic market is expected to oscillate around the previous high of 5300. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [77]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 14500 [79]. Eggs - The egg price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [81][82]. Oils and Fats - The vegetable - oil sector has fallen generally. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and market - sentiment impacts [83][85]. Jujubes - The jujube price is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - building trend [87][89]. Apples - The apple price is affected by the inventory situation. Pay attention to the post - festival inventory situation [90][91]. Energy and Chemicals PX - The PX price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 7000 - 7100, and consider low - long opportunities after the market stabilizes [92][93]. PTA - The PTA price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 5000 - 5100, and consider low - long opportunities after the market stabilizes. Also, consider the positive spread of TA5 - 9 at low levels [94]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price follows the raw - material price. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA, and reduce the spread when the processing fee is high [95][96]. Bottle Chips - The bottle - chip price is expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA, and reduce the spread when the processing fee of the main contract is high. Also, sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 at high levels [97][98]. Ethylene Glycol - In February, MEG faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with short - term supply - demand being weak and long - term improving. The price is under pressure above. EG2605 is expected to oscillate between 3700 - 4100. Attention should be paid to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity at low levels, and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 at high levels [99][100]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [101]. Styrene - The styrene price is under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [102][103]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price has fallen, and the trading is weak. It is recommended to stop the previous long positions and wait and see [104][105]. PP - The PP price is in a state of supply - demand double - weakness and oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see [105]. Methanol - The methanol price has fallen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, and the previous long positions have been stopped [106]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda price is expected to be weakly stable. Pay attention to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [107][108]. PVC - The PVC price is expected to be stable in the short term. Pay attention to the post - festival supply pressure and downstream demand [109][110]. Urea - The urea price is expected to be weakly oscillating. Pay attention to the factory's pre - festival order - receiving strategy and the release rhythm of agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand [111][112]. Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of 1150 - 1250. Pay attention to the post - festival production - line changes and downstream glass - industry start - up situation [113][115]. Glass - The glass price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of 1000 - 1100. Pay attention to the post - festival production - line and inventory changes and macro - policies [114][116]. Natural Rubber - The natural - rubber price has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see, considering the support from the overseas production - reduction period [116][120]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic - rubber price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the support of BR2604 at 12500 [120][122].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report recommends mid - term unilateral long positions in cotton and PX futures. For cotton, on January 30th, it triggered the RCMS model's negative - correlation long - opening signal, and the technical analysis shows potential upward movement. For PX, it also triggered the same signal on January 30th, with favorable technical indicators [4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory 01 Multi - factor Strategy Tracking - **Strategy Introduction**: It is a multi - factor strategy constructed based on multi - dimensional correlations. It uses the Pearson correlation coefficient formula to calculate the correlation coefficients and volatilities between the net positions of multiple - dimension seats and the prices of varieties, and builds a multi - factor strategy model. The average investment cycle for a single variety is medium - to long - term, with most varieties having a holding period of 1 to 12 months. The investment scope covers all futures market varieties [14] - **Open Positions - Cotton**: Multiple key seats and the top ten and top twenty total net positions show a high negative correlation with the price trend. According to the RCMS multi - factor model's opening signal, a long - opening trading strategy is implemented. Technically, the monthly K - line chart of cotton weighted has continuously broken through and stood above the 5 - and 13 - period SMMA moving averages, and the current price is at a medium - low historical level with greater upward potential [15][19][21] - **Open Positions - PX**: Key seat A and the top ten and top twenty total net positions show a high negative correlation with the price trend. According to the RCMS multi - factor model's opening signal, a long - opening trading strategy is implemented. Technically, the weekly K - line chart of PX weighted has continuously broken through and stood above the 5, 13, and 34 - period SMMA moving averages, and the current trend is in a continued oscillating uptrend of the moving - average long arrangement [22][26][28] - **Strategy Performance**: Since the strategy is a new simulated account established on the last trading day of January, there is no data on net value, return rate, volatility, maximum drawdown, and Sharpe ratio yet. The current strategy holding position is 10% [29] 02 Main Varieties and Seat Correlations - **Financial Sector - Stock Index**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of IC top ten total, IM seat A, IF seat A, and IC seat A over time [32][33][35][37] - **Financial Sector - Precious Metals**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Shanghai