Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Lithium - The lithium market has shown price increases across various lithium products. The futures market experienced wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract LC2605 falling 3.53% to 161,940. In the short - term, the market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the 155,000 - 165,000 range. Attention should be paid to positive spread opportunities between months, and unilateral trading is advised to be on hold for the time being [1]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to strengthen in the short - term, with the main contract's central reference in the 140,000 - 155,000 range. The trading is mainly influenced by macro factors and the rhythm of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota, and the current tightening expectation of the ore end is dominant [3]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by strong cost support from the raw material end and weak demand, and future trends depend on raw material news and downstream inventory - building [6]. Tin - The tin price is affected by market sentiment and shows significant short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and consider using options for participation [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations around the industry's cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,600 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with the main contract operating range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is expected to have high - level range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply stability, downstream pre - holiday inventory - building, and the impact of high prices on demand [11]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good. In the short - term, the price trend is strong, mainly due to the risk of global inventory structural imbalance and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with core attention on CL premium changes and LME inventory changes, and support at 99,000 - 100,000 [12]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at around 24,000. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [15]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to demand - side production changes [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to have support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 163,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.19%. Other lithium products also showed price increases, and the basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate changed significantly [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, lithium carbonate production increased, while demand decreased. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased overall, with a significant reduction in smelter inventory [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various nickel products increased, and the import profit and loss of nickel futures and the LME 0 - 3 spread changed. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also had corresponding changes [3]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while imports increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [3]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The spot price of stainless steel was relatively stable, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased, while exports increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased [6]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of tin increased significantly, and the LME 0 - 3 spread also increased [8]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased, and in December, the production of refined tin was basically stable. The import and export volumes of refined tin increased, and the inventory decreased [8]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - The price of aluminum increased, and the price of alumina decreased slightly. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum and alumina changed, and the monthly spread of aluminum also had corresponding adjustments [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina decreased, while the production of electrolytic aluminum increased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of alumina also increased [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased, and the refined - scrap price difference of various aluminum alloys also increased [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly [11]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the refined - scrap price difference increased significantly. The import profit and loss and monthly spread of copper also changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, while imports decreased. The inventory of various copper products increased [12]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread of zinc changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, and exports increased significantly. The operating rates of downstream zinc - related industries were mixed, and the inventory increased [15]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the basis decreased. The monthly spread of the futures contract also changed [18]. Fundamental Data - The national production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production in different regions had different trends. The production of downstream products such as organic silicon and polysilicon also changed, and the inventory decreased slightly [18]. Polysilicon Spot Price, Futures Price, and Spread - The polysilicon spot price was stable, the futures price was weakly oscillating, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. Fundamental Data - The weekly production of polysilicon decreased slightly, and the monthly production increased slightly. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory of polysilicon decreased slightly while the silicon wafer inventory increased [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding investment strategies and advice [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices have reached a record high. Supply may increase as Myanmar's tin mine复产 progresses, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and options are recommended for trading [2][31][35]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal trading in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices follow futures. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [3][59]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [4][74]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: A - shares were volatile at a high level. The TMT sector was hot, while the large - finance sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis of some contracts changed [5][6]. - **News**: The margin ratio for margin trading has been adjusted, and overseas, the US is considering responses to the Iranian situation. A - share trading volume continued to increase, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: A - shares may have limited downward space after a pull - back. