Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is receding, and the PX market has experienced a rapid rise. This surge is mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market is now leading the price - discovery mechanism, and the trend is self - strengthening. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026, driven by new PTA capacity in India and organic demand growth [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 5070 to 5035, a decrease of 35; MEG inner - market price decreased from 3717 to 3697, a decrease of 20; PTA closing price increased from 5086 to 5108, an increase of 22; MEG closing price increased from 3846 to 3866, an increase of 20 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6520 to 6515, a decrease of 5; short - fiber basis decreased from 34 to 33, a decrease of 1; 2 - 3 spread remained unchanged at 18 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5275; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1245 to 1240, a decrease of 5 [2] - East China water bottle chip price increased from 6032 to 6062, an increase of 30; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6032 to 6062, an increase of 30; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6132 to 6162, an increase of 30; outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 805 to 800, a decrease of 5 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 452 to 519, an increase of 67; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10500; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3980 to 3985, an increase of 5 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16600; cotton 328 price decreased from 15610 to 15510, a decrease of 100; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1377 to 1418, an increase of 41 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7210; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 430 to 467, an increase of 37; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7775 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main short - fiber futures dropped 16 to 6504. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factories mainly negotiated prices, while traders' prices declined. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and on - site transactions were scarce [2] - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6030 - 6100 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the support from the cost side was average, most supply - side offers were lowered, local supplies were tight, the low - end price center shifted upward, the overall market trading atmosphere was weak, and the market negotiation center moved up slightly [2] Operating Rate and Sales Rate - Direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber sales rate increased from 66.00% to 72.00%, an increase of 6.00% [2][3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bullish" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward sentiment in industrial products supports the bullish logic for synthetic rubber. The narrowing spread between synthetic and natural rubber has a driving force for further regression. Against the backdrop of the elimination of backward petrochemical production capacity and overseas cracking units, coupled with strong cost - side support and inventory reduction in the current fundamentals, there is still upward potential for the unilateral price of BR [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber increased, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The factors driving the price increase included expectations of reduced production profits due to butadiene inventory reduction in January, strengthened cost support from butadiene export negotiations, and positive macro - level expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January [4] 3.2 Price Comparison - In 2026, the ex - factory prices of domestic cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 3.48% week - on - week. Market prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [7] - The prices of butadiene (BD) also increased. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli increased by 4.73% week - on - week, and the market price in Hangzhou increased by 6.32% week - on - week [8] 3.3 Correlation Analysis - The price trends of synthetic rubber and related natural rubber varieties show different degrees of correlation. For example, BR has a high positive correlation with RU, NR, and butadiene, and the correlation coefficients vary in different time periods (1 - month and 3 - month) [9] 3.4 Device Status - In 2026, some butadiene production enterprises had maintenance or shutdown plans, such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang Petrochemical, etc. Some cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises also had equipment outages or future maintenance plans, like Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical [10][11] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - For butadiene, the current devices are in a shutdown state, and the output is expected to continue to decline. For cis - butadiene rubber, except for the shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, other devices are operating at a high level, and the supply remains sufficient [3] Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, the market turnover has become increasingly sluggish in the early part of the month, with weakening terminal demand and reduced replenishment willingness. In the all - steel tire market, the inventory of some merchants increased significantly last month, and the ability to continuously purchase has weakened. Although some factories have announced profit - sharing policies in January, most are focused on digesting existing inventory, and some replenishment demand is postponed [3] 3.6 Inventory Analysis - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 7.61% week - on - week, and the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders decreased by 1.08% week - on - week. Overall, both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are in a de - stocking cycle [3] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: Bullish. In the medium - to - long term, there is upward potential for the unilateral price of BR [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain an appropriate long position, but be wary of the risk of profit - taking pullbacks. For arbitrage, focus on going long BR and shorting NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 9th, platinum and palladium prices generally rose, with palladium showing significant increases due to the market's early anticipation of potential tariffs on key minerals. The PT2606 contract for platinum closed up 1.11% at 598.8 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract for palladium closed up 6.01% at 499.05 yuan/gram [6]. - Geopolitical tensions and the lower - than - expected US December non - farm payrolls supported platinum and palladium prices. The market anticipates that the US may impose import tariffs on platinum and palladium following the upcoming 232 investigation results, leading to palladium outperforming platinum recently. This is evidenced by the increasing palladium inventory in New York and the expanding price difference between London and New York palladium. EEFs show implied tariff pricings of about 7% for platinum and 12% for palladium [6]. - In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. It is recommended to closely monitor the results of the US 232 investigation. In the long term, with a supply - demand gap for platinum and a relatively loose supply for palladium, strategies could include allocating platinum at low prices or using a "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Price Changes - **Domestic Prices**: Platinum futures' main contract closing price was 599.8 yuan/gram, up 4.31% from the previous value; the spot price of platinum (99.95%) was 580 yuan/gram, down 0.68%. The platinum basis (spot - futures) was - 19.8 yuan/gram, down 320.00%. Palladium futures' main contract closing price was 499.05 yuan/gram, up 8.32%; the spot price of palladium (99.95%) was 455 yuan/gram, unchanged. The palladium basis (spot - futures) was - 44.05 yuan/gram, up 672.81% [4]. - **International Prices (15:00)**: London spot platinum was $2279 per ounce, up 2.97%; London spot gold was $1851.135 per ounce, up 7.17%. NYMEX platinum was $2289.5 per ounce, up 3.89%; NYMEX palladium was $1916.5 per ounce, up 8.46% [4]. - **Internal - External Price Differences (15:00)**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.0128, down 0.10%. The price difference between domestic platinum and London platinum was 19.16 yuan/gram, up 81.30%; the difference between domestic platinum and NYMEX platinum was 16.49 yuan/gram, up 26.88%. The difference between domestic palladium and London palladium was 27.42 yuan/gram, up 35.75%; the difference between domestic palladium and NYMEX palladium was 10.77 yuan/gram, up 6.99% [4][5]. Ratio and Inventory Data - **Ratios**: The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.2481, down 0.0462; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2311, down 0.0502 [5]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory was 624,755 troy ounces, down 0.04%; NYMEX palladium inventory was 211,306 troy ounces, unchanged. Note that due to inconsistent closing times, some platinum and palladium inventory and position data are lagged [5][6]. Position Data - NYMEX total platinum position was 82,836, down 4.57%. Non - commercial net long position in platinum was 18,110, up 0.38%. NYMEX total palladium position was 19,349, down 6.04%. Non - commercial net long position in palladium was - 571, down 201.40% [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp futures were significantly weakened by the macro - sentiment of commodities today but did not break through the 5400 - 5700 shock range. It is expected to have large fluctuations due to commodity sentiment in the near future, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude [6] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 9, 2026, SP2601 was 5480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 0.37%; SP2609 was 5602 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.68% and a weekly increase of 0.57%; SP2605 was 5550 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.84% and a weekly increase of 0.33% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On January 9, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5400 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.89% and no weekly change; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4750 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly increase of 1.06% [6] - **Foreign Offer Prices**: In January 2026, the offer price of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 1.43%; the offer price of Brazilian Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 3.70%; the offer price of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton with no monthly change [6] - **Import Costs**: In January 2026, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 1.42%; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4587 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 3.66%; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton with no monthly change [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons with a monthly increase of 4.92% compared to October; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 176.5 tons with a monthly increase of 33.92% compared to October [6] - **Supply - Domestic Output**: On January 8, 2026, the domestic output of broad - leaf pulp was 25.1 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6] - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, a cumulative increase of 9.1 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 4.8% [6] - **Inventory - Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On January 8, 2026, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 13.5 tons [6] - **Demand - Finished Paper Output**: On January 8, 2026, the output of offset paper was 20.40 tons; the output of coated paper was 8.40 tons; the output of tissue paper was 29.33 tons; the output of white cardboard was 38.30 tons [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - On January 8, A-shares showed a narrow - range consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined but still recorded 15 consecutive positive lines. Themes such as commercial space, brain - computer interfaces, and nuclear fusion rebounded, while the large - finance and non - ferrous metals sectors weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.07% at 4082.