1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to the anticipated supply gap of PX. The PX price is supported by gasoline blending value and the stable recovery of the by - product benzene price. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export prospects of polyester products are optimistic due to positive trade policy adjustments in some overseas countries [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX market is firm under multiple factors, with the PX - naphtha spread expanding to $256, while the PX - mixed xylene spread is under pressure, slightly above $100, limiting the space for increasing PX production to improve efficiency [4]. - **Demand**: The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export inquiries of polyester products have increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export prospects are still optimistic [4]. - **Inventory**: The PTA port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons this week, and the market is slightly destocking [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis continues to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread reaches $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around $200 [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a relatively low - to - neutral level. With the decline in the reformer unit profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - policy factor is neutral. Trump announced that the US will take land - based actions against so - called Venezuelan "drug traffickers" [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: There is no obvious driving force, and the market is expected to be mainly stronger [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it's advisable to wait and watch, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Trump claimed to launch a strike against Venezuela, and Russia will discuss the plan details of the Geneva negotiation with the US next week [6][9]. - **Gasoline**: The US gasoline demand is seasonally weakening, and the gasoline cracking profit is also weakening. Overseas refined oil markets show weakening demand and significant regional differences. North American refinery operating rates have risen to 90%, higher than the five - year average. European gasoline spot prices are under pressure, and regional supply may increase as European refineries gradually resume work [10][17][25]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply and Market Expectation**: The PX supply is shrinking, and the strong market expectation affects the market. The domestic reformer oil supply is continuously tight, and the loads of refineries in Asia are also decreasing, but some are expected to resume production by the end of November [28][45]. - **Arbitrage Space**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened [38]. - **Profit and Production Adjustment**: The profit of selective disproportionation has recovered, but the disproportionation profit is suppressed by pure benzene. Some large - scale aromatic hydrocarbon units have reduced or shut down production due to poor economics. The PX - naphtha spread is maintained at $245/ton, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has narrowed to $105/ton [46][52][59]. - **Price and Demand**: The PX price is stable but tight. The demand is generally healthy, especially the PTA export has new opportunities. The PX price trend is strong, which is significantly beneficial to the PTA market [59][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol port inventory is at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline in coal prices, the ethylene glycol price lacks effective support. New device production increases supply pressure, but the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support downstream demand [81]. - **Gasoline**: The Asian gasoline profit remains strong [83]. - **Polyester**: The polyester industry maintains a high load, and the weaving load is optimistic. The export demand may boost the market [91][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year, and it is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price on 2025/11/28 was 5615, with an unchanged value, a 2529 basis, a 215 basis against 2601, and a 2532 change in basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price was 0, with a - 5800 change, a 100 basis, a - 5500 basis against 2601, and a - 5797 change in basis [4] Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The price of SR01 was 5400, with a - 3 change, and the spread between SR01 and SR05 was 73, with a - 5 change [4] - The price of SR05 was 5327, with a 2 change [4] International Market Exchange Rates - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1002, with a 0.0065 change [4] - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against RMB was 1.2818, with a 0.0212 change [4] - The exchange rate of the Indian rupee against RMB was 0.084, with a - 0.0004 change [4] International Commodity Futures Market - The price of ICE raw sugar主力 was 15.21, with a 0.09 change [4] - The price of London white sugar主力 was 573, with a 3 change [4] - The price of Brent crude oil主力 was 62.32, with a - 0.6 change [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. Report's Core View - Gasoline cracking margins have declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX market has remained strong amidst multiple factors. The increase in PX prices is mainly supported by the value of gasoline blending and the stabilization and recovery of the by - product benzene price. The PX - naphtha spread has further widened to $256, while the spread between PX and mixed xylene remains under pressure, just slightly above $100, limiting the space to increase efficiency by increasing PX production. Domestic rumors of unit overhauls are positive for PX, and some South Korean producers are even considering taking offline toluene - route PX units in December. Domestic PTA manufacturers benefit from India's cancellation of the BIS certification restriction on PTA imports, improving export prospects and boosting PX procurement sentiment. The strong PX price significantly benefits the PTA market. Currently, the PTA supply has tightened slightly, while the polyester industry's operating rate has remained stable, with the overall load maintained above 90%. Thanks to the positive adjustments of trade