Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The report presents a daily data analysis of stock index options including market trends of major indices and trading volume and open - interest data of index options on the CFFEX, as well as volatility analysis of relevant indices [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On December 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.09% at 3,968.84 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.23%, the Bei - zheng 50 fell 0.7%, the Kechuang 50 fell 1.15%, the Wind All - A fell 0.17%, the Wind A500 fell 0.36%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.28%. A - share trading volume for the day was RMB 2.07 trillion, compared with RMB 2.16 trillion the previous day [5] - Index closing prices, daily changes (%), trading volume (billion yuan), and trading volume (billion) are provided: the closing price of SSE 50 was 1,076.68 with a change of 37.36, trading volume of 3,031.1258 billion yuan and a trading volume of 170.76 billion; the closing price of CSI 300 was 4,629.9395 with a change of - 0.46%, trading volume of 4,444.92 billion yuan and a trading volume of 4,406.72 billion; the closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,595.2845 with a change of - 0.03% and trading volume of 244.55 billion yuan [3] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Volume - For SSE 50 index options: call option trading volume was 5.27 million contracts, put option trading volume was 2.65 million contracts, trading volume PCR was 1.73, call option open - interest was 3.16 million contracts, put option open - interest was 2.11 million contracts, open - interest PCR was 0.67, and total open - interest was 3.74 million contracts [3] - For CSI 300 index options: call option trading volume was 10.32 million contracts, put option trading volume was 6.58 million contracts, trading volume PCR was 0.57, call option open - interest was 10.27 million contracts, put option open - interest was 7.43 million contracts, and open - interest PCR was 0.72 [3] - For CSI 1000 index options: call option trading volume was 22.19 million contracts, put option trading volume was 12.83 million contracts, trading volume PCR was 0.73, call option open - interest was 29.43 million contracts, put option open - interest was 9.36 million contracts, open - interest PCR was 0.97, and total open - interest was 14.95 million contracts [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - Volatility analysis includes historical volatility and historical volatility cones for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices, along with volatility smile curves and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is neutral - bullish, with attention on weather. Southeast Asian precipitation has eased, and dry conditions in South America may affect the new - season soybean yield. Domestic soybean oil mills have normal operations with sufficient supply for now, while there is a shortage of domestic rapeseed waiting for Australian imports [3]. - Demand is under observation. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is close to B40 but fails to reach B50, indicating implementation difficulties. The US biodiesel RVO has a significant impact on international oil and fat supply - demand, but its release time is uncertain. Domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - In terms of inventory, the outlook for palm oil is to wait and see, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in short supply. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is high, with the year - end carry - over inventory expected to reach 3 million tons, pressuring the market. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing and will be tight in Q1. Rapeseed oil inventory is also declining due to supply shortages [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors are bullish. The conflict between the US and Venezuela during the holiday has disrupted the crude oil market, and the market may price vegetable oils from the biodiesel end, leading to price rebounds. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled for release in Q1, which may cause major impacts. The Indonesian B50 story has not yet entered the speculation stage [3]. - Investment view: Wait for opportunities to go long on palm oil and go short on rapeseed oil. The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production cuts, B50 policy, and US biodiesel. Rapeseed oil has short - term price increases due to trader pick - ups and import restrictions, but will face pressure from global rapeseed harvests after trade flows are restored. Consider short - selling if oil prices gap up due to geopolitical events [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Neutral - bullish, affected by weather in Southeast Asia and South America, and domestic rapeseed supply situation [3]. - Demand: Under observation, influenced by Indonesia's biodiesel quota and the uncertain release time of US biodiesel RVO [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil - wait and see; soybean oil and rapeseed oil - tight [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy: Bullish, due to crude oil market disruptions and upcoming US biodiesel policy [3]. - Investment view: Long palm oil later, short rapeseed oil [3]. - Trading strategy: Short rapeseed oil unilaterally, lightly allocate P5 - 9 positive spreads, and there is no option strategy mentioned [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the spreads of different contracts such as P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [5][9][14]. 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: Information on past and future precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia is provided, which affects palm oil production [20][24][30]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [33][37][38]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [39][44]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil is provided [45][50]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, inventory, import cost, and import profit are presented [51][53][55]. - **Weather and Soybean Production Situation**: Information on the future temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina is provided [63][66][72]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume and CNF premium are presented [77][81]. - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [91]. - **Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: Data on the FOB price of rapeseed from different origins, Canadian rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed expected arrival volume, and rapeseed oil import volume are presented [92][94]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [99][103].