Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: PVC Pipe, Galvanized Pipe, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Live Pigs [1] - **Sideways**: Aluminium, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Cotton Yarn, Paper Pulp, Asphalt, Styrene, PTA, Naphtha, Short Fiber, Urea, PF, PVC, PG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Report's Core View - After the continuous strong and volume - increasing rise of stock index futures, capital flow amplifies market volatility. With the approaching of key macro - event nodes in September, the index is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Multiple factors drive the prices of different commodities. For example, the expectation of Fed rate cuts and supply - demand situations affect metal prices; seasonal factors, production, and consumption situations influence agricultural product prices; and supply - demand, policy, and geopolitical factors impact energy and chemical product prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures may experience increased volatility in September, and it is advisable to reduce positions and focus on long positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy favor bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is boosted by safe - haven demand and rate - cut expectations [1]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper is expected to be strong due to Fed rate - cut expectations and tight supply [1]. - Aluminium prices are volatile under domestic consumption off - season and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - Alumina has weak fundamentals, but there are opportunities to go long in the far - month contracts [1]. - Zinc prices have limited downside, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment, Fed rate - cut expectations, and supply - demand in the short term [1]. - Tin prices are trending well in the short term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1]. - PVC pipe and galvanized pipe are bearish due to long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals, and high inventory [1]. - Glass and soda ash are under pressure due to supply surplus [1]. - Coking coal and coke have weakening fundamentals and are expected to be weak [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean oil is re - priced due to factors such as reduced soybean arrivals, consumption season, and trade flow [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are supported by reduced production and supply - reduction expectations [1]. - Cotton has a near - month squeeze logic, and the 01 contract has limited upside [1]. - Sugar is running strongly but with limited height [1]. - Corn is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and new - grain listing should be monitored [1]. - MO1 has limited downside due to import - cost support [1]. - Paper pulp's 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered [1]. - Logs are expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live pigs are bearish due to increased supply and reduced cost [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as India's procurement change, OPEC+ production increase, and tariff issues [1]. - Asphalt's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and follows crude oil [1]. - Styrene is affected by rainfall, cost, and inventory factors [1]. - PTA's production has recovered, and profits have been repaired [1]. - Naphtha and related products are affected by industry reform and supply - demand changes [1]. - Short fiber has increased factory maintenance and growing warehouse receipts [1]. - Urea has limited upside and cost - end support [1]. - PF and PVC are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PG is affected by multiple factors such as capacity reduction, trade, and supply - demand [1]. - Container shipping European Line's freight rate is expected to decline [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently weak, with futures prices falling and spot prices following suit. The market is waiting to see if there will be a mismatch in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. [2] - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are not good, and prices are mainly under pressure. [3] - The eighth round of coke price increase has been temporarily shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak in the short - term. [5] - The iron ore price is supported by the pre - holiday restocking cycle under high iron - making production, but supply increments in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] 3) Summary by Directory Steel - Futures prices of steel contracts are weak, with the near - month contracts moving towards the weak spot prices. The price center has dropped to between electric - arc furnace losses and blast - furnace costs, and the basis has widened significantly. [2] - On the macro level, there is a policy vacuum, and attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming parade on production and market sentiment. [2] - In terms of industry reality, steel supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly both on a monthly and annual basis. [2] - Suggestion: Stop losses on short - term long positions in steel futures and wait for opportunities. The cash - and - carry arbitrage is in the profit - taking window. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly follow the sector. [3] - The industry has turned from losses to profits, supply continues to increase, and it is difficult to have large - scale production cuts in the short - term. [3] - Terminal demand may not improve significantly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, and the risk of a decline in steel - mill production is increasing, which will impact the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. [3] - Suggestion: Sell at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The eighth round of coke price increase has been shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. [5] - The futures market of coking coal and coke is weak, and the black - chain index has fallen. The market is mainly concerned about the verification of steel demand during the peak season. [5] - The supply of coal mines and coking enterprises is still restricted, but due to the difficulty of price transmission downstream and the weakening of thermal - coal prices after the peak season, coking coal and coke prices are also falling. [5] - Suggestion: Industrial customers should pay attention to hedging opportunities after price increases. [7] Iron Ore - The black - metal sector is oscillating, and the influence of the near - month contracts on the far - month contracts has decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming meetings on iron - making production. [6] - In September, the pre - holiday restocking cycle will support the iron - ore price, but the expected supply increment in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] - Suggestion: The support level of the 01 - contract iron - ore price is still valid. [6] Market Data on August 29 Futures Market | Contract | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2601 (Far - month) | 3160.00 | - 22.00 | - 0.69 | | HC2605 (Far - month) | 3352.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.03 | | I2605 (Far - month) | 763.50 | 5.00 | 0.66 | | J2605 (Far - month) | 1733.50 | - 9.50 | - 0.55 | | JM2605 (Far - month) | 1193.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.08 | | RB2510 (Near - month) | 3090.00 | - 26.00 | - 0.83 | | HC2601 (Near - month) | 3346.00 | - 16.00 | - 0.48 | | I2601 (Near - month) | 787.50 | 6.00 | 0.77 | | J2601 (Near - month) | 1643.00 | - 14.50 | - 0.87 | | JM2601 (Near - month) | 1151.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.13 | Spot Market | Product | Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rebar | 3250.00 | - 30.00 | | Tianjin Rebar | 3220.00 | - 20.00 | | Guangzhou Rebar | 3280.00 | - 10.00 | | Tangshan Billet | 2970.00 | - 30.00 | | Shanghai Hot - Rolled Coil | 3370.00 | - 40.00 | | Hangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3440.00 | 30.00 | | Guangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3360.00 | - 50.00 | | Qingdao Super - Special Powder | 670.00 | 15.00 | | Another Iron Ore | 715.00 | 10.00 | | Ganqimaodu Coking Coal | 1180.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao First - Grade Coke | 1530.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao PB Iron Ore | 778.00 | 11.00 | Spread and Basis | Spread/Basis | Value | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 - RB2601 | - 70.00 | 6.00 | | HC2601 - HC2605 | - 6.00 | - 19.00 | | I2601 - I2605 | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | J2601 - J2605 | - 90.50 | - 3.00 | | JM2601 - JM2605 | - 42.00 | 5.00 | | Coil - Rebar Spread | 256.00 | 0.00 | | Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio | 3.92 | - 0.03 | | Coal - Coke Ratio | 1.43 | 0.00 | | Rebar Futures Margin | - 88.63 | - 19.30 | | Coking Futures Margin | 112.17 | 2.42 | | HC Basis (Main Contract) | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | RB Basis (Main Contract) | 160.00 | 9.00 | | I Basis (Main Contract) | 25.00 | 0.00 | | J Basis (Main Contract) | 37.16 | 29.50 | | JM Basis (Main Contract) | 59.00 | 24.00 | [1]

Market Review - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2976.4732, up 0.53%, with a trading volume of 84.76 billion and a turnover of 226.531 billion yuan; the closing price of CSI 300 was 4496.7591, up 0.74%, with a trading volume of 351.94 billion and a turnover of 831.194 billion yuan; the closing price of CSI 1000 was 7438.6767, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 327.64 billion and a turnover of 565.059 billion yuan [4]. - For SSE 50 index options, the trading volume was 77,700 contracts (58,500 call options and 19,300 put options, PCR 0.33), and the open interest was 93,000 contracts (56,700 call options and 36,300 put options, PCR 0.64); for CSI 300 index options, the trading volume was 208,000 contracts (139,000 call options and 69,000 put options, PCR 0.50), and the open interest was 219,400 contracts (118,500 call options and 101,000 put options, PCR 0.85); for CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume was 330,600 contracts (187,100 call options and 143,500 put options, PCR 0.77), and the open interest was 321,800 contracts (151,900 call options and 169,900 put options, PCR 1.12) [4]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3857.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.99%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.23%, the CSI 300 rose 0.74%, the North - bound 50 rose 1.28%, the STAR 50 fell 1.71%, the Wind All - A rose 0.37%, the Wind A500 rose 0.86%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.84%. A - shares traded 2.83 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 3 trillion yuan the previous day [8]. Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility chains and volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including historical volatility values at different time points (5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, etc.) and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to a historical high but unexpectedly lowered the 25/26 planting area, resulting in a tightened supply - demand balance for new - crop US soybeans. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the soybean inventory is expected to continue to accumulate until October and then start to decline. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. In the short term, the price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread Data - On August 29, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 95, down 16; in Tianjin, no data was provided; in Rizhao, it was - 55, down 16. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 15, down 16; in Dongguan, it was - 115, down 16; in Zhanjiang, it was - 85, down 6; in Fangcheng, it was - 75, down 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 9, down 13. The M1 - 5 spread was 235, up 10 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 89, up 14. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread in the factory area was 300, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the main contract was 542, down 14 [7] 2. International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0884. The soybean CNF premium showed different trends for different months in Brazil. The domestic soybean inventory in ports and major oil mills was at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory was rising but lower than last year. The feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days were increasing [7] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA August report adjusted the US soybean yield and planting area, and the 25/26 US soybean ending inventory was lowered. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate reached 69% this week. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September is expected to be over ten million tons, and the inventory is expected to accumulate until October. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] - Demand: Short - term high存栏 of pigs and poultry supports feed demand, but policy controls on pig存栏 and weight may affect long - term supply. The soybean meal price is cost - effective, but downstream transactions this week were cautious [8] 4. Market Outlook - The 101 contract is weak due to Sino - US negotiation expectations and state reserve releases, but the tight supply - demand of US soybeans supports the CBOT soybean price. The difference between US and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums has narrowed. The 001 contract is expected to have limited downside space and a short - term volatile trend [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to factors such as the core PCE rebound in the US in July (highest since February but in line with expectations), the decline of the Michigan consumer confidence index, the weakening of the US dollar, the escalation of the geopolitical situation between Israel and the Houthi armed forces, and the ruling of the US appellate court on most global tariff policies, the price of precious metals is expected to continue to be strong. Short - term strategies suggest holding long positions or buying on dips [3]. - In the long - term, with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases are expected to continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 29, 2025, London gold spot was at $3411.45 per ounce (up 0.5% from the previous day), London silver spot was at $38.82 per ounce (down 0.1%), COMEX gold was at $3470.00 per ounce (up 0.5%), COMEX silver was at $39.49 per ounce (unchanged), AU2510 was at 785.12 yuan per gram (up 0.2%), AG2510 was at 9386 yuan per kilogram (up 0.1%), AU (T + D) was at 782.05 yuan per gram (up 0.2%), and AG (T + D) was at 9357 yuan per kilogram (up 0.1%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On August 29, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.07 yuan per gram (up 2.3% from the previous day), the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 29 yuan per kilogram (down 9.4%), the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 2.99 yuan per gram (down 33.5%), the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 584 yuan per kilogram (down 3.2%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 83.65 (up 0.1%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 87.88 (up 0.6%), AU2512 - 2510 was 2.30 yuan per gram (down 1.7%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 24 yuan per kilogram (up 20.0%) [3]. b. Position Data - As of August 29, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was at 977.68 tons (up 1.01% from the previous day), the silver ETF - SLV was at 15309.99769 tons (down 0.15%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 275767 contracts (up 0.18%), the non - commercial short positions were 61456 contracts (down 1.96%), the non - commercial net long positions were 214311 contracts (up 0.81%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 68227 contracts (up 0.18%), the non - commercial short positions were 21761 contracts (up 0.97%), and the non - commercial net long positions were 46466 contracts (down 0.18%) [3]. c. Inventory Data - On August 29, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 39624 kilograms (up 0.30% from the previous day), the SHFE silver inventory was 1195996 kilograms (up 1.48%), the COMEX gold inventory was 38925853 troy ounces (up 0.42%), and the COMEX silver inventory was 518232360 troy ounces (up 0.20%) [3]. d. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 29, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.10 (down 0.05% from the previous day), the US dollar index was 97.85 (down 0.02%), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.59% (down 0.83%), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23% (up 0.24%), the VIX was 15.36 (up 6.44%), the S&P 500 was 6460.26 (down 0.64%), and NYMEX crude oil was $64.01 per barrel (down 0.48%) [3]. e. Market News and Analysis - **US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index annual rate in July was 2.9% (highest since February, in line with expectations), the PCE price index annual rate was 2.6% (in line with expectations), the core PCE price index monthly rate was 0.3% (in line with expectations), the PCE price index monthly rate was 0.2% (in line with expectations), and personal spending growth rate was 0.5% (highest since September) [3]. - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: The US appellate court ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by President Trump were illegal. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen are preparing to confront Israel after the death of several high - level officials in an Israeli air strike [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The shipping market is currently experiencing a downturn. The overall market sentiment is bearish, with the main reasons being the market's increased expectation of interest rate cuts after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and Trump's threat to impose tariffs on imported furniture [6]. - The demand in the shipping market remains weak. The increase in overtime ships in late August has put significant pressure on spot freight rates. The market has shifted to a buyer - dominated situation, and there are no clear plans from shipping companies to raise prices [7]. - The downward adjustment of OCEAN's freight rates in September is accelerating, which may put pressure on MSK to cut prices to attract cargo. In the short term, freight rates may fall below 1300. The price of the 12 - contract is likely to show a weak and volatile trend [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Freight Index - **SCFI Composite Index**: The current value is 1445, up 2.10% from the previous value of 1415 [5]. - **CCFI Index**: The current value is 1156, down 1.58% from the previous value of 1175 [5]. - **Route - Specific Indexes**: SCFI - US West has a current value of 1923, up 16.97%; SCFIS - US West is 1041, down 5.88%; SCFI - US East is 2866, up 9.68%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1481, down 11.21%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1990, down 8.72%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2145, down 3.60% [5]. 3.2 Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604, the current values are 1374.0, 1577.2, 1285.0, 1571.0, 1400.0, and 1216.0 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 2.26%, - 0.68%, - 2.36%, - 3.05%, - 2.83%, and - 2.63% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 872, 226, 54248, 16197, 4668, and 6667 respectively, with changes of (1), 3, 523, 1880, 110, and 425 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 spreads are - 286.0, 171.0, and 355.0 respectively, with changes of 18.5, (8.7), and (16.7) [5]. 3.3 Market News - Geopolitical news: Yemen's Houthi rebels vow to avenge the deaths of several key members in Israeli air strikes and will continue to support the Palestinian people [5]. - Trade policy news: The US Trade Representative's Office announced the extension of the 15% ceiling tariff on China under the "301 Clause". The US government plans to expand national security tariffs in the coming months, covering industries such as steel, aluminum, semiconductors, heavy trucks, and commercial aircraft [5]. - Shipping market news: The container ship order book has reached 10 million TEU, and alternative - fuel - powered ships will dominate future shipping capacity. Some segments, especially medium - sized ships, are aging rapidly [5]. 3.4 Strategies The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index rose further, with CSI 300 and CSI 500 making up for lost ground. Market liquidity remained abundant, and the daily trading volume of A-shares increased to over 2.5 trillion. The macro news was generally positive, with the manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounding to 49.4%, indicating economic resilience, Shanghai's real estate policy being loosened again, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September rising. The current market liquidity is sufficient, strongly supporting the stock index. Strategically, short - term long positions can be tilted towards IF or IH to reduce position fluctuations and risks [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Currency Market - In the currency market, DROO1 closed at 1.33 with a 1.61bp increase, DR007 at 1.52 with a 2.37bp decrease, GC001 at 1.04 with a 7.00bp increase, GC007 at 1.46 with a 4.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37 with a 0.20bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.64 with a 0.46bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.84 with a 0.44bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.23 with a 1.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2273.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in 1 - year medium - term lending facility (MLF) operations. Due to the maturity of 2077 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF, 400 billion yuan in 91 - day outright reverse repurchases, and 500 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases, the full - caliber net withdrawal was 403.9 billion yuan. This week, 2273.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 288.4 billion, 405.8 billion, 379.9 billion, 416.1 billion, and 782.9 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan in 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [4][5] Stock Index Market - In the stock index market, CSI 300 closed at 4497 with a 0.74% increase, IF current month at 4506 with a 1.0% increase, SSE 50 at 2976 with a 0.53% increase, IH current month at 2980 with a 0.7% increase, CSI 500 at 7044 with a 0.47% increase, IC current month at 6997 with a 0.4% increase, CSI 1000 at 7439 with a 0.11% decrease, and IM current month at 7367 with no change. IF trading volume was 199,696 with a 1.1% increase, IF open interest was 293,331 with a 1.0% increase, IH trading volume was 81,479 with a 0.3% increase, IH open interest was 108,028 with a 0.4% decrease, IC trading volume was 166,467 with a 13.0% decrease, IC open interest was 248,432 with a 0.2% decrease, IM trading volume was 331,183 with a 14.1% decrease, and IM open interest was 388,014 with a 5.1% decrease [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 2.71% to 4496.8, SSE 50 rose 1.63% to 2976.5, CSI 500 rose 3.24% to 7043.9, and CSI 1000 rose 1.03% to 7438.7. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (12.4%), non - ferrous metals (7.2%), electronics (6.3%), comprehensive (5.9%), and power equipment (4%) led the gains last week, while textile and apparel (- 2.9%), banking (- 2.1%), transportation (- 1.5%), light industry manufacturing (- 1.3%), and building decoration (- 0.9%) led the losses [6] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of stock index futures are as follows: IF premium/discount rates for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts are - 4.03%, - 0.70%, 0.60%, and 1.29% respectively; IH premium/discount rates are - 2.28%, - 0.09%, - 0.42%, and - 0.35% respectively; IC premium/discount rates are 12.86%, 10.56%, 9.52%, and 8.88% respectively; IM premium/discount rates are 18.61%, 13.96%, 11.67%, and 10.69% respectively [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, and the weakness of benzene prices has restrained the further increase of PX production to some extent. The spread between PX and MX has recovered, the downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%, domestic PTA plants have gradually resumed operation, and domestic PTA production has rebounded. With the recent improvement in production and sales and inventory reduction, especially the better inventory reduction of filament, profits have been significantly repaired. However, the maintenance expectations of some downstream devices are relatively strong [2] Group 3: Data Summary Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4775 to 4740, a change of -35 [2] - MEG inner - market price increased from 4527 to 4536, a change of 9 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4792 to 4784, a change of -8 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4465 to 4466, a change of 1 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6655 to 6610, a change of -45 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 98 to 148, a change of 50 [2] - 9 - 10 spread decreased from 114 to 84, a change of -30 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber price spread decreased from 955 to 910, a change of -45 [2] - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5895 to 5907, a change of 12 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5895 to 5907, a change of 12 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5995 to 6007, a change of 12 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price decreased from 10350 to 10330, a change of -20 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3695 to 3720, a change of 25 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15210 to 15380, a change of 170 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1138 to 1104, a change of -34.42 [2] - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 321 to 348, a change of 26.91 [2] Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber market: Prices fell, downstream replenishment enthusiasm increased, and on - site transactions were acceptable. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6380 - 6700 for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6500 - 6820 for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6430 - 6600 for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery [2] - Polyester bottle chip market: The market price slightly declined. Polyester raw materials PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly, the supply - side quotations of bottle chips were mixed, downstream terminals were cautiously waiting and watching, and the trading atmosphere was light [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 90.60% to 91.10% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 11.00% to 37.00%, a change of 48.