Report Summary 1. Market Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% to close at 3647.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.18%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 0.59%, the Wind All A rose 0.99%, the Wind A500 rose 0.63%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.71% [10]. - A - share trading volume reached 1.85 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 1.74 trillion yuan the previous day [10]. 2. Index Performance Details | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | Trading Volume (billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2789.8959 | 0.03 | 903.34 | 43.48 | | CSI 300 | 4122.5106 | 0.43 | 3606.86 | 190.44 | | CSI 1000 | 6943.9366 | 1.55 | 4011.63 | 260.97 | [4] 3. CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading | Index | Option Trading Volume (million contracts) | Call Option Volume | Put Option Volume | PCR | Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Call Option Open Interest | Put Option Open Interest | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 4.49 | 2.81 | 1.68 | 0.60 | 7.81 | 5.09 | 2.72 | 0.53 | | CSI 300 | 11.64 | 7.49 | 4.15 | 0.55 | 21.19 | 12.10 | 9.09 | 0.75 | | CSI 1000 | 32.18 | 18.10 | 14.08 | 0.78 | 29.47 | 13.65 | 15.82 | 1.16 | [4] 4. Volatility Analysis - The report includes historical volatility chains and next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [6][8][10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The shipping market is in a state of weak oscillation. The main reason is that Maersk's freight rate at the end of August dropped to 2200, a decrease of 400 from last week, exceeding market expectations. The spot freight rate has peaked, and the subsequent focus is on the decline slope until the end of October. The freight rate on the European route is under pressure, and it is expected to break through 2000 in September [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCEI) is currently at 1490, down 3.94% from the previous value of 1551; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1201, down 2.59% from 1233. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also showed significant declines [4]. - **Other Routes**: SCFIS - Northwest Europe is currently at 2235, down 2.70% from 2297; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2318, down 0.64% from 2333 [4]. Shipping Derivatives - **Contract Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling. For example, EC2506 rose 0.44% to 1497.1 from 1490.5 [4]. - **Open Interest**: Open interest for contracts such as EC2606, EC2508 also changed. For instance, EC2606 open interest decreased by 30 to 770 from 800 [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) also changed. For example, the 10 - 12 spread decreased by 17.2 to -341.2 from -324.0 [4]. Market News - **Policy and Geopolitics**: The US and China need to decide whether to extend the current tariff suspension agreement by August 12. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 [5]. - **Industry Developments**: South Korea plans to conduct pilot operations on the "Northern Sea Route" starting in 2026. Three Chinese small - market carriers will offer several voyages on this route in late summer 2025. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report shows that US imports in the last four months of 2025 will decline significantly year - on - year [5]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the October contract on rallies (take profit gradually as it has pulled back recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by Trump's signal of trade talks, the US market rose significantly. After a sharp emotional decline, the domestic market rebounded. It is expected that the overall impact on import costs will be limited under the offset of the rising US market. MO1 is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the results of the August supply - demand report this week and the subsequent import situation of Argentine soybean meal [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - This week, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 69%, still at a high level, and the weather in the production areas will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean pressure reduction in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current Sino - US trade policy [7]. Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The far - month trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly this week [7][8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [8]. Price and Spread - The report provides a large amount of data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures contracts in different regions, as well as the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the import soybean crushing profit and other price - related data [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Market liquidity remains abundant, A-share margin trading funds hit a new high, and stock index reactions to domestic and foreign disturbances are significantly dulled [5]. - Valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role as the ERP of CSI 300 is at a historical high (74.25% quantile) and Huijin supports liquidity [5]. - The current stock index futures discount advantage is still large. Strategically, it is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a 0.28bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a 1.53bp change, GC001 at 1.50 with a 31.50bp change, etc. [4] - **Bond Yields**: 1 - year treasury bond yield is 1.36 with a 0.29bp change, 5 - year at 1.56 with a 1.77bp change, 10 - year at 1.71 with a 2.31bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.27 with a 4.00bp change [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: CSI 300 rose 0.43% to 4122.5, SSE 50 rose 0.03% to 2789.9, CSI 500 rose 1.08% to 6391.8, and CSI 1000 rose 1.55% to 6943.9. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1827 billion yuan, an increase of 116.7 billion yuan from last Friday [4]. - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 104,750 with a 39.4% change, and its open interest was 264,743 with a 5.7% change; IH volume was 49,078 with a 24.4% change, and its open interest was 96,586 with a 7.6% change; IC volume was 93,503 with a 34.3% change, and its open interest was 223,884 with a 4.3% change; IM volume was 213,349 with a 35.4% change, and its open interest was 359,739 with a 7.6% change [4]. Futures Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 14.41%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 3.12% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium and discount rates are 4.89%, 0.17%, - 0.11%, and - 0.03% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium and discount rates are 33.63%, 13.61%, 10.86%, and 9.97% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium and discount rates are 24.10%, 12.50%, 11.33%, and 11.06% respectively [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Commodity sentiment has weakened, PTA basis has weakened and trading volume has declined. Domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, and PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The overall polyester inventory is not high, and the polyester load has dropped to 88% [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Spot Price and Closing Price - PTA spot price increased from 4670 to 4700, with a change of 30; MEG domestic price increased from 4465 to 4484, with a change of 19; PTA closing price increased from 4684 to 4706, with a change of 22; MEG closing price increased from 4384 to 4414, with a change of 30 [2] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Price - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6550; short fiber basis increased from 152 to 155, with a change of 3; 8 - 9 spread decreased from 32 to 28, with a change of 4; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, with a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5700; the spread between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber remained unchanged at 850; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5918 to 5929, with a change of 11; hot-filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5918 to 5929, with a change of 11; carbonated polyester bottle chip price increased from 6018 to 6029, with a change of 11; outer market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 775; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 429 to 408, with a change of -21.02 [2] Yarn Price and Processing Fee - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 3750; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price increased from 14860 to 14900, with a change of 40; polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1340 to 1325, with a change of -15.12; primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7060; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 371 to 339, with a change of -32.02; primary low-melting staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7330 [2] Operating Rate and Sales Ratio - Direct-spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, with a change of -0.01; polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 56.00% to 57.00%, with a change of 1.00%; polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) decreased from 65.00% to 66.00%, with a change of -0.01; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, with a change of -0.06 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating with improved trading volume. The policy may enter a vacuum period, and the impact of the Tangshan production - restriction policy is expected to be limited. Focus on the possible mismatch in the low - inventory environment. Steel prices are currently stable, with support from the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost and upward elasticity depending on market sentiment and demand strength [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, macro policies are mainly positive, and prices are on the strong side. Although the anti - involution policy expectation is uncertain, previous trading logic continues to support prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, but the high inventory still poses a challenge [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the impact of over - production inspection is ongoing, and the market is still betting on "anti - involution". The sixth round of coke price increase is yet to be confirmed. The coking coal supply is tightened, but the price faces upward pressure. The market is volatile, and light - position participation is recommended, with key time points to watch [6]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution sentiment is rising again. The direction of the black sector depends on coking coal. Iron ore supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" policy may have a trend - setting impact. The lower support for iron ore is still effective, and there may be an upward opportunity after adjustment [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (August 11)**: RB2601 closed at 3319 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan (1.10%); HC2601 at 3461 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan (1.20%); I2601 at 789 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (1.94%); J2601 at 1759.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.73%); JM2605 at 1285 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (2.39%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (August 11)**: RB2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (1.09%); HC2510 at 3465 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan (1.29%); I2509 at 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.82%); J2509 at 1681 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan (1.97%); JM2601 at 1256 yuan/ton, up 36.5 yuan (2.99%) [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: On August 11, RB2510 - 2601 spread was - 69 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 spread was 4 yuan, up 5 yuan. The basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM had different values and changes [1]. Steel Industry - **Price and Trading Volume**: On Monday, futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices followed suit. The trading volume of building materials trade increased to over 120,000 tons, and speculative demand improved [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Domestic policies may enter a vacuum period. The Tangshan production - restriction policy is mild, and its overall impact on production is expected to be limited [3]. - **Industry Reality**: Last week, hot - rolled coil supply and demand were both weak, while building materials showed strong supply and demand. Steel exports are still at a high level, but the marginal weakening is observed [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Unilaterally, focus on the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost support; for arbitrage, do long on the 01 hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; there are partial profit - taking opportunities for basis, and conduct rolling operations in the spot - futures market [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: Macro policies are positive, and demand - side factors support prices. The anti - involution policy has an impact on supply and cost. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, but high inventory remains a problem [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The sixth - round coke price increase is yet to be confirmed. Coking coal supply is tightened due to production inspection and natural factors. The market is betting on "anti - involution", but the price faces upward pressure as downstream acceptance of high - priced resources decreases [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The black sector is oscillating, and the direction depends on coking coal. Iron ore supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" policy may have a significant impact. The lower support for iron ore is effective, and there may be an upward opportunity after adjustment [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Consider doing long on the 9 - 1 spread as it has shrunk to a historically low level [6].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 市 市 fat 官 方 网 站 品 有 服 热线 1.40 150. 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn tin No 入 IUI ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/8/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 (美元/盎司) | 伦敦银现 (美元/盎司) | COMEX黄金 (美元/登司) | COMEX日银 (美元/盎司) | AU2510 (元/克) | AG2510 (元/千克) | AU (T+D) (元/克) | AG (T+D) (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/8/11 | 3365. 31 | 38. 05 | 3425. 30 | 38. ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - oscillating state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Categories Price Indicators - **Coal Prices**: The price of Jincheng anthracite remained at 900.00, and Inner Mongolia thermal coal stayed at 630.00 from August 8th to 11th, 2025 [1]. - **Liquefied Gas and Natural Gas Prices**: Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas dropped from 4330.00 to 4130.00, and international natural gas decreased from 11.07 to 10.86 during the same period [1]. - **Methanol Prices**: Most methanol prices remained stable, with only minor fluctuations in some regions. For example, the price in Shandong decreased from 2310.00 to 2300.00, and the price in Taicang dropped from 2375.00 to 2365.00 [1]. - **Associated Product Prices**: MTBE price decreased from 5130.00 to 5030.00, while the prices of other associated products such as acetic acid and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. Supply - **Domestic Production**: Domestic methanol production decreased from 264005.00 to 263205.00, and domestic methanol operating rate dropped from 81.73 to 81.48. International operating rate remained at 71.67 [1]. - **Imports**: The arrival volume remained at 29.54 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 324520.00 and 808400.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained at 230725.00 [1]. Operating Rates of Downstream Products - The operating rates of most downstream products such as MTO, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde remained unchanged [1].

Group 1: Paper Pulp Price Data - SP2601 futures price was 5472, with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 1.41% [1] - SP2605 futures price was 5452, with a daily decrease of 0.70% and a weekly decrease of 1.17% [1] - SP2509 futures price was 5202, with a daily increase of 0.77% and a weekly increase of 0.66% [1] - Spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, with no daily or weekly change [1] - Spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5250, with a daily and weekly increase of 1.35% [1] - Spot price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, with a daily increase of 1.72% and a weekly increase of 0.73% [1] - Chilean Silver Star's foreign - market quotation was 720, a monthly decrease of 2.70% [1] - Brazilian Goldfish's foreign - market quotation was 510, a monthly increase of 4.08% [1] - Chilean Venus's foreign - market quotation was 620, with no monthly change [1] Group 2: Paper Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a monthly decrease of 6.09% compared to May [1] - The shipment volume of paper pulp to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, a monthly increase of 3.30% compared to April [1] - The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp had certain fluctuations [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for paper pulp [2] Inventory - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China was 204.8 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period, with a monthly decrease of 2.7% [2] Group 3: Paper Pulp Valuation Data - On August 11, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 48, with a quantile level of 0.796; the Silver Star basis was 648, with a quantile level of 0.89 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.546; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 32, with a quantile level of 0.61 [1] Group 4: Market News Supply - side - Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase for the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity paper - pulp output in the next 12 - month operating cycle will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity [1] - Asia Symbol announced a 150 - yuan/ton increase in the order - receiving price of broad - leaf pulp, only supplying long - term contract customers [1] Strategy - Paper - pulp futures are expected to run strongly [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - The current sugar market shows a pattern of "strong international and weak domestic". International sugar prices are dominated by Brazil's production increase and crude oil fluctuations, while the domestic market faces dual pressures of processed sugar impact and weak demand. In the long - term, with a global surplus, the upside space for sugar prices is limited, and an interval - oscillation approach is recommended. In August, key factors to watch include Brazil's crushing progress, import arrival rhythm, and policy regulation intensity [4]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Sugar Price Data - On August 11, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions were as follows: 6010 yuan/ton in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi; 5825 yuan/ton in Kunming; 5700 yuan/ton in Dali, Yunnan; and 6090 yuan/ton in Rizhao, Shandong. The prices in all these regions had no change compared to the previous day [4]. - The futures prices were: SR09 at 5678 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), SR01 at 5573 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spread SR09 - 01 was 105 yuan (down 2 yuan) [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rates on August 11, 2025, were: RMB/USD at 7.2015 (up 0.0010), Brazilian Real/RMB at 1.2818 (up 0.0212), and Indian Rupee/RMB at 0.084 (down 0.0004) [4]. - The prices of international commodities were: ICE raw sugar main contract at 16.27 (unchanged), London white sugar main contract at 573 (up 3), and Brent crude oil main contract at 66.32 (unchanged) [4].