1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by the resonance of capital and fundamental factors. In the long - term, the stock index in 2026 is expected to continue the upward trend, supported by continuous policy efforts, moderate inflation recovery, and capital market reform policies [3]. - It is recommended that investors opportunistically establish long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impacts**: - Economic and corporate profits: Inflation is moderately rising, with CPI and PPI showing positive trends, which is slightly positive for the stock index [3]. - Macro - policies: The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of national subsidy funds in 2026 have been issued, with subsidy policies for various consumer goods, which is slightly positive [3]. - Overseas factors: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has significantly decreased, which is slightly negative [3]. - Liquidity: Post - holiday market trading volume has significantly expanded, with sufficient funds promoting a strong rise in the stock index, which is positive [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint and Strategy**: - Investment view: Opportunistically go long in the short - term and continue to be bullish on the stock index in 2026 [3]. - Trading strategy: Opportunistically go long in the single - side trading, and pay attention to overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 2.79% to 4758.9; the Shanghai 50 rose 3.4% to 3134.3; the CSI 500 rose 7.92% to 8056.7; the CSI 1000 rose 7.03% to 8129.2 [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts of the corresponding indexes also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Industry Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indexes, the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, media, non - ferrous metals, and computer industries led the gains, while only the banking industry declined [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased to varying degrees [11]. - **Spread Performance**: The spreads between different indexes and different contract months of futures showed different levels of premium or discount [13]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: This week (January 5 - 9), the central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1221.4 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 138.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase maturing [24]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of January 8, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2612.22 billion yuan, an increase of 79.51 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing purchase amount accounted for 12.4% of the total market trading volume, at the 98.2% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 652.17 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Profits - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In December 2025, China's economic indicators showed different trends, such as an increase in GDP, changes in industrial added value, investment, consumption, and employment data [33]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction investment showed different development trends [35][37][38][39]. - **PMI Indicators**: In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI both showed positive changes, indicating an improvement in the economic situation [41]. - **Corporate Profit Indicators**: The profitability indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different levels of performance [46][47]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Macro - policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced, including more active fiscal policies, moderately loose monetary policies, and policies to support housing consumption and promote consumption [51][52][53]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In December 2024, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the number of new non - farm payrolls decreased. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [64][66][67]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump's team has announced a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations [73][75][77][79]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of January 9, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4 times, 12 times, 36.4 times, and 49.4 times respectively, at different quantile levels since October 2014 [82]. - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors showed different levels of price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their corresponding historical quantile levels [87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palladium, Platinum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, BR Rubber, PTA, LPG [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC [1] - Neutral: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Iron Ore, Black Metals, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Soybean Oil, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Ethylene Glycol, Asian Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by sufficient market funds and positive macro - fundamentals [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Different commodities have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The stock index broke through strongly with heavy volume last week, opening up a new upward space. With positive macro - fundamental data, it is expected to maintain an upward pattern in the short - term [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound despite a recent high - level decline [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to supply - side restrictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as they are near the cost line despite weak industrial fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices have risen recently due to good macro - sentiment, but caution is needed regarding the upside space [1]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with increased risk, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies, macro - sentiment, and futures positions [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin prices are affected by market sentiment, and caution is needed for capital withdrawal [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term but with significant fluctuations [1]. - The short - term pattern of weak platinum and strong palladium may continue, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the long - term [1]. - Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes and reduced production schedules in related industries [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon has factors such as a traditional peak season for new energy vehicles,旺盛 demand for energy storage, and increased supply resumption [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise rapidly in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Short - term sentiment and funds play a greater role than industrial contradictions, and long positions with stop - losses can be considered [1]. - Iron ore has obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Black metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with potential supply disturbances [1]. - Glass prices are supported in the short - term but face over - supply pressure in the medium - term [1]. - Soda ash prices follow glass and are more loosely supplied in the medium - term, facing pressure [1]. - Coking coal may have room to rise if the "capacity reduction" expectation continues, but the actual increase is hard to judge [1]. - Coke has a similar logic to coking coal [1]. Oils - Palm oil is expected to be bearish in December according to MPOB data but may reverse later, and short - term rebounds due to macro - sentiment should be watched [1]. - Soybean oil has a strong fundamental and is recommended for long - allocation in oils [1]. - Rapeseed oil may have a trading logic change, and there is still room for price decline [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton is in a situation of having support but no driving force, and future policies and market conditions should be watched [1]. - Sugar has a global surplus and increased domestic supply, and attention should be paid to capital changes [1]. - Corn sales progress has slowed but is still fast year - on - year, and the spot price is firm in the short - term [1]. - Bean粕 is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [1]. - Pulp prices are affected by macro - commodity fluctuations, and cautious observation is recommended [1]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range [1]. - Live pigs' supply capacity still needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil has a risk of rising due to geopolitical factors, but there are also factors such as increased supply and weakening demand [1]. - Fuel oil is affected by factors similar to crude oil [1]. - Asphalt has factors such as high profit and potential supply changes [1]. - BR rubber has factors such as reduced upward momentum in the short - term and positive factors for future butadiene exports [1]. - PTA has a recent price increase not due to fundamental changes but has fundamental support in the future [1]. - Ethylene glycol rebounded due to supply - side news [1]. - Asian styrene is in a weak - balance state, and short - term upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Propylene has cost support and geopolitical risks [1]. - PVC is expected to face over - supply in 2026, and there is a possibility of capacity clearance [1]. - LPG has factors such as increased import costs, geopolitical risks, and changing inventory trends [1].

【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 贵金属波动剧烈，周线仍收涨 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-1-12 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 资料来源：Wind、国贸期货研究院 ◆ 展望后市：短期金银或维持偏强运行，但波动或仍会较为剧烈。本周建议关注美国CPI、特 朗普关税裁决、伊朗局势进展、美联储新任主席人选及美国关键矿产关税结果等一系列事件。 策略上，以逢低做多或卖浅虚看跌期权为主。 ◆ 中长期观点：我们认为贵金属牛市的底层逻辑依然稳固。美国联邦政府债务规模持续攀升将 不断加剧美元信用长期走弱风险，叠加美联储仍处于降息周期、全球地缘局势仍旧复杂、全球 央行购金延续等，都将会继续支撑黄金价格中枢继续稳步上移。 01 PART ONE 行情及基本面指标跟踪 周度观点摘要 黄金白银价格和金银比价 ◆ 上周金银剧烈波动，周线整体仍收涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）地缘政治风险升 温：元旦假期，美委局势急剧升级，且特朗普多次发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [5] Core Viewpoints - The prices of January CP propane and butane have strengthened beyond expectations, but domestic demand remains stagnant. Combustion demand is basically stable but weaker year - on - year, and although the chemical demand maintains high - level operation, the profits are deeply in the red, so it's hard to say that the demand is improving. In the short term, the PG price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situations on the PG price [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - During this period, the main contract of LPG futures trended upward, with a fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,250 yuan/ton. The positive news of the high - opening of January CP still exists, and some downstream users replenished their stocks after the New Year's Day. Most of the domestic markets rose, and the price in South China reached over 5,000 yuan. The market sentiment was strong, and the LPG futures outperformed crude oil under the support of domestic and international spot prices. However, the demand side did not improve. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 268 yuan/ton, in South China was 656 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 201 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in Shandong. As of Thursday this week, the total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,248 lots [6] Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 51.81 million tons (a decrease of 1.07%). Among them, the commercial volume of civil gas was 21.68 million tons (a decrease of 3.26%), industrial gas was 18.95 million tons (an increase of 1.12%), and ether - after C4 was 16.73 million tons (an increase of 1.33%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 53 million tons (a decrease of 7.04%). During the week, some enterprises in East China and Northeast China used resources internally, and the external sales volume of an individual enterprise in Shaanxi increased, resulting in a decrease in the weekly commercial volume [5] Demand - In winter, the heating demand remains, and the combustion demand for LPG is gradually improving, reaching a relatively high level. PDH plants are operating at a high load, but the plant profit losses are intensifying. The propane procurement demand of port chemical enterprises is relatively rigid, but there have been reports of plant production cuts recently, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually, leading to a decline in propane chemical demand. MTBE profits are in the red, the overseas olefin blending demand has slowed down, the domestic export window has closed, most orders have been executed, and it is difficult for refineries to maintain high - level operation, which in turn restricts the price trend of civil gas [5] Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 213.20 million tons (a decrease of 0.41%), and the port inventory was 249.60 million tons. On the refinery side, the high import cost continued to provide positive support. Coupled with downstream replenishment after the festival, the market trading atmosphere was good, and each manufacturer's shipments were stable, resulting in a decrease in inventory. On the port side, the number of arriving ships this period was limited. Except for the increase in arriving ships in South China and Fujian, the number in other areas decreased, and the import resource supply was insufficient. The terminals mainly focused on inventory digestion [5] Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 246 yuan/ton in East China, 619 yuan/ton in South China, and 179 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 6,218 lots, an increase of 30 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was Shandong [5][9] Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were [not clearly stated]. The profits of PDH to propylene were - 832 yuan/ton, MTBE isomerization was - 70 yuan/ton, and alkylation in Shandong was - 330 yuan/ton [5] Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.33 (an increase of 2.04%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was 85 yuan/ton (a decrease of 28.57%). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil price showed a downward trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5] Other Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 was the fastest in nearly three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed that labor demand was still weak. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that, with the approval of the State Council, Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group will implement a restructuring. Iran is implementing a nationwide network control, which is related to ongoing protests in many places. Trump arrested Maduro and summoned enterprises such as ExxonMobil and Chevron to the White House to discuss the oil investment plan in Venezuela. The events of the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers have fermented again, triggering market panic about geopolitics [5] Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, pay attention to PG2 - 3 positive spreads, PG3 - 4 reverse spreads, long SC and short PG, and long PP and short PG [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for LLDPE and PP are both "Oscillation" [3][4] 2. Core Views - LLDPE is experiencing a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. Short - term market trends lack obvious driving forces and are expected to be mainly oscillatory [2][3] - PP has insufficient driving forces, and the rebound is also limited. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 686,800 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 83.67%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [3] Demand - The average operating rate of LLDPE/LDPE downstream products in China decreased by 0.2% from the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 1.1%, while the operating rate of PE packaging film increased by 0.6%. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 395,400 tons, a 24,700 - ton increase from the previous period, a 6.66% month - on - month increase. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 475,100 tons, a 3,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 0.77% month - on - month increase and a 19.11% year - on - year increase [3] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 160, with the futures price at a discount [3] Profit - The costs of coal - to - and ethane - to - polyethylene production increased by 59 yuan/ton and 248 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous period. The costs of oil - to - and ethylene - to - polyethylene production decreased by 5 yuan/ton and 129 yuan/ton respectively. The cost of methanol - to - polyethylene production remained the same as last week [3] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [3] Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3] 3.2 PP Analysis Supply - This week, China's polypropylene production was 779,200 tons, a 13,400 - ton decrease (1.69% decline) from last week and a 38,700 - ton increase (5.23% increase) compared to the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.47%, a 1.27% month - on - month decrease [4] Demand - The average operating rate decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 52.60%. After New Year's Day, cold weather in northern China affected outdoor construction, leading to a decline in the demand for ton bags, woven bags, and outdoor pipe network construction. The CPP sample enterprise average operating rate decreased by 2.18% from last week [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 743,500 tons, a 9,300 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.26% month - on - month increase. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 467,700 tons, a 23,000 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 4.69% month - on - month decrease [4] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 254, with the futures price at a premium [4] Profit - This week, the profits of oil - to -, coal - to -, methanol - to -, externally - sourced propylene - to -, and PDH - to - polypropylene production all recovered. The average weekly profit of Chinese polypropylene import samples was - 288.03 yuan/ton, a 55.30 - yuan increase from last week, a 16.11% month - on - month increase [4] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [4] Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [4] 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - PP futures price increased from 6348 yuan/ton to 6514 yuan/ton, a 2.61% increase; PE futures price increased from 6472 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, a 3.12% increase [5] - PP production decreased by 12.21%; PE production increased by 0.52% [5] - PP spot price increased from 6140 yuan/ton to 6260 yuan/ton, a 1.95% increase; LLDPE spot price increased from 6310 yuan/ton to 6410 yuan/ton, a 1.58% increase [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term methanol investment will be mainly oscillating, supported by reduced imports and the expectation of tight supply - demand balance. High port inventory but increasing de - stocking expectations, stable coal prices providing cost support, and geopolitical sentiment enhancing market resilience. The core price range is expected to be 2200 - 2300 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - This week, methanol supply contracted overall, affected by both import and domestic production adjustments. Import volume decreased significantly, and although domestic capacity utilization increased slightly, total output declined due to new maintenance and production cuts in some plants. Next period, supply is expected to recover as more plants plan to resume production and there will be fewer maintenance and production cuts. Different production processes have different operating rates, with coal - based methanol operation relatively stable and natural - gas - based processes fluctuating slightly [2] Demand - This week, methanol demand remained weak in the off - season, showing significant structural differentiation. Total consumption decreased slightly week - on - week, lacking an upward driver. The main downstream methanol - to - olefins (MTO) industry was mediocre, with regional differences in operating rates. Traditional downstream industries generally had weak demand, with most industries' loads declining. In the short term, the demand side will remain weak and needs the resumption of downstream plants, the release of terminal