Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production despite the end of some planned maintenance and capacity recovery, driven by high gasoline profit margins and low pure benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. The downstream weaving industry is performing well and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price, and new device startups are pressuring the price. The coal price increase does not provide strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 447.4 yuan/barrel on November 21, 2025, to 447.9 yuan/barrel on November 24, 2025, with a change of 0.5 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC spread increased from 1414.7 yuan/ton to 1425.1 yuan/ton, with a change of 10.37 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.4351 to 1.4378, with a change of 0.0027 [2]. - CFR China PX price increased from 824 to 826, with a change of 2; PX - naphtha spread increased from 262 to 264, with a change of 2 [2]. - PTA main contract futures price increased from 4666 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton, with a change of 14 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4615 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 191 yuan/ton to 212 yuan/ton, with a change of 21 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee increased from 257 yuan/ton to 262 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA main contract basis increased from - 63 to - 49, with a change of 14; PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 117,192 to 117,828, with a change of 636 [2]. - MEG main contract futures price increased from 3808 yuan/ton to 3884 yuan/ton, with a change of 76 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from - 151.12 yuan/ton to - 151.31 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price increased from 3852 yuan/ton to 3890 yuan/ton, with a change of 38 yuan/ton; MEG main contract basis decreased from 35 to 33, with a change of - 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 87.39% [2]. - PTA start - up rate remained at 72.11% [2]. - MEG start - up rate increased from 60.14% to 60.33%, with a change of 0.19% [2]. - Polyester load remained at 89.19% [2]. Polyester Product Data - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6580 yuan/ton to 6545 yuan/ton, with a change of - 35 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 94 to 33, with a change of - 61 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6825 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from - 161 to - 187, with a change of - 26 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained at 7865 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 179 to 153, with a change of - 26 [2]. - Long - filament sales rate increased from 39% to 43%, with a change of 4% [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6340 yuan/ton to 6350 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 204 to 188, with a change of - 16 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber sales rate increased from 31% to 65%, with a change of 34% [2]. - Semi - bright chip price increased from 5540 yuan/ton to 5545 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton; chip cash flow decreased from - 46 to - 67, with a change of - 21 [2]. - Chip sales rate decreased from 75% to 60%, with a change of - 15% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon, having stopped for maintenance around November 17 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the PX market has shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited. The main drivers are the soaring gasoline profit margins, which prompt refineries to reduce raw material input in aromatic units and increase gasoline production, and the drop of benzene prices to a near - three - year low, leading refineries to lower the load of reforming and STDP units to suppress benzene output and thus limit PX supply [2]. - The PTA supply side has slightly shrunk, while polyester operation remains stable with a load above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow these trends [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4615 to 4630, a change of 15; MEG inner - market price rose from 3852 to 3890, a change of 38; PTA closing price went up from 4666 to 4680, a change of 14; MEG closing price increased from 3808 to 3884, a change of 76 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6340 to 6350, a change of 10; short - fiber basis decreased from 126 to 125, a change of - 1; 12 - 1 spread decreased from 50 to 68, a change of - 18; polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 940 to 950, a change of 10 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5682 to 5709, a change of 27; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5682 to 5709, a change of 27; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5782 to 5809, a change of 27; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 755 to 760, a change of 5; bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 446 to 447, a change of 1 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3960 to 3950, a change of - 10; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1678 to 1635, a change of - 43 [2]. - The price of cotton 328 increased from 14335 to 14430, a change of 95; the price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained unchanged at 7080; the cash flow of hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 644 to 618, a change of - 26; the price of primary low - melting - point short - fiber remained unchanged at 7580 [2]. 2. Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester short - fiber production plants is stable, and the price of traders is warm. Customers purchase on demand, and the plant's production and sales are average. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester short - fiber in the East China market is 6140 - 6460 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it is 6260 - 6580 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it is 6190 - 6350 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery [2]. - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5670 - 5780 yuan/ton, with the average price rising by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuate narrowly. Most supply - side offers are temporarily stable, the market trading atmosphere is average, downstream terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. 3. Load and Production - Sales Rates - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95% [3]. - The polyester short - fiber production - sales rate increased from 35.00% to 68.00%, a change of 33.