投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 主要周度数据变动回顾 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,616万桶/日，较2024年上升 299万桶/日。(2)OPEC:11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2848万桶/日，较10月份下降0.1万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1458.5万桶/日，较10月 | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | | | | | 份上升4.5万桶/日。（3）IEA：11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2899万桶/日， ...

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The performance of overseas markets was strong during the holiday, but the geopolitical situation change on Saturday increased the uncertainty of the post - holiday risk - asset trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of overseas events on the risk appetite of domestic equity assets [1] Group 2: Fixed - Income Market - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, and the premium of US copper persists, so the copper price has further increased. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk, though the trend is expected to remain unchanged [1] Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. But with positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of the expected tight supply of aluminum ingots, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong [1] Alumina - The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the weak industry pressures the price. But the current price is basically near the cost line, so the price is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, the cost center has shifted up, and recent negative factors have basically materialized. Market sentiment is volatile, and the zinc price fluctuates [1] Nickel - The macro sentiment has warmed up. News about Indonesia has further boosted market concerns about nickel - ore supply. The global nickel - inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly recently with increased positions. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policies and macro sentiment. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and excessive chasing of highs should be avoided [1] Stainless Steel - The raw - material nickel - iron price has rebounded, the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production in January has increased. The short - term stainless - steel futures are expected to be strong and volatile. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] Tin - The non - ferrous tin industry association issued an initiative to guide the price back to the normal range, pressuring the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there may be further fermentation of tin supply. After a short - term adjustment, the downside space is limited, and low - buying opportunities near the support level are recommended [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and New Energy Precious Metals - The geopolitical situation is tense, and precious - metal prices are still supported, but the VIX of Shanghai silver is still high, and there may still be short - term games. In the long run, the logic of precious metals remains unchanged. Based on the fact that silver may no longer be undervalued compared with gold, priority should be given to low - buying gold in the future [1] Platinum and Palladium - During the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly, which is expected to boost domestic prices. But in the short term, they may still have high volatility. In the medium - to - long term, there is a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. Platinum can be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted [1] Industrial Silicon - In the northwest, production increases, while in the southwest, it decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December. A capacity storage platform company has been established, and there is a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. Terminal installations increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. Short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] Lithium Carbonate - It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption, and there is a short - term rapid increase. Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Group 5: Steel and Iron - Related Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Iron Ore - The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] Ferrous Metals (General) - There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. In reality, direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure. In expectation, energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may disrupt supply [1] Group 6: Building Materials Glass - The supply and demand are supported, the valuation is low, and there are renewed supply disruptions. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [1] Soda Ash - It follows the trend of glass. The supply and demand are acceptable, the valuation is low, the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and fluctuate [1] Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of spot price cuts has started. After the futures price fell to the level of the fourth - round cut and then rebounded, attention should be paid to whether the futures price can reach a new low during the period from the price - cut announcement to implementation. If the price - cut negative factors cannot drive continuous decline, the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate widely [1] Group 7: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - The MPOB December data is expected to be negative for palm oil, but it will reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the oil price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1] Soybean Oil - It follows the trend of other oils in the short term. Waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1] Rapeseed Oil - Recent news has brought a large rebound to the rapeseed - oil price and the January - May spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent marginal loosening of the fundamentals. A rebound in sentiment is expected to subside, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1] Cotton - There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas, the intention of next year's cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand from March to April [1] Sugar - Currently, there is a global sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support below is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1] Corn - The progress of grassroots grain sales of corn is relatively fast. Currently, the inventory levels at ports and downstream are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. It is expected that the spot price will remain strong in the short term under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches, and the futures price is expected to have limited回调 and remain strong and fluctuate later [1] Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA report and the manifestation of Brazil's harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported - soybean cargo rights will bring a domestic supply - structure problem, which supports the M03 contract. The M03 - M05 spread is still expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in customs policies, imported - soybean auctions, and targeted policies [1] Pulp - Pulp futures have recently been pulled by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, with large fluctuations. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended, and a January - May reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered for the spread [1] Logs - Log futures have declined due to the decline in overseas quotes and spot prices. The pressure on the 01 contract is large as it approaches the delivery month, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Hogs - The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand and with the unsold weight of slaughtered hogs still remaining, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the conflict between the US and Venezuela. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, there are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand and operation rate have weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production, further intensifying the supply - demand surplus, and the market expectation is weak [1] Fuel Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has sanctioned Venezuelan oil exports [1] Asphalt - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma - Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1] Natural Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the basis is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] BR Rubber - The futures positions have decreased, and the price increase has slowed down. The listing prices of BD/BR have shifted up, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually recovered. Butadiene rubber maintains high - operation and high - inventory operation, and the spot trading has weakened with general order demand [1] PTA - The PX price is strong, and the floating spread has strengthened. The PTA plants generally maintain a high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Polyester pre - holiday stock - building and sales have improved. The new polyester plants' commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption remains high [1] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - It is reported that two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to shut down next month due to poor efficiency. During the continuous decline of ethylene glycol, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. Currently, the downstream operation rate of polyester remains above 91%, the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations, and the recent overall polyester sales are relatively high [1] Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - The Asian styrene price rebounded briefly after continuous monthly declines, mainly driven by supply - side contraction. Many plants have reduced production or shut down due to maintenance or poor economics. The demand for polymer downstream products such as PS and ABS remains weak. The warming of the commodity - market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] Urea - The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upside space. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] PE - There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is high, the crude - oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the US - Venezuela conflict [1] PVC - In 2026, there will be less global new production, and the future expectation is optimistic. There will be fewer subsequent maintenance activities, new production capacity will be released, and the supply pressure will increase. The demand has weakened, and orders are poor [1] LPG - The January CP has risen more than expected, providing strong cost - side support for imported gas. The geopolitical conflicts between the US and Venezuela and in the Middle East have intensified, and the short - term risk premium has increased. The EIA weekly C3 inventory has continued to accumulate, and overseas demand has slowed down periodically. Domestic PDH maintains high - operation and deep - loss operation, with only the rigid demand for civil combustion, and there is overseas olefin - blending demand for oil [1] Group 9: Shipping Container Shipping (European Route) - The price increase in December did not meet expectations, the expectation of peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on polyester is "oscillating", with an expected upward trend mainly driven by the supply side [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the upsurge in bulk commodity sentiment, the polyester market is expected to be strong, pushing up prices. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamental factors intersect. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the new polyester installations drive the high - load operation of the polyester industry, keeping PTA consumption at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the high - load polyester industry supports demand [3]. - **Demand**: New polyester installations drive the high - load operation of the polyester industry. PTA consumption remains high, and the market's inventory - building willingness increases, leading to a rapid strengthening of the basis [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has decreased by 30,000 tons, and mainstream polyester factories sell spot goods [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has been continuously strengthening, and PTA profits have expanded significantly [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $360, and the PTA processing fee has expanded to around 350 yuan [3]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price has significantly rebounded, exceeding 5,000 yuan. The profit of the reforming unit has recovered, and overseas PX units have increased their loads due to profit expansion [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating, expected to be mainly upward - trending driven by the supply side [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, crude oil prices remain weak. Due to the intensification of US sanctions on Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, crude oil prices are under pressure [6][26]. - **Gasoline**: In the US, gasoline inventories are accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Gasoline cracking profits have slightly weakened. The European gasoline forward premium is strengthening, and the market has started to stock up for the 2026 summer driving season [10][15][26]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **PX Supply**: Although the PX supply has increased, the market is expected to be strong. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamental factors intersect [66]. - **Aromatics Market**: Asian reformed naphtha remains firm due to regional supply - demand structural tightness. The cracking profit of naphtha has further deteriorated. The supply of reformed naphtha is restricted. In the short term, aromatic components are supported by supply constraints and seasonal demand, but in the medium - to - long term, they face challenges from energy transformation and low aromatic profits [45]. - **Mixed Xylene Market**: The mixed xylene market has strengthened significantly, mainly driven by the strong rebound of PX prices. The PX - mixed xylene spread has expanded to $156, and the mixed xylene - naphtha spread has reached a recent high of $174/ton. In the short term, the mixed xylene price will follow the PX trend, but its upward space is limited by weak gasoline blending profits and the impact of eased geopolitical risks on crude oil [59]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The number of overseas ethylene glycol unit maintenance plans has increased. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China remains at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price is difficult to be effectively supported. The return of coal - based ethylene glycol units exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and the ethylene glycol price may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [79]. - **Gasoline**: Asian gasoline profits remain strong. Attention should be paid to domestic gasoline exports [80]. - **Polyester**: The polyester industry continues to operate at a high load, but demand is seasonally weakening. The commodity sentiment has weakened, and policy changes may have an impact on the polyester industry [87][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market sentiment has weakened, and it is expected that pure benzene and styrene will mainly fluctuate. The supply and demand of styrene both show a bearish trend, the inventory is neutral, the basis is bullish, the profit and valuation are neutral, and the macro - policy is bullish [4]. - Overseas markets for pure benzene and styrene are generally weak. The overseas pure benzene market has light trading, and the styrene market is in a downturn with limited upward momentum in the short term [74][95]. - The downstream demand for styrene is in the off - season, with weak demand and shrinking profits in industries such as ABS, PS, and EPS [52][64][75]. - The domestic pure benzene market has weak demand, high inventory, and narrow price fluctuations. Although there is short - term support from the rebound of energy prices, the overall market sentiment is still suppressed [84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The spread between styrene and naphtha has narrowed to $272, and the spread between styrene and benzene has dropped to $154. Asian producers are still in a loss - making state, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Demand**: As of December 29, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 29, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples was 138,800 tons, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous period, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened, and attention should be paid to the change in cost support, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha has narrowed to $272, and the spread between styrene and benzene has dropped to $154. Styrene profit has slightly recovered, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows, and the overseas export demand is driving up the price. The market is paying attention to the strengthening of the basis and monthly spread performance, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Macro - policy**: Geopolitical events may have an impact on the market, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The gasoline crack spread has shrunk, and there is less cross - regional trade [6]. - **Styrene**: The profit of non - integrated styrene plants is average [16]. - **Pure Benzene**: The demand for derivatives has not reversed, and the inventory of pure benzene remains at a high level [38]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: In the off - season, demand is weak, and profits are shrinking [52]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: The production profit is weak, and demand has entered the off - season [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: Inventory continues to accumulate [75]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: The output has declined, and the gross profit has rebounded [87]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory remains at a low level [97]. - **Adipic Acid**: Information about production profit, capacity utilization, etc. is presented in the relevant data charts [108]. - **Caprolactam**: The load has declined, and inventory has been depleted [119]. - **Household Appliances**: There is no obvious increase in demand [128].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 商品市场情绪偏多，橡胶维持震荡表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：目前云南产区停割。海南产区西线、南部地区部分胶林正常割胶，新鲜胶水干含处于偏低水平，岛内可收胶量较为有限，受到生产利润有 所恢复提振，部分加工厂存在加价抢收情绪。（2）泰国产区：泰国整体天气趋于正常，泰柬地缘紧张局势有缓解迹象，东北部大部分区 域处于割胶高产阶 | | | | 段，杯胶价格相对坚挺；南部产区供应逐步上量，拖拽胶水价格下滑。 （3）越南产区：越南产区天气整体良好，产区割胶作业未受到扰动，原料供应稳定 | | | | 在常规状态，虽备货需求暂未启动，但是本土轮胎厂刚需采购支撑因素仍在，故原料价格原料价格保持坚挺。