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH appropriately. Use bull spreads for small - and medium - cap indexes [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher. The yield of some bonds decreased [8]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net investment was 2122 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, but the central bank's long - term investment may stabilize short - term fluctuations [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is in a short - term oscillating situation. It is recommended to continue to wait and see on a single - side strategy and tend to steepen the curve on a curve strategy [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data showed consumption and inflation resilience. The Fed's Beige Book indicated economic improvement, and the dollar index was stable. Precious metals generally rose, with gold and silver reaching new highs [11][13]. - **Outlook**: The US economy and employment are weak. Geopolitical risks drive capital to allocate precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to have a higher price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [13][14]. Shipping (Container Shipping Index - European Line) - **Index Performance**: The SCFIS European line index and some shipping rates increased, while the SCFI composite index decreased slightly [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container capacity increased, and demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated upwards, but the spot price is in a downward cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories are accumulating. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as US inflation data and the situation in Venezuela. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [16][19]. - **Alumina**: The spot price is loose, and the futures price oscillates widely. The core contradiction is between policy expectations and a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The price is strong, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamental situation is under pressure, with increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended not to chase the price and consider long positions after a pull - back [23][25]. - **Zinc**: The price center has shifted upwards, and the spot premium has decreased. Supply is affected by mine shortages and smelter production cuts, and demand is suppressed by high prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long term and hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [28][31]. - **Tin**: The price has reached a record high. Supply may increase, and demand shows regional differences. It is recommended to wait and see [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand varies in different sectors. The market is affected by Indonesian policies and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to have a bullish view [35][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates strongly, driven by raw material costs. Supply pressure eases slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to expect a strong - oscillating trend [39][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price oscillates widely. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand has some resilience. Social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [43][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price oscillates, with support at 48,000 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price oscillates strongly. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to production cut implementation [48][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation phase, and steel prices oscillate. Spot prices are stable to weak, costs are rising, and production is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in January [50][52]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is facing the off - season, and port inventories are accumulating. The futures price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand has some support. It is recommended to trade within a range [53][54]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [55][59]. - **Coke**: The price oscillates. After the fourth price cut, the market is stable. Supply and demand are improving, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [60][64]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a low level, and demand has some support from steelmaking and non - steel sectors. It is recommended to go long on dips [65][66]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a neutral - to - low level, and demand has support from steelmaking. Manganese ore prices are strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [67][70]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The auction premium is limited, and soybean meal oscillates. The US soybean supply and demand situation affects the market, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [71][73]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [74][75]. - **Corn**: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. Northeast China has a strong reluctance to sell, and downstream demand for restocking exists. Policy auctions are ongoing. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy implementation [76][78]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Brazilian and Indian production situations affect the market, and domestic sales are affected by the Spring Festival [79][80]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillates at a low level, and the domestic cotton price stops falling and stabilizes. The US cotton supply and demand situation and domestic inventory and sales affect the market [81][83]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable to rising, and the market digestion speed is acceptable. Supply is in an oversupply situation, and demand is supported by the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [84][85]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of various oils and fats oscillate. Palm oil is affected by inventory pressure, soybean oil is affected by the US - Iran relationship and supply, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to pay attention to price trends [86][88]. - **Jujubes**: The futures price rebounds, but the supply - demand situation is still oversupplied. It is recommended to short on rallies and test the support at 9000 yuan/ton [89][90]. - **Apples**: The futures price is strong, driven by market sentiment. Short - term factors support the price, but long - term consumption may be affected. It is recommended to use long positions with put - option protection [91]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and have limited downward space in the medium term [92][93]. - **PTA**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and have a low - long strategy in the medium term [94]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to follow raw materials and oscillate. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and shrink the processing fee on a high level [95]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply and demand are both decreasing in January. It is expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and expect the processing fee to oscillate within a certain range [96][97]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is under pressure. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 yuan for EG2605, do reverse arbitrage for EG5 - 9, and sell out - of - the - money call options [98]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is under pressure due to high inventory. Demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread [99]. - **Styrene**: The price is short - term strong but has limited upward space. Supply is tight in the short term, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for EB03 and shrink the processing fee [100][101]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3][102][103]. - **PP**: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory pressure has eased. It is recommended to hold PDH profit - expanding positions [103][105]. - **Methanol**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [105]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [106][107]. - **PVC**: The price is affected by export policies. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling positions [108][109]. - **Urea**: The price center has shifted upwards. Supply is high, but agricultural demand in the Su - Wan region has increased. It is expected to be strong in the short term [110][111]. - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: The price is strong. Supply is decreasing, and demand has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [114][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price oscillates within a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [116][118]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Cost is rising, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and do arbitrage between BR2603 and NR2603 [119][120][121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous expectation of macro - easing boosts capital sentiment, driving the strength of precious metals. In the long - term, precious metals have allocation value due to dual benefits of macro - financial and supply - demand attributes, leading to a rising price center. In the short - term, silver and platinum - palladium metals face tariff risks and high volatility, giving their prices stronger elasticity. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, referring to technical indicators like the 20 - day moving average [1][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - This week, due to uncertainties in the US domestic and foreign situations, capital sentiment is high, and precious metal prices break through again after a short - term adjustment last week. Silver leads the increase, with the international silver price breaking through the historical high of $90 per ounce, and the main silver futures contract AG2604 rising by over 8% to nearly 22,900 yuan per kilogram. The main platinum futures contract PT2606 rises by over 6% and then narrows [1]. Driving Factor 1: Weak US Employment Market and Moderate Inflation Boost Fed's Easing Expectation - In December, the US non - farm employment increased by 50,000 people, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 64,000. From October to November, the total was revised down by 76,000. In 2025, the annual employment increase was only 580,000, the weakest since the pandemic. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, but it was mainly due to the decline in the labor force participation rate in the household sample. The number of registered unemployed people reached 7.5 million, remaining at a high level since mid - 2021 [3]. - In December, US CPI inflation was moderate, with a year - on - year increase of 2.7% and a month - on - month increase of 0.3%, both the same as the previous values. Core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.7% [3][4]. - The weak labor market and inflation situation increase the urgency of further policy easing. The US president pressures the Fed, and the Republican Party is looking for a new Fed chairman. Since last September, the Fed has cut interest rates three times, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points, and launched RMP to buy short - term treasury bonds. Although the market expects the Fed to remain on hold in January, there is a possibility of a more dovish attitude. Under the expectation of policy and loose liquidity, institutional funds have high sentiment for early - year allocation, and precious metals will gain a higher premium [4]. Driving Factor 2: Geopolitical Conflicts and Resource Competition Intensify Supply Tension, and COMEX Physical Delivery Demand is Strong - US intervention in the geopolitical situations in the Middle East, South America, and Greenland is to control and plunder strategic resources. The growth of AI and data centers increases the demand for electricity, and China's tightened silver export policy since January 1, 2026, drive the US to increase resource control in other regions [7]. - Since January, the total number of delivery notices issued for non - main COMEX silver futures contracts has reached 7,212 lots, equivalent to 36 million ounces. The delivery volume in less than half a month is three times that of January last year. Some main - contract positions are "reverse - rolled" to the near - term, indicating strong short - term physical demand. Although the London spot market is relatively loose, the global silver ETF holdings are rising, and the inventory structural tension may not be truly alleviated [8]. Outlook - Precious metals have long - term allocation value, but in the short - term, silver and platinum - palladium metals face tariff risks and high volatility. Investors should set stop - loss and take - profit points according to news and use a strategy of buying on dips with a light position, referring to the 20 - day moving average [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The A - share market saw a pull - back after a continuous volume - increasing upward trend, with the trading volume remaining high, and the correction amplitude may be limited. The bond market is in a volatile situation, and the rebound amplitude of treasury bond futures may be restricted. The precious metals market shows a differentiated trend, and the steel market maintains a volatile trend. Other commodity markets also present various trends based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Equity Index Futures** - **Performance**: Index futures pulled back after reaching highs, and the technology sector had a collective correction. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do a good job in portfolio risk control, avoid heavy - position chasing, and consider allocating IH with relatively weak previous gains. Use bull spreads for small - and medium - cap indexes and pay attention to preventing risks from large fluctuations [3]. **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Performance**: After previous adjustments, the duration of trading positions in the bond market has been compressed to a low level, and the selling pressure on long - term bonds has eased. The ultra - long - end showed an oversold rebound in the past two trading days. The short - term bond market is still in a volatile situation due to unclear economic "good start" and uncertain supply pressure. