投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在82.63%环比增加1.21%，同比增加3.60%；其中电石法在82.94%环比增加0.81%，同比增加3.70%，乙烯法在81.90%环比增加2.15%，同比增加3.46%； | | | | （3）本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在4.31万吨，较上期增加0.06万吨。本周检修较少，影戏产能利用 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-13 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 关 税 风 波 再 起 ， 注 意 风 偏 受 拖 累 贸 易 纠 纷 再 起 ， 风 险 资 产 集 体 下 挫 03 铁矿石 贸 易 冲 突 再 次 加 剧 ， 风 险 资 产 受 挫 严 重 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 螺纹热卷产量及表需 0 80 160 240 320 400 480 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 08/28 10/27 12/26 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 6 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 10 47 万吨（ 1 08% ），产能利用率为 67 37 %；高顺顺丁产量 3 00 万吨（ 5 88% ），产能利用率为 74 69 %； | | 供给 | 偏空 | （2）周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、吉林石化一期、抚顺石化等装置维持停车状态，广州石化、镇海炼化、北方华锦装置停车检修，但同时中韩武 | | | | 汉和福建联合装置恢复，影响国内产量略有提升；顺丁橡胶：齐鲁石化顺丁橡胶装置短停检修，山东益华、山东威特顺丁橡胶装置投料重启。 | | | | （1）半钢胎市场方面，本周期恰逢"双节"假期，私家车出行增多，对终端需求形成提振，终端门店出货增加明显，渠道货源流通增加，周期内市场成 | | 需求 | 中性 | 交价格稳定；（2）全钢胎市场方面，本周期因"双节"假期因素，市场多数商家有短期放假情况，渠道成交量减少，多数商家消化库存为主，补货后延。 | | | | 假期期间，货车高速限行，物流短暂放假停运现象较多，全钢胎终端需求表现偏弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :现货价格持稳，盘面震荡偏强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周我国LLDPE产量总计在31.89吨，较上周上涨3.21%。（2）本周中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率83.95%，较上周期增加了1.86百分点。本周期装 | | | | 置情况来看，周内暂无新增检修装置，且前期部分存量装置于周内重启，因此产能利用率有所提升。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+1.64%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期+2.75%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.52%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游 制品平均开工率较前期+0.24。其中农膜整体开工率较前期+2.75%；PE管 ...

| 11 | 无法采购美豆。明年一季度的豆粕供应仍需补充，补充来源暂不确定。需求方面,畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，支撑饲用需求,但目前养 | | --- | --- | | | 殖利润呈现亏损，国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重。或影响远月供应;豆相性价比较高，伺用添比较高;下游现货成交表现良好。库 | | 结 | 存方面,国内大豆库存增至高位;本周油厂豆粕库存略降，目前库存处于高位水平，饲料企业豆粗库存天数上升。宏观及政策方面，交 | | | 通运输部发布自10月14日起对美船舶收取船舶特别选择费的公告,预期抬升部分大豆进口成本和海运费,特朗普宣布自2025年11月1日起 | | | 对中国进口商品加征100%关税,中美贸易紧张局势再度升级。 | | | 整体来说，短期001受中美贸易战升级影响或有一定反弹，但反弹高度仍受限于市场对于中美贸易政策的不确定性和国内豆相库存高 | | | 企的现实,后期建议关注中美政策、南美拉尼娜天气炒作及美豆单产调整情况。 | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸纲货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整胜做任何保证。本报告不构 | | से | 成个人投资建议,也 ...

