Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Center [5] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0013700 [5] - Qualification Number: F3023916 [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Inner and Outer Market Gold and Silver Price Tracking (15:00 prices) - On November 28, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $4,186.79 per ounce, London Silver Spot at $53.99 per ounce, COMEX Gold at $4,221.30 per ounce, COMEX Silver at $54.65 per ounce, AU2512 at 949.66 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 12,724 yuan per kilogram, AU (T+D) at 948.04 yuan per gram, and AG (T+D) at 12,671 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Compared to November 27, 2025, the price increases were 0.7%, 1.1%, 0.8%, 1.3%, 0.7%, 1.7%, 0.7%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. Spread/Ratio Price Tracking (15:00 prices) - On November 28, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was -1.62 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was -53 yuan per kilogram, the gold inner - outer (TD - London) spread was -4.84 yuan per gram, the silver inner - outer (TD - London) spread was -1,075 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 74.64, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 77.24, AU2602 - 2512 was 4.26 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 3 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Compared to November 27, 2025, the price increases were 1.2%, 307.7%, 17.3%, -1.9%, -1.0%, -0.5%, 16.4%, and -78.6% respectively [5]. Group 3: Position and Inventory Data Position Data - On November 28, 2025, the Gold ETF - SPDR was 1,045.43 tons, the Silver ETF - SLV was 15,610.5435 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX Gold was 278,405 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 74,489 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 203,916 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX Silver was 67,041 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 23,860 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 43,181 contracts [5]. - Compared to November 26, 2025, the changes were 0.00%, 0.18%, -7.44%, 8.20%, -12.09%, -0.93%, 11.23%, and -6.57% respectively [5]. Inventory Data - On November 28, 2025, the SHFE Gold inventory was 90,873 kilograms, the SHFE Silver inventory was 558,882 kilograms, the COMEX Gold inventory was 36,357,103 troy ounces, and the COMEX Silver inventory was 456,772,056 troy ounces [5]. - Compared to November 26 - 27, 2025, the changes were 0.50%, 2.18%, -0.57%, and -0.29% respectively [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates/Foreign Exchange/Restock Market - On November 28, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 7.08, the US dollar index was 99.44, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, the VIX was 16.35, the S&P 500 was 6,849.09, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.48 [5]. - Compared to November 26 - 27, 2025, the changes were 0.01%, -0.15%, 0.58%, 0.50%, -4.89%, 0.54%, and -0.12% respectively [5]. Group 5: Market Review - On November 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.76% to 953.92 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.21% to 12,727 yuan per kilogram. On the night of the previous Friday, gold and silver prices rose. Shanghai silver rose 5.17% to 13,191 yuan per kilogram, hitting a record high; Shanghai gold rose 0.97% to 959.82 yuan per gram [3]. Group 6: Influencing Factors Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - Due to increased supply concerns, the squeeze - out risk in the silver market has been fermenting. Coupled with the overseas Thanksgiving holiday, poor market liquidity, and a glitch in the QKE trading system, market speculative sentiment was further amplified, pushing silver prices up significantly. London spot silver rose over 5% last Friday, breaking through the $56 per ounce mark, COMEX silver rose over 6% and broke through the $57 per ounce mark, and Shanghai silver futures rose over 8% and broke through the 13,000 yuan per kilogram mark, with all three markets hitting new record highs [6]. - Gold was also supported by the sentiment from the silver squeeze - out and the high probability of a Fed rate cut in December, showing a strong performance. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong under the background of the silver squeeze - out. However, in December, attention should be paid to the December silver delivery situation on the SHFE and the changes in inventory. If the supply shortage eases or the December delivery volume in New York is not as large as the market rumor, silver prices may face significant fluctuations [6]. - In the short - term strategy, existing long positions can be held, while for those not yet in the market, gold can be bought on dips, and participation in silver should be cautious [6]. Group 7: Medium - to - Long - Term View - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. Global central bank gold purchases continue. Therefore, the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly allocate by buying on dips [6].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is the "Stock Index Option Data Daily Report" released by the Research Institute of Guomao Futures on November 28, 2025 [2][3] - The data sources are Wind and Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Group 2: Market Review Index Performance - The closing price of SSE 50 is 2972.2651, with a turnover of 39.29 billion yuan, a trading volume of 10.5106 billion, and a daily increase of 0.02% [3] - The closing price of CSI 300 is 4515.4027, with a turnover of 417.79 billion yuan, a trading volume of 21.128 billion, and a daily decrease of 0.05% [3] - The closing price of CSI 1000 is 7257.454, with a turnover of 365.626 billion yuan, a trading volume of 15.031 billion, and a daily increase of 0.12% [3] Overall Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 3875.