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [2] - Research Institute: Guomao Futures Research Institute, Energy and Chemical Research Center [3] - Analyst: Lu Dingyi [3] - Data Sources: Clarksons, Wind [3] - Date: January 5, 2026 [3] Group 2: Freight Index - **Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)**: Present value is 1656, previous value was 1553, with a rise of 6.66% [4] - **China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI)**: Present value is 1147, previous value was 1125, with a rise of 1.95% [4] - **SCFI - US West Coast**: Present value is 2188, previous value was 1992, with a rise of 9.84% [4] - **SCFIS - US West Coast**: Present value is 962, previous value was 924, with a rise of 4.11% [4] - **SCFI - US East Coast**: Present value is 3033, previous value was 2846, with a rise of 6.57% [4] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: Present value is 1690, previous value was 1533, with a rise of 10.24% [4] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: Present value is 1589, previous value was 1510, with a rise of 5.23% [4] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: Present value is 3143, previous value was 2833, with a rise of 10.94% [4] Group 3: Market Review - Current European line freight rates are in high - level oscillations. The second - half - month quotes of each alliance are generally higher than those of the first - half - month. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight rate level, and the separate quotes of MSC have a significant increase [5] - **GEMINI Alliance**: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1585, 40GP is 2550; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1635, 40GP is 2650, up 50 and 100 respectively compared to wk1 [5] - **OA Alliance**: In wk1 (12/20 - 1/4), 20GP is 1535, 40GP is 2631; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1824, 40GP is 3068, a significant increase compared to wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [5] - **PA Alliance**: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1603, 40GP is 2806; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1645, 40GP is 2600; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [6] - **MSC**: In wk1 (12/20 - 1/4), 20GP is 1700, 40GP is 2840; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1880, 40GP is 3140, up 180 and 300 respectively compared to wk1 [6] Group 4: Core View - The European line container shipping shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of futures and spot". Freight rates have rebounded for multiple weeks, with spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies have a strong willingness to control cabins and support prices [6] - On the demand side, benefiting from the Spring Festival stocking and restocking demand, the cabin loading rate has improved. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, and some airlines are tentatively resuming flights, but overall they remain cautious [6] - The freight rate may peak in mid - January. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of flight resumptions, and the market faces adjustment pressure [6] Group 5: Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending stock of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, with a low inventory - consumption ratio of 6.7%, which provides some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply - demand report [8]. - There is no obvious bullish factor in South American weather in the short term. The weather in Argentine production areas is dry recently, but the soil moisture is suitable with no obvious adverse impact for now. Brazilian soybean sowing is nearly finished, and harvesting has begun in Paraná state. With the expectation of a large Brazilian soybean harvest, the impact of the selling pressure during the January harvest on Brazilian CX premiums should be monitored. The sum of the US soybean futures price and Brazilian premiums is expected to decline, and M05 is expected to be relatively weak without special events [9]. - In China, the de - stocking of soybeans in January is expected to accelerate. Due to concerns about soybean shortages in the first quarter and extended customs inspections, downstream pre - holiday stocking is expected to be active, which supports domestic spot prices before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter causes a structural supply problem in China, which supports M03. M03 - M05 is still in a positive spread in the short term, but the risk lies in policy changes. The impact of stricter customs inspection policies, the volume, price, and shipping rhythm of imported soybean auctions or directed supplies are hard to predict, so investors are advised to operate cautiously [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang), the basis values in Dalian, Tianjin, and other places on December 31st were 411, 391, etc., with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was 371 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 129 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 35 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 534, with a decrease of 2; the spot spread (in Guangdong) was 300; the spread of the main contract was 384, with an increase of 9 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9584, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 130.00 cents per bushel, with a daily increase of 0. The Brazilian soybean import gross margin per ton was also presented in the 2025 chart [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Charts were provided for China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, etc., covering data from 2020 - 2025 [7]. 