1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish investment view on the PTA market, with a long - only trading strategy for the single - side trade [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market is mainly driven by the supply side and is expected to be strong. The PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. The domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a record high, and existing devices will operate at full capacity to meet the growing demand of polyester. Although the domestic polyester demand has declined, the impact on PTA is limited, and the PTA consumption remains high, with the processing fee expanding rapidly. The PTA port inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the negative feedback from downstream polyester factories has weakened the basis. The PTA and PX profits have expanded significantly. The PTA price has rebounded significantly, and the overseas PX device has increased its load due to the profit expansion. The geopolitical risk is a factor that requires attention [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. The domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a record high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA capacity throughout the year, existing devices will operate at full capacity to match the growing polyester demand. The PX - mixed xylene spread is maintained at around $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has dropped to $335. The PTA processing fee has rebounded to 400 yuan [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. The domestic polyester demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has a certain negative feedback on PTA, but the impact is limited. The PTA consumption remains high, and the processing fee has expanded rapidly [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The PTA port inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the negative feedback from downstream polyester factories has weakened the basis [3]. - **Basis and Profit**: Bullish. The PTA profit has expanded significantly, and PX maintains high profits. The PX - naphtha spread has reached $335, and the PTA processing fee has expanded to around 400 yuan [3]. - **Valuation and Macro - policy**: Neutral. The PTA price has rebounded significantly, and the price has returned above 5200 yuan. The reforming device profit has rebounded, and the overseas PX device has increased its load due to the profit expansion. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may affect the market, but the current impact on the PTA market is relatively neutral [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Bullish. Driven by the supply side, the market is expected to be strong [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - only for single - side trade. Geopolitical risks need to be noted [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamental Overview - **Crude Oil**: The situation in Iran is tense, and the crude oil price has risen strongly [5]. - **Gasoline**: The US gasoline is waiting for inventory building. The refinery is operating at a very high load, and the gasoline cracking profit is weakening. The global aromatics and gasoline blending component market is dominated by geopolitical risks. The European gasoline price has risen sharply, and the current premium structure has expanded. However, the upward movement of the aromatic hydrocarbon price lacks fundamental support and is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums and energy cost transmission. If the situation in the Middle East eases or refineries restart on a large scale, the market may face correction pressure [9][15][31]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamental Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbons in General**: The Asian aromatic hydrocarbon and gasoline blending market shows a structural trend under the influence of geopolitical risks and regional supply - demand differentiation. The overseas mixed xylene market shows a differentiated trend, and the price is mainly driven by energy costs, local supply disturbances, and gasoline blending demand expectations rather than the improvement of the aromatic hydrocarbon chain fundamentals. If the situation in the Middle East eases or the European supply recovers, the price may correct, but the market may strengthen further as the Q2 gasoline blending season approaches [47][53]. - **PX**: It is the core of the polyester industry price fluctuation. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to the futures. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply is still tight, and the profit structure is still healthy [52][67]. - **PTA**: The domestic PTA capacity is large, and the processing range has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and new capacities, the option - based income enhancement plan is increasingly widely used in the market [52][58]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: They are in the capacity launch cycle. Since the domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, the overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the route [52][58]. - **Mixed Xylene**: The price has continued to rise, mainly supported by the strong crude oil price and the short - term tight regional supply. As multiple devices are gradually restarted in late January, the supply will gradually recover, and the market may turn to a stable and weak trend. Without new geopolitical or device disturbances, the upward price space is limited [54][59]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamental Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: It has returned to a weak state, waiting for cost expectations. Overseas ethylene glycol prices have rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is operating at about 80% capacity, and due to profit considerations, the plant plans to switch a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene in mid - February, and the duration of the conversion is to be determined [75][81]. - **Gasoline**: The Asian gasoline profit is strong, waiting for domestic gasoline exports [82]. - **Polyester**: The profits of the upstream industrial chain have expanded. The PX - naphtha spread and the PTA processing fee have increased, and the cash flows of polyester products such as bottle - chips, DTY, POY, and FDY have also changed accordingly [100].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 供应端进入减产期，宏观情绪驱动胶价上涨 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 天然橡胶:供应端进入减产期，宏观情绪驱动胶价上涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：目前国内产区停割，暂无原料分析。（2）泰国产区：泰北进入停割期，泰东北进入割胶尾声，预计二月初停割，泰南维持旺产期产出， 目前泰国产区整体进入季节性供应减量阶段，原料采购价格易涨难跌。（3）越南产区：本周越南产区天气晴好，整体已进入割胶尾声，南部产区预计持续 | | | | 割胶至春节前，当地加工厂进入 做囤货阶段，周内产区原料价格延续高位震荡。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）截至上周中国全钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率为62.47%，环比-0.06个百分点，同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - **Domestic Factors**: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Fed Policy**: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Nominee for Fed Chair**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - **Japan's Situation**: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Data**: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - **Tax Reform**: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - **Commodity Prices**: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]

黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需平淡，价格震荡 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2026-02-02 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需平淡，价格震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.1万吨，与22日持平。行业开工率为71.62%，与15日持平；浮法玻璃行业产能利用率为75.57%，与15 | | | | 日持平。本周1条产线复产点火，但尚未出玻璃，暂无产线放水，日产量维持平稳。下周暂无产线存在点火或者冷修预期。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，但随着时间的推移，需求端受季节性因素影响，下游逐步进入收尾阶段，且对节后需求观望心态浓厚，节前囤货积极性不高，对 原片产销支撑偏弱。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存小幅去库，企业总库存5256.4万重箱，环比-65.2万重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for butadiene rubber is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Butadiene has strong fundamental support, while cis - butadiene rubber faces profit and inventory pressures, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. With high bullish sentiment from macro and capital factors, both futures and spot prices are rising. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of reduced production at cis - butadiene plants, and trading volume among traders and downstream users is decreasing. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 12,800 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to rise further [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose significantly and then oscillated at a high level, with the spot price ranging from 12,300 to 13,100 yuan/ton. The increase was mainly due to the tight supply and rising prices of overseas butadiene resources, as well as the positive commodity market atmosphere. However, downstream users showed resistance to high prices, and the production of some northern private cis - butadiene rubber plants was reduced due to losses. Overall, the domestic production volume changed little [6] 3.2 Influence Factors of Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%; the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. Some butadiene plants remained shut down, while some restarted, and the weekly production increased. For cis - butadiene rubber, the plant of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, but attention should be paid to the operating load of private plants in North China due to poor profitability [4] 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, agents made small - scale purchases at the end of the month, but the sales in the distribution channels and at the terminal were weak, inventory consumption was slow, and social inventory increased. For all - steel tires, the market remained sluggish in the second half of the month, with weak sales in distribution channels and at the terminal. Merchants focused on collecting payments, and the promotional policies of some brands were ineffective. Downstream users were cautious about purchasing and mostly postponed their procurement until after the festival [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 40,500 tons, a 17.39% increase from the previous week; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber among enterprises and traders was 34,430 tons, a 2.74% decrease from the previous week. The port inventory of butadiene increased due to the arrival of imported ships, while the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at production enterprises decreased due to production losses and reduced operating loads, and the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly [4] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 890 yuan/ton, in East China was - 790 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 790 yuan/ton [4] 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU and BR was 2,970 yuan/ton; the spread between NR and BR was - 155 yuan/ton; the price ratio of BR to SC was - 0.41% [4] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was 1,918 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction was 3,512.64 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 418 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 3.12% [4] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - Last week, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 3.6 million barrels more than expected, and the IEA maintained its expectation of a loose crude oil supply in 2026. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group were restructured. Tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine region escalated due to the US's attack on Iran. The natural gas price soared by 60% due to the cold wave, and oil and gas prices rose in the short - term. Incidents such as the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers also increased market panic about geopolitics [4] 3.3 Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips and follow the market and capital trends. For arbitrage, the strategy is to go long on BR and short on NR/RU [4] 3.4 Correlation Analysis of Related Varieties of Synthetic Rubber - The report provides correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends for crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties over 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [11] 3.5 Device Status - The report lists the maintenance and shutdown status of butadiene plants and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2026, including production enterprises, maintenance capacity, shutdown time, and expected startup time [12][13]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 恐慌性抛售席卷贵金属市场，金银暴跌 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-02 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属价格波动剧烈，先扬后抑，全线崩盘。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）上半周，在避 险需求强劲和美元走弱等因素的提振下，贵金属价格加速冲高，伦敦现货黄金逼近5600美元/盎 司，伦敦现货白银突破121美元/盎司关口。一方面，美国对伊朗极限施压，市场愈发担忧美国 对伊朗"动武"，地缘避险持续升温，驱动贵金属价格大幅上涨；另一方面，市场对美日联合干 预汇市的预期和特朗普对美元贬值的表态令美元指数一度大幅走弱至95.5附近，进一步利好贵金 属价格。（2）下半周，在金银多头头寸极度拥挤背景下，因美股流动性收紧的触发，贵金属市 场开始出现获利了结压力。随后周五亚盘外媒报道称特朗普政府将提名前理事凯文·沃什出任新 美联储主席，这一消息在昨日晚间得到特朗普确认。因沃什 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在70.60万吨，较上周增加1.02%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率85.35%，较上周期减少了0.68个百分点。本周期 | | | | 装置情况来看，周内上海石化、大庆石化、齐鲁石化等企业存在新增检修计划，新增检修装置虽有增加，不过多于周后期检修，存量检修装置陆续重启， | | | | 因此产能利用率环比上周减少。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.9%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-1.0%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.8%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期-1.8%。其中农膜 ...

