Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term M01 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic soybean meal inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA's estimated yield per acre of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season may be further reduced. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 8.2% as of October 4. In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to decline, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under the Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the distant months. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream spot trading of soybean meal is good, while the downstream trading of rapeseed meal is cautious [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level. This week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased. Domestic rapeseed stocks have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal stocks have been continuously depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while the profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. - **Valuation**: From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent price of soybean meal futures is at a neutral valuation [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: The Ministry of Transport's announcement of charging special port fees for US ships is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump's announcement of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese - imported goods has escalated the Sino - US trade tension [4]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and arbitrage is on hold. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4]. Part Two: Fundamental Data on Supply and Demand of Meal Products - **Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [33][39]. - **US Soybean Situation**: The sowing rate and excellent - good rate of US soybeans are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has slightly declined. The export sales performance of US soybeans is poor [48][53][65]. - **Import and Price**: The CNF premium of soybeans, the import price of Canadian rapeseed, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real are shown. The monthly import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is also provided [72][75][77]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is at different levels. The inventory of soybeans is at a high level, soybean meal has a slight reduction in inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [80]. - **Trading Volume and Consumption**: The trading volume and consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The spot trading volume of soybean meal has increased, but the holiday pick - up volume has declined [103]. - **Price Difference and Feed Production**: The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the monthly feed production are shown [115][117]. - **Breeding Situation**: The breeding profits and related data of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, including the decline in pig prices and the high weight of pigs [119][123][127]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating weakly" for the corn market. Without significant policy and weather changes, the 01 contract is expected to follow the pricing of the production area and show an oscillating bottoming trend [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is bearish due to new grain concentration, concerns about new grain quality in North China, and reduced import grain supply [4]. - Demand is short - term bullish and medium - term bearish. Feed production increased in August 2025, but high inventory and poor downstream demand limit the increase in demand [4]. - Inventory is bullish as port, feed enterprise, and deep - processing corn inventories are at low levels [4]. - Basis/spread is neutral with the basis at a neutral level [4]. - Profit is bearish for livestock and poultry breeding but improving for deep - processing starch and alcohol [4]. - Valuation is neutral, being slightly high from the planting cost perspective and low from the absolute futures price perspective [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply factors: New grain is concentrated for listing, North Port resumes loading, and import grain supply is reduced. The 25/26 planting cost decreases, and the estimated port - collection price is 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton [4]. - Demand factors: In August 2025, the national industrial feed output was 2936 tons, up 3.7% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the finished product inventory is high [4]. - Investment view: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom out, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress, traders' purchasing mentality, and policy changes [4]. - Trading strategy: The C01 contract is expected to be oscillating weakly, and arbitrage is on hold [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple price trend charts, including the basis trend of the main corn contract, national average price, port prices, and starch prices, as well as charts of futures contract positions and spreads [6][8][11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Supply: North Port corn arrivals are shown, and in August, the import of corn and sorghum was at a low level, and the import of barley declined [20][26]. - Inventory: Port, feed enterprise, and deep - processing corn inventories are at low levels [33][40][59]. - Demand: Feed production data is provided, and deep - processing corn consumption is seasonally increasing, but downstream demand in starch and other industries is weak [42][67]. - Profit: Livestock and poultry breeding is in a loss, while deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are improving [44][67][89]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - The September report shows a slight downward adjustment of the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries in 2025/26 [108]. - Data on US corn export sales, including total and to China, are presented [115][121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations, the European Container Freight Index (EC) shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot freight rate is favorable, but political and economic factors are unfavorable. The supply of shipping capacity and demand are neutral. In the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of cargo owners". The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased and verified, with the second quarter of next year as the first substantial observation point [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Spot Freight Rate**: Bullish. This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500, and the overall quotation range in late October was 2000 - 2200 (MSK's price increase letter indicates 2500 in early November) [3] - **Political and Economic**: Bearish. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods from November 1. China announced new restrictions on rare - earth exports. The US adjusted the 232 - clause tariff on some products. Israel and Hamas reached a peace agreement, but there are still uncertainties [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The average weekly shipping capacity deployment in September was 305,000 TEU, 250,000 TEU in October, 280,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate declined rapidly, lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. The loading rate of GEMINI rebounded due to significant price cuts, while those of the other two alliances continued to decline [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and the 10 - 12 spread trading is in a long - short positive spread. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data on European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices, as well as Maersk's European line quotations [6][12] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on order volume, new - order volume, and order volume by loading capacity [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on future delivery volume, future delivery volume by quarter and season, and future delivery volume by loading capacity [24][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on ship - breaking price by loading capacity and new - shipbuilding price index and price by loading capacity [31] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on second - hand ship price index and second - hand ship price by loading capacity [37] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships**: There are data on existing shipping capacity, existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofitting ratios, average age, and average age of ship - breaking [46][49][53] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: There are data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, and the shipping capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [61][63][65][67][69] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers**: There are data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average age and duration of installation, and average speed [71][72][75] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on idle shipping capacity, idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle shipping capacity, and shipping capacity for desulfurization tower retrofitting [79][80]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The shipping industry is facing a transition between the off - season and peak season, with airlines' price increases likely to be difficult to implement. The market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and rising bargaining power of shippers" before the new long - term cooperation period in 2026. The 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended. [7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Rate Index - **Current Values**: Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1160, China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1015, SCFI - US West is 1468, SCFIS - US West is 876, SCFI - US East is 2452, SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1068. - **Percentage Changes**: SCFI increased by 4.12%, CCFI decreased by 6.68%, SCFI - US West increased by 0.55%, SCFIS - US West decreased by 4.89%, SCFI - US East increased by 2.81%, SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 9.99%. [5] Contract Data - **Current Values**: EC2506 is 1248.6, EC2608 is 1393.6, EC2510 is 1121.1, EC2512 is 1571.0, EC5602 is 1338.0, EC2604 is 1069.0. - **Percentage Changes**: EC2506 decreased by 2.26%, EC2608 decreased by 3.13%, EC2510 increased by 0.11%, EC2512 decreased by 6.93%, EC5602 decreased by 4.84%, EC2604 decreased by 4.55%. [5] Position Data - **Current Values**: EC2606 position is 1516, EC2608 position is 1041, EC2410 position is 18352, EC2412 position is 28056, EC2602 position is 9768, EC2604 position is 12963. - **Change Values**: EC2606 increased by 146, EC2608 increased by 133, EC2410 decreased by 2678, EC2412 increased by 3834, EC2602 increased by 1025, EC2604 increased by 1876. [5] Month - Spread Data - **Current Values**: The 10 - 12 month - spread is - 449.9, the 12 - 2 month - spread is 233.0, the 12 - 4 month - spread is 502.0. - **Change Values**: The 10 - 12 month - spread increased by 118.2, the 12 - 2 month - spread decreased by 49.0, the 12 - 4 month - spread decreased by 66.1. [5] 2. Spot Price - In October, the prices of GEMINI dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC reported 1600 in early October. The overall mainstream quotation range for the second half of October is 2000 - 2200. [7] 3. Logic - In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargoes, and freight rates once dropped to $1300/FEU. Maersk first announced a price increase of $400/FEU for the second half of October, but in October, both supply and demand decreased, and it is likely to return to the off - season market. The negotiation on the Gaza issue has created a theoretical possibility for the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, but the shipping industry still faces "three hurdles". [8] 4. Strategy - A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for asphalt in October is "oscillating weakly" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices declined due to multiple factors, causing asphalt prices to follow suit. In October, asphalt supply increased, but demand decreased in the north due to the rainy season, resulting in a lackluster peak season. The overall trend of asphalt will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Neutral)**: Two information companies estimated October's local refinery asphalt production at 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9% respectively. Although some refineries plan to maintain full - load production or resume production, others' maintenance or intermittent production limits the increase [3]. - **Demand (Negative)**: Affected by factors such as logistics restrictions during the National Day holiday and early - October rainfall, domestic asphalt demand is likely to decline. However, there are still construction rush expectations in some areas [3]. - **Inventory (Neutral)**: Domestic asphalt inventory shows a trend of "slightly increasing factory inventory and slightly decreasing social inventory". Low - inventory regions have stronger price support, while high - inventory regions are weaker [3]. - **Cost (Neutral)**: This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, first rebounding and then falling. The initial rebound was due to OPEC +'s production increase plan being lower than expected and geopolitical risks, while the subsequent decline was due to the easing of the Middle East situation, concerns about demand, and weak global economic recovery [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly. The overall trend will continue to follow crude oil [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: oscillating weakly; Arbitrage: none [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Shandong) from 2021 to 2025 [5][6][9]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Basis**: It presents the basis data of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Supply - **Production Forecast**: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025 [22][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2019 to 2025 [31][34][36]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [38]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It presents the price, premium, and port inventory data of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [44][45][46]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2019 to 2025 [50][52][53]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [55][56]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volume of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [67][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory state [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures price continues to decline. Supply is affected by increased maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in production. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. Inventory has increased, and the overall market situation is complex, with the short - term market expected to oscillate [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance increased, and production decreased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production decreased by 0.2 million tons to 83 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. In some regions, such as the Northwest and North China, the load decreased [3] - **Demand**: It is in the seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased slightly, and the overall production of lithium hydroxide was basically flat after offsetting increases and decreases [3] - **Inventory**: The shipment pressure has increased recently, and caustic soda inventory has accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more has increased [3] - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There are no arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies at present. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: The futures price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined significantly after the holiday. The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The profit of chlor - alkali is at a high level, and the factory's operating load is maintained at a high level. With the increase in new maintenance this week, production has decreased. Post - holiday demand has improved slightly, and the supply pressure of caustic soda is expected to ease [9] - **Spot**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase. The subsidy for liquid chlorine is low, and the price has dropped to - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of chlor - alkali is good [9] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price has stabilized [34] - **Upstream Production**: Production has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased slightly [37] - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China has increased, and production has decreased [40] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has decreased [41] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina has declined, and the non - aluminum price is weak [44] - **Alumina**: The start - up rate of alumina has recovered, and inventory has accumulated. The start - up rate of alumina in Henan has increased significantly due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices [56][57] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: The start - up of non - aluminum industries is stable but lower than the same period last year. It has entered the seasonal off - peak, and the start - up rate has begun to decline [66][67] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate has rebounded [74] - **Maintenance Plan**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans in September and October, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - events have introduced new disturbances, and rubber has continued its weak performance. Although there is cost support due to rainfall in production areas and a decline in mid - stream inventory, and the downstream operating rate may rebound after the holiday, external macro - disturbances are negative, so it may maintain a weak performance in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as "neutral". In domestic production areas, raw material release in Yunnan was slow due to rain during the festival, and prices were weak. In Hainan, raw material supply was tight due to rain. In Thailand, heavy rainfall may affect raw material supply, and in Vietnam, although the weather improved, production had not fully recovered, and inventory was low [3] - **Demand**: It is rated as "neutral". As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points). It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will rebound next week [3] - **Inventory**: It is rated as "relatively high". As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.1 tons, and that of light - colored rubber was 42.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2% [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is rated as "neutral". After the festival, the RU - mixed spread rebounded and expanded, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts also increased slightly [3] - **Profit**: It is rated as "relatively high". The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex was in a loss state but stable, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex was still in a loss state but recovered significantly [3] - **Valuation**: It is rated as "bearish". The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is rated as "neutral". The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the previous optimistic sentiment has subsided. The domestic commodity market currently lacks drivers, and market sentiment is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed contract [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: After the festival, natural rubber stopped falling and rebounded. As of October 10, the RU main contract closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 285 yuan/ton (+1.90%), and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 12,350 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 250 yuan/ton (+2.07%) [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded [9] - **Disk Position**: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased [17][24] - **Disk Spread**: The RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [33] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [41] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of cup rubber rebounded [50] - **Main - Producing Country Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63] - **Main - Producing Country Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73] - **China's Imports**: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+19.47%). In August, China imported 520,800 tons of natural rubber, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [86][93] - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's social inventory decreased significantly. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%) [103][110] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: After the festival, the tire capacity utilization rate may rebound. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points) [111][119] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In August, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [125][136] - **Tire Exports**: From January to August, China exported 6.19 million tons of rubber tires (+5.1%). In August, the export volume was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [137] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and the delivery profit of full - latex were in a loss state [147]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for styrene is "oscillation", with an expected bearish trend as the cost weakens [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is weak, and pure benzene and styrene follow the cost down. The supply of styrene increases after the maintenance period ends, while the demand is poor both domestically and overseas. The inventory situation is mixed, and the profit and basis are bearish. The overall market for pure benzene and styrene is under pressure [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. After the maintenance period, styrene supply increases. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $270/ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene rebounds to $150. Asian producers' economy remains negative. The market has poor expectations for the downstream [4]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Pure benzene has a slight de - stocking. The supply side increases significantly after the maintenance ends, and Yulong Petrochemical's device is about to be put into production. Overseas demand is still declining due to the low operating rate of derivatives [4]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples is 201,900 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons from the previous period, a +2.23% increase. The commercial inventory is 116,400 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous period, an +8.99% increase [4]. - **Basis**: Bearish. The styrene basis is stable at around 30 - 40. There is an expected inventory build - up for pure benzene and styrene, and the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device will put obvious pressure on the market [4]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $270/ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene drops to $150 [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly, and overseas pure benzene continues to flow in. Styrene device supply is sufficient [4]. - **Macro Policy**: Bearish. On October 9 local time, a US federal judge approved a partial restraining order to temporarily prevent the Trump administration from deploying the National Guard in Illinois [4]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Styrene cost weakens, expected to be mainly bearish [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: Supply increases, and prices continue to decline [6]. - **Styrene**: The profit of styrene integrated plants declines. After the festival, the port inventory of styrene rises slightly [15][26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by weak overseas demand, the price of pure benzene runs weakly [38]. 