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. In the medium - term, prefer to steepen the yield curve [3]. **Precious Metals** - **Performance**: U.S. inflation data was generally moderate, the U.S. dollar rebounded, and precious metals showed a differentiated trend with silver leading the rise. - **Operation Suggestion**: Keep a light - position long - bias operation or sell out - of - the - money put options for gold above $4300. Hold long positions of silver above $75 and operate cautiously on a single - side basis. For platinum and palladium, consider buying lightly at the 20 - day moving average [3]. **Shipping and Steel** - **Performance**: The shipping market declined, and the steel market maintained a volatile trend. Iron ore supply is in the off - season, and port inventories are continuously accumulating. - **Operation Suggestion**: For steel, the reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. For iron ore, it is in a wide - range fluctuation with a reference range of 770 - 830 [3]. **Coal and Coking** - **Performance**: Coal prices in Shanxi showed more increases than decreases, and the transaction volume improved. After the fourth round of coke price cuts after New Year's Day, the price stabilized. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on coking coal and coke on dips, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Performance**: Copper prices are at a high level, and downstream operating rates are weakening. Aluminum has high - inflation of long - position sentiment with a risk of emotional correction. Other non - ferrous metals also show different price trends. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold copper long positions lightly and cautiously. For aluminum, wait for a correction to build long positions. For other non - ferrous metals, operate according to their respective price ranges and trends [3]. **New Energy and Chemicals** - **Performance**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuate, and polycrystalline silicon futures decline further. Chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends. - **Operation Suggestion**: For industrial silicon, the reference range is 8000 - 9000. For other chemicals, operate according to their respective price ranges, supply - demand situations, and trends [3]. **Agricultural Products** - **Performance**: USDA reports have different impacts on agricultural products. For example, it is bearish for beans and neutral - bullish for cotton. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different agricultural products have different operation suggestions, such as waiting and seeing, long - position protection, or short - position operations according to their price trends and supply - demand conditions [3].

乳目技 周敏波 Z0015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 102510 | 103235 | -725.00 | -0.70% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 0.00 | | 元/肥 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 102155 | 103165 | -1010.00 | -0.98% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 20 | 5 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 102395 | 103110 | -715.00 | -0.69% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -55 | -65 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 50ae | 5537 | -440.71 | -7.96% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 64.31 | 41.94 | +22.37 | - | 美元/肥 | | 进口盈 ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月14日 | | | | 叶偉品 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 同程 | 1月13日 | 1月12日 | 流跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | 1027.18 | 1026.28 | 0.90 | 0.09% | 元/完 | | AG2604合约 | 21004 | 20945 | ਟਰ | 0.28% | 元/十兄 | | PT2606合约 | 605.05 | 622.80 | -17.75 | -2.85% | | | | | | | | 元/克 | | PD2606合约 | 483.25 | 505.10 | -21.85 | -4.33% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 00 中 | 1月13日 | 1月12日 | 淵鉄 | 旅鉄幅 | 単位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4594.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides detailed insights into the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on the market conditions. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices continue to show a strong performance. Short - term prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and hold the previously recommended call options [2]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The transaction of coking coal in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with futures. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [3]. - **Meal Products**: The USDA report data is bearish, and beans are under pressure. The domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high, and the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [4]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A - share major indices rose first and then fell. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined with the indices, and the basis of the main contracts continued to rise [5][6]. - **News**: The Ministry of Commerce proposed to continue imposing anti - dumping duties on imported solar - grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. Overseas, the US prosecutor's office launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and the US December CPI was in line with expectations [6][7]. - **Funding**: On January 13, the A - share market trading volume reached a new high, and the central bank conducted a net injection of 3424 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH with a relatively weak previous increase. For small - and - medium - cap indices, use bull spreads and pay attention to risk prevention [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, and long - term bonds performed better. The yield of major interest - rate bonds fluctuated [8]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 3586 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on January 13, with a net injection of 3424 billion yuan. However, the money market tightened, and attention should be paid to the central bank's subsequent actions [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is in a volatile market in the short term, lacking a trend. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for unilateral strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US December CPI was in line with expectations, and the fiscal deficit in December 2025 reached a record high. The CME adjusted the margin setting for precious metal contracts. The prices of precious metals showed a differentiated trend, with silver leading the rise [10][11][12]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the medium - long term. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above the 20 - day moving average, hold long positions in silver above 75 US dollars, and buy platinum and palladium on dips near the 20 - day moving average [12][13]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Shipping Index**: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index rose, and the SCFI composite index fell slightly. The spot price of shipping is gradually entering a downward cycle [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The futures price of the main contract declined, and the spot price will continue to put downward pressure on the futures [15]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level, and the downstream operating rate is weak. The medium - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term is affected by inventory and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a wide - range shock. The supply is rigid, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The price is at a high level and fluctuating widely. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to build long positions [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost drives the price up, but the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 can be considered [26][28]. - **Zinc**: The price center has moved up, and the spot transaction is average. The supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is inhibited. It is recommended to focus on the support at 23,800 and go long on dips in the long term [30][33]. - **Tin**: The price continues to be strong. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [33][37]. - **Nickel**: The news reaction is gradually digested, and the price is mainly fluctuating. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies [37][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is fluctuating narrowly. The cost and demand are in a game. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with a reference range of 13,400 - 14,200 [40][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment is strong, and the price continues to rise. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see [44][46]. - **Polysilicon**: The long positions have reduced their positions, and the price has further declined. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the subsequent production reduction and demand recovery [47][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is mainly fluctuating. The supply and demand are both weak in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the production reduction and the change in polysilicon production [50][51]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and the steel price is in a volatile pattern. It is expected to fluctuate in January, with a reference range of 3050 - 3250 for rebar and 3200 - 3350 for hot - rolled coils [52][53][54]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a reference range of 770 - 830. It is recommended to operate within the range [55][56]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [57][61]. - **Coke**: After the fourth - round price cut at the beginning of the year, the price has stabilized. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62][67]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5500 [68][69]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The external price of manganese ore has generally risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5800 [70][72]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The USDA report data is bearish, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [73][75]. - **Hogs**: After the holiday, the demand has declined. It is expected to be in a volatile and bearish pattern in January [76][77]. - **Corn**: The supply is tight, and the downstream has rigid demand for stocking. The price is expected to be supported, but the increase is limited by policy. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy implementation [78][80]. - **Sugar**: The Unica production data is bullish, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [81]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report is slightly bullish, and the domestic cotton price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term price may enter an adjustment period [84][85]. - **Eggs**: The terminal inventory has increased, and the market trading has slowed down. The futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [88]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil has risen first and then fallen, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil are affected by various factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of different oils [89][91][92]. - **Red Dates**: The spot price is supported, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range. It is recommended to short on rallies [94]. - **Apples**: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures price is rising. The short - term price is supported by the low good - fruit rate and low inventory, but the long - term price is affected by consumption. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [95][96]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase under high valuation, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is expected to be low - bought in the medium term [97][98]. - **PTA**: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the pre - holiday driving force is limited. It is recommended to follow the raw material price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 in the short term and be low - bought in the medium term [99][100]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and shrink the processing fee on rallies [101]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand will both decrease in January. The absolute price and processing fee will follow the cost fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [102][103]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 for EG2605, conduct reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 on rallies, and sell out - of - the - money call options on EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies [105]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but the price is still under pressure due to high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [106]. - **Styrene**: It is short - term strong, but the upward space is limited under high valuation and weak expectation. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee on rallies [107][108]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [109][110]. - **PP**: The number of maintenance has increased, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to hold the position with an expanding PDH profit [110]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see [110][111]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the spot transaction is light. The price is expected to be stable and weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream procurement volume and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [111][112]. - **PVC**: The export factor amplifies the price fluctuation, and the short - term trading focus is not on supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions in the short term [113][114]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the downstream is cautious about high - priced purchases. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to the production resumption rhythm and downstream demand [116][117]. - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion [118][120]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair and restocking maintain the price strength. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion and supply - demand balance [118][121]. - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw material price is high, and the rubber price is fluctuating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the raw material output in Thailand [121][123]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is firm, but the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The BR2603 is expected to run in the range of 11,800 - 12,500. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - level disturbances [124][126].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views LLDPE and PP - PE: HD - LL spread narrows, some full - density plants switch to LLDPE production. There is short - term positive feedback in the spot market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The marginal supply of LLDPE is expected to increase, and demand enters the seasonal off - peak season [1]. - PP: The supply and demand are both weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The balance of PP has improved significantly, and the weighted profit has recovered compared with the previous period [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures rose in the morning and then fell back. The spot was purchased as needed. The basis weakened rapidly. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance plans [4]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuated weakly. The supply is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand situation and may fluctuate weakly without new stimuli [7]. Natural Rubber - The supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yield tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. The demand has a certain boost, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to follow the futures to decline and continue to be weak in the short term [12]. - Soda Ash: The market sentiment has declined, and the supply is high while the demand has slightly decreased. The inventory needs to be reduced, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC: The price fluctuated, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. The short - term price is affected by export policies, and short positions should be temporarily on the sidelines [13]. - Caustic Soda: The market is weak. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement. The price is expected to be stable and slightly weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the price follows the crude oil to fluctuate. The strategy is to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [14]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the downstream resistance is strong. The price increase space is limited, and the strategy is to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee when it is high [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and be low - bought in the medium term [15]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to weaken in January, and the price follows the raw materials. The strategy is to short - term fluctuate in the range of 5,000 - 5,300 and low - buy in the medium term [15]. - MEG: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure, and the strategy is to pay attention to the pressure at 4,000 for EG2605 [15]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee should be shrunk when it is high [15]. - Polyester Bottle Chip: The supply and demand both decrease, and the price and processing fee follow the cost. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [15]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the upstream and downstream operating rates have changed slightly. The price is affected by factors such as supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Crude Oil - The oil price rose. The instability in Iran continues, and the potential supply risk supports the short - term strength of the oil price, but the increase is limited due to the weak overall supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices**: The prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LDPE, etc. have also fluctuated [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 6.66%, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 4.69%. The trade - related inventory of PP increased by 15.52% [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.52%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have changed. The spot prices in different regions have also fluctuated [4]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all increased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.54%, and some downstream operating rates decreased [4]. Urea - **Prices**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The production capacity has recovered, and the daily output has reached a high level [7]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the futures inventory in the factory warehouse decreased by 1.74% [9]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: The production in Thailand and Indonesia in November decreased, and the operating rates of some tire enterprises changed [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: The prices of glass in different regions and soda ash in different regions have changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash factory inventory increased [12]. - **Operating Rates**: The soda ash operating rate increased, and the float glass daily melting volume decreased slightly [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms have changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PVC and caustic soda in some regions has increased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the PVC and caustic soda industries have changed slightly [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream products such as pure benzene and styrene have changed [14]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of pure benzene and styrene has changed [14]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream polyester products have changed [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory situation of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. has changed [15]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain have changed slightly [15]. LPG - **Prices**: The futures and spot prices of LPG have increased [17]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG have decreased slightly [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG have changed slightly [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, etc. have increased, and the prices of refined oil products have also changed [19]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products have changed [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - The medium - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift of the bottom center. Short - term price strength is due to the risk of structural imbalance in global inventories and supply concerns from the Venezuela event. However, real - end demand is weak at high prices [2]. Zinc - In the context of geopolitical tensions, the non - ferrous metal sector moves upward in resonance. The zinc price is supported by tight ore supply but may face pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with support around 23800 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, with the core contradiction between policy expectations and weak fundamentals. The aluminum price is driven by macro and policy expectations but faces pressure from supply growth and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to be high - level and widely volatile [7]. Tin - The supply of tin may increase with the potential resumption of mines in Myanmar, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price is volatile, and it is recommended to hold previously bought call options [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to be low - level and volatile, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices are falling. The market will continue to accumulate inventory in January. The price may be supported at 48000 - 50000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market fluctuates at a high level. Cost is the main driving factor, but the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [14]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate futures are rising. The supply side has a slight increase expectation, and downstream demand has some resilience. The market sentiment is strong, but short - term liquidity and regulatory risks should be noted [16]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a wide - range shock. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market. Short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile [18]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a narrow - range shock. It is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand in the off - season. Short - term price is expected to adjust in a shock pattern [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 102510 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous value. The refined - scrap spread is 5042 yuan/ton, down 7.96% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month. Global visible inventories are at a high level, but 50% are in the US and difficult to flow to non - US regions [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24330 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The refined zinc output in December was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic zinc mine production has declined for two consecutive months, and the zinc ore TC is at a low level. The downstream start - up rate and orders are weak [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24300 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, and the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons. The inventory is accumulating [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 380200 yuan/ton, up 3.16%. The import volume of tin ore in November increased significantly month - on - month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may accelerate, and demand shows regional differences [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is at 8835 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be weak. The production may decrease by 1 - 2 million tons, and demand may decline by about 1 million tons [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is below 50000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the downstream start - up rate is expected to decline, and the market will continue to accumulate inventory [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM ADC12 is 23950 yuan/ton. The cost is the main driving factor, but the supply and demand are weak [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in December was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [14]. Lithium - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159500 yuan/ton, up 4.93%. The supply side has a slight increase, and downstream demand has some resilience [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate was 99200 tons, and the demand was 130118 tons. The inventory is changing [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 145200 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 30.08% [18]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel is stable. The price is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50% month - on - month, and the social inventory is decreasing [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report Core View - The report presents the latest trading data of various commodities and financial products on January 14, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles, covering ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and financial sectors. [1] 3. Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5682, futures price is 5728, basis is - 46, basis rate is - 0.81%, and historical quantile is 60.40% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 6517, futures price is 5916, basis is 601, basis rate is 10.16%, and historical quantile is 46.10% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3300, futures price is 3158, basis is 142, basis rate is 4.5%, and historical quantile is 60.10% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3303, futures price is 3280, basis is 23, basis rate is 0.7%, and historical quantile is 9.80% [1]. - **Iron Ore (12605)**: Spot price is 883, futures price is 820, basis is 63, basis rate is 7.69%, and historical quantile is 49.10% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1756, futures price is 1745, basis is 11, basis rate is 0.62%, and historical quantile is 71.29% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1191, futures price is 1156, basis is 35, basis rate is 2.94%, and historical quantile is 25.20% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2603)**: Spot price is 102290, futures price is 102510, basis is - 220, basis rate is - 0.22%, and historical quantile is 76.45% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: Spot price is 24375, futures price is 24300, basis is 75, basis rate is 0.31%, and historical quantile is 36.04% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2780, futures price is 2656, basis is 124, basis rate is 4.45%, and historical quantile is 11.67% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Spot price is 24260, futures price is 24235, basis is 25, basis rate is 0.1%, and historical quantile is 66.04% [1]. - **Tin (SN2602)**: Spot price is 380200, futures price is 379330, basis is 870, basis rate is 0.23%, and historical quantile is 76.25% [1]. - **Nickel (NISEOS)**: Spot price is 141000, futures price is 138450, basis is 