1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market currently lacks effective drivers, and international oil prices are falling weakly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, and the supply - demand situation remains bearish. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating and weak performance [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Bearish. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. For example, EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,585 million barrels per day, an increase of 267 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Neutral. Different institutions have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025. EIA raises the forecast, OPEC keeps it unchanged, and IEA slightly lowers the growth rate forecast [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: Bearish. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and there were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Bearish. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which may intensify concerns about market oversupply [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Neutral. There are some geopolitical events, but they have limited impact on the oil market for now [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: Neutral. There are signs of economic weakness in the U.S., and the market has expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [3] 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Main Oil Product Prices**: SC crude oil increased by 0.41% week - on - week, Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.71%. There were also corresponding price changes in gasoline, diesel, and other oil products [5] - **Inventory and Other Data**: There were changes in the inventories of various oil products in the U.S., Europe, and Singapore, and the operating rates of refineries in different regions also changed [5] 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: International oil prices fell weakly this week. As of November 7, WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.04 dollars per barrel (-1.71%), Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.88 dollars per barrel (-1.36%), and SC crude oil futures rose by 1.90 yuan per barrel (+0.41%) [7] - **Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10] - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread declined [24] - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [32][43] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In September 2025, global crude oil production increased. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all reported an increase in production compared to August [64] - **Non - OPEC Production**: The production of non - OPEC countries increased [66] - **U.S. Production**: As of the week ending October 31, U.S. domestic crude oil production increased to 13.651 million barrels per day. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased to 548 as of the week ending November 8 [89] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels, and Cushing inventory increased by 30,000 barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [90][99] - **U.S. Demand**: Gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased [117] - **China Demand**: The refinery capacity utilization rate increased slightly. For example, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 0.15 percentage points compared to last week [126][134] - **China Refinery Profits**: The gross profit of major refineries declined, and the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel also declined [135] 3.5 Macro - finance - **U.S. Treasury Yield and Dollar Index**: The U.S. Treasury yield rebounded, and the dollar index oscillated [148] 3.6 CFTC Positioning - The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [157]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force and the pressure of old warehouse receipts is significant. It is recommended to conduct a 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage [4]. - The pulp fundamentals remained stable this week, with the futures price fluctuating at a low level. The problem of old warehouse receipts has not been resolved, and it is expected that the downstream futures market will still be based on old - warehouse - receipt trading, suppressing the near - month contract prices. The 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy should be maintained [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The import quotations of Chile's Arauco company show a decrease in coniferous pulp and an increase in broad - leaf pulp. In October 2025, China's pulp production was 2.084 million tons, a 10.2% month - on - month increase, indicating a relatively loose supply [4]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers have not increased significantly. The inventory of finished paper is high, and paper mills maintain just - in - time replenishment, which has not boosted pulp prices [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.008 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% month - on - month decline, showing a narrow - range destocking trend [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The pulp futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The total futures contract positions increased by 4.80% to 341,276, and the main - contract positions increased by 10.63% to 171,788 as of November 7, 2025 [23]. - **Spot Market**: Some spot prices' basis increased slightly. The prices of coniferous pulp silver star and broad - leaf pulp goldfish remained stable week - on - week and month - on - month. The price of coniferous pulp cloth needle increased by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week and 100 yuan/ton month - on - month. In October, the coniferous pulp's overseas quotation decreased, while the broad - leaf pulp's price increased [16][19]. 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased. In October 2025, the total pulp import volume was 2.952 million tons, a 11.27% increase; the coniferous pulp import volume was 691,000 tons, a 12.54% increase; the broad - leaf pulp import volume was 1.356 million tons, a 7.79% increase; and the broad - leaf wood chip import volume was 1.471 million tons, a 16.84% increase [5]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. Overseas, the inventory of coniferous pulp mills increased, while that of broad - leaf pulp mills remained stable [34][37]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of white cardboard increased by 3.7% month - on - month, while the prices of other paper types remained stable. In October 2025, the production of paper products increased month - on - month, with double - offset paper production increasing by 4.8%, copper - plate paper by 2.4%, tissue paper by 0.9%, and white cardboard by 1%. The inventory of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also increased to varying degrees [42][47]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis**: As of November 7, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle decreased by 112 yuan/ton to - 444 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shandong silver star decreased by 202 yuan/ton to 106 yuan/ton. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 12 - 1 month - to - month spread widened, reaching - 484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton from the previous week. - **Import Profit**: As of November 7, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.4 yuan, and the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was 37 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index is affected by macro - disturbances and the advanced full pricing of peak - season expectations, leading to a volatile market. The short - term macro - positive factors, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Effects** - **Spot Freight Rates**: They have a negative impact. In late November, MSK quoted 2250, HPL 3150, CMA 3200, YML 2550, and ONE 2600. Airlines' price - increase calls are showing obvious differentiation [5] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They have a neutral impact. In November, capacity has recovered, with available capacity on various US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15% compared to before. The overall TPEB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. After the pre - peak - season concentrated booking rush affected by the expected tariff increase on November 1st, the market demand in November remained healthy [5] - **Capacity Supply**: It has a positive impact. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [5] - **Demand**: It has a neutral impact. The key influencing factors are the realization of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airlines' strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market is expected to oscillate [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Part Two: Price - The report presents price trends of various container shipping routes such as the European line index, US - West line index, and US - East line index through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [9] 3.3 Part Two: Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [15] - **Delivery Volume**: It shows the delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [18][19] - **Future Delivery**: It shows the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods through charts [24][26] - **Ship Prices**: It includes new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities, and presents their trends over the years through charts [31][33][37] - **Existing Capacity**: It shows the existing capacity, age structure, idle and retrofit ratios of container ships through charts [46][49][53] 3.4 Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule**: It shows the total capacity deployment and the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC) on the Shanghai - European basic port route through charts [61][63][65] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It shows the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships and capacity in TEU, as well as the average age and time for installation through charts [71][72][75] - **Average Speed**: It shows the average speed of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [76] - **Idle Capacity**: It shows the idle capacity, idle - ship number, and idle - capacity ratio of container ships through charts [79][80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating." The report suggests that the industry may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material prices have strong support, the mid - stream inventory has increased slightly, the downstream demand remains stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. With the improvement of short - term commodity market sentiment, the natural rubber market may show a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan first fell and then rose, while in Hainan, they were adjusted downward due to weather disturbances. In Thailand, the glue price in the south increased, and the cup - rubber price in the northeast decreased. In Vietnam, raw material prices were relatively firm due to typhoon - induced rain [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises was stable, and it is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week, with potential drag from individual enterprises' maintenance plans [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, with an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory and a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory. The warehouse - receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber also increased [3][108]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is bullish. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread both widened [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber, domestic concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber was in a loss state, but the loss of Yunnan whole - milk rubber delivery profit improved [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The short - term Sino - US tariff policy has been postponed, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. The short - term market may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage, while paying attention to production area weather disturbances, reserve policy changes, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely this week. They first fell and then rose. As of November 7, the RU main contract closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,035 yuan/ton, down 1.67% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices showed an oscillating performance [9]. - **Position**: The RU position was low, and the NR position decreased. The RU - NR spread rebounded [16][23][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting rubber production [40]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices were firm. The prices of glue and cup - rubber in Thailand and glue in China showed different trends [50]. - **Production in Producing Countries**: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). China's natural rubber imports from January to September were 4.7172 million tons (+19.65%) [73][92]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social "inventory" increased slightly. As of November 2, 2025, the social inventory of natural "rubber" was 1.056 million tons, and the inventory in Qingdao also increased [100][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: Tire capacity utilization remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization of full - steel "tire" sample enterprises was 65 "37%", and that of semi - "steel" tire sample enterprises was 72.89%. It is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week [118]. " - **Down "stream Tire Inventory**: Tire inventory in Shandong decreased slightly [119]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in October, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [137]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to September, tire exports were 7.28 million tons (+5.0%) [139][146]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk " "rubber" was in a loss state [148]. - **Futures - Spot Spread "**: The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [169].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the A - share market lacks a clear upward trend due to a relative policy window period, with trading volume remaining low and stock indices continuing to fluctuate. The continuous shutdown risk of the US government increases the adjustment pressure on US stocks and impacts the domestic equity market, but the intraday trend may be repaired by domestic liquidity and market sentiment, providing space for short - term stock index operations. In the medium - to - long - term, the market is expected to have further upward potential, but the progress will be gradual. New driving factors such as the further release of overseas liquidity or substantial improvement signals in the domestic fundamentals will be the key to driving the market up. The investment view is to choose the opportunity to go long [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact on Stock Indices** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In October, affected by tariff policies, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative for the first time since February 2025. Exports to non - ASEAN economies were generally poor, and labor - intensive products and some mechanical and electrical products saw significant declines. The "14th Five - Year Plan" has been implemented, and the domestic policy is in a relatively quiet period, with a negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed seven major economic development goals and twelve major deployments for the next five years, with a neutral - to - positive impact on stock indices [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The continuous shutdown of the US government has led to a decline in US stocks from their highs, which has a certain impact on China's technology sector, with a neutral - to - negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Liquidity**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased compared with the previous week. The current macro - level is in a policy window period, and the A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with a neutral impact on stock indices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Choose the opportunity to go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.8; the Shanghai 50 rose 0.89% to 3038.