Group 1: Report Summary of Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the off - season, market participants worry that the demand for the black sector will decline, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector [6]. - Short - term production restrictions have a more obvious impact on steel. If short - term production restrictions cannot be sustained, the positive impact on profits and steel prices will not last long [6]. - The basis of black sector varieties that were previously at a large futures discount has been rapidly repaired recently, with coking coal and coke showing futures premiums and iron ore futures approaching parity [6]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term disturbances in coal mine production in July have subsided. If the overall situation of coal mine resumption changes little, the phased high of the coking coal and coke futures may have been reached [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly fluctuate following coal prices. Ferrosilicon's supply has a slight increase, and demand is okay in the short - term. Silicomanganese's supply continues to rise, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [6]. - For iron ore, short - term attention should be paid to the actual impact of production restrictions on molten iron and whether the production restriction wave will spread to other regions. Currently, iron ore is in a shock range [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On July 1st, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3016 yuan/ton with a decline of 7 yuan (- 0.23%), HC2601 at 3136 yuan/ton with a decline of 4 yuan (- 0.13%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3003 yuan/ton with a decline of 6 yuan (- 0.20%), HC2510 at 3136 yuan/ton with an increase of 2 yuan (0.06%) [2]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits also showed different changes on July 1st. For example, the cross - month spread of RB2510 - 2601 was - 13 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan [2]. Spot Market - On July 1st, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3100 yuan/ton with a decline of 40 yuan, Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 yuan, etc. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions also had different changes [2]. Industry Analysis - **Steel**: Short - term production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi led to a rebound in the virtual profit of the futures market on Tuesday. If the production restrictions cannot be sustained, the positive impact on profits and steel prices will be short - lived. The basis of steel varieties has been rapidly repaired recently [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading of coking coal is still good, with most prices rising. The supply of coal mines in July is expected to increase. The futures prices of coking coal and coke fell in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. The market expects stricter environmental production restrictions in the future. If the coal mine resumption situation changes little, the phased high of the coking coal and coke futures may have been reached [6]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Ferrosilicon's price is greatly affected by coal. Its supply has a slight increase, and demand is okay in the short - term. Silicomanganese's supply continues to rise, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose. Their prices mainly fluctuate following coal and steel [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The news of production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi led to an expansion of steel mill profits in the futures market. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual impact of production restrictions on molten iron and whether the production restriction wave will spread to other regions. Currently, iron ore is in a shock range [6]. Investment Suggestions - **Steel**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Consider entering the market for cash - and - carry arbitrage as the basis approaches the appropriate point. Take profit on short - term long positions in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread at an appropriate time [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For single - side trading, set the previous high as the stop - loss point and establish short positions on rebounds. Industrial customers can take advantage of the premium to conduct selling hedging [6]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Buy call options at low prices due to their high price elasticity [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Short at the upper edge of the shock range [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Crude oil dropped significantly, causing the chemical industry to follow. Despite the expectation of reduced polyester downstream load, it remained at 91.3%, and the actual polyester output reached a new high. Recent promotions helped with inventory reduction. PTA will reduce inventory in the coming period, and the action of major factories to increase basis sales has had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. Polyester has recently reduced inventory rapidly, and inventory has increased significantly. Affected by the rise in crude oil, market purchasing willingness has increased. The maintenance of a northeast PX factory and a Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Indicators Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5030 to 4980, a change of -50 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4334 to 4328, a change of -6 [2] Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price increased from 4798 to 4800, a change of 2 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4267 to 4273, a change of 6 [2] Short - fiber - related Indicators - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6805 to 6820, a change of 15 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 79 to 156, a change of 77 [2] - 7 - 9 spread increased from 216 to 218, a change of 2 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price decreased from 5850 to 5820, a change of -30 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 955 to 1000, a change of 45 [2] Bottle - chip - related Indicators - East China water bottle chip price increased from 6016 to 6040, a change of 24 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6016 to 6040, a change of 24 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6116 to 6140, a change of 24 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 795 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 263 to 332, a change of 68.76 [2] Other Product Indicators - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10620 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3815 to 3800, a change of -15 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14935 to 14945, a change of 10 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1143 to 1129, a change of -13.72 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7330 to 7300, a change of -30 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 377 to 392, a change of 14.76 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7575 to 7565, a change of -10 [2] Load and Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, a change of 0.02 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 40.00% to 47.00%, a change of 7.00% [3] - Polyester yarn starting rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/2 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/6/30 | 2025/7/1 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 496. 