3.5 Machine and Pressing Situation - Charts showed the major domestic oil mills' soybean pressing volume in tons and the operating rate from 2020 - 2023 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current freight rates on the European route are fluctuating at a high level. The mid - to - late - month quotes of each alliance are generally higher than those in the early month. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight rate level, and the separate quote of MSC has a significant increase [3]. - Politically and economically, the situation is neutral. There are events such as the US's "large - scale strike" on Venezuela and Trump's meeting with Netanyahu to promote the second - stage cease - fire in Gaza, but the progress is limited [3]. - In terms of capacity supply, it is a negative factor. The average weekly capacity deployment in November was 265,000 TEU, 290,000 TEU in December, and 310,000 TEU in January [3]. - The demand for container shipping on the European route remained strong at the end of 2025, showing a super - seasonal recovery. Driven by the extended Spring Festival stocking window period in 2026 and the replenishment demand of European importers, the booking volume continued to grow, and the fleet loading rate remained high. The overall demand showed strong resilience, supporting the continuous increase in freight rates [3]. - In the short term, the freight rates may peak in mid - January. The market has adjustment pressure, and future attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of resuming flights [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Effects**: - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bullish. Different alliances have different freight rate trends. For example, the OA alliance has a significant increase in freight rates from wk1 to wk2, and MSC's freight rates also rise significantly from wk1 to wk3 [3]. - **Political and Economic Situation**: Neutral. There are major international political events, but their impact on the container shipping market is not one - sided [3]. - **Capacity Supply**: Bearish. The capacity deployment is increasing month by month [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The demand for container shipping on the European route is strong, with continuous growth in booking volume and high fleet loading rates [3]. - **Summary and Investment Viewpoints**: The market is in an oscillating state. The short - term freight rates may peak in mid - January, and the trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the trends of various shipping route indexes including the European route index, the US - West route index, and the US - East route index through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [6]. 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years through charts, including new - order volumes and order - to - fleet ratios for different types of container ships [11]. - **Delivery Volume**: Charts are used to display the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [14][16]. - **Demolition Volume**: The demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years is presented in charts [15][17]. - **Future Delivery**: The future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities, quarterly seasonal charts, and total future delivery volume over the years are shown in charts [20][22][23]. - **Ship - Breaking Price**: The ship - breaking prices of container ships in different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change are presented in charts [27]. - **New - Building Ship Price**: The new - building prices of container ships in different loading capacities and the new - building price index are shown in charts [28][29]. - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: The second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships in different loading capacities and ages are presented in charts [33][35][37]. - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships**: The existing capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, percentage, different loading capacities, age structure (including ships over 25 years old, average age, and ship - breaking average age), and the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships are shown in charts [42][44][45]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: The total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, MSC capacity deployment, and OCEAN capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports in different weeks are presented in charts [57][59][61][63][65]. - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Information about container ships with installed desulfurization towers (in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage), those under desulfurization tower installation (in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage), the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships (overall and by loading capacity) are presented in charts [67][68][71]. - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships (in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage), idle capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle capacity, and capacity under desulfurization tower installation are presented in charts [75][76][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the black metal industry. For each sub - sector: - Steel: Suggests a "wait - and - see" approach [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Recommends a "neutral" stance with a "wait - and - see" trading strategy [67] - Iron Ore: Holds a "neutral" view and advises "wait - and - see" [117] 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is currently in a state of complex dynamics. There are signs of recovery in some aspects such as iron ore and steel production, but also issues like high inventory and weak demand in other areas. The market is influenced by both macro factors (e.g., Venezuela's political conflict) and industry - specific factors (e.g., coal mine production and steel mill profitability). Overall, the market lacks a clear new driving force, and most sectors