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.44%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.62%, the STAR 50 fell 0.33%, the Wind All A fell 0.01%, the Wind A500 fell 0.12%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.12% [4] - A-share trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, down from 1.8 trillion yuan the previous day [4] Group 3: CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Option Trading Volume - For SSE 50, the trading volume of call options is 2.17 million contracts, put options is 1.30 million contracts, and the trading volume PCR is 0.67 [3] - For CSI 300, the trading volume of call options is 9.05 million contracts, put options is 5.40 million contracts, and the trading volume PCR is 0.68 [3] - For CSI 1000, the trading volume of call options is 9.69 million contracts, put options is 8.71 million contracts, and the trading volume PCR is 0.90 [3] Option Open Interest - For SSE 50, the open interest of call options is 6.05 million contracts, put options is 3.55 million contracts, and the open - interest PCR is 0.70 [3] - For CSI 300, the open interest of call options is 16.81 million contracts, put options is 9.86 million contracts, and the open - interest PCR is 0.70 [3] - For CSI 1000, the open interest of call options is 29.21 million contracts, put options is 14.18 million contracts, and the open - interest PCR is 0.94 [3] Group 4: Volatility Analysis SSE 50 Volatility - Analyzed through historical volatility and historical volatility cone, and presented the volatility smile curve and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] CSI 300 Volatility - Analyzed through historical volatility and historical volatility cone, and presented the volatility smile curve and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] CSI 1000 Volatility - Analyzed through historical volatility and historical volatility cone, and presented the volatility smile curve and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]

Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report focusing on shipping-related indices, futures contracts, and market analysis [4]. Key Data Points Freight Rate Index - **SCFI Composite Index**: Present value is 1394, previous value was 1451, with a decline of -3.98% [4]. - **CCFI Index**: Present value is 1123, previous value was 1094, with an increase of 2.63% [4]. - **SCFI - US West**: Present value is 1645, previous value was 1823, with a decline of -9.76% [4]. - **SCFIS - US West**: Present value is 1107, previous value was 1238, with a decline of -10.58% [4]. - **SCFI - US East**: Present value is 2384, previous value was 2600, with a decline of -8.31% [4]. - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: Present value is 1367, previous value was 1417, with a decline of -3.53% [4]. - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: Present value is 1357, previous value was 1504, with a decline of -9.77% [4]. - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: Present value is 2055, previous value was 2029, with an increase of 1.28% [4]. Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For example, EC2506 present value is 1190.1, previous value was 1252.0, with a decline of -4.94% [4]. - **Contract Holdings**: EC2606 present holding is 2186, previous holding was 1986, an increase of 200 [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For 12 - 02, present value is 225.2, previous value was 235.0, a decline of -9.8 [4]. Market Analysis EC Market - **Market Condition**: The market is oscillating weakly. Rumors suggest Maersk's vessels will partially resume sailing through the Suez Canal in early December 2025, and CMA CGM plans full navigation in December [5]. - **Spot Prices**: In early December, MSK quoted 2500, HPL 2350, OOCL 2300, CMA 3550, EMC 3100, ONE 2450, and MSC 2450 [5]. - **Logic**: The future market will be oscillating weakly. Key factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of January price increase letters, and seasonal changes in cargo volume [5]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Affected by the news that China banned a Brazilian soybean ship from entering the country and suspended some Brazilian exporters from exporting soybeans, the near - month contract of soybean meal rose significantly today, and the monthly spread tends to be in a positive spread. The news is expected to have more impact on sentiment, with limited actual impact. The domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America, and there is no obvious drought problem in the short - term weather [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Spread Data - On November 27, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 75, down 20; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Zhangjiagang was 35, - 15, - 25 respectively, down 20, 20, 40 respectively; the basis of soybean meal spot in Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng was - 55, down 40; the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 37, down 136; M1 - M5 was 217, up 28; M1 - RM1 and RM1 - 5 data were also provided; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 586 [6][7]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0434, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and import soybean gross profit data were provided. The inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal, and the number of days of feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory were also presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels [7]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 15, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 69.0%, and as of November 13, the planting rate of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 15%. It is necessary to pay attention to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next few weeks. The domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The progress of ship - buying for the December - January shipment is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [7][8]. - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short - term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and the far - month trading volume of the soybean meal downstream has increased recently, with good提货 performance [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, and gasoline blending has weakened. The PX market has remained strong due to multiple