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 62.00% to 62.80% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 49.50% to 49.00% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - With the smooth renewal of the xy safety license, the production of Jiangxi mica mines has been further reduced due to disturbances. On the demand side, the production schedule of downstream battery manufacturers in September has increased, providing some support for prices. However, downstream returns have weakened the transmission of increased demand. Overall, the fundamentals provide limited support for futures prices, and prices are expected to be mainly volatile and weak [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 79,650 yuan, down 350 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 77,350 yuan, down 350 yuan [1] Futures Contract Prices - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 77,000 yuan, down 0.16%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is up 0.26%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 77,180 yuan, up 0.39%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 76,920 yuan, up 0.65%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 76,640 yuan, up 0.66% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 894 US dollars, up 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,250 yuan, up 45 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,975 yuan, up 60 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6,550 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7,650 yuan, up 150 yuan [1][2] Positive Electrode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,115 yuan, down 90 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,900 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 119,100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,925 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,300 yuan/ton; the price spread between electric carbon and the main contract is 2,470 yuan, up 610 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 240 yuan, down 140 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 180 yuan, down 180 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,136 tons, down 4,070 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 43,336 tons; the inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 52,800 tons, up 1,293 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 45,000 tons, up 1,810 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 29,887 tons, up 930 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 76,733 yuan, and the profit is 1,779 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 81,407 yuan, and the profit is - 4,973 yuan [3] Industry Event - A meeting of the Lithium Iron Phosphate Material Branch Council was held on August 22, with 13 participants including industry association officials and representatives from 10 lithium iron phosphate industry chain enterprises. The meeting discussed solutions to industry over - capacity and low - carbon transformation paths [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are oscillating after a significant decline due to macro - commodity factors. The supply side has companies like Brazil's Suzano raising prices and Chile's Arauco adjusting prices and supply. The demand for paper products is basically stable, with some paper mills issuing price - increase letters. The inventory is showing a de - stocking trend [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Futures Price**: On August 29, 2025, SP2601 was 5344, up 0.68% daily and down 0.37% weekly; SP2511 was 5018, up 0.32% daily and down 1.76% weekly; SP2509 was 4966, up 0.40% daily and down 1.82% weekly [1] - **Spot Price**: On August 29, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5700, unchanged daily and down 1.72% weekly; Russian Needle was 5100, unchanged daily and down 0.97% weekly; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180, unchanged daily and up 0.72% weekly [1] - **Outer - disk Quotation**: In August 2025, the outer - disk quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510 dollars, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Cost**: In August 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, down 5.85% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: From July 17 to August 28, 2025, the domestic output of broadleaf pulp ranged from 20.5 to 21.3 tons; chemical mechanical pulp ranged from 20.7 to 21.5 tons [1] - **Shipping Volume**: In July 2025, the shipping volume of pulp to China was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month [1] - **Inventory** - **Pulp Port Inventory**: From July 17 to August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory ranged from 204.8 to 218.1 tons [1] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: From July 17 to August 28, 2025, the futures delivery warehouse inventory ranged from 25.2 to 25.6 tons [1] - **Demand**: From July 17 to August 28, 2025, the output of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated within a certain range [1] 3. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 82 with a quantile level of 0.832; the Silver Star basis was 682 with a quantile level of 0.902 [1] - **Import Profit**: On August 29, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 184 with a quantile level of 0.338; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 2 with a quantile level of 0.629 [1]