股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 中信多空头均加仓 3000 手以上 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信国君皆积极加仓 2000 手以上 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2509 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 海通多空头各加仓超 1000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓基本未变 | 中信多空头各减仓超 1000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 9,997.0 5,322.0 2,193.0 -302.0 16,392.0 8,951.0 4,535.0 17.0 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 广发期货研究所 ...

| 10 | 0.18% | 60.70% | 5668 | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF509) | 5678 | 36 | 0.61% | 31.90% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5950 | 5914 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | de | 2.98% | 48.00% | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3320 | 3224 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 0.77% | 26 | 27.60% | 3420 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3394 | | | | | | 3.50% | 25.20% | 837 | 28 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 809 | -8.87% | 1603 | -142 | 1 ...

数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、富宝资讯、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整件不作任何保证。本报告反馈研究人员的不同观点、见解 的体制合合同意的。 但一会的权德主营。报影中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种实践的出价或询价、投资 改装定客户及其他专业人士、版权归广发期货所有、未经广发期货书面授权、任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发 。风险目控。本报告旨在发送给厂友拥资 知识图强, 求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所零达的意见歼不动成所法品种买来的出价或向价，投资寄据此 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发明货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权旧厂发期货所有，未经了发期贫守面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发，需注明 ...

IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 国君多空头减仓 1000 手以上 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓保持稳定 | 前二十席位减仓为主 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2509 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 前二十席位加建仓不一 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 中信多头加仓超 4000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： 2025 年 7 月 22 日星期二 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息： 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -4,355.0 -1,868.0 2,374.0 3,667.0 -2,025.0 -634.0 5,196.0 15,851.0 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ...

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on July 22, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread is - 20.81, down 4.06 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 30.70% and an all - time percentile of 21.70% [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Such as the F inter - delivery spread, where the season - month minus the current - month is - 41.00, down 32.20, with a 1 - year percentile of 20.00% and an all - time percentile of 26.40% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For instance, the IC/IF ratio is 1.4898, up 0.0051, with a 1 - year percentile of 62.20% and an all - time percentile of 60.20% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report provides data on IRR, basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures on July 22, 2025, including their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: The 15 - year IRR is 1.6099, down 0.0053 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 24.90% [2]. - **Basis**: For example, the T basis is 1.5727, down 0.0409, with a historical percentile of 53.80% [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Like the TS inter - delivery spread, the current - season minus the alternate - season is - 0.0080, with a historical percentile of 11.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Such as the TS - TF spread, which is - 3.5350 on July 22, 2025, up 0.0210, with a historical percentile of 8.10% [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report shows the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and holdings of precious metals on July 22, 2025, along with their changes [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 781.70 yuan/gram on July 21, up 4.68 (0.60%) from July 18 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The London gold price was 3396.67 dollars/ounce on July 21, up 47.01 (1.40%) from July 18 [4]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis is - 4.70, down 1.05, with a 1 - year percentile of 5.60% [4]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 86.91, down 0.42 (- 0.48%) [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38%, down 0.06 (- 1.4%) [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The SPRD gold ETF holding is 947 tons, up 3.44 (0.36%) [4]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report offers information on Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data on July 22, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Freight Rates**: The CMA CGM's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate is 4226 dollars/FEU on July 21, up 124 (3.78%) from July 20 [7]. - **Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 2400.50 points on July 21, down 21.4 (- 0.89%) from July 14 [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1486.4 on July 21, down 8.7 (- 0.58%) from July 18, and the basis of the main contract is 956.5, down 22.1 (- 2.26%) [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3271.67 on July 22, unchanged from July 21 [7]. Group 5: Trading Calendar Core Viewpoints - The report lists overseas and domestic data and information release schedules on July 22, 2025, including various economic indicators and events [9]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data**: Such as New Zealand's log exports [9]. - **Domestic Data**: For example, the inventory of manganese ore by variety and the throughput of manganese ore in Qinzhou Port for manganese - silicon [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Valuation shows marginal profit gradually recovering, with synchronized contraction in PP and PE supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak demand trend. PP maintenance has peaked, while PE maintenance first rises then falls. There are few import offers, and some Middle - East devices are shut down due to power issues. There will be a seasonal recovery in demand at the end of July. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices over 20 years old. Strategy: unilateral short - term opportunity for PP with a bearish bias, and range - bound buying for PE [2] Methanol Industry - Inland prices fluctuate slightly. Supply has high maintenance losses in July but with expected复产. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season of downstream industries, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens. Overseas Iranian device production is back, with expected imports of 125 million tons in July and a slight decline in August. After MTO profit repair, maintenance is uncertain. There will be inventory accumulation from July to August, and prices are weak [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improves in July. Although there are production news releases, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene. With high import expectations and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. However, it may be boosted in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited. For styrene, the industry profit is maintained, and the operating rate is high. The supply - demand margin is repaired, but the supply - demand outlook is weak, and port inventory increases. It is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside [7] Polyester Industry Chain - In July, the PX supply - demand is good overall. Although some factory loads fluctuate, the overall supply impact is limited. Downstream PTA has increased maintenance expectations after significant processing fee compression, and terminal demand feedback is negative. PX demand support is weak. Considering new PTA capacity, the PX supply - demand outlook is tight, and PXN has some support. It may be boosted in the short - term but is restricted by demand and oil price expectations. For PTA, the load is around 80%, and with new device expectations and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It may be supported in the short - term by market sentiment. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand and price trends are analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The upper pressure comes from US tariff threats and EU sanctions on Russia, while the lower support is from the diesel fundamentals. Diesel cracking profit in Europe reaches a high level since 2024, indicating a tight medium - heavy crude oil structure. Refinery high - operating rates lead to counter - seasonal diesel inventory drawdown. Oil prices show a wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term direction depends on sanctions' impact on Russian supply and tariff risks [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price is boosted by policies, and there is an expectation of industry capacity reduction. The spot trading is average, and the price in Guangdong drops. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is an upward price expectation in the peak season. For PVC, the futures price is also boosted by policies, but the spot market has little change. The supply - demand is in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory slightly accumulates. Short - term trading is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [36][37] Urea Industry - The core driver of the urea futures is macro - policy. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies are interpreted as beneficial for the urea industry, which may reduce large - particle supply. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The futures price rise stimulates spot trading, and the basis has a repair expectation. In the short - term, the capacity reduction probability is low, but in the long - term, there may be a transformation in urea production capacity structure. The market should focus on export quota execution and trading expectations [41][42] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 21 compared to July 18, with varying increase rates. The basis and price differences between different contracts also changed [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased slightly, and downstream operating rates also showed a downward trend. Inventories of PE and PP increased [2] Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol changed slightly. The basis strengthened at the port, and regional price differences also had some changes [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply in July had high maintenance losses but with expected复产. Demand was restricted by the off - season. At the port, imports were expected to increase in July and decrease slightly in August, and there would be inventory accumulation from July to August [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: Prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased on July 21 compared to July 18, and the cash - flow and price differences also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved in July, but downstream price transmission was poor. For styrene, the industry profit was maintained, and the operating rate was high, but the supply - demand outlook was weak [7] Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. Processing fees and price differences also had corresponding changes [11] - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply - demand was good overall, but downstream PTA had increased maintenance expectations. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand situations were analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC oil prices decreased slightly on July 22 compared to July 21. Price differences between different contracts and between different oil types also changed [32] - **Supply and Demand**: The upper pressure on oil prices came from macro - factors, while the lower support was from diesel fundamentals. Diesel inventory showed counter - seasonal drawdown [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot products changed on July 21 compared to July 18, and the basis and price differences also had corresponding changes [36] - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, and for PVC, it was in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand [36][37] Urea Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. The basis and price differences also changed [40] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and the plant - level inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased [41]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Pay attention to domestic anti-involution policies and overseas equivalent tariff policy expectations, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - For alumina, short-term prices are expected to remain strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but beware of policy changes in Guinea and the risk of a short squeeze due to the reduction of warehouse receipts. Mid-term, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For aluminum, short-term prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and changes in imports. [6] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Long-term supply is expected to be loose, but terminal consumption still has some resilience in the short term. [9] Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations. [12] Tin - With the gradual resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, there is an expectation of supply-side repair. However, due to the current positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, consider shorting on rallies. [14] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy trends and the asset conditions of steel mills. [18] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong within a range, with the main contract reference range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton. However, the mid-term upward risk is higher than the downward risk, and pay attention to upstream actions. [21] Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.14% to 79,555 yuan/ton. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened by 53.15% to 1,479 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 1.1349 million tons, while imports increased by 18.74% to 300,500 tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.92% to 20,890 yuan/ton. The import loss of aluminum was 1,427 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 3.609 million tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy prices in different regions increased by 0.50% - 0.99%. [5] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 615,000 tons, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 255,000 tons. [6] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.24% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The import loss of zinc was 1,706 yuan/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 36,100 tons. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.11% to 122,850 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was -206 dollars/ton. [12] Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. [12] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.64% to 267,200 yuan/ton. The import loss of tin was 16,228.79 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. [14] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.78% - 1.18%. 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price increased by 0.17% to 902 yuan/nickel point. [18] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 mills) decreased by 3.83% to 1.7133 million tons. [18] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.03% to 68,000 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened by 3.13% to 1,650 yuan/ton. [21] Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78,090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93,878 tons. [21]

| を业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0019938 | 王法特 | 2025年7月22日 | | | | | | | | | | | 原田 | 7月21日 | 7月18日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 0.00% | 江苏一级 | 8350 | 8350 | 0 | 现价 | -0.83% | 期价 | Y2509 | 8092 | 8160 | -68 | | Y2509 | 258 | 190 | 35.79% | 其差 | 28 | 09+150 | 09+170 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 20 | - | | 仓单 | 22118 | 22118 | 0.00% | 0 | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 7月18日 | 7月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 广东24度 | 8970 | 8970 | 0.00% | 现价 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report provides industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures opened higher and moved up, with SI2509 rising 440 yuan/ton to 9260 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton, opening the basis arbitrage window. From the supply - demand perspective, the shutdown of large - scale organic silicon enterprises due to fire will reduce 3% of the demand, which is not conducive to price increases. However, price increases in organic silicon, polysilicon, and coking coal are favorable for industrial silicon prices. With the reduction of warehouse receipts and controllable inventory, the price continues to rise. Technically, the daily line strongly breaks through the resistance level. Macroscopically, the commodity market is in a bullish trend, and large enterprises have no plans to resume production, which is conducive to the strong oscillation of industrial silicon prices. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price will continue to rise, and due to the large open interest of the 09 contract, position control and risk management are recommended [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices opened high, fell back, and then fluctuated upwards, with PS2509 rising 1810 yuan/ton to 45660 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage window. The price increase is being transmitted downstream, and the increase in silicon product transactions and prices is conducive to price support. Downstream prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have increased by 0.2 - 4%. Attention should be paid to whether the terminal installation can absorb the products. With the approaching delivery month of the 08 contract, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management, and whether the increase in prices will lead to an increase in warehouse receipts and hedging positions. Technically, the daily line has a long lower shadow, and the hourly line shows a top - divergence sign, but it is still above the moving average. There is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears, and price fluctuations are large [2]. Soda Ash - Under the influence of relevant policies and news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the futures market has risen sharply, and the market has certain expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The macro - market sentiment is bullish, with the stock market and commodities rebounding. Although the inventory decreased on Monday this week, there was a continuous inventory build - up trend before, and the inventory of soda ash plants continued to reach new highs. In the medium term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, the float glass production capacity has flattened, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the second half of the year, with a possible further cold - repair expectation. Therefore, the overall demand for soda ash has not increased significantly. Without actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, inventory build - up may accelerate. In the short term, due to policy and news disturbances, the futures market fluctuates sharply, deviating from its fundamental logic, and caution is recommended [3]. Glass - Under the influence of relevant policies and news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the futures market has risen sharply, and the market has certain expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The macro - market sentiment is bullish, with the stock market and commodities rebounding. The futures market sentiment has driven the spot market to be strong, with high sales - to - production ratios in many regions and spot price increases. However, it is currently the rainy season in summer, the deep - processing orders are weak, the low - e glass production rate is continuously low, and there is certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long run, the industry needs to eliminate production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the implementation of production line exits to bring a real reversal to the futures market. Currently, the futures market is mainly driven by sentiment, and large fluctuations are expected in the near future. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia has continued to hinder rubber tapping in the producing areas, and raw material prices have rebounded. There may be a typhoon hitting Hainan next week, so there are many short - term disturbances on the supply side. On the demand side, the overall sales performance is mediocre, the channel inventory is sufficient, and the increase in terminal demand is limited, with a short - term stable trend. Although the hot weather has driven a certain increase in downstream demand, the overall effect is average. In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment and rainfall in the producing areas, rubber prices have continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather in the main producing areas improves, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [5]. Logs - Recently, under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, the sentiment of commodities has improved, and log futures have risen significantly last week. Fundamentally, the expected arrival volume this week is expected to gradually recover. Currently, due to the high - temperature weather, the demand for logs is in the off - season, and the spot price has declined. Short - term chasing of rising prices is not recommended, but buying on dips can be considered during corrections. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and policy expectations in the future [7]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon increased from 9320 to 9500 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.60%; the basis decreased from 655 to 240 yuan/ton, a decline of 63.36%. The price of Huale SI4210 industrial silicon increased from 9650 to 9750 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.04%; the basis decreased from - 10 to - 310 yuan/ton, a decline of 300.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased from 8650 to 8800 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.73%; the basis decreased from 755 to 340 yuan/ton, a decline of 54.97% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased from - 10 to - 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased from 35 to 70 yuan/ton, a rise of 100.00%; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased from 30 to 80 yuan/ton, a rise of 166.67%; the spread of 2511 - 2512 increased from - 290 to - 210 yuan/ton, a rise of 27.59%; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased from 65 to 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 23.08% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased from 34.22 to 30.08 million tons, a decline of 12.10%; Xinjiang's production decreased from 21.08 to 16.75 million tons, a decline of 20.55%; Yunnan's production increased from 1.23 to 1.35 million tons, a rise of 9.35%; Sichuan's production increased from 0.46 to 1.13 million tons, a rise of 145.65%. The national operating rate decreased from 57.80% to 51.23%, a decline of 11.37%; Xinjiang's operating rate decreased from 78.05% to 60.74%, a decline of 22.18%; Yunnan's operating rate decreased from 19.97% to 18.13%, a decline of 9.21%; Sichuan's operating rate increased from 0.49% to 7.30%, a rise of 1389.80%. Organic silicon DMC production increased from 18.40 to 20.93 million tons, a rise of 13.75%; polysilicon production increased from 9.61 to 10.10 million tons, a rise of 5.10%; recycled aluminum alloy production increased from 60.60 to 61.50 million tons, a rise of 1.49%; industrial silicon exports increased from 5.95 to 6.05 million tons, a rise of 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased from 12.39 to 12.36 million tons, a decline of 0.24%; Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased from 2.72 to 2.73 million tons, a rise of 0.37%; Sichuan's factory - warehouse inventory decreased from 2.33 to 2.30 million tons, a decline of 1.29%. Social inventory decreased from 55.10 to 54.70 million tons, a decline of 0.73%; warrant inventory decreased from 25.20 to 25.07 million tons, a decline of 0.50%; non - warrant inventory decreased from 29.90 to 29.63 million tons, a decline of 0.92% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feedstock remained at 46000 yuan/ton; the average price of P - type cauliflower - like feedstock remained at 29500 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained at 43000 yuan/ton. The N - type feedstock basis decreased from 2150 to 340 yuan/ton, a decline of 84.19%; the cauliflower - like feedstock basis decreased from - 2350 to - 4160 yuan/ton, a decline of 77.02% [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The price of PS2506 increased from 43850 to 45660 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.13%. The spread of PS2506 - PS2507 decreased from 370 to 225 yuan/ton, a decline of 39.19%; the spread of PS2507 - PS2508 decreased from 235 to 145 yuan/ton, a decline of 38.30%; the spread of PS2508 - PS2509 decreased from 320 to 180 yuan/ton, a decline of 43.75%; the spread of PS2509 - PS2510 decreased from - 2015 to - 2075 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.98%; the spread of PS2510 - PS2511 decreased from 380 to 240 yuan/ton, a decline of 43.75%; the spread of PS2511 - PS2512 decreased from 200 to 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.98% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased from 11.50 to 11.10 GW, a decline of 3.48%; polysilicon production increased from 2.28 to 2.30 million tons, a rise of 0.88%. Monthly: Polysilicon production increased from 9.61 to 10.10 million tons, a rise of 5.10%; polysilicon imports increased from 0.10 to 0.11 million tons, a rise of 16.59%; polysilicon exports increased from 0.21 to 0.22 million tons, a rise of 5.96%; the net export of polysilicon remained at 0.11 million tons, a decline of 2.91%. Silicon wafer production increased from 58.06 to 58.84 GM, a rise of 1.34%; silicon wafer imports