policies in some overseas countries, the export inquiries for polyester products have increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export outlook is optimistic. The costs of bottle chips and staple fibers follow suit [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4610 to 4635, a change of 25; MEG inner - market price decreased from 3900 to 3882, a change of - 18; PTA closing price increased from 4632 to 4700, a change of 68; MEG closing price increased from 3873 to 3885, a change of 12; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6365 to 6390, a change of 25; short - fiber basis decreased from 140 to 134, a change of - 6; 12 - 1 spread decreased from 80 to 110, a change of - 30; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 965 to 990, a change of 25; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5707 to 5731, a change of 24; hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5707 to 5731, a change of 24; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5807 to 5831, a change of 24; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 755 to 760, a change of 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 459 to 468, a change of 9; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3935 to 3910, a change of - 25; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price increased from 14480 to 14495, a change of 15; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1607 to 1584, a change of - 22; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7080; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 632 to 617, a change of - 15; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7580 [2]. Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 60 to 6250. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were stable, and the prices of traders increased slightly. Downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases, and the factory sales volume was limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6140 - 6460 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6260 - 6580 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6190 - 6350 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. Polyester bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5710 - 5800 yuan/ton, with the average price increasing by 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side offers followed the increase, with the market negotiation focus rising [2]. Industry Operating Rates - The direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber sales volume increased from 46.00% to 53.00%, a change of 7.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在80.22%环比增加1.38%，同比减少0.31%；其中电石法在83.61%环比增加2.30%，同比增加3.26%，乙烯法在72.38%环比减少0.73%，同比减少8.69%。 | | | | （3）本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在5.058万吨，较上期减少0.30万吨。本周常规性检修减少，影响 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PARTONE 主要观点及策略概述 棉花：需求阶段性改善，关注供应端潜在利多 【棉花（CF)】 需求阶段性改善，关注供应端潜在利多 国贸期货农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 目前仍处于新棉加工检验集中上量期间，预计持续至四季度末，新棉集中上市对现货的卖压还在持续。市场预期明年1-2月中央一号文件将下调未来三年的 棉花目标直补价格，明年3月国内外种植意向面积也有调降可能，4月是国内产区天气季节性炒作窗口，金三银四是传统需求旺季。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 目前下游纱厂原料库存偏低，补库意愿较为积极，同时在当前期现估值偏低的大背景下，四季度末至明年一季度初的春节前，季节性节前补 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner recently as there has been a certain amount of cancellation of warehouse receipts and registration of new warehouse receipts [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5198 yuan/ton (up 0.27% day-on-day, down 0.57% week-on-week), SP2512 was 4704 yuan/ton (up 0.73% day-on-day, down 1.71% week-on-week), and SP2605 was 5248 yuan/ton (up 0.27% day-on-day, down 0.72% week-on-week) [6] - **Spot Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton (unchanged day-on-day, down 0.92% week-on-week), Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton (unchanged day-on-day, down 0.58% week-on-week), and broadleaf pulp Golden Crown was 4400 yuan/ton (unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week) [6] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In November 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton (down 2.86% month - on - month), Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton (up 3.92% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month) [6] - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton (down 2.83% month - on - month), Brazilian Goldfish was 4344 yuan/ton (up 3.87% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 4830 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month) [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons (unchanged month - on - month), and broadleaf pulp was 131.8 tons (down 2.80% month - on - month). The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in late October 2025. The pulp shipment volume to China decreased by 7.49% [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.2 tons (down 0.1 tons from the previous period, down 0.05% month - on - month), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.1 tons [6] - **Demand**: In late November 2025, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated. Recently, wood - pulp paper companies have issued price increase letters, with only white cardboard having a good implementation situation [6] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 28, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 466 with a quantile level of 0.948, and the Silver Star basis was 696 with a quantile level of 0.911 [6] - **Import Profit**: On November 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, and that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56 [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market mainly focuses on demand changes, with weekly demand remaining stable and prices being supported. In the medium - term, due to the release of energy storage demand, prices tend to rise, but there is downward pressure on prices in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 93,750 yuan, up 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 91,300 yuan, up 450 yuan [1] Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 94,560 yuan, down 0.32%; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 94,640 yuan, down 0.36%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 94,700 yuan, down 0.5%; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 