| | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 蜈致据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F305427 | 2025/06/20 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | 指标 | 晋城无烟煤 | 2025/06/18 900. 00 | 2025/06/19 900. 00 | 涨跌值 0. 00 | 行情评述 | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | | 川渝液化气 | 4350.00 | 4350. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 国际大然气 太仓 | 13. 10 2670.00 | 12.98 2750.00 | -0.12 80. 00 | 昨日甲醇多地价格小幅上调。西北主 | | | | | | | 产区企业库存低位,下游及贸易商低 | | 肌喷价格 | 内蒙 | 2000. 00 | 2030. 00 | 30. 00 | 价 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The closing prices of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 2679.9218, 3874.9708, and 6135.3858 respectively, with changes of -0.15%, 0.12%, and -0.10% [4]. - The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 36.67 billion, 127.53 billion, and 204.11 billion respectively, and the trading turnovers were 621.34 billion yuan, 2305.54 billion yuan, and 2564.64 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to 3388.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.24%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.23%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.65%, the STAR 50 rose 0.53%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.07%. A - share trading volume was 1.22 trillion yuan, compared with 1.24 trillion yuan the previous day [8]. Group 2: CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading - For the Shanghai 50 index options, the trading volume was 3.02 million contracts, with 1.98 million call options and 1.05 million put options, and the PCR was 0.53. The open - interest was 7.45 million contracts, with 4.67 million call options and 2.78 million put options, and the PCR was 0.60 [4]. - For the CSI 300 index options, the trading volume was 7.68 million contracts, with 4.65 million call options and 3.03 million put options, and the PCR was 0.65. The open - interest was 19.68 million contracts, with 11.64 million call options and 8.04 million put options, and the PCR was 0.69 [4]. - For the CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume was 21.27 million contracts, with 10.62 million call options and 10.65 million put options, and the PCR was 1.00. The open - interest was 28.97 million contracts, with 14.86 million call options and 14.11 million put options, and the PCR was 0.95 [4]. Group 3: Volatility Analysis - The report includes historical volatility analysis and next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curves for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [12].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Aluminum, Palm oil, Soybean oil, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PE, PVC, LPG [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Iron ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Asphalt, Styrene, Alumina [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Natural gas, Crude oil, Bitumen, Shanghai rubber, Freight index [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, with low short - term domestic policy expectations and increasing overseas disturbances. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing upward movement [1]. - Geopolitical situations such as the Middle East situation and the Israel - Iran conflict have significant impacts on the prices of commodities like gold, crude oil, and chemical products [1]. - Supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and inventory levels are key factors affecting commodity prices. For example, supply - side production increases or decreases, changes in downstream demand, and inventory accumulation or depletion all play important roles [1]. 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Weak and oscillating, use options to hedge uncertainties [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Oscillating, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central - bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppressing upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a solid upward trend in the long - term, but beware of short - term risks of a sharp rise followed by a fall [1] - **Silver**: Oscillating [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of price correction after rising, as market risk preference is volatile and downstream demand is in the off - season [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong, with low inventory and risk of a short squeeze [1] - **Alumina**: Oscillating, with falling spot prices, weaker futures prices, and increased production from smelting putting pressure on the futures [1] - **Nickel**: Weak and oscillating in the short - term, with long - term oversupply pressure, suggest short - term range trading and selling - hedging on rebounds [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating at the bottom in the short - term, with long - term supply pressure, suggest short - term trading and industry players should pay attention to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Oscillating at a high level in the short - term, as supply contradictions intensify due to restrictions on tin - ore transportation [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: No upward price drivers during the transition from peak to off - season, with loose supply - demand and cost support [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating, with a possible increase in supply in June, loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oversupply pressure persists, with downward production due to profit pressure and weakening demand [1] - **Glass**: Weakening, as demand weakens during the off - season [1] - **Soda Ash**: Under pressure, with concerns about oversupply due to increased production and weak terminal demand [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, still suitable for short - selling [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, with falling prices following the decline in coking - coal costs [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short - term, as the US biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten global oil supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish, with similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Oscillating and weakening, affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and the off - season of the