Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, there may be a mismatch between supply and demand, pushing up prices. In the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged [3]. - The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. After the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of spot price differences, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, and the increasing tender volume indicates strong installation demand. However, the overall increase in supply is the main factor suppressing futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,000 yuan/ton with no change; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,750 yuan/ton with no change, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 72,660 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 72,720 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.6%; lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 72,960 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.36%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 72,940 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.3%; lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 72,800 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 828 yuan/ton with no change; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1025 yuan/ton, lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1725 yuan/ton, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6025 yuan/ton, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7125 yuan/ton [1][2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,530 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 155,800 yuan/ton with an increase of 1200 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 128,500 yuan/ton with an increase of 3000 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 132,650 yuan/ton with an increase of 1000 yuan/ton [2]. Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is 280 yuan/ton with a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 240 yuan/ton with a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 220 yuan/ton with a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 134,801 tons with a decrease of 2024 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 34,747 tons with an increase of 1255 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream enterprises is 59,765 tons with a decrease of 1128 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 40,290 tons with a decrease of 2150 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 33,076 tons with a decrease of 2104 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 73,330 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 1394 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 75,178 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 5225 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - Chinese researchers have solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. A research team has developed an anion regulation technology, and the relevant research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market competition intensifies, and crude oil prices drop significantly. PX market transactions are scarce, and transaction prices plummet. Polyester downstream procurement halts. Asian naphtha cracking operates stably, with the spread between MX and naphtha narrowing from $88/ton last week to $85/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropping to $132, continuing to support PX short - process profits. The US - Asia MX arbitrage window widens to $185, but there is no news of South Korea shipping to the US. Domestic large - scale PTA plants undergo rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production declines. Domestic PTA basis weakens, and demand remains stable. Polyester's operating load rebounds to 91%. Due to weak crude oil, PTA performs poorly. Bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2]. 3. Key Data Summaries Price Changes - PTA spot price drops from 4380 to 4325, a decrease of 55 [2]. - MEG domestic price falls from 4145 to 4114, a decrease of 31 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreases from 6385 to 6375, a decrease of 10 [2]. - Polyester bottle chip prices in the South China market drop, with the average price falling by 20 yuan/ton [2]. Market Conditions - Polyester short - fiber futures fall by 26 to 6050. In the spot market, prices of polyester short - fiber production plants are weakly negotiated, and trader prices decline. Downstream purchases as needed, and there are few transactions in the market [2]. - In the bottle - chip market, PTA and bottle - chip futures operate weakly. Supply - side offers are mainly lowered, downstream end - users replenish stocks with small orders for rigid demand, and the market negotiation atmosphere is cautious [2]. Operating Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) rises from 93.90% to 94.40%, an increase of 0.01 [3]. - Polyester short - fiber production and sales increase from 46.00% to 49.00%, an increase of 3.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remains unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) drops from 51.50% to 51.00%, a decrease of 0.01 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for SP2601, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, 2025, SP2601 was 5170 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; SP2511 was 4856 with a daily increase of 0.21% and a weekly increase of 0.46%; SP2505 was 5240 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 1.08% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On October 15, 2025, softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.36%; Russian softwood pulp was 5000 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.99%; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily and weekly changes [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In October 2025, Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, down 2.78% from the previous period; Japanese - origin pulp was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, softwood pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% from July; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% from July. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - **Production**: From August 14 to September 25, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp fluctuated between 20.6 - 23.8 tons, and the production of chemimechanical pulp fluctuated between 20.8 - 22.3 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 203.3 tons, a decrease of 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease [5] - **Demand**: From August 14 to September 25, 2025, the production of offset paper fluctuated between 19.5 - 21 tons, coated paper between 7.8 - 8.5 tons, tissue paper between 28.04 - 28.2 tons, and white cardboard between 31.5 - 35.9 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 15, 2025, the basis of Russian softwood pulp was 144 with a quantile level of 0.866; the basis of Silver Star was 644 with a quantile level of 0.878 [5] - **Import Profit**: On October 15, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221 with a quantile level of 0.285; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.555 [5] Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Arauco's softwood pulp outer - disk quotes decreased, and hardwood pulp quotes increased [5] - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the peak season on pulp demand has not been reflected [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, pulp inventory showed a decreasing trend [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot market for steel is weak, with poor trading volume and prices. The futures valuation is neutral, and there is currently no driving force for a spot rebound. The strength of demand during the "Silver October" season is insufficient to support price increases, and there are concerns about a negative feedback loop when demand fails to match high production during the off - season [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are mainly oscillating due to insufficient driving factors. In the short - term, alloy plants have a high motivation to maintain production, but there are medium - term concerns. Terminal demand is weak, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - making and electric - furnace operations, which may impact the demand for these alloys [3]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke remains strong, while the futures market continues to oscillate. Although the furnace material data is good, the market is worried about the inventory pressure of steel, and the medium - term futures market may continue to seek a bottom. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile due to the strong spot performance and potential "anti - involution" policies [3]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. The price increase during the holiday was mainly due to unsubstantiated rumors. The supply data has not been significantly affected in the short - term. High iron - making output throughout the year may lead to an oversupply of steel, which may force steel mills to cut production [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On October 15, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3090.00 yuan/ton (down 26.00 yuan, - 0.83%), HC2605 at 3223.00 yuan/ton (down 28.00 yuan, - 0.86%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3034.00 yuan/ton (down 26.00 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2601 at 3212.00 yuan/ton (down 28.00 yuan, - 0.86%) [1]. - **Spreads**: On October 15, the RB2601 - 2605 spread was - 56.00 yuan/ton (down 13.00 yuan), HC2601 - 2605 was - 11.00 yuan/ton (down 3.00 yuan), etc. The roll - screw spread was 178.00 yuan/ton (down 2.00 yuan), and the screw - ore ratio was 3.91 (down 0.01) [1]. Spot Market - **Steel**: On October 15, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3180.00 yuan/ton (down 20.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar was 3120.00 yuan/ton (down 10.00 yuan), etc. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton (down 10.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Other Materials**: On October 15, the price of Qingdao Port super - special powder was 708.00 yuan/ton (down 15.00 yuan), and the price of Ganjimao Port coking coal was 1260.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach or an oscillating trading strategy for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long on the 01 - contract roll - screw spread when it is below 150 for arbitrage. Wait for the opportunity to enter a positive - spread trade in the spot - futures market [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is experiencing a decline due to falling costs, sufficient spot supply, poor downstream polyester filament sales, and weak market confidence. The spot basis has weakened. [2] - The ethylene glycol (MEG) futures are oscillating in a low - range. The spot price in Zhangjiagang has minor adjustments, and the basis negotiation has slightly weakened. [2] - With the approaching end of the polyester peak season and the weakening of the crude oil fundamentals, the polyester market is expected to operate weakly. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 448.6 yuan/barrel on October 14, 2025, to 443.7 yuan/barrel on October 15, 2025, a decrease of 4.90 yuan/barrel. [2] - PTA - SC spread increased from 1180.0 yuan to 1197.6 yuan, a rise of 17.61 yuan; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3620 to 1.3714, an increase of 0.0095. [2] - CFR China PX price increased from 779 to 787, a rise of 8; PX - naphtha spread increased from 212 to 234, a rise of 22. [2] - PTA主力期价 dropped from 4440 yuan/ton to 4422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 dropped from 4380 yuan/ton to 4325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.0 yuan/ton. [2] - PTA现货加工费 dropped from 188.2 yuan/ton to 106.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.3 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 dropped from 263.2 yuan/ton to 203.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59.3 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG主力期价 dropped from 4061 yuan/ton to 4057 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (106.93) yuan/ton to (107.12) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG内盘 dropped from 4145 to 4114, a decrease of 31.0. [2] - POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6520; POY现金流 increased from 137 to 194, a rise of 57.0. [2] - FDY150D/96F dropped from 6710 to 6670, a decrease of 40.0; FDY现金流 increased from (173) to (156), an increase of 17.0. [2] - DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7760; DTY现金流 increased from 177 to 234, a rise of 57.0. [2] - 长丝产销 increased from 46% to 53%, a rise of 7%. [2] - 1.4D直纺涤短 dropped from 6385 to 6375, a decrease of 10; 涤短现金流 increased from 352 to 399, a rise of 47.0. [2] - 短纤产销 increased from 44% to 52%, a rise of 8%. [2] - 半光切片 dropped from 5550 to 5500, a decrease of 50.0; 切片现金流 increased from 67 to 74, a rise of 7.0. [2] - 切片产销 increased from 80% to 129%, a rise of 49%. [2] Industry Chain开工情况 - PX开工率 decreased from 86.21% to 84.62%, a decrease of 1.59%. [2] - PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 77.58%. [2] - MEG开工率 increased from 64.06% to 164.06%, a rise of 100.00%. [2] - 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 89.38%. [2] Industry Background and Future Impact - A new cracking ethylene plant in a Shandong refinery was put into operation in mid - September, involving a pure benzene production capacity of about 230,000 tons/year, toluene 130,000 tons/year, xylene 60,000 tons/year, 1.5 million tons of ethylene, and a supporting 800,000 - ton EG is expected to be put into operation in October. [2] - The spread between MX and naphtha narrowed from 88 US dollars/ton last week to 85 US dollars/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropped to 132 US dollars, continuing to support the short - process profit of PX. [2] - The US - Asia MX arbitrage window expanded to 185 US dollars, but there is no news of South Korea shipping to the US. [2] - Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotation inspections, resulting in a decline in domestic PTA production. [2] - The ethylene glycol inventory in East China ports remains at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are still limited, the overseas ethylene glycol imports are expected to decline, and the domestic plant commissioning is putting continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price. [2] Device Maintenance - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is currently restarting after shutting down around September 23, and another 1.1 - million - ton PTA plant has increased its load after operating at a low load last week. [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.03 bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -1.44 bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a 19.00 bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a 1.00 bp change [3]. - SHBOR 3M was at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.75 bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 0.50 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.76 with a 0.60 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a - 0.50 bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 43.