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.51%, the ChiNext Index dropped 0.82%, the Northern Securities 50 rose 0.81%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 increased 0.82%, the Wind All - A rose 0.08%, the Wind A500 fell 0.71%, and the CSI A500 declined 0.51%. A - shares had a total trading volume of 2.83 trillion yuan, compared with 2.88 trillion yuan the previous day. Over 3700 stocks in the market rose [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes of Indexes | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Amount Traded (billion yuan) | Trading Volume (billion) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 3122.0627 | - 0.73 | 187.896 | 53.43 | | CSI 300 | 4737.6536 | - 0.82 | 630.656 | 238.80 | | CSI 1000 | 7971.5887 | 0.82 | 32.556 | 6053.89 [3] | 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation | Index | Call Option Volume (million contracts) | Put Option Volume (million contracts) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 3.29 | 1.38 | 0.72 | 6.24 | 3.62 | 0.42 | | CSI 300 | 15.23 | 10.30 | 0.48 | 18.80 | 8.11 | 0.76 | | CSI 1000 | 20.21 | 35.66 | 0.76 | 32.44 | 17.45 | 1.16 [3] | 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50**: Analyzed historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the volatility smile curve, as well as the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3]. - **CSI 300**: Analyzed historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the volatility smile curve, as well as the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3]. - **CSI 1000**: Analyzed historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the volatility smile curve, as well as the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The SCFIS index reported 1795 points, showing a strong and volatile pattern. Its trend is mainly influenced by the expected actual freight rates of liner companies in late January. The current main contract fluctuates violently without a one - way trend, and the price oscillates around the key central level of 1800 points. The market will remain strongly volatile, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Fluctuations**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) comprehensive index is 1656, up 6.66% from the previous value of 1553; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1147, up 1.95% from 1125. SCFI - US West is 2188, up 9.84% from 1992; SCFIS - US West is 1250, down 3.92% from 1301; SCFI - US East is 3033, up 6.57% from 2846; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1690, up 10.24% from 1533; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1795, up 3.04% from 1742; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3143, up 10.94% from 2833 [5]. b. Spot Freight Price - **European Line Freight**: The current European line freight is in high - level oscillation. The second - half - month quotes of each alliance are generally higher than those in the first half - month. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight level, and the individual quote of MSC has a significant increase. For example, in the OA alliance, from wk1 (12/20 - 1/4) to wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the 20GP increased from 1535 to 1824, and the 40GP increased from 2631 to 3068 [6]. c. Market Logic - **Market Fluctuation Reasons**: The market is affected by the expected actual freight rates of liner companies in late January. The main contract fluctuates violently. The morning trading on the previous day was affected by msk's fourth - week opening offer of 2800, up 100 month - on - month, indicating that airlines think the freight rate peak may appear in late January. The afternoon trading saw a price adjustment (for Gdansk Port), a decrease of 300, causing market panic. However, the volume of Gdansk in the container field is about 16% of Rotterdam and is not included in the index, so it is necessary to observe whether the prices of mainstream ports follow the decline [9]. d. Strategy - **Investment Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [10].

Group 1: Core Views - The 2025/26 ending stock forecast of US soybeans remains at 290 million bushels, and the stock-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply and demand report [9]. - There is no obvious driving factor in South American weather in the short term. Brazil has started harvesting. Under the expectation of high Brazilian soybean production, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium [10]. - There are rumors that China will restart the auction of imported soybeans; Sino-Canadian relations are expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed; the macro sentiment has cooled down, and the domestic market has returned to fundamentals with an obvious decline. Recently, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium [10]. Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot in different regions on January 8: Tianjin was 418 with a change of 59; Rizhao was 378 with a change of 49; Zhangjiagang was 368 with a change of 59; Dongguan was 358 with a change of 29; Zhanjiang was 398 with a change of 29; Fangcheng was 418 with a change of 49. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 73 with a change of 54 [6]. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 648 with a change of -8; the futures spread of the main contract was 32 [7]. Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9807 with a change of 162. The futures crushing profit was 4 yuan/ton. The CNF premium of 2025 soybeans and the futures gross profit of imported soybeans in different months from Brazil were also presented [7].

