Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon market show both supply and demand increasing. The continuous resumption of production by large northwest manufacturers drives up industrial silicon output. On the demand side, affected by the resumption of production in Qinghai and the ramping - up of new capacities in other regions, the production schedule of polysilicon in October is expected to increase. With the organic silicon production schedule in October being basically stable, silicon prices may fluctuate [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Content Futures Market - SI2510: Closing price is 8660, change rate is 1.23%, and open interest is 1183 [1] - SI2511: Closing price is 8570, change rate is - 0.12%, and open interest is 142381 [1] - SI2512: Closing price is 8945, change rate is - 0.28%, and open interest is 112415 [1] - SI2601: Closing price is 8875, change rate is - 0.34%, and open interest is 124630 [1] - SI2602: Closing price is 8885, change rate is - 0.34%, and open interest is 22957 [1] Spot Market - In the East China region: 553 (non - oxygen - passing) price is 9300 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9400 with no change; 421 price is 9700 with no change; 441 price is 9650, up 200; 3303 price is 10550 with no change; 553 (flux - passing) price is 9450 with no change [1] - At Huangpu Port: 421 price is 10100 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9300 with no change [1] - At Tianjin Port: 421 price is 9850 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9600 with no change [1] - In Sichuan: 421 price is 9750 with no change [1] - DMC price is 11300 with no change; 107 glue price is 11500, down 2000; polysilicon (dense material, per kilogram) price is 51.25 with no change; average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21050, up 50 [1] Price Spread - SI2510 - SI2511 spread is 90, up 120; SI2511 - SI2512 spread is - 375, up 10; 421 spot - 553 oxygen - passing spot spread is 300 with no change; basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) is 830, down 50 [1] Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt - Total warehouse capacity is 280,000 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts yesterday was 42684, and today it is 42090, a decrease of 594 [1] Industry News - The environmental impact assessment public participation first - phase information of the 90,000 - ton organic silicon product project of Jiangxi Fuxin Organic Silicon Technology Co., Ltd. was released on the Jiujiang government website [1]

IC ERING 2 3500 FEE 3 1 30 V 贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 方 网 官 www.itf.com.cn | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC EN .. | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 中金属数据日报 | | | 方冒起 | 国贸期货研究员 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 2025/10/16 | | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | | | 价格指标 15:00期货价格 | 现货价格 | 变化 (%) | 变化 (%) 图表 | | | 制 10553. 5 | 10600 | -0.16 | -2. 44 LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | 锌 2924. 5 | 3049 | -2.24 | -3.69 | | | LME 2725.5 品 | 1940 | -0. 84 | 1500000 -1. 43 | | | (美元/吨) | | | | | | 镍 15110 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic supply - demand situation of urea remains loose, and the recent market still has a downward trend. The market is mainly affected by macro and cost - side positives and weak domestic demand negatives, and is generally in a state of waiting while fluctuating [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The price of pulverized coal is 465.00, the price of smokeless small pieces is 920.00, and the price of natural gas is 3700.00 on October 15, 2025, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, and 20.00 respectively compared to the previous day [1] Price - On October 15, 2025, the prices in Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Shandong, and China FOB remained unchanged from the previous day, while the price in Shanxi increased by 10.00 to 1470.00. The prices of Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR also remained unchanged [1] Inventory - On October 15, 2025, the factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 144.39, 41.50, and 4050.00 respectively [1] Supply - On October 15, 2025, the 5 - day production was 199400.00, the overall开工率 was 85.24, the coal - based开工率 was 89.41, and the gas - based开工率 was 73.39, all remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] Demand - On October 15, 2025, the remaining待发订单 was 7.00, the复合肥开工 was 25.50, the melamine开工 was 65.47, and the formaldehyde开工 was 34.49, all remaining unchanged [1] Profit - On October 15, 2025, the profit of fixed - bed was - 327.00, the profit of water - coal slurry was 142.00, and the profit of natural gas was - 225.00, all remaining unchanged [1] Related Products - On October 15, 2025, the price of liquid ammonia was 2050.00, the price of compound fertilizer was 2450.00, the price of melamine was 5050.00, and the price of methanol was 2160.00 (down 10.00 from the previous day) [1] Futures - On October 15, 2025, the结算 price was 1604.00 (up 2.00 from the previous day), the基差 was - 60.00 (down 3.00 from the previous day), the涨跌幅 was 0.12 (up 0.31 from the previous day), the成交量 was 6117987.00 (down 23124.00 from the previous day), the持仓量 was 322686.00 (up 694.00 from the previous day), and the仓单量 was 6493.00 (down 77.00 from the previous day) [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of the recurrence of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Treasury bond prices are affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, suppressing the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver prices may fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to continuous disturbances in copper - mine supply and improved macro - liquidity, despite the suppression from global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to have limited downward space as they approach the cost line, although the fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces callback risks due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions and repeated risk - aversion sentiment. Zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. in the non - ferrous sector are affected by various factors such as trade uncertainties, policy changes, and inventory levels, and their prices are expected to fluctuate or be under pressure in the short term [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil, soybean oil, and other varieties are affected by factors such as policies, reports, and inventory, and their prices have different trends. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and tariff policies, with different price trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Treasury bonds: Affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, the upward space is limited [1]. - Gold: Prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Despite trade - friction suppression, prices are expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited as it approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Faces short - term pressure, but the opening of the export window may support the domestic price if the LME inventory continues to decline [1]. - Nickel: Prices are mainly affected by the macro - situation in the short term, with high - inventory pressure. Short - term trading is recommended, and there is still pressure from primary - nickel surplus in the long term [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is a risk of callback in the non - ferrous sector, but there are still opportunities to go long at low levels in the long term due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Black metals - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal, the short - term is in a wait - and - see state [1]. - Coking coal: The price is still in the process of bottom - seeking, but it is not suitable to chase short positions for now [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The Indonesian B50 policy may have a negative impact on near - month contracts, and the MPOB September report is expected to support prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The reduction of raw materials and oil - mill压榨 reduction support the price due to factors such as China's rare - earth export restriction and the expected reduction of US soybean ending stocks [1]. - Rapeseed oil: There is no new driving force, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term with the new - cotton listing [1]. - Sugar: The original - sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels in the domestic market [1]. - Corn: New - season corn is under selling pressure, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1]. - Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and US tariff threats [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan's construction rush is likely to be falsified [1]. - Rubber: Affected by factors such as US tariffs, supply increase, and weak market atmosphere [1]. - BR rubber: The raw - material fundamentals are loose, and the downstream trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The domestic production has decreased due to unit maintenance [1]. - Ethylene glycol: The port inventory is low, but the price is under pressure due to imports and device commissioning [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened [1]. - Styrene: The export sentiment has eased, and there is support at the cost end [1]. - PF: The price fluctuates strongly due to factors such as reduced market - price center and increased downstream demand [1]. - PVC: The price fluctuates weakly due to factors such as reduced maintenance and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Calcined alumina: The short - term price is bearish, and the medium - term is bullish [1]. - LPG: The upward momentum is limited due to factors such as OPEC production increase and high domestic inventory [1]. Shipping - Container shipping (European line): The price may rebound at a low level, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the data of commodity options on October 15, 2025, including the main contract prices, price changes, historical volatility, implied volatility, and the main at - the - money IV and its percentile of various commodities. [5][9][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Historical Volatility - Multiple commodities' historical volatility data (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) are provided, such as for furnace aluminum (20860, 0.00%, 14.58%, 9%, 8%, 8%, 9%), PVC (4692, - 0.59%, 19.21%, 11%, 11%, 19%, 18%), etc. [5] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data show the main at - the - money IV of different commodities, like for polycrystalline silicon (41%, 73%, 13%, 48%), propylene (14%), urea (18%, 53%), etc. [9] Main At - the - Money IV Percentile - The main at - the - money IV percentile value is presented, but specific details are not clearly shown in the text. [13]

Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Data Daily Report [3] Report Date - October 15, 2025 [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 14, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly. The previous low prices attracted better trading, prompting some suppliers to raise prices. However, due to the weak performance of major downstream products, the market buying sentiment remained cautious, and the slightly higher price quotes had poor trading, which limited the upward range of the market [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber was 78.99%, a 1.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was a small loss of 157 yuan/ton [4]. - Although the short - term shutdown of an upstream device in Shandong affected the market in the morning, the impact was considered limited in the afternoon. The butadiene end had a large amount of external resources and good trading performance. The downstream remained on the sidelines due to trade frictions and the slightly weak natural rubber market [4]. - Considering that the trading center of private resources was significantly lower than the current ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina, some industry players were cautiously waiting for the price policy adjustment of Sinopec and PetroChina [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The closing price of BR2511.SHF was 10,920 yuan/ton, down 1.28%; the settlement price was 10,825 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The trading volume was 65,011, down 42.59%; the open interest was 