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 7541.9 [5]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: The weekly returns of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the corresponding indices were 0.57%, 0.68%, - 0.30%, and 0.37% respectively [6]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (5%), steel (4.4%), basic chemicals (3.5%), banks (2.8%), and comprehensive (2.6%) led the gains, while computer (- 2.5%), pharmaceutical biology (- 2.4%), automobile (- 1.2%), food and beverage (- 0.6%), and household appliances (- 0.5%) led the losses [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest of Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased last week. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 futures decreased by 9.37%, and the open interest decreased by 5.03% [11]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of November 7, different contracts of stock index futures showed different premium or discount rates. For example, the IF2511 contract had an annualized discount of 6.46%, and the IH2511 contract had an annualized premium of 0.78% [13]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50, and between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at different historical percentile levels [17]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net withdrawal of 15722 billion yuan. Next week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire [24]. - **Margin Trading and Short Selling**: As of November 6, the margin trading and short - selling balance of A - shares was 24908.9 billion yuan, an increase of 124.2 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 12.6%, at the 98.5% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. - **Market Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 2605.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. - **Risk Premium Rate**: As of November 7, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 5.19, at the 47.8% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macroeconomic Indicators**: In October, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative, and the manufacturing PMI decreased. Various economic indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends [33][42]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market showed different trends in indicators such as housing prices, transaction volumes, and investment [35]. - **Consumption**: Different consumer goods showed different growth rates in sales. For example, the sales of some categories such as sports and entertainment products and jewelry showed relatively high growth, while the sales of petroleum products and building materials showed negative growth [38]. - **Manufacturing**: The manufacturing industry's PMI and its sub - indicators showed a decline in October, and different manufacturing sub - industries had different performance in production, orders, and prices [39][42]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Infrastructure investment showed different trends in different sub - sectors, with some sectors showing growth and some showing decline [40]. - **Earnings of Major Broad - Based Indices and Industries**: Different broad - based indices and industries had different performance in net profit growth and return on equity [47][48]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance. For example, policies have been introduced to promote service consumption, optimize real estate purchase restrictions, and provide fiscal subsidies for consumer loans [52][53][54]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators**: In October, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index increased, and the unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls showed different trends [62]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: In September, the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year growth rates decreased, and the CPI and core CPI year - on - year growth rates increased slightly [66]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff - related measures, which may have an impact on international trade and the global economy [68].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of logs is bearish, with an increase in the number of departing vessels and shipping volume from New Zealand in October 2025. The demand, inventory, and valuation are neutral. After the expectation of rising sea freight failed, the log price dropped significantly, and the drivers in the fourth quarter are bearish. Considering the current low valuation, shorting after a pullback can be considered [4]. - The near - month log contracts dropped significantly, while the far - month contracts were stable. The far - month contracts have limited further downside space after the sharp drop, and the near - month contracts continued to decline due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. Currently, the log spot is weak, and shorting after a rebound can be considered [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log vessels left the port, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month. The total shipping volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipping volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75% and a 2% increase from September [4][24]. - **Demand**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.41% week - on - week increase [4][32]. - **Valuation**: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: After the expectation of rising sea freight failed, the log price dropped significantly, and the drivers in the fourth quarter are bearish. Considering the current low valuation, shorting after a pullback can be considered [4]. 2. Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: The near - month log contracts dropped significantly, while the far - month contracts were stable. The far - month contracts have limited further downside space after the sharp drop, and the near - month contracts continued to decline due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. Currently, the log spot is weak, and shorting after a rebound can be considered [7]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log futures and spot prices showed that the spot was weak, and shorting after a rebound was considered [7]. - **Futures Positions**: As of November 7, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 23,242 lots, a 13.9% increase from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 18,027 lots, a 14.9% increase from the previous week [11]. 3. Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase and a 7.37% year - on - year decrease. From January to September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 18.016 million cubic meters, an 8.14% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, China imported about 1.4993 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 14.79% month - on - month increase and a 4.08% year - on - year increase. From January to September 2025, China imported about 13.502 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 0.74% year - on - year increase [21]. - **Shipping Volume from New Zealand**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log vessels left the port, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month. The total shipping volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipping volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75% and a 2% increase from September [4][24]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.41% week - on - week increase; the radiation pine inventory was 2.36 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.72% week - on - week increase; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 9.09% week - on - week decrease; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of provincial inventory, as of October 31st, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.883 million cubic meters, a 0.97% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 822,594 cubic meters, a 4.54% increase from the previous week [32]. - **Outbound Volume**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a 9.89% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, a 4.29% increase from the previous week [35]. - **Downstream**: As of November 7, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/cubic meter, a 20 - yuan/cubic - meter week - on - week decrease; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 3.8 yuan/cubic meter, a 15 - yuan/cubic - meter week - on - week increase; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - **Copper**: Due to high prices suppressing downstream demand and a decline in market risk appetite, copper prices are under pressure but the downside is expected to be limited. Short - term, copper prices are expected to adjust weakly, and it is recommended to do long - spread arbitrage on SHFE copper [8]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the US government shutdown and uncertainties in Indonesia's nickel - related policies, nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, there is still pressure from oversupply of primary nickel [89]. - **Stainless Steel**: With weak raw material prices, reduced steel mill production, and weak downstream demand, stainless steel futures will fluctuate weakly [90]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色金属价格监测 - Various有色金属 showed different price trends. For example, the US dollar index was at 99.5, with a daily decline of 0.15%, a weekly decline of 0.18%, and an annual decline of 8.24%. The price of industrial silicon was 9,220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.71%, a weekly increase of 1.32%, and an annual decrease of 16.07% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: China's exports declined in October, the US consumer confidence index hit a new low, and the US government shutdown continued, all of which were bearish for copper [8]. - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore rebounded slightly, but the tight supply pattern continued. The accident at Freeport's mine in Indonesia will lead to a decline in copper and gold production in 2026 [8]. - **Smelting End**: The losses of smelters using spot copper ore narrowed, while the profits of those using long - term contract copper ore increased. Domestic copper production continued to decline in October [8]. - **Demand End**: Although downstream demand improved slightly due to the decline in copper prices, the overall downstream copper product start - up rate in October decreased significantly [8]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign visible copper inventories increased, and global copper inventories continued to rise [8]. 3.3 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Nickel** - **Macro Factors**: The US government shutdown and weak domestic manufacturing PMI put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [89]. - **Raw Material End**: Indonesia restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was firm. The import of nickel ore from the Philippines decreased seasonally, and domestic port inventories decreased slightly [89]. - **Smelting End**: Pure nickel production was at a high level, but some enterprises planned to reduce production at the end of the year. Nickel iron prices were stable, and the demand for nickel sulfate increased [89]. - **Demand End**: The social inventory of stainless steel remained stable, and the demand for new energy vehicles was strong, increasing the demand for nickel sulfate [89]. - **Inventory**: Global nickel inventories continued to increase [89]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Production**: Domestic stainless steel production increased in October but is expected to decrease in November. The production of the 300 - series is also expected to decline slightly [133]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of stainless steel remained stable, with narrow inventory increases mainly in the 200 - series and 400 - series [139]. - **Supply and Demand**: The import of stainless steel increased slightly in September, while exports decreased. Overseas demand was weak, and the subsequent tariff policy was uncertain [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply - demand fundamentals show a pattern of oversupply. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, it is still at a low level. The cost - side support is insufficient, and the export is affected by policies and competition, making it difficult to increase significantly [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has increased slightly due to maintenance, and the production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 80.75%, a 2.49% increase from the previous period. The maintenance loss volume is 4.323 tons, a decrease of 0.684 tons from the previous period [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 42%, a 0.8% increase from last week. The start - up rate of PVC profile enterprises has increased by 1.96%. The capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. The export from January to September has increased, with a cumulative export of 292.16 tons [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of November 6, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.13% to 104.16 tons, with an increase of 26.42% year - on - year. The inventory in the East China region has increased, while that in the South China region has decreased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 111 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of both PVC production processes have decreased. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous period. The average profit of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short at high levels; for arbitrage, there is no recommendation [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has oscillated weakly this week. The supply is still at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The spot prices in different regions are: 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton in East China, 4650 - 4710 yuan/ton in South China, 4420 - 4550 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 4580 - 4640 yuan/ton in Shandong [6] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the end of maintenance, the output in the Northwest has rebounded [35] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. Factories in various regions have reduced their inventory [43][53] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The average downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, with the pipe start - up rate at 42% and the profile start - up rate at 37.83% [3][67] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to policies and competition [75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term short - selling recommendation for the oil and fat industry [5] 2. Core View of the Report - With the expectation of a looser supply of oils and fats both at the production areas and in the domestic market, the fundamental situation of the oil and fat market is bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil and soybean oil are neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Malaysian palm oil production areas have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter are increasing. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but the amount for commercial crushing is uncertain. There are expectations of peace talks between China and Canada, and there are good harvests in Canada, Australia and other production areas this year [5] - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Indonesian biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, with an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5] - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic oil and fat inventory is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of replenishing inventory due to a large number of purchases by traders. For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5] - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles. Some of the US biodiesel exemption petitions have been approved, and there is still uncertainty about RVO. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5] - **Investment View**: Short - term short - selling. In the context of the expected looser supply of oils and fats at the production areas and in the domestic market, the oil and fat fundamentals are bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short palm oil and rapeseed oil; Arbitrage: Long Y01 and short P01; Options: Buy call options for protection. Risk concerns include MPOB and USDA reports, unexpected production cuts, and policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][11][14] 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia in the past and future periods [21][23][25] - **Indonesian and Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand**: It includes the production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia from 2021 to 2025 [33][38][39] - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Differences**: It shows the import quantities of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price differences between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [45][49] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It includes the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of domestic palm oil from 2021 to 2025 [51][53][55] - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It shows the temperature and precipitation distributions in the soybean - producing areas of Argentina and Brazil in the next 15 days, as well as the good - to - excellent rate and harvesting progress of US soybeans [62][65][71] - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It includes the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and monthly export volume of US and Brazilian soybeans, as well as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026 [75][79] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly arrival volume of Chinese soybeans, the weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, the daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and the weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [89] - **Rapeseed Situation**: It includes the precipitation and temperature forecasts in the rapeseed - producing areas of Canada and Europe in the next 15 days, the soil moisture in Canada, the FOB prices of rapeseed in Ukraine, Australia, and Canada, the weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, the import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, the expected arrival volume of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, the weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and the weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the domestic market from 2021 to 2026 [90][99][101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating with an upward bias" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic soybean purchase and crushing margins are poor. With China's expected procurement of US soybeans, the short - term domestic futures market is expected to continue the oscillating and upward - biased trend following the US market. However, the expected global soybean supply surplus is likely to limit the rebound height of the futures market. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report and South American weather [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply factor is bullish. USDA's current estimate of the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season is 6.9%, with potential for a downward adjustment in the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre and an upward adjustment in export expectations, indicating a tight supply - demand balance sheet. As of November 1st, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 47.1%, lower than last year and the five - year average, and attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. In November, domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to start decreasing, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The progress of vessel bookings for December - January is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5] - **Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is neutral, and for rapeseed meal is bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, but recent downstream transactions of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory factor is neutral. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and are expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5] - **Profit**: The profit factor is bullish. Domestic soybean purchase and crushing margins are poor, while Canadian rapeseed crushing margins are good [5] - **Valuation**: The valuation is neutral. From the perspective of crushing margins, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the recent soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high - neutral valuation [5] - **Macro and Policy**: The macro and policy factor is bullish. Since November 10, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US - imported goods have been adjusted, with a 24% additional tariff rate suspended for one year, leaving a 10% additional tariff rate, and the current tariff rate for Chinese imports of US soybeans is 13%. Canada cannot immediately cancel tariffs on China [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the trend is oscillating with an upward bias, and risks to watch include policy and weather; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [5] 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [34][40] - **US Soybean Data**: The US soybean sowing rate and good - quality rate data are presented, and the domestic crushing profit has declined. This week, no US soybean export sales data were announced [49][54][67] - **Price and Profit Data**: Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean crushing margins, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and Canadian rapeseed import crushing margins are provided [74][78] - **Inventory and Consumption Data**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while feed enterprise inventories are at low levels. Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories, as well as oil mill opening rates, crushing volumes, and meal product trading and consumption volumes, are also presented [85][98][107] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding Data**: Data on livestock and poultry breeding profits, pig prices, weights, and poultry breeding inventories are provided, showing that pig prices have slightly declined and weight reduction is not obvious [123][127][131]