Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to continue their weak performance with high volatility due to factors such as geopolitical risk subsiding, index adjustment concerns, and risk - control measures from the exchange. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains intact, and investors can wait for opportunities to buy on dips after the current risks are released [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 8, 2026, London gold spot was at $4434.31/oz, down 0.2% from the previous day; London silver spot was at $76.44/oz, down 3.2%. COMEX gold was at $4442.80/oz, down 0.3%, and COMEX silver was at $76.12/oz, down 3.4%. Shanghai gold futures' main contract closed at 997.94 yuan/g, down 0.73%, and Shanghai silver futures' main contract closed at 18450 yuan/kg, down 5.91% [3][4]. - The price differences and their changes were also presented, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price difference, which decreased by 6.1% from January 7 to January 8 [4]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 7, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR held 1067.13 tons, with no change from the previous day. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 5.02% compared to January 6 [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 8, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 97653 kg, unchanged from the previous day, while SHFE silver inventory increased by 15.22% to 637647 kg [4]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On January 8, 2026, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.02, up 0.01% from the previous day. The US dollar index was 98.74, up 0.14% [4]. 3.5 Market Analysis - After the geopolitical risk in Latin America subsided, concerns about the adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and risk - control measures from the exchange led to a sharp decline in precious metal prices. In the short term, prices may remain weak and volatile. In the long term, the upward logic of precious metals remains valid [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures weakened significantly today due to the macro - sentiment of commodities but did not break the 5400 - 5700 trading range. It is expected to be highly volatile in the near term due to commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data Futures and Spot Prices - On January 8, 2026, SP2601 futures price was 5444 yuan/ton, down 1.38% day - on - day and 0.95% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5564 yuan/ton, down 1.42% day - on - day and 0.71% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5504 yuan/ton, down 1.64% day - on - day and 1.15% week - on - week [6] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 0.90% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5300 yuan/ton, down 1.85% both day - on - day and week - on - week; the spot price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4750 yuan/ton, up 1.06% both day - on - day and week - on - week [6] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chile Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month [6] - The outer - disk quote of Brazil Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month; its import cost was 4587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month [6] - The outer - disk quote of Chile Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data Import Volume and Shipment - In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3% [6] Domestic Output - On January 8, 2026, the domestic output of broadleaf pulp was 25.1 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6] Inventory - As of January 4, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 9.1 tons from the previous period and 4.8% higher on a month - on - month basis. The inventory ended the five - week de - stocking trend and started to accumulate in this cycle [6] - On January 8, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 200.7 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 13.5 tons [6] Demand (Finished Paper Production) - On January 8, 2026, the production of offset paper was 20.40 tons, coated paper was 8.40 tons, tissue paper was 29.33 tons, and white cardboard was 38.30 tons [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer for broadleaf pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the offer for natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - Demand: The pulp demand has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has ebbed, and the PX market has experienced a rapid rise. This round of increase is not due to a sudden change in fundamentals but is mainly driven by speculative funds. The futures market has begun to dominate the price discovery mechanism, and the trend reinforces itself. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are indeed supported. The market is expected to remain tight in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamental tensions intersect. Domestic PTA maintains a high - operating rate, and although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, the production cuts of polyester factories have formed a negative feedback [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalog 1. Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5080 to 5070, a decrease of 10; MEG domestic price decreased from 3719 to 3717, a decrease of 2; PTA closing price decreased from 5150 to 5086, a decrease of 64; MEG closing price decreased from 3879 to 3846, a decrease of 33; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple decreased from 6545 to 6520, a decrease of 25; short - fiber basis decreased from 36 to 34, a decrease of 5; 2 - 3 spread decreased from 4 to 18, a decrease of 14; polyester staple cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber spread decreased from 1270 to 1245, a decrease of 25; East China water bottle chips decreased from 6053 to 6032, a decrease of 21; hot - filling polyester bottle chips decreased from 6053 to 6032, a decrease of 21; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips decreased from 6153 to 6132, a decrease of 21; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 464 to 452, a decrease of 12; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10500; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3955 to 3980, an increase of 25; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16600; cotton 328 price decreased from 15680 to 15610, a decrease of 70; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1334 to 1377, an increase of 43; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7210; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 421 to 430; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7775 [2] 2. Market Conditions of Short Fibers and Bottle Chips - Short - fiber: The main short - fiber futures dropped 56 to 6472. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factories mainly negotiated prices, and trader prices decreased. Downstream buyers had a strong bearish attitude, making small - order purchases as needed, and there was not much trading in the market. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6390 - 6650 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6510 - 6770 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6450 - 6630 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6000 - 6110 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures first rose and then fell, and the support from the cost side weakened. Most supply - side offers were raised, the market negotiation atmosphere was weak, downstream terminals made small - order replenishments, the trading link had rigid - demand transactions, and the market negotiation focus shifted slightly downward [2] 3. Operating Rates and Production and Sales - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 74.00% to 66.00%, a decrease of 8.00%; polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PTA market is affected by the weakening demand in the off - season, with prices falling and the spot basis weakening. The MEG market is under pressure due to increasing supply and falling coal prices, but may be supported by domestic policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price decreased from 416.3 yuan/barrel on 2026/1/7 to 416.2 yuan/barrel on 2026/1/8, a change of - 0.10 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Spread decreased from 2124.7 yuan/ton to 2061.4 yuan/ton, a change of - 63.27 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: Decreased from 1.7023 to 1.6816, a change of - 0.0208 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Price decreased from 900 to 886, a change of - 14 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Decreased from 366 to 353, a change of - 13 [2]. - **PTA Main Futures Price**: Decreased from 5150 yuan/ton to 5086 yuan/ton, a change of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: Decreased from 5100 to 5070, a change of - 30.0 [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Increased from 331.1 yuan/ton to 354.6 yuan/ton, a change of 23.5 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Disk Processing Fee**: Increased from 381.1 yuan/ton to 390.6 yuan/ton, a change of 9.5 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Basis**: Decreased from (46) to (48), a change of - 2.0 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Decreased from 100768 to 100754, a change of - 14 [2]. - **MEG Main Futures Price**: Decreased from 3879 yuan/ton to 3846 yuan/ton, a change of - 33.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (133.53) to (134.72), a change of - 1.2 [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: Decreased from 3719 to 3717, a change of - 2.0 [2]. - **MEG Main Basis**: Remained unchanged at - 140 [2]. Industry Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 87.87% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 77.40% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 60.87% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 88.20% to 88.04%, a change of 0.16% [2]. Product Data - **POY150D/48F**: Price remained unchanged at 6565 [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from (291) to (265), a change of 26.0 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: Price remained unchanged at 6780 [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (576) to (550), a change of 26.0 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: Price decreased from 7760 to 7745, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from (296) to (285), a change of 11.0 [2]. - **Long - Filament Sales Volume**: Increased from 48% to 49%, a change of 1% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Price decreased from 6545 to 6520, a change of - 25 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 39 to 40, a change of 1.0 [2]. - **Short - Fiber Sales Volume**: Decreased from 71% to 69%, a change of 2% [2]. - **Semi - Bright Chip**: Price decreased from 5750 to 5740, a change of - 10.0 [2]. - **Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (206) to (190), a change of 16.0 [2]. - **Chip Sales Volume**: Decreased from 48% to 47%, a change of - 1% [2]. Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000 - ton device of Sanfangxiang is restarting, and another 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance recently. The devices of Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu in December are supplemented. Some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their loads [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weak weekly data, with supply rising and demand seasonally weakening. The weakening basis is beneficial for cash-and-carry arbitrage entry, and short-term sentiment has more pricing power than industrial contradictions [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have large fluctuations due to changing market sentiment. Demand is poor and supply is excessive, and the risk of a decline under pressure in the future is relatively large [3]. - After a sharp rise, coking coal and coke have undergone adjustments. The market is in the off-season, and the subsequent trend mainly depends on whether there are sufficient "expectations" to attract funds. It is advisable to go long on dips, but caution is needed due to intensified fluctuations [5]. - Iron ore prices have fallen back after reaching the pressure level. The valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase long. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On January 8, the closing prices of far-month and near-month contracts of various steel products and their changes are provided, including price, basis, spread, ratio, and profit data [1]. - The weekly data of steel is weak, with supply rising and demand seasonally weakening. The weakening basis is beneficial for cash-and-carry arbitrage entry, and short-term sentiment has more pricing power than industrial contradictions [2]. - It is recommended to participate in long positions with stop-loss, and conduct rolling operations for hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Recently, market sentiment has been changeable, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have fluctuated greatly. Demand is poor, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. Supply is excessive, and the pressure of supply overhang in the medium term remains [3]. - It is recommended that industrial customers hedge on rallies [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On January 8, the closing prices of far-month and near-month contracts of coking coal and coke and their changes are provided, as well as spot price data [1]. - The spot market is active, but the downstream's willingness to accept high-priced Mongolian coal is not strong. After a sharp rise, the market has