decreased from 0.07 to 0.06 million tons, a decline of 15.41%; silicon wafer exports increased from 0.55 to 0.61 million tons, a rise of 11.37%; the net export of silicon wafers increased from 0.48 to 0.55 million tons, a rise of 15.56%. Silicon wafer demand decreased from 60.61 to 56.53 CM, a decline of 6.73% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased from 27.60 to 24.90 million tons, a decline of 9.78%; silicon wafer inventory decreased from 18.13 to 16.02 GM, a decline of 11.64%; polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 2780 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The price of North China glass increased from 1160 to 1180 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.72%; the price of East China glass increased from 1240 to 1250 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.81%; the price of Central China glass increased from 1100 to 1130 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.73%; the price of South China glass remained at 1290 yuan/ton. The price of glass 2505 increased from 1240 to 1317 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.21% [3]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The price of North China soda ash remained at 1350 yuan/ton; the price of East China soda ash remained at 1230 yuan/ton; the price of Central China soda ash remained at 1200 yuan/ton; the price of Northwest soda ash increased from 960 to 980 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.08%. The price of soda ash 2505 increased from 1306 to 1390 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.43%; the price of soda ash 2509 increased from 1216 to 1295 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.05% [3]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate increased from 81.32% to 84.10%, a rise of 3.42%; the weekly production of soda ash increased from 70.90 to 73.32 million tons, a rise of 3.41%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased from 15.84 to 15.78 million tons, a decline of 0.38%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased from 94390 to 91840 tons, a decline of 2.70% [3]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased from 6710.20 to 6493.90 ten - thousand standard boxes, a decline of 3.22%; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased from 186.34 to 190.56 million tons, a rise of 2.26%; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased from 23.80 to 24.66 million tons, a rise of 3.61%. The inventory days of soda ash in glass factories increased from 21.0 to 23.4 days, a rise of 11.34% [3]. Real Estate Data (Monthly) - The new construction area increased by 2.99% year - on - year; the construction area decreased by 7.56% year - on - year; the completion area increased by 15.67% year - on - year; the sales area increased by 12.13% year - on - year [3]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased from 14800 to 14850 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.34%; the whole - latex basis decreased from - 10 to - 45 yuan/ton, a decline of 350.00%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased from 14500 to 14550 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.34%; the non - standard price difference decreased from - 310 to - 345 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.29%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market increased from 48.60 to 49.30 Thai baht/kg, a rise of 1.44%; the FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market remained at 54.50 Thai baht/kg. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna remained at 12800 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna remained at 13400 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan increased from 13200 to 13300 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.7

Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - economic factors, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [2]. - Different commodities have different price trends and investment opportunities, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index**: There is an obvious high - low switching phenomenon between sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital side and incremental policies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the tax period this week, funds may gradually return to a loose state. In the short - term, the bond market is significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and is in a box - shock stage. Curve strategies can continue to bet on steepening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fluctuates more due to short - term trade conflicts and a weaker dollar, maintaining a shock - upward trend above $3300. Silver has further upward space above $38 and long positions can be held [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates. It is expected that the near - month will be weakly volatile. It is advisable to short the 08 contract or lightly short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, pig iron production has rebounded, and steel mills' restocking provides support. It is recommended to go long on dips for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the advancement of anti - involution policies, copper prices fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 78,500 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Alumina is strong due to capacity elimination expectations and squeezing risks. Aluminum prices have a slight recovery, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Zinc has weak demand expectations with inventory accumulation. Tin, nickel, and stainless steel have different trends affected by macro and industrial factors [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro and fundamental aspects are in a multi - empty stalemate, and short - term oil prices fluctuate mainly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset in the short - term [2]. - **Chemicals**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX is supported in the short - term, PTA is also supported, and some products like caustic soda and PVC are affected by macro and policy factors [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, soybeans have strong bottom support, palm oil is weak due to slow exports, and cotton has a short - term strong trend and a medium - term bearish trend [2]. Special Commodities - Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by macro factors. Their prices have risen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by macro - sentiment. Their prices have upward trends, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to risk management [2].