Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience in the face of Sino-US tariff policy disturbances in 2025, with the export value from January to September increasing by 7.1% year-on-year, and a growth rate of 8.4% in September, driven by the base effect and the strong performance of mechanical and electrical products [6]. - Mechanical and electrical products have become the core driver of China's foreign trade, with cumulative exports in the first three quarters reaching 12.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, accounting for 60.5% of the total export value. High-tech products in the mechanical and electrical products segment have seen significant export growth, while traditional labor - intensive products have generally declined [6]. - After the rapid escalation of Sino - US tariff policies on Friday, Trump's "TACO" expectation resurfaced. A - shares opened lower and closed higher, with "domestic substitution" related sectors leading the rise. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.31 with a 0.29bp increase, DR007 at 1.45 with a 5.50bp increase, GC001 at 1.35 with a 12.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.49 with a 1.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.10bp decrease, and LPR 5 - year remained unchanged at 3.50 [3]. - **Bond Yields**: The 1 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.35 with a 0.50bp increase, the 5 - year at 1.59 with a 1.75bp increase, the 10 - year at 1.76 with a 1.70bp increase, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond at 4.06 with a 4.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1378 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were no reverse repurchase maturities on the day, resulting in a net injection of 1378 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Market Repurchase and Deposit Maturities - This week, there will be 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the central bank's open market, with 6120 billion yuan and 4090 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively. Additionally, there will be 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing on Wednesday and 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases maturing on Tuesday [4]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - **Stock Index Spot**: The CSI 300 fell 0.5% to 4594, the SSE 50 fell 0.26% to 2967.2, the CSI 500 fell 0.29% to 7376.6, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.19% to 7519.8. Most industry sectors declined, with rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, energy metals, electronic chemicals, and semiconductors rising, while auto parts, consumer electronics, motors, games, and cultural media falling [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: IF当月 fell 0.6% to 4586, IH当月 fell 0.3% to 2966, IC当月 fell 0.4% to 7350, and IM当月 fell 0.5% to 7477. IF trading volume increased by 3.8% to 168279, IH trading volume decreased by 0.5% to 73530, IC trading volume increased by 3.7% to 176728, and IM trading volume increased by 22.7% to 286550. IF open interest increased by 1.7% to 283359, IH open interest decreased by 2.1% to 103523, IC open interest increased by 2.9% to 267579, and IM open interest increased by 4.0% to 371285 [5]. - **Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount**: IF升贴水 was 0.00% for the current - month contract, 4.40% for the next - month contract, 3.72% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.65% for the next - quarter contract. IH升贴水 was 3.09% for the current - month contract, 1.45% for the next - month contract, 1.03% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.41% for the next - quarter contract. IC升贴水 was 32.86% for the current - month contract, 12.51% for the next - month contract, 10.75% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.92% for the next - quarter contract. IM升贴水 was 52.13% for the current - month contract, 15.53% for the next - month contract, 15.50% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.58% for the next - quarter contract [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, supply-demand mismatch may occur and push up prices, but in the long term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The increase in overall supply is the main factor suppressing futures prices. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the economy of independent energy storage has emerged after the increase in capacity electricity price and the expansion of the spot price difference, with strong installation demand indicated by the increase in tender volume [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,100 yuan, a decrease of 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 70,850 yuan, a decrease of 450 yuan [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 829 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1055 yuan, a decrease of 35 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1765 yuan, a decrease of 45 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) has an average price of 5980 yuan, a decrease of 70 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) has an average price of 7070 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,530 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 154,300 yuan, an increase of 1200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 125,200 yuan, an increase of 800 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 131,350 yuan, an increase of 900 yuan [2] Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 820 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 200 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 220 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2024 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,747 tons, an increase of 1255 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,765 tons, a decrease of 1128 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 40,290 tons, a decrease of 2150 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 36,718 tons, a decrease of 5951 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 73,403 yuan, and the profit is - 1368 yuan; the cash cost of外购锂云母精矿 is 76,101 yuan, and the profit is - 6050 yuan [3] Industry News - Chinese researchers have solved the problem of interface contact in all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. A research team led by researcher Huang Xuejie from the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in collaboration with Huazhong University of Science and Technology and the Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has developed an anion regulation technology, which solves the problem of poor contact between the electrolyte and the lithium electrode in all - solid - state metal lithium batteries [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel has a neutral valuation, and the spot market lacks a rebound driver. The steel market is affected by macro - uncertainties and industry - specific factors, with demand being crucial. For the short - term, there is no clear contradiction for a unilateral direction, and there are concerns about negative feedback in the off - season [2]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon lack driving forces and their prices are oscillating. Supply is high, demand is weak, and there are long - term concerns despite short - term production motivation [2]. - Coking coal and coke have strong spot performance but the futures market is oscillating. There are concerns about negative feedback in the short - term, while policies may have a positive impact on supply in the long - term [4]. - Iron ore is affected by trade frictions and supply - demand factors. There is a risk of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 13, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3139.00 yuan/ton (down 27.00 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2605 at 3274.00 yuan/ton (down 25.00 yuan, - 0.76%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083.00 yuan/ton (down 24.00 yuan, - 0.77%), HC2601 at 3261.00 yuan/ton (down 29.00 yuan, - 0.88%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2601 - 2605 at - 56.00 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 at - 13.00 yuan/ton, etc., and the spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread at 178.00 yuan, the rebar - to - ore ratio at 3.83, etc., also had corresponding changes on October 13 [1]. Spot Market - On October 13, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3210.