adjusted, and the market is in the off-season. It is advisable to go long on dips, but caution is needed due to intensified fluctuations [5]. - It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen back after reaching the pressure level. The valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase long. It is advisable to wait and see [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 7, the A-share market fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased, achieving 14 consecutive positive days and approaching 4,100 points during the session. The semiconductor industry chain led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.05% at 4085.77 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.31%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.22%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 0.99%, the Wind All A rose 0.19%, the Wind A500 fell 0.17%, and the CSI A500 remained flat. The total trading volume of A-shares throughout the day was 2.88 trillion yuan, compared with 2.83 trillion yuan the previous day [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Index Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai 50 was 3145.1197, with a decline of 0.43% and a trading volume of 16.93 billion, and the trading value was 477.666 billion yuan, a decline of 0.29%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 52.14, with an increase of 0.53%, and the trading volume was 66.49 billion, and the trading value was 25.91 billion yuan. The closing price of the CSI 1000 was 6179.17, and the trading volume was 79.064 billion, and the trading value was 31.873 billion yuan [3] - **Options Trading**: For the Shanghai 50 index options, the trading volume of call options was 5.33 million contracts, and that of put options was 3.87 million contracts, with a PCR of 0.76; the open interest of call options was 3.43 million contracts, and that of put options was 2.61 million contracts, with a PCR of 0.76. For the CSI 300 index options, the trading volume of call options was 5.23 million contracts, and that of put options was 9.72 million contracts, with a PCR of 0.83; the open interest of call options was 15.12 million contracts, and that of put options was 9.89 million contracts, with a PCR of 0.53. For the CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume of call options was 33.91 million contracts, and that of put options was 20.31 million contracts, with a PCR of 0.67; the open interest of call options was 32.06 million contracts, and that of put options was 15.16 million contracts, with a PCR of 1.12 [3] Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50 Volatility**: The report presents the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and volatility smile curve of the Shanghai 50 index, as well as the implied volatility of the at - the - money options for the next month [3] - **CSI 300 Volatility**: Similar to the Shanghai 50, it shows the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and volatility smile curve of the CSI 300 index, along with the implied volatility of the at - the - money options for the next month [3] - **CSI 1000 Volatility**: It also includes the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and volatility smile curve of the CSI 1000 index, and the implied volatility of the at - the - money options for the next month [3]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 www.itf.com.cn ITG国贸期货 数据日报 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------22/23 ------23/24 24/25 25/26 RM1-5 1000 258 11 800 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 656 36 现货价差(广东) 200 豆粕-菜粕 392 6 盘面价差(主力) 07/27 08/22 10/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) 157. 00 品显 6. 9594 158 0 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进口大亨盘面毛利(元/吨) 一巴西2月 一 巴西3月 巴西1月 ====== 巴西4月 · 巴西1月 巴西2月 一巴西3月 ===== 巴西4月 ----- 巴西8月 ----- 巴西6月 ----- 巴西7月 ----- 巴西8月 ==== 巴西6月 ====== 巴西7月 ====== 巴西5月 ==== 巴西5月 400 250 国际数据 200 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, which provides some support for the downside expectation of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report to the US soybean yield and exports. There is no obvious speculative driver for the South American weather in the short term. Currently, Brazil has started harvesting. With the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium. [8][9] - The de-stocking expectation of domestic soybeans at the end of January has accelerated. At the same time, due to concerns about the shortage of soybeans in the first quarter and the extended customs inspection, the downstream pre-holiday stocking expectation is relatively positive, which is conducive to supporting the domestic spot price trend before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter brings a structural problem of domestic supply, which supports M03. The M03-M05 spread is still biased towards positive arbitrage in the short term, with the risk lying in policy changes. It is difficult to predict the specific volume, price, and shipping rhythm of the imported soybean auction or directional sales. Investors are recommended to operate with caution. [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis Data - Dalian's 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) was 389 on January 7, down 15; Tianjin's was 359, down 15; Rizhao's was 329, up 5; Zhangjiagang's was 309, down 15; Dongguan's was 329, up 5; Zhanjiang's was 369, up 5; and Fangcheng's was 369, up 5. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 19 on January 7, down 24. [6] Spread Data - The M1-5 spread was 360 on January 7, down 14; the RM1-5 spread was 258, up 11; the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 656, up 36; and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 392, up 6. [6][7] International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9594, and the spot premium for 2025 continuous-month soybeans was 157.00 cents per bushel. The on - disk crushing profit was 158 yuan per ton. [7] Inventory Data - The report shows inventory trends of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal, as well as the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises from 2020 - 2025. [7] 开机 and压榨情况 - The report presents the soybean crushing volume and operating rate of national major oil mills from 2020 - 2025. [7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily [2] - Research institute: Guomao Futures Research Institute, Energy and Chemical Research Center [3] - Author: Lu Dingyi [3] - Date: January 8, 2026 [3] - Data sources: Clarksons, Wind [3] Group 2: Freight Index Data - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and related sub - indices**: - The current value of the comprehensive index SCET is 1656, with a previous value of 1553 and a growth rate of 6.66% [4]. - The current value of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1147, with a previous