1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the natural rubber industry is bearish. The industry may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term due to factors such as improving weather in production areas leading to increased supply, slightly decreasing mid - stream inventory, and narrow - fluctuating downstream operating rates, along with changeable sentiment in the commodity market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market currently lacks a clear driving force and is in a weak and volatile state. The supply in production areas is gradually increasing as the weather improves, the mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream tire production capacity utilization rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The overall commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious trading logic in the short - term [3][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply situation varies in different regions. In China, Yunnan's supply decreased slightly due to rainfall, while Hainan's supply increased but was still below the seasonal average. In Thailand, the supply increased significantly, putting pressure on raw material prices. In Vietnam, the supply increased steadily seasonally, and the glue price was firm. Overall, the supply factor is bearish [3]. - **Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next period. The demand factor is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.4% to 128.9 million tons. The inventory factor is neutral [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR main contract spread both widened this week. The basis factor is neutral [3]. - **Profit**: The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 decreased, the theoretical production profit of Hainan domestic state - owned concentrated latex increased, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex improved. The profit factor is neutral [3]. - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still relatively high. The valuation factor is bearish [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: There are disturbances from the state reserve dumping policy and domestic macro - policy sentiment. The macro and policy factor is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: Due to the improving weather in production areas, the upstream supply is gradually increasing. The mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream operating rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious logic. It may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, the long - RU2601 short - RU2509 arbitrage should gradually take profit around 1000 [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: This week, natural rubber futures fluctuated weakly. As of August 8, the RU main contract closed at 14,575 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan/ton (+2.85%) for the week, and the 20 - day rubber main contract closed at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton (+2.00%) for the week [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded. The RU2509 contract accelerated the position transfer, and the total position of RU + NR continued to decline. The RU - NR spread rebounded, and there may be reverse arbitrage opportunities [9][17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: The precipitation in production areas has decreased, which is conducive to the increase in rubber supply [40]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73]. - **China's Imports**: From January to June, China imported 3.1257 million tons of natural rubber (+26.47%). In July 2025, China imported a total of 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 4.709 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.8% [86][93]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Qingdao also decreased [102][109]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [110][111]. - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: The inventory of semi - steel tires in Shandong is at a high level [120]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In June, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year. In July 2025, the sales volume of heavy trucks was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% [128][138]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to June, China exported 4.71 million tons of tires (+4.5%). In June, the export volume and amount of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [139][146]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and Thai latex rebounded [148].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent decline in bond futures provides a good opportunity to enter the market. The current stabilization of the bond market is supported by three factors: the central bank's determination to maintain stability through large - scale open - market operations and month - end bond purchases; the stabilization of the capital market and the weakening of the capital rotation effect between the stock and bond markets; and the attractiveness of bond yields for institutional funds after previous adjustments [8]. - In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the new normal of the declining marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth, and potential trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue under the support of a loose - money cycle [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views - **Weekly Market Review**: The market moved sideways this week. The bond market was less correlated with the stock and commodity markets. There were rumors of large banks buying 7 - and 10 - year bonds, and expectations of the central bank restarting bond purchases were strong. The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of 3 - month term repurchase operations on Thursday. The market expects another 6 - month term repurchase operation this month, and the total operation amount in August is likely to exceed the 900 billion yuan of maturing amounts. The 3M term repurchase rate was rumored to have been cut by 5bp. Liquidity was abundant, with overnight funding rates falling below 1.3%, and short - term bond varieties benefited more than long - term ones [4]. - **Market Data**: The report provides the closing prices, weekly price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various bond futures contracts such as TL2509, TL2512, etc. For example, TL2509 closed at 119.320 with a weekly increase of 0.24%, and its trading volume was 48,964,100 with a decrease of 18,078,900 [5]. Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity and price), various interest rates (such as reverse - repurchase rates, inter - bank lending rates, etc.), deposit reserve ratios, and bond yields (both domestic and US bonds). These charts show the historical trends of these indicators over different time periods [10][15][18]. Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - **Basis**: The report shows the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including the basis of the current quarter contracts [41][43]. - **Net Basis**: It presents the net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts [50][55]. - **IRR**: The internal rate of return (IRR) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts is provided [58][61]. - **Implied Interest Rate**: The implied interest rates of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts are shown [64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillating [8][9] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillating [10] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bullish [87] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expanding due to continuous resumption of production in factories in the northwest and southwest regions, while downstream polysilicon and silicone production has increased. The resumption of supply will impact the supply - demand balance, and the futures price is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. - For polysilicon, the national weekly production has increased, downstream silicon wafer production is on the rise, but market sentiment has cooled. The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the mine - end production halt has been confirmed, and if there is rectification and resumption after compliance, considering the large downstream inventory and supplementary supply from surrounding mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. Market sentiment may trigger downstream stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The current values, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US Dollar Index, exchange rate, Shanghai and London copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented. For example, the US Dollar Index is 98.267, with a daily increase of 0.18%, a weekly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 9.42%. Industrial silicon is priced at 8710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%, a weekly increase of 2.47%, and an annual decrease of 20.71% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 8.35 tons, a 6.16% increase from the previous week, and the number of open furnaces is 270, an increase of 8 from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Sichuan has all increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream polysilicon and silicone weekly production has increased. Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week, and silicone DMC weekly production is 5.12 tons, a 7.11% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.16 tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week; the industry inventory is 43.99 tons, a 0.92% decrease from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.17 tons, a 0.52% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9100 yuan, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 120 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. In major production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 567, 86, and 187 yuan respectively, with changes of - 25, + 52, and + 37 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the expansion of supply and hedging pressure [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Production**: The national weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is 1.09, 0.45, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with a 1.02% increase in Inner Mongolia and no change in the other three regions [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.58GW, a 6.24% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.78GW, a 1.93% decrease from the previous week [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.34 tons, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 10860 tons, a 13.13% increase from the previous week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41323 yuan, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 3878 yuan, an increase of 461 yuan from the previous week [10]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national high - yield is 1.96 tons, a 13.25% increase from the previous week. Lithium extraction from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes has all increased, with weekly productions of 11182, 4410, and 2442 tons respectively, and increases of 5.25%, 35.07%, and 20.18% from the previous week [87]. - **Import**: In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.7 tons, a 16.31% decrease from the previous month and a 9.63% decrease from the previous year. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 42.76 tons, a 17.25% decrease from the previous month and an 18.15% decrease from the previous year [87]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of iron - phosphate - based materials decreased by 10.87% to 6.17 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.99% to 9.46 tons. The weekly production of ternary - based materials increased by 8.66% to 1.75 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.36% to 1.66 tons. In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 226.77 million vehicles, a 0.14% decrease from the previous month, and the sales volume was 132.92 million vehicles, a 1.68% increase from the previous month [87]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.24 tons, a 0.49% increase from the previous week. The lithium - salt factory inventory decreased by 1.85% to 5.10 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1.84% to 9.14 tons. The warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 239.57% to 1.88 tons [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased lepidolite is 75753 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 7557 yuan/ton, a 422 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased spodumene is 68214 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is 1863 yuan/ton, a 212 - yuan decrease from the previous week [87]. - **Investment View**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to the mine - end production halt and potential downstream stocking [87].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-8-11 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 油脂：等待两份报告带来新指引 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 棕榈油观望； 豆油偏多； 菜油中性 | （1）马来棕榈油7月高频数据显现增产但8月强降雨对产地产量不利；（2）后续豆油供应下降预期；（3）菜籽低库存已充分计价。 | | | | 需求 | 棕榈油菜油 中性；豆油 偏多 | （1）印尼棕榈油出口大增、马来出口减弱；（2）美生柴存不确定性，印尼B50落地有难度，生柴支撑有所减弱；（3）未来旺季利好豆油消费。 | | | | 库存 | 菜油棕榈油 中性偏空； 豆油偏多 | （1）国内棕榈油逐渐累库；（2）豆油库存预计达阶段性高点，有去库预期；（3）国内菜油库存高位去化。