Silver seat A and PT seat A over time [41][42] - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Shanghai Copper**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Shanghai Copper's top twenty total, top ten total, top five total, and seat A over time [44][45][46][48] - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Shanghai Aluminum**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum's top twenty total, seat A, seat B, and seat C over time [52][53][54][58] - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Lithium Carbonate**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Lithium Carbonate's seat A, seat B, and seat C over time [61][62][63][64] - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Shanghai Nickel**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Shanghai Nickel's seat A, seat B, seat C, and seat D over time [66][67][69][70] - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Shanghai Tin**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Shanghai Tin's seat A, seat B, and seat C over time [74][75][76][77] - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Shanghai Zinc and Shanghai Lead**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Shanghai Zinc's seat A and seat B, and Shanghai Lead's seat A over time [79][80][83] - **Black Metals Sector - Iron Ore, Stainless Steel, and Manganese Silicon**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Iron Ore seat A, Stainless Steel seat A, and Manganese Silicon seat A over time [87][88][90][91] - **Energy and Chemicals Sector - Methanol**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Methanol's top five total, seat A, and top ten total over time [93][94][96][99] - **Agricultural Products - Corn, Starch, Live Pigs, and Sugar**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Corn's top five total, Starch's top twenty total, Live Pigs seat A, and Sugar seat A over time [100][101][104][105] - **Agricultural Products - Rapeseed Oil, Rapeseed Meal, and Soybean No.1**: It shows the net position changes and closing prices of Rapeseed Oil seat A and seat B, Rapeseed Meal's top twenty total, and Soybean No.1 seat A over time [106][107][108][112]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In January, both supply and demand weakened slightly, and this trend continued in February. It is expected that both production and demand will decline significantly. This is due to production cut plans of major industrial silicon and polysilicon producers, fewer production days in February, and early holidays during the Spring Festival [4]. - In February, spot trading is expected to weaken, and the window for futures trading is short. Supply of industrial silicon is expected to further decline. A large - scale enterprise in Xinjiang plans to cut production by half starting from the end of January, which may lead to a reduction of about 5 - 6 million tons in February [4][8]. - Demand is likely to continue to decline in February, but the month - on - month change is small. Polysilicon production is expected to drop to 8 - 8.5 million tons, and organic silicon production is expected to be about 17 - 18 million tons [4]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the decline in industrial silicon production and changes in demand - side production [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot and Futures Price Trends - In January, industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. As of January 30, 2026, the price of East China oxygen - containing Si5530 was 9,250 yuan/ton, Si4210 was 9,650 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous period [16][17]. - Spot prices were stable, while futures showed a strong - oscillating trend. At the end of January, the spot - futures arbitrage space opened up [27]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - In December, industrial silicon production decreased slightly to 3.971 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to December 2025 was 42.678 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Production in January and February is expected to decline further. A large enterprise in Xinjiang plans to cut production by half, which may lead to a reduction of about 5 - 6 million tons in February [40]. - The total production of four regions was 55,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 595 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2,150 tons. Xinjiang's production decreased by 600 tons [42][46]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - In January, the average spot price of polysilicon decreased, and the price difference between rod - shaped silicon and granular silicon widened. In February, polysilicon production is expected to be further reduced to 8.2 - 8.5 million tons [55]. - In January, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 5% to over 44GW, and inventory increased by 4.1GW to 27.29GW. Silicon wafer prices decreased, while battery and component prices increased [56][62]. - In January, organic silicon production is expected to decrease by more than 1 million tons, and continue to decline in February. The average price of DMC rose to 13,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton [69][74]. - The operating rates of aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy fluctuated and declined, and prices increased following the aluminum price. In January, aluminum alloy production is expected to increase slightly, while exports declined [80][87]. - In December, exports increased by 8% month - on - month to 59,000 tons, and the export volume of primary polysiloxane of organic silicon was 51,300 tons [94]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - The prices of silica and Xinjiang clean coal decreased by 3% and 13% respectively, while the prices of petroleum coke and Ningxia clean coal increased by 20% and 9% respectively [99]. - Electricity prices are expected to remain high during the dry season from January to February [101]. - The cost of Si5530 is about 9,800 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the cost of Si4210 is about 10,100 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Profits fluctuate around the break - even point, with high - cost producers incurring losses and low - cost producers making profits [109][115]. 5. Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - In January, industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,424 lots to 13,655 lots, equivalent to 68,000 tons. Social inventory decreased by 300,000 tons to 5.54 million tons, factory inventory increased by 660,000 tons to 2.09 million tons, and the total inventory was about 8.3 million tons [123].