7 | 499. 4 | 2. 70 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,月初下游聚酯工厂消耗长约PTA为 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1188. 4 | 1170. 8 | -17. 62 | 主,对PTA现货采购意向偏低,PTA现货基差走弱。部 | | | | | | | 分聚酯瓶片工厂执行减产,关注后续聚酯减产情况, | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3292 | 1. 3226 | -0. 0066 | 利空PTA市场。 | | | CFR中国PX | 874 | 861 | -13 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current EC08 contract on the trading board is at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of Scenario 2. This year, the European route trading is prone to a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses". It is recommended to value the "error - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spread strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. [9] - The trading on the board returns to fundamental drivers, with trading centered around the expectation of the peak season transitioning to the off - season. As the end of the tariff suspension period approaches, some airlines expect to raise prices in late July. [9][10] - Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread strategy. [11] 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1862, down 0.43% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1369, up 2.00%. SCFI - US West is at 2578, down 7.00%; SCFIS - US West is at 1619, down 22.28%; SCFI - US East is at 4717, down 11.86%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 2030, up 10.63%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 2123, up 9.60%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2985, down 2.55%. [4] - **Contracts**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their percentage changes are provided. For example, EC2508 is currently at 1904.9, up 8.15% from the previous value. [4] - **Open Interest**: The current open interest and its changes for contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc. are given. For instance, the current open interest of EC2508 is 40476, an increase of 1248 from the previous value. [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) and their changes are presented. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 521.1, up 98.7 from the previous value. [4] Market News - After the JOLTS data was released, traders slightly reduced the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, expecting the cuts to start in September, with a 21% probability of a cut in July. [5] - The White House stated that Trump may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July. Trump plans to visit China with dozens of CEOs. Fed Chairman Powell said that a "substantial majority" of Fed members expect to cut interest rates later this year. [6] - According to the Financial Times, Trump's tariff policy and falling river levels have led to the worst supply - chain congestion in European ports since the pandemic, especially in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg, and the congestion is expected to last for at least several months. [7] - Iran's ambassador to the UN stated that Tehran "will never stop" uranium - enrichment activities, emphasizing it as an inalienable right and national sovereignty under the NPT. [7] Market Conditions and Strategies for EC Contracts - **Market Conditions**: The spot freight rates have been rising this week. The quotes for European basic ports in late June are 2,800 - 3,200 US dollars per 40 - foot container, and the upward trend is expected to continue until mid - July. For the 7 - 8 month European route freight rates, there are three scenarios: a collapse - style decline if a large amount of US - bound capacity shifts to the European route; an "arc - top" trend if shipping companies control capacity; and global capacity misallocation due to unexpected factors. [8] - **Trading Strategies**: Given that the EC08 contract on the board is at a discount to the spot price, attention should be paid to the potential logic of Scenario 2. It is recommended to formulate far - month positive spread strategies based on historical delivery data and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread. [9][11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, stock indices are likely to oscillate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for direction guidance. In the long - term, the July Politburo meeting will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, stable domestic demand requires more policy support. Overseas, with the Fed's possible interest - rate cuts and geopolitical changes, there will be trading opportunities for stock indices [6]. 3. Content Summaries Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 1.46 with a 68.00bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.58 with an 11.00bp decrease. SHBOR 3M was at 1.63 with a 0.20bp decrease, LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.34, 1.49, and 1.65 respectively, with changes of - 0.50bp, 0.50bp, and 0.10bp. The 10 - year US treasury bond was at 4.24 with a 5.00bp decrease [3]. - The central bank conducted 1310 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases are due, and the central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, resulting in a net injection of 1180 billion yuan after the 1820 - billion - yuan maturity, and a net injection of 3180 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity considering repurchase operations. In the future, the central bank may continue to supplement liquidity through MLF over - renewal or combined with reverse repurchases [3][4]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 rose 0.17% to 3942.8, the SSE 50 rose 0.21% to 2717.7, the CSI 500 rose 0.33% to 5934.