1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices may fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Israel - Iran situation and tariff policies, and the market will face a super - week of central banks including the Fed, which may increase market volatility. Silver prices were supported by the Israel - Iran conflict boosting oil prices, but it's difficult to rise significantly again after the previous sharp increase [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the downward risk of the US economy, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metals Prices**: On June 16, 2025, London gold spot was at $3415.20/ounce, London silver spot at $36.38/ounce, COMEX gold at $3434.80/ounce, COMEX silver at $36.48/ounce, AU2508 at 792.30 yuan/gram, AG2508 at 8858 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) at 788.66 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 8831 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, gold prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while silver prices rose, with increases of 0.8% for London silver spot, COMEX silver, and AG2508, and 0.6% for AG (T + D) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On June 16, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.64 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 27 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 0.41 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 583 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 89.44, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 94.16, AU2512 - 2508 was 3.74 yuan/gram, and AG2512 - 2508 was 31 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, the price spreads and ratios showed various changes, with the largest increase of 58.8% in the silver TD - SHFE active price spread and the largest decrease of 86.5% in the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of June 13, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 940.49 tons, up 0.28% from June 12; the silver ETF - SLV was 14675.3622 tons, down 0.36%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 245995 contracts, down 0.40%; the non - commercial short positions were 58514 contracts, down 0.95%; the non - commercial net long positions were 187481 contracts, down 0.23%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 85192 contracts, up 3.92%; the non - commercial short positions were 18542 contracts, down 12.58%; the non - commercial net long positions were 66650 contracts, up 9.68% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On June 16, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 18177 kg, unchanged from June 13; the SHFE silver inventory was 1194931 kg, down 1.25%. As of June 13, the COMEX gold inventory was 37789752 ounces, unchanged from June 12; the COMEX silver inventory was 498460011 ounces, up 0.05% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Markets - On June 16, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 7.18, the US dollar index was 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.96, the VIX was 4.41, the S&P 500 was 5976.97, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 73.18, and NYMEX crude oil was not clearly stated. Compared with June 13, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.02%, the US dollar index rose 0.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.54%, the VIX rose 1.15%, the S&P 500 fell 1.13%, and NYMEX crude oil rose 6.27% [4]. 3.5 Important News - Geopolitical: The conflict between Iran and Israel continues. The Israeli Prime Minister said that Israel is willing to stop the action if Iran accepts the US demand to abandon the nuclear program. Trump and the US are not currently involved in Israel's military strike against Iran but may be involved in the future [4]. - Economic Data: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in June was 60.5, the first improvement in 6 months. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation was 5.1%, and the preliminary value of the five - to ten - year inflation rate expectation was 4.1% [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, it is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. The polyester downstream load remains at 91.3% despite the expectation of a reduction, and the actual polyester output has reached a new high. PTA will go through a destocking process, and the spot is becoming tight. For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, it will continue to destock, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil rose from 529.9 yuan/barrel on June 13, 2025, to 541.6 yuan/barrel on June 16, an increase of 11.7 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 931.2 yuan/ton to 830.1 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.2418 to 1.2109. The PTA main contract futures price fell from 4782 yuan/ton to 4766 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped slightly from 5010 yuan/ton to 5005 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 382.6 yuan/ton to 311.5 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased from 154.6 yuan/ton to 72.5 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1002 to 84853 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price rose from 4334 yuan/ton to 4374 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (135.61) yuan/ton to (131.80) yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price rose from 4400 yuan/ton to 4426 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 854 to 866, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 234 to 246. The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices all increased, with cash flows turning positive. The long - filament sales rate dropped from 447% to 30% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 6665 to 6690, and the cash flow increased from 7 to 28. The short - fiber sales rate dropped from 105% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price rose from 5925 to 5960, and the chip cash flow increased from (183) to (152). The chip sales rate dropped from 257% to 40% [2]. 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07%, the PTA operating rate decreased from 83.56% to 81.57%, the MEG operating rate increased from 54.40% to 56.16%, and the polyester load increased slightly from 89.64% to 89.74% [2]. 