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metals such as gold and silver first rose and then fell, with significant adjustments. The sharp decline in precious metal prices was mainly due to the concentrated and rapid profit - taking of long positions under multiple rounds of risk - control measures by exchanges, and the relatively low probability of a Fed rate cut in January, along with the strong performance of the US dollar index and long - term US Treasury yields, which also suppressed precious metal prices. However, geopolitical tensions provided some support [3]. - In the short term, due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions during the New Year's Day holiday, precious metals are expected to gradually shift to high - level range - bound trading. But considering the high level of the Shanghai silver VIX, there is a risk of sharp fluctuations in silver in the short term. This week, attention should be paid to the US January non - farm payrolls and China's central bank gold purchases. In the long term, the long - bull logic of precious metals remains solid, and opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [3]. - The underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains stable. The continuous increase in the US federal government debt will intensify the long - term weakening risk of the US dollar's credit. Coupled with the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the price center of gold will continue to move up steadily [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - Gold prices: London spot gold once exceeded $4,550 per ounce, and then dropped to $4,332.505 per ounce, a weekly decline of 4.41%. The Shanghai gold futures main contract also declined by 3.81% [3]. - Silver prices: London spot silver once exceeded $83.9 per ounce, and then dropped to $72.824 per ounce, a weekly decline of 8.20%. The Shanghai silver futures main contract declined by 6.80% [3]. - Gold - silver ratio: The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 57.25, up 3.20% from the previous period, indicating that silver is no longer undervalued compared to gold [3]. ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold ETF: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 6 tons to 1,065.13 tons, a decline of 0.56% [3]. - Silver ETF: The SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 54 tons to 16,444 tons, an increase of 0.33% [3]. - CFTC non - commercial net long positions: COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 6,722 contracts to 240,700 contracts, an increase of 2.87%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 468 contracts to 35,884 contracts, a decrease of 1.29% [3]. Inventory Data - Gold inventory: The SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.01 tons to 97.704 tons, an increase of 0.01%. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 6.59 tons to 1,132.26 tons, an increase of 0.58% [3]. - Silver inventory: The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 127.79 tons to 692 tons, a decrease of 15.60%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.42 tons to 13,990 tons, an increase of 0.01%. The SGE silver inventory decreased by 13.61 tons to 819 tons, a decrease of 1.64% [3]. PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - US dollar index: It rose to 98.4594, an increase of 0.43% [3]. - US Treasury yields: The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.4733%, down 0.0016 percentage points. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.1907%, up 0.063 percentage points [3]. - US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate: It dropped to 6.9699, a decrease of 0.49% [3]. US Economic Data - GDP: The US GDP growth rate was strong in the third quarter [59]. - Employment: The November non - farm payrolls in the US were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate rebounded. Job vacancies and labor participation rates increased, while wage growth declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [64]. - Inflation: Inflation was relatively controllable. Core commodity inflation rebounded, while core service inflation declined. Consumer inflation expectations increased significantly [66][67][69]. Eurozone Economic Data - PMI: The eurozone manufacturing PMI and service PMI both declined [74]. - GDP: The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded [75]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - China's central bank: It increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month. As of the end of November, China's gold reserves were about 2,305.39 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 0.93 tons [83]. - Global central banks: In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. Although the pace of gold purchases has slowed down, the demand for gold purchases is still expected to be maintained [83].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇专题（MA）】 卸货顺畅后累库，地缘风险持续加剧 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：卸货顺畅后累库，地缘风险持续加剧 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周国内甲醇供给端呈国产、进口双减量态势。总供应量 248.50 万吨，环比降 3.10%；周产量 205.11 万吨，环比降 0.73%。新增西南气头装置检修、新疆天业减产，减产恢复 | | | | 量少于损失量，产能利用率降至 90.31%。进口量 43.39 万吨，环比大降 12.92%，下周进口预期窄幅增加。 | | 需求 | 利多 | 本周甲醇需求端整体增量。总消费量 240.15 万吨，环比增 1.85%；MTO 消费量 108.86 万吨，环比微降 0.08%。传统下游开工走低，交投清淡；中期受补空、刚需补货及内蒙古 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CP prices of propane and butane in January strengthened beyond expectations, but domestic demand remained stagnant. The combustion demand was basically maintained but weakened year - on - year. Although the chemical demand maintained high - level operation, the profits were deeply in the red, and it was hard to say that the demand was improving. In the short term, the PG price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with a downward trend in the price center [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures first declined and then rose, with a fluctuation range of 4,000 - 4,140 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices increased, and international LPG first declined and then rose. The domestic LPG market had both rising and falling prices, with the trading center slightly declining. Affected by both domestic and foreign long and short factors, the PG futures trended in a volatile manner. The domestic import arrivals dropped significantly, and the terminal inventory was at a low level. However, the combustion demand was flat, and the fundamentals were both long and short. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 289 yuan/ton, in South China was 429 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 234 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was designated in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 524,400 tons (a 1.18% increase), including 219,000 tons of civil gas (a 0.41% increase), 187,900 tons of industrial gas (a 0% change), and 79,000 tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrivals last week were 31,000 tons (- 53.77%). In East China, some refineries increased their external releases, and in the Northwest, some enterprises reduced their internal supplies. Additionally, the operation of some refinery units was unstable. The weekly commercial volume increased [4]. 3.3 Demand - In winter, the heating demand was maintained, and the combustion demand for LPG gradually improved, reaching a relatively high level. The absolute value of the PN spread narrowed, and the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material weakened. Constrained by the weak downstream olefin demand, the substitution effect was limited. At the same time, the supply in the Chinese propylene market was in serious surplus, the PDH units were operating at a high load, and the unit profit losses intensified, suppressing the propane procurement. Driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin, European and American blenders had a strong demand for MTBE. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation units were operating at a high start - up rate. Although the profits were increasingly in the red as the raw material prices rose, the rigid demand was relatively resilient [4]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant LPG inventory was 157,600 tons (- 10.47%), and the port inventory was 233,730 tons (a 1.35% increase). In some domestic regions, affected by snow and rain and sufficient supplies, the shipments of refineries declined to varying degrees, ultimately leading to a slight increase in the storage capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. At the ports, the arrivals of ships decreased significantly this period, and the import resources were insufficient. The terminals mostly consumed their own inventories. In terms of demand, the chemical demand changed little, the port trading volume remained stable, and the demand change was limited. Affected by the decline in supply, the port inventory showed an obvious downward trend [4]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 289.80 yuan/ton in East China, 475.80 yuan/ton in South China, and 191.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 6,398 lots, with the lowest deliverable location in Shandong, and the number of lots increased by 30 [4]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rate of PDH was 76.36%, MTBE was 58.12%, and alkylation was 36.38%. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 226 yuan/ton, the alkylation in Shandong was - 769 yuan/ton, and the MTBE isomerization was - 385 yuan/ton [4]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.30 (a 4.15% increase), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was 119 yuan/ton (an 11.21% increase). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, and the crude oil returned to a bearish trend. The oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [4]. 3.8 Other Factors - In December, the PMI rebounded comprehensively and beyond the seasonality. The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 month - on - month to 50.1, the non - manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 month - on - month to 50.2, and the comprehensive PMI increased by 1.0 month - on - month to 50.7, reversing the slowdown trend in the previous two months. The central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting stated that it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The EU extended its economic sanctions against Russia for another six months. The US economic growth exceeded expectations, and gold, silver, and copper reached new highs. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and President Maduro and his wife were arrested [4]. 3.9 Investment Views - The short - term PG price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with a downward trend in the price center [4]. 3.10 Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, going long on SC and short on PG, and going long on PP and short on PG [4]. 3.11 Refinery Unit Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of major refineries and local refineries in China, including information such as refinery names, locations, processing capacities, maintenance units, maintenance capacities, start times, and end times [13]. 3.12 LPG Factory and PDH Unit Maintenance Data - It includes the maintenance data of LPG factories and PDH units, such as production enterprises, locations, maintenance units, normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [14][15]. 3.13 Price and Spread Charts - There are multiple price and spread charts in the report, including CP propane and butane prices, FEI and MB propane and butane prices, price ratios with WTI and Brent, various spreads, and price trends of LPG in different regions, as well as the relationship between LPG and other related products [16][22][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term investment view on butadiene rubber (BR) is bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, trading volume weakened, and the upward trend of BD/BR slowed down. Although the actual fundamentals are still weak, with the good overseas and domestic tire demand and the substitution effect triggered by low-priced synthetic rubber, and the plan of DL Chemical to shut down the No. 1 cracking unit of YNCC, the market sentiment is strongly supported [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex-factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. The domestic BR supply remained at a high level this period. The factors driving the increase in supply price and market price mainly included the expectation that butadiene destocking in January would compress BR production profit, the news of butadiene export negotiations to South Korea strengthening the cost support, and the expectation of favorable macro policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts in January [3] Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 112,500 tons (0.09%), with a capacity utilization rate of 70.61%; the production of high-cis butadiene rubber was 30,900 tons (0.86%), with a capacity utilization rate of 76.92%. Some