Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Sideways observation, close futures-cash arbitrage positions [8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Short on rallies [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Consider partial profit-taking for existing short positions, stay on the sidelines for non-participants [8] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market was weak on Monday, with the black sector leading the decline. Steel spot prices and trading volumes both dropped, and the futures-cash basis widened. The valuation of steel futures has been repaired to a neutral range, but the near-month contracts are under pressure [2]. - The short-term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are mainly under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance [5]. - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 1st, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3165.00 yuan/ton, 3314.00 yuan/ton, 743.00 yuan/ton, 1691.00 yuan/ton, and 1167.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding declines of -10.00 yuan/ton, -45.00 yuan/ton, -20.50 yuan/ton, -54.00 yuan/ton, and -32.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3115.00 yuan/ton, 3303.00 yuan/ton, 766.00 yuan/ton, 1594.50 yuan/ton, and 1118.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 8.00 yuan/ton, -53.00 yuan/ton, -21.00 yuan/ton, -58.50 yuan/ton, and -38.00 yuan/ton [1]. Steel - Steel supply remains at a relatively high level. The short-term production restriction may have a temporary impact on hot metal, but the duration will not be long. Demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly [2]. - The steel futures price has been further revised down to between the electric furnace loss and the blast furnace cost. The basis has widened, and the premium has improved. The valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short-term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The supply continues to increase, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The inventory is high, and the de-stocking pressure persists [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated a price cut for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined [5]. - The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures are trading this expectation in advance. Short-term oversold may lead to price rebounds, and existing short positions can consider partial profit-taking [5]. Iron Ore - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year and the future capacity release of large iron ore projects will limit the upside potential of iron ore prices [6].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - The supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is expected to be tight, which supports the CBOT US soybean futures. With the support of import costs, the downside space below the 01 contract is limited. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Related Content 1. Spot and Spread Data - **Spot Basis**: The 43% soybean meal spot basis varies by location. For example, in Dalian it's 96, in Tianjin it's 46 - 4, and in different regions it shows different values and changes. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 34 with a change of 25 [6]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 386 with a change of 5, and the futures price spread of the main contract is 541 with a change of - 1. The RM1 - 5 spread is 107, and the M1 - 5 spread is 240 [6][7]. - **Other Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal price spread and relevant data are also presented, along with the soybean CNF premium - continuous month data and the relationship between the US dollar - RMB exchange rate and relevant profits [7]. 2. Supply Situation - **US Soybeans**: The ISDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre, but lowered the planting area in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is reduced to 290 million bushels. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans this week reached 69%, but due to less rainfall and low temperature in the producing areas, the good - excellent rate may decline slightly [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: The expected arrival of soybeans in China in September is over 10 million tons, and the inventory is in the accumulation cycle. In October, the inventory is expected to start decreasing, and the supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [7][8]. 3. Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the feed demand. However, policy guidance aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which will affect the long - term supply of pigs. Some regions use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the提货 volume is at a high level. The downstream transactions of soybean meal this week are cautious [8]. 4. Inventory Situation - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level and is in the accumulation cycle [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal inventory is increasing, lower than the same period last year, and is expected to continue accumulating. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Sideways, close out cash-futures arbitrage [8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Short on rallies [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Consider partial profit-taking on existing short positions, stay on the sidelines for new entrants [8] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market was weak on Monday, with the black sector leading the decline. Steel spot prices fell in both volume and price. The market is awaiting the impact of the upcoming parade on production and market sentiment, and is watching for potential mismatches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. [2] - The short-term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are not good, and prices are under pressure. The market sentiment is volatile, and the supply is increasing while the demand may not improve significantly. [3] - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated price cuts for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September. [5] - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year will limit the upside potential. [6] Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 1st, the far-month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3165.00, 3314.00, 743.00, 1691.00, and 1167.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -10.00, -45.00, -20.50, -54.00, and -32.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of -0.31%, -1.34%, -2.69%, -3.09%, and -2.67% respectively. [1] - The near-month contract closing prices of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 on September 1st were 3115.00, 3303.00, 766.00, 1594.50, and 1118.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 8.00, -53.00, -21.00, -58.50, and -38.