1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for steel investment [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Neutral. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [69]. - Iron Ore: Bearish. The report advises holding short positions for unilateral trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [118]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is currently facing a situation where the supply - demand structure has not deteriorated significantly, but the inventory of hot - rolled coils is a pressure point. In December, attention should be paid to new macro - trading expectations, and the production of molten iron may decline further. The market is in a state of range - bound oscillation [5]. - The coking coal and coke market has seen the first round of price cuts, and the futures market has priced in 3 - 4 rounds of price cut expectations. Although the steel data is still good, the coking coal price has weakened due to the slowdown in downstream restocking. The market may need to wait for the start of the next round of downstream restocking in mid - December [69]. - The iron ore market is under pressure as the inventory has increased again. With stable supply and weakening demand in the future, the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly. The decline in steel mill profitability may lead to production cuts, and the iron ore price is difficult to break through the upper range, so it is advisable to short at high prices [118]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: The molten iron production has continued a slight decline, with a decrease of 1.6 to 234.68 wt in the current week. The daily consumption of scrap steel has remained stable, matching last year but lower than 2023. In the future, molten iron production is likely to decrease, and there are still some production - cut plans in December [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly supply - demand structure of steel has not deteriorated further. The total inventory has continued to decline, and the apparent demand has slightly weakened, but there are no major contradictions. This year's demand has shown a differentiated pattern: rigid demand provides support, speculative demand is occasionally active but generally weak, and external demand is rigid, with a slight decline in exports after October [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has continued to decline, but the hot - rolled coil inventory and de - stocking pressure are relatively obvious. The inventory of rebar is in a healthier state, but the absolute levels of hot - rolled coils and cold - rolled coils are higher than in previous years, and the inventory de - stocking is slow [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of both hot - rolled coils and rebar has weakened. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 100, with a weekly decline of 13; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) was - 12, with a weekly decline of 12 [5]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit of long - process steelmaking is meager, and most electric furnaces are in the red. The profitability rate of steel mills is 35%, with a weekly decline of 2.6% [5]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, making it more suitable for cash - and - carry arbitrage. From an industrial perspective, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [5]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: In December, attention should be paid to new macro - trading expectations, such as the game of the new round of interest - rate cut expectations in the United States, the Central Economic Work Conference in China, and an important Politburo meeting at the end of the year [5]. - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. In the short term, the market is in a range - bound state. Wait for the implementation of the production - cut logic and then observe the start of the winter restocking drive [5]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The supply - demand situation of steel is good, with the apparent demand of five major steel products at 855.71 (+5.80) and production at 888.00 (-6.16). However, the profitability rate of steel mills has decreased to 35.06% (-2.60%), and the daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills has decreased to 234.68 (-1.60). There is still an expectation of a decline in molten iron production [69]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The domestic coking coal supply has limited recovery. Although some mines in the main production areas have resumed production, some are still restricted by underground conditions, and recent safety inspections have affected a small number of mines. Mongolian coal trading is sluggish, while the quotation of overseas coal has risen. As of November 27, the CFR quotation of Australian Peak Downs coal was 215.85 US dollars (+1.65) [69]. - **Coke Supply**: The coke supply has increased. This week, the daily coke production was 110.1 (+1.2), and the coking profit was 46 (+27). With the decline in raw coal costs and the end of equipment maintenance and the resumption of production restrictions, the coke supply has recovered rapidly [69]. - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises have slowed down their procurement rhythm, mainly consuming raw material inventories, while upstream enterprises have continued to accumulate inventories, putting downward pressure on prices [69]. - **Basis/Spread**: The first round of coke price cuts has been launched. After implementation, the warehouse - receipt cost is 1700, and the port trade quotation has fallen in advance, with a warehouse - receipt cost of 1600. The futures price around 1570 has priced in 3 - 4 rounds of price cut expectations. The warehouse - receipt cost of Mongolian coal is 1174, but the actual cost should be lower due to warehouse - receipt processing issues, and the near - month contracts are at a certain discount [69]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 35.06% (-2.60%), and the coking profit is 46 (+27) [69]. - **Summary**: In December, pay attention to whether the market logic will shift. From a fundamental perspective, the steel data is still good, but coking coal prices have weakened due to downstream restocking slowdown. From a valuation perspective, the decline may be nearing its end, but from a driving perspective, the market may need to wait for the start of the next round of downstream restocking in mid - December [69]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipment data has decreased by 20.2 tons per day week - on - week to 443 tons per day. Australia's shipments have decreased by 34.0 tons per day, Brazil's have increased by 6.7 tons per day, and non - mainstream mines' have increased by 7.1 tons per day to 83.4 tons per day. China's arrival volume has increased by 23.1 tons per day, with Australia's arrival increasing by 31.6 tons per day, Brazil's decreasing by 2.3 tons per day, and non - mainstream arrivals decreasing by 6.2 tons per day [118]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production of steel mills has slightly decreased to 234.68 tons (-1.6). The profitability ratio of steel mills has continued to decline, dropping by 2.6% to 35.06%. According to the maintenance plan, molten iron production is expected to continue a slight decline. The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased by 1.67 tons to 345.06 tons, and the port inventory has increased by 166.37 tons, exceeding the level of the same period last year [118]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of 47 ports has increased by 166.37 tons week - on - week. With stable supply and weakening demand in the