94,800 yuan, down 0.59%; lithium carbonate 2604 has a closing price of 96,260 yuan, down 0.84% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has a price of 1,150 yuan, up 24 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has a price of 1,665 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has a price of 2,600 yuan, up 10 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has a price of 9,125 yuan, up 225 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has a price of 10,525 yuan, up 275 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,340 yuan, up 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,700 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,400 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,650 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,450 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2,670 yuan, down 150 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 80 yuan, down 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 140 yuan, up 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 115,968 tons, down 2,452 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 24,324 tons, down 1,780 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,984 tons, down 2,452 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 49,660 tons, up 1,780 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 5,441 tons, down 21,340 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,461 yuan, with a profit of - 1,012 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 94,750 yuan, with a profit of - 4,604 yuan [3] Industry News - This week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 265 tons and inventory decreased by 2,452 tons; the national new - type energy storage installed capacity exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan", accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity [3] Market Expectation - The market expects that the permit for Ningde Times' Xiawo Mine will be issued in mid - January at the latest, and possibly in December at the earliest, and the subsequent impact on the ore price will gradually decrease [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 02 PART TWO 行情回顾 油脂：天气及政策扰动较多，观望为主 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性偏空 | （1）马来棕榈油产地库存高位、国内四季度到港预期增加；（2）国内四季度去库预期仍在；（3）菜油近端供给或迎来补充。 | | 需求 | 观望 | （1）产地方面印尼生柴政策积极推进中，B40带来支撑、但B50落地时间较远难带来驱动；（2）原定10月31日敲定的生柴RVO未落定，观望；（3）豆 油国内消费稳定、另有出口端支撑；（4）菜油冬季消费旺季在即。 | | 库存 | 观望 | 国内油脂总库存仍处高位，菜油因原料短缺持续去库，棕榈油因贸易商大量买船有补库预期，豆油则需关注美豆进口后的去向（国储/商 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After the recent adjustment, the allocation value of bonds has started to emerge, with the yields of 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds approaching the levels when the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading in late October, increasing the attractiveness to allocation-oriented institutions [8] - The market will focus on the official PMI data for November and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, which may provide new directional guidance for the market [8] - In the short term, the pattern of a ceiling and a floor for bonds is difficult to break, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the expectation of an interest rate cut is strengthened at the beginning of next year, the bond market is expected to rise [8] - In the medium to long term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge facing China's economic development. With the marginal decline of the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt-driven models, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue, which is favorable for bond futures [8] - The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, creates a low-interest rate environment, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures were relatively stable at the beginning of the week, but there was a significant turning point on Wednesday, with a sharp decline in the late trading. The decline of long-term contracts was significantly greater than that of short-term contracts. The 30-year treasury bond futures main contract had a single-day decline of 0.86%, and the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts had declines of 0.36%, 0.22%, and 0.05% respectively [4] - The decline was mainly driven by news factors. The market rumor on Wednesday that the central bank's bond purchase scale this month was only 20 billion yuan, significantly lower than market expectations, and the large-scale fund redemption on the same day further exacerbated the market selling pressure. The low volatility background and fragile trading sentiment in the market amplified the decline [4] - Before the significant adjustment on Wednesday, the treasury bond market had been in a low-volatility sideways state for several weeks, lacking a clear trading theme. The traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect did not appear, reflecting investors' lack of confidence in going long due to concerns about the lack of further monetary policy easing and the wait-and-see attitude towards the new regulations on public fund sales [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data and charts on open market operations (including currency issuance, currency withdrawal, and net currency issuance), medium-term lending facilities (including amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, various capital prices (such as deposit-based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond pledged repurchase rates), and spreads, as well as LPR, deposit reserve ratios, and treasury bond and US treasury bond yields and term spreads [10][12][19] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data and charts on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures [45][53][60]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 海外汽油裂差调整，辛烷值组分有所走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：调油料有所走弱，纯苯苯乙烯价格震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯经济学，苯乙烯与石脑油价差约为225美元，苯乙烯与苯的价差更为坚挺，为130美元，非一体化装置经济效益仍然非常负面。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 截至2025年11月24日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：16.4万吨，较上期库存14.7万吨累库1.7万吨，环比上升11.56%；较去年同期库存12.50万吨累库 3.9万吨，同比上升31.20%。供给端检修传闻有所增加，海外由于衍生品的低开工率，需求依然不佳。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至2025 ...