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar at 3180.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil at 3340.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan) [1]. - The base differentials, such as HC main contract at 39.00 yuan/ton, RB main contract at 127.00 yuan/ton, etc., also had changes on October 13 [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading. Focus on the opportunity to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread of the 01 contract when it is below 150. Roll the futures - cash reverse arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal and coke, take a wait - and - see approach for now [6]. - For iron ore, take a short - term wait - and - see approach [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.99% to 927.56 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.84% to 11,531 yuan/kilogram [4] - The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions and the rise of risk aversion sentiment boosted the prices of precious metals to strengthen again. In the short term, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October will keep the gold price strong. Silver will also maintain a strong trend in the short term, but there is a risk of adjustment when the high premium of London silver eases [4] - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The central bank's gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Price Tracking - From October 10 to October 13, London gold spot rose 2.6%, London silver spot rose 3.4%, COMEX gold rose 2.7%, COMEX silver rose 4.3%, AU2512 rose 2.9%, AG2512 rose 4.1%, AU (T + D) rose 2.9%, and AG (T + D) rose 3.7% [3] Spread/Ratio Tracking - From October 10 to October 13, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 8.7%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 62.9%, the spread of gold (TD - London) decreased by 44.5%, the spread of silver (TD - London) increased by 1.0%, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio decreased by 1.1%, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio decreased by 1.5%, the spread of AU2602 - 2512 decreased by 5.4%, and the spread of AG2602 - 2512 decreased by 25.0% [3] Position Data - From October 9 to October 10, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 0.37%, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.05%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.85%, the non - commercial short position of COMEX gold increased by 9.43%, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX gold increased by 0.13%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver increased by 0.97%, the non - commercial short position of COMEX silver decreased by 0.21%, and the non - commercial net long position of COMEX silver increased by 1.43% [3] Inventory Data - From October 10 to October 13, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.82%. From October 9 to October 10, COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.70% [3] Other Market Data - From October 10 to October 13, the US dollar index decreased by 2.22%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 31.83%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.06%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.59%, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 2.17%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 2.71%, and VIX decreased by 5.33% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the medium - and long - term trend of oils and fats is upward, but there may be a short - term correction due to Sino - US trade frictions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Reasons include expected heavy rain in palm oil producing areas in India and Malaysia in the next two weeks, reduced oil mill crushing volume, and a trend of inventory reduction for three major oils [5] - **Demand**: Wait - and - see. The B50 policy in Indonesia is being actively promoted, the US biofuel Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) is undetermined and may depend on trade frictions, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower trading volume compared to the same period [5] - **Inventory**: Slightly bullish. Although the total domestic oils and fats inventory increased last week mainly due to reduced holiday pick - up, it is expected to decline overall later considering soybean oil mills' reduced crushing to support prices and rapeseed oil mills' lack of raw materials [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. There is uncertainty about RVO. Sino - US trade frictions have tightened the outlook for distant - month soybeans, Indonesia's B50 is in road tests and expected to be implemented in the second half of next year [5] - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Long oils and short meals in distant months, and long the January contract and short the May contract for palm oil; Options: Buy out - of - the - money call options [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oils and fats contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5 spreads, and spot price spreads between domestic soybean oil, palm oil, etc [7][9][14] 3.3 Oils and Fats Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows future precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia [19][21] - **Indonesia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [30][34] - **Malaysia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are provided [35][41] - **India Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price spread between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil is given [42][46] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit are shown [48][50] - **US Soybean Situation**: It includes future precipitation and temperature forecasts in US soybean - producing areas, soybean's excellent - good rate, leaf - falling rate, harvesting progress, and US and Brazilian export data [60][70][72] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory are presented [88] - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: Future precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, and relevant export and arrival data are shown [89][98][101] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on rapeseed FOB price, Canadian weekly rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed expected arrival volume, and relevant production, inventory, and trading volume data of rapeseed oil are provided [102][103][112]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the log futures will run strongly [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly. The supply situation has a slightly negative impact, while demand and inventory factors have a positive impact. The valuation is considered neutral [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships), showing a slightly negative impact [4] - **Demand**: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters), indicating a positive impact [4] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters), having a positive impact [4] - **Valuation**: The current log futures delivery cost is between 830 - 840 yuan/m³, with a neutral valuation [4] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals are stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly [4] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures ran strongly. Due to the increase in spot prices and strong fundamentals, there was a slight increase. Currently, the delivery logic is not being traded, and with firm spot prices and inventory not reaching the inflection point, it is expected to continue running strongly. As of October 10, 2025, the total log futures contract open interest was 19,649 lots, a 1.8% decrease from last week. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 9,354 lots, a 24% decrease from last week [7][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 10, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/790/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [17] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. The import volume from New Zealand was 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. The radiata pine import volume was 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [22] - **Expected Shipment from New Zealand**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships) [25] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters). The North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00% (10,000 cubic meters). The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% (10,000 cubic meters). As of September 26, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.774 million cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 847,893 cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period [32] - **Outbound Volume**: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters). Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 12.42% (3,800 cubic meters). The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,300 cubic meters from the previous period [35] - **Wooden Square**: As of October 10, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was also 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is bearish as Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, but the FOB price of softwood pulp decreased [4]. - Demand is bearish as the production and prices of wood - pulp paper have not risen significantly, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has not led to inventory reduction [4]. - Inventory is bearish as of October 9, 2025, the inventory in major Chinese pulp ports increased by 2.2% to 2.077 million tons, remaining at a high level [4]. - Valuation is relatively strong as the basis of hardwood pulp has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [4]. - Investment view suggests an 11 - 1 reverse spread. Pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driver and the pressure from old warehouse receipts is high, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - Supply: Bearish. Suzano's price adjustments and the decrease in softwood pulp FOB price [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Lack of significant increase in production and prices of wood - pulp paper and no inventory reduction during the peak season [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Rising inventory in Chinese ports [4]. - Valuation: Relatively strong. Strengthened basis of hardwood pulp [4]. - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - Investment view: 11 - 1 reverse spread, with a suggestion to wait and see [4]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: N/A; Arbitrage: 11 - 1 reverse spread. Risk focus: Depletion of pulp warehouse receipts [4]. 3.2 PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market** - Pulp futures continued to decline, mainly due to the pricing of the delivery value of old warehouse receipts. There is no large - scale trading of bleached needle - leaf pulp, making it easy to fall and difficult to rise [7]. - As of October 10, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts increased by 16.58% to 392,329 lots, while the open interest of the main contract decreased by 11.16% to 131,626 lots [22]. - **Spot Market** - Hardwood pulp prices rose, while softwood pulp prices fell. For example, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and 180 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - In September, the FOB price of hardwood pulp increased, while that of softwood pulp decreased [19]. 3.3 PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Pulp Supply and Demand - **Imports** - In August, pulp and wood chip imports decreased. For instance, total pulp imports were 2.653 million tons, down 7.79% [5]. - **Inventory** - Chinese port pulp inventory increased, while the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, and that of hardwood pulp mills remained stable [32][35]. - **Downstream Demand** - In September 2025, the production of paper products increased month - on - month. For example, the production of double - offset paper was 729,000 tons, up 0.7% month - on - month [46]. - The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper types remained stable. As of September 2025, the inventory of double - offset paper was 1.83 million tons, up 3.8% month - on - month [53]. - **European and American Markets** - European pulp demand is recovering, and American demand is stable. In August 2025, the available inventory days of European softwood pulp increased by 1.76 to 30.3 days [72]. 3.4 PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread** - The pulp basis weakened. As of September 19, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle - leaf pulp was - 32 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week [81]. - The 11 - 1 month spread narrowed. As of October 10, 2025, it was - 290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [81]. - **Import Profit** - Pulp import profit improved. As of October 10, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was 444 yuan/ton, up 134 yuan/ton week - on - week [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term M01 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic soybean meal inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA's estimated yield per acre of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season may be further reduced. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 8.2% as of October 4. In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to decline, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under the Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the distant months. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream spot trading of soybean meal is good, while the downstream trading of rapeseed meal is cautious [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level. This week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased. Domestic rapeseed stocks have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal stocks have been continuously depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while the profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. - **Valuation**: From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent price of soybean meal futures is at a neutral valuation [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: The Ministry of Transport's announcement of charging special port fees for US ships is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump's announcement of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese - imported goods has escalated the Sino - US trade tension [4]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and arbitrage is on hold. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4]. Part Two: Fundamental Data on Supply and Demand of Meal Products - **Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [33][39]. - **US Soybean Situation**: The sowing rate and excellent - good rate of US soybeans are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has slightly declined. The export sales performance of US soybeans is poor [48][53][65]. - **Import and Price**: The CNF premium of soybeans, the import price of Canadian rapeseed, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real are shown. The monthly import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is also provided [72][75][77]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is at different levels. The inventory of soybeans is at a high level, soybean meal has a slight reduction in inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [80]. - **Trading Volume and Consumption**: The trading volume and consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The spot trading volume of soybean meal has increased, but the holiday pick - up volume has declined [103]. - **Price Difference and Feed Production**: The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the monthly feed production are shown [115][117]. - **Breeding Situation**: The breeding profits and related data of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, including the decline in pig prices and the high weight of pigs [119][123][127]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating weakly" for the corn market. Without significant policy and weather changes, the 01 contract is expected to follow the pricing of the production area and show an oscillating bottoming trend [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is bearish due to new grain concentration, concerns about new grain quality in North China, and reduced import grain supply [4]. - Demand is short - term bullish and medium - term bearish. Feed production increased in August 2025, but high inventory and poor downstream demand limit the increase in demand [4]. - Inventory is bullish as port, feed enterprise, and deep - processing corn inventories are at low levels [4]. - Basis/spread is neutral with the basis at a neutral level [4]. - Profit is bearish for livestock and poultry breeding but improving for deep - processing starch and alcohol [4]. - Valuation is neutral, being slightly high from the planting cost perspective and low from the absolute futures price perspective [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply factors: New grain is concentrated for listing, North Port resumes loading, and import grain supply is reduced. The 25/26 planting cost decreases, and the estimated port - collection price is 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton [4]. - Demand factors: In August 2025, the national industrial feed output was 2936 tons, up 3.7% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the finished product inventory is high [4]. - Investment view: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom out, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress, traders' purchasing mentality, and policy changes [4]. - Trading strategy: The C01 contract is expected to be oscillating weakly, and arbitrage is on hold [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple price trend charts, including the basis trend of the main corn contract, national average price, port prices, and starch prices, as well as charts of futures contract positions and spreads [6][8][11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Supply: North Port corn arrivals are shown, and in August, the import of corn and sorghum was at a low level, and the import of barley declined [20][26]. - Inventory: Port, feed enterprise, and deep - processing corn inventories are at low levels [33][40][59]. - Demand: Feed production data is provided, and deep - processing corn consumption is seasonally increasing, but downstream demand in starch and other industries is weak [42][67]. - Profit: Livestock and poultry breeding is in a loss, while deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are improving [44][67][89]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - The September report shows a slight downward adjustment of the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries in 2025/26 [108]. - Data on US corn export sales, including total and to China, are presented [115][121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations, the European Container Freight Index (EC) shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot freight rate is favorable, but political and economic factors are unfavorable. The supply of shipping capacity and demand are neutral. In the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of cargo owners". The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased and verified, with the second quarter of next year as the first substantial observation point [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Spot Freight Rate**: Bullish. This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500, and the overall quotation range in late October was 2000 - 2200 (MSK's price increase letter indicates 2500 in early November) [3] - **Political and Economic**: Bearish. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods from November 1. China announced new restrictions on rare - earth exports. The US adjusted the 232 - clause tariff on some products. Israel and Hamas reached a peace agreement, but there are still uncertainties [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The average weekly shipping capacity deployment in September was 305,000 TEU, 250,000 TEU in October, 280,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate declined rapidly, lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. The loading rate of GEMINI rebounded due to significant price cuts, while those of the other two alliances continued to decline [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and the 10 - 12 spread trading is in a long - short positive spread. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data on European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices, as well as Maersk's European line quotations [6][12] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on order volume, new - order volume, and order volume by loading capacity [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on future delivery volume, future delivery volume by quarter and season, and future delivery volume by loading capacity [24][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on ship - breaking price by loading capacity and new - shipbuilding price index and price by loading capacity [31] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on second - hand ship price index and second - hand ship price by loading capacity [37] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships**: There are data on existing shipping capacity, existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofitting ratios, average age, and average age of ship - breaking [46][49][53] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: There are data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, and the shipping capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [61][63][65][67][69] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers**: There are data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average age and duration of installation, and average speed [71][72][75] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on idle shipping capacity, idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle shipping capacity, and shipping capacity for desulfurization tower retrofitting [79][80]