投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/7/3 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/1 | 2025/7/2 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4980 | 4925 | (55.00) | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4328 | 4362 | 34. 00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨44至6622。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4800 | 4794 | (6.00) | 短纤生产企业价格下调,贸易商价格偏暖震荡, | | MEG收盘价 | 4273 | 4299 | 26. 00 | 下游按需采买,市场成交不振。1.56dtex*38mm | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6820 | 6800 | (20.00) | 半光本白(1. 4D)涤纶短纤华东市场价格在6600- | | 短纤基差 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 2, 2025, SP2601 was 5284 with a daily increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; SP2507 was 5048 with a daily increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.24%; SP2509 was 5072 with a daily increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 0.04% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 2, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900 with no daily change and a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%; the spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120 with no daily and year - on - year change; the spot price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4020 with no daily change and a year - on - year decrease of 0.74% [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In July 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 560 with no change; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620 with no change [1] - **Import Costs**: In July 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4587 with no change; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 with no change [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [1] - **Shipment Volume to China**: In April 2025, the pulp shipment volume to China was 1353, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1] - **Domestic Production**: For broad - leaf pulp, the domestic production on June 26, 2025, was 20.6 tons; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 20.3 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 216.3 tons, the delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons, the double - offset paper inventory was 20.40 tons, and the copper - plate paper inventory was 7.60 tons [1] - **Finished Paper Production**: On June 26, 2025, the production of double - offset paper was 20.40 tons, copper - plate paper was 7.60 tons, tissue paper was 28.00 tons, and white cardboard was 30.30 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 2, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 48 with a quantile level of 0.797; the Silver Star basis was 828 with a quantile level of 0.959 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 2, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16 with a quantile level of 0.65; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 567 with a quantile level of 0.186 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: On June 20, 2025, Arauco decided to lower the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) in June by 20 dollars per ton to 720 dollars per ton. The shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month, showing an increase in supply volume and a decrease in price [1] - **Demand**: In the current week, the production of major finished papers decreased. The prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period and a 2.0% month - on - month decrease, showing a de - stocking trend [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The black sector led the rise on Wednesday, driven by the "anti - involution" concept, but without substantial supply - side policies, the positive impact on profits and prices may not last. In the off - season, there is no strong rebound drive for the black sector [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the spot market is performing well, but the current situation is not comparable to the 2015 supply - side reform bull market. Short - term empty orders are advised to be avoided, and industrial customers can build cash - and - carry positions [5]. - In the silicon iron and manganese silicon market, trading is based on the "anti - involution" policy expectation, with prices oscillating strongly. Industrial customers should conduct futures - cash hedging [6]. - For iron ore, it is in an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to whether the "anti - involution" sentiment can drive it to break through the upper limit [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On July 2, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures all rose, with the far - month RB2601 rising 2.46% and the near - month RB2510 rising 2.61%. The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar changed, with the HC basis falling 45 yuan/ton and the RB basis rising 8 yuan/ton. In the current environment, there is no strong rebound drive for the black sector. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and focus on the time node for entering cash - and - carry positions [2][4][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, coking coal auction transactions were good, and most prices rose. On the futures side, affected by the news of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the black sector except coking coal hit new highs. The iron - making water output remained above 241wt, but the market worried about off - season risks. It is recommended that short - term empty orders be avoided, and industrial customers should build cash - and - carry positions [5]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The market is trading on the "anti - involution" policy expectation, with an overall bullish sentiment. The supply of silicon iron is increasing slightly, and demand is also rising. The supply of manganese silicon is rising, and demand is supported. It is recommended to buy call options at low prices [6][8]. Iron Ore - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on governance has made the supply - side reform ferment. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production restrictions on iron - making water and whether the production - restriction storm will spread. Iron ore is in an oscillating range, and it is recommended to short when the price reaches the upper limit of the range [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate is expected to intensify as the purchasing pace slows. The price is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. In addition, due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is relatively large, deepening the pattern of oversupply and dragging down the price increase, and there are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,050 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2507 is 63,980 yuan, up 2.99%; lithium carbonate 2508 is 64,060 yuan, up 2.99%; lithium carbonate 2509 is 63,960 yuan, up 3.19%; lithium carbonate 2510 is 63,700 yuan, up 3.07%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 63,560 yuan, up 3.01% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 632 yuan, up 7 yuan [1] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 740 yuan, up 20 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1275 yuan, up 20 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4275 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5100 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,550 yuan, up 55 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,520 yuan, down 10 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,455 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,165 yuan, down 10 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2310 yuan, down 830 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 100 yuan, up 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 360 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,837.59032 tons, up 1936.407 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is not provided; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,635 tons, up 269 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 37,170 tons, up 1260 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 23,180 tons, up 240 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 60,326 yuan, and the profit is 470 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 65,253 yuan, and the profit is - 5965 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium producer in Africa, Zimbabwe banned the export of lithium ore in 2022 to encourage miners to do more processing domestically [3]