domestic cotton - spinning industry [1] - **Corn**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a bullish long - term trend due to expected tight supply - demand, suggest buying on dips [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Suggest waiting and seeing, and pay attention to the adjustment of US soybean and corn planting areas in the end - of - month report [1] - **Pulp**: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited, suggest waiting and seeing, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread is recommended [1] - **Logs**: With high positions near the delivery of the main contract and intense capital games, suggest waiting and seeing [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable, with sufficient supply expectations, but short - term spot prices are less affected by slaughter, and there may be support during the summer consumption peak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating, affected by the Middle East situation and the summer consumption peak [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating, with cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Oscillating, with the narrowing of the futures - spot price difference, falling raw - material prices, and significant inventory decline [1] - **BR Rubber**: Strong and oscillating in the short - term, supported by cost increases [1] - **PTA**: Bullish, with a strong spot basis due to the Israel - Iran conflict and potential impacts on production [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish, continuing to reduce inventory, with reduced arrivals and improved polyester sales [1] - **Short - fiber**: Bullish, with costs closely following raw - material prices and planned plant maintenance [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, with weakening prices due to reduced speculative demand and increased plant loads [1] - **PE**: Oscillating and strengthening, with price support from geopolitical factors and crude - oil price increases [1] - **PP**: Oscillating [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating and strengthening, with supply pressure and price support from crude - oil price increases [1] - **Aluminum Oxide Smelting**: Oscillating, with the market anticipating price cuts, and future trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Oscillating and strengthening, affected by geopolitical factors, suggest waiting and seeing [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Strong expectations but weak reality, suggest short - selling with caution during price - support periods, and light - position long - buying for peak - season contracts, also consider 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: June 19, 2025 [5] - Analyst: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] - Investment advisory number: Z0021177 [5] - Qualification number: F03101843 [5] - Data sources: Clarksons, Wind [5] Group 2: Shipping Index Data Freight Rate Index - **SCFI Composite Index**: Current value is 2088, previous value was 2240, a decline of 6.79% [5] - **CCFI Index**: Current value is 1243, previous value was 1155, an increase of 7.63% [5] - **SCFI - US West**: Current value is 4120, previous value was 5606, a decline of 26.51% [5] - **SCFIS - US West**: Current value is 2908, previous value was 2185, an increase of 33.08% [5] - **SCFI - US East**: Current value is 6745, previous value was 6939, a decline of 2.80% [5] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: Current value is 1844, previous value was 1667, an increase of 10.62% [5] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: Current value is 1697, previous value was 1623, an increase of 4.57% [5] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: Current value is 3190, previous value was 3302, a decline of 3.39% [5] Contract Data - **Contract Prices**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, the current values are 1901.8, 2038.0, 1416.1, 1611.0, 1431.5, 1240.4 respectively, with corresponding changes of -1.68%, 0.39%, 0.10%, -0.01%, -1.52%, -2.61% compared to the previous values [5] - **Contract Holdings**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, EC2604, the current holdings are 4668, 44501, 28998, 6225, 2901, 3682 respectively, with corresponding changes of -536, 843, -240, -107, -230, 122 compared to the previous values [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 spreads are 621.9, -194.9, 370.6 respectively, with corresponding changes of 6.6, 1.6, 33.1 compared to the previous values [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Spot Market - **Late - June Price Hike**: Leading airlines are considering price hikes in late June. For example, COSCO's offline quote is 4200, CMA's is 4250, ONE's is 3000, MSC plans to raise prices to 3900 (offline 3250), Maersk's opening price from Shanghai to London is 2800 (to Rotterdam is 2820), and HPL's is 3500 [10] - **Current Week's Freight Rates**: Spot freight rates have been rising this week. Quotes for European base ports in late June have reached $2,800 - 3,200 per 40 - foot container, and the upward trend is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. The increase in spot freight rates is expected to intensify logistics chain pressure in late June and drive up the booking rate of long - term contracts. Shipping companies are tightening the policy of releasing low - price contracts [10] - **Early - July Quotes**: MSK quotes 3400 for July, HPL quotes 4350, CMA quotes 4650, and ONE quotes 4000 [10] Futures Market - **Market Trend**: The market is in a volatile state [9] - **Influence of Geopolitical Conflicts**: Geopolitical conflicts, although having a limited direct impact on supply and demand, have triggered a chain reaction that has become an important driving force for the increase in container shipping market freight rates, such as the rise in marine fuel oil costs and insurance premiums. Airlines will take advantage of this to try to raise freight rates in July. The most important factor for the European route is that the full resumption time of alliance shipping companies has been further postponed, and the sentiment from August to December will be most positively affected [10] Group 4: Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank uses medium - and short - term liquidity management tools to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system. The transformation of the monetary policy framework is a gradual process and will be continuously evaluated and improved [4] - The LuJiaZui Forum focuses on the long - term development of the financial market, with limited short - term boost to the capital market. Domestic factors have weak driving force on stock indices, and overseas uncertainties remain. Stock indices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a - 0.06bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a 0.40bp change, GC001 at 1.63 with a - 7.00bp change, GC007 at 1.64 with a 2.