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [3]. - This week, 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. 2. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.48% to 4606.3, SSE 50 rose 1.36% to 3001.3, CSI 500 rose 1.38% to 7294, and CSI 1000 rose 1.5% to 7483.4 [5]. - Industry sectors generally rose, with automotive, aviation, power grid equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while shipping and small - metal sectors declined [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0729 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 503.4 billion yuan or 17% from the previous day [5]. 3. Futures Contracts and Market Outlook - In the futures market, IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed price increases, but their trading volumes and open interests decreased to varying degrees [5]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies and the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC in South Korea at the end of this month [5]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology weights may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as CSI 1000 put options can be considered [5]. - The CSI 300 and SSE 50 indexes are expected to show stronger resilience, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [5]. 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for different contracts were 0.00%, 4.22%, 3.64%, and 2.61% respectively [5]. - IH's were 1.03%, 11.85%, 0.74%, and 0.23% [5]. - IC's were 13.23%, 39.54%, 11.84%, and 10.17% [5]. - IM's were 67.43%, 15.93%, 15.63%, and 13.23% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday (October 15), the domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most industrial products falling and most agricultural products rising [1] - For the black series, the steel market lacks positive drivers, the post - holiday supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price increase pressure persists [1] - For basic metals, market risk preference has declined, but the cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [1] - For energy and chemical products, international oil prices have hit new lows, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term [1] - For oils and fats and oilseeds, the domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support, but there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Commodity Futures Market Performance - Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 4.25%; metals all rose, with silver rising 2.30%; oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybeans rising 0.76%; agricultural and sideline products all rose, with corn rising 0.67% [1] - Energy products led the losses, with low - sulfur fuel oil falling 1.90%; non - metallic building materials all fell, with glass falling 1.74%; the black series mostly fell, with iron ore falling 1.46%; basic metals were mixed, with zinc falling 1.17%; chemicals mostly fell, with asphalt falling 1.10%; new energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate falling 0.60% [1] 3.2 Black Series - The five major steel product inventories increased by 8.68% week - on - week to 1.60072 billion tons last week, with the increase much higher than 3.65% in the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 19.5%. The accumulated inventory needs time to digest, exports face new challenges, and steel supply is expected to remain high, resulting in prominent fundamental contradictions and continuous price increase pressure [1] 3.3 Basic Metals - In the copper market, the intensification of Sino - US game has boosted risk - aversion sentiment and weakened global economic growth expectations. The cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue high - level fluctuations [1] 3.4 Energy and Chemical Products - International oil prices hit new lows since early May, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term due to the uncertainty of the macro - level [1] 3.5 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - The domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support and is in a weak adjustment. The export data of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. The supply of South American soybeans is expected to be strong, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are under pressure. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3.6 Index Performance - The Guomao Commodity Composite Index rose 0.98% from October 14 to October 15 [1] - The Guomao Bulk Commodity Index rose 0.15% [1] - The Guomao Non - Metallic Mineral Products Index rose 0.13% [1] - The Guomao Agricultural and Sideline Products Index fell 0.66% [1] - The Guomao Petroleum and Oil Index rose 1.03% [1] - The Guomao Primary Chemicals Index rose 0.04% [1] - The Guomao Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Index rose 0.27% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Xinjiang region's new - cotton harvest expectation is fulfilled. The purchase price of seed cotton first declined and then increased during the festival, generally showing a stable - with - increase trend. Cotton farmers mainly sell at a reasonable price. The downstream textile industry's "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and yarn mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The outer - market US cotton is running weakly, and short - term cotton may continue to be under pressure, but the downside space may be limited. Be cautious about chasing short positions in case of sharp drops [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalog Cotton Futures and Spot Price Changes - On October 15, compared with October 14, domestic cotton futures CF01 rose 5 points to 13270 with a 0.04% increase; CF05 rose 10 points to 13330 with a 0.08% increase; CF01 - 05 decreased 5 points to - 60. In domestic cotton spot, the price in Xinjiang decreased 85 points to 14513 with a - 0.58% change; in Henan, it decreased 113 points to 14755 with a - 0.76% change; in Shandong, it decreased 82 points to 14676 with a - 0.56% change. Xinjiang - main continuous basis decreased 90 points to 1243 [3] Yarn Futures and Spot Price Changes - Domestic棉纱 futures CY rose 35 points to 19325 on October 15 compared with October 14, with a 0.18% increase. The domestic棉纱 spot C32S price index remained unchanged at 20440 with a 0.00% change [3] Outer - market Cotton Price Changes - CT (USD/ lb) remained at 63 with a 0.00% change; the arrival price decreased 0.1 to 73.30 with a - 0.14% change; the US cotton spot 1% quota pick - up price decreased 18 to 12833 with a - 0.14% change; the sliding - duty pick - up price decreased 6 to 13872 with a - 0.04% change [3] Spread Data Changes - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) increased 30; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) increased 12; the domestic - foreign spread (spot) decreased 64 [3] Market Situation in Different Regions - In Xinjiang, the new - cotton harvest expectation is fulfilled. The purchase price of seed cotton first declined and then increased during the festival, generally showing a stable - with - increase trend. Cotton farmers mainly sell at a reasonable price. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is between 6 - 6.15 yuan/kg, and in southern Xinjiang, it is between 6 - 6.25 yuan/kg. The one - price sales quotation of ginning factories is between 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream textile industry's "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and yarn mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand [3] Outer - market Situation - The outer - market US cotton is running weakly. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of US cotton - related data is suspended, the recession concern deepens, and there is no news about the Sino - US tariff negotiation, which drags down the US cotton price [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 15, the Fed Chair Powell's speech suggesting a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction and not refuting the market's October rate - cut expectation led to a weaker US dollar index, boosting precious metal prices. Gold hit new highs, and silver was supported by high leasing rates. In the short - term, factors like Sino - US trade uncertainty, the ongoing US government shutdown, and a high probability of a Fed rate cut in October will support gold prices. Silver may face adjustment risks if the physical shortage eases. In the long - term, factors such as Fed rate - cut space, global geopolitical uncertainty, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, London gold spot rose 2.2% to $4197.46/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.1% to $52.44/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $4214.90/ounce, CONEX silver rose 3.0% to $51.43/ounce, AU2512 rose 2.3% to 960.34 yuan/gram, AG2512 had 0.0% change at 11533 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 2.4% to 957.30 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 3.8% to 11930 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From October 14 to 15, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread changed by - 23.4% to - 3.04 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread changed by - 1068.3% to 397 yuan/kilogram, the gold TD - London spread changed by - 75.8% to - 0.79 yuan/gram, the silver TD - London spread changed by - 15.6% to - 1412 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose 2.3% to 83.27, the COMEX + London ratio fell 0.7% to 81.95, the AU2602 - 2512 spread changed by - 757.4% to - 18.54 yuan/gram, and the AG2602 - 2512 spread had 0.0% change at 24 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.2 Position Data - From October 13 to 14, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.25% to 1021.45 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.13% to 15733.09127 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold rose 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position rose 9.43% to 66059 contracts, the non - commercial net long position rose 0.13% to 266749 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position fell 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position rose 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.04% to 75099 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 3.07% to 1030429 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.16% to 39660680 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.88% to 515632550 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Other Market Data - From October 14 to 15, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.05, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.22% to 3.48%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.14% to 4.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.49%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 9.35%, the VIX fell 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 1.63% [4].

Report Summaries 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating suggests a range-bound market with a recommendation to wait and see [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current situation of the global oil and fat market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and production and export data from major producers. It also highlights policy changes in Indonesia and the production progress of soybeans in Brazil and the United States [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On October 15, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9420, 9260, and 9200 respectively, each down 80 from the previous day [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: Prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu on October 15, 2025, were 8420, 8520, and 8590 respectively, each down 30 from the previous day [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: Prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu on October 15, 2025, were 10150, 10190, and 10470 respectively, each down 30 from the previous day [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On October 15, 2025, it was - 1070, up 20 from the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On October 15, 2025, it was 1680, down 39 from the previous day [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 500; soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 850 to 26294; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained at 7590 [1] International Market Conditions - **India**: In September 2025, total vegetable oil imports were 1639743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports decreased significantly, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports increased [2] - **Indonesia**: Plans to raise the crude palm oil (CPO) export tax from 10% to 15% to fund the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel. B50 is in the final testing stage, with full - scale testing expected in Q2 2026 and official implementation in the second half of the same year [2] - **Malaysia**: In September 2025, palm oil production was 184.12 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 1.06%. From October 1 - 10, 2025, production increased by 6.59% month - on - month. Exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.9% (ITS) and 19.4% (AmSpec) compared to the previous month [2] Domestic Market Conditions - **Soybean Production**: As of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 11.1%. As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the harvest rate was 19% [2]