Market Review - The closing prices, price changes (%), trading volumes (in billions of yuan), and turnovers (in billions) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices are presented. The Shanghai 50 closed at 2717.7128 with a 0.21% increase, trading volume of 661.44 billion yuan and turnover of 33.03 billion; the CSI 300 closed at 3942.762 with a 0.17% increase, trading volume of 2360.70 billion yuan and turnover of 128.96 billion; the CSI 1000 closed at 6373.7679 with a 0.28% increase, trading volume of 3343.02 billion yuan and turnover of 243.54 billion [4]. - The trading volumes of call and put options, daily trading volumes, option open - interests, and put - call ratios (PCR) of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 index options on the CFFEX are provided. For example, the Shanghai 50 option trading volume was 1.74 million contracts, with 1.24 million call options and 0.50 million put options, and a PCR of 0.40, and an open - interest of 6.24 million contracts [4]. Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility chains and next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curves of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are analyzed, including maximum, minimum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values and current values of historical volatility [9][10]. Overall Market Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 13.32 points, or 0.39%, at 3457.75, with a trading volume of 5535.57 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 11.17 points, or 0.11%, at 10476.29, with a trading volume of 9124.79 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed down 5.09 points, or 0.24%, at 2147.92, with a trading volume of 4444.96 billion yuan; the CSI 300 closed up 6.68 points, or 0.17%, at 3942.76, with a trading volume of 2360.7 billion yuan [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Aluminum, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Nickel, Copper, Zinc [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Shandong Gasoline, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, PVC, LPG [1] - **Neutral or Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Benzene, Styrene, Chlor - Alkali, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the gold price has stabilized and rebounded. The macro and commodity attributes may still support the silver price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] - The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong aluminum price. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices [1] - The supply - side impact of some metal - related events is limited, and metal prices are affected by macro - sentiment and related metal price movements [1] - For agricultural products, factors such as production forecasts, policy changes, and price differentials affect market trends. For example, Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and domestic corn and soybean meal have different outlooks [1] - In the energy and chemical sectors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors influence prices. For instance, the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ actions affect oil prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Currently in a period of asset - liability and weak economy, but the central bank's recent interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside [1] - **Gold**: The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the price has stabilized and rebounded [1] - **Silver**: The macro and commodity attributes may still support the price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recently, the market risk appetite has recovered, and the short - term price is strong due to the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper [1] - **Aluminum**: The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong price [1] - **Alumina**: The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices, and it is short - term strong [1] - **Zinc**: Affected by news, it fell in the short term, but rebounded with the sharp rise in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment [1] - **Nickel**: After the improvement in commodity sentiment, the price rebounded from the short - term bottom, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot trading has improved periodically, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Short - term operation is recommended [1] - **Tin**: The supply of mines is difficult to recover in the short term, and the price rebounded with the improvement of macro - sentiment [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: There are short - term factory production restrictions. Temporarily wait and see [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term production has increased slightly, demand is weakening, supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures are at a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: According to Malay high - frequency data, it is likely to accumulate inventory in June, which is bearish [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Before the anti - dumping investigation result of Canadian rapeseed is announced, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums; in the long term, macro - uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the long - term production may be affected by the crude oil price [1] - **Corn**: The short - term is affected by import and auction news, and the C09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly later [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: The Middle East situation has cooled, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1] - **Shandong Gasoline**: Affected by cost and demand factors, it is bearish [1] - **Natural Rubber and BR Rubber**: The downstream demand is weakening, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is bearish [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: The market is affected by factors such as device maintenance, supply - demand, and cost [1] - **PVC and Chlor - Alkali**: After the end of maintenance, new devices are put into production, and the supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **LPG**: The 7 - month CP price has been lowered, and the short - term price has a downward space [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The freight rate is expected to peak in mid - July, and the subsequent capacity deployment is sufficient [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction lies in the downstream's "just - in - time procurement + multiple small - batch" strategy, and there is no production cut at the mining end. In the short term, the purchase by downstream traders drives the price to rebound, but the inventory is not actually absorbed by the end - users. This gives hedging space to the lithium salt end, further creating upward pressure. In the short term, the futures price of lithium carbonate is expected to be mainly in a volatile and weak trend [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,300 with no change, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 59,700 with no change [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 62,980 with a 0.16% increase; 2508 is 62,840 with a 0.1% increase; 2509 is 62,780 with a 0.16% increase; 2510 is 62,580 with a - 0.03% change; 2511 is 62,480 with a 0.03% increase [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 625 with a decrease of 5; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 720; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1255; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4275 with a decrease of 75; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5100 with a decrease of 100 [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,495; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,530 with a decrease of 20; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,455; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,175 