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: In January, affected by the low - price area in Shandong, the prices of caustic soda in surrounding provinces and cities declined. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong in January was 656.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.97%. In February, the supply - demand contradiction of domestic caustic soda remained prominent. It was expected that the caustic soda price would run weakly before the Spring Festival [3]. - **PVC**: In January, the supply - demand pattern of PVC was weak. The price increase was mainly due to policy stimulus. In February, the PVC industry faced the pressure of pre - Spring Festival shipments. The price was expected to maintain a weak bottom - shock in the first half of the month and gradually stabilize in the second half [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price**: In January, the average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 656.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.97%. In Jiangsu, it was 771.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.38% [3]. - **Supply**: In January, the caustic soda production was 379.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. The inventory in East China and Shandong decreased [24]. - **Demand**: In February, non - aluminum demand slowed down during the Spring Festival. Although the demand for alumina was relatively stable, it could not substantially support the demand for caustic soda [3]. - **Export**: In December 2025, the import volume of liquid caustic soda was 62.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 225.8% and a month - on - month increase of 40.7%. The export volume was 30.96 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3% [49]. PVC - **Price**: In January, the PVC price was mainly driven by policy stimulus. In February, the price was expected to have limited increase, with a weak bottom - shock in the first half and a potential stabilization in the second half [3]. - **Supply**: In January, the PVC production was estimated to be 214.71 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.42%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.98%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [68]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure. The real - estate sector continued to have a negative impact on demand. The domestic demand did not improve significantly [73]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory was still at the highest level in recent years [81]. - **Export**: In December 2025, the PVC export volume was 31.41 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.07% and a year - on - year increase of 35.02%. The import volume was 2.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.14% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99% [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, tin prices are vulnerable to market sentiment, geopolitical situations, and short - term supply - demand changes, with intensified fluctuations and high risks. It's recommended that investors participate cautiously to avoid sharp volatility. In the long - term, the core support for the upward shift of tin prices remains solid, and it's advisable to wait for market sentiment to stabilize or prices to have a reasonable correction and then adopt a strategy of going long on dips. [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Affected by the retreat of US technology stocks and the rising expectation of Fed tightening, tin prices dropped significantly from the night session on January 29th. As of February 2nd, the main contract of Shanghai tin hit the 11% daily limit down to 392,650 yuan/ton. [1] 3.2 Driving Factors 3.2.1 Impact of US Technology Stocks and Fed Expectations - Microsoft's Q4 2025 earnings report showed that huge capital expenditures in AI infrastructure, model training, and cloud services did not lead to significant revenue growth. This concern hit the high - valuation logic of technology stocks, especially AI concept stocks. Microsoft's stock price plunged over 10% on January 30th, with a single - day market value evaporation of about $420 billion. [2] - The news that Kevin Warsh will be nominated as the next Fed Chairman on January 29th, and the official announcement by Trump on January 30th. Warsh is a "hawk" on monetary policy. The expectation of his taking office led to the anticipation of accelerated global dollar liquidity tightening, causing a sell - off in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. [3] 3.2.2 Supply Recovery in Myanmar - From November to December 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar increased significantly year - on - year. In November, imports were 7,190.21 physical tons (about 1,636.05 metal tons), with a month - on - month increase of 89.94% and a year - on - year increase of 92.16%. In December, imports were 6,205.43 physical tons (1,342.37 metal tons), a 17.95% month - on - month decrease but a 183.32% year - on - year increase. [5] - The recovery of Myanmar's supply eased the tight domestic tin ore supply, and the processing fees of smelters increased. As of February 2nd, the processing fee of 40% tin concentrates in Yunnan rose to 14,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi also rose to 10,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. [6] 3.3 Future Outlook - In the long - term, the upward shift of tin prices is supported by three factors: long - term rigid constraints on the supply side (low global tin ore reserve - to - production ratio, supply disruptions in major producing areas, limited new large - scale mining projects, and rising mining costs); profound changes in the demand structure (the "AI arms race" boosting the demand for high - end semiconductor packaging and electronic soldering materials); and the re - evaluation of the strategic value of tin due to global technological competition and industrial chain security concerns. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Nickel - Refined nickel prices are high, stimulating production, but demand is weak. The nickel - iron market has a large psychological price gap between supply and demand, and transactions are weak. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and downstream purchases of nickel - sulfate are limited. Social inventories are accumulating. Overall, nickel prices are expected to fall first and then fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [2]. Stainless Steel - Stainless - steel futures have large fluctuations. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Steel mills are reducing production, and social inventories are slightly accumulating. The market is expected to be in a shock - adjustment state in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan/ton [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market was weak last week. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is relatively optimistic. Social inventories are being depleted, and upstream inventories are low. The price is expected to remain in a relatively strong range, but may fall in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [8]. Copper - In the long - term, copper supply is restricted by capital expenditure, and demand is increasing due to AI - related grid upgrades, so the bottom price is expected to rise. In the short - term, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing under the narrowing of CL premium. Attention should be paid to CL premium changes and downstream demand, with the main contract support at 101,500 - 103,000 yuan/ton [9]. Zinc - Zinc ore shortages support prices. Although zinc ore port inventories are accumulating, smelter profits are under pressure, and demand is suppressed by high prices. The overall fundamentals are good, and the price downside is limited, with the main contract support at 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices fluctuate greatly due to market sentiment. In the long - term, due to the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy is recommended [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has high price fluctuations. The cost is the main driving factor, and the supply - demand is seasonally weak. It is expected that the ADC12 price will fluctuate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [15]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices have risen sharply, driven by macro - factors and geopolitical risks, but have deviated from fundamentals. High prices suppress downstream demand, and inventories are increasing. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and volatility decline before going long, with price support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon weakened slightly, and it will continue in February. Supply is expected to decline further. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to demand changes [17]. Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand of polysilicon are weak. Production is expected to decrease, and the inventory accumulation slope is slowing down. The 45,000 yuan/ton level is expected to have support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.25% to 146,150 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of futures decreased by 515.79% to - 1,638 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price decreased by 0.69% to 14,400 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference increased by 405.88% to 430 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 4.46% to 160,500 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 286.79% to 12,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 104,410 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 45.25% to 3,631 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.98% to 25,790 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 317 yuan/ton to - 2,126 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.27% to 428,650 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 4.65% to - 10,538.60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.81% to 24,350 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan broken primary aluminum increased by 16.73% to 3,174 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.80% to 24,660 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss increased by 302.8 yuan/ton to - 1,779 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 183.33% to - 75 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 2.29% to 51,300 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 31.44% to 4,160 yuan/ton [18]. Month - to - Month Price Difference - **Nickel**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 390 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 155 yuan/ton to - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2602 - 2603 increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 1,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: 2602 - 2603 increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: AL 2602 - 2603 increased by 245 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract increased by 1.88% to 8,955 yuan/ton; the difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 775 yuan/ton to - 1,230 yuan/ton [18]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production increased by 26.10% to 31,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 9.06% to 25,396 tons [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.92% to 176.32 million tons; 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.82% to 45.77 million tons [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 99,200 tons; total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 64,560 tons [8]. - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 6.85% to 67.33 million tons [9]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons; China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.35% to 11.72 million tons [13]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports remained unchanged at 17,637 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 7.70% to 10,468 tons [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons; recycled aluminum alloy weekly social inventory decreased by 2.11% to 4.64 million tons [15]. - **Aluminum**: In January, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 738.56 million tons; China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.25% to 78.2 million tons [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons; social inventory decreased by 0.36% to 55.4 million tons [17]. - **Polysilicon**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons; polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 33.3 million tons [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver prices may fluctuate greatly in the range of $70 - 110 due to factors such as regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment. Before the holiday, institutional ETFs continued to reduce positions and wait and see, leading to a decline in liquidity. It is recommended to wait for market volatility to fall and use methods such as selling options for unilateral positions to lock in risks [1] - Platinum prices will enter a consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait for the market to adjust in place before trying to buy or conduct short - term high - selling and low - buying operations [1] - Due to short - term news and capital sentiment, the volatility risk is relatively large. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Gold can be allocated to buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options instead of going long after the market stabilizes. Light - position participation in long gold - silver ratio arbitrage is also recommended [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1161.42 yuan/gram on January 30, down 87.70 yuan or 7.02% from January 29 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 27941 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2950 yuan or 9.55% from January 29 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 714.10 on January 30, up 19.30 or 2.78% from January 29 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 526.60 yuan/gram on January 30, up 22.60 or 4.48% from January 29 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4907.50 on January 30, down 503.30 or 9.30% from January 29 [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 85.25 on January 30, down 30.54 or 26.37% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2178.20 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 458.70 or 17.40% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1701.00 on January 30, down 334.00 or 16.41% from January 29 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4880.03 on January 30, down 497.13 or 9.25% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 85.26 on January 30, down 30.61 or 26.42% from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 2300.00 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 492.00 or 17.62% from the previous value [1] - Spot rhodium was at 1820.00 on January 30, down 286.00 or 13.58% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1163.99 yuan/gram on January 30, down 79.41 or 6.39% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 27530 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2468 or 8.23% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 638 yuan/gram on January 30, down 9.31% from the previous value [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 2.57, up 8.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 411, up 482 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 27.47, up 6.17 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.01, down 0.07 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 74.10% [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 57.57 on January 30, up 10.83 or 23.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of SHFE gold/silver was 41.57 on January 30, up 1.13 or 2.80% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.28 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of GZFE platinum/rhodium was 1.36 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.63% from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26% on January 30, up 0.02 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.52% on January 30, down 0.01 or - 0.3% from the previous value [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.90% on January 30, up 0.01 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The US dollar index was 97.12 on January 30, up 0.95 or 0.99% from the previous value [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9589 on January 30, up 0.0107 or 0.15% from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 103029 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The SHFE silver inventory was 455068 (in ten - grams) on January 30, down 26940 or - 5.59% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35748596 on January 30, down 128604 or - 0.36% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 405886807 on January 30, down 2366533 or - 0.58% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19038541 ounces on January 30, up 253295 or 1.35% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 104879945 on January 30, down 3277493 or - 3.03% from the previous value [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1087 tons on January 30, up 0.57 or 0.05% from the previous value [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15523 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the basis, basis rate, historical quantiles, spot price, futures price, and spot reference for various commodities including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures on February 2, 2026 [1][2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF603), the basis is 18, basis rate is 0.32%, historical quantile is 57.40%, spot price is 5678, and futures price is 5660 [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the basis is 122, basis rate is 1.67%, historical quantile is 45.00%, spot price is 5970, and futures price is 5872 [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the basis is 3.90%, historical quantile is 54.00%, spot price is 3250, and futures price is 3128 [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the basis is - 18, basis rate is 0.55%, historical quantile is 11.40%, spot price is 3270, and futures price is 3288 [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the basis is 46, basis rate is 5.79%, historical quantile is 83.70%, spot price is 837, and futures price is 792 [1] - For coke (J2605), the basis is 13, basis rate is 0.74%, historical quantile is 72.71%, spot price is 1734, and futures price is 1722 [1] - For coking coal (JM2605), the basis is 0, basis rate is 0.04%, historical quantile is 32.00%, spot price is 1156, and futures price is 1156 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2603), the basis is 730, basis rate is 0.70%, historical quantile is 94.37%, spot price is 104410, and futures price is 103680 [1] - For aluminum (AL2603), the basis is 100, basis rate is 0.41%, historical quantile is 85.20%, spot price is 24660, and futures price is 24560 [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the basis is - 145, basis rate is 9.91%, historical quantile