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the urea industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitudes are expected to be between - 5% and 5% [4][84] 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is influenced by a mix of long and short factors. Macro - level factors, cost, and export prospects are positive, while domestic demand is negative. Therefore, the market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Urea production was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons (1.94% week - on - week). The weekly average daily production was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62% week - on - week. Some provinces saw production and capacity utilization changes. Overall, the supply factor is neutral [4] - **Demand**: The urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Shandong Linyi was 930 tons, a decrease of 200 tons (17.70% week - on - week). The pre - received order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.53 days, an increase of 0.41 days (6.70% week - on - week). The demand factor is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The port sample inventory was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (2.03% week - on - week). The total enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons (3.24% week - on - week). The inventory factor is neutral [4] - **Basis/Spread**: The UR spread had a narrow - range oscillation this week, and the factor is neutral [4] - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of urea sample enterprises had a narrow - range fluctuation. The theoretical profit of coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 167 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), that of the new coal - water slurry process was 282 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week), and that of the gas - fired process was - 185 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The profit factor is bullish [4] - **Valuation**: The full cost of the fixed - bed process is about 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton, and that of the new coal gasification process is around 1400 - 1500 yuan/ton. The valuation factor is neutral [4] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of anti - involution policy, and the cost - side support is relatively strong. The macro and policy factor is bullish [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, also wait and see [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The domestic urea market first rose and then declined this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped to 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After the export policy was announced, the market trading sentiment cooled down, and the short - term market may decline slightly again [6] 3.3 Urea Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Supply Data**: The report presents data on daily urea production, weekly production of large and small particles, production from coal and natural gas sources, and the capacity utilization rate over multiple years [28][30] - **Downstream Agricultural Demand**: Data on corn, wheat, and rice prices, as well as pre - received order days, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and compound fertilizer prices are provided [45][48] - **Downstream Industrial Demand**: Information about the capacity utilization rate and production of formaldehyde, production of melamine, capacity utilization rate of melamine, national building materials and home furnishing index, and vehicle urea price is presented [54][58] - **Inventory and Export Situation**: Data on factory inventory, port inventory, Guangxi inventory, downstream enterprise inventory, compound fertilizer inventory, and export volume are shown [65][71] - **Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on fixed - bed cost, coal - water slurry cost, natural gas - fired cost, and their corresponding profits over multiple years [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities fluctuated and rebounded, with industrial products showing divergent trends and most agricultural products rebounding. The main reasons include the lower - than - expected US non - farm payroll data, the expectation of domestic anti - involution policies, and the impact of US trade policies [3]. - Overseas, the US "equivalent tariff" has come into effect, the US ISM services index is low, Fed officials have signaled rate cuts, and OPEC+ will increase production. In the domestic market, export growth is under pressure in the second half of the year, and inflation data shows a pattern of stable core CPI repair and PPI at the bottom [3]. - In the short term, market sentiment will still fluctuate, and commodities are expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influencing Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodities rebounded this week. Industrial products diverged, and agricultural products mostly rebounded due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar index, domestic policy expectations, and the impact of US tariffs [3]. - **Overseas**: The US "equivalent tariff" is in effect, the ISM services index is low, Fed officials signaled rate cuts, and OPEC+ will increase daily production by 548,000 barrels from September. The crude oil market may remain volatile and weak [3]. - **Domestic**: In July, exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus narrowed slightly. However, exports will face slowdown pressure in the second half of the year. July inflation data showed that CPI may improve but remain low, and PPI will gradually improve with difficulty in turning positive this year [3]. - **Commodity Views**: The short - term market sentiment will fluctuate, and commodities will move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations and the Russia - Ukraine situation [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Tariffs**: The US "equivalent tariff" is in effect, with a 90 - day buffer period for China and the US. Non - US developed economies may face greater export shocks, and the impact on China's exports is complex. Future 232 industry tariffs may involve semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and key minerals [3]. - **ISM Services Index**: The US July ISM services index was 50.1, lower than expected and the previous value, close to the low point in May and the lowest level since June 2024 [3][11]. - **Fed Rate - cut Expectations**: Three Fed officials signaled rate cuts. Market expectations for a September rate cut have increased, especially considering the possible influence of Trump's appointment of Fed governors [3]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase daily production by 548,000 barrels from September. The market may remain volatile and weak in the fourth quarter due to supply surplus and trade policy uncertainties [3][17]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Trade Data**: In July, exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus narrowed slightly. However, exports will face slowdown pressure in the second half of the year due to factors such as high US tariffs and the end of some trade benefits [3]. - **Inflation Data**: In July, CPI was 0%, better than expected, and PPI was - 3.6%, slightly lower than expected. CPI may improve but remain low, and PPI will gradually improve with difficulty in turning positive this year [3][24]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industry开工率**: As of August 8, the PTA开工率 was 75.24%, POY开工率 was 86.2%, and the weaving industry开工率 was 56% [32]. - **Other Data**: In July, some data such as the proportion of a certain indicator was 34.72%, 64.47%, 33.66%, and 1.01%. There were also data on sales volume and price changes [39].