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Bearish investment view, suggesting that investors can buy put options at high prices [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish investment view, recommending buying put options at high prices [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass and soda ash remain weak, with prices reaching low levels and high price elasticity. The downstream terminal demand has entered the off - season, leading to weak supply and demand for glass. The continuous decline in raw fuel prices has weakened cost support, putting pressure on prices. The supply - demand surplus contradiction of soda ash has intensified again. After the end of maintenance, the resumption of production has accelerated, highlighting the pressure of supply surplus. Although the direct demand is okay, the downstream negative feedback pressure has increased significantly, and cost support has weakened, also putting pressure on prices [39] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. This week, the daily output of national float glass was 155,700 tons, a 0.7% decrease from 5 days ago. The industry's start - up rate was 75.42%, a 0.25 - percentage - point decrease from 5 days ago, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, a 0.66 - percentage - point decrease from 5 days ago. Two production lines were shut down and two were ignited this week, with no glass output from the ignited lines. Next week, one previously ignited line may start producing glass, and another line may be shut down, with overall output remaining stable [3] - Demand: Bearish. The demand outlook has weakened, the off - season has arrived, and demand has declined marginally. The pressure for stable growth is high, the mid - term real estate downturn is difficult to reverse, the year - on - year decline in completion data continues, and there are still concerns about future demand [3] - Inventory: Neutral. The inventory has slightly decreased. The enterprise inventory is 69.685 million heavy cases, a 69,000 - heavy - case (0.10%) decrease from the previous period, and a 19.86% increase year - on - year. The inventory days are 30.8 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous period [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis remained stable this week, and the 09 - 01 spread fluctuated [3] - Valuation: Neutral. The current price is at a relatively low level, but cost support has weakened [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Sino - US negotiations are continuing, and the pressure for domestic stable growth is high [3] - Investment View: Bearish. Weak supply and demand are putting pressure on prices [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy put options at high prices; Arbitrage: None [3] Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. Supply has increased. This week, the soda ash output was 740,100 tons, a 36,000 - ton (5.12%) increase from the previous week. Among them, the light soda ash output was 334,300 tons, a 12,400 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash output was 405,800 tons, a 23,600 - ton increase. Recently, equipment operation has been relatively stable, with few maintenance enterprises. Previously maintained enterprises have gradually resumed production, and overall supply is expected to increase [4] - Demand: Bearish. Demand has remained stable. The demand from float and photovoltaic industries has been stable, but the terminal demand is not ideal, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with a sharp increase in negative feedback pressure [4] - Inventory: Bearish. The inventory has increased. The total manufacturer inventory is 1.6863 million tons, a 59,300 - ton (3.64%) increase from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 811,300 tons, a 21,300 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 875,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. The inventory shows an increasing trend, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis fluctuated this week, and the 09 - 01 spread remained stable [4] - Valuation: Neutral. The current price has moved down, but cost support has weakened. The cost of the combined soda process is about 1,200 yuan/ton, the ammonia - soda process is about 1,260 yuan/ton, and the natural soda process is about 1,000 yuan/ton [4] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Sino - US negotiations are continuing, and the pressure for domestic stable growth is high [4] - Investment View: Bearish. Supply has recovered, and the surplus pressure is gradually increasing [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy put options at high prices; Arbitrage: None [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price declined. The main contract closed at 976 (- 21), and the Shahe spot price was 1048 (- 8) [6] Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated downward. The main contract closed at 1156 (- 56), and the Shahe spot price was 1220 (- 23) [11] Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 09 - 01 spread and the basis fluctuated [22] - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread and the basis fluctuated [22] 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Generally stable. Production has decreased. With the continuous decline in spot prices, glass production profits have decreased. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 182.83 yuan/ton, a 12.15 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week; that using coal - made gas was 80.72 yuan/ton, a 10.24 - yuan/ton decrease; and that using petroleum coke was - 128.47 yuan/ton, a 17.14 - yuan/ton decrease [26] - Demand: Weak. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises are 10.4 days, a 0.5% increase from the previous period and a 7.2% decrease year - on - year. The mid - and back - end completion data of the real estate industry is poor. From January to April, the construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, a 9.7% year - on - year decrease; the new construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a 23.8% decrease; and the completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a 16.9% decrease [27][28] - Inventory: Slightly decreased. The enterprise inventory is 69.685 million heavy cases, a 69,000 - heavy - case (0.10%) decrease from the previous period, and a 19.86% increase year - on - year. The inventory days are 30.8 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous period [29] Soda Ash - Supply: Production is gradually recovering. Supply has increased. The profit of soda ash plants has decreased. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process is 20.70 yuan/ton, a 29.20 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the combined soda process (double - ton) is 139.50 yuan/ton, a 38.50 - yuan/ton decrease [33] - Demand: The direct demand is okay, but the negative feedback pressure is high. The demand from float and photovoltaic industries is stable, but the terminal demand is not ideal, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The inventory has increased [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector showed a pattern of rising and then falling due to the decline in risk appetite. The copper market is affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, raw material supply, and demand. The zinc market is expected to be weak in the short - term with a supply increase in June. The nickel and stainless - steel market is in a weak and volatile state, influenced by geopolitical risks, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics [1][93][209] - For copper, due to the complex macro - environment and changes in the supply - demand relationship in the industrial chain, the copper price has a risk of falling from high levels. For zinc, considering the supply recovery in June and the weakening demand, the zinc price is expected to decline, and short - selling is recommended. For nickel and stainless - steel, affected by geopolitical risks and policy changes, the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [9][93][209] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and the prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. It also provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations had a general market response. The domestic social financing and credit data improved slightly in May, but the demand - side expectations need to be further improved. The US inflation continued to decline, but the expectation of interest - rate cuts did not rise significantly [9] - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreased slightly, and the copper ore supply remained tight. The domestic copper ore port inventory increased. The production plan of Kamoa - Kakula Copper Mine was reduced due to the flooding incident [9] - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore remained around 2950 yuan/ton, while those using long - term contracts turned from near - break - even to a profit of 40 yuan/ton. The domestic copper production in May increased and is expected to remain high in June [9] - **Demand End**: With the arrival of the off - season in May and the high copper price, the domestic copper product operating rate declined slightly [9] - **Inventory**: The domestic copper social inventory decreased slightly, the US copper inventory increased, and the LME copper inventory decreased. The global visible copper inventory decreased slightly [9] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to be weak and volatile. The macro - market sentiment is complex, and the industrial support is weakening, so there is a risk of the copper price falling from high levels [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level volatility for single - side trading and positive spread arbitrage for Shanghai copper. Attention should be paid to the US tariff policy, copper inventory, and the mid - year negotiation of copper ore processing fees [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The Middle - East conflict escalated, and the US inflation data cooled down, increasing the expectation of two interest - rate cuts by the Fed this year [93] - **Raw Material End**: The domestic processing fee remained unchanged, and the import processing fee increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory decreased, but the raw material supply is expected to be stable and abundant in the future [93] - **Smelting End**: Some previously shut - down smelters in Henan resumed production last week, and more are expected to resume in June. The production is expected to increase by more than 20,000 tons in June but may decline in July due to some planned shutdowns. The inflow of imported goods has an impact on the spot premium [93] - **Demand End**: The off - season and high - temperature weather in the South have suppressed terminal demand. The export demand is uncertain due to tariff disturbances [93] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased again. As of June 12, it was 7.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from last Thursday. The inventory turning point may become clear in mid - to late June [93] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to decline, and short - selling is recommended [93] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - selling for single - side trading and waiting for opportunities for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to macro - risks and the uncertainty of smelter shutdowns [93] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: The Israel - Iran conflict intensified, increasing market risk aversion. The US announced tariffs on steel - made household appliances, which may affect the terminal demand for nickel and stainless steel. The domestic social financing growth in May was stable, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [209] - **Raw Material End**: The Philippines removed the ban on nickel ore exports, which weakened the market sentiment in the short - term. The Indonesian nickel ore premium remained stable, but the demand for nickel ore procurement may weaken due to the increase in the average inventory of pyrometallurgical smelters. The domestic port inventory decreased slightly due to the impact of rainfall in the Philippines [209] - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel decreased slightly in May. The price of nickel iron decreased, and the supply pressure remained. The MHP coefficient was stable, but some nickel sulfate enterprises still have the expectation of production cuts. In the long - term, the new production capacity of primary nickel in Indonesia is expected to continue to be released [209] - **Demand End**: The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, with weak spot transactions. The production of some steel mills is expected to decrease slightly in June. The new - energy vehicle production and sales remained high, but the