Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: DREIE (equity index), Copper, Zinc, Tin (medium to long - term), Short - fiber [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury bonds, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Mono - crystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Bilateral steel, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Silicon carbide, Rare earth metals, Soda ash, Coke, Coking coal, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Livestock, Crude oil, Natural gas, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, TEPG, PG [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Fuel oil, Asphalt, Benzene ethylene [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's oscillating adjustment, and the index may rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The support from Central Huijin provides a buffer, and the risk of index decline is controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut improves the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on the prices of various metals and energy - chemical products. The fundamentals of different industries also play a crucial role in price trends [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **DREIE**: The market divergence will be digested during the index's adjustment, and the index may rise further. The support from Central Huijin reduces the downside risk. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and industrial support lead to a strong price [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is positive, and the price has rebounded due to limited industrial drivers [1]. - **Alumina**: The production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price oscillates around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The reduction in processing fees leads to a production cut in December, supporting the price, which is oscillating strongly in the short - term but with upward pressure [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation warms the sentiment. The impact of Indonesia's restrictions on smelting projects is limited. The price has rebounded after a decline and may oscillate with the macro - environment. The long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The raw material price has stopped falling, and the futures price oscillates. Short - term trading is recommended, and a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy can be considered [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa support the price. The demand pressure remains, and chasing high prices requires caution. The medium - to long - term outlook is positive [1]. Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: After a sharp rise and fall, the short - term upward trend may slow down, and the price will oscillate. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in December provides support [1]. - **Platinum**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. - **Palladium**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the [long - platinum short - lithium] arbitrage strategy can be continued in the medium - term [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in the northwest is recovering, and the production in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The production schedule in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in organic silicon [1]. - **Mono - crystalline silicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally, and large manufacturers are reluctant to deliver goods [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Ferrous metals - **Rebar and Bilateral steel**: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis - positive arbitrage positions. Do not chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Iron ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts have upward potential [1]. - **Manganese silicon and Silicon carbide**: The direct demand is fair, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, and the inventory is accumulating, limiting the price rebound [1]. - **Rare earth metals**: The supply and demand are supportive, and the valuation is low, but the price fluctuates strongly due to short - term sentiment [1]. - **Soda ash**: It follows the trend of glass, but the supply and demand are average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. - **Coke and Coking coal**: The valuation suggests that the price decline is approaching the end. The downstream may start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. Short - term trading is recommended for now [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is high. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. The downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is currently in a state of "supported but lacking drivers" [1]. - **Corn**: The short - term downstream inventory is low, and the market acquisition enthusiasm is high. The spot price is firm, and the futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Weather changes in South America should be monitored [1]. - **Pulverized coal**: The futures price has risen sharply due to low - warehouse - receipt trading, and the short - term fluctuation is expected to be large [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weak but have been priced in the market. Chasing short positions after a large price decline has a low risk - return ratio [1]. - **Livestock**: The spot price has gradually stabilized. The demand provides support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Fuel oil and Asphalt**: They have a negative outlook due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the possible falsification of demand, and high profits [1]. - **BR rubber**: There is strong raw material cost support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the inventory may accumulate. The high - inventory situation restricts the price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - **PTA**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and factors such as India's cancellation of import certification restrictions improve the export prospects and boost the purchasing sentiment [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: It follows the price decline due to inventory accumulation. The cost support from coal is weakening, and the expected new device production suppresses the price increase [1]. - **Styrene**: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced gasoline demand in the US [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: The supply pressure is high due to factors such as high operating loads and new capacity releases, while the downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Caustic soda**: There are factors such as delivery delays of alumina, high operating loads, inventory pressure in Shandong, and the risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **TEPG and PG**: The geopolitical and tariff situations are easing, and the market is expected to return to a loose fundamental logic. The price of PG oscillates in a range after a decline [1]. Others - **Container shipping on European routes**: The price increase in December fell short of expectations, the peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [1].