factors. The increase in PX prices is mainly supported by the value of gasoline blending and the stabilization and recovery of the by - product benzene price. The PX - naphtha spread has further widened to $256, while the PX - mixed xylene spread is still under pressure, slightly above $100, limiting the room for increasing efficiency through PX production. Domestic restructuring unit maintenance rumors are positive for PX, and some Korean producers are even considering taking offline toluene - route PX units in December. Domestic PTA manufacturers benefit from India's cancellation of PTA import BIS certification restrictions, improving export prospects and boosting PX procurement sentiment. The strong PX price is significantly beneficial for the PTA market. Currently, the PTA supply side has tightened slightly, while the polyester industry's operating rate has remained stable, with the overall load maintained above 90%. Thanks to the positive adjustment of trade policies in some overseas countries, the export inquiry for polyester products has increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export outlook is optimistic. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow suit [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Price Changes - PTA spot price dropped from 4635 to 4610, a decrease of 25; MEG domestic price dropped from 3904 to 3900, a decrease of 4; PTA closing price dropped from 4684 to 4632, a decrease of 52; MEG closing price dropped from 3896 to 3873, a decrease of 23; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price dropped from 6380 to 6365, a decrease of 15; short - fiber basis increased from 137 to 140, an increase of 3; 12 - 1 spread decreased from 116 to 80, a decrease of 36; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; the price of 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber remained stable at 5400; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 980 to 965, a decrease of 15; East China water bottle chip price dropped from 5720 to 5707, a decrease of 13; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price dropped from 5720 to 5707, a decrease of 13; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price dropped from 5820 to 5807, a decrease of 13; outer - market water bottle chip price dropped from 760 to 755, a decrease of 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 449 to 459, an increase of 10; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained stable at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3920 to 3935, an increase of 15; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained stable at 16300; cotton 328 price increased from 14475 to 14480, an increase of 5; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1599 to 1607, an increase of 8; the price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained stable at 7080; the cash flow of hollow short fiber 6 - 15D increased from 609 to 632, an increase of 23; the price of primary low - melting - point short fiber remained stable at 7580 [2]. Market Conditions - Short fiber: The main futures contract of polyester staple fiber dropped 76 to 6162. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were stable, while those of traders declined weakly. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and the production and sales of factories were limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6120 - 6460 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included, self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6240 - 6580 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included, delivered; in the Fujian market, it was 6170 - 6350 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included, delivered. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5680 - 5760 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. Most offers on the supply side were lowered, downstream end - users made rigid purchases, the market trading atmosphere was light, and the market negotiation center declined [2]. Operating Rates and Production - Sales Ratios - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points; the polyester staple fiber production - sales ratio increased from 44.00% to 46.00%, an increase of 2 percentage points; the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained stable at 66.00%; the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained stable at 51.10% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA market: The intraday crude oil market showed weak oscillations. The gasoline cracking spread in the US narrowed, and the price of MX in the US declined. The positive impact of the gasoline blending logic on the PTA market ended, leading to a drop in the PTA market. However, the PX market remained firm under the influence of multiple factors. The increase in PX price was mainly driven by the support of gasoline blending value and the stabilization and recovery of the by - product benzene price. The export prospects of PTA improved due to India's cancellation of the BIS certification restriction on PTA imports, boosting the PX procurement sentiment. Currently, the PTA supply has slightly tightened, while the polyester industry's operating rate has remained stable, and the overall load has remained above 90%. The export prospects of domestic polyester are still optimistic [2]. - MEG market: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price could not support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. The commissioning of new plants continued to put pressure on the ethylene glycol price, and the spot shortage caused by low inventory was mainly reflected in the basis. The decline in coal prices reduced the price support for ethylene glycol. The subsequent export demand for textile and clothing and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil**: The price of INE crude oil rose from 445.0 yuan/barrel on November 26, 2025, to 447.6 yuan/barrel on November 27, 2025, an increase of 2.6 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1450.1 yuan/ton to 1379.