投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 老仓单压力较大，纸浆底部震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-13 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆：老仓单压力较大，纸浆底部震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | Suzano宣布2025年9月亚洲价格上涨20美元/吨，欧美价格上涨80美元/吨；智利Arauco公司9月针叶浆银星报价700美元/吨；阔叶浆明星 报价540美元/吨，上涨20美元/吨；阔叶浆外盘连续两期外盘报价上涨，但针叶浆外盘报价下降。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 目前木浆用纸的产量和价格没有出现明显的上涨，"金九银十"旺季并未带来纸浆库存去库，整体需求仍显清淡。 | | | 库存 | 偏空 | 截至2025年10月9日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term M01 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic soybean meal inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA's estimated yield per acre of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season may be further reduced. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 8.2% as of October 4. In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to decline, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under the Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the distant months. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream spot trading of soybean meal is good, while the downstream trading of rapeseed meal is cautious [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level. This week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased. Domestic rapeseed stocks have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal stocks have been continuously depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while the profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. - **Valuation**: From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent price of soybean meal futures is at a neutral valuation [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: The Ministry of Transport's announcement of charging special port fees for US ships is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump's announcement of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese - imported goods has escalated the Sino - US trade tension [4]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and arbitrage is on hold. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4]. Part Two: Fundamental Data on Supply and Demand of Meal Products - **Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [33][39]. - **US Soybean Situation**: The sowing rate and excellent - good rate of US soybeans are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has slightly declined. The export sales performance of US soybeans is poor [48][53][65]. - **Import and Price**: The CNF premium of soybeans, the import price of Canadian rapeseed, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real are shown. The monthly import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is also provided [72][75][77]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is at different levels. The inventory of soybeans is at a high level, soybean meal has a slight reduction in inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [80]. - **Trading Volume and Consumption**: The trading volume and consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The spot trading volume of soybean meal has increased, but the holiday pick - up volume has declined [103]. - **Price Difference and Feed Production**: The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the monthly feed production are shown [115][117]. - **Breeding Situation**: The breeding profits and related data of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, including the decline in pig prices and the high weight of pigs [119][123][127]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 新粮卖压预期，玉米震荡筑底 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-13 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:新粮卖压预期，玉米震荡筑底 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）新粮集中上市，北港恢复上量，华北阴雨天气引发新粮品质担忧，农户加速卖粮，山东深加工到货量处于高位；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降， 推算集港约1950-2100元吨；播种面积稳中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预期；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | 需求 | 短期偏多， 中期偏空 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年8月，全国工业饲料产量2936万吨，环比增长3.7%，同比增长3.8%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为32.9%； （2）畜禽短期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations, the European Container Freight Index (EC) shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot freight rate is favorable, but political and economic factors are unfavorable. The supply of shipping capacity and demand are neutral. In the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of cargo owners". The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased and verified, with the second quarter of next year as the first substantial observation point [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Spot Freight Rate**: Bullish. This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500, and the overall quotation range in late October was 2000 - 2200 (MSK's price increase letter indicates 2500 in early November) [3] - **Political and Economic**: Bearish. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods from November 1. China announced new restrictions on rare - earth exports. The US adjusted the 232 - clause tariff on some products. Israel and Hamas reached a peace agreement, but there are still uncertainties [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The average weekly shipping capacity deployment in September was 305,000 TEU, 250,000 TEU in October, 280,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate declined rapidly, lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. The loading rate of GEMINI rebounded due to significant price cuts, while those of the other two alliances continued to decline [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and the 10 - 12 spread trading is in a long - short positive spread. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data on European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices, as well as Maersk's European line quotations [6][12] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on order volume, new - order volume, and order volume by loading capacity [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on future delivery volume, future delivery volume by quarter and season, and future delivery volume by loading capacity [24][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on ship - breaking price by loading capacity and new - shipbuilding price index and price by loading capacity [31] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on second - hand ship price index and second - hand ship price by loading capacity [37] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships**: There are data on existing shipping capacity, existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofitting ratios, average age, and average age of ship - breaking [46][49][53] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: There are data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, and the shipping capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [61][63][65][67][69] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers**: There are data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average age and duration of installation, and average speed [71][72][75] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on idle shipping capacity, idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle shipping capacity, and shipping capacity for desulfurization tower retrofitting [79][80]

【1】特朗普在Truth Social上发出最新威胁——将从11月1日起对中国原产商品征收100%关税。【2】中国宣布对稀 土及相关技术出口实施新的限制措施,被普遍认为是为了在即将到来的会晤前增强其在贸易谈判中的筹码。中国商 务部同时公布了新版"不可靠实体清单",重点针对那些高度依赖中国稀土资源的美国国防科技企业。【3】10 月 9 目美国总统特朗普宣布,以色列与哈马斯已达成和平协议。在第一阶段，以色列将部分撤军离开加沙，哈马斯将 直 副 税）、厨房橱柜（25%关税）和软体家具（25%关税）。【5】在签署加沙协议后，内塔尼亚胡威胁：若以方诉求未" 以和平方式"满足,将重启战争。以色列中层谈判代表团将留在埃及继续推进加沙树议第二阶段。一位以色列官员 同《以色列时报》证实,中层谈判代表团将留在沙姆沙伊赫(Sharm el-Sheikh),继续推动加沙新协议的落实。下 一阶段将聚焦哈马斯的"解除武装"和"加沙治理安排"。【6】美国总统唐纳德·特朗普预计将于下周一上午抵达 以色列,在国会发表演讲并会见获释人质。以色列官员称,由于安全考虑,特朗普不会前往特拉维夫的人质广场。 自宫与以方今日中午通话,特朗普团队称此次访问 ...