future, the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [118]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to affect molten iron production [118]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [118]. - **Summary**: Although the Wenhua Index has been strong, the Black Chain Index has been weak. Iron ore has reached the upper limit of the range - bound oscillation. Fundamentally, the short - term arrival volume has increased, and the subsequent shipments will remain stable. In the medium term, the inventory will continue to accumulate under the pressure of molten iron production. The decline in steel mill profitability may lead to production cuts, and the iron ore price is difficult to break through the upper range, so it is advisable to short at high prices [118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "buying on dips for single - side trading" and "waiting and seeing for arbitrage" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Thailand floods and the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season have increased the bullish sentiment for rubber. Currently, raw material prices are strongly supported, mid - stream inventories have slightly increased, downstream demand has remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. In the short term, the sentiment in the commodity market is weak, and it may maintain a range - bound performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main View and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In the domestic产区, Yunnan's raw material acquisition volume has weakened, and Hainan's raw material output has decreased. In the Thai产区, the northeast is in the peak production period with falling cup - rubber prices, while the south is affected by floods, with firm glue prices. The situation in the Vietnamese产区 is similar to that in the Thai northeast [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points month - on - month and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year; that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month - on - month and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [3] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber on the SHFE also increased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread have widened. The former is due to capital speculation on Shanghai rubber, and the latter is affected by the news of expanding the delivery products of NR and other factors [3] - **Profit**: It is a mixed situation. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex has deepened losses, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk rubber has changed little [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is in the upper - middle position, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. Near the end of the year and during the contract roll - over period, the risk preference of funds has decreased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled, so the commodity market mostly maintains a volatile trend [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Review**: Rubber showed a strong and volatile trend this week. The domestic产区 is entering the production - reduction and rubber - cutting season, and there is a risk of floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam, increasing the expectation of supply tightening. Supported by high raw material prices, the 1 - 5 month spread of Shanghai rubber has strengthened, showing a contango structure. As of November 28, the RU main contract closed at 15,410 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton (+1.12%) week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.08%) week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [9] - **Disk Position**: The position transfer of the RU main contract has accelerated, with a decrease in RU positions and an increase in NR positions [17][24] - **Disk Spread**: The RU - NR spread has widened significantly [31] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: There has been excessive precipitation in southern Thailand [40] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have been firm [49] - **Production in Main - Producing Countries**: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). From January to October, China imported 5.2281 million tons of natural rubber (+17.27%) [72][91] - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory has slightly increased. As of November 23, 2025, it was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month [98] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The operating rate of all - steel tires has rebounded, while that of semi - steel tires has declined. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [107][115] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In October, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, and heavy - truck sales were about 93,000 [122][132] - **Tire Exports**: From January to October, tire exports were 8.03 million tons (+3.8%), with the cumulative growth rate narrowing. In October, the export volume and value of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [133] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk rubber has been in a loss [141] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The futures - spot price difference of the mixed rubber has rebounded [152]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆大幅下跌后预计震荡运行 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-1 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆大幅下跌后预计震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 据悉，智利Arauco公司11月阔叶浆明星报价550美元/吨，本色浆金星报价620美元/吨。2025年11月中国纸浆产量为234.2万吨，环比下 降1.7%。 | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主流纸厂均发布新一轮涨价函，生活用纸价格略有上涨；观测后续落实情况。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至2025年11月27日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：217.2万吨，较上期去库0.1万吨，环比下降0.05%，库存量在本周期整体变动不 大，趋势呈现小幅去库的走势。 | | 投资观点 | 阔 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for caustic soda is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are declining and the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply side has seen an increase in production due to reduced maintenance, while the demand side has a decline in alumina production and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory has been accumulating, and profits are under pressure, resulting in an overall market with no clear short - term driving force, expected to be mainly oscillating [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of sample enterprises with a caustic soda capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. Loads in North China, Central China, and East China all increased [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production decreased, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20%. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02% [3] - **Inventory**: Recently, downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods was poor, leading to an accumulation of caustic soda inventory. Factory inventory was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 29.