Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, although external disturbance factors have intensified, the stock index itself maintains strong resilience driven by domestic capital. The space for short - term stock index shock adjustment is expected to be limited. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions during this period [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - The closing price of DRO01 is 1.33, with a change of - 3.36bp compared to the previous value; DR007 is 1.59, with a change of 0.19bp; GC001 is 1.61, with a change of 0.50bp; SHBOR 3M is 1.59, with a change of - 0.20bp; GC007 is 1.61, with a change of - 1.50bp; LPR 5 - year is 3.50, with a change of 0.00bp; 1 - year treasury bond is 1.30, with a change of 0.02bp; 5 - year treasury bond is 1.58, with a change of - 0.23bp; 10 - year treasury bond is 1.81, with a change of - 0.97bp; 10 - year US treasury bond is 4.26, with a change of 2.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1761.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market. With 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, the net injection was 580.5 billion yuan. In addition, 200 billion yuan of MLF matured last week, and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations were carried out [4] - This week, 1761.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 150.5 billion, 402 billion, 377.5 billion, 354 billion, and 477.5 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Also, 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will mature on Wednesday [5] Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The closing price of CSI 300 is 4706, down 1.00% compared to the previous day; IF current - month contract is 4710, down 1.4%; SSE 50 is 3066, down 1.43%; IH current - month contract is 3068, down 1.8%; CSI 500 is 8371, down 1.73%; IC current - month contract is 8377, down 1.8%; CSI 1000 is 8255, down 0.93%; IM current - month contract is 8282, down 0.8% [6] - The trading volume of IF is 179201, up 12.1%; the open interest is 332644, up 2.8%; the trading volume of IH is 77049, down 10.3%; the open interest is 122366, down 4.6%; the trading volume of IC is 248185, up 21.5%; the open interest is 349459, down 1.2%; the trading volume of IM is 275842, up 11.2%; the open interest is 408840, down 0.7% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 0.08% to 4706.3; SSE 50 rose 1.13% to 3066.5; CSI 500 fell 2.56% to 8370.5; CSI 1000 fell 2.55% to 8254.9. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (5.8%), non - ferrous metals (3.4%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (1.8%), food and beverage (1.6%), and non - bank finance (1%) led the gains, while national defense and military industry (- 7.7%), power equipment (- 5.1%), automobile (- 5.1%), computer (- 4.8%), and comprehensive (- 4.7%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 3280.6 billion, 2921.5 billion, 2992.3 billion, 3259.4 billion, and 2862.4 billion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume increased by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - Last week, the selling pace of broad - based ETFs slowed down. For example, the scale of CSI 300ETF decreased by 95.8 billion yuan on January 27, and the reduction amplitudes on January 28 and 29 narrowed to 26.9 billion and 13.6 billion yuan respectively. On Friday, overseas disturbances intensified. The newly nominated Fed Chairman Waller is hawkish, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, the precious metals sector tumbled, and the US Nasdaq index fell sharply during the session, dragging down the A - share opening. However, due to the abundant liquidity of the A - share market itself and good bullish sentiment, the A - share market rebounded in a "V" shape [7] Futures Contract Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF are - 1.49% for the current - month contract, - 0.77% for the next - month contract, 0.37% for the current - quarter contract, and 1.74% for the next - quarter contract; for IH, they are - 1.07%, - 1.90%, - 1.16%, and 0.69% respectively; for IC, they are - 1.53%, 0.75%, 2.23%, and 3.06% respectively; for IM, they are - 6.41%, - 0.54%, 3.56%, and 4.99% respectively [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market strength leads the rise of chemical products, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, and polyester leads the entire chemical sector [3]. - Domestic PTA production continues to grow. With no new PTA capacity in the country, existing plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester. India's PTA operates at full capacity, and the new project GMPL has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand [3]. - Overseas ethylene glycol prices rebound after a long - term slump. Reduced ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East boost market confidence. Supply contraction creates room for ethylene glycol price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 472.5 yuan/barrel on January 29, 2026, to 470.8 yuan/barrel on January 30, 2026, a decrease of 1.7 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 decreased from 5332 yuan/ton to 5270 yuan/ton, a drop of 62 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 rose from 5245 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased by 63.5 yuan/ton to 477.3 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee decreased by 13.5 yuan/ton to 467.3 yuan/ton [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3957 yuan/ton to 3913 yuan/ton, a drop of 44 yuan/ton. MEG内盘 rose from 3829 yuan/ton to 3835 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX decreased from 921 to 913, a decrease of 8; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 337 to 317, a decrease of 20 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price rose by 90 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F and DTY150D/48F prices both rose by 100 yuan/ton. 1.4D直纺涤短 price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and semi - light slice price decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 remained unchanged at 85.82%; PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 75.63%; MEG开工率 decreased from 60.66% to 60.29%, a decrease of 0.37%; polyester load decreased from 81.05% to 80.82%, a decrease of 0.23% [3]. 3.3 Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th. A South China 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in early March [4]. 3.4 Market Transaction Suggestions - PTA: The strong PX market drives the rise of chemical products, and capital flows into the chemical sector. Domestic PTA production grows, and existing plants need to maintain high loads. The new Indian project boosts demand, while PX supply is affected by plant maintenance [3]. - MEG: Overseas ethylene glycol prices rebound. Reduced Middle East exports and a domestic plant's production switch plan increase speculative demand and create price - rising space [3].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,拥 此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/2/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/1/29 | 2026/1/30 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5245 | 5280 | 35 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 3829 | ...

2200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 展望后市，本次贵金属市场的崩盘给原本的上涨趋势踩下刹车、短期市场或继续释放风险。但在经历了近期的太幅调整后、市场风险也得到一定释放、随着杠 杆的去化，叠加伊朗地缘仍旧复杂和美国政府正式部分停摆等，预计金银价格后续进一步大幅下挫空间或相对有限。白银方面，现货仍旧偏紧、库存持续回落，且 隐波高达100以上，短期玻动料仍较为તી?。中长朝来看，本次贵金属价格的崩盘并不意味着贵金属牛市格局的结束，在美联储年内仍有降息概率，全球地缘不确定 性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续，贵金属价格重心仍有上行空间、可关注本次暴跌后带来的逢 低配置机会。 体我告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，但更期货力求准确可靠。但不对上越信息的准确性及完熟性依任何保证、本报告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别投资者保持知投资目标、财务优况或需要、投资 者需三行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其标定状况，融此投资。责任会负。本报告仅向标定客户推送，来组国资降货资政许可，任何引用、转载以及可第三方传播的行为少购成或回贸贸股权规 声明 我司 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 注:因收盘时间不一致,铂、兜库存及持仓数据部分滞后。 1月30日，铭、纽价格整体大幅下挫：PT2606合约收跌11.79%至630.55元/克:PD2606合约收跌11.87%至46405元/克。此外，上周五 夜盘,外盘铂把价格继续大幅下跌,伦敦现货锐金盘中暴跌超24%,终根收2180.8美元/盎司,目内跌16.72%;伦敦现货投盘盘中暴跌超 20%，终损收771.美元/盎司。日内映14.69%。宏观层面，特朗普提名近什出任新美联随主席，国其相较于其它候选人更加鹰派,市场普 遍预期其不会采取大规模范松货币政策，同时派什的提名也缓解了市场对美联情独立世丧失的担忧，提振美元指数、美债收益率大幅 走强,加上资金的大规模流出,贵金属市场出现恐慌性抛售并发生了"踩踏式"下跌，钳、史亦不例外跟随暴跌。基本面方面,暂未 有较大变化,美国决定督援对关键矿产加征进口关税,缓解的、把的关税风险,未来需关注组织库存是否流出,若确认,可能会对其 上行空间炮成压制。综上。基于 ...