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.12% at 3,635.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26%, the ChiNext Index dropped 0.38%, the Northern Securities 50 declined 1.22%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 tumbled 1.39%, the Wind All - A fell 0.22%, the Wind 8500 dropped 0.25%, and the CSI A500 declined 0.24%. A - share trading volume was 1.74 trillion yuan, compared with 1.85 trillion yuan the previous day [10]. - **Specific Index Data**: The Shanghai 50 closed at 2,789.1744, down 0.33%, with a trading volume of 82.805 billion yuan and a turnover of 3.892 billion; the CSI 300 closed at 4,104.9669, down 0.24%, with a trading volume of 308.508 billion yuan and a turnover of 17.317 billion; the CSI 1000 closed at 6,838.1299, down 0.35%, with a trading volume of 381.545 billion yuan and a turnover of 25.147 billion [4]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation | Index | Put Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Call Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | PCR | Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai 50 | 1.08 | 1.86 | 0.58 | 7.47 | 4.76 | 2.71 | 0.57 | | CSI 300 | 3.01 | 4.93 | 0.61 | 20.94 | 11.95 | 8.99 | 0.75 | | CSI 1000 | 10.09 | 11.48 | 0.88 | 29.37 | 14.04 | 15.33 | 1.09 | [4] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50**: Historical volatility is presented with different percentile values and current values. The next - month at - the - money implied volatility has a volatility smile curve [8][9]. - **CSI 300**: Similar to the Shanghai 50, historical volatility and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility's smile curve are provided [9]. - **CSI 1000**: Historical volatility and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility's smile curve are also shown [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美元指数回落，有色板块反弹 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-8-11 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | ...

2012 31 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC: | 1 | PVC | PVC | 2 | PVC | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 79.46% | 2.62% | 4.73% | 78.65% | 2.62% | 0.78% | 81.49% | 2.50% | 15.73% | 3 | PVC | 4.7355 | 1.467 | | 1 | 2 | PVC | 33% | 0.48% | 13.56% | 3 | PVC | | | | | | | 0.19% | 21 | 34% | 4 | PVC | 37.29% | PVC | 8-9 | | | | | | | 5 | 2025 | 6 | PVC | 175.33 | 5 | 8.09 | 1-6 | 1017.20 | 3.03% | PVC | | | | 1 | 8 | 7 | PVC | 7.49% | 77.63 | 17.52% | 70.82 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "oscillating", with logs expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Log futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ under the influence of rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand. The trading strategy suggests spot registration for warehouse - receipt delivery, with attention to domestic demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 4 - 10, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 18 Chinese ports was 14, an increase of 8 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 133%. The total arrival volume was about 425,000 cubic meters, an increase of 204,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 92% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the available days of national log port inventory were 49.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20% and a month - on - month increase of 2.28% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 8, 2025, the trader's profit was - 55 yuan/m³, with a slight week - on - week increase [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 790 - 800 yuan/m³, equivalent to a delivery cost of 820 - 830 yuan/m³ [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated. The ebbing of commodity sentiment and the delivery cost calculated based on the import price formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and the decline in domestic port inventory provided some positive factors. It oscillated in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³. As of August 8, 2025, the total log futures contract positions were 31,497 lots, a 15.7% increase from last week; the positions of the main log futures contract 2509 were 20,650 lots, a 5.4% increase from last week [6][11]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 730/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/770/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total coniferous log imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, the imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.91%. In June 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, the imports of radiata pine were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.55% [21]. - **Shipping and Shipment Volume**: From August 2 - 8, 2025, a total of 10 ships with 360,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships with 290,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [24]. - **Trade Profit**: The increase in foreign quotes intensified the profit inversion of traders. As of July 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, flat week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The North American timber inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.26%. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, flat week - on - week. In terms of provincial inventory, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04% from last week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 960,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 5.55% from last week [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: As of August 1, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.04%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.69% and a month - on - month increase of 7.91% [38]. - **Downstream**: As of August 8, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1260 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 24 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week [42].