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.63 with a - 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a - 10.00bp change, 1 - year treasury at 1.36 with a - 1.00bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.47 with a 0.25bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.64 with a 0.50bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 0.00 with a - 7.00bp change [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1563 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1640 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 77 billion yuan. This week, 8582 billion yuan of reverse repurchases are due, with 1193 billion and 2025 billion maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [3][4] 3.2 Stock Index Data - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.12% to 3875, the SSE 50 fell 0.15% to 2680, the CSI 500 fell 0.09% to 5746, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.10% to 6135. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 11911 billion yuan, a decrease of 161 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers [5] - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume increased 10.5% to 105667, and its open interest increased 0.2% to 238264; IH volume decreased 4.4% to 48430, and its open interest decreased 1.5% to 81317; IC volume increased 3.0% to 88945, and its open interest increased 0.4% to 219162; IM volume increased 4.6% to 188199, and its open interest decreased 2.4% to 321988 [5] - **Premium and Discount**: IF premium and discount rates were 13.05% for the current - month contract, 13.74% for the next - month contract, 7.43% for the current - quarter contract, and 5.22% for the next - quarter contract; similar data were provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts [7] 3.3 LuJiaZui Forum - The 2025 LuJiaZui Forum focused on promoting financial opening and enhancing the financial market's support for industries. It had limited short - term impact on the capital market, and expectations for further monetary policy easing and equity market rescue tools were not met [6]

世界500强投资企业 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0013700 2025/6/19 | | | --- | --- | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | 伦敦金现 伦敦银现 COMEX黄金 COMEX白银 AU2508 AG2508 AU (T+D) AG (T+D) 日期 内外盘金 | | | (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (元/克) (元/千克) (元/克) (元/千克) 银15点价 | | | 2025/6/18 格厨房 3381. 90 37.23 3400. 40 37. 32 785. 08 8864. 00 782. 02 9004. 00 | | | (本表数 2025/6/17 3384. 97 36. 45 3403. 10 36. 54 785. 08 8864. 00 781. 69 8833.00 | 据来源: | | wind) 涨跌幅 -0. 1% 2.1% -0. 1% 2.1% 0. 0% 0. 0% 0.0 ...

黑色金属数据日报 | 2025/06/19 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | < 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月18日 | 2978. 00 | 3100.00 | 670. 50 | 1403.00 | 815. 50 | | | 涨跌值 | 1.00 | 10.00 | 0. 00 | 15.00 | 5.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.03 7 | 0. 32 | 0.00 | 1.08 | 0.62 | | | 近月合约收盘价 (主力合约元/吨) | R ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the adjustment of the planting area of US soybeans and US corn in the planting area report at the end of the month. The tense situation in the Middle East, the rise of international crude oil, and the strong rise of soybean oil suppress the performance of the soybean meal futures market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - From June to August in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The purchase progress of ships is 100% in June, 95.9% in July, and 55.2% in August, but it is slow after September. The good rate of US soybeans has risen to 68%, and the weather in the production areas is suitable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [7][8]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September; the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal has significantly improved, and the downstream transactions have increased and the pick - up has improved [8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly and is still at a low level. The inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected, but it is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation in late June. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased slightly and is still at a low level [8]. Price and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the basis of spot prices, as well as the spread between different contracts [6][7]. Other Data - The report also includes data on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the CNF premium of soybeans, the profit of soybean crushing on the futures market, the inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the soybean crushing volume and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [7].

| | 锂云母 | ୧୨5 | | = 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 一 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 T. / Hch | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) ( | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1225 | | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 5660 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 6595 | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 30370 | | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 143120 | -180 | | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 114315 | -110 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 120705 | -170 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 変化值 | | | | | 电碳-工碳 | 1600 | | | | | 价差 | 电碳-主力合约 ...

ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF 客 服 热线 官 方 网 站 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 56. 00% 57.00% 1. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始術· t T325年演出 (群贝) 解日示52E= 舞想坝金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 ...