29,075, down 9.18% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The delivered price in the central Shandong region was around 8,550 - 8,650 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 8,200 - 8,300 yuan/ton. The market prices in Hangzhou, Jiangsu, and Shandong all decreased [4]. - **Crude Oil Market**: WTI was at 57.84 US dollars/barrel, down 5.24%; Brent was at 62.09 US dollars/barrel, down 4.81% [4]. Production and Profit - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 78.99% [4]. - **Production Profit**: The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was - 157 yuan/ton [4]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - **Market Sentiment**: Trade frictions and the weak natural rubber market made downstream players cautious. Some players were waiting for the price policy adjustment of Sinopec and PetroChina [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: BR was in a consolidation operation; Arbitrage: After the spread widened again, pay attention to going long on BR and short on RU or NR [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices continue to show a weak downward trend due to uncertainties in China-US trade tariffs, which still disrupt global crude oil demand. The crude oil supply-demand situation remains loose. OPEC+ continues its production increase policy and has reached a principled agreement to slightly increase production again in November. From September, crude oil consumption gradually declines, with the end of the US consumption peak season marked by Labor Day in early September. Global crude oil consumption in the off - season drops by 1 - 3 million barrels per day compared to the peak season. Geopolitical tensions have eased, reducing geopolitical risks and allowing more crude oil to enter the market. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure from lukewarm demand and sufficient supply. Although Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week ending October 8, it is expected that the inventory will rise in October due to large supplies received in Asia in September. The spot price difference of fuel oil has increased slightly, but the near - month contract of 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil still maintains a positive price difference structure, indicating abundant immediate supply. With the expected weak performance of international oil prices, fuel oil lacks strong driving forces. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Market**: SC crude oil closed at 448.6 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan or 1.12% from the previous value; FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2700 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.35%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.90% [3]. - **Foreign Market**: WTI crude oil closed at $59.56 per barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil closed at $63.39 per barrel, unchanged; Nymex gasoline closed at $1.8015 per gallon, unchanged; ICE diesel closed at $659.50 per ton, unchanged; Nymex natural gas closed at $3.101 per mmBtu, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Crude Oil Spread**: SC - WTI spread was 3.60 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 16.86%; SC - Brent spread was - 0.23 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 144.66%; Brent - WTI spread was $3.83 per barrel, unchanged; SC monthly spread was - $1.00 per barrel, up $0.30 or - 23.08%; WTI monthly spread was $0.42 per barrel, unchanged; Brent monthly spread was $0.39 per barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Fuel Oil Spread**: FU monthly spread was 17 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 10.53%; LU monthly spread was 7 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 16.67%; FU - SC spread was - 33 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 1.82%; LU - SC spread was 44 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 1.47%; LU - FU spread was 503 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 1.62% [3][4]. 3.3 Spot Prices - **Crude Oil**: Oman crude oil was at $65.6 per barrel, down $1.35 or 2.02%; Russian ESPO was at $60.43 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.45%; Brent Dtd was at $67.67 per barrel, down $2.62 or 3.87% [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at $377 per ton, down $8 or 2.08%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at $452.5 per ton, down $10 or 2.21% [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **US EIA Data**: Crude oil commercial inventory was 420,261 thousand barrels, up 3,715 thousand barrels or 0.89%; gasoline inventory was 219,093 thousand barrels, down 1,601 thousand barrels or 0.73%; distillate oil inventory was 121,559 thousand barrels, down 2,018 thousand barrels or 1.63%; US production was 13,629 thousand barrels per day, up 124 thousand barrels per day or 0.92%; refined oil inventory was 44,540 thousand barrels, down 141 thousand barrels or 0.32% [4]. - **Singapore ESG Data**: Fuel oil inventory was 23,699 thousand barrels, up 314 thousand barrels or 1.34% [4]. - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: SC crude oil warehouse receipts were 5,401,000, unchanged; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 45,800, unchanged; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 13,080, unchanged [4]. 3.5 Macro and Shipping Data - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was 99.2595, up 0.4372 or 0.44%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.05%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged; the Baltic BDI was 2,144, up 208 or 10.74% [4]. - **Shipping Data**: The crude oil freight rate BDTI was 1,141, up 22 or 1.97%; the refined oil freight rate BCTI was 551, down 9 or 1.61% [4].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The supply side of industrial silicon is seeing continuous production increases as large northwest manufacturers resume production, while on the demand side, polysilicon production in October has increased more than expected due to capacity resumption in Qinghai and new capacity ramping up in other regions, and the production schedule for organic silicon in October is basically stable. Overall, the fundamentals of industrial silicon show a dual increase in supply and demand, and silicon prices may fluctuate. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - For different contracts (SI2510 - SI2602), the closing prices range from 8490 - 8905, with price declines of -1.87% - -2.36%. The持仓量 varies from 21310 - 162674. [1] Spot Market - In the spot market, different grades of industrial silicon have different prices in various regions. For example, in the East China region, the price of 553 (non - oxygenated) is 9300, 553 (hydrogen - passed) is 9400, 421 is 9700, etc. [1] Price Difference - The price difference between different contracts and different grades of silicon shows various changes. For example, si2510 - si2511 is -30 with a change of -55, and the price difference between 421 spot and 553 oxygen - passed spot is 300 with a change of 50. [1] Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt - There are multiple warehouses and sub - warehouses, with different storage capacities (ranging from 0.15 - 2 million tons), different premium and discount standards (from -800 - 0), and different changes in warehouse receipts. For example, the warehouse receipt of Jianfa Tianjin Binhai decreased by 41, while that of Jianfeng Supply Chain increased by 96. [1] Industry News - The environmental impact assessment public participation first - time information announcement of the 90,000 - ton organic silicon product project of Jiangxi Fuxin Organic Silicon Technology Co., Ltd. was released on the Jiujiang government website. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Supply side: Affected by the resumption of production capacity in Qinghai and the ramp - up of new capacity in other regions, the production schedule of polysilicon in October increased more than expected [1] - Demand side: Due to the quota limit in the fourth quarter, the production schedule of silicon wafers in October may be reduced [1] - Inventory side: Factory inventory and warehouse receipt inventory are accumulating [1] - Policy: The two ministries emphasized not to bid below cost, strengthening the effectiveness of cost support. The "anti - involution" of polysilicon has basically formed a policy framework of "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price", and the medium - and long - term fundamentals of polysilicon may improve. The market sentiment has subsided, and the futures price may fluctuate in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Futures Price and Spread - The closing prices of different polysilicon futures contracts on October 15, 2025, such as PS2510 at 49980, PS2512 at 52390, and PS2601 at 52265, with their respective price changes and spreads like PS2510 - PS2511 at - 10 and PS2511 - PS2512 at - 2400 [1] Inventory - Polysilicon inventory (weekly, in 10,000 tons) is 24, with an increase of 1.4; N - type dense material inventory is 51.25; silicon wafer inventory (weekly, in GW) is 16.78; registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 7950 [1] Spot Price and Basis - The basis between N - type dense material and PS2511 is 1260, and between N - type mixed material and PS2511 is 260 [1] Market News - On October 14, market news said that relevant authorities may issue a document on strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation, and an industry insider close to the authorities said the document may be released soon, involving requirements for limiting the operating rate of existing capacity across the entire industry chain [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current spot price of offset paper has not stopped falling and stabilizing, most double - rotary papers are still slightly declining, and the benefits of the "Golden September and Silver October" have not been reflected. The pulp price increased during the week, compressing the production profit of offset paper. The output increased due to the resumption of production by Chenming Paper, and the inventory increased slightly. The futures market currently has poor capital participation and is generally in a volatile state. The offset paper market is basically in a reasonable operating range, and short - term observation is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - On October 14, 2025, the price of OP2601 was 4216, with a daily increase of 0.14% compared to the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1140, a decrease of 2.48% compared to the previous day [5]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - **Offset Paper**: The prices of various brands of offset paper in different regions showed little daily change. For example, the price of Shandong High - white Swan was 4675 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly change of 0.00%. However, some products had negative weekly changes, such as Yidong High - white Blue Leaf with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [5]. - **Coated Paper**: Similar to offset paper, the daily price changes of coated paper were mostly 0.00%. For instance, the price of Guangdong Chenming Snow Rabbit was 4650 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly change of 0.00%. Some products also had negative weekly changes, like Shandong Chenming Snow Rabbit with a weekly decrease of 2.11% [5]. 3.3 Papermaking Raw Material Data - The prices of different types of pulp in Shandong and Guangdong regions had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of Shandong Coniferous Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.88% and a weekly increase of 0.71% [6]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Data - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: From August 22, 2025, to September 26, 2025, the output of offset paper increased from 19.48 tons to 21 tons, and the capacity utilization rate fluctuated between 52.93% and 56.9% [6]. - **Inventory**: Both the factory - level inventory and social inventory showed little change during the period from August 22, 2025, to September 26, 2025. The factory - level inventory was around 117.81 - 122.7 tons, and the social inventory was around 53 - 53.8 tons [6]. - **Profit**: The production profit of offset paper using chemimechanical pulp as the main raw material was between 541.25 - 629 yuan/ton, and that using hardwood pulp as the main raw material was between 264 - 392 yuan/ton during the period from August 22, 2025, to September 26, 2025 [6].