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of deliverable goods, with limited room for further increase. Consider 1 - 3 reverse spreads or 1 - 5 reverse spreads [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices (yuan/ton)**: On November 24, 2025, SP2601 was 5220 (-0.15% day - on - day, -4.64% week - on - week), SP2512 was 4712 (0.17% day - on - day, -3.84% week - on - week), and SP2605 was 5278 (-0.15% day - on - day, -3.55% week - on - week) [6] - **Spot Prices (yuan/ton)**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 (-0.92% day - on - day, -2.70% week - on - week), Russian Needle was 5170 (-0.58% day - on - day, -4.26% week - on - week), and Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 (0.00% day - on - day, 0.00% week - on - week) [6] - **Outer - Disk Quotes (USD/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 680 (-2.86% month - on - month), Japanese Neko was 530 (3.92% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 590 (0.00% month - on - month) [6] - **Import Costs (yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 5559 (-2.83% month - on - month), Brazilian Goldfish was 4344 (3.87% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 4830 (0.00% month - on - month) [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In October 2025, coniferous pulp was 69.1 (0.00% month - on - month) and broadleaf pulp was 131.8 (-2.80% month - on - month) [6] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: For broadleaf pulp, the production on November 20, 2025, was 23; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 23.7 [6] - **Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.3 (3.0% week - on - week), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 20.9 [6] - **Finished - Paper Production (10,000 tons)**: Double - offset paper was 20.70, coated paper was 8.00, tissue paper was 28.52, and white cardboard was 36.20 [6] 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 24, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 458 (quantile level 0.948), and the Silver Star basis was 688 (quantile level 0.905) [6] - **Import Profit**: For coniferous pulp Silver Star, it was - 159 (quantile level 0.378); for broadleaf pulp Goldfish, it was 56 (quantile level 0.704) [6] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco's October offer for coniferous pulp Silver Star was 680 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton; the offer for broadleaf pulp Star was 540 USD/ton, unchanged [6] - **Demand**: Recently, wood - pulp paper producers have issued price - increase letters. Only the implementation of white cardboard price increases is good, and its production is stable [6] 3.5 Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 217.3 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% week - on - week increase. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the ongoing debate about the Fed's December rate cut, precious metal prices are likely to maintain high - level volatility. It is recommended to focus on the economic data released by the US. The strategy is to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. - In the long - term, as the Fed remains in the rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, the credit risk of the US dollar will increase. With the continued gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to allocate by buying on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On November 24, 2025, compared with November 21, London Gold Spot was at $4054.27/ounce (up 0.6%), London Silver Spot was at $49.88/ounce (up 1.0%), COMEX Gold was at $4050.80/ounce (up 0.6%), COMEX Silver was at $49.52/ounce (up 1.2%), AU2512 was at 927.36 yuan/gram (up 0.4%), AG2512 was at 11810 yuan/kg (up 1.0%), AU (T + D) was at 926.00 yuan/gram (up 0.4%), and AG (T + D) was at 11803 yuan/kg (up 1.0%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From November 21 to November 24, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 34.3%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 36.4%, the spread of gold TD - London decreased by 28.2%, the spread of silver TD - London increased by 0.1%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the spread of AU2602 - 2512 increased by 0.7%, and the spread of AG2602 - 2512 decreased by 87.5% [3]. Position Data - As of November 21, 2025, compared with November 20, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1040.57 tons (up 0.11%), the silver ETF - SLV was 15257.9153 tons (up 0.07%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold decreased by 5.65%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 4.47%, the non - commercial net long positions decreased by 8.28%, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver decreased by 3.42%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 5.55%, and the non - commercial net long positions decreased by 7.08% [3]. Inventory Data - On November 24, 2025, compared with November 21, the SHFE gold inventory was 90426.00 kg (unchanged), the SHFE silver inventory was 532299.00 kg (up 2.51%). From November 21 to November 20, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.47% to 36764181 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.26% to 460702562 troy ounces [3]. Other Market Data - From November 21 to November 24, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 100.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.98% to 3.51%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 11.32% to 4.06%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.07% to 7.08, the VIX decreased by 1.13% to 23.43, the S&P 500 increased by 0.98% to 6602.99, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 1.33% to 57.98 [4]. Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On November 24, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.52% to 930.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.14% to 11808 yuan/kg [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: Fed officials soothed the market, saying that further rate cuts were expected in the future, and the expectation of a December rate cut rebounded, supporting precious metal prices. However, the Russian central bank's sale of physical gold, the US' 28 - point plan, and the joint statement of the US and Ukraine may ease the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, suppressing precious metal prices. For silver, in addition to its absolute price following the gold price trend, the tight domestic spot market may limit the downside space of silver prices, and the futures term structure may be maintained after turning into a B - structure [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year-on-year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the closing price on November 24, 2025, was 5615, with a decline of 60, a basis of 245 against SR01, and a decline of 77 in the basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the