are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [7][67][117] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron ore production has stopped falling and slightly rebounded, with an increase of 0.85 to 227.43wt this week. Scrap steel daily consumption is stable compared to the previous week and lower than in 2023. After January, there may be some production resumptions, but the scale is not expected to be large. As the Spring Festival approaches, EAF operations will decline, balancing the total crude steel production [7] - **Demand**: From an industrial data perspective, the supply - demand structure shows weak supply and demand, but the negative pressure on furnace materials from the decline in steel production is weakening. From a market perception perspective, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, with light speculative demand and poor price - transaction sentiment. After January, state - owned palletizing funds may return to the market, which is relatively beneficial for the spot liquidity of the trading segment. In terms of varieties, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has slightly improved, medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are stable, and the demand for building materials is weaker than the same period [7] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is still steadily decreasing, mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - sales ratios of rebar and wire rods are stable, hot - rolled coils have improved month - on - month, and medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are stable. The inventory of plates is being depleted slowly, and the high - inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils has not been eliminated [7] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly expanded. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 128, with a weekly increase of 6; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is 0, with a weekly increase of 13 [7] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits have slightly rebounded, but the profitability level is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.1%, with a weekly change of + 0.87% [7] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry operations. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [7] - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The overall commodity atmosphere is good. During the New Year's Day holiday, the RMB exchange rate appreciated and the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, leading to an improvement in the risk appetite for RMB assets. The political conflict in Venezuela is a concern as it may cause short - term supply restrictions on resource products and impact prices [7] - **Investment View**: At the macro level, there are few new driving forces and news. It is necessary to focus on whether the Venezuela issue will expand and affect the supply of surrounding resource products. Recently, the performance of commodities has not been bad, and the exchange rate appreciation may bring advantages to RMB asset allocation. At the industrial level, the supply - demand of five major steel products is weak, but the negative pressure on furnace materials is weakening. The inventory - removal pressure of plates is prominent, and there is support at low prices. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and use a range - trading strategy for single - sided trading. After January, the market funds may be more abundant, which is beneficial for cash - and - carry positions. The cash - and - carry operation of hot - rolled coils can still be rolled [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - sided: Use a range - trading approach; Arbitrage: Consider widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is below 150; Cash - and - carry: Roll the cash - and - carry operation of hot - rolled coils [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The supply - demand of steel is weak. This week, the apparent demand of five major steel products is 841.02 (+7.41), and the production is 815.18 (+18.36). The steel production has increased, but it is still in the off - season. The inventory is still decreasing, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. The profitability rate of steel mills has increased, and the iron ore production has stabilized and gradually rebounded [67] - **Coking Coal Supply**: After the New Year's Day, the short - term production suspension and reduction of domestic coal mines will end, and the production is expected to rebound rapidly. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. The quotation of overseas coal continues to rise, and the internal - external price inversion persists [67] - **Coke Supply**: This week, the daily average coke production is 109.5 (+0.1), and the coking profit is - 14 (-4). The coking operation is stable, and the fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, leading to a further contraction of coking profit [67] - **Inventory**: All links of coking coal and coke have accumulated inventory, indicating that downstream procurement is still relatively cautious [67] - **Basis/Spread**: After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the cost of wet - quenched/dry - quenched warehouse receipts for the 05 contract is 1675/1700, and the cost of port trade quotations converted into warehouse receipts is 1700. The futures price has rebounded and is oscillating between the third and fourth rounds of price cuts. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is around 1100, and the actual cost is lower considering the difficulty of handling for long - position holders [67] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.10% (+0.87%), and the coking profit is - 14 (-4) [67] - **Summary**: Before the holiday, the black metal sector is oscillating. Coking coal and coke are still weak. Although the article in Qiushi magazine has a positive impact on sentiment, the short - term funds are not optimistic about the black metal demand, and the overall market is still expected to oscillate. The market atmosphere has slightly improved, but the downstream is still mainly in a wait - and - see mode. The futures price of coke is oscillating between the third and fourth rounds of price cuts, and it is possible to consider going long at the lower limit of the oscillation range [67] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - sided: Temporarily wait and see; Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [67] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipping volume this period has decreased by 9.3 tons per day to 504 tons per day compared to the previous period. Among them, the shipping volume from Australia has decreased by 8.5 tons per day, that from Brazil has increased by 15.7 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines has decreased by 16.2 tons per day to 84 tons per day. The arrival volume in China has increased by 23.2 tons per day, with a decrease of 12 tons per day from Australia, an increase of 34.1 tons per day from Brazil, and an increase of 1.2 tons per day from non - mainstream sources [117] - **Demand**: The iron ore production of steel mills has increased by 0.85 tons per day compared to the previous period. The profitability ratio of steel mills continues to fluctuate slightly, increasing by 0.87% to 38.1%. According to the maintenance plan, the iron ore production will slowly rebound in the future, and the iron ore demand will be in a recovery stage in January. The steel production has slightly increased this period. Rebar still maintains a low - production, low - apparent - demand, and slightly inventory - decreasing pattern, while hot - rolled coils continue to reduce inventory after the increase in apparent demand [117] - **Inventory**: The daily average ore - unloading volume of 47 ports has slightly decreased by 5.94 tons to 328.23 tons, which is still at a relatively high level. However, due to the large arrival pressure, the port inventory has increased by 114.06 tons, continuously higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [117] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are at a low level [117] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [117] - **Summary**: On January 3, the US raided Venezuela. Although Venezuela has high iron ore reserves, its export volume is not high, accounting for about 0.3% of China's imported iron ore. Currently, it has not affected its iron ore export, but there is a possibility of price increase due to sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the high price. The iron ore production is stable, and there are signs of bottoming out. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price has clear upward pressure. The overall market fluctuation is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [117] - **Investment View**: Neutral [117] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - sided: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [117]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Pulp has intense competition between the "strong supply" and "weak demand" narratives recently, and is highly volatile due to market macro funds. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices of SP2601, SP2609, and SP2605 on December 31, 2025, were 5460 yuan/ton, 5570 yuan/ton, and 5532 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 0.66%, 0.61%, and 0.65%, and weekly decreases of 1.66%, 1.59%, and 1.57% [6] - Spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Golden were 5600 yuan/ton, 5400 yuan/ton, and 4700 yuan/ton respectively on December 31, 2025, with the Golden having a daily and weekly increase of 0.64% [6] - Foreign offers of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 700 dollars/ton, 560 dollars/ton, and 620 dollars/ton respectively, with monthly increases of 2.94%, 3.70%, and 0.00% [6] - Import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721 yuan/ton, 4587 yuan/ton, and 5073 yuan/ton respectively, with monthly increases of 2.91%, 3.66%, and 0.00% [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - In November 2025, imports of coniferous pulp were 72.5 tons, a 4.92% increase from October; imports of broadleaf pulp were 176.5 tons, a 33.92% increase from October [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, a 3.00% increase [6] - National production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp in different weeks from November 13 to December 25, 2025, showed certain fluctuations [6] - As of December 25, 2025, pulp port inventory was 190.6 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous period, a 4.4% decrease; futures delivery warehouse inventory was 10.1 tons [6] - Production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard in different weeks from November 13 to December 25, 2025, also showed certain fluctuations [6] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Suzano announced a full - scale price increase for global broadleaf pulp in January 2026, with a 20 - dollar increase in Asia and a 120 - dollar increase in Europe and North America for Golden broadleaf pulp [6] - The demand side remains weak. Among mainstream wood - pulp papers, the price of cultural paper continues to decline, while tissue paper and white cardboard have a slight increase [6] - As of December 25, 2025, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 190.6 tons, showing a de - stocking trend for five consecutive weeks [6]