Report Overview - The report is a macro financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro Financial Research Center on January 9, 2026 [3][4] Market Interest Rate - DRO01 closed at 1.27 with a 0.21bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.47 with a 1.15bp increase [4] - GC001 closed at 1.12 with a 50.00bp decrease; GC007 closed at 1.48 with a 5.50bp decrease [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.20bp decrease; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 [4] - 1 - year treasury bond remained at 1.34; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.65 with a 0.70bp decrease; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.88 with a 0.60bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.15 with a 0.30bp increase [4] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 286 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 5288 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 5002 billion yuan [4] - This week, there are 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, and 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases will mature on Thursday, and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Friday [5] Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 closed at 4738 with a 0.82% decrease; the SSE 50 closed at 3122 with a 0.73% decrease; the CSI 500 closed at 7895 with a 0.25% increase; the CSI 1000 closed at 7972 with a 0.82% increase [6] - The trading volume of IF increased by 6.2% to 119688, and the open interest increased by 2.1% to 288744; the trading volume of IH decreased by 5.7% to 44844, and the open interest increased by 1.0% to 91182; the trading volume of IC decreased by 1.1% to 147847, and the open interest decreased by 2.7% to 294237; the trading volume of IM increased by 10.4% to 196014, and the open interest increased by 0.8% to 374177 [6] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the market sentiment cooled slightly, the commodity market weakened significantly, and the stock index fluctuated with a contraction in trading volume [7] - In the short term, the stock index is expected to remain in a bullish pattern. In 2026, with continuous macro - policy support, moderate inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the role of Central Huijin, the stock index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025. It is recommended that investors take long positions [7] Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 0.14%, 2.05%, 2.09%, and 3.07% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IH for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.68%, 0.34%, - 0.06%, and 0.64% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IC for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 2.97%, 4.88%, 5.22%, and 7.24% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IM for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 10.07%, 9.71%, 9.74%, and 10.58% respectively [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On January 9th, the prices of platinum and palladium generally declined. The PT2606 contract closed down 6.72% to 575 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 3.57% to 460.7 yuan/gram. As the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) officially entered the adjustment period, the market worried that this might bring significant selling pressure to the precious metals market. Silver, with a large adjustment weight, was greatly impacted and tumbled, and platinum and palladium were also affected by market sentiment and weakened. In the short - term, platinum and palladium may maintain a narrow - range oscillation pattern. In the long - term, given the supply - demand gap of platinum and the pattern tending towards a looser supply, the strategy can be to allocate platinum on dips or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Domestic Prices**: The platinum futures' main closing price was 575 yuan/gram, down 3.93% from the previous value; the domestic platinum price was 584 yuan/gram, down 5.04%. The platinum basis (spot - futures) was 9 yuan/gram, down 45.45%. The lithium futures' main closing price was 460.7 yuan/gram, down 3.20%, and the spot lithium price was 455 yuan/gram, down 1.09%. The lithium basis was - 5.7 yuan/gram, down 64.26% [4]. - **International Prices**: The London spot platinum price was 2213.21 US dollars/ounce, down 2.66%; the London spot palladium price was 1727.258 US dollars/ounce, down 0.45%. NYMEX platinum was 2203.7 US dollars/ounce, down 3.16%, and NYMEX palladium was 1767 US dollars/ounce, down 1.67% [4]. - **Internal - External 15 - point Spread**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.0197, up 0.01%. The spread between Guangdong platinum and London platinum was 10.57 yuan/gram, down 43.56%; the spread between Guangdong platinum and NYMEX platinum was 12.99 yuan/gram, down 28.66% [4]. Ratio and Inventory - **Ratio**: The ratio of platinum to palladium in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 1.2575, a change of - 0.0094; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2813, a change of - 0.0291 [5]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory was 645366 troy ounces, with no change; NYMEX palladium inventory was 211306 troy ounces, with no change. Note that due to inconsistent closing times, some platinum and palladium inventory and position data were lagged [5][6]. Position - **Platinum Position**: NYMEX total platinum position decreased by 8.30% to 90330; non - commercial net long position of platinum decreased by 6.73% to 18042 [5]. - **Palladium Position**: NYMEX total palladium position decreased by 9.32% to 22709; non - commercial net long position of palladium decreased by 568.03% to - 571 [5].