closing price was 5800, with no change, an ascension and discount of 100, a basis of 330 against SR01, and a decline of 17 in the basis [4] 3.2 Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The closing price of SR01 was 5370, with an increase of 17; the closing price of SR05 was 5319, with an increase of 17; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 51, with no change [4] 3.3 Exchange Rate and International Commodity Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1236, with a decline of 0.0081; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, with an increase of 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, with a decline of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.77, with no change; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, with an increase of 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 62.51, with no change [4] 3.4 Other Data - The domestic white sugar industrial inventory was 2000 (no unit specified) [4] - The profit of Brazilian sugar imported without tariff quota was shown in the range of - 2500 to 1500 (no unit specified) [4]

01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 沪胶仓单大幅注销，橡胶整体偏强震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 天然橡胶:沪胶仓单大幅注销，橡胶整体偏强震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，本周多数时间处于降雨中，导致割胶处于停滞状态，市场出现"有价无市"局面。海南产区局部地区有 降水扰动，随着气温开始出现下降，胶水干含有所下滑，整体原料产出受到抑制，当地加工厂陆续进入冬储备货阶段，对原料延续加价采购，收购价格表 | | | | 现坚挺。（2）泰国产区：东北部地区维持旺产期产出，泰南雨量较大，影响割胶工作，胶水及杯胶价格呈现上涨趋势 。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气有 | | | | 所改善，主产区降雨减弱，割胶作业条件优化， ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Date: November 24, 2025 [5] - Research Center: Precious Metals and New Energy Research Center [5] - Analyst: Bai Suna [5] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0013700 [5] - Qualification Number: F3023916 [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Gold and Silver Prices - On November 21, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, COMEX Silver, AU2512, AG2512, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were $4030.46/oz, $49.40/oz, $4027.40/oz, $48.94/oz, 924.00 yuan/g, 11696.00 yuan/kg, 921.93 yuan/g, and 11685.00 yuan/kg respectively [5] - Compared with November 20, 2025, the price changes were -0.9%, -3.4%, -1.0%, -3.7%, -0.9%, -2.9%, -0.9%, and -2.9% respectively [5] Price Spreads and Ratios - On November 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was -2.07 yuan/g, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was -11 yuan/kg [5] - The price changes compared with November 20, 2025 were -12.3% and 83.3% respectively [5] Group 3: Position and Inventory Data Position Data - As of November 21, 2025, the holdings of Gold ETF - SPDR and Silver ETF - SLV were 1040.57 tons and 15257.9153 tons respectively [5] - The changes compared with November 20, 2025 were 0.11% and 0.07% respectively [5] Inventory Data - On November 21, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory and SHFE silver inventory were 90426.00 kg and 519271.00 kg respectively [5] - The changes compared with November 20, 2025 were 0.00% and -2.96% respectively [5] Group 4: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market - On November 21, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.09, the US Dollar Index was 100.15, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06% [5] - Compared with November 20, 2025, the changes were -0.04%, -0.07%, -1.13%, and -0.98% respectively [5] Group 5: Market Review - On November 21, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.4% to 926.94 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 3.7% to 11680 yuan/kg [5] Group 6: Influencing Factors Analysis - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed internal differences on December rate cuts. The non - release of US October non - farm payrolls and CPI data led to a sharp drop in the probability of a December rate cut, which was negative for precious metal prices. However, Fed officials' remarks on Friday night eased the liquidity tightening risk, and precious metal prices rebounded [6] - Russia's central bank's sale of physical gold reserves under Western sanctions initially pressured gold prices, but the impact on international gold prices may be limited. Most central banks globally still maintain net gold purchases, providing long - term support for gold prices [6] - If progress is made in the Russia - Ukraine peace process, it may temporarily suppress precious metal prices [6] - US economic data shows that the economy has resilience but also faces downward risks [6] - Silver prices follow gold prices, but tight domestic spot supply and falling inventory may limit the downside space [6] Group 7: Strategy Outlook - In the short term, precious metal prices may remain volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money options [6] - In the long term, the Fed is in a rate - cut cycle, and factors such as global geopolitical uncertainty, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit. The long - term trend of gold prices is likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Treat unilaterally with a low-range oscillation mindset; opportunistically participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [10] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Investment clients should short - sell on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulated options to protect spot exposures [10] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilaterally focus on short - term trading, wait and see for the medium - to long - term, and liquidate previously recommended hedging short positions [10] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [10] 2. Core Views - The steel price is oscillating in a low - level range, waiting for new drivers. The short - term macro - expectation may be in a vacuum, and the industry contradictions are not obvious. Steel output is expected to gradually decline [2][3] - The supply - demand situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is poor, and the price is under pressure. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the oversupply pattern continues [4][6] - The expectation of coke price cuts is increasing, and the futures price is pricing in 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. The current decline may be near the end, and the next round of downstream restocking is expected to start around mid - December [7][8] - The fundamental situation of iron ore is still weak, with clear upward pressure. The inventory will continue to accumulate under the pressure of molten iron, and the operation should be short - selling on rallies [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures: On November 21, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3098 yuan/ton with a decline of 5 yuan (- 0.16%); HC2605 closed at 3274 yuan/ton with a decline of 1 yuan (- 0.03%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3057 yuan/ton with an increase of 2 yuan (0.07%); HC2601 closed at 3270 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Spot: On November 21, Shanghai螺纹 was 3230 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; Tianjin螺纹 was 3190 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 yuan; Guangzhou螺纹 was 3420 yuan/ton with no change. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Market situation: The price is oscillating in a low - level range. The short - term macro - expectation is in a vacuum, and the industry contradictions are not obvious. The steel output is expected to gradually decline [2][3] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental situation: As the steel price is under pressure and the steel mill profit shrinks, the direct demand has weakened significantly. The alloy plant profit is poor, but the output is still high, and the supply - demand surplus pattern persists [4][6] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot: The domestic market sentiment has weakened, and the expectation of coke price cuts has increased. The coking coal spot auction prices mostly declined. The port - traded quasi - first - class coke was quoted at 1480 yuan (weekly - on - weekly - 50), and the coking coal price index was 1378.8 (weekly - on - weekly - 27.3) [8] - Futures: This week, the macro continued to fluctuate. The black sector fell after speculation about the environmental supervision team's entry time. Coking coal and coke led the decline. The current decline may be near the end, and the next round of downstream restocking is expected to start around mid - December [8] Iron Ore - Fundamental situation: The short - term arrival at ports has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipments are not greatly affected. Under the pressure of molten iron, the inventory will continue to accumulate. The operation should be short - selling on rallies [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for shipping derivatives shows a mixed performance. The overall trend of the EC market is downward, and the future market will show a volatile and weak pattern. The core driving factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of the January price increase letter, and seasonal changes in cargo volume. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1394, down 3.98% from the previous value of 1451; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1123, up 2.63% from 1094. For different routes, SCFI - West America is at 1645, down 9.76% from 1823; SCFI - East America is at 2384, down 8.31% from 2600; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1367, down 3.53% from 1417; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1357, down 9.77% from 1504; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2055, up 1.28% from 2029 [5]. Energy - Related Contracts - **Price and Position Changes**: For energy - related contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., prices are mostly down. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1350.0, down 2.25% from 1381.1. In terms of positions, EC2608's position increased by 100 to 1324, while EC2512's position decreased by 737 to 7323 [5]. - **Month - Spread Changes**: The 12 - 02 month - spread is currently at 217.8, up 73.1 from 144.7; the 12 - 04 month - spread is at 640.7, up 28.0 from 612.7; the 02 - 04 month - spread is at 422.9, down 45.1 from 468.0 [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: The EC market's future trend will be volatile and weak. If leading shipping companies like Maersk maintain a quote range of $2400 - 2600/FEU in December and there is no large - scale over - booking, the near - month EC contracts will continue to be under pressure. The implementation of the January price increase letter depends on cargo volume and shipping company quotes. The period from late December to early January is a traditional peak season, and if cargo volume exceeds expectations, it may briefly boost freight rates [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value. If the December freight rates are implemented at an 80% discount, the EC2602 contract may test the 1500 - 1700 point range; if the price - holding is successful, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [7][8]. Other Information - The last trading Monday for futures in February 2026 is February 9, and the last trading day for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures BC2602 contract is also February 9, 2026 [6]. - There are events such as Iran's actions in the Oman Bay and a ship's actual route deviation from the schedule [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop from December to January. Pay attention to the trend of new - crop discounts, which is expected to drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot in Dalian on November 21st was 78, down 5. The basis in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc. showed different values and changes [4] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong decreased by 101. There were also data on spreads such as M1 - M5, M1 - RM1, RM1 - 5, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [4][5] Supply - related Data - According to CONA data, the predicted output of Brazil's new soybean crop in the 25/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of November 15th, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0% (last week: 88.4%, same period last year: 73.8%, five - year average: 67.2%). As of November 13th, the soybean planting rate in Argentina's 2025/26 season was 15% (last week: 7%, same period last year: 25%) [6] - The shipping purchase progress for December - January 2025 is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. It is expected that domestic soybean meal will be destocked from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be relatively loose [6] Demand - related Data - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, supporting the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the far - month trading volume of soybean meal downstream has increased recently with good提货 performance [7] Inventory - related Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history and are expected to be destocked from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7] Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0713, and the futures crushing margin was - 50.00 yuan/ton. There were also data on soybean CNF premiums in Brazil in different months, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, port soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, soybean crushing volume, and oil mill operating rate [5]