2550, basis rate is 1.84%, and historical quantile is 98.95% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Spot price is 14070, futures price is 13855, basis is 215, basis rate is 1.55%, and historical quantile is 51.71% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 166980, futures price is 159500, basis is - 7480, basis rate is - 4.48%, and historical quantile is 4.18% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SIS605)**: Spot price is 9250, futures price is 8632, basis is 615, basis rate is 7.12%, and historical quantile is 39.21% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Spot price is 1025.5, futures price is 1027.2, basis is - 1.7, basis rate is - 0.2%, and historical quantile is 49.90% [1]. - **Silver (AG2604)**: Spot price is 21004, futures price is 21048, basis is - 44, basis rate is - 0.21%, and historical quantile is 98.10% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3100, futures price is 2761, basis is 339, basis rate is 12.28%, and historical quantile is 73.70% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (y2605)**: Spot price is 8430, futures price is 7986, basis is 444, basis rate is 5.55%, and historical quantile is 77.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 8778, futures price is 8750, basis is 28, basis rate is 0.32%, and historical quantile is 18.10% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2490, futures price is 2314, basis is 176, basis rate is 7.61%, and historical quantile is 80.30% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Spot price is 9780, futures price is 9017, basis is 763, basis rate is 8.45%, and historical quantile is 96.00% [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Spot price is 2360, futures price is 2284, basis is 76, basis rate is 3.33%, and historical quantile is 73.60% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Spot price is 2620, futures price is 2561, basis is 59, basis rate is 2.30%, and historical quantile is 25.40% [1]. - **Live Pigs (H2603)**: Spot price is 13000, futures price is 11795, basis is 1205, basis rate is 10.22%, and historical quantile is 82.60% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot price is 3330, futures price is 2990, basis is 340, basis rate is 11.37%, and historical quantile is 65.90% [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price is 15600, futures price is 14760, basis is 840, basis rate is 5.69%, and historical quantile is 37.00% [1]. - **White Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5390, futures price is 5253, basis is 137, basis rate is 2.61%, and historical quantile is 21.40% [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9200, futures price is 9779, basis is - 579, basis rate is - 5.92%, and historical quantile is 4.20% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: Spot price is 8200, futures price is 9060, basis is - 860, basis rate is - 9.49%, and historical quantile is 50.50% [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX603)**: Spot price is 7282, futures price is 7229, basis is - 53, basis rate is - 0.73%, and historical quantile is 17.30% [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price is 5140, futures price is 5060, basis is 80, basis rate is 1.56%, and historical quantile is 23.60% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 3815, futures price is 3665, basis is 150, basis rate is 3.93%, and historical quantile is 5.90% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF603)**: Spot price is 6530, futures price is 6506, basis is 24, basis rate is 0.37%, and historical quantile is 49.10% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2602)**: Spot price is 7170, futures price is 7028, basis is 142, basis rate is 2.02%, and historical quantile is 56.60% [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price is 2263, futures price is 2257, basis is 6, basis rate is 0.27%, and historical quantile is 35.00% [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price is 1774, futures price is 1740, basis is 34, basis rate is 1.92%, and historical quantile is 8.10% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 6766, futures price is 6750, basis is 16, basis rate is 0.24%, and historical quantile is 18.00% [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 6545, futures price is 6500, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.69%, and historical quantile is 15.10% [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 4888, futures price is 4670, basis is 218, basis rate is 4.46%, and historical quantile is 23.40% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Spot price is 2131, futures price is 2106.3, basis is 24.8, basis rate is 1.16%, and historical quantile is 40.30% [1]. - **LPG (PG2603)**: Spot price is 4958, futures price is 4313, basis is 645, basis rate is 14.95%, and historical quantile is 80.90% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2603)**: Spot price is 3140, futures price is 3080, basis is 60, basis rate is 1.91%, and historical quantile is 40.10% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2603)**: Spot price is 12100, futures price is 12000, basis is 100, basis rate is 0.83%, and historical quantile is 41.50% [1]. - **Glass (FG605)**: Spot price is 1096, futures price is 940, basis is 156, basis rate is 16.60%, and historical quantile is 9.47% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Spot price is 1212, futures price is 1162, basis is 50, basis rate is 4.30%, and historical quantile is 22.31% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price is 15975, futures price is 15800, basis is 175, basis rate is 1.11%, and historical quantile is 84.08% [1]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures - IF2603.CFE**: Spot price is 4761, futures price is 4758.6, basis is - 2.4, basis rate is - 0.05%, and historical quantile is 57.20% [1]. - **Stock Index Futures - IH2603.CFE**: Spot price is 3137.6, futures price is 3132.9, basis is 4.7, basis rate is 0.15%, and historical quantile is 82.90% [1]. - **Stock Index Futures - IC2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8143.3, futures price is 8131.2, basis is 12.1, basis rate is 0.15%, and historical quantile is 65.10% [1]. - **Stock Index Futures - IM2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8203.1, futures price is 8160.4, basis is 42.7, basis rate is 0.92%, and historical quantile is 38.30% [1]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (122603)**: Spot price is 102.33, futures price is 100.03, basis is - 0.02, basis rate is - 0.02%, and historical quantile is 24.80% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TF2603)**: Spot price is 99.38, futures price is 105.62, basis is - 0.08, basis rate is - 0.07%, and historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (T2603)**: Spot price is 107.85, futures price is 100.25, basis is 0.44, basis rate is 0.39%, and historical quantile is 65.00% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TL2603)**: Spot price is 125.81, futures price is 111.31, basis is 0.44, basis rate is 0.39%, and historical quantile is 65.00% [1].