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.01% [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the current main contract was around 57, and the futures price was at a discount [3] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70%. The price of liquid chlorine was stable, while the price of caustic soda decreased, resulting in a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price was neutral, and the absolute futures price was low. The near - month contract was near par [3] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the futures market traded based on fundamentals [3] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there was no clear driving force for the futures market, which was expected to mainly oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There were no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategies recommended for the time being [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The Shandong spot market was weak this week, and the bottom support of the futures market was weak. In the short term, with less future maintenance and the impact of new production capacity, supply pressure increased. Alumina production continued to decline, and the procurement rhythm of caustic soda slowed down, leading to an increase in factory inventory pressure. Spot prices were expected to decline in an oscillating manner [6] - **Position**: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [24] 3.3 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Caustic Soda - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, leading to an increase in electricity prices [32] - **Device Loss and Production**: The loss of devices decreased, and production in North China increased due to reduced maintenance [35][37] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali decreased [38] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [41] - **Alumina**: The production of alumina recovered, but inventory accumulated. The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profits were good and stable year - on - year [53][64] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [65][66] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate of the liquid chlorine downstream industry rebounded [73] - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in East China, Central China, and Southwest China had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026 [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The index is in the process of bottom - building and fluctuating. Traders are advised to choose the right time to go long. The recent market adjustment provides an opportunity for the index to rise further next year. Traders can gradually establish long positions during the market adjustment phase and use the discount structure of index futures to improve the probability of long - term investment success. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - to late December, which will provide key guidance for policy focus and market capital layout in 2026 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: Slightly bearish. The PMI data is mixed. The official manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, with a slight improvement in supply and demand, but the non - manufacturing business activity index fell to the contraction range [3] - **Macro Policy**: Slightly bullish. Six departments issued a plan to promote consumption, aiming to optimize the consumer goods supply structure and enhance the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth [3] - **Overseas Factors**: Slightly bullish. The likely new Fed Chair is dovish, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut has risen from about 60% last week to 89% [3] - **Liquidity**: Neutral. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 1347.4 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3] - **Investment View**: The index is in the process of bottom - building and fluctuating. Traders can choose the right time to go long, and focus on the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - to late December [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Bottom - building and fluctuating, choose the right time to go long. Pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3.2 Part Two: Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.64% to 4526.7; the SSE 50 rose 0.47% to 2969.6; the CSI 500 rose 3.14% to 7031.6; the CSI 1000 rose 3.77% to 7334.2 [5] - **Futures Performance**: The IF main contract of the CSI 300 rose 1.46%, the IH main contract of the SSE 50 rose 0.44%, the IC main contract of the CSI 500 rose 2.71%, and the IM main contract of the CSI 1000 rose 3.19% [6] - **Industry Index Performance**: Most Shenwan primary industry indices rose. The communication, electronics, comprehensive, media, and light manufacturing sectors led the gains, while only the banking and transportation sectors fell [8] - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of major index futures decreased. For example, the trading volume of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 21.81%, and the open interest decreased by 6.26% [12] - **Spread Performance**: The spread between the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 was at the 93.6% historical quantile level, and the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at the 47.9% historical quantile level [20] 3.3 Part Three: Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - liquidity**: The central bank conducted 15118 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net withdrawal of 1642 billion yuan. Next week, 15118 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire [26] - **Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: As of November 27, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24645.6 billion yuan, an increase of 107.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total trading volume was 11.6%, at the 96.2% quantile level in the past decade [32] 3.4 Part Four: Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%. The growth rate of industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and other indicators showed different trends [35] - **Real Estate**: The real estate investment growth rate continued to decline, and the prices of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities showed certain fluctuations [35] - **Consumption**: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods showed a certain slowdown, and the growth rates of different consumer goods categories varied [39] - **Corporate Earnings**: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent company and the return on net assets of different indices and industries showed different trends [48][49] 3.5 Part Four: Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - **Macro - policy Trends**: Multiple departments have issued a series of policies to promote consumption, optimize real estate policies, and support economic development. For example, six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand [53] 3.6 Part Five: Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In October, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4%. The unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000 [63] - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have led to trade frictions between the US and other countries, especially China, and have also faced some legal challenges [70][72] 3.7 Part Six: Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of November 21, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.9 times, 11.9 times, 31.1 times, and 44.8 times respectively, at the 77.2%, 87.7%, 67.2%, and 64.2% quantile levels since October 2014 [78] - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors showed different levels of return on net assets, growth rates of main business income, and price - to - earnings ratios [82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the three major monthly reports are pessimistic about demand forecasts. The long - term supply - demand situation remains bearish. With the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, oil prices will still fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA show different trends in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production in October 2025. Overall, the supply situation is bearish [3]. - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, with