| | | | | | | | H色合属状性能 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/05 | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 7000 | | | - 1000 | | | (元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of overseas events on the risk appetite of domestic equity assets. In the medium and long term, stock indices in 2026 are expected to continue rising on the basis of 2025. Macro - policies continue to exert force, and a moderate rebound in inflation may help improve corporate profit expectations. Capital market reform policies are expected to bring incremental funds to A - shares. The role of Central Huijin as a "quasi - stabilization fund" will also support the market. Investors can wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear and market risk appetite to recover before opportunistically building long positions [6] 3. Summary of Related Catalog 3.1 Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.33 with a 9.30bp increase, DR007 at 1.98 with a 29.47bp increase, GC001 at 1.86 with a 17.50bp decrease, GC007 at 1.74 with a 31.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a 0.20bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34 with a 0.18bp increase, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.63 with a 1.33bp increase, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 0.29bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.19 with a 1.00bp increase. On the last trading day of 2025, the central bank's open - market operations continued to significantly increase volume and maintain net investment. The money market on Wednesday remained generally loose, but due to the New Year's Day holiday, the main repurchase rates of deposit - taking institutions generally rose, with the weighted average rate of the seven - day repurchase across the holiday rising nearly 30bp to around the 2% mark [4] 3.2 Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4630 with a 0.46% decrease, the SSE 50 at 3031 with a 0.18% decrease, the CSI 500 at 7466 with a 0.09% increase, the CSI 1000 at 7595 with a 0.03% decrease. The IF current - month contract closed at 4622 with a 0.5% decrease, the IH current - month contract at 3026 with a 0.3% decrease, the IC current - month contract at 7456 with no change, the IM current - month contract at 7581 with a 0.2% decrease. The IF trading volume was 103038 with a 9.1% increase and the holding volume was 276001 with a 1.8% decrease. The IH trading volume was 49681 with a 20.7% increase and the holding volume was 88647 with a 0.3% increase. The IC trading volume was 110981 with a 5.5% decrease and the holding volume was 274174 with a 5.1% decrease. The IM trading volume was 157425 with a 3.6% decrease and the holding volume was 360137 with a 3.4% decrease. During the holiday, the overseas markets performed strongly. On January 2nd, the Hong Kong stock market had a good start, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 2.76% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 4%. The semiconductor sector led the rise. The FTSE China A50 index futures rose nearly 1%, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate once broke through the 6.97 mark [5] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.08%, 3.41%, 3.17%, and 3.56% respectively. The IH premium/discount rates were 5.14%, 1.52%, 0.98%, and 1.07% respectively. The IC premium/discount rates were 4.06%, 6.01%, 6.70%, and 8.55% respectively. The IM premium/discount rates were 5.56%, 9.29%, 10.19%, and 11.50% respectively [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. Given the high basis of Shanghai silver, there is a risk of significant price fluctuations in silver. Key events such as the US January non - farm payrolls, the announcement of the new Fed chairperson, and the possible announcement of US critical mineral tariffs at the end of the month should be monitored [3]. - In the long term, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties will persist due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is likely to continue, so the long - term price center of gold is likely to move upward. Long - term investors are advised to mainly allocate by buying on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On December 31, 2025, London gold spot was at $4329.08/ounce, London silver spot at $71.93/ounce, COMEX gold at $4340.70/ounce, and COMEX silver at $71.54/ounce. Compared with December 30, 2025, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 0.8% - 0.9% and silver down about 3.8% [3]. - **Price Differences**: On December 31, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - $0.79/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - $23/kg. The price differences between domestic and foreign markets also changed, with some showing significant percentage changes [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **ETF Positions**: As of January 2, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 1065.13 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with December 31, 2025. The silver ETF - SLV position remained unchanged at 16444.13962 tons [3]. - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also changed. For example, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased by 3.29% from December 31, 2025, to January 2, 2026 [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 97704.00 kg, unchanged from December 30, 2025, and the SHFE silver inventory was 691638.00 kg, a decrease of 8.48% [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36402970 troy ounces, an increase of 0.41% compared with December 31, 2025, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449773368 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Markets - **Exchange Rates**: On December 31, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.03, with a decrease of 0.09% compared with December 30, 2025 [3]. - **Interest Rates and Stock Indexes**: On January 2, 2026, the US dollar index was 98.46, up 0.19% compared with December 31, 2025. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, unchanged, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.24%. The VIX index decreased by 2.94%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.19%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.14% [3]. 3.5 Market Review and Influencing Factors - **Market Review**: On December 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.65% to 977.56 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.27% to 1707 yuan/kg. During the New Year's Day holiday, as of January 2, London spot gold rose about 0.08% and London spot silver rose about 1.25% compared with the 15:00 closing on December 31 [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Geopolitical tensions in Iran, Venezuela, etc., during the New Year's Day holiday boosted the demand for safe - haven assets, supporting precious metal prices. However, the relatively strong US dollar index and US Treasury yields limited the upward space of precious metal prices. The silver spot market remained tight, and the price differences showed certain trends [3].