本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 原油受多重原因影响下挫，沥青跟跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 沥青：原油受多重原因影响下挫，沥青跟跌 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给 中性 （1）10月地炼排产：对于10月地炼排产，两家资讯公司跟踪分别为160.4万吨及161万吨，环比分别上涨3%和9%。产量变动受多重因素影响：当前国际 原油价格走势偏弱，为地方炼厂生产沥青创造了利润改善空间，且 9-10 月原料供应较为充足，叠加传统需求旺季的利好支撑，多数地炼生产沥青的积极 性较高，其中河北鑫海、京博海南、弘润石化等炼厂的沥青装置维持满负荷运行，东明石化也在检修结束后于 10 月恢复稳定生产，共同推动沥青产量 环比提升。不过，岚桥石化计划 10 月下旬开 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所增加，产量有所下滑。周度国内烧碱产量环比下降0.2万吨至83万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.0%，较上 | | | | 周环比-0.7%。分区域来看，假期期间，西北及华北负荷均有下滑，其中西北-1.8%至91.8%；华北-1.4%至76.8%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）季节性淡季，非铝需求复工不足。（2）粘胶短纤行业产能利用率89.63%，较上周-0.19%。本周山东部分粘胶装置运行负荷降低，周内行业整体 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 宏观事件再生扰动，橡胶延续弱势表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：节间云南产区雨水偏多，原料释放缓慢，但受节前期现走跌拖拽，原料价格表现偏弱。海南产区多有雨水天气扰动，整体原料供应仍处于 | | 供给 | 中性 | 偏紧格局。（2）泰国产区：假期泰国产区降水较多，下周泰国全国将再次迎来一轮强降雨天气，特别是曼谷、中部、东部及南部地区，将成为降雨集中区 | | | | 域，局部可能出现暴雨天气，雨水天气或对原料供给造成影响。（3）越南产区：本周越南产区天气较上周改善，割胶作业干扰程度减轻，但尚未恢复至正 | | | | 常水平，产区库存仍偏低， 本土原料流通压力仍在，加工厂为保证交单，维持稳定采购力度，支撑价格保持坚挺 。 | | | | （1）截至上周中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为66.39%，环比+0.03个百分点，同比+6.27个百分点；半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为72.64%，环比-0.10个 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 原油弱势，纯苯苯乙烯跟随成本下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 美国STDP 亚洲苯-甲苯 欧洲纯苯-甲苯 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 01/02 03/02 05/02 07/02 09/02 11/02 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -600 -300 0 300 600 900 01/02 03/02 05/02 07/02 09/02 11/02 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 苯乙烯：原油供给增长，苯乙烯继续下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 检修期结束，苯乙烯供给增加。苯乙烯与石脑油 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 关税威胁扰动需求预期，油价延续弱势表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:关税威胁扰动需求预期，油价延续弱势表现 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 偏空 | （1）EIA：EIA继续上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,553万桶/日，较2024年上升234万桶 /日。(2)OPEC:8月份OPEC国家原油产量为2794.8万桶/日，较7月份上升47.8万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1445.2万桶/日，较7月份上升3万桶 | | | | /日。（3）IEA：8月份OPEC国家原油产量为2866万桶/日，较7月份上升13万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国 ...