an overall neutral view [3]. - **Inventory (Short Term)**: As of the week ending November 21, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased. The inventory situation is neutral [3]. - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - Long Term)**: OPEC+ may maintain the oil production level, and Saudi Arabia's production has reached a high level in recent years, showing a bearish trend [3]. - **Geopolitics (Short Term)**: The signals from the US and Russia regarding the Venezuela and Ukraine issues put downward pressure on oil prices, showing a bearish trend [3]. - **Macro - Finance (Short Term)**: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, and the situation is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: Bearish on the oil market [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Rebound and short. Arbitrage: Wait and see [3]. PART TWO: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: This week, oil prices fluctuated. The possible Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and OPEC+ production increase operations pressured the oil market. US refinery operating rates remained high, but macro - demand growth slowed. WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil showed different price trends [6]. - **Monthly Spread & Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [9]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread strengthened [23]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, strengthened [26][38]. PART THREE: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In October 2025, global crude oil production decreased. Different organizations' data on OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production vary. The US weekly crude oil production decreased, imports increased, and exports decreased [59][84]. - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories increased, and Cushing inventories decreased. Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [85][94]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand rebounded, and refinery operating rates increased. In China, refinery weekly crude oil processing volume decreased, but the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased [112][120]. - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December decreased, and the US dollar index rebounded [134]. - **CFTC Positioning**: The speculative net short position of WTI crude oil increased [138].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "Oscillation" rating for the investment view of the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the weather changes in South America. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for the single - side and spot basis. If there are no significant weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to face pressure under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil from December to January, which will drag down the pricing of domestic bean meal. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release situation [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA's current forecast for the 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September. CONAB predicts that the new - crop production in Brazil in 2025/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 22, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 78%. As of November 26, the soybean planting progress in Argentina was 36%. Short - term weather has no obvious drought problems, but attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December. From December to January, domestic soybean and bean meal are expected to seasonally destock. The domestic bean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain, and the reserve release situation needs to be monitored. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink. The global rapeseed production is expected to have a recovery increase in 2025/26 [5]. - **Demand**: For livestock and poultry, the short - term high inventory is expected to be maintained, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Bean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness. Recently, the downstream trading of bean meal is normal, and the提货 performance is good, while the downstream trading and提货 of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are at historically high levels in the same period, the destocking of bean meal inventory is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to accelerate destocking from December to January. The number of days of bean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is continuously destocking [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5]. - **Profit**: The crushing profit of new - crop soybean purchases in China is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [5]. - **Valuation**: From the perspective of the basis, the recent price of the bean meal futures is at a moderately high valuation level [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The China - US soybean procurement agreement has been reached, and China has begun to purchase US soybeans successively, but the quantity and time of purchases are uncertain, which provides support for the US market [5]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is a single - side oscillation and a positive spread between M3 and M5. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of粕类 - **Inventory - to - Use Ratio**: In November, the stock - to - use ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased, and the global soybean stock - to - use ratio also decreased. The stock - to - use ratio of rapeseed decreased [28][34]. - **Planting Progress**: As of relevant dates, the soybean planting rate in Brazil and the planting progress in Argentina are as mentioned above. There are also data on the global rapeseed production, production distribution, and Brazilian planting progress, etc. [5][38][44]. - **Domestic and Foreign Market Data**: The US soybean domestic crushing profit has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume are presented in the data. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and there are also data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean gross profit, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and import crushing profit. The domestic soybean and rapeseed import volumes, inventory data, oil mill operating rates, crushing volumes, bean meal and rapeseed meal trading volume,提货 volume, price difference data, feed production volume, and livestock and poultry breeding profit and related data are also provided [47][54][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates in December landed poorly, and the EC showed a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. - The future market trend will present a weak and volatile pattern. The core driving factors include the landing quality of December freight rates, the implementation strength of the January price increase letter, and the seasonal changes in cargo volume [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logic**: - **Spot freight rates**: Negative. In early December, MSK quoted $2,200, HPL quoted $2,150, OOCL quoted $2,400, CMA quoted $2,650, and ONE quoted $2,200 [4]. - **Political and economic factors**: Negative. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have no specific time to adjust the "Gemini" route; CMA CGM's self - operated ships' return journey is almost 90% resumed, but the west - bound first - leg resumption has not increased; the Suez Canal is expected to fully recover ship traffic and normalize revenue by the end of 2026; Sino - US competition affects third - country trade agreements [4]. - **Capacity supply**: Neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, in October was 245,000, in November was 265,000, and in December was 290,000 [4]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, and there is a differentiation in loading rates between alliances [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Weak and volatile. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the trends of the European line index, the US West line index, and the US East line index through charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI [8]. 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: Charts show the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [13]. - **Delivery Volume**: Charts display the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [16][18]. - **Demolition Volume**: Charts present the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [17][19]. - **Future Delivery**: Charts show the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities by year, quarter, etc. [22][24][25]. - **Ship - breaking Price**: Charts display the ship - breaking price of container ships in different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change [29]. - **Second - hand Ship Price**: Charts show the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of different - age and different - capacity container ships [35][37][39]. - **Existing Capacity**: Charts present the existing capacity of container ships in terms of total volume, different loading capacities, ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and ship - breaking average age [44][47][51]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: Charts show the total capacity deployment, the capacity deployments of PA + MSC, GEMINI, MSC, and OCEAN on the Shanghai - European base port route from week 13 to week 28 [59][61][63]. - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Charts display the situation of container ships with installed desulfurization towers (in TEU, number of ships, and percentage), those under installation, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [70][73][74]. - **Idle Capacity**: Charts show the idle capacity of container ships (in TEU, number of ships, and percentage), idle capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle capacity, and capacity under desulfurization tower installation [78][79][83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - China's purchasing demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America. Weather speculation will be bullish for the single - side and spot basis. Without obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from December to January under the expectation of a Brazilian bumper harvest, dragging down the domestic soybean meal pricing. The 103 - 105 spread is expected to be in a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release situation [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: On November 28th, the basis in Dalian was 96 (up 21), in Tianjin was 56 (up 21), in Rizhao was - 24 (down 9), in Zhangjiagang was - 14 (up 11), in Dongguan was - 44 (up 11), in Zhanjiang was - 24 (up 31), and in Fangcheng was - 44 (up 11) [4] - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong on November 28th, it was 84 (up 121), and MJ - 5 was 199 (down 18) [4] - **Spread Data**: RM1 - 5 was 37 (down 18), the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the main - contract spread was 592 (up 6). The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 435 (down 127) [5] 3.2 Import and Inventory Data - **Import Data**: The 2025 imported soybean's on - paper gross profit per ton was given, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.0420. The on - paper crushing profit per ton was - 181.00 yuan, with a 240 - cent (per bushel) change. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium showed different values for each month [5] - **Inventory Data**: Included China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, with data spanning from 2020 - 2025 [5][6] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: USDA's current forecast for the 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September. The predicted 25/26 Brazilian new - crop output is 1.776 billion tons. As of November 22nd, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 78% (last week 60%, last year's same period 83.3%, five - year average 75.8%). As of November 26th, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 36% (last week 24.6%, last year's same period 45%). Short - term weather has no obvious drought problem, but the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December needs attention. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally destock, and the domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain, requiring attention to reserve release [7][8] - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, with no obvious capacity reduction, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and recent downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal with good pick - up performance [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt market is "weak shock", and the trading strategy for the single - side is also "weak shock", with no arbitrage strategy recommended [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in the off - season with both supply and demand decreasing. Supply is bearish, demand is neutral, inventory is bullish, and cost is bearish. The overall trend of asphalt continues to follow the fluctuations of crude oil, with supply still high year - on - year and demand declining [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, the asphalt market supply showed an increasing trend, driven by refinery restarts and import supplements. Capacity utilization increased, and the scale of maintenance of asphalt units shrank. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [4]. - **Demand**: This week, asphalt demand showed regional differentiation, mainly driven by rigid demand. The demand in the north was affected by low - temperature weather, while that in the south was relatively stable. Modified asphalt demand also varied by region [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, the overall asphalt inventory decreased, including both factory and social inventories. Next week, factory inventories are expected to continue to decline, while trader inventories may increase [4]. - **Cost**: This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated downward. Geopolitical tensions eased, and inventory changes affected oil prices. The average oil price this week decreased compared with last week [4]. - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is "weak shock", and the single - side trading strategy is also "weak shock". Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - It shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025, as well as the basis of asphalt in main regions from 2024 - 2025 [12][13][17]. 3.4 Supply - **Scheduling Expectation**: It shows the monthly asphalt production and scheduling in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, and the annual production in different regions from 2021 to 2025 [20][24][27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [43]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][50][51]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in different regions of China from 2022 to 2025 [55][58]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory in different regions of China from 2022 to 2025 [61]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volume in different regions of China from 2022 to 2025 [64]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 - 2025, as well as the modified asphalt operating rate in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [66][70][73].