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/12/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.30 | -0.87 | DR007 | 1.44 | -1.71 | | स्ट | GC001 | 1.41 | -5.50 | GC007 | 1.49 | -0.50 | | F | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.36 | 1.40 | 5年期国债 | 1.56 | 0.20 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.83 | 0.30 | 10年期美债 | 4.10 | 0.00 | | 与 | | | 热评:央行昨日开展了1563亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1. ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不少年 市 市 官 方 网 服 线 站 需 有 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 ITGE贸期货 2025/12/3 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | 周环比 | 2025年12月2日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月2日 | 日环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5328 | 2.66% | 2. 23% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5450 | 0. 93% | 0. 93% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4714 | 0. 81% | 0. 04% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | SP2605 | 5366 | 2. 09% | 1.78% | | 阔叶浆 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - **Steel**: Adopt a unilateral range trading strategy; consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [3] - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulating options to protect spot exposures [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Speculators should mainly go long on far-month contracts at low prices [3] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of steel prices is weak, and the black sector is in a range-bound pattern. There is support at low prices due to potential restocking, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production cut logic and observe the start of winter storage restocking [3] - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand, despite strong cost support [3] - The decline in coking coal spot auction prices has narrowed, and some coal varieties have rebounded slightly. The futures are still weak. It is expected that the previous low will form strong support, and far - month contracts can be bought at low prices [3] - Iron ore is at the upper limit of the range. Due to increasing inventory pressure, it is advisable to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **December 2nd Closing Prices and Changes**: The far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, JM2605 closed at 3169.00 yuan/ton, 3322.00 yuan/ton, 775.50 yuan/ton, 1764.50 yuan/ton, and 1179.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 25.00 yuan, 15.00 yuan, 3.50 yuan, 21.50 yuan, and 15.50 yuan, and the corresponding percentage changes were 0.80%, 0.45%, 0.45%, 1.23%, and 1.33%. The near - month (main) contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601 closed at 3133.00 yuan/ton, 3325.00 yuan/ton, 800.50 yuan/ton, 1629.50 yuan/ton, and 1096.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 11.00 yuan, 10.00 yuan, 4.00 yuan, 39.00 yuan, and 20.00 yuan, and the corresponding percentage changes were 0.35%, 0.30%, 0.50%, 2.45%, and 1.86% [1] - **Cross - month Spreads and Changes**: On December 2nd, the cross - month spreads RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, JM2601 - 2605 were - 36.00 yuan/ton, 3.00 yuan/ton, 25.00 yuan/ton, - 135.00 yuan/ton, and - 83.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3.00 yuan, - 4.00 yuan, 1.50 yuan, 15.50 yuan, and 7.00 yuan [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits and Changes**: On December 2nd, the coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, coal - to - coke ratio, rebar paper profit, and coking paper profit were 192.00 yuan, 3.91, 1.49, - 60.33 yuan, and 171.16 yuan respectively, with changes of - 1.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, - 5.18 yuan, and 5.35 yuan [1] Spot Market - **December 2nd Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3320.00 yuan/ton, 3240.00 yuan/ton, 3560.00 yuan/ton, 2990.00 yuan/ton, and 107.80 respectively, with changes of 10.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.45 [1] - **Base Prices and Changes**: On December 2nd, the base prices of HC main contract, RB main contract, I main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were - 5.00 yuan/ton, 187.00 yuan/ton, 9.00 yuan/ton, 158.19 yuan/ton, and 123.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 2.00 yuan, 11.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, and - 128.50 yuan [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 入 期 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 客 服 热 线 官 方 网 站 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 市 市 肃 有 译 风 ITG国贸期货 白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/12/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | | | 地区 | 2025/12/2 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | 国 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 5565 | -20 | 0 | 183 | 3 | | | 山东 | 日照 | 5750 | 0 | 100 | 268 | 23 | | 数 盘 | | SR01 | 5382 | -23 | | | | | 据 面 | | SRO5 | 5316 | -17 | SR01-05 | ୧୧ | -6 | | | 人 ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 白素娜 投资咨询号:Z0013700 从业资格号: F3023916 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/03 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 贵金属与新能源研究中心 SMM. 公升新闻整 据来源: 锂化合物 平均价 100000 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 94400 50 2500 SMM工业级碳酸锂 91950 50 2000 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 碳酸锂2607 96180 -0.72% 碳酸锂2608 96500 -0. 88% 40000 碳酸锂2609 -0. 94% 96440 碳酸锂2610 96440 -0. 64% 500 碳酸锂2611 96240 -0. 82% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 1184 -6 = (120.5 5%-6%) 种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 95626 H # 利 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -2534 >EE 94173 F 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -3390 本周碳酸锂减产265吨,去库2452吨 行 小 国家发展 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/12/3 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/1 | 2025/12/2 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 455. 7 | 453.8 | -1.90 | 成交情况: PTA:成本支撑,PTA缓慢去库存中,下游刚需偏稳, | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1450. 4 | 1454. 2 | 3.81 | PTA行情小涨。而PTA仓单数量较多,PTA现货基差上涨 之力。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4380 | 1. 4410 | 0. 0030 | | | | CFR中国PX | 849 | 849 | 0 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 277 | 282 | 5 | | | | PTA主力期 ...