raw material inventory of precursors has accumulated [209] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory was 197,500 tons (- 1.3%), and the SHFE nickel inventory was 25,600 tons (+ 0.3%) [209] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. In the long - term, there is still pressure of oversupply for primary nickel. Attention should be paid to the cost range of electrowinning nickel and resource - country policies [209] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term short - selling for single - side trading and waiting for opportunities for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to nickel - related policies in resource - rich countries and global macro - disturbances [209]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-16 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 01 螺纹钢 02 焦煤焦炭 震 荡 区 间 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 盘 面 震 荡 运 行 ， 现 货 延 续 弱 势 03 铁矿石 宏 观 局 势 推 动 短 期 波 动 加 剧 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢：震荡区间，等待新驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 铁水产量延续小幅回落的方向，幅度依旧比较弱，但本周钢联五材产量数据降得比较多，主要是电炉产量下降贡献比较大，主要原因还是在于长流 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 程钢厂尚可 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rebound, with most industrial products rising and agricultural products soaring. The main reasons were the large - scale conflict between Israel and Iran, the improvement of the Sino - US framework agreement, the resilience of the Chinese economy, and the lower - than - expected US inflation boosting the interest - rate cut expectation, which improved market risk appetite [3]. - Multiple factors may cause the commodity market to continue to rebound in the short term, including the Sino - US framework agreement, the improvement of the US economic outlook and the decline of inflation expectations, and the deterioration of the Middle - East situation [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Overseas Situation Analysis - **Sino - US London Consultation Reached a Principle Agreement**: From June 9 - 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a principle agreement on implementing the consensus of the heads - of - state call and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. China's exports may still have a window period for "rush exports" before July, but the export growth rate may decline in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **US: May CPI Lower than Market Expectations**: In May, the overall CPI in the US rose 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year and rose only 0.1% month - on - month, for the fourth consecutive month lower than expected. After the data was released, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates before September jumped to 75%, and the annual interest - rate cut expectation remained at about 45 basis points. It is believed that the probability of a soft landing of the US economy in recent years is still large, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the fourth quarter [10]. - **US: Confidence Index Rebounded and Inflation Expectation Declined**: In June, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 60.5, a month - on - month increase of 15.9%. The 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 5.1% from 6.6%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation slightly decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%. The suspension of tariffs and the decline of inflation expectations drove the confidence to rebound, but there are still concerns in the future [13]. - **Middle - East Situation Escalated**: On the early morning of June 13, Israel launched an attack on Iran. Iran launched a series of retaliatory actions. The global economy was shaken, with the Brent crude oil price soaring 8% to $94 per barrel, the global stock markets falling generally, and the gold price breaking through $3400 per ounce [16]. Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data: Mixed Results**: In June, the new social financing was 228.94 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.1%. M2 increased 7.9% year - on - year, and M1 increased 2.3%. Overall, the government sector was still the main force of entity - sector financing. The central bank's actions to guide monetary easing and the expectation of restarting treasury bond trading may bring a favorable environment to the capital market [21]. - **Foreign Trade Data Interpretation: Exports Maintained Short - term Resilience**: In May, exports increased 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year. The decline in exports was affected by the weakening of "rush exports" and the high base, and the decline in imports was dragged down by the decline in commodity imports. In the short term, exports are expected to maintain a certain resilience, but there will be pressure in the second half of the year [24]. - **Policy Tracking**: The release of the "Opinions on Further Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihood" may bring development opportunities to multiple fields such as consumption and elderly care. The acceleration of the "one - old - and - one - young" policy may bring development opportunities to multiple industries, including the maternal and infant consumption, elderly care service, and related equipment industries [25]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production End: Industrial Production was Generally Stable**: In the chemical industry, the production load remained stable, and product prices declined. In the steel industry, production declined slightly, and demand slowed down [34]. - **Demand End: Real - Estate Sales Increased Week - on - Week and Passenger - Car Retail Sales Increased Year - on - Year**: As of June 12, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities increased 43.96% week - on - week. In the first week of June, the average daily retail sales of the national passenger - car market were 43,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 19% [41]. - **Price Trends**: As of June 13, most food prices fell this week. The average vegetable price decreased 0.05% month - on - month, the average pork price decreased 1.48% month - on - month, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased 0.25% month - on - month, and the fruit price decreased 2.01% month - on - month [42].