本我青中的信息均源于公元可获得的资料、国资税分为救困问事。但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性的任何保证、本者告不构成个人投资建议、也未分对个别投资者持放的投资目标、好多优规或票、投资 者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据北投资，责任章负。本报告仅向榜定客户推选，未到国资期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及南第三京传播的行为收购成"国贸联货的景观 声 明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 II C E K E S 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 1）行情回顾：11月14日，沪金期货主力合约收跌0.29%至953.2元/克，沪镜期货主力合约收跌0.04%至1250元/于克。但周五夜盘、贵金属价格大幅下挫。伦敦金 一度跌破4050美元/盎司关口，沪金夜盘收跌2.53%至924.86元/克: 伦敦银跌幅一度超4%至60美元/盎司关口附近、沪银夜盘跌3.59%至11994元/千克。 同情况: 2）解析及短期展望：在美国关键经济数据持续缺失背景下，多位美联储官员发表偏鹰派言论，市场预测美联储12月降息概率低于50%，美债收益率回升，引发投资 ʊℓ腊微 者恐慌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Views - The anti - involution progress in the new energy industry may be delayed, and the demand for lithium salts is strong [1] - Industrial silicon supply and demand both decline during the dry season, with slight inventory reduction, and the silicon price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9400 in the short term [5] - Polysilicon production and demand will both decline in November. The capacity acquisition plan may be delayed, and the price may range from 4.8 - 5.8 in the short term [6] - For lithium carbonate, supply recovery is limited, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [85] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 9.04 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week decrease. In October, the output was 45.22 tons, a 7.46% month - on - month increase and a 3.75% year - on - year decrease; November's planned output is 38.95 tons, a 13.88% month - on - month decrease and a 3.84% year - on - year decrease [5] - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease; organic silicon DMC weekly production is 4.87 tons, a 1.67% week - on - week increase [5] - **Inventory**: Explicit inventory is 67.87 tons, a 1.96% week - on - week decrease; industry inventory is 45.20 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease [5] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9240 yuan, a 0.05% week - on - week decrease; the average profit per ton is - 56 yuan, an 11 - yuan per - ton week - on - week decrease [5] - **Investment View**: The price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9400 in the short term [5] Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease. In October, the output was 13.4 tons, a 3.08% month - on - month increase and a 1.90% year - on - year increase; November's planned output is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% month - on - month decrease and a 7.62% year - on - year increase [6] - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 12.98GW, a 1.96% week - on - week decrease; single - GW profit is - 4262 yuan, a 1000 - yuan week - on - week decrease [6] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 27.86 tons, a 0.61% week - on - week increase; registered warehouse receipts are 24360 tons, a 17.56% week - on - week decrease [6] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41633 yuan, a 0.07% week - on - week increase; the average profit per ton is 8617 yuan, a 30 - yuan per - ton week - on - week decrease [6] - **News**: The Chinese government has rejected the first proposal to set up an industry integration fund to acquire and shut down inefficient polysilicon production capacity [6] - **Investment View**: The price may range from 4.8 - 5.8 in the short term, maintaining the view of long - term fundamental improvement [6] Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.15 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase. In October, the output was 9.23 tons, a 5.73% month - on - month increase and a 55.00% year - on - year increase; November's planned output is about 9.21 tons, a 0.20% month - on - month decrease and a 43.56% year - on - year increase [85] - **Import**: In September, lithium carbonate imports were 1.96 tons, a 10.30% month - on - month decrease and a 20.49% year - on - year increase; lithium concentrate imports were 52.05 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase and a 38.01% year - on - year increase [85] - **Demand**: For lithium iron phosphate materials, weekly production is 9.99 tons, a 3.15% week - on - week increase; for ternary materials, weekly production is 1.98 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase. In October, new energy vehicle production was 177.20 million, a 9.59% month - on - month increase and a 21.13% year - on - year increase; sales were 171.50 million, a 6.92% month - on - month increase and a 19.92% year - on - year increase [85] - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 12.05 tons, a 2.81% week - on - week decrease; lithium salt factory inventory is 2.83 tons, a 7.96% week - on - week decrease; downstream inventory is 9.22 tons, a 1.11% week - on - week decrease [85] - **Investment View**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the impact of hedging pressure [85]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, and the room for further increase is limited. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread position [10] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5480, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 1.59% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4900, down 0.12% day - on - day and up 0.41% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5462, down 0.73% day - on - day and up 1.19% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 16, 2025, the spot price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.91% week - on - week; that of Russian Needle was 5400, unchanged day - on - day and up 5.88% week - on - week; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quotes of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 680 and 530 dollars respectively, down 2.86% and up 3.92% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import costs of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 5559 and 4344 respectively, down 2.83% and up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5] 2. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of knitting pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different periods. The pulp shipment volume in China in September 2025 was 187 tons, up 13.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated in different periods [5] 3. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 500 with a quantile level of 0.951; that of Silver Star was 650 with a quantile level of 0.88 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 16, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]

叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 主要周度数据变动回顾 | LC国贸期货 | | --- | 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :现货价格持稳，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在67.37万吨，较上周增加1.98%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率83.14%，较上周期增加了0.55个百分点。本周期 | 供给 | 中性 | 装置情况来看，周内惠州埃克森、齐鲁石化、中沙石化装置处于检修状态，存量检修多于周内重启，因此产能利用率环比上涨。 | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+1.64%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期+2.75%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.52%。（ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 顺丁装置开工修复，主流供价逐步抬升 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：顺丁装置开工修复，主流供价逐步抬升 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 ⚫ 截止2025年11月13日，中石化化销BR9000出厂价格在10300元/吨，中石油主要销售公司BR9000出厂价格在10300-10400元/吨。 ⚫ 本周期原料丁二烯端止跌反弹，成本面支撑逐步走强提振顺丁市场交投重心上移；供应面上，扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启、四川石化重启后负荷逐步提升，国内顺丁橡胶产量及产能利用率恢 复性提升。现货市场多数两油品牌资源短时难有低价货源补充，且本月结算均价较高预期影响下两油开单户多大幅挺价观望，但溢价过大导致难有成交跟进，而民营资源价格仍显著低于两油 资源价格，但商谈重心逐步提升至万元附 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 贵金属冲高回落，短期建议观望 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-17 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 ◆ 上周贵金属冲高回落，但周线仍整体收涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）上半 周，美国政府即将结束停摆，市场预期美国财政部即将释放流动性，同时美联储12月 降息预期提升和美联储独立性继续遭到削弱等，美元指数走弱，提振贵金属价格再度 强势上涨；且白银受益于流动性和供应偏紧(国内库存走低+国内TD升水期货)利好， 表现远强于黄金，沪银期货价格创历史新高。（2）后随着美国政府停摆结束落地， 市场避险需求有所削弱，加上在美国关键经济数据持续缺失背景下，多位美联储官员 发表偏鹰派言论，市场预测美联储12月降息概率低于50%，美债收益率回升，引发投 资者恐慌，美股、比特币等风险资产持续下挫；在流动性风险下，贵金属亦遭到同步 抛售，致使金银价格上周五夜盘大幅下挫，且白银因前期涨幅较大，获利了结压力更 大，因此跌幅更甚。 ◆ 后市展望：我们认为流动性风险持续的时间或相对有限，因此贵金属价格在经历上 ...

Group 1: Market Review - Index closing prices, daily changes, trading volumes, and turnovers are presented for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai 50 closed at 3073.6656 with a turnover of 1324.81 billion yuan and a volume of 0.96 billion, and the CSI 300 closed at 4702.0738 with a turnover of 5100.61 billion yuan and a volume of 7590.5763 million. The CSI 1000 had a daily change of 1.39% and a turnover of 4205.96 billion yuan [3]. - On November 13th, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73% to 4029.5 points, hitting a ten - year high. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.55%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 2.62%, the STAR 50 rose 1.44%, the Wind All - A rose 1.33%, the Wind A500 rose 1.49%, and the CSI A500 rose 1.43%. The total A - share trading volume was 2.07 trillion yuan, up from 1.96 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. Group 2: CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading - Options trading volumes and open interests, including those of call and put options, as well as the Put - Call Ratio (PCR) for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the Shanghai 50 had a call option trading volume of 2.55 million, a put option trading volume of 0.61 million, a call option open interest of 7.18 million, and a put option open interest of 3.16 million [3]. Group 3: Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility and volatility cone data, along with volatility smile curves and next - month at - the - money implied volatility for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are analyzed [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Red Sea crisis has officially ended after two years as the Yemeni Houthi armed leadership announced the end of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea [6]. - From 2024 - 2025, shippers were affected by geopolitics and trade wars, but in 2026, with the intensification of supply - demand imbalance, the market will favor shippers, and freight rates will continue to decline [6]. - Maersk emphasizes the advantages of its "twin - star" strategy, with annual cost savings of $720 million - $950 million and a schedule reliability of over 90% [6]. - In November, shipping capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%, and the overall TPBB route capacity expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. Market demand remains healthy after the pre - peak season booking rush [6]. - The EC market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The 02 contract had a subsidy - to - premium market due to rumors of early delivery, and the market declined on Wednesday due to the end of Houthi attacks [7]. - Spot prices of different shipping companies show obvious differentiation. Key factors affecting the market include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the consistency of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term contract variables. In the short term, the market is likely to remain strongly volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract [8]. 