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.28% to 6373.8. The trading volume of the two stock markets was 14660 billion yuan, a decrease of 208 billion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, with glass fiber, chemical pharmaceuticals, and others leading the gains, while diversified finance, software development, etc. led the losses [6]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF当月 closed at 3912 with a 0.1% increase, IH当月 at 2696 with a 0.1% increase, IC当月 at 2868 with a 0.1% increase, and IM当月 at 6287 with a 0.1% increase. The trading volumes of IF, IH, IC decreased by 11.4%, 21.1%, 3.7% respectively, while IM increased by 5.7%. The open interests of IF, IH, IC decreased by 2.4%, 3.1%, 0.2% respectively, while IM increased by 3.3% [5]. - The premium/discount rates of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF升贴水 for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 16.97%, 9.83%, 6.57%, 5.01% respectively; IH升贴水 are 17.15%, 7.97%, 4.69%, 2.21% respectively; IC升贴水 are 24.12%, 16.00%, 13.07%, 10.61% respectively; IM升贴水 are 29.30%, 20.79%, 17.21%, 14.14% respectively [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum Oxide [1] - Bearish: Zinc (for short - term short - selling opportunity), Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil (if no significant reduction in US soybean acreage), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC, LPG [1] - Neutral: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Zinc (in general), Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polycrystalline Silicon, Rebar, Iron Ore, Silicon Iron, Glass, Coking Coal, Coke, Canola Oil, Cotton, Corn, Bean Meal (MO9), Logs, Pig Futures, PTA, Styrene, Other Chemicals [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and it's necessary to pay attention to macro - incremental information for index direction guidance. The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The overall macro sentiment has improved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen. Attention should be paid to tariff - related progress and domestic and foreign economic data changes [1]. - For different commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, macro policies, and international relations. For example, the supply recovery expectation of some metals is strong, while the demand shows signs of weakening, but the macro - sentiment improvement leads to price rebounds [1]. Group 3: Summaries by Industry Macro - Financial - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate. Gold may be under short - term pressure due to improved market risk preference, but high tariff uncertainty prevents continuous decline. Silver is mainly in short - term oscillation [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, and aluminum oxide are expected to be bullish in the short - term due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, improved market risk preference, and low inventory levels [1]. - Zinc price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, but there is an opportunity to short at the high - rebound level due to strong supply - recovery expectation and weakening demand [1]. - Nickel price rebounds from the short - term bottom but has limited upward space. There is still pressure from primary nickel oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term interval operation and short - selling hedging on rebounds are recommended [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate and rebound in the short - term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. There is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Tin price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to the import situation of Wa State tin ore [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is loose, and there is no upward price - driving force. For iron ore, there is an expectation of iron - water peak, and the supply may increase in June [1]. - Silicon iron price is expected to oscillate with weak supply - demand and approaching the off - season [1]. - Glass price is expected to oscillate weakly as the supply - surplus concern resurfaces, and the terminal demand is weak [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are bearish. In the context of over - capacity, the opportunity of futures premium for short - selling hedging should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil price is expected to decline as the supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating after the stagnation or decline of crude oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil price is expected to be bearish if the USDA report does not significantly reduce the US soybean acreage [1]. - Canola oil price is expected to oscillate before the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is announced [1]. - Cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. There are short - term disturbances in the US cotton market, and the domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season [1]. - Sugar production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - Corn price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended after the production situation is clearer [1]. - Bean meal (MO9) is expected to oscillate. There is an expectation of import - cost increase in the fourth quarter, and long - position opportunities at low prices for the November and January contracts are recommended [1]. - Pulp price is bearish due to the decline in foreign - market quotes, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1]. - Log price is expected to be weak as it is in the off - season and the supply decline is limited despite the foreign - market price increase [1]. - Pig futures are expected to be stable. Although the live - pig inventory is being repaired and the slaughter weight is increasing, the short - term spot is less affected by slaughter, and the decline is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are bearish as the Middle - East geopolitical situation cools down, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1]. - Asphalt price is affected by cost drag, possible increase in Shandong's consumption - tax refund, and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber price is affected by weakening downstream demand, strong supply - release expectation, and slightly increased inventory [1]. - BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The BR premium has been withdrawn, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and the factory - ex price of butadiene rubber has been lowered [1]. - PTA price is expected to oscillate. The basis continues to weaken, the Northeast PX device maintenance is postponed, and the overseas PX device maintenance leads to a relatively strong PX performance [1]. - Styrene price: The device load has recovered, the inventory is concentrated, and the basis has strengthened significantly [1]. - Other chemicals such as PVC, caustic soda, and LPG are expected to be bearish. PVC is affected by the end of maintenance, new - device production, and the seasonal off - season. LPG has downward space due to factors such as geopolitical - situation mitigation, seasonal off - season, and increased inflow of low - price foreign goods [1]. Other - It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak - reaching time advanced. The shipping capacity deployment will be sufficient in the following weeks [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventories of domestic soybean meal, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybean meal may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - crushing of oil mills, and it is expected that the 009 contract will show a sideways movement. In the fourth quarter, there is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) in Dalian was - 11 with a change of 15; in Tianjin, it was - 41 with a change of 25; in Rizhao, it was - 81 with a change of 25. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was - 121 with a change of 5; in Dongguan, it was - 111 with a change of 35; in Zhanjiang, it was - 111 with a change of - 15; in Fangcheng, it was - 111 with a change of 5. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 2 with a change of 27 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 389 with a change of 2; the spread of the main contract was 280 with a change of 10 [7] 3.3 International Data - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1656, and the on - disk crushing profit was 232 yuan/ton with a change of 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history; soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises continued to rise [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is expected to be over 10 million tons each month. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Demand: From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the inventory of poultry remains at a high level; the cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level; in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7] 3.6开机 and Pressing Situation - The开机 rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are shown in historical data analysis charts [7]