Report Title - [New Energy Weekly Report] [1] Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Nonferrous Metals Research Center [2] - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling [2] - Assistant Analyst: Chen Yusen [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The polysilicon market has an "anti - involution" policy framework, and the fundamentals may improve in the medium to long term, but prices may fluctuate in the short term. The lithium carbonate market has strong terminal demand, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [8][9][86] Summary by Directory 1. Nonferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report monitors the closing prices of various nonferrous metals and new energy products, including the US dollar index, exchange rates, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, etc. For example, the current value of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6] 2. Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 95,500 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from the previous week. The number of open furnaces is 313, an increase of 3 from the previous week. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month and a 7.33% decrease from the same period last year. October production is planned to be 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from the previous month and a 2.84% decrease from the same period last year [8] - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 32,000 tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Organic silicon DMC weekly production is 47,600 tons, a 1.04% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 693,900 tons, a 0.86% decrease from the previous week, with year - on - year growth of 23.18%. The industry inventory is 442,500 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, a 0.07% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 133 yuan, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - **Investment View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the price may fluctuate [8] Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase from the previous week. August production was 131,700 tons, a 23.31% increase from the previous month and a 2.41% increase from the same period last year. September production is planned to be 126,700 tons, a 3.80% decrease from the previous month and a 2.69% decrease from the same period last year [9] - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 13.65GW, a 0.27% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.60GW, a 0.45% increase from the previous week [9] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 25,390 tons, a 4.83% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 24,420 tons, a 3.30% increase from the previous week [9] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,543 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,057 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week [9] - **Investment View**: The "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" policy framework may improve the fundamentals of polysilicon in the medium to long term. Due to the long - term non - implementation of "anti - involution", market sentiment has subsided, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] 3. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. September production was 87,300 tons, a 2.37% increase from the previous month and a 52.00% increase from the same period last year. October production is planned to be about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from the previous month and a 50.78% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month and a 23.54% increase from the same period last year. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month and a 33.13% decrease from the same period last year [86] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,100 tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 18,800 tons, a 0.48% increase from the previous week [86] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a 11.91% increase from the previous month and a 27.40% increase from the same period last year; the sales volume was 1.3953 million, a 10.55% increase from the previous month and a 26.84% increase from the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative winning bid power of domestic energy storage was 41.09GW/111.43GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 134,800 tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous week. The lithium salt factory inventory is 34,700 tons, a 4.85% decrease from the previous week [86] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external purchase is 77,806 yuan/ton, a 1.17% decrease from the previous week; the production profit is - 7,315 yuan/ton, an increase of 727 yuan/ton from the previous week [86] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, pushing up prices. In the medium to long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [86]

分析师：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 助理分析师：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本周能化大宗产品收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | | | | | 能化产品收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | | | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | | 年涨跌幅 | | 周价格走势 | | 美元兑人民币汇率 | 元 | 7 1048 . | -0 . | 08% | | 0 . | 05% | 0 . | 46% | | 天然橡胶 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇周报（MA）】 港口库存高位，需求疲软 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：港口库存高位，需求疲软 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 本周国内甲醇供给呈增加态势。装置检修恢复量多于损失量，产能利用率上升；周产量、总供应量环比增长。进口资源充足，进口量环比大幅增加，且港口因内外轮卸船等因 | | | | 素库存累积，整体供给端压力有所显现。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 节后传统下游备货节奏放缓，部分内地烯烃装置重启，需求逐步恢复。但节前下游备货因国庆假期早早收尾，节后企业新签订单有限，待发订单大幅减少。MTO 消费量小幅增 | | | | 加，总消费量环比增长，不过需求增量整体小于供应端增量，供需格局仍偏宽松。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 本周甲醇库存呈分化态势。港口库存因节后内外轮显性卸货量计入 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 中美贸易摩擦再升级，贵金属或延续偏强运行 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-13 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | ◆ 上周黄金白银冲高回落，但周线仍大幅上涨。主要影响因素分析如下：国庆假期，因美国联 | | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 邦政府时隔7年再度"停摆"、法国日本政治不确定提升等大幅提升市场避险情绪，与此同时，美 | | | | | | | | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4017.845 | 3885.660 | 132.185 | 3.40% | | 国9月ADP数据不及预期和市场担忧美国政府停摆将增加经济走弱风险，强化美联储10月降息预期， | 沪金主力 | ...

·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2023- 2025- 2025- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2024-10 2025-08 05 09 01 02 09 01 05 09 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 ·DTY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2025- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2023- 02 09 01 02 09 01 05 0მ 01 -800 投资咨询业务资 ...