with a decrease of 20 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 with no change; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1480 with a decrease of 520; the spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract is 60 with an increase of 80; the spread between the near - month and the second - consecutive contract is 260 with an increase of 100 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,837 with an increase of 1936; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 59,032 with an increase of 407; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,635 with an increase of 269; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 37,170 with an increase of 1260; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 22,940 with an increase of 312 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 60,458, and the profit is - 8; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 6984 [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to promote local processing. It banned the export of lithium ore in 2022 to encourage more local processing by miners [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, the pulp market is expected to be bearish [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On July 1, 2025, for futures prices, SP2601 was 5216, down 0.72% day - on - day and 2.50% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5060, up 1.00% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; SP2509 was 5026, down 0.75% day - on - day and 2.14% week - on - week [1] - For spot prices, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.67% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.58% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4020, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.74% week - on - week [1] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes (in dollars): Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons in April 2025, down 30.80% compared to March [1] - In terms of domestic production, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different weeks in June 2025 [1] Inventory - The pulp port inventory on different dates in June 2025 fluctuated, with 216.3 tons on June 26, 2025, down 4.5 tons from the previous period and 2.0% week - on - week [1] - The delivery warehouse inventory also fluctuated, with 24.60 tons on June 26, 2025 [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard decreased this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On July 1, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 94 with a quantile level of 0.84; the Silver Star basis was 874 with a quantile level of 0.972 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16 with a quantile level of 0.65; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567 with a quantile level of 0.186 [1] Summary - Supply side: On June 20, Arauco lowered the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) for June by $20/ton to $720/ton, and the shipment volume to China increased by 3.3% month - on - month, showing an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1] - Demand side: The production of major finished papers decreased this week, and the prices of finished papers were low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - Inventory side: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - USDA planting area report and quarterly inventory report adjustments are limited, with an overall neutral impact [8] - The US soybean supply and demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation, and the CBOT US soybean futures and domestic soybean meal futures are more sensitive to the weather in US production areas [8] - Under the current China - US tariff policy, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter, supporting the expected gradual increase of the soybean meal futures price center. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for the far - month M01 contract [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on July 1st, the basis in Dalian is - 11, in Rizhao is - 81, in Tianjin is - 41, in Zhangjiagang is - 121, in Dongguan is - 111, in Zhanjiang is - 111, and in Fangcheng is - 111 [6] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is - 96, with a decline of - 54 [6] - The M9 - M1 spread and M9 - RM9 spread are presented, and the RM9 - 1 spread has values such as 280, 1200, etc. in different periods [6][7] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 375, with a decline of - 14, and the main - contract price difference is 360 [7] 3.2 Exchange Rate, Profit, and Premium Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 7.1122, and the E - type soybean import premium is 111.00 cents per bushel [7] - The import soybean futures gross profit is 232 yuan per ton, with no change [7] 3.3 Inventory Data - Information on China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 - 2025 is presented [7] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In June, July, and August in China, the expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is over 10 million tons per month. The new - crop US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is tight, with the US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropping to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean - growing areas will be favorable for growth in the next two weeks [7] - Demand: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before November, poultry inventory remains high, soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, feed addition ratio increases, and提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein [7][8] - Inventory: As of last Friday, domestic soybeans and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a historical high for the same period, while soybean meal inventory is at a historical low, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days continue to rise [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to concerns about tariff policy uncertainty and the likely passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by the US Senate, along with the continuous decline of the US dollar index, the precious metal prices are boosted. Gold prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term, while silver will follow gold's rise but its upside may be limited by factors such as the slowdown in the price increase of platinum and the weakening of its own fundamental demand [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 1, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, London gold spot rose 1.2% to $3331.05 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.1% to $36.25 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 1.2% to $3342.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.2% to $36.51 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed varying degrees of increase [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 1, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was -$3.19 per gram, with a 10.0% increase from June 30; the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was -$26 per kilogram, with a 30.0% increase. Other price spreads and ratios also had different changes [3]. Position Data - As of June 30, 2025, compared with June 27, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position decreased by 0.24% to 952.53 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position decreased by 0.27% to 14826.61263 tons. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different degrees of decline and increase [3]. Inventory Data - On July 1, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory increased by 1.18% to 18453.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory increased by 3.01% to 1338844.00 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory remained basically unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.12% [3]. Other Market Data - On July 1, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.07% to 7.15. The US dollar index decreased by 0.27%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.50%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 1.17%, the VIX increased by 2.51%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.52%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.15% [4].