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.89 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4484 to 1.4240, a decrease of 0.0244 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price decreased from 829 to 826, a decrease of 3. The PX - naphtha spread remained unchanged at 268 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA main futures price decreased from 4684 yuan/ton to 4632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price decreased from 4635 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 204.2 yuan/ton to 196.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.9 yuan/ton. The on - disk processing fee decreased from 253.2 yuan/ton to 218.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from (31) to (36), a decrease of 5.0. The number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 121,036 to 123,197, an increase of 2,161 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price decreased from 3896 yuan/ton to 3873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.0 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (140.68) to (140.87), a decrease of 0.2. The MEG domestic price decreased from 3904 to 3900, a decrease of 4.0. The main basis decreased from 33 to 5, a decrease of 28.0 [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 86.48% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Increased from 73.44% to 74.77%, an increase of 1.33% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Increased from 61.48% to 63.48%, an increase of 2.00% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 89.19% [2]. 3.3 Polyester Product Situation - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6490, and the POY cash flow increased from (31) to (8), an increase of 23.0. The price of FDY150D/96F decreased from 6760 to 6755, a decrease of 5.0, and the FDY cash flow increased from (261) to (243), an increase of 18.0. The price of DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7855, and the DTY cash flow increased from 134 to 157, an increase of 23.0. The filament production and sales rate decreased from 54% to 45%, a decrease of 9% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6380 to 6365, a decrease of 15. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 209 to 217, an increase of 8.0. The staple fiber production and sales rate decreased from 53% to 41%, a decrease of 12% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips remained unchanged at 5550, and the chip cash flow increased from (71) to (48), an increase of 23.0. The chip production and sales rate decreased from 72% to 56%, a decrease of 16% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The device was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inter - bank market liquidity remains loose, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions staying around 1.32%. The November LPR quotes remain unchanged [4]. - The stock index rose and then fell yesterday, showing an overall volatile performance. It is expected that market differences will be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The bottom - fishing effect of Central Huijin provides a certain buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to lay out for the further rise of the stock index next year [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.31%, down 0.04bp; DR007 at 1.45%, down 2.79bp; GC001 at 1.38%, down 6.50bp; GC007 at 1.52%, down 1.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.58%, up 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.35%, down 0.60bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57%, up 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.84%, down 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.00%, down 1.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment for the day was 56.4 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4515, down 0.05%; the SSE 50 at 2972, up 0.02%; the CSI 500 at 6951.3, down 0.2%; the CSI 1000 at 7257.5, up 0.12%. The trading volume of the two stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.7098 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with papermaking, batteries, consumer electronics, photovoltaic equipment, and chemical raw materials sectors leading the gains, while cultural media, cement building materials, Internet services, pharmaceutical commerce, and gaming sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume was 100,893, up 3.7%; IF open interest was 264,196, up 1.9%; IH volume was 42,497, up 19.7%; IH open interest was 92,285, up 7.0%; IC volume was 112,976, up 5.6%; IC open interest was 254,570, up 2.2%; IM volume was 183,443, up 3.3%; IM open interest was 364,043, up 0.8% [5]. 3.3 Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 8.38%, 6.21%, 3.95%, and 3.99% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.51%, 3.70%, 1.81%, and 1.63% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 13.15%, 11.90%, 10.34%, and 11.10% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 17.93%, 15.48%, 13.47%, and 13.25% respectively [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December is still high, which supports the precious metal prices. However, the easing of geopolitical tensions and the neutral economic data in the US limit the upward movement of precious metal prices. The domestic silver inventory is at a near - decade low, causing the silver price to rise against the gold price. In the short - term, gold is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and silver may fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to inventory changes. In the long - term, due to factors such as the Fed's rate - cut cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and the continuation of central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On November 27, 2025, London gold spot was at $4157.26/ounce, London silver spot at $53.42/ounce, COMEX gold at $4189.