投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | 聚酯数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/4 | | 能源化工研究中心 | | | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/3 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | 8.10 | INE原油(元/桶) SC | 498. 2 | 506. 3 | | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,盘中原油行情偏弱震荡,或担忧 | | 1066. 7 | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1173.5 | | -106. 86 | 下游减产,PTA现货市场气氛不佳,市场递盘基差偏 低,现货基差继续走弱。 | | -0. 0342 | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3241 | 1. 2899 | | | | CFR中国PX | | 854 | 849 | -5 | | | 283 | PX PX-石脑油价差 | | 277 | -7 | | | PT ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 一 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 专播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 47. 00% 63.00% 16. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67. 00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始第■ (零收) 配日员(左特) t325年滚纱价格 ■ 1.4D直红杀短 震想规金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 Ta 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 - 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold prices are restricted by improved market risk appetite due to trade agreements and export restrictions relief. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties and the potential passage of the Trump administration's bill, gold prices are expected to oscillate. Silver prices break through the $87 per ounce mark but may not continue unilateral upward movement because of the impact on interest - rate cut expectations. In the long - term, considering the trade war background, possible Fed rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **内外盘金/银15点价格**: On July 3, 2025, London gold spot was $3362.28 per ounce, London silver spot was $36.76 per ounce, COMEX gold was $3372.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver was $37.03 per ounce. Compared with July 2, gold prices rose by about 0.9% and silver prices by about 2.2% - 2.4%. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed varying degrees of increase [5]. - **价差/比价跟踪**: As of July 3, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was -$1.92 per gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was -$20 per kilogram. Compared with July 2, the gold spread decreased by 19.0% and the silver spread increased by 53.8%. The gold and silver price ratios also changed to different extents [5]. Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 2, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 14846.12421 tons. COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions also changed compared with July 1, with some positions showing a decline [5]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On July 3, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 18456.00 kilograms, showing no change compared with July 2, and SHFE silver inventory was 1340792.00 kilograms, up 0.16%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.20% [5]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - **Rates and Indexes**: On July 3, 2025, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, down 0.03% compared with July 2. The dollar index was 96.78, up 0.14%. Other rates such as the 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYMEX crude oil also showed different percentage changes [5]. Market News - **Trade and Policy News**: Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, with Vietnam imposing tariffs on exports to the US and opening its market. The US lifted export restrictions on Chinese chip design software and removed a restrictive license requirement for ethane exports to China. The Trump administration's "big and beautiful" bill advanced in the House of Representatives. US economic data such as non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and factory orders were released, and the US Treasury Secretary hinted at possible Fed rate cuts [5].

Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1862, 1369, 2578, 161, 4717, 2030, 2123, and 2985 respectively [4]. - The previous values are 1870, 1342, 2772, 2083, 5352, 1835, 1937, and 3063 respectively [4]. - The percentage changes are -0.43%, 2.00%, -7.00%, -22.28%, -11.86%, 10.63%, 9.60%, and -2.55% respectively [4]. Contracts - The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1319.9, 1896.9, 1363.9, 1538.7, 1338.7, and 1172.9 respectively [4]. - The previous values are 1310.0, 1883.5, 1367.9, 1528.0, 1325.2, and 1174.2 respectively [4]. - The percentage changes are 0.76%, 0.71%, -0.29%, 0.70%, 1.02%, and -0.11% respectively [4]. Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 371, 35947, 31361, 2008, 3781, and 5782 respectively [4]. - The previous positions are 352, 36332, 31302, 6171, 3812, and 5682 respectively [4]. - The changes in positions are 19, -385, 59, -4163, -31, and 100 respectively [4]. Monthly Spreads - The current monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are 533.0, -174.8, and 365.8 respectively [4]. - The previous monthly spreads are 515.6, -160.1, and 353.8 respectively [4]. - The changes in monthly spreads are 17.4, -14.7, and 12.0 respectively [4]. Market News - After the JOLTS data release, traders slightly reduced the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut. A rate cut is expected to start in September, with a 21% probability of a cut in July [4]. - The White House said that Trump may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July [5]. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam General Secretary Su Lin, reducing US tariffs on Vietnamese products to 20% in exchange for full access to the Vietnamese market [5]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that a "substantial majority" of Fed members expect to cut interest rates later this year [6]. - Trump's tariff policy and low river levels have caused the worst supply - chain congestion at European ports since the pandemic, especially in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg, expected to last for at least several months [6]. - US officials are seeking phased agreements with countries actively involved in trade negotiations, aiming for an agreement by July 9 [7]. EC Market Analysis Overview - The market is in a volatile state [8]. Spot Market - The central price in the second week of July is about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's price remained flat in the third week, higher than the expected decline [9]. - There is a market differentiation. Some OCEAN Alliance routes have strong quotes, and the PA Alliance plans to raise prices later this month, but some shipping companies report reduced inventory [9]. - From IPL quotes, there is sufficient cabin space, and shipping companies are still trying to attract cargo [9]. Futures Market - Affected by Maersk's flat price, contract 2508 has recovered from a deep discount, but the probability of continuous rise is low, and it will mainly fluctuate [10]. Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread and consider the 8 - 10 calendar spread. Due to less shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30, Maersk's strong performance in week 3 of July, and expected European congestion, contract 08 may outperform contract 10 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, domestic soybean meal is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation, and the spot price remains under pressure. The supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans is expected to remain tight. Under the current China - US tariff policy, domestic soybean meal has a de - stocking expectation. It is recommended to adopt a long - at - low strategy for the far - month M01 contract, while also paying attention to weather and policy changes [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 2nd, in Dalian and Rizhao it was - 4 to - 84 with a change of - 3; in Tianjin it was - 24 with a change of 17; in Zhangjiagang it was - 104 with a change of 17; in Dongguan it was - 104; in Zhanjiang it was - 94 with a change of 17; in Fangcheng it was - 94 with a change of 17. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 108 with a change of - 12. The M9 - 1 spread was - 43 [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 370 with a change of 10, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 366 with a change of - 9 [7] b. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1179, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 95.00 cents per bushel. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 232 yuan per ton with no change [7] c. Inventory Data - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to be stocked. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, while soybean meal inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period in history, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises continues to increase [7][8] d. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has declined to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth [7] - Demand: Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the inventory of poultry remains high, the cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is replacing corn, reducing the use of protein [7] e. Trading Suggestion - It is recommended to adopt a long - at - low strategy for the far - month M01 contract, while also paying attention to weather and policy changes [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PE, PVC [1] - **Bearish**: Silver, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Sinter, Ferroalloy, Glass, Soda Ash, Bitumen, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, PE, PP, PVC, Chlor - Alkali [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and with mediocre domestic and foreign positive factors, the stock index faces resistance in breaking upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space. The price of gold is supported by factors such as renewed tariff uncertainties and the passage of the US tax - reform bill in the Senate, but the slowdown of the US dollar index decline requires vigilance against the suppression of the gold price by a staged rebound. The macro and commodity attributes support the silver price, but the fundamentals limit its upside. Copper prices are strong in the short term due to the recovery of market risk appetite and the fermentation of the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper. Aluminum prices are strong due to the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventories and the improvement of market risk appetite. The overall market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs and changes in domestic and foreign economic data [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term upward breakthrough is difficult, may oscillate, and follow - up focus on macro incremental information [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upward space is restricted by interest - rate risk warning [1] - **Gold**: Supported by tariff uncertainties and tax - reform bill, but beware of the impact of the US dollar index rebound [1] - **Silver**: Supported by macro and commodity attributes, but limited by fundamentals [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Strong in the short term due to risk - appetite recovery and squeeze - out situation [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong due to low inventory and improved market sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Maintains a strong operation [1] - **Zinc**: Affected by news in the short term, beware of risks in short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Rebounds in the short term but limited upside, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillating rebound, long - term supply pressure remains [1] - **Tin**: Rebounds due to improved macro sentiment, follow - up focus on imports [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bullish due to production cuts and high market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates due to stable supply and weak downstream procurement [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates with limited upside due to factory production restrictions and high short - term demand [1] - **Sinter**: Price is under pressure due to increased short - term production and weakening demand [1] - **Ferroalloy**: Excess pressure remains due to cost and demand factors [1] - **Glass**: Supply is stable in the short term, demand is resilient, but medium - term supply - demand surplus exists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is disturbed, but demand is weak, and cost support is weakened [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on futures premium for selling hedging [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short term, follow - up focus on hearings and supply - demand reports [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate weakly, affected by trade negotiations and weather in the short term, and macro uncertainties in the long term [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian production is expected to increase, and pay attention to the impact of crude oil on the sugar - production ratio [1] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate, with limited decline in the futures market, and C01 can be shorted at high prices [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term inventory is expected to accumulate, and MO1 can be bought at low prices [1] - **Pulp**: Bearish due to falling prices, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1] - **Logs**: Weak due to off - season and limited supply decline [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable due to the continued recovery of inventory and limited decline in spot prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillates due to geopolitical cooling, possible OPEC+ production increase, and consumption - season support [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish due to cost drag, possible tax - refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Bearish due to weakening demand, expected production increase, and inventory increase [1] - **BR Rubber**: Weak in the short term, follow - up focus on price adjustments and de - stocking progress [1] - **PTA**: Oscillates due to weakening basis, delayed plant maintenance, and strong PX floating [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish due to large expected arrivals and negative macro - sentiment impact [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates, with low warehouse - receipt registration and cost following closely [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish due to weakening speculative demand, increased device load, and strong basis [1] - **PE**: Oscillates strongly due to good macro - sentiment, many overhauls, and rigid demand [1] - **PP**: Oscillates strongly due to limited overhaul support, rigid orders, and market sentiment [1] - **PVC**: Oscillates strongly due to policy support, upcoming new - device production, and seasonal demand changes [1] - **Chlor - Alkali**: Oscillates, follow - up focus on liquid - chlorine changes [1] - **LPG**: Bearish due to price cuts, seasonal demand decline, and narrow price difference [1] - **Container Shipping European Line**: Expected to peak in mid - July, with sufficient subsequent capacity [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index may present a volatile pattern due to gradually shrinking trading volume and lack of significant domestic and foreign positive factors. It will depend on macro - incremental information for direction. In the medium - to - long - term, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. With potential deterioration in real estate sales and investment and weak overall consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the uncertain US tariff policy, approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical situation will bring trading opportunities for the stock index [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Interest Rates and Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase; GC001 at 1.35 with an 11.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.50 with an 8.00bp decrease; SHBOR 3M at 1.62 with a 0.85bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.50bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.49 with a 0.50bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.65 with a 0.10bp increase, 10 - year US treasury at 4.26 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2205 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1110 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 5093 billion and 5259 billion maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively. At the beginning of the month, the capital market is loose, with the overnight pledged - repo rate of deposit - taking institutions slightly down to 1.36%, and the 7 - day pledged - repo rate down 4bp to 1.51% [3] Stock Index and Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 3944 with a 0.02% increase, the SSE 50 at 2723 with a 0.18% increase, the CSI 500 at 5893 with a 0.7% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 6309.5 with a 1.01% decrease. The trading volume of the two stock exchanges was 13770 billion yuan, a reduction of 891 billion yuan from the previous day [3][4] - The steel, photovoltaic equipment, cement building materials, and coal industries led the gains, while the communication equipment, aerospace, semiconductor, and other sectors led the losses [4] - The trading volume of IC was 218885 with a 4.7% decrease, and the position was down 0.9%; the trading volume of IM was 165735 with an 8.9% decrease, and the position was down 2.7%; the trading volume of IF was 37246 with a 1.1% increase, and the position was up 0.3%; the trading volume of IH was 70804 with a 16.0% increase, and the position was down 0.8% [4][6] - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 13.12%, 8.52%, 5.80%, and 4.76% respectively; the IH premium/discount rates were 16.38%, 7.60%, 4.37%, and 2.17% respectively; the IC premium/discount rates were 14.07%, 12.21%, 10.69%, and 9.54% respectively; the IM premium/discount rates were 14.10%, 17.10%, 12.67% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the JOLTS data release, traders