Group 1: Core View - Crude oil has fallen sharply, causing the chemical industry to follow. Despite the expected reduction in polyester downstream load, it remains at 91.3%, and the actual polyester output has reached a new high. Recent promotions have helped with inventory reduction. PTA will reduce inventory in the coming period, and the actions of major factories to increase basis sales have had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. Polyester has rapidly reduced inventory recently, and inventory has increased significantly. Affected by the rise in crude oil, market purchasing willingness has increased. The maintenance of a Northeast PX factory and a Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed [2]. Group 2: Market Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - PTA spot price increased from 5025 to 5030, a change of 5.00; PTA closing price rose from 4778 to 4798, a change of 20.00 [2]. - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4346 to 4334, a change of (12.00); MEG closing price dropped from 4271 to 4267, a change of (4.00) [2]. Short - Fiber Related Data - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained at 6805, with a change of 0.00; short - fiber basis decreased from 84 to 79, a change of (5.00); 7 - 9 spread increased from 172 to 216, a change of 44.00 [2]. - Polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6.00; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5850, with a change of 0.00; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber remained at 955, with a change of 0.00 [2]. Bottle - Chip Related Data - Polyester bottle - chip in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was mainly negotiated at 6020 - 6120 per ton, with the average price dropping 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The prices of East China water bottle - chip, hot - filled polyester bottle - chip, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle - chip all decreased by 27.00 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle - chip price decreased from 800 to 795, a change of (5.00); bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 291 to 263, a change of (27.25) [2]. Yarn and Other Product Data - T32S pure - polyester yarn price decreased from 10630 to 10620, a change of (10.00); T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3825 to 3815, a change of (10.00) [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16300, with a change of 0.00; cotton 328 price remained at 14935, with a change of 0.00; polyester - cotton yarn profit remained at 1143, with a change of 0.00 [2]. - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) decreased from 7360 to 7330, a change of (30.00); the cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 408 to 377, a change of (30.25) [2]. - The price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber decreased from 7600 to 7575, a change of (25.00) [2]. Operating Rate and Sales Data - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, a change of 0.02; polyester staple fiber sales decreased from 40.00% to 43.00%, a change of - 3.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 67.00%, with a change of 0.00; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained at 50.40%, with a change of 0.00 [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the off - season of demand and high inventory situation, pulp is regarded as bearish [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 30, 2025, SP2601 was 5254, down 0.79% day - on - day and 4.02% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5060, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; SP2509 was 5064, down 0.63% day - on - day and 4.05% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On June 30, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, down 0.84% day - on - day and 2.48% week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5120, unchanged day - on - day and down 3.40% week - on - week; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4020, down 0.74% day - on - day and 1.95% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In June 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353, down 30.80% month - on - month. In June 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of pulp ports was 216.3 tons, and the inventory of delivery warehouses was 24.60 tons. The inventory of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated [1] - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 30, 2025, the basis of Russian coniferous pulp was 56, with a quantile level of 0.812; the basis of Silver Star was 836, with a quantile level of 0.962 [1] - **Import Profit**: On June 30, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, with a quantile level of 0.65; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, with a quantile level of 0.186 [1] Summary - **Supply**: On June 20, 2025, Arauco lowered the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) in June by 20 dollars/ton to 720 dollars/ton, and the shipment volume to China increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The supply increased while the price decreased [1] - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period, a 2.0% decrease, showing a de - stocking trend [1] - **Strategy**: In the off - season of demand and high inventory situation, pulp is regarded as bearish [1]

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 碳酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 2025/07/01 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 数据来源:SMM,公开新闻整理 100000 锂化合物 平均价 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 61300 150 80000 4000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 59700 150 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 碳酸锂2507 62420 -0. 32% 碳酸锂2508 62440 -0. 6% 40000 碳酸锂2509 -0. 77% 62260 碳酸锂2510 - 1000 62100 -0. 86% 20000 碳酸锂2511 62080 -0. 61% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 630 46 est (1 i 20 · 5 5%-6%) | | 锂云母 | 720 | | 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | - 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 - 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 TT/ J T./ HH | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...