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - The present values of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1317, 1176, 1867, 1294, 2605, 1418, 1859, and 2424 respectively [4]. - The previous values of these indices are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1305, 2896, 1595, 1954, and 2756 respectively [4]. - The percentage changes of these indices are -9.68%, -2.74%, -10.41%, -0.84%, -10.05%, -11.10%, -4.86%, and -12.05% respectively [4]. Group 2: Market News and Geopolitical Situation - Mixed signals from the US and Iran have led to a slight decline in the market's probability prediction of a military strike. Iranian senior officials said efforts to start negotiations with the US are making progress [5]. - According to the Wall Street Journal, the possibility of the US launching an air strike on Iran in the near term is low as the US is still moving air - defense capabilities to the region [5]. - The USS Abraham Lincoln has left the Gulf of Oman and entered the Indian Ocean as part of a retreat [5]. Group 3: EC (European Container) Market - The EC market shows a volatile trend. The spot prices are in a pre - holiday decline, with different adjustments among alliances [6]. - In the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to 2000 - 2100 dollars/FEU and further to 1995 dollars/FEU in WK7, while Hapag - Lloyd maintained 2300 - 2500 dollars/FEU in WK6 and remained stable in WK7 [6]. - In the OA alliance, the price in WK6 slightly fell to around 2500 dollars/FBU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to 2200 - 2300 dollars/FBU, with East China ports likely to follow [6]. - In the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between 2200 - 2400 dollars/FEU in WK6, and in WK7, influenced by ONE's WK8 list price of 2000 dollars/FEU, the average price approached 2000 dollars/FEU, with some special prices at 1800 dollars/FEU [6]. - MSC also slightly lowered its prices from WK6 to WK7. Affected by the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum, all alliances' quotes showed a downward trend [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - This week, the EC market is in a "differentiated pattern under the game between expectation and reality", with a misalignment between futures and spot performance. Futures are supported by multiple expectations and prices have risen, while the spot market remains weak [7]. - The core logic for the futures rise is the rush - shipping expectation due to the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates, geopolitical conflicts, and bad weather in Northwest Europe. The spot market is affected by pre - holiday low cargo volume and price cuts by shipping companies [7]. - In the medium and long - term, there is a risk of over - capacity. New ships will be delivered in 2026, and the resumption of the Red Sea route will release hidden capacity, suppressing the freight rate center [7]. - The strategy suggests caution, not chasing high prices. For hedging, it is advisable to hold positions, and for arbitrage, gradually reduce positions. Key factors to track include shipping companies' price increases, Red Sea route resumption signals, and cargo volume data [7]. - In the short - term, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling has decreased. It is recommended to focus on going long on the 06 contract at low levels and short - selling the off - season 10 contract on rebounds [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to be sufficient, but logistics congestion may cause the selling pressure on Brazilian soybean discounts to be postponed. The production of Argentine soybeans may be affected by dry conditions, but rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] - The demand for soymeal shows a seasonal decline. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. The far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control. [10] - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, and the current inventory is still at a high level. The number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] - In the short term, the unilateral price of soymeal is expected to have limited rebound and will maintain a weak and volatile trend later. The domestic supply - demand situation in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is expected to show a reverse spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Basis Data - On January 30th, the basis of 43% soymeal spot in Dalian was 453, up 15; in Rizhao and Zhangjiagang it was 373, up 15; in Tianjin it was 413, up 35; in Dongguan it was 353, up 35; in Zhanjiang it was 383, up 35; in Fangcheng it was 373. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 105, down 42. [4] - M3 - M2 was 294, unchanged; RM5 - 9 was - 19, down 11. [4] b. Inventory Data - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, but the current inventory is still at a high level, and the number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] c. International Supply Data - As of January 24th, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 6.6%, up 2.3% from last week and 3.2% faster than the same period last year. The pre - sale progress of new Brazilian soybeans is about 31%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season to reach 178 million tons. [10] - As of January 21st, the proportion of good - rated soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 38% (last week's value was 61%, last year's same - period value was 26%), and rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] d. Domestic Demand Data - The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. Under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control, the far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink. The pre - holiday procurement of soymeal is over, the far - month trading volume has increased, and the delivery performance is good. [10]

随着市场情绪转暖,双硅价格震荡向上。首先是当前国内经济韧性, 地产短期企稳复苏迹象明显,其次是板块轮动效应强 化,黑色受低估值强支撑,再者是市场资金充盈,流动性推动叙事不可小觑,而产业情绪谨慎,中下游低库存,补库需求释 放可期。需求端,直接需求和终端需求整体平淡,需求端短期暂时难有改善。供给端,整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏 高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。宏观方面,国内宏观政策加速出台,岁末年初稳经济需 求下,刺激政策利好为主。"双碳"和反内卷目标下,产业政策对双硅的供给形成扰动和成本支撑预期。总体看来,近期双 硅基本面延续承压,供给偏高而需求走弱。但短期市场情绪主导为主,双硅价格或偏强震荡 as ■ 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤(蒙古,A10%,V27% 期货收盘价(活跃合约 400 3000 2500 200 500 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) - 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金焦(A13,SO - 期货收益价(活跃合约):焦 1200 1000 | 铁矿基差(右轴) | 800 【焦煤焦炭】产业淡季驱动不足,跟随叙事震荡运行 | E .. . | 国贸期货出品 ...