slightly reduced the expected rate cut by the Fed, with a 21% chance of a rate cut in July and an expected start of rate cuts in September [3] - The White House indicated that Trump might extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July [5] - Trump plans to visit China with dozens of CEOs [5] - Fed Chair Powell stated that a “substantial majority” of Fed members expect rate cuts later this year [5] - Trump's tariff policy and low river levels have caused the worst supply - chain congestion in European ports since the pandemic, expected to last at least several months [5] - US officials are seeking phased agreements with actively - involved trade negotiation countries, aiming for an agreement by July 9 [6] - The EC market shows weak oscillations [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **SCFI and CCFI**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1862, down 0.43% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1369, up 2.00% [3] - **Regional SCFI**: SCFI - US West is 2578, down 7.00%; SCFIS - US West is 161, down 22.28%; SCFI - US East is 4717, down 11.86%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2030, up 10.63%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2123, up 9.60%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2985, down 2.55% [3] 3.2 EC Futures - **Futures Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc., prices mostly declined, with EC2506 at 1310.0, down 0.92% [3] - **Open Interest**: EC2606 open interest increased by 82 to 352, while EC2508 decreased by 4141 to 36335 [3] - **Calendar Spreads**: The 10 - 12 spread is 515.6, down 5.5; the 12 - 2 spread is - 160.1, down 5.9; the 12 - 4 spread is 353.8, up 3.6 [3] 3.3 Spot Market - The central price in the second week of July is about 3200 (range 2900 - 3600). Maersk's price rose slightly from 2900 to 2960 in the second week, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam sailing price is 2950, higher than the expected decline [8] - There is a market differentiation, with some OCEAN Alliance routes having strong quotes and PA Alliance planning to raise prices later, but some shipping companies reported reduced inventory [8] - HPL's quotes show relatively sufficient cabin space, and shipping companies are still trying to attract cargo [8] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread long position and pay attention to the 8 - 10 calendar spread. Due to less shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30, Maersk's strong cabin opening in week 3 of July, and the expected European congestion, contract 08 may perform stronger than 10 [9]

免责声 | 聚酯数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/3 | | 陈胜 | | 能源化工研究中心 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | | 2025/7/1 | 2025/7/2 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | -1.20 | INE原油(元/桶) SC PTA-SC(元/吨) | 499. 4 1170.8 | 498. 2 1173.5 | 2.72 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,盘中原油价格窄幅震荡,PTA行情 小跌。现货基差均值较上一交易日下跌,早盘PTA现货 | | | | | | | 递盘基差较低,市场买气有所回升,午后现货基差较 | | 1. 3226 | PTA/SC(比价) | | 1. 3241 | 0. 0015 | 早盘微幅走强。 | | CFR中国PX | | 861 | 854 | -7 | | | PX-石脑油价差 | PX | 288 | 283 | -5 | | | PTA主力期价(元 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the center of gravity gradually rising. Uncertainty about tariff policies boosts safe - haven demand, and the tax and spending bill increases US debt, which is beneficial for gold in the long - term. However, the Fed Chair's stance on July rate cuts and the possible rebound of the US dollar index may suppress precious metals. Silver is expected to follow gold's rise but may face limitations due to the slowdown of related metals and its own demand [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases continue, strengthening gold's monetary attribute. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 2, 2025, London gold spot was $3331.81/ounce, London silver spot was $35.95/ounce. Compared with July 1, gold prices were mostly flat, while silver prices declined, with London silver spot down 0.8% [3]. - **Price Differences and Ratios**: The price difference between gold TD and SHFE active contract decreased by 25.7%, and the price difference between silver TD and SHFE active contract decreased by 50.0%. The ratio of SHFE gold and silver main contracts increased by 0.7%, and the ratio of COMEX gold and silver main contracts increased by 1.0% [3]. 3.2 Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: As of July 1, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 948.23 tons, down 0.45% from June 30. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 2.81%, and COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 6.29% [3]. - **Inventory Data**: On July 2, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 18456.00 kg, up 0.02% from July 1, and SHFE silver inventory was 1338659.00 kg, down 0.01%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.30% [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - **US Economic Data**: As of July 2, 2025, the US dollar index was 96.65, up 0.02% from July 1. The 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.61%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.60% [4]. - **Other Market Data**: The S&P 500 index increased by 0.47%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.11% [4]. 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Fed's Stance**: Fed Chair Powell said most Fed members expect rate cuts later this year, and it's uncertain whether a July rate cut is too early. He also mentioned that the Trump tariff policy has affected the Fed's decision - making [4]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, better than expected. The May JOLTs job openings were 776.9 million, higher than expected [4]. - **Policy News**: On July 1, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, which was submitted to the House of Representatives for a vote on July 2 [4]. - **Geopolitical News**: Iran's President approved the suspension of cooperation with the IAEA, and Trump said he would not extend the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations [4].