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend judgments for various commodities, including "bullish", "bearish", "sideways", etc. for specific products. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: Domestic factors have weak driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the probability of stock indices breaking upward is low without significant positive news. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank [1]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, silver prices are expected to enter a weak sideways trend; copper prices may correct after rising; aluminum prices remain strong due to inventory decline; zinc prices are pressured by inventory increase, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - financial** - **Stock indices**: Domestic factors are weak, overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. Without significant positive news, the probability of upward breakthrough is low. It is recommended to wait and see, being vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank, suppressing the upward movement. In the short - term, they may move sideways, while the long - term upward logic is still solid [1]. **Non - ferrous metals** - **Silver**: Expected to enter a weak sideways trend in the short - term [1]. - **Copper**: After the price rises, there is a risk of correction due to the decline in market risk appetite [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, increasing the risk of a short squeeze, and the price remains strong [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while the futures price is weak, with a significant futures discount. The profit of the smelting end is okay, and the increase in production pressures the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price. The downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability of social inventory on Thursday. Buyers can enter the market at an appropriate time [1]. - **Nickel**: The removal of the nickel ore export ban in the Philippines suppresses market sentiment. The nickel price is in a weak sideways trend in the short - term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The spot trading is weak, and social inventory slightly increases. In the short - term, the futures are in a weak sideways trend, and there is still supply pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to be affected by the Thai ban, and the short - term price is in a high - level sideways trend [1]. **Industrial metals** - **Industrial silicon**: The supply side shows an improvement trend, the demand side remains low without improvement, and the inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The mine - end price continues to decline, and downstream raw material inventory is high, with inactive purchases [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: In the window period from peak season to off - season, the cost is loose, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with no upward driving force observed [1]. - **Iron ore**: There is an expectation that iron - making water has reached its peak, and there will be an increase in supply in June. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure on steel [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and okay demand, but there is heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon iron**: The cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply - demand surplus [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, the off - season is coming, demand is weakening, and the price continues to be weak [1]. - **Soda ash**: Maintenance is gradually restored, direct demand is okay, but there are concerns about supply surplus, and terminal demand is weak, pressuring the price [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The spot prices continue to weaken. Against the background of a high basis, the futures rebound to repair the discount. It is still possible to short - sell coking coal, and coke prices decline synchronously with the decrease in the cost of coal for furnace entry [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: According to the May report of MPOB, if there are unexpected data, there may be a gap - opening market at the opening of the afternoon session. There is a game between weak fundamentals and the fluctuations of other oils [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, there is a lack of key negative driving forces, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the rebound of the futures [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are still strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The annual supply - demand is expected to be tight, the wheat price stabilizes under the purchasing - support policy, and the corn price is expected to be sideways in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The center of the futures price is lifted by the expectation of de - stocking in the fourth quarter and the slow inventory accumulation. However, with the continuous progress of ship purchases, if the weather is normal, the increase of M09 is expected to be limited, and it will generally remain sideways [1]. - **Pulp**: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: The supply is abundant, the demand is light, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures are at a large discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short - term, and the futures remain stable overall [1]. **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: The Sino - US Geneva negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and the summer consumption peak may provide support [1]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side drags down, the inventory returns to normal with a reduced accumulation slope, and the demand is slowly recovering. The end of the 14th Five - Year Plan this year is promising for the downstream [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support weakens as the price of butadiene is reduced. In the short - term, high inventory and weak demand continue, and the price is expected to decline sideways due to the fall in raw material prices. In the long - term, pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has been alleviated to some extent, and the short - fiber cost is closely related to it. Short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol expands due to the fall in coal prices. It continues to de - stock, and the arrival volume will