is 45.25%, spot price is 2623, and futures price is 2768 [1] - For zinc (ZN2603), the basis is - 55, basis rate is 0.43%, historical quantile is 33.95%, spot price is 25835, and futures price is 25720 [1] - For tin (SN2603), the basis is 18650, basis rate is 4.80%, historical quantile is 99.79%, spot price is 428650, and futures price is 409000 [1] - For nickel (NI2603), the basis is 2700, basis rate is 1.93%, historical quantile is 98.54%, spot price is 142700, and futures price is 140000 [1] - For stainless steel (SS2603), the basis is 430, basis rate is 3.04%, historical quantile is 79.18%, spot price is 14570, and futures price is 14140 [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the basis is 12300, basis rate is 8.30%, historical quantile is 99.55%, spot price is 160500, and futures price is 148200 [1] - For industrial silicon (SISEOF), the basis is 400, basis rate is 4.52%, historical quantile is 23.35%, spot price is 9250, and futures price is 8850 [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2604), the basis is 2.6, basis rate is 0.20%, historical quantile is 99.80%, spot price is 1164.0, and futures price is 1161.4 [1] - For silver (AG2604), the basis is - 411.0, basis rate is - 1.50%, historical quantile is 0.40%, spot price is 27941.0, and futures price is 27530.0 [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the basis is 293.0, basis rate is 10.59%, historical quantile is 69.90%, spot price is 3060, and futures price is 2767.0 [1] - For soybean oil (V2605), the basis is 338.0, basis rate is 4.08%, historical quantile is 62.30%, spot price is 8620, and futures price is 8282.0 [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the basis is - 50.0, basis rate is 10.54%, historical quantile is 11.20%, spot price is 9190, and futures price is 9240.0 [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the basis is 183.0, basis rate is 8.00%, historical quantile is 82.00%, spot price is 2470, and futures price is 2287.0 [1] - For rapeseed oil (Oleos), the basis is - 770.0, basis rate is 8.21%, historical quantile is 96.20%, spot price is 9380.0, and futures price is 10150 [1] - For corn (C2603), the basis is 69.0, basis rate is 3.04%, historical quantile is 70.30%, spot price is 2340, and futures price is 2271.0 [1] - For corn starch (CS2603), the basis is 109.0, basis rate is 4.32%, historical quantile is 53.20%, spot price is 2630, and futures price is 2521.0 [1] - For live pigs (LH2603), the basis is 1430.0, basis rate is 12.75%, historical quantile is 84.00%, spot price is 12650, and futures price is 11220.0 [1] - For eggs (JD2603), the basis is 1018.0, basis rate is 33.91%, historical quantile is 92.70%, spot price is 4020 [1] - For cotton (CF605), the basis is 1130.0, basis rate is 7.70%, historical quantile is 75.80%, spot price is 15800, and futures price is 14670.0 [1] - For sugar (SR605), the basis is 132.0, basis rate is 2.52%, historical quantile is 18.50%, spot price is 5380, and futures price is 5248.0 [1] - For apples (AP605), the basis is - 118.0, basis rate is 1.24%, historical quantile is 19.20%, spot price is 9518.0, and futures price is 9400 [1] - For red dates (C1605), the basis is - 950.0, basis rate is 10.61%, historical quantile is 44.60%, spot price is 8000, and futures price is 8950.0 [1] Energy and Chemical Products - For paraxylene (PX603), the basis is 30.0, basis rate is 0.41%, historical quantile is 37.90%, spot price is 7312.0, and futures price is 7282.0 [1] - For PTA (TA605), the basis is - 70.0, basis rate is + 1.33%, historical quantile is 29.60%, spot price is 5270.0, and futures price is 5200.0 [1] - For ethylene glycol (EG2605), the basis is - 108.0, basis rate is 16.60%, historical quantile is 42.76%, spot price is 3805.0, and futures price is 3913.0 [1] - For polyester staple fiber (PF603), the basis is 14.0, basis rate is 0.21%, historical quantile is 47.40%, spot price is 6670.0, and futures price is 6656.0 [1] - For styrene (EB2603), the basis is - 171.0, basis rate is 2.22%, historical quantile is 63.40%, spot price is 7714.0, and futures price is 7885.0 [1] - For methanol (MA605), the basis is - 50.0, basis rate is + 2.16%, historical quantile is 11.80%, spot price is 2270.0, and futures price is 2320.0 [1] - For urea (UR605), the basis is 0.0, basis rate is 0.00%, historical quantile is 16.70%, spot price is 1790.0, and futures price is 1790.0 [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the basis is - 64.0, basis rate is + 0.91%, historical quantile is 8.30%, spot price is 7014.0, and futures price is 6950.0 [1] - For PP (PP2605), the basis is - 34.0, basis rate is 10.50%, historical quantile is 18.20%, spot price is 6824.0, and futures price is 6790.0 [1] - For PVC (V2605), the basis is - 283.0, basis rate is 9.30%, historical quantile is 45.59%, spot price is 5063.0, and futures price is 4780.0 [1] - For caustic soda (SH603), the basis is 109.0, basis rate is 13.01%, historical quantile is 27.70%, spot price is 1975.0, and futures price is 1866.0 [1] - For LPG (PG2603), the basis is 558.0, basis rate is 73.40%, historical quantile is 44.79%, spot price is 4848.0, and futures price is 4290.0 [1] - For asphalt (BU2603), the basis is - 164.0, basis rate is 12.91%, historical quantile is 17.90%, spot price is 3260.0, and futures price is 3424.0 [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2603), the basis is - 390.0, basis rate is 4.60%, historical quantile is 12.34%, spot price is 13000.0, and futures price is 13390.0 [1] - For glass (FG605), the basis is - 116.0, basis rate is 28.51%, historical quantile is 43.44%, spot price is 1056.0, and futures price is 940.0 [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the basis is - 40.0, basis rate is 29.97%, historical quantile is 28.51%, spot price is 1204.0, and futures price is 1164.0 [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the basis is - 110.0, basis rate is 10.68%, historical quantile is 88.07%, spot price is 16360.0, and futures price is 16250.0 [1] Financial Futures - For IF2603.CFE, the basis is 4.7, basis rate is 0.10%, historical quantile is 77.50%, spot price is 4711.0, and futures price is 4706.3 [1] - For IH2603.CFE, the basis is 7.5, basis rate is 0.24%, historical quantile is 90.70%, spot price is 3074.0, and futures price is 3066.5 [1] - For IC2603.CFE, the basis is - 8.1, basis rate is + 0.10%, historical quantile is 71.60%, spot price is 8370.5, and futures price is 8362.4 [1] - For IM2603.CFE, the basis is 5.7, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 