value of 1125 and a growth rate of 1.95% [4]. - SCFI - US West has a current value of 2188, a previous value of 1992, and a growth rate of 9.84% [4]. - SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1250, a previous value of 1301, and a decline rate of - 3.92% [4]. - SCFI - US East has a current value of 3033, a previous value of 2846, and a growth rate of 6.57% [4]. - SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1690, a previous value of 1533, and a growth rate of 10.24% [4]. - **One - day data of other indices**: - SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1795, a previous value of 1742, and a growth rate of 3.04% [4]. - SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 3143, a previous value of 2833, and a growth rate of 10.94% [4]. Group 3: Spot Price and Market Analysis - **Market overview**: The market is in a downward trend. The current European line freight rates are in a high - level shock. The quotes of each alliance in the middle and late ten - day period are generally higher than those in the early ten - day period. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight rate level, and the individual quote increase of MSC is significant [5]. - **Freight rates of different alliances**: - GEMINI Alliance: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1585, 40GP is 2550; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1635, 40GP is 2650, with an increase of 50 and 100 respectively compared to wk1 [5]. - OA Alliance: In wk1 (12/20 - 1/4), 20GP is 1535, 40GP is 2631; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1824, 40GP is 3068, with a significant increase compared to wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [5]. - PA Alliance: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1603, 40GP is 2806; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1645, 40GP is 2600; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [5]. - MSC: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1700, 40GP is 2840; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1880, 40GP is 3140, with an increase of 180 and 300 respectively compared to wk1 [6]. - **Market logic**: The SCFIS index is reported at 1795 points, showing a relatively strong shock pattern. Its trend is mainly restricted by the expected actual freight rates of liner companies in late January. The current main contract fluctuates violently and lacks a one - way trend, with high operation difficulty. The price fluctuates around the key central level of 1800 points. The upward and downward movements are affected by the alternation of the actual index and market sentiment. The market may still be in a relatively strong shock state [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. The silver price may face significant volatility risks, and investors are advised to control their positions. In the long - term, the center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **15:00 Price on January 7, 2026**: London gold spot was $4444.75/ounce, London silver spot was $78.99/ounce, COMEX gold was $4455.00/ounce, COMEX silver was $78.83/ounce, AU2602 was 998.90 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 19287.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 996.29 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 19264.00 yuan/kilogram. Compared with January 6, 2026, the price changes were - 0.5%, 0.0%, - 0.5%, 0.1%, - 0.6%, - 0.9%, - 0.6%, and - 1.0% respectively [3] - **Spread/Ratio**: On January 7, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.61 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 23 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 6.70 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 777 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 51.79, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 56.51, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.50 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was 3 yuan/kilogram. The price changes compared with January 6, 2026 were - 2.6%, - 309.1%, 23.6%, 32.9%, 0.3%, - 0.6%, 3.3%, and - 160.0% respectively [3] 3.2 Position Data - As of January 6, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1067.13 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 16118.15581 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 275592 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 44419 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions were 231173 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 50506 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 20443 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 30063 contracts. Compared with January 5, 2026, the changes were 0.19%, - 1.44%, - 5.02%, - 10.19%, - 3.96%, - 8.57%, 5.60%, and - 16.22% respectively [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 7, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 97653.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 553429.00 kilograms. Compared with January 6, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 4.82% respectively. On January 6, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36403452 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449211255 troy ounces. Compared with January 5, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and - 0.07% respectively [3] 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 7, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.02, the US dollar index was 98.60, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18, the VIX was 14.75, the S&P 500 was 6944.82, and NYMEX crude oil was 56.97. Compared with January 6, 2026, the changes were 0.02%, 0.28%, 0.29%, 0.24%, - 1.01%, 0.62%, and - 2.37% respectively [3] 3.5 Market Review - On January 7, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.17% to 998.9 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.07% to 19290 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The increase in the possibility of geopolitical risk spill - over and the risk - aversion demand boosted the prices of precious metals. The main contract of silver futures broke through the 2000 yuan/kilogram mark and reached a new high. Then, due to profit - taking pressure and market concerns about the BO0H index adjustment, the prices of precious metals fell from their highs. The weakening of the domestic silver spot premium and the positive structure of silver TV and futures also suppressed the upward trend of the silver price. However, the People's Bank of China's continuous gold reserve increase for 14 months and the lower - than - expected US ADP data in December supported the prices of precious metals [4] 3.7 Medium - and Long - Term View - In the medium and long term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization trends. The US huge debt and the weakened independence of the Fed will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [5]