rr C 国贸 n1X _120 TG 国 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [ TC 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年到 在 | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:20017251 | 2026/02/02 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 = | | | | | | | 现货综述 | 指标 | 变动值 | 2026/01/29 | 2026/01/30 | | | | 65. 42 | WTT | 63.21 | 2.21 | 原油& | | | | 68. 4 | 70.71 | 2.31 | Brent | 石 脑 油 | 苯乙烯:江苏市场低开反弹,整理抬升。消息着, | 本 | | 11.5 | 石脑油 | 584. 5 | 596 | 乙烯主力合约回软,原油、纯苯、主力合约反弹,苯 | 乙烯盘面成交向好,货市场有点价商谈8000/8050 | | | 石烯 CFR东北亚 | 700 | 700 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways, and hot-rolled coil basis trading and futures-cash arbitrage can be considered. [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to rebound due to improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals remain under pressure in the medium term. [3] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by the off-season and limited upward and downward drivers. After the first round of coke price increase, pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] - Iron ore prices are supported in the short term by the "restart + restocking" expectation but face long-term pressure from port inventories. [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3203.00, 3330.00, 779.00, 1791.50, and 1242.50 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. [1] - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3157.00, 3308.00, 798.50, 1723.00, and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, also with varying increases. [1] - The cross-month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were -46.00, -22.00, 19.50, -68.50, and -77.50 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - The spreads/ratios/profits such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, rebar disk profit, and coking disk profit had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] Spot Market - On January 29, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3280.00, 3190.00, 3410.00, 2950.00, and 104.15 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes. [1] - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] - The spot prices of Qingdao Port super - special powder, etc. also had corresponding values and changes on January 29. [1] - The basis values of HC, RB, etc. and their changes on January 29 were provided. [1] Steel - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow. Traders are less willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for futures - cash positions, and hot - rolled coil futures - cash arbitrage can be rolled. [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating upwards. The demand is weak in the short term, and the supply is high in the medium term. The domestic macro - policy is favorable. In general, the short - term market sentiment dominates, and the prices may be strongly oscillating. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsuccessful bids. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rebound. The steel market is in a slow season, and the industry data is weak. The coal mine supply continues to recover, and the downstream has pre - Spring Festival restocking. The short - term first - round price increase and news drive the disk rebound, but pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is low. The expectation of steel mill restart and pre - Spring Festival restocking supports the iron ore price in the short term. After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. The short - term pattern is oscillating strongly, but the medium - long - term pressure is obvious. [6]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2026/1/30 金融行生品中心 李泽矩 从业资格号: F0251925 数据来源: Wind, 国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 成交量(亿) 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅 (8) 成交额(亿元) 上证50 2948. 88 100. 71 3110. 9135 1.65 沪深300 4753. 8697 0. 76 9179. 66 415. 51 8332. 2067 6777. 36 -0. 80 中证1000 401. 99 中金所股指期权成交情况 认购期权 期权成交量 认购期权 认活期权 认活期权 持仓量 日成交量 期权持仓量 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 (万张) PCR PCR 上证50 6. 93 0. 37 5.06 1.87 7. 97 3. 10 4. 87 0. 64 沪深300 8. 23 13. 48 9.11 4. 38 20. 85 12. 63 0. 65 0. 48 中证1000 33. 22 18. 22 32. 21 15. 00 0. 82 16. 1 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The absolute price of soybean meal is relatively low. Recently, affected by weather speculation in Argentina and logistics congestion in Brazil, the futures market has been strong. However, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area in February, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion will shift the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums later. There is no condition for a significant unilateral upward trend. Currently, the domestic purchase and shipping profit is at a high level. From the perspective of profit, the valuation of the soybean meal futures is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up unilaterally. The domestic supply and demand is expected to be loose in the first quarter, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [13] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - On January 29th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 438, in Tianjin was 378 (down 20), in Rizhao was 318 (down 20), in Zhangjiagang was 328 (down 10), in Dongguan was 318 (down 20), in Zhanjiang was 348 (down 20), and in Fangcheng was 338 (down 20). The basis of rapeseed meal in Yue was 147 (down 24). M3 - 5 was 294 (down 4), and RM5 - 9 was - 8 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 477 (down 8), and the futures spread of the main contract was not clearly stated in the text [5] Inventory Data - The text shows the inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, but specific data on January 29th is not clearly summarized [5][7][8] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9146, and the futures crushing profit was 153 yuan/ton. The text also shows the CNF premium trend chart of soybeans in 2025 and the futures crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in 2025 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE