投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现实博弈，低位震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-10 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）东北产地仍面临集中上量压力，华北质量偏差的潮粮也面临保管压力，建议关注11-12月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳 中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预期；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年9月，全国工业饲料产量3036万吨，环比增长3.4%，同比增长5.0%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为33.6%， 同比下降2.4个百分点。（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但目前养殖利润呈现亏损，国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重， | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需有支撑，价格下行空间有限 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-10 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:需求有韧性，价格偏低 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 产量下滑。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.91万吨，比30日-1.33%。行业开工率为75%，比30日-1.35个百分点；行业产能利用率为79.56%，比30 | | | | 日-1.07个百分点。本周1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，4条燃煤产线集中停产，供应量环比下降明显。下周暂无产线存点火或者冷修预期，预估 | | | | 下周浮法玻璃日产量维持稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 旺季需求有支撑，近期产销随着价格波动而波动。但总体看来，下游需求仍有较强韧性。 | | 库存 | 偏多 | 库存去化，企业库存6313.6万重箱，环比-265.4万重箱，环比-4.03%，同比+29.05%。折库存天数27.1天，较上期-0.9天。 | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | （1）本周基差震荡；（2）01-05 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain strong. However, attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of Sino - US games and the possible fluctuations caused by the release of important domestic economic data [9]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the lack of effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the new normal of the marginal decline in the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt - driven models, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue under the support of a loose monetary cycle [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views - **Weekly Market Review**: Early in the week, market sentiment was relatively stable, with the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showing mixed gains and losses and small fluctuations. On Thursday and Friday, the market was weaker, and contracts of all maturities generally closed down. In general, long - term contracts (such as 30 - year and 10 - year) performed slightly weaker than short - term contracts [4]. - **Incremental Information**: In October 2025, the central bank resumed open - market operations of buying and selling Treasury bonds, achieving a net investment of 20 billion yuan, which increased market demand and smoothed market fluctuations. To address the liquidity gap of about 2 trillion yuan in November, the central bank conducted equivalent roll - overs of 70 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements and may increase the roll - over of 6 - month repurchase agreements. In October 2025, in US dollar terms, exports were $305.353 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%; imports were $215.279 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.0% with a growth slowdown of 6.4 percentage points compared to September and a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%; the trade surplus was $90.07 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the surplus was lower than market expectations [4]. Part Two: Liquidity Tracking The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), reverse repurchase rates, capital prices (deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, etc.), R007&DR007 trading volume and spreads, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates, excess reserve ratios, LPR, deposit reserve ratios, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][11][13]. Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking The content shows various charts of Treasury bond futures arbitrage indicators, including basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, but no specific text analysis is provided [42][45][54].

国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-10 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 基本面表现疲弱，纯苯苯乙烯下行 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：基本面疲弱，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，苯乙烯-石脑油价差缩窄至217美元，苯乙烯-苯价差仅128美元，均处于亏损区间，非一体化的生产利润依然是负的。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 港口累库，截至2025年11月3日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：12.1万吨，较上期库存8.5万吨累库3.6万吨，环比上升42.35%；较去年同期库存10.1万 | | | | 吨累库2.0万吨，同比累库19.80%。由于利润收缩，供给端检修传闻有所增加，海外由于衍生品的低开工率，需求仍在下降。 | | 库存 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is weak and volatile [3]. Core Viewpoint - Crude oil prices have dropped from short - term highs, and asphalt has continued to decline due to poor fundamentals. The supply and demand of asphalt in China have both declined this week. The overall inventory is in a destocking pattern, and the cost is influenced by the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The overall trend of asphalt continues to follow the fluctuation of crude oil [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November, the production plan of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The planned output of domestic asphalt refineries in November 2025 was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons. This week, both supply and demand of domestic asphalt declined. The decline in supply was mainly due to the active reduction of production capacity by some refineries and the suspension of production in some others [3]. - **Demand**: Affected by the capital situation and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China were sluggish. The demand in the north gradually stopped, and the downstream demand in the south increased and decreased intermittently. The overall demand declined. This week's total shipment volume was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1%. It is expected that the industry's shipment volume will further decline next week [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, the factory and warehouse inventories in various regions of China showed a mixed trend of increase and decrease, and the overall inventory continued to be destocked. The destocking performance in East China was particularly prominent [3]. - **Cost**: At the beginning of this week, international oil prices rose slightly for three consecutive days due to multiple positive factors. In the later part of the week, oil prices fell for two consecutive days due to concerns about interest rate cuts, rising risk - aversion sentiment, and other factors. Overall, the oil price at the end of this week dropped compared with last week, and the average price this week also decreased compared with last week [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is weak and volatile. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is weak and volatile, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3]. 2. Price - The document provides the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China) from 2025/01 to 2025/11 [5]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The document shows the asphalt crack spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [15]. - **Basis**: It presents the basis of asphalt in main regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024/01 to 2025/10 [16]. 4. Supply - **Production Plan Expectation**: It shows the monthly production plan and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in North China, South China, Shandong, and East China in different years [19][23][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It provides the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][35][37]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt production in China from 2018 to 2025 [42]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It provides the price, premium/discount, port inventory in China and Shandong of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [49][50]. 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [54][57]. - **Social Inventory**: It presents the social inventory in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volume of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [63]. - **Downstream开工率**: It provides the开工率 of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [66][67][69]. - **Modified Asphalt开工率**: It shows the开工率 of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [72].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 股指期权数据日报 行情概况 投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/11/10 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 上证50 47.67 3038. 3455 -0. 21 1198. 48 5075. 74 212. 50 沪深300 4678. 7944 -0. 31 7541. 878 267. 89 中证1000 -0. 13 4196. 11 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认沾期权 日成交量 期权持企量 认购期权 认洁期权 持仓量 指数 持仓量 (万张) (万张) 持仓量 成交量 成交量 PCR PCR 上证50 0. 73 2. 45 1. 38 0. 78 7. 29 3. 08 1. 07 4. 21 0. 73 沪深300 9. 41 5. 44 3. 98 20. 06 9. 40 0. 88 10. 66 中证1000 23. 14 12. 17 0. 90 31. 29 14. 79 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market in 2026 will see the market balance shift towards shippers due to intensified supply - demand imbalance, with continuous decline in freight rates and key opportunities in supply chain optimization and data - based procurement [5]. - In November, shipping capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15% compared to before. The overall TPBB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. Market demand in November remains healthy after the pre - peak season booking rush [5]. - The EC market is in a weak oscillation mainly because MSK's late - November quotes are significantly lower than other airlines. Short - term macro - level positives, capacity control, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are falsified, the main contracts are likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is currently at 1495, down 3.59% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1058, up 3.60%. Different regional routes show varying trends, such as SCFI - US West down 16.43%, SCFIS - US West up 9.12%, etc [3][4]. - **Contract Index**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values, previous values, and corresponding percentage changes are provided. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1376.1, down 2.69% [4]. - **Contract Positions**: Information on contract positions such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., including current positions, previous positions, and changes in positions is given. For example, the current position of EC2606 is 1452, a decrease of 3 from the previous value [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads for 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are 220.0, 647.4, and 427.4 respectively, with corresponding changes compared to the previous values [4]. Market News and Analysis - CMA states that no route can replace the Suez Canal, will continue to operate through it, and expects to increase voyages via the canal in the future [5]. - Maersk starts to focus on price competition and a strategy of service premium from Q8 [5]. - Maersk's CEO Vincent is optimistic about returning to the Red Sea and mentions that the supply chain will fundamentally change due to Trump's tariffs [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The short - term market is supported by macro - level positives, capacity control, and price - support expectations. It is recommended to buy on dips for the main contracts, while closely monitoring suspension of voyages and airlines' loading rates [6]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7].