decrease. The polyester production cut has an impact, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: The basis difference between futures and spot returns fully, the cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases significantly [1]. - **PE**: There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price moves sideways with a slight upward trend [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new plants are put into operation, and the downstream enters the seasonal off - season. Supply pressure increases, and the price moves sideways with a downward trend. Pay attention to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [1]. - **LPG**: The supply increases, port inventory is high, and the demand in the combustion off - season suppresses the price. Chemical demand has no significant increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling high and buying low from mid - June to the end of the month [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping (European routes)**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling during the price - holding period. As the futures start to show a safety margin, it is possible to lightly go long on the peak - season contracts. Pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread, 8 - 10 and 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overall, with no significant abnormalities in the weather in US soybean - producing areas and a slight decline in Brazilian premiums, the decline is expected to be limited under the unchanged Sino - US trade policy. Under the current Sino - US policy, there is a de - stocking expectation in the fourth quarter, which supports the center of the soybean meal futures price to rise. The domestic demand improvement supports the soybean meal, which is currently accumulating inventory at a slow pace but is expected to accelerate later. With the progress of purchasing ships, the expected increase of M09 is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in May, June, and July is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current purchase progress is 94.4% for June, 80.6% for July, and 33.8% for August. The planting progress of US soybeans is relatively fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for the early growth of soybeans [3]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to gradually increase before September, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and the downstream transactions have increased and the pick - up has improved [3]. Inventory - As of last week, the domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal is also accumulating inventory, but the current inventory is still at a low level. With the significant recovery of the crushing rate, it is expected that the soybean meal inventory will accelerate in late June [3]. Data - The report provides data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot basis, spread data (such as M9 - RM9), CNF premium of imported soybeans, exchange rate of US dollars to RMB, inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean and soybean meal, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and the crushing volume and startup rate of national major oil mills [1][2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices returned to weakness after touching the 20 - day moving average on Thursday, with both spot volume and price falling. After basis repair, prices may face pressure again if there is no better bullish story in the industry. For hot - rolled coils and rebar, pay attention to the 20 - day moving average on the disk as the resistance level and the re - entry hedging point range [5]. - The Sino - US talks disturbed market sentiment. Coking coal spot continued to weaken, with many auctions failing and the cost of coking coal decreasing. The futures market of coking coal and coke weakened due to the less - than - expected Sino - US negotiation results. Macro uncertainties are large, and the market has no stable expectation. In the industry, the demand for five major steel products is seasonally weakening, and the coking coal supply may increase in the future [6]. - For steel, focus on short - side trading. Prefer hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging. Buy put options on steel at high prices [8]. - For coking coal and coke, based on the judgment that the medium - to - long - term bottom of coking coal has not been found, continue to take a bearish view on the single - side trading [9]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. The prices of both are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tenders [9]. - For iron ore, the trend remains unchanged, and a high - short strategy should be maintained. The decline in the output of five major steel products did not lead to inventory accumulation. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise to a high level, and the market should consider the changes in inventory after the peak season and the stability of steel exports [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On June 12, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2962 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.67%); HC2601 at 3079 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 0.71%); I2601 at 671 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.07%); J2601 at 1348 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 1.46%); JM2601 at 779 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan (- 1.95%). - For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2968 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.70%); HC2510 at 3080 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.87%); I2509 at 704 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan (- 0.21%); J2509 at 1328.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (- 1.77%); JM2509 at 766.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 2.79%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: - On June 12, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 6 yuan/ton, unchanged; between HC2510 and HC2601 was 1 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The coil - to - rebar spread was 112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.22, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.73, unchanged; the rebar disk profit was 184.4 yuan/ton, down 4.3 yuan; the coking disk profit was 309.06 yuan/ton, down 4.89 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Steel: On June 12, Shanghai rebar was 3070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2890 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal prices continued to weaken, with many auctions failing. The price index of coking coal was 951.7, down 6.1. Port - traded quasi - first - class coke was quoted at 1180 yuan/ton. For Mongolian coal, prices were under pressure, with downstream buyers having strong price - cutting intentions [6]. Different Product Analysis - **Steel**: After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again. For trading, focus on short - side trading, and prefer hot - rolled coils for hedging. Buy put options on steel at high prices [5][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The Sino - US talks disturbed market sentiment. Spot coking coal weakened, and the futures market also showed weakness. Continue to take a bearish view on the single - side trading based on the judgment that the medium - to - long - term bottom of coking coal has not been found [6][9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. Prices are expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weakening demand, approaching off - season, and decreasing costs [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The trend remains unchanged, and a high - short strategy should be maintained. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise, and pay attention to inventory changes and steel export stability [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - On June 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.04% to 785.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.88% to 8819 yuan/kg [2]. - In the short - term, due to the warming of Middle - East geopolitics, uncertainties in tariffs and fees, better - than - expected data in the US in June, and the cooling of core PPI in May, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in August has increased, the US dollar index has fallen below 100 again, which boosts the rebound of gold prices. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level range - bound in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term upward view remains unchanged. For silver, the repair of the gold - silver ratio is basically established, and the silver price is expected to return to the macro + fundamental logic, with a risk of further weakening in the short - term [2]. - In the medium - and long - term, the background of the trade war still exists, the US economy still faces downward risks, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With the intensification of great - power games and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold purchases continue, and the monetary attribute of gold is constantly strengthened. The medium - and long - term upward trend has not changed. The strategy is to continue to allocate more on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On June 12, 2025, London gold spot was 3373.58 dollars/ounce, up 1.1% from June 11; London silver spot was 36.25 dollars/ounce, down 0.9%; COMEX gold was 3393.80 dollars/ounce, up 1.1%; COMEX silver was 36.38 dollars/ounce, down 1.0%. AU2508 was 785.16 yuan/gram, up 1.0%; AG2508 was 8819 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; AU (T + D) was 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.9%; AG (T + D) was 8798 yuan/kg, down 1.0% [2]. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On June 12, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.46 yuan/gram, up 10.5% from June 11; the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 21 yuan/kg, up 50.0%; the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.90 yuan/gram, down 26.7%; the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 89.03, up 1.9%; the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 93.30, up 2.1%; AU2512 - 2508 was 3.72 yuan/gram, down 1.1%; AG2512 - 2508 was 34 yuan/kg, down 12.8% [2]. Position Data - As of June 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 934.19 tons, down 0.18% from June 10; the silver ETF - SLV was 14729.07854 tons, up 0.27%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 246982 contracts, up 5.51%; the non - commercial short position was 59077 contracts, down 1.38%; the non - commercial net long position was 187905 contracts, up 7.88%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 81981 contracts, up 11.93%; the non - commercial short position was 21211 contracts, up 4.86%; the non - commercial net long position was 60770 contracts, up 14.63% [2]. Inventory Data - On June 12, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17847.00 kg, up 0.17% from June 11; the SHFE silver inventory was 1226150.00 kg, down 0.30%. On June 11, the COMEX gold inventory was 37929466 troy ounces, with a 0.00% change from June 10; the COMEX silver inventory was 497946180 troy ounces, up 0.56% [2]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On June 12, 2025, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.18, down 0.02% from June 11. On June 11, the US dollar index was 98.65, down 0.41% from June 10; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.94%, down 1.75%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 1.34%; the VIX was 17.26, up 1.83%; the S&P 500 was 6022.24, down 0.27%; the NYMEX crude oil was 68.30 dollars/barrel, up 5.50% [2]. Economic Data - The US May PPI was up 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 2.4%. The US May core PPI was up 3.0% year - on - year, the lowest since August 2024, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%. Month - on - month, the May PPI rose only 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the core PPI also rose only 0.1%, with commodity prices (excluding food and energy) up 0.2% and service prices up 0.1% [2]. - The UK April GDP contracted 0.3% month - on - month, the first contraction in six months, worse than the expected 0.1% contraction, and the previous value was a 0.2% increase [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week ending June 7 was 248,000, rising to the highest level since the end of 2021, higher than the expected 242,000, and the previous value was 247,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending June 3 was 1.956 million, higher than the expected 1.91 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.904 million to 1.902 million [2].