Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Sideways [1] - Copper: Sideways [1] - Aluminum: Sideways [1] - Alumina: Sideways [1] - Zinc: Sideways [1] - Nickel: Sideways [1] - Industrial Silicon: Sideways [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] - Rebar: Sideways [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways [1] - Ferro - Silicon: Sideways [1] - Coke: Sideways [1] - Coking Coal: Sideways [1] - Palm Oil: Sideways [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Corn: Bearish [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Pulp: Sideways [1] - Logs: Bullish [1] - Live Hogs: Bearish [1] - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel Oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - Natural Rubber: Sideways [1] - BR Rubber: Sideways [1] - PTA: Sideways [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways [1] - Short - Fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bullish [1] - Urea: Sideways [1] - Refinery Gasoline: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - Caustic Soda: Bearish in short - term, Bullish in medium - term [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - Container Shipping: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of Sino - US tariff policies may cause significant shocks and fluctuations to small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology stock weights, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices dominated by large - cap blue - chip stocks are expected to show stronger resilience [1] - Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1] - Sino - US trade uncertainties provide support for gold, while silver may experience short - term sideways adjustments [1] - Due to the escalation of global trade frictions and rising risk - aversion sentiment, base metals may face correction risks, but some metals have different fundamental factors [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical situation changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations affect product prices [1] - In the agricultural products sector, factors like supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions influence prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1] - Sino - US trade uncertainties provide support for gold, while silver may experience short - term sideways adjustments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Sino - US trade frictions and rising risk - aversion sentiment may cause the non - ferrous metals sector to face correction risks [1] - For different non - ferrous metals, factors such as inventory changes, production policies, and supply - demand relationships vary [1] Industrial Products - In the industrial silicon and polysilicon sectors, factors such as production schedules, capacity changes, and market sentiment affect prices [1] - In the steel and iron sectors, factors such as production restrictions, seasonal demand, and inventory levels influence prices [1] - In the coke and coking coal sectors, the price trends are affected by factors such as market expectations and trading behavior [1] Agricultural Products - In the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil sectors, factors such as production reports, export policies, and international market trends affect prices [1] - In the cotton, sugar, and corn sectors, factors such as supply - demand relationships, new product listings, and policy expectations influence prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - In the crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt sectors, factors such as OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical situation changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations affect prices [1] - In the rubber, PTA, and ethylene glycol sectors, factors such as supply - demand relationships, production schedules, and market sentiment influence prices [1] - In the short - fiber, styrene, and urea sectors, factors such as production resumption, market transactions, and cost factors affect prices [1] - In the caustic soda and LPG sectors, factors such as production plans, inventory levels, and international market prices influence prices [1] Others - In the container shipping sector, factors such as price levels, market rhythms, and cost lines affect price trends [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have increased, and the non - ferrous metals sector has initially risen but then fallen. The prices of different non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as macro - economy, raw material supply, smelting, demand, and inventory, showing different trends and investment outlooks [2] - For copper, short - term prices may fall after a sharp rise, and it is expected to fluctuate. For zinc, short - term macro - disturbances increase, and the investment view is bearish. For nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be weak in the short term due to factors like Sino - US trade frictions and uncertain policies [9][95][195] 3. Summary by Directory 01. Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Each metal shows different daily, weekly, and annual price changes [7] 02. Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Neutral to bearish. The US government shutdown, poor ADP employment data, and Sino - US trade frictions have increased market uncertainty and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [9] - **Raw Material End**: Bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the suspension of a major copper mine in Indonesia has tightened the supply [9] - **Smelting End**: Neutral to bullish. The losses of smelters using spot and long - term copper ore have both narrowed, and the copper output in September decreased and is expected to continue to decline in October [9] - **Demand End**: Bearish. The sharp rise in copper prices and the holiday have led to a significant decline in the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods [9] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Both domestic and foreign copper inventories have increased [9] - **Investment View**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a short - term decline [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish for single - side trading, and consider domestic positive arbitrage [9] 03. Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. Sino - US trade frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of a decline in global asset prices [95] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. Domestic and imported processing fees show different trends, and the purchasing enthusiasm of smelters for imported ores is not high [95] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The refined zinc output in September decreased, and it is expected to increase in October [95] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The "Silver October" peak season has limited expectations, and the downstream raw material procurement sentiment is weak [95] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Social inventories have increased after the holiday, while LME zinc inventories have continued to decline [95] - **Investment View**: Bearish. Although the export window is almost open, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation [95] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, and pay attention to the opportunity of internal - external reverse arbitrage [95] 04. Nickel & Stainless Steel (NI & SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US trade friction has resurfaced, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased [195][196] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB approval system in Indonesia has changed, the nickel ore premium is firm, and the domestic port inventory has increased [195][196] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The output of pure nickel remains high, the price of nickel iron is stable, and the production of Indonesian nickel iron has slightly recovered [195][196] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The price of stainless steel fluctuates, the production of steel mills recovers limitedly, and the demand in the peak season is weak. The new energy demand remains high [195][196] - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. Global nickel inventories continue to accumulate [195][196] - **Investment View**: Weak in the short term. Pay attention to macro - factors and policy changes in resource - rich countries [195][196] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in a range for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage in the nickel market; Sell on rallies for single - side trading and no arbitrage in the stainless - steel market [195][196]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, Trump's statement on imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products and implementing export controls on "all key software" is positive for the bond market. Bond futures will enter a short - term repair window, with US Nasdaq down 3.56%, China Golden Dragon Index down 6.1%, crude oil down 5%, copper down about 4%, and US Treasury yields down 1 - 2bp across all tenors, and gold performing well. On Saturday, spot bond yields across all tenors declined, with the 30 - year active bond yield down more than 5bp [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. In the new normal stage where the marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth are declining, the balance sheets of residents and enterprises are under pressure, and new economic growth drivers are still being cultivated. Coupled with the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and the low - interest - rate environment is a key part of policy implementation. The logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints - **Weekly Market Review**: This week had only two trading days, with the market rising first and then falling, and the volatility increasing. On Thursday, bond futures recovered significantly. On one hand, the National Day consumption data was mediocre, with the growth rate of cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day holiday slower than that of the May Day holiday, and the box office during the National Day holiday down 19.2% year - on - year. On the other hand, the Hong Kong stock market declined slightly during the National Day, and the unexpected shutdown of the US government may have led to a decrease in risk appetite, helping bond futures continue the pre - National Day recovery trend. On Friday, the market weakened again, with both stocks and bonds falling. The issuance of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds falling slightly short of expectations may be a negative factor, and the main factor driving the decline of bonds on Friday may be the stock market slump and the redemption of "fixed income +" products, leading to a reduction in bond positions [4]. - **Weekly Performance of Bond Futures**: The report provides the closing prices, weekly price changes, weekly trading volumes, changes in weekly trading volumes, weekly open interests, and changes in weekly open interests of multiple bond futures contracts such as TL2512.CFE, TL2603.CFE, etc. For example, TL2512.CFE closed at 113.970, down 0.19% for the week, with a weekly trading volume of 20,551,300, a decrease of 47,287,900 from the previous week, and an open interest of 147,131, a decrease of 282 [5]. 3.2 Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents various aspects of liquidity tracking, including open - market operations (both in terms of quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (both in terms of quantity and price), capital prices (such as deposit - based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond - based pledged repurchase rates), and the spreads between different interest rates. It also shows the data of MLF maturity volume, policy rates, and market rates, as well as the deposit reserve ratio and LPR [10][12][18]. 3.3 Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report tracks multiple arbitrage indicators of Treasury bond futures, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts [44][52][59][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", suggesting a lack of clear driving forces and an expected period of mainly oscillatory movement [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is experiencing a situation where fundamentals and sentiment are in resonance, leading to a decline in the chemical sector, with polyester following suit. Various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and others are influencing the market, and overall, the market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Some ports are responding to sanctions, causing disruptions in China's crude oil imports. The optimization demand for oil products may be better than the chemical demand. For the PTA segment, the domestic PTA device supply has slightly contracted, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the PX device operating rate has been stable. However, due to sentiment disruptions, costs have weakened, and polyester is expected to decline accordingly [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester has remained at around 90%. The inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, with the main increase in polyester load concentrated in the bottle - chip variety, and the weaving - end load has remained stable [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased by 50,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up during the holiday [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is very loose [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha has reached $220, and the PTA processing fee has remained at around 200 yuan, with a slight expansion [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a moderately low level. After the domestic maintenance season ended, the reforming device has gradually recovered, but attention should be paid to the disruptions to the PX raw material supply caused by the current sanctions [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a legal investigation into Qualcomm for suspected violations of the Anti - Monopoly Law due to its failure to legally report the concentration of business operators in its acquisition of Autotalks [4]. - **Investment View**: There are no obvious driving forces, and the market is expected to mainly oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - The market anticipates an oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an estimated surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of 2026, as OPEC+ increases production, the surplus is expected to further increase to 2.3 million barrels per day. China has been increasing its SPR strategic reserves, adding to the global additional demand for crude oil. Most of the current crude oil increments come from the Middle East, mainly provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [24]. - The US government shutdown may affect gasoline demand during the off - season. North American refineries are operating at high loads. As winter approaches and the North American RVP changes, the increasing demand for butane blending may make it difficult to maintain gasoline profits. The change in North American cracking spreads may affect Asian gasoline cracking spreads, and the cracking spreads in major global regions may weaken [50]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's new device, the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons has increased. The profit from selective disproportionation has declined. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, and the operating rate of PX has significantly recovered [33][63]. - The price of pure benzene is suppressing the disproportionation profit. The supply of MX is expected to increase starting in October, and the future domestic xylene capacity addition will continue at a high rate. In 2026, a total of 1.7 million tons of xylene devices from several companies are waiting to be commissioned [63]. - The processing fee of PTA has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. The downstream load of polyester has remained above 90%, indicating optimistic market demand. Mainstream PTA factories have planned to reduce production, and the PTA operating rate may further improve, but it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [70]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price has been weakly operating. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China is still at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are limited, the overseas import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and the commissioning of domestic new devices has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has recovered, and the device load has increased [77][83]. - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation impacts [85]. - **Polyester**: Polyester has continued to maintain a high load, and the production of polyester has increased while the downstream has entered the off - season [91][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the escalation of Sino - US tariff policies and Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China from November 1st led to a significant decline in Sino - US equity markets. High - tech stocks in A - shares that had strong previous gains fell significantly. The short - term investment strategy should focus on risk - aversion, and large - cap stocks may show more resilience [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces** - Economic and corporate earnings: Slightly bearish. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded but remained below the threshold. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6 [3]. - Macroeconomic policy: Slightly bullish. On the first trading day after the holiday, the central bank conducted an over - subscribed reverse repurchase operation of 11000 billion yuan for 91 days, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. There are also expectations for future policies [3]. - Overseas factors: Bearish. After the holiday, the escalation of Sino - US tariff policies led to a sharp decline in Sino - US equity markets. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China from November 1st [3]. - Liquidity: Neutral. As of October 9th, the margin trading balance in A - shares increased, and the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level. The average daily trading volume last week increased compared to the previous week [3][31]. - **Investment Viewpoints and Strategies** - Short - term investment should focus on risk - aversion. High - tech small - and medium - cap stocks may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as put options on the CSI 1000 can be considered. Large - cap blue - chip stocks in the CSI 300 and SSE 50 are expected to show more resilience [3]. - Trading strategy: Focus on risk - aversion in the single - side trading, and large - cap stocks may be more resilient [3]. PART TWO: Stock Index Market Review - **Stock Index Performance** - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.51% to 4616.8, the SSE 50 fell 0.47% to 2974.9, the CSI 500 fell 0.19% to 7398.2, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.54% to 7533.8 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance** - In the Shenwan primary industry index, non - ferrous metals (4.4%), steel (4.2%), public utilities (3.5%), building decoration (2.8%), and building materials (2.7%) led the gains, while media (-3.8%), electronics (-2.6%), power equipment (-2.5%), computer (-1.8%), and communication (-1.6%) led the losses [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of CSI 300 futures was 297998 lots, with a 7.68% increase; the trading volume of SSE 50 futures was 133649 lots, with a 0.34% increase; the trading volume of CSI 500 futures was 325864 lots, with a 12.76% increase; the trading volume of CSI 1000 futures was 447179 lots, with a 10.83% decrease [11]. - The open interest of CSI 300 futures was 278581 lots, with a 6.27% increase; the open interest of SSE 50 futures was 105743 lots, with a 6.60% increase; the open interest of CSI 500 futures was 260074 lots, with a 5.40% increase; the open interest of CSI 1000 futures was 356927 lots, with a 1.50% increase [11]. - **Spread Performance** - The spread of CSI 300 - SSE 50 was at the 95.9% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at the 31.4% historical quantile