butadiene and BR production units were shut down, but overall, the supply of BR remained sufficient [2] Demand - In the semi-steel tire market, trading was dull, prices were weak, and merchants were cautious in stocking. In the all-steel tire market, demand weakened, prices were chaotic, and merchants were mainly focused on destocking [2] Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, a 20.28% increase from the previous week; the inventory of high-cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 33,480 tons, a 3.07% decrease from the previous week. Butadiene enterprise inventory decreased, while port inventory increased slightly. BR inventory decreased due to downstream price pressure [2] Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, Profit - The basis of BR in North China was -520 yuan/ton, in East China was -420 yuan/ton, and in South China was -370 yuan/ton. The RU - BR spread was 4,085 yuan/ton (-4.00%); the NR - BR spread was 1,105 yuan/ton (-9.43%); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.47%. The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation was -294 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 1,571.67 yuan/ton. The production profit of BR was 348 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 3.12% [2] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - In December, the PMI rebounded comprehensively, reversing the slowdown trend of the previous two months. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months. The US economy grew more than expected, and precious metals and copper reached new highs. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela [2] Investment and Trading Strategies - For investment, maintain a short-term bullish view. For trading, keep a long position appropriately and beware of the risk of capital profit-taking and price correction. Consider the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, unit maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2] Device Maintenance and Operation - Multiple butadiene and BR production units have maintenance plans in 2025 - 2026, which will affect future supply [9][10] Correlation Analysis of Related Varieties - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of natural rubber-related varieties over 1 and 3 months, showing the relationships between different rubber varieties and other commodities [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for LLDPE and PP, the investment views are both “oscillatory,” suggesting a short - term market with no clear upward or downward trend [2][3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, it is in a state of a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. The short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to oscillate. Factors such as supply, demand, inventory, cost, and macro - environment all have different impacts on the market [2]. - For PP, the driving force is insufficient, and the rebound is limited. The short - term market is also expected to oscillate, affected by multiple factors including supply, demand, inventory, and cost [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's total polyethylene production was 672,200 tons, a 1.09% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 84.11%, a 0.06 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Although there were new device overhauls, some existing devices restarted, leading to a slight increase in capacity utilization [2]. - **Demand**: The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products decreased by 1.0% compared to the previous period. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a 9.93% year - on - year decrease but a 5.04% month - on - month increase, mainly due to delayed shipments in October and increased arrivals from Iran in November [2]. - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 346,700 tons, a 20.48% decrease from the previous period. The social sample warehouse inventory was 475,100 tons, a 0.77% increase from the previous period and 19.11% higher year - on - year [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 124, with the futures price at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: The costs of oil - based and methanol - based production increased by 101 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively, while the costs of coal - based and ethane - based production decreased by 141 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively. The ethylene - based cost remained the same as last week. The import arbitrage profit showed mixed trends [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot absolute price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [2]. - **Macro**: The US war against Venezuela poses a risk of rising international oil prices, and the macro - sentiment is positive with the appreciation of the RMB [2]. PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's domestic polypropylene production was 793,700 tons, a 3.18% decrease from last week but a 10.56% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 76.87%, a 2.53% decrease from the previous period [3]. - **Demand**: The average operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%. Before the New Year's Day, the consumption boost of PP products was weak. Most industries are reducing production according to demand, and the industry's overall operating rate is expected to continue to decline [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 490,700 tons, a 7.99% decrease from the previous period. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene traders decreased by 1.00 million tons, a 5.32% decrease from the previous period. The port sample inventory decreased by 0.24 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous period [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 88, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Profit**: The profits of PP production from externally purchased propylene and PDH improved, while the profits of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based PP production declined. The weekly average export profit of Chinese polypropylene was - 4.14 US dollars/ton, a 352.44% decrease from last week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot absolute price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The US war against Venezuela poses a risk of rising international oil prices, and the macro - sentiment is positive with the appreciation of the RMB [3].