demand, or favorable policies [2] Inventory - This week, methanol inventory increased at a high level, and the pressure to reduce inventory has not been alleviated. Inland enterprise inventory has been increasing for four weeks, and port inventory also rose. Although the unloading of foreign vessels was smooth, the提货 volume in some warehouses decreased. Overall, the current inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction has eased but not fundamentally improved [2] Methanol Profit - This week, the profits of methanol and its downstream industrial chain showed obvious differentiation. Methanol - end profits improved slightly, while most downstream industries were still under pressure. The losses of coal - based and natural - gas - based methanol production processes narrowed, and only the profit of coke - oven - gas - based production decreased slightly but remained profitable. Most downstream industries saw increased losses, and only a few products like glacial acetic acid and MTBE had improved profits [2] Politics - This week, the political situation in Iran was tense both domestically and internationally. Domestically, there were sporadic demonstrations due to rising prices and currency depreciation, and the situation was gradually stabilizing. Internationally, the US and Israel were accused of interfering in Iran's internal affairs, and Iran's military, president, and permanent representative to the UN strongly responded [2] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, the strategy is "oscillating with a slight upward bias"; for arbitrage, it is to "wait and see". Key factors to watch include downstream demand, olefin procurement, spring maintenance, and geopolitics [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to be strong, but the fluctuation may be intense due to factors such as low probability of Fed rate - cut in January and risk - control measures from exchanges. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed's loose cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand from central banks, institutions, and residents will drive the long - term upward shift of the gold price center. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - On January 9, 2026, London gold spot was at $4473.61/oz, London silver spot at $77.24/oz, COMEX gold at $4483.10/oz, and COMEX silver at $77.00/oz. The price of AU2602 was 1006.48 yuan/g, and AG2602 was 18757 yuan/kg. The price of AU (T + D) was 1003.45 yuan/g, and AG (T + D) was 18764 yuan/kg. Compared with January 8, the price increases were 0.9%, 1.0%, 0.9%, 1.2%, 0.9%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. - The price difference and ratio data showed various changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 3.03 yuan/g on January 9, with a 23.7% change compared to January 8 [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 9, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16308.47495 tons. The COMEX gold non - commercial long - position was 274435 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 46803 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long - position was 47384 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 18113 contracts. Compared with January 8, there were different percentage changes in these positions [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 9, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 97653 kg, with no change from January 8. SHFE silver inventory was 620262 kg, a 2.73% decrease. COMEX gold inventory was 36311918 troy ounces, a 0.21% decrease, and COMEX silver inventory was 439740503 troy ounces, a 0.62% decrease [3]. 3.4 Market Review - On January 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.68% to 1006.48 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.9% to 18731 yuan/kg [3]. 3.5 Factor Analysis - The lower - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in December, along with downward revisions of October and November data, indicate a cooling US labor market. The intensifying protests in Iran, Trump's radical remarks on Greenland, and strong safe - haven demand have pushed up precious metal prices. The short - term prices are expected to be strong, but the Fed's low probability of rate - cut in January and exchange risk - control measures may lead to high volatility. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the market is expected to improve, but the industry is still weak. Unilateral strategies can adopt a volatile mindset, and hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled. [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the fundamentals continue to be under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. There is a high risk of a decline despite policy support. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the spot market may start restocking after the futures rebound. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - For iron ore, the price has fallen back after hitting a resistance level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel - Weekend spot prices fluctuated little with light trading volume. The macro liquidity is abundant, and the commodity capital rotation logic remains valid. The iron ore price rose first, causing the basis to weaken and attracting cash-and-carry arbitrage. The iron production is increasing, and the pressure on plate destocking persists. The price has support at low levels. [2] - Strategies include using a range-bound approach for unilateral trading, rolling hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage, or using options to assist in spot procurement and sales. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market sentiment is changeable, leading to significant price fluctuations. The demand is affected by poor steel prices and low mill profits, and it is difficult to improve in the off-season. The supply is high despite low alloy plant profits. There are policy supports and cost pressures, but the outlook is uncertain. [3] - Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has shifted from a fifth-round price cut expectation to a 1 - 2 round price increase expectation. The futures market rose on Wednesday due to supply-side news. The long-term coal supply is expected to optimize. The industry data is weak in the off-season, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. [7] Iron Ore - The price fell after hitting a resistance level due to the resonance of the commodity index and market rumors. The valuation is moderately high, and there is inventory pressure. The steel demand has slightly declined, and the overall fluctuation is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines. [7] Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: On January 9th, the closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of far-month and near-month contracts of various products (such as RB2610, HC2610) are provided, along with cross-month spreads, price differences, and profit margins. [1] - Spot: On January 9th, the spot prices and price changes of various products (such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar) in different regions are presented, as well as basis values. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index broke through strongly and with heavy volume last week. With ample market capital, a new upward space has opened, and the bullish trend continues. In the short - term, the stock index is expected to maintain an upward pattern. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026. It is recommended that investors still focus on seizing opportunities to build long positions [9] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - **Interest Rate Changes**: DRO01 closed at 1.27% with a 0.32bp increase; DR007 at 1.47% with a - 0.13bp change; GC001 at 1.34% with a 22.50bp increase; GC007 at 1.53% with a 5.00bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.60% with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.35% with a 1.55bp increase; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.65% with a 0.43bp increase; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.88% with a - 0.17bp change; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.18% with a - 1.00bp change [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 286 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operation rate of 1.40%. There were 5288 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a single - day net withdrawal of 5002 billion yuan. This week, there are 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the central bank's open market, 4823 billion yuan, 3125 billion yuan, and 5288 billion yuan due from Monday to Wednesday respectively. There will also be 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases due on Thursday and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits due on Friday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: The closing prices and changes of major stock index futures are as follows: CSI 300 closed at 4759 with a 0.45% increase; IF current month at 4765 with a 0.6% increase; SSE 50 at 3134 with a 0.39% increase; IH current month at 3133 with a 0.4% increase; CSI 500 at 8057 with a 2.05% increase; IC current month at 8088 with a 2.5% increase; CSI 1000 at 8129 with a 1.98% increase; IM current month at 8160 with a 2.6% increase. In terms of volume, IF volume was 148342 with a 23.9% increase, IF open interest was 299215 with a 3.6% increase; IH volume was 53705 with a 19.8% increase, IH open interest was 92820 with a 1.8% increase; IC volume was 188896 with a 27.8% increase, IC open interest was 318610 with an 8.3% increase; IM volume was 247789 with a 26.4% increase, IM open interest was 393398 with a 5.1% increase [7] - **Market Review and Outlook**: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved 16 consecutive positive days and reached 4100 points, refreshing a more than 10 - year high. The market turnover exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan. After the holiday, the market trading volume significantly expanded, and sufficient funds boosted the strong rise of stock indexes. The reasons include low inter - bank capital interest rates, continuous inflow of incremental funds such as leveraged funds, and continuous expansion of market trading volume [8][9] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are as follows: IF basis rates are - 9.02% for the current - month contract, 1.10% for the next - month contract, 1.71% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.75% for the next - quarter contract; IH basis rates are 3.08% for the current - month contract, 0.44% for the next - month contract, - 0.08% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.81% for the next - quarter contract; IC basis rates are - 28.55% for the current - month contract, - 0.17% for the next - month contract, 1.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 5.44% for the next - quarter contract; IM basis rates are - 27.85% for the current - month contract, 3.41% for the next - month contract, 5.33% for the current - quarter contract, and 8.61% for the next - quarter contract [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PTA market is affected by the approaching off - season of demand, with falling prices and weakening spot basis. The MEG market is under pressure from increased supply and falling coal prices, but may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 416.2 yuan/barrel on January 8, 2026, to 432.7 yuan/barrel on January 9, 2026, an increase of 16.5 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread decreased by 97.91 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0571. PTA主力期价 rose 22 yuan/ton, while the spot price fell 35 yuan/ton. Spot and盘面加工费 decreased by 42.2 yuan/ton and 5.2 yuan/ton respectively. The主力基差 decreased by 7, and the number of PTA仓单 decreased by 534 [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 886 to 892, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 13 [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 rose 20 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased by 3.8 yuan/ton, MEG内盘 price fell 20 yuan/ton, and the主力基差 remained unchanged [2] - **Industry Chain开工情况**: PX and PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 87.87% and 77.40% respectively. MEG开工率 decreased by 0.16% to 60.71%, and聚酯负荷 decreased by 0.08% to 88.12% [2] - **Polyester Products**: In the polyester filament market, prices of POY, FDY decreased, while DTY remained unchanged. Cash flows of POY, FDY, DTY increased. The long - filament sales rate decreased by 4%. In the polyester staple fiber market, the price of 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased slightly, the cash flow increased by 32, and the short - fiber sales rate decreased by 6%. In the polyester chip market, the price of semi - light chip decreased, the cash flow increased, and the chip sales rate increased by 17% [2] Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000 - ton device of Sanfangxiang is restarting, and another 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance with decreasing load. Additional maintenance information includes Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu devices in December. Some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their device loads [2] Trading Recommendations - **PTA**: The PX market is at a critical node where speculative sentiment and fundamentals are intertwined. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester demand weakens seasonally, forming a negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts [2] - **MEG**: Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, and the inventory at East China ports remains at 750,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the MEG price lacks effective support. However, it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]