level; the ratio of CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at the 35.7% historical quantile level; the ratio of SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at the 28.1% historical quantile level [18]. PART THREE: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations** - This week, the central bank conducted 11370 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 11000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchase operations. With 26633 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 4263 billion yuan in the open market [25]. - Next week, 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits and 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases [25]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators** - As of October 9th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 24380.3 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 14.8%, at the 100% quantile level in the past decade [31]. - Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 23334 billion yuan and 22454 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume increased by 3497 billion yuan compared to the previous week [31]. - As of October 10th, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.17, at the 47.4% quantile level in the past decade [31]. PART FOUR: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 from August; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0, down 0.3 from August [41]. - In terms of demand, new orders, new export orders, and production all showed marginal improvements, while in terms of price, the main raw material purchase price and ex - factory price decreased marginally [41]. - **Industry - Specific Data** - In the consumer sector, the retail sales of enterprises above the designated size showed different trends in various categories. For example, the sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and household appliances and audio - visual equipment had relatively high growth rates [37]. - In the manufacturing sector, different industries had different growth rates. For example, the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace, and other industries had relatively high growth rates, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries had negative growth rates [38]. - **Earnings of Major Indexes** - The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent company and the return on net assets (TTM) of major broad - based indexes showed different trends. For example, the growth rate of the GEM index was relatively high, while the growth rate of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 index was negative [45]. PART FOUR: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Driving - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends** - Multiple policies have been introduced, including policies to promote service consumption, real estate policies, consumer loan discount policies, and policies to support the capital market [50][51][52]. - The government has also increased the issuance of special bonds and provided funds for consumer replacement [50]. PART FIVE: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators** - In September, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, up 0.4 from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 2 from the previous value [60]. - The US consumer confidence index in October was 55, up 0.1 from the previous value [60]. - In August, the US seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 2.2 million [64]. - In August, the US PCE increased by 2.74% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 2.91% year - on - year; the CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year [66]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions** - Trump has made a series of statements and actions regarding tariffs, including threatening to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China at different times [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view indicates that the short - term PVC has no obvious driving force and is expected to fluctuate mainly, with a trading strategy of "Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: None" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, with high overall supply, weak domestic and foreign demand, and inventory accumulation pressure. Meanwhile, the profit of two - process PVC has increased, but the export has declined [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has made narrow adjustments, with the supply - demand pattern remaining oversupplied. The PVC supply has slightly increased due to maintenance, and the production capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises has risen. The maintenance loss has also increased [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rates of PVC pipe and profile enterprises have increased to some extent, and the capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable. However, the current export has declined [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of October 9, the inventory - production days of Chinese PVC production enterprises' factory warehouses have increased, and the social inventory has also increased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened significantly, currently at 5 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of two - process PVC have increased this week. The cost of the calcium carbide method has decreased, and the comprehensive profit loss of the ethylene method has improved [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there will be many subsequent macro - events [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: After the holiday, the domestic PVC market has declined weakly, with the spot market price in the East China region being weakly adjusted. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [6] - **Price Spread**: The price spread has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the maintenance, the output in the Northwest region has rebounded [37] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory has been destocked, while the social inventory has been accumulated. Factories in various regions have destocked [47][57] - **Downstream Start - up**: The average downstream start - up rate, the start - up rates of pipes and profiles have fluctuated [73] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the export volume due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition pressure [81][83]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-13 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 关 税 风 波 再 起 ， 注 意 风 偏 受 拖 累 贸 易 纠 纷 再 起 ， 风 险 资 产 集 体 下 挫 03 铁矿石 贸 易 冲 突 再 次 加 剧 ， 风 险 资 产 受 挫 严 重 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 螺纹热卷产量及表需 0 80 160 240 320 400 480 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 08/28