3.3 Part Three: Overview of Polymer Demand - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: The demand for domestic styrene downstream polymers is okay, with stable capacity utilization and production profit [52]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: Inventory accumulates, and profit declines [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: The load decreases, and inventory slightly decreases [74]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: The load increases, and the profit slightly rebounds [84]. - **Pure Benzene - Phenol**: The port inventory declines [93]. - **Pure Benzene - Adipic Acid**: Production increases, but profit is difficult to expand [103]. - **Pure Benzene - Caprolactam**: The price drops [114]. - **Appliance**: The year - on - year export demand for household appliances declines [123].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is bearish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. Trump's tariff threat on China will cause short - term oil prices to continue to show a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global or regional crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,553 million barrels per day, an increase of 234 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3]. - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: Different institutions have different views on demand. EIA, OPEC, and IEA have either increased or maintained their forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025, with an overall increase compared to 2024 [3]. - **Inventory (Short Term)**: In the week ending October 3, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.715 million barrels, while the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories also changed [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term)**: OPEC+ eight countries agreed to increase the daily crude oil production by 137,000 barrels in November, and the IEA pointed out that the crude oil market may shift from a tight balance to a slight surplus in the future [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short Term)**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect, and a Russian refinery was attacked, which is expected to take about a month to resume operations [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short Term)**: Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US, and the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates at the October meeting [3]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. Short - term oil prices will be weak and volatile [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading should be on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Main Weekly Data Change Review - **Prices**: SC crude oil, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and other major oil product prices all declined this week, with declines ranging from 2.62% to 4.04% [5]. - **Inventory**: US + European + Singapore oil product inventories, Chinese oil product inventories, and other data have changed to varying degrees. For example, US gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 4.66% [5]. - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Chinese and US refineries have increased, while the operating rate of Japanese refineries has decreased [5]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production decreased by 0.76% [5]. 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: This week, oil prices showed a weak decline. Factors such as the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and Trump's tariff threat have led to a bearish sentiment in the market [9]. - **Month - spread & Internal - external Spread**: The month - spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The far - month is moving towards a contango structure [22]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [30][40]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - **OPEC**: In August 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased compared to July [59]. - **Non - OPEC**: The production of non - OPEC countries also increased [61]. - **US**: As of the week ending October 3, US domestic crude oil production increased to 13.629 million barrels per day [84]. - **Inventory** - **US**: US commercial inventory increased, and Cushing inventory decreased [85]. - **Northwest Europe and Singapore**: Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [94]. - **China**: Some Chinese oil product inventories and port inventories have changed [104]. - **Demand** - **US**: Gasoline implicit demand rebounded, and refinery operating rate increased slightly [111]. - **China**: The refinery capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [121]. - **China's Refinery Profit**: The gross profit of major refineries and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined [129]. - **Macro - finance**: The Fed cut interest rates, and the US dollar index rebounded [142]. - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of WTI crude oil speculative trading decreased [151].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Stock Index Option Data Daily Report [2] - Date: October 13, 2025 [3] - Author: Li Zeju from the Financial Derivatives Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] - Data sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Group 2: Market Performance Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.94% to 3,897.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.7%, the ChiNext Index declined 4.55% (the second - highest decline this year), the Northbound 50 dropped 1.24%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 5.61%, the Wind All - A dropped 1.64%, the Wind A500 fell 2.08%, and the CSI A500 fell 2.29% [4] - A - share trading volume was 2.53 trillion yuan, compared with 2.67 trillion yuan the previous day [4] Specific Index Data | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume (billion yuan) | Turnover (billion) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 2,974.8535 | - 1.51 | 67.28 | 4,616.8341 | | CSI 300 | - | - 1.97 | 7927.43 | 319.02 | | CSI 1000 | - | - 1.49 | 4857.04 | 290.43 | [3] Group 3: CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Option Volume | Index | Call Option Volume (million) | Put Option Volume (million) | Total Volume (million) | Call Option Open Interest (million) | Put Option Open Interest (million) | Total Open Interest (million) | Volume PCR | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 3.67 | 5.67 | 9.34 | 2.00 | 7.65 | 9.65 | 1.54 | 3.825 | | CSI 300 | 11.29 | 8.11 | 19.40 | 10.20 | 9.05 | 19.25 | 0.72 | 0.89 | | CSI 1000 | 15.71 | 15.22 | 30.94 | 14.65 | 14.43 | 29.08 | 0.97 | 0.98 | [3] Group 4: Volatility Analysis Historical Volatility - The report provides historical volatility and historical volatility cones for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day historical volatilities, as well as 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current values [3][4] Volatility Smile Curve - The report shows the next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [3][4]