【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-10 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :现货价格持稳，盘面震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周国内聚丙烯产量79.65万吨，相较上周的78.92万吨增加0.73万吨，涨幅0.92%；相较去年同期的66.9万吨增加12.75万吨，涨幅19.06%。（2）聚丙 | | | | 烯平均产能利用率77.78%，环比上升0.72%；中石化产能利用率75.77%，环比下降0.19%。 | | | | （1）平均开工上涨0.52个百分点至53.14%。前期部分企业因原料波动或检修导致开工滞后，电商双十一备货拉动终端需求，BOPP、透明包装、物流包装 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 等应用领域订单小增，相关行业开工负荷稳 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: "Precious Metals Weekly Report (AU, AG): Precious metals gradually stabilize and may continue to build a volatile platform" [1] - Report date: November 10, 2025 - Core view: In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain range - bound, but there is still upward potential in the long term. The underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation by buying on dips [5] Group 2: Market and Influencing Factors - Market performance last week: Precious metals generally stabilized and built a volatile platform. In the first half of the week, the precious metal prices were affected by the rising US dollar index and the Fed's cautious attitude towards a December rate cut. Later, the prices rebounded due to increased market uncertainty and the alleviation of US dollar liquidity tensions [3] - Key influencing factors: The US dollar index breaking through 100, the Fed's attitude towards a December rate cut, the US employment market situation, consumer confidence, the US government shutdown, and the potential impact of Trump's tariff rulings [3][5] Group 3: Data Tracking Gold - related data - London spot gold: $4000.289/ounce, down $2.401 (- 0.06%) from the previous period [4] - Shanghai gold futures: 921.26 yuan/gram, down 0.66 yuan (- 0.07%) from the previous period [4] - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings: 1042.06 tons, up 2.86 tons (0.28%) from the previous period [4] Silver - related data - London spot silver: $48.3260/ounce, down $0.3302 (- 0.68%) from the previous period [4] - Shanghai silver futures: 11484 yuan/kg, up 43 yuan (0.38%) from the previous period [4] - Silver SLV - ETF holdings: 15089 tons, down 101 tons (- 0.67%) from the previous period [4] Group 4: Outlook and Strategy - Short - term outlook: Precious metal prices are expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff rulings [5] - Long - term outlook: The precious metals bull market's underlying logic remains solid. The continuous rise in the US federal government debt, the Fed's rate - cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued central bank gold purchases will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5] - Strategy: It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation by buying on dips [5] Group 5: Central Bank Gold Purchases - China's central bank: Increased gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month. As of the end of October, China's gold reserves were reported at 74.09 million ounces (about 2304.457 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) [89] - Global central banks: Net gold purchases of about 633.6 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. The third - quarter purchases increased by 27.85% quarter - on - quarter to 219.9 tons [89]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profitability is poor. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the short - term domestic futures market is expected to follow the US market and continue to be volatile and slightly stronger. However, the expected global soybean supply surplus situation will limit the rebound height of the futures market. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report and South American weather [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **Basis Data**: On November 7th, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Dalian was 62, down 20; the basis of 43% soybean meal in Tianjin was 2, down 10; in Rizhao it was - 18, down 10; in Zhangjiagang it was 2, up 10; in Dongguan it was - 58, down 10; in Zhanjiang it was - 18; in Fangcheng it was - 38, down 10. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 91, up 23 [6]. - **Spread Data**: The RM1 - 5 spread was 123, down 10; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market in Guangdong was 300, and the spread in the futures market (main contract) was 519, unchanged [7]. 3.2 Supply - related Data - **USDA Forecast**: The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 33.5 bushels may be lowered, and the export forecast has room for an upward adjustment. The US soybean supply - demand balance is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the next USDA supply - demand report [8][9]. - **Brazilian Soybean Planting**: As of November 1st, according to CONAB data, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1%, up from 34.4% last week, compared with 53.3% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 64.7%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil in the next few weeks and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [10]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The purchase progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [11]. 3.3 Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The downstream of soybean meal has been cautious in recent transactions, and the pick - up performance has declined [11]. 3.4 Inventory - related Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and inventory is expected to start declining in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [11]. 3.5 Exchange Rate, Basis Price, and Profit - related Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0837, and the futures market profit from importing Brazilian soybeans was 145 yuan/ton [7].