| 可能做 | | | | 日時 策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业分格号:F025192 | | | | 发布日期 2025/07 | | 行业板块 | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | | | 短期内,国内外利多因素平平,市场情绪和流动性尚可,股指或 呈现偏强震荡格局。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | | 否间。 | | | | 黄金 | | 震荡 | 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主。 | | | T 自银 | | 農汤 | 市场不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 | | | | | 温. | 铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | 看空 的。 | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | | 氧化铝 | | 辰川 | 国内反内卷政策提振供给侧改革预期,氧化铝价格企稳回升。 | | | | | | 宏观情绪改善下锌价企稳,基本面上累 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/9 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/7/7 | 2025/7/8 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 502. 3 | 510. 7 | 8. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情微幅下跌,盘中原油偏弱震荡,下游聚 | | | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1059. 7 | 998. 7 | -61.04 | 酯工厂进一步减产,PTA需求走弱,且供应恢复下市场 心态谨慎,现货价格及基差有所走弱。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2903 | 1. 2691 | -0. 0212 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 842 | 847 | 5 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 263 | 270 | 7 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 一国贸易货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Z0017251 2025/7/9 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/7 | 2025/7/8 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4810 | 4800 | (10.00) | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4345 | 4360 | 15.00 | 现货资讯: | | PTA收盘价 | 4710 | 4710 | 0.00 | 短纤:聚酯瓶片江浙市场主流商谈在5900-6010 | | MEG收盘价 | 4279 | 4267 | (12.00) | 吨,均价较上一工作日跌5元/吨。日内聚酯原料 | | | | | | 及瓶片期货窄幅震荡,供应端报盘多数维持,下 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6760 | 6735 | (25.00) | 游采购维持刚需补库,市场交投气氛谨慎,今日 | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.31 | 0.01 | DR007 | 1.46 | -0.25 | | हूं | GC001 | 1.50 | 1.00 | GC007 | 1.52 | 1.50 | | E | SHBOR 3M | 1.57 | -0.90 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.48 | 0.85 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.64 | 0.35 | 10年期美债 | 0.00 | -435.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了690亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market shows an upward trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The tariff extension will keep the cargo shipment from the Far East to the US going for some time, which is beneficial for August and reduces the expected decline from the high point in August, leading to the repair of the discount [12]. - The spot price of the European route is stable in early July. The market expects shipping companies to announce price increases in August as usual, but the actual effect may not be optimistic due to the disrupted shipping rhythm. Currently, it is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1343, down 1.92%. SCFI - US West dropped 18.97%, SCFIS - US West fell 3.83%, SCFI - US East decreased 12.57%, while SCFI - Northwest Europe rose 3.50%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased 6.36%, and SCFI - Mediterranean declined 3.89% [5]. - **Forward Contracts**: For EC contracts, most of the current values are higher than the previous values, with the increase rate ranging from 1.68% to 6.23%. The EC2508 contract has the highest increase rate of 6.23% [5]. - **Positions**: The positions of some contracts have changed. For example, the EC2606 position increased by 18, and the EC2508 position increased by 536 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 73.0, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 6.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread increased by 25.7 [5]. Important News - A ship was attacked off the southwest coast of Yemen on Sunday. The attacked ship is a Liberian - flagged, Greek - owned bulk carrier "Maxic Seas", which was hit by a maritime drone and then took in water [5]. - Some EU auto - makers and governments are pushing for a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. The EU must reach a trade deal with Trump by July 9, or the tariffs on almost all EU goods exported to the US will jump to 50% [6]. - The first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Qatar ended without results [7]. - CMA added an extra ship on the 11th and still has available space. MSK added an extra ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in week 31 [7][8]. - There is congestion at East China ports. MSC adjusted its port calls, either only calling at Shanghai or only at Ningbo [9]. - The loading rate of the European route was good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10]. - The OA Alliance suspended two sailings on the CES route, resulting in insufficient ship capacity and reduced cabin space [11]. Spot and Strategy - The central price of the spot in the second week of July is about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quote in the second week of July rose slightly from 2900 to 2960, and the departure price from Shanghai to Rotterdam on the third week was 2950, higher than the previous market expectation of a decline starting from the third week [13]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread long position and pay attention to the 8 - 10 calendar spread long position. Due to the relatively low shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30 and the strong opening of Maersk's cabin in week 3 of July, combined with the expected congestion in Europe, the 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On July 8, 2025, the futures price of SP2601 was 5294, with a daily increase of 0.34% and a weekly increase of 1.50%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, with no daily or weekly change. Other futures and spot prices also had corresponding changes, and the foreign - market quotes and import costs of some pulp varieties showed a trend of quantity increase and price decrease [1]. - The foreign - market quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and its import cost was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68% [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and that of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The pulp shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. Chilean Arauco Company announced the new July wood pulp foreign - market quotes, showing an increase in supply volume and a decrease in price [1]. - **Demand**: The output of major finished paper increased slightly this week, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 221.3 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [2]. Strategy In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2].

世界500强投资企业 E 突期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 市 市 服 热线 官 方 网 站 開 有 客 训 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn t馆 No 入 II 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/7/8 | 3336. 45 | 36. 85 | 3346. 60 | 37.07 | 774. ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 碳酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 2025/07/09 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 数据来源:SMM. 公开新闻整理 锂化合物 平均价 1000000 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 62900 350 4000 80000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 61300 350 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 碳酸锂2507 65100 2.01% 碳酸锂2508 64240 0. 85% 40000 碳酸锂2509 0. 69% 63880 碳酸锂2510 63740 0. 7% 1000 碳酸锂2511 63540 0. 6% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 658 4 44 (1 i 20 · 5 5%-6%) 利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 61988 生产利 用 外购锂辉石精矿利润 46 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 67099 F 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6586 行业 津巴布韦将从 2027 年起禁止锂精矿出口。根据路透社,2025 ...

| 热卷基差(右轴) - 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75mm - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 -500 | 焦煤基差(右轴) 5000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) = 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级治金焦(A13. 期货收盘价(活跃合约):焦炭 铁矿基差(右轴) 年板价:青岛港:澳大利亚 · 詔 2000 000 2025/07/09 | | | | 5/07/09 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 市千町 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

CI + m 中 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 IIG 国贸期 权教据日报 | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 张肤帽(%) | | | 成交额(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 | 2731. 5324 -0. 33 | | | 566. 60 | | 29. 32 | | | 沪深300 | 3965. 1746 -0. 43 | | | 2251.07 | | 131.14 | | | 中证1000 | 6327.139 0.24 | | | 2648. 35 | | 210. 48 | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | | | 指数 | 期权成交里 认沽期权 | 认购期权 | 日成交里 | 期权持仓里 | 认购期权 | 认洁期权 | 持仓里 | | | (万张) 成交里 | 成交里 | PCR | (万5k) | 持仓里 | 持创里 | PCR | | 上证50 | 2. 26 0. 71 | 1.54 | 0. ...