3. Directory Summaries Shipping Index Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), and other related sub - indices are provided, along with their previous values and percentage changes. For example, SCFI decreased by 3.59%, while CCFI increased by 3.60% [3][4]. - **Contract Data**: The current values, previous values, and percentage changes of contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc. are given. For instance, EC2506 increased by 1.17% [3][4][5]. - **Position Data**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2608, etc., along with their changes, are presented. For example, the position of EC2606 increased by 56 [5]. - **Monthly Spread Data**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads such as 12 - 02, 12 - 04, etc. are provided. For example, the 12 - 02 spread increased by 37.5 [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Market Analysis**: The end of the Red Sea crisis, supply - demand imbalance, Maersk's strategy, capacity recovery, and factors affecting spot prices are analyzed [6][7][8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, due to farmers' reluctance to sell and some buyers' need to replenish high - quality corn stocks, spot prices in the production areas are firm, and the futures market rebounds. However, with the expected post - ponement of selling pressure and the lack of strong upward drivers before the full release of supply pressure, the short - term rebound is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent farmers' selling rhythm and traders' stock - purchasing behavior [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On November 13th, the flat - hatch price in Jinzhou Port was 2,200 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Bayuquan Port was 2,205 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and in Shekou Port was 2,330 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). The prices in different regions within provinces such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia also showed various changes. The corn starch spot price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan/ton, and in Henan was 2,514 yuan/ton. The wheat spot price in Anhui was 2,504 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 2,509 yuan/ton [5]. - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the corn main contract was 2,188 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and the closing price of the corn starch main contract was 2,490 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The closing price of US corn was 435.50 cents per bushel, the import duty - paid price of US corn was 2,180.40 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of importing US corn was 139.60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spread Data**: The starch - corn spread of the main continuous contract was 302, and the starch - corn spread of the Jilin spot average price was 460 [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The corn inventory in the northern ports was 85.2 million tons, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 19.3 million tons, the foreign trade corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 19.4 million tons, the deep - processing corn inventory in the Northeast was 184.4 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory in North China was 68.8 million tons [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The Northeast production area still faces the pressure of concentrated supply, and the low - quality damp grain in North China also has storage pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the selling pressure in the production areas from December to January. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the per - unit yield is good, and an overall bumper harvest is expected. The import of grains is restricted by policies, and the supply of imported grains is decreasing [5]. - **Demand**: According to the data of the Feed Industry Association, in September 2025, the national industrial feed output was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by enterprises was 33.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4 percentage points. In the short term, the high inventory of livestock and poultry is expected to be maintained, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. Feed enterprises have a low inventory and a rigid demand for replenishing corn stocks, and deep - processing enterprises have a seasonal demand for building stocks, and traders have a strong willingness to purchase [5]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed in the northern ports is slow, and the corn inventory in the southern ports has rebounded from a low level. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory has increased. With the supplement of new - season corn, the ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprises have a low inventory, and deep - processing corn has a seasonal inventory increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the North China market, weak demand and reduced cost support have led to a rise in market wait - and - see sentiment. Traders are cutting prices to stimulate downstream purchases. In the South China market, low - priced social inventory sources have emerged, and major refineries and PetroChina have successively cut prices, lowering the trading center. In the East China market, social inventory is decreasing, and asphalt prices are stable. Looking ahead, asphalt prices in the northern market are likely to be weak due to lower - than - expected demand and strong wait - and - see sentiment, while prices in the southern market may remain stable after major refineries' price adjustments have improved downstream purchasing enthusiasm [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - In the spot market, prices in the East China, North China, Northeast, and Northwest regions remained unchanged at 3260, 3020, 3500, and 3940 respectively. The price in the South China region dropped from 3230 to 3170, a decrease of 60, and the price in the Shandong region dropped from 3020 to 3010, a decrease of 10 [1] Futures Market - In the futures market, the price of BU2511 rose from 2980 to 3020, an increase of 1.34%. The prices of BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602 decreased from 3063, 3063, and 3082 to 3028, 3029, and 3045 respectively, with decreases of 1.14%, 1.11%, and 1.20% [1]