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $53.97/ounce. Compared with November 26, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.2%, London silver spot by 2.9%, COMEX gold by 0.1%, and COMEX silver by 3.2%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures also showed certain increases, with the Shanghai gold futures main contract rising 0.14% to 947.16 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver futures main contract rising 3.35% to 12525 yuan/kilogram [3][5] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 1.6 yuan/gram on November 27, with a 15.9% increase compared to the previous day. The silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 13 yuan/kilogram, a - 35.0% change. The gold and silver price ratios and spreads between domestic and foreign markets also had different degrees of changes [5] 2. Position Data - As of November 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1045.43 tons, with a 0.44% increase compared to November 25. The silver ETF - SLV was 15582.3342 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had corresponding changes, with the non - commercial net long position of COMEX gold decreasing by 12.09% [5] 3. Inventory Data - On November 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 90423.00 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day, and the SHFE silver inventory was 546976.00 kilograms, a 2.97% increase. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight changes [5] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On November 27, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.08, a - 0.02% change. The US dollar index was 99.59, a - 0.22% change. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had different degrees of changes [5] 5. Market Review - On November 27, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed up 0.14% to 947.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract closed up 3.35% to 12525 yuan/kilogram [5] 6. Influencing Factors Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - Although the US weekly initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since mid - April, the US economic beige book showed that the Trump administration shutdown had a negative impact on consumer purchases. The market's high expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December supports precious metal prices, but geopolitical tensions easing and neutral economic data limit the upward movement. The low domestic silver inventory has led to a rise in silver prices. In the short - term, gold may fluctuate in a high - level range, and silver may fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to inventory changes [6] 7. Medium - and Long - Term Viewpoints - In the medium - and long - term, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk of the US dollar's credit. The continuation of central bank gold purchases will likely drive up the long - term center of gold prices. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]

| | | | 1 1 1 发布日期:202 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业分符号:上02017 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 超势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | 肢指 | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | 宏观金融。必 | | | 略角度看,近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国 债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 怪啊。 | | | | | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场情绪向好,叠加产业面存在支 | | | | | 撑,铜价偏强运行。 | | | | 有为说 | 近期产业面驱动有限，而宏观情绪向好,铝价回升。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 格继续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Prices are supported at the 3000 low but the upside is limited due to weak demand. Steel production is likely to decline gradually as the industry awaits the implementation of the production cut logic [2]. - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. With steel prices under pressure, demand for these alloys is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus will continue to weigh on prices [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the current decline may be nearing its end from a valuation perspective. However, the market may need to wait for a while from a driving force perspective, and the next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - The fundamentals of iron ore remain weak with clear upward pressure. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to reduced steel production, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605 and HC2605 were 3105.00 yuan/ton and 3281.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.38% and 0.33%. The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601 and HC2601 were 3093.00 yuan/ton and 3293.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.13% and 0.27% [1]. - The price is in a narrow - range oscillation. There is an impulse to rebound, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. The industry contradiction is not prominent, and the price is likely to remain within the range. The production cut logic needs time to be realized [2]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with an interval oscillation mindset; consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. The macro - policy has expected benefits but is unconfirmed. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices will be under pressure [3][5]. - Investment strategy: Investment clients can short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - writing options to protect their spot exposure [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts J2605 and JM2605 were 1751.00 yuan/ton and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.43% and 0.21%. The closing prices of near - month contracts J2601 and JM2601 were 1607.00 yuan/ton and 1071.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spot market sentiment is weakening, with coke having a price cut expectation and most coking coal spot auctions falling. From a valuation perspective, the decline is approaching the end, but the market may need to wait for a while. The next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with a short - term mindset for now, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and liquidate hedging short positions [8]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipment is not greatly affected. With the decline of molten iron and steel production, the inventory will continue to accumulate. Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure [7]. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [8].