91.20%, spot price is 8260.6, and futures price is 8254.9 [1] - For 2 - year bond (TS2603), the basis is 0.04, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 41.70%, spot price is 102.39, and futures price is 100.11 [1] - For 5 - year bond (TF2603), the basis is 0.01, basis rate is 0.01%, historical quantile is 30.00%, spot price is 105.88, and futures price is 99.66 [1] - For 10 - year bond (T2603), the basis is 0.06, basis rate is 0.05%, historical quantile is 23.30%, spot price is 108.29, and futures price is 100.63 [1] - For 30 - year bond (TL2603), the basis is 0.61, basis rate is 0.54%, historical quantile is 84.70%, spot price is 126.60, and futures price is 111.86 [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: February 2, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The spot market is currently firm, with some specifications in short supply and rising prices in Jiangsu due to low inventory. Trading activity in the spot market is expected to decline gradually as the Spring Festival approaches. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduced shipping volume in the future. However, demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. The current valuation of log futures has been slightly repaired, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach at the current price [4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - On January 30, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 all increased compared with January 29, with increases of 1.48%, 1.66%, 0.89%, and 0.50% respectively. The basis of the main contract decreased by 13 [2] - The spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 30 compared with January 29 [2] - The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged from January 23 to January 30 [2] - On February 2, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly compared with February 1, and the import theoretical cost increased by 1.20 yuan [2] Group 5: Supply - In December 2023, the port shipment volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, a 7.82% increase from November [2] - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports decreased by 1 to 7, a 13% week - on - week decrease, and the total arrival volume decreased by 2.7 million cubic meters to 21.9 million cubic meters, an 11% week - on - week decrease [4] Group 6: Inventory - As of January 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 249 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 188.8 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.2 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu was 41.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.1 million cubic meters [3][4] Group 7: Demand - As of January 23, the daily average log出库量 was 6.18 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.02 million cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in Shandong increased by 11%, while the demand in Jiangsu decreased by 15% [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - The prices of domestic vegetable oils followed the trend of stagnation and correction due to the stagnation and correction of US crude oil and US soybean oil, as well as the weakening of macro - sentiment. The main contract of rapeseed oil oscillated and adjusted below 9400 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range for Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures. [1] Cotton - Cotton prices are supported under inventory pressure, with strong buying power in the market and decent consumption. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, new textile orders decline, and demand is mainly for essential needs. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support around 14500 yuan. [2] Sugar - Internationally, Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, India's sugar production has increased significantly, and Thailand's sugar production may decline slightly. It is expected that raw sugar will oscillate at a low level of 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, the Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end, prices are weakening, and the support from the spot market is gradually weakening. The price is in the bottom - grinding stage, and the market is expected to follow the overall macro - sentiment, with attention paid to the pressure around the previous high of 5300 yuan. [3] Red Dates - The Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season for red dates. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the downstream has sufficient time for stocking. The futures are still in the low - valuation range, and the registration volume of new - season red date futures warehouse receipts is relatively small. Attention should be paid to the spot trading and inventory situation of red dates. [4] Apples - During the Spring Festival stocking peak, the trading activity in major apple - producing areas has increased, and the cold - storage inventory has decreased. However, the transaction of farmer - owned apples is still average, and the arrival volume at the Guangdong wholesale market has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the post - festival inventory reduction rhythm. [7][12] Corn and Corn Starch - Before the festival, the selling window in the grass - roots level has shortened, and the enthusiasm for selling has slightly increased. The price is running weakly, but the price decline is limited due to the low - level inventory of the mid - downstream and the strong price - support sentiment. The demand side shows that the deep - processing inventory has increased but is still at a low level, and feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The short - term corn price may decline slightly, and attention should be paid to the selling rhythm and policy release. [14] Meal - The US soybeans have strong support below. Although the short - term impact of Argentina's drought speculation and Brazil's logistics supports the market, the market has declined due to the influence of macro - sentiment. The domestic spot market remains loose, with a high operating rate. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is still relatively high, and the downstream inventory is sufficient with limited stocking willingness. The arrival rhythm is uncertain, and there is speculation about customs clearance. The downside space for soybean and rapeseed meal is also limited. The market's pre - festival stocking sentiment is expected to gradually weaken, and the market may continue to decline with attention paid to the driving force of macro - sentiment. [18] Pigs - The spot price is oscillating weakly, the supply is increasing, and the secondary fattening inventory is rapidly declining. The large - sized pigs that were previously reluctant to sell are now accelerating their sales. The supply pressure is increasing, and there is an expectation of early sales in February. The current futures and spot prices are both weakening, with limited fundamental positives. The market is mainly trading the off - season demand after the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the market will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. [20] Eggs - Egg - raising enterprises are actively selling, and the inventory is normal. The supply of large - sized eggs is sufficient, while that of small - sized eggs is tight. The egg price has reached a phased high, and the downstream demand is not keeping up. As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg sales shift from external to internal. It is expected that the egg price will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the short term. [24] Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 30, compared with January 29, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased to varying degrees. For example, the Jiangsu average price of soybean oil decreased by 120 yuan to 8670 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. [1] - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various oils also changed. For example, the basis of soybean oil Y2605 decreased by 20 yuan to 388 yuan, a decrease of 4.90%. [1] - **Inventory and Other Information**: The inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in coastal areas is provided, and the impact of factors such as rainfall in Argentina on CBOT soybeans and the impact of Trump's speech on US soybean oil are also analyzed. [1] Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, with the cotton 2605 price dropping by 240 yuan to 14670 yuan, a decrease of 1.61%. The ICE US cotton main contract also decreased slightly. [2] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased. The basis between 3128B and the 05 and 09 contracts increased significantly. [2] - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of some regions decreased, the industrial inventory increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in the bonded area also increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth, as well as the processing profit of spinning enterprises, showed different changes. The retail sales of clothing and textile products and the export volume of related products also had corresponding changes. [2] Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased slightly, and the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.45 cents to 14.26 cents, a decrease of 3.06%. [3] - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price increased slightly, and the basis also changed. The import prices of Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased. [3] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales in the country and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, the sales rate decreased, the industrial inventory in the country increased, and the sugar import volume increased. [3] Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased slightly. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed. [4] - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou spot prices of different grades of red dates changed slightly. [4] - **Inventory and Other Information**: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume at the Guangdong Ruyifang market increased. [4] Apples - **Futures Market**: The prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, with the apple 2605 price dropping by 124 yuan to 9518 yuan, a decrease of 1.29%. [7] - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at major fruit wholesale markets decreased slightly. [7] - **Inventory and Other Information**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 28.73 tons to 654.05 tons, a decrease of 4.21%. [7][12] Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2603 decreased slightly, the basis increased, the 3 - 7 spread decreased, the north - south trade profit increased, the Brazilian arrival duty - paid price increased slightly, and the import profit decreased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. [14] - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased, the basis increased, the 3 - 7 spread increased slightly, the starch - corn 03 spread decreased, the Shandong starch profit decreased, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. [14] Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased slightly, the futures price of M2605 decreased, the basis increased, the spot basis quote increased, the Brazilian 3 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. [18] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased, the futures price of RM2605 decreased, the basis increased, the Canadian 3 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased, and the warehouse receipts were zero. [18] - **Soybeans**: The spot prices of Harbin soybeans and Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged, the futures prices of soybean one and soybean two main contracts decreased, the basis increased, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. [18] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread, all changed. [18] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract decreased, the price of pig 2605 increased slightly, the price of pig 2603 increased slightly, the 3 - 5 spread increased, the main contract's trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased to zero. [20] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the local premiums and discounts are provided. [20] - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased slightly, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, the weekly prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight decreased, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased. [20] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased, the basis increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased. [24] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased, the egg - chick price increased, the culled - hen price increased, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased significantly. [24]