Group 1: Report Core View - The overall prices of platinum and palladium futures fell on December 31. The PT2606 contract dropped 12.04% to 527.25 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract dropped 5.26% to 425.2 yuan/gram. During the New Year's holiday, the prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly. It is expected that the domestic platinum and palladium prices will open higher on Monday. After recent adjustments, the basis of platinum and palladium has improved, and the internal and external price differences have narrowed but not returned to a reasonable level. In the short term, the spot prices of platinum and palladium are expected to gradually shift to range - bound fluctuations. In the long - term, with a supply gap in platinum and a supply - loose pattern in palladium, platinum can still be bought at low prices or use the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6] Group 2: Price and Fluctuation Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 527.25, previous value 589.85, down 10.61% [4] - Spot: Shanghai Gold Exchange - Pt9995 closing price: 511.5, previous value 565.12, down 9.49% [4] - Spot: Platinum (99.95%): 532, previous value 558, down 4.66% [4] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): 4.75, previous value - 31.85, down 114.91% [4] - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 425.2, previous value 447.45, down 4.97% [4] - Spot: Palladium (99.95%): 412, previous value 424, down 2.83% [4] - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 13.2, previous value - 23.45, down 43.71% [4] International 15 - Point Prices (USD/oz) - London spot platinum: 1947.6, previous value 2156.1, down 9.67% [4] - London spot palladium: 1538.22, previous value 1603.79, down 4.09% [4] - NYMEX platinum: 1970.9, previous value 2181.3, down 9.65% [4] - NYMEX palladium: 1583, previous value 1668.5, down 5.12% [4] Group 3: Price Difference and Ratio Internal and External 15 - Point Price Differences (yuan) - Guangzhou platinum - London platinum: 29.91, previous value 38.80, down 22.91% [4] - Guangzhou platinum - NYMEX platinum: 23.96, previous value 32.36, down 25.95% [5] - Guangzhou palladium - London palladium: 32.40, previous value 37.56, down 13.73% [5] - Guangzhou palladium - NYMEX palladium: 20.97, previous value 21.02, down 0.25% [5] Price Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.2400, previous value 1.3182, down 0.0782 [5] - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.2661, previous value 1.3444, down 0.0782 [5] Group 4: Inventory and Position Data Inventory (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: 652841, previous value 652841, no change [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: 210029, previous value 210029, no change [5] Position - NYMEX total position: platinum 90330, previous value 97095, down 6.97% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long position: platinum 23293, previous value 19343, down 16.96% [5] - NYMEX total position: palladium 22709, previous value 22061, up 2.94% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long position: palladium 978, previous value 122, down 87.53% [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market is caught in a tug - of - war between cost support and falling demand. The MEG price lacks effective support, but may be bolstered by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment intersects with fundamental factors [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 436.1 yuan/barrel on December 30, 2025, to 432.2 yuan/barrel on December 31, 2025, a decrease of 3.90 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased by 5.66 yuan/ton; PTA/SC increased by 0.0038; PTA主力期价 dropped by 34.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased by 7.1 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased by 21.1 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased by 4.0; PTA仓单数量 decreased by 726 [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 dropped by 44.0 yuan/ton; MEG -石脑油 decreased by 3.2 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 decreased by 13.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 remained unchanged [2] - **PX**: CFR中国PX remained at 894; PX -石脑油价差 increased by 5 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate remained at 86.28% [2] - **PTA**: The start - up rate decreased from 77.40% to 74.63%, a decrease of 2.77% [2] - **MEG**: The start - up rate increased from 60.58% to 61.76%, an increase of 1.18% [2] - **Polyester**: The load decreased from 88.10% to 88.81%, a decrease of 0.71% [2] 3.3 Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F decreased by 40.0; POY现金流 decreased by 31.0; FDY150D/96F decreased by 5.0; FDY现金流 increased by 4.0; DTY150D/48F remained unchanged; DTY现金流 increased by 9.0; 长丝产销 decreased by 10% [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased by 95; 涤短现金流 decreased by 86.0; 短纤产销 decreased by 5% [2] - **Polyester Chip**: 半光切片 decreased by 5.0; 切片现金流 increased by 4.0; 切片产销 decreased by 14% [2] 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted after shutting down early last week [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The US raided Venezuela, escalating geopolitical risks; OPEC+ stated that eight member countries will suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026 [2] - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026 [2] - Domestic PTA maintains high production, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. High gasoline spreads support aromatics. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, with high PTA consumption and increased market hoarding willingness [2][3] - Polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, but polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5100 to 5095, a drop of 5 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3694 to 3681, a drop of 13 [2] Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price decreased from 5144 to 5110, a drop of 34 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3847 to 3803, a drop of 44 [2] Short Fiber Market - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6640 to 6545, a drop of 95 [2] - Short fiber basis decreased from 86 to 70, a drop of 16 [2] - 2 - 3 spread decreased from 8 to 4, a drop of 12 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] Bottle Chip Market - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased by 35 yuan/ton on average, with a range of 6030 - 6100 yuan/ton [2] - PTA and bottle chip futures were closed, supply-side offers were stable with a slight increase, market negotiation was light, and downstream terminal demand was weak, but the negotiation focus shifted slightly upward [2] Other Product Price Changes - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10400 to 10450, an increase of 50 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3760 to 3905, an increase of 145 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16370 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15280 to 15315, an increase of 35 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn profit increased from 1192 to 1242, an increase of 50 [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - Direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95% [3] - Polyester short fiber production and sales increased from 55.00% to 57.00%, an increase of 2.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have suddenly changed, and the commodity market may experience new fluctuations. The Fed meeting minutes did not provide more information to boost market sentiment. Domestic policies are gradually taking effect, and new policies will be introduced to achieve a stable economic start. Geopolitical factors, such as the US's new actions against Venezuela, will disrupt commodities like crude oil and drive a phased rebound in energy prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities fluctuated. During the Christmas and New Year holidays, the news was relatively quiet, and market trading was dull [3] - **Overseas Factors** - The Fed meeting minutes showed internal disagreement on policy paths. The Fed has entered a "wait - and - see" policy stage, and future interest rate decisions will be more data - dependent [3] - The US manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 51.8, lower than November's 52.2 and the market expectation of 52, indicating a significant slowdown in manufacturing expansion [3] - US President Trump postponed the tariff increase plan for imported soft furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets on December 31, 2025 [3] - The US military's action in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, a geopolitical "black swan" event, briefly pushed up the risk premium of crude oil and stimulated safe - haven assets. However, the impact on oil prices is limited and unsustainable due to the global oil supply glut [3] - **Domestic Factors** - In December, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI all rose into the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate. There was an improvement in supply and demand, a continuation of the price recovery, and a return of the non - manufacturing business activity index to the expansion range [3] - The National Fiscal Work Conference in December 2025 implemented the fiscal policy tone, showing policy continuity and stability [3] - During the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the domestic consumption and travel markets had a strong start [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a notice on large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies in December 2025, optimizing support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms, and advancing 62.5 billion yuan in special treasury bond funds [3] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% in December 2025, but the number of opposing votes was the highest since 2019, revealing internal differences on the policy path [3] - **Manufacturing PMI**: The US manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 51.8, the lowest in five months, showing a slowdown in manufacturing expansion [3][10] - **Tariff Policy**: The US postponed the tariff increase on imported soft furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets [3][13] - **Geopolitical Event**: The US military action in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, affected the oil market, but the impact was limited due to the global oil supply surplus [3][16] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Index**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to the expansion range, with improvements in supply, demand, price, and business expectations [3][21] - **Fiscal Policy**: The National Fiscal Work Conference in December 2025 implemented the fiscal policy for 2026, showing policy continuity [3] - **Consumption and Travel**: The domestic consumption and travel markets had a strong start during the New Year's Day holiday in 2026 [3][27] - **Policy Optimization**: The equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies in 2026 were optimized in support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms, with 62.5 billion yuan in special treasury bond funds advanced [3][29][30] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Production**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace operating rates showed certain trends [33][37] - **Automobile Sales**: Automobile wholesale and retail data had specific changes [42][45] - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price index, fluctuated [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on PVC is bullish in the medium - to - long term, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The trading strategy is to go long on dips for single - side trading, and there is no arbitrage strategy at present [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro sentiment has improved, and the PVC market is expected to be range - bound with a slight upward bias. Although the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, factors such as improved profit margins, low valuations, and positive macro policies provide some upside support [3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply situation is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has made narrow adjustments, with no capacity exit, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The overall capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 78.63%, with a 1.40% week - on - week increase and a 1.81% year - on - year decrease. The increase in capacity utilization is mainly due to the resumption of production at some enterprises [3]. - **Demand**: The demand situation is bearish. Downstream demand has entered the off - season, with a decline in downstream开工. The开工 rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 35.60%, a 1.40% week - on - week decrease and a 2.47% year - on - year increase. The开工 rate of PVC profile enterprises has also decreased. The PVC glove industry has stable demand, and most enterprises' orders are scheduled until February 2026. In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 27.53 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.78% and a year - on - year increase of 29.64%, and the cumulative export from January to November increased by 47.17% year - on - year [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory situation is bearish. The PVC social inventory has increased by 0.43% week - on - week to 106.11 tons, and the inventory days of PVC production enterprises' factory warehouses have increased by 0.39% week - on - week [3]. - **Basis**: The basis is neutral, and the current basis is - 335 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: The profit situation is bullish. The profits of both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC have increased week - on - week. The average profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production enterprises has increased by 223 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises has increased by 134 yuan/ton [3]. - **Valuation**: The valuation is bullish as the price is at a historical low [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro policy is bullish. The macro sentiment is positive, the RMB is continuously appreciating, and there is an expectation of rising crude oil prices due to the US military action against Venezuela [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has been range - bound with a slight upward bias this week. The futures price has improved due to positive macro expectations, but the spot market remains weak. On the supply side, there are no new enterprises for maintenance, but the production of some calcium carbide - based enterprises is at a low level. After the end of maintenance at some enterprises, the production has increased slightly, leading to increased supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic downstream开工 has continued to decline, and the export orders have weakened as the export price has risen [6]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: After the end of maintenance, the production in the northwest region is high [34]. - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased [44]. - **Downstream Average开工 Rate**: The downstream开工 rate has declined, including the开工 rates of pipes and profiles [69]. - **Export**: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. Although short - term price increases have weakened export enthusiasm, due to India's policy changes and increased demand in emerging markets, there is still great potential for future export growth [78][86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "bullish", and the trading strategy for the unilateral position is also "bullish" [4] Core View of the Report - The capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by the US has caused disturbances in the raw material supply, which supports the price of asphalt. Although short - term prices are expected to rebound strongly from the bottom, the upside is limited by weak demand and high inventory. In the future, the supply of Venezuelan oil may increase, but whether it can be exported to China involves Sino - US political games [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In December, the asphalt operating rate was 34.2%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.1%; production was 2.242 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; imports were 440,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.2%. In January, production is expected to be 2 million tons (a 10.8% month - on - month decrease) and imports 360,000 tons (an 18.2% month - on - month decrease). In 2026, the refinery operating rate will remain low, and imports will be further restricted [4] - **Demand**: Currently in the seasonal off - season, demand has declined month - on - month. In January, northern demand will basically stop, and southern demand will be stable. In 2026, demand growth will be limited, and overall demand will be weak [4] - **Inventory**: Currently, domestic asphalt refinery inventory is 612,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%, and social inventory is 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. In January, refinery inventory is expected to increase to 1.73 million tons (a 3% month - on - month increase), and social inventory may accumulate. From February to March, supply will exceed demand, and overall inventory pressure will gradually emerge [4] - **Cost**: Venezuelan oil is an important raw material for asphalt production in northern China. The shortage of raw materials will strongly support the asphalt price and crack spread, but the upside is still limited [4] - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is bullish. The trading strategy for the unilateral position is bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy [4] 2. Price - It presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong [6][7] 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - It shows the asphalt crack spread, the difference between asphalt and coker feedstock, and the basis in major regions [13][16] 4. Supply - It shows the production, capacity utilization, and maintenance loss volume of asphalt in different regions and time periods [18][22][35] 5. Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong and the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt [38][41] 6. Inventory - It presents the refinery inventory, refinery inventory rate, and social inventory of asphalt in different regions and time periods [47][49][52] 7. Demand - It shows the asphalt shipment volume, downstream operating rate, and modified asphalt operating rate in different regions and time periods [56][58][64]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】 债期超长端弱势不改 樊梦真 从业资格证号：F3035483 投资咨询证号 ：Z0014706 报告日期：2026-1-5 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 主要观点 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 • 上周国债期货市场小幅走弱。市场交易主线围绕跨年资金面博弈与基本面预期分化展开。一方面，12月制造业PMI站上荣枯线一度引发债市调整，但随后市场意 识到经济修复的持续性仍需观察，尤其是11月工业企业利润同比降幅扩大至13.1%的数据，强化了基本面弱复苏的预期。另一方面，跨年资金仍有波澜，年前几 个交易日，资金价格大幅波动走高，尤其是31日。政策层面，财政部与发改委联合下达首批625亿元消费品以旧换新补贴资金，但补贴范围收窄、比例下调，市 场解读为财政政策发力更侧重精准性，而非大规模刺激，对债市供给冲击的担忧有所缓解。此外，央行四季度货币政策委员 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the non - ferrous metals sector has been strengthening. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. Copper prices may fluctuate, zinc prices are expected to range - bound, and nickel and stainless steel prices may run strongly in the short term [1][9][85][193] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel, and provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Positive. China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the Fed may cut interest rates [9] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Copper ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low [9] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed slightly, while those using long - term contracts have increased profits [9] - **Demand End**: Negative. High copper prices have led to a decline in downstream demand and a drop in the operating rate of refined copper rods [9] - **Inventory**: Negative. Global copper inventories have increased [9] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate. Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the existence of the US - copper premium have pushed up the copper price. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy is recommended [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed may cut interest rates, and China's manufacturing PMI has improved [85] - **Raw Material End**: Slightly positive. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the cost support for zinc prices is strong [85] - **Smelting End**: Negative. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase in January, and the domestic surplus pattern may gradually emerge [85] - **Demand End**: Negative. The operating rate of galvanizing has declined, and environmental protection warnings may affect the operating rate [85] - **Inventory**: Negative. Although the social inventory has decreased, the inventory transfer trend is expected to reverse [85] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to range - bound. The cost center of zinc smelting is stable, and the domestic surplus expectation may gradually appear, but the short - term macro - sentiment is still positive [85] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for unilateral trading; conduct long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [85] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle continues, and China has implemented relevant policies. However, geopolitical risks have resurfaced [193] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production, and domestic port inventories are decreasing [193] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel has declined slightly, and the production of nickel - iron and stainless steel has also been affected [193] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the demand for new energy has weakened [193] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The global nickel inventory is at a high level, although the accumulation speed has slowed down [193] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The nickel price may run strongly in the short term, but there is a risk of correction in the long term. The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly [193] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for short - term trading for nickel; for stainless steel, go long on dips for short - term trading, and enterprises can wait for opportunities to sell short for hedging [193]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", with short - term disk having no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of caustic soda this week shows a neutral trend. Maintenance has decreased, production has increased, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward next week. Demand is also neutral, with a decline in alumina start - up and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory is bearish, with an increase in factory - warehouse inventory and a decrease in sample warehouse inventory in some regions. The basis is neutral, the profit is bearish, the valuation is bullish, and the macro - policy has no significant impact [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased by 0.3 tons to 840,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, domestic chlor - alkali equipment will have both maintenance and restart, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward [3] - **Demand**: Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 87.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% [3] - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of 200,000 tons or more of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.83% and a year - on - year increase of 72.72%. The inventory ratio of sample warehouse in the central and eastern regions decreased [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 85, and the futures price is at a premium [3] - **Profit**: The theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased, the price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was - 6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 88% [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, and the absolute price of the disk is low. The near - month contract is slightly at a premium [3] - **Macro Policy**: There is currently no significant impact [3] - **Investment View**: Short - term disk has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating. There is no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategy for now. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and global economic recession [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the Shandong spot market was weak, and the futures market was oscillating strongly. The price of liquid chlorine was higher than that in the first half of the year, first falling and then rising, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. After the New Year's Day, the price of 32% caustic soda decreased to varying degrees, and the high - concentration caustic soda had not stabilized. Downstream demand was weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market was still poor [6] - The total open interest increased, with an increase in positions in the far - month contracts [24] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising [32] - **Upstream Production**: Start - up remains stable at a high level, and inventory is being destocked [35] - **Main Production Area Production**: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased [38] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [39] - **Downstream Price**: Alumina price has declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [42] - **Alumina**: Alumina start - up has recovered, and inventory has increased. The supply - demand balance of alumina has been repaired, port bauxite inventory has increased, and alumina profit is good and stable year - on - year [54][64] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum start - up remains stable but is lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum has entered the seasonal off - season, and start - up has begun to decline [65] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: Start - up rate has rebounded [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the US military strike on Venezuela, the uncertainty of the international situation has significantly increased, which is expected to cause some disturbances to the prices of risk assets such as A - shares. If the conflict escalates, the market risk appetite may be further pressured [3]. - In the long - term, in 2026, the stock index is expected to continue to rise on the basis of 2025. Macroeconomic policies continue to exert force, and the moderate rebound of inflation may help improve corporate profit expectations. Capital market reform policies are expected to bring incremental funds to A - shares, and the role of Central Huijin as a "quasi - stabilization fund" will also support the market. Investors can wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear and the market risk appetite to recover before choosing to build long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The improvement was driven by the increase in working days and the effect of policy - based financial tools. On January 1, 2026, 62.5 billion yuan of national subsidy funds were issued, with specific subsidy plans for various products [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The new round of "national subsidies" is beneficial to consumption and equipment renewal, which is positive for the market [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The US military strike on Venezuela has increased geopolitical risks, which may affect China's heavy oil processing and related downstream industries and increase the risk of economic and trade cooperation in Latin America. It will also cause disturbances to the prices of risk assets such as A - shares [3]. - **Liquidity**: Recently, the market trading volume has increased, and the margin trading balance has also risen. As of December 30, the A - share margin trading balance was 254.729 billion yuan, an increase of 13.57 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Short - term investment should be cautious, while long - term investment can consider going long after the geopolitical situation stabilizes [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 fell 0.59% to 4629.9; the Shanghai 50 fell 0.47% to 3031.1; the CSI 500 rose 0.09% to 7465.6; the CSI 1000 fell 0.13% to 7595.3 [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased last week. For example, the trading volume of CSI 1000 futures decreased by 44.23%, and the open interest decreased by 5.63% [13]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of December 31, all contracts of stock index futures were at a discount, with different discount rates for different contracts [18]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50 was at a high historical level, while the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at a low historical level [22]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On the last trading day of 2025, the central bank's open - market operations continued to expand significantly and maintained a net injection. However, affected by the New Year's Day holiday, the main repurchase rates of deposit - taking institutions generally increased [24]. - **Margin Trading and Market Volume**: As of December 30, the A - share margin trading balance increased, and the financing purchase amount accounted for 11.8% of the total market turnover, at a high level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume last week increased compared with the previous week [34]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In 2025, GDP growth showed certain fluctuations, and indicators such as industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social consumer goods retail also had different trends. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs improved in December [37]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market showed different trends in various indicators such as housing prices, sales volume, and investment [39]. - **Consumption**: The retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises above the designated size showed different growth rates in different categories [42]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different performances [51][52]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - **Macro Policy**: The government has introduced a series of policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to support economic development, consumption, and the real estate market [56]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In November 2025, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index rose, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, and the number of new non - farm jobs increased. The PCE and CPI growth rates also changed [67][70]. - **Trump's Policies**: Trump's team has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have a certain impact on international trade and the global economic situation [76]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of December 31, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels [84]. - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors had different price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book ratios, and their historical percentile levels also varied [88].