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格龈踪 | 2025/12/2 | 4212. 70 | 57. 14 | 4243. 50 | 57.77 | 955. 02 | 13417.00 | 953. 21 | 13425.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/12/1 | 4236. 98 | 56. 79 ...

瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2025/12/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/12/1 | 2025/12/2 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4710 | 4720 | 10 | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 3901 | 3882 | -19 | 短纤:涤纶短纤主力期货涨28至6304。现货市 | | PTA收盘价 | 4762 | 4752 | -10 | 场:涤纶短纤生产工厂价格僵持运行,贸易商价 | | MEG收盘价 | 3882 | 3877 | -5 | 格横盘震荡,下游刚需采购,工厂产销一般。 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6415 | 6416 | 1 | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 | | | | | | 场价格在6180-6500现款现汇含税自提,华北市 | | 短纤基差 | 64 | 65 | 1 | 场价格在63 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On December 1st, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, while agricultural products showed mixed performance. Industrial products mostly rose, and agricultural products had both gains and losses [1] - The focus of the steel futures market in December will shift from reality to macro - expectations, and short - term market sentiment is favorable [1] - The rising trend of basic metals is supported by multiple factors, and the fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable [1] - The geopolitical situation and OPEC's production plan affect the energy - chemical products market, and the pressure on oil prices may increase if Russian oil returns to normal [1] - The short - term soybean market lacks new drivers, and palm oil prices may rise if the减产 logic is confirmed [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Black Series - All black series commodities rose. The recent demand for finished products improved, speculative demand rebounded significantly, and inventory continued to decline. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.25% to 1400.81 million tons, reaching a 3.5 - month low, while production increased by 0.68% to 85.71 million tons, and apparent demand slightly decreased by 0.69% to 88 million tons, still higher than the same period last year [1] Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. The price of copper broke through the previous high, and the upward trend is supported by multiple factors in the medium term. The price of aluminum fluctuated upward, with low inventory and resilient demand [1] Energy - Chemical Products - Most energy - chemical products rose. International oil prices pulled up strongly in Asian electronic trading, and the domestic crude - oil series mostly rose. Geopolitical contradictions remain, and OPEC plans to maintain the current production plan. The pressure on oil prices will increase if Russian oil returns to normal [1] Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils rose. The price of US soybeans declined, and the domestic soybean meal market lacks new drivers. Palm oil prices are supported by seasonal production reduction expectations, and the price may rise if the reduction logic is confirmed [1] Index Changes - The comprehensive index of Guomao Commodities rose by 1.13% from 2200 to 2224.82 [1] - The daily consumption index rose by 0.85% from 1587.47 to 1601.03 [1] - The Guomao Black Commodity Index rose by 1.12% from 1700.99 to 1720.10 [1] - The Guomao Energy - Chemical Index decreased by 0.05% from 575.99 to 575.72 [1] - The Guomao Oilseeds and Oils Index rose by 0.03% from 2124.65 to 2125.19 [1]