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of 0.26%, -1.58%, -2.67%, -3.54%, and -3.29% respectively. [1] Steel - Steel supply remains at a relatively high level. The short-term production restrictions may have a short-lived impact on hot metal. Demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the hot-rolled coil inventory is at a reasonable level. [2] - The steel futures price has been revised down to between the electric furnace loss and the blast furnace cost, and the basis has widened significantly. The valuation of steel futures has been restored to a neutral range. [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short-term market sentiment is volatile, and the trading style of the black sector changes rapidly. The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is increasing, while the terminal demand may not improve significantly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. [3] - The industry inventory is still high, and there is pressure to reduce inventory. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated price cuts for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined. [5] - The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures market is already pricing in this expectation. [5] Iron Ore - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year will limit the upside potential. [6] - The market is still debating the impact of anti-monopoly policies, and the focus next week is on the SCO Summit and the parade, with attention on whether the decline in hot metal exceeds expectations. [6]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a "Sugar Data Daily" by ITG Guomao Futures [3] - The report date is September 2, 2025 [4] - The analyst is Xie Wei with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Sugar Price Data Spot Prices - The spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi is 6000 yuan/ton with no change [4] - The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan is 5825 yuan/ton with no change [4] - The spot price in Dali, Yunnan is 5725 yuan/ton with no change [4] - The spot price in Rizhao, Shandong is 6050 yuan/ton with no change [4] Futures Prices - SR09 is 5623 yuan with an increase of 32 [4] - SR01 is 5609 yuan with an increase of 5 [4] Price Spreads - The spread between SR09 and SR01 is 14, up 27 [4] Group 3: Exchange Rate and Other Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1489, up 0.0005 [4] - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212 [4] - The exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The ice raw sugar主力 price is 16.34 with no change [4] - The London white sugar主力 price is 573, up 3 [4] - The Brent crude oil主力 price is 67.46 with no change [4] Group 4: Core View - During the new crushing season alternation, the supply is diverse, the competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to continue to run on the high side. With the US July PC data in line with expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is controllable, and the decline of the August Michigan consumer confidence index, the expectation of the Fed's September interest rate cut is further strengthened. Coupled with geopolitical tensions and the ruling that most of the US government's global tariff policies are illegal, the precious metal prices have strongly rebounded. Silver has performed much stronger than gold, and multi - orders can continue to be held or go long on dips [5]. - In the medium - to - long - term, due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, and the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, London gold spot rose 2.0% to $3478.93 per ounce, London silver spot rose 4.4% to $40.52 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $3546.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 4.8% to $41.37 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2510 rose 2.0% to 800.56 yuan per gram, and AG2510 rose 4.1% to 9775 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Regarding price differences, the spread between domestic and foreign gold (TD - London) was - 3.91 yuan per gram on September 1, 2025, with a 27.4% increase; the spread between domestic and foreign silver (TD - London) was - 28 yuan per kilogram, with a - 3.4% decrease [5]. Position Data - As of August 29, 2025, compared with August 28, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 977.68 tons, up 1.01%; the silver ETF - SLV was 15309.99769 tons, down 0.15%. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long positions increased 0.18%, the short positions decreased 1.96%, and the net long positions increased 0.81%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long positions increased 0.97%, the short positions decreased 0.18%, and the net long positions increased [5]. Inventory Data - From August 28 to August 29, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.42% to 38925853 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20% to 518232360 troy ounces. Data for SHFE gold and silver inventories were not available [5]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 0.06% to 7.11. The US dollar index fell 0.02% to 97.85, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.83% to 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.23%, the VIX rose 6.44% to 15.36, the S&P 500 fell 0.64% to 6460.26, and NYMEX crude oil fell 0.48% to $64.01 [5]. Economic Data and Events - The US July core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, the highest since February, in line with expectations; the July PCE price index annual rate was 2.6%, in line with expectations; the July core PCE price index monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations; the July PCE price index monthly rate was 0.2%, in line with expectations; the July personal spending monthly rate was 0.5%, the highest since September, in line with expectations; the July personal income monthly rate was 0.4%, in line with expectations [5]. - On August 29, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the US government's global tariff policies were illegal, and these tariff - increasing measures could be maintained until October 14 for the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative and deputy minister visited the US and held talks with relevant US government officials and business representatives [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current market liquidity remains abundant, with A - share daily trading volume at a relatively high level above 2.5 trillion. The macro - level influencing factors are generally favorable, with the 8 - month China manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 49.4% and an increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Strategically, short - term long positions can be tilted towards IF or IH to reduce position fluctuations and risks [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Financial Instruments - The closing price of DR001 is 1.31, down 1.73bp; DR007 is 1.45, down 7.04bp; GC001 is 1.02, down 2.00bp; GC007 is 1.44, down 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M is 1.55, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year is 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond is 1.36, down 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury bond is 1.59, down 1.00bp; 10 - year treasury bond is 1.77, down 1.00bp; 10 - year US treasury bond is 4.23, up 1.00bp [4]. - The closing price of CSI 300 is 4524, up 0.60%; SSE 50 is 2981, up 0.16%; CSI 500 is 7110, up 0.94%; CSI 1000 is 7501, up 0.84%. The trading volume of IF is 144297, down 27.7%; its open interest is 276618, down 5.7%. The trading volume of IH is 54597, down 33.0%; its open interest is down 10.2%. The trading volume of IC is 126661, down 23.9%; its open interest is 235990, down 5.0%. The trading volume of IM is 251805, down 24.0%; its open interest is 375228, down 3.3% [6]. Central Bank Operations - Last week, the central bank conducted 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, 400 billion yuan of 91 - day outright repurchases, and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day outright repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 403.9 billion yuan in all - caliber funds [4]. - This week, 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 288.4 billion, 405.8 billion, 379.9 billion, 416.1 billion, and 782.9 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day outright repurchases will mature on Friday [5]. Market Conditions - Yesterday, most industry sectors closed higher. The precious metals sector soared, with jewelry, biological products, energy metals, medical services, and chemical pharmaceuticals leading the gains, while insurance and aerospace sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 48.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6]. Futures Premium and Discount - The premium rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 5.88%, 3.63%, 2.66%, and 2.32% respectively. The premium rates of IH are 1.09%, 0.85%, 0.14%, and - 0.12% respectively. The premium rate of IC for the current - month contract is 27.23%. The premium rates of IM for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 32.59%, 19.78%, 14.34%, and 12.31% respectively [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spread between the November and January contracts is expected to narrow [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 1, 2025, SP2601 was 5336, down 0.15% day-on-day and 1.22% week-on-week; SP2511 was 5040, up 0.44% day-on-day and down 1.87% week-on-week; SP2509 was 4986, up 0.40% day-on-day and down 2.00% week-on-week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On September 1, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5700, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.72% week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5100, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.54% week-on-week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.72% week-on-week [1] - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: In September 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: In September 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, down 5.85% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Production**: In the week of August 28, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 20.6 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 20.9 tons [1] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: On August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 208.4 tons, down 4.8 tons from the previous period, a 2.3% decrease [1] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On August 28, 2025, it was 24.9 tons [1] Demand - **Finished Paper Production**: In the week of August 28, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.50 tons; coated paper was 7.90 tons; tissue paper was 28.18 tons; white cardboard was 32.10 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 1, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 60, with a quantile level of 0.812; Silver Star basis was 660, with a quantile level of 0.889 [1] - **Import Profit**: On September 1, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 184, with a quantile level of 0.338; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164, with a quantile level of 0.477 [1] Summary - **Supply**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified August quotes, with coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [1] - **Demand**: Current paper product demand is basically stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard paper mills have issued price increase letters, and the implementation situation remains to be seen [1] - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 208.4 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PTA market had limited overall fluctuations, with sufficient spot supply, a weakening spot basis, and a slight decline in prices. The expansion of the spread between PX and naphtha and the weak benzene price restricted the further increase in PX production. With the improvement in recent sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction of filament inventory, profits were significantly repaired, but some downstream devices had strong maintenance expectations [2]. - The ethylene glycol price rebounded. The planned production cut of South Korean naphtha cracking units and the continuous postponement of the maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol units, especially Saudi Arabian units, would have a significant impact on the market outlook, boosting the ethylene glycol price. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol decreased, polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price decreased from 485.2 yuan/barrel on August 29, 2025, to 483.5 yuan/barrel on September 1, 2025, a decrease of 1.70 yuan/barrel. PTA-SC increased from 1258.0 yuan/ton to 1258.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3568 to 1.3581, an increase of 0.0014 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 849 to 848, a decrease of 1. The PX-naphtha spread decreased from 252 to 251, a decrease of 1 [2]. - The PTA主力期价 decreased from 4784 yuan/ton to 4772 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.0 yuan/ton. The PTA现货价格 decreased from 4740 yuan/ton to 4720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 197.3 yuan/ton to 180.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.3 yuan/ton. The盘面加工费 decreased from 231.3 yuan/ton to 222.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.3 yuan/ton. The主力基差 decreased from (35) to (42), a decrease of 7.0. The PTA仓单数量 decreased from 29938 to 29742, a decrease of 196 [2]. - The MEG主力期价 decreased from 4466 yuan/ton to 4427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.0 yuan/ton. MEG-石脑油 increased from (101.88) to (101.07), an increase of 0.8. MEG内盘 decreased from 4536 yuan/ton to 4513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.0 yuan/ton. The主力基差 increased from 67 to 68, an increase of 1.0 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - The PX开工率 remained unchanged at 82.59%. The PTA开工率 increased from 70.76% to 72.55%, an increase of 1.79%. The MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 62.03%. The聚酯负荷 increased from 87.15% to 87.99%, an increase of 0.84% [2]. Product Data - Among polyester filaments, POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6860, POY现金流 increased from 38 to 63, an increase of 25.0; FDY150D/96F decreased from 7140 to 7130, a decrease of 10.0, FDY现金流 increased from (182) to (167), an increase of 15.0; DTY150D/48F decreased from 8040 to 8035, a decrease of 5.0, DTY现金流 increased from 18 to 38, an increase of 20.0; the长丝产销 decreased from 42% to 40%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - For polyester staple fibers, 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6610 to 6605, a decrease of 5, 涤短现金流 increased from 138 to 158, an increase of 20.0, and the短纤产销 decreased from 45% to 39%, a decrease of 6% [2]. - For polyester chips, the半光切片 decreased from 5850 to 5815, a decrease of 35.0, 切片现金流 decreased from (72) to (82), a decrease of 10.0, and the切片产销 decreased from 78% to 65%, a decrease of 13% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance today, and another 2.5 million - ton device was expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, and the weak benzene price has restrained the further increase in PX output to some extent. The spread between PX and MX has recovered. The downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%. Domestic PTA plants have gradually resumed operation, and domestic PTA output has rebounded. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction in filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, there are strong expectations for maintenance of some downstream devices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4740 to 4720, a change of -20 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4536 to 4513, a change of -23 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4784 to 4772, a change of -12 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4466 to 4427, a change of -39 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6610 to 6605, a change of -5 [2] - Short - fiber basis decreased from 148 to 136, a change of -12 [2] - 9 - 10 spread increased from 84 to 78, a change of 6 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5700 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 910 to 905, a change of -5 [2] - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5907 to 5936, a change of 29 [2] - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5907 to 5936, a change of 29 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6007 to 6036, a change of 29 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 780 to 775, a change of -5 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 335 to 389, a change of 53.81 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10330 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3720 to 3725, a change of 5 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 15380 to 15175, a change of -205 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1104 to 1185, a change of 80.80 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7120 to 7130, a change of 10 [2] - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 348 to 383, a change of 34.81 [2] - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7470 to 7500, a change of 30 [2] Load and Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 90.60% to 91.10%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 48.00% to 40.00%, a change of -8.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 62.00% to 62.80%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 49.50% to 49.00%, a change of 0.01 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for natural rubber is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market is affected by continuous disturbances in the weather of the producing areas, with strong cost support. The inventory in the middle reaches has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated slightly. The sentiment in the commodity market is weak, so it may maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply in domestic, Thai, and Vietnamese producing areas is tight due to weather disturbances, driving up raw material prices [3] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in the next period [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 24, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [3][102] - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread has slightly widened, and the RU - NR spread has slightly narrowed [3] - **Profit**: The theoretical production profits of Thai standard rubber, Hainan concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber have all shown losses [3] - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still high [3] - **Commodity Market**: The overall atmosphere is bearish as it approaches the 09 - contract delivery, and the previous hype sentiment has cooled down [3] - **Investment View**: It is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on BR and short on NR [3] Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Review**: Affected by rainfall in the producing areas, natural rubber has maintained an oscillating performance. The supply is less than expected, the raw material price is high, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the market sentiment is weak [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have rebounded slightly [9] - **Position on the Disk**: The total position of NR has increased significantly [23] - **Spread on the Disk**: The RU1 - 9 spread has declined [31] Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Weather in Producing Areas**: Rainfall in the producing areas continues to cause disturbances [39] - **Output of Major Producing Countries**: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63] - **Export Volume of Major Producing Countries**: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73] - **China's Import**: From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber (+21.82%). In July, the import volume increased slightly month - on - month [86][101] - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [102] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has fluctuated slightly and is expected to decline slightly in the next period [118] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [124] - **Tire Exports**: From January to July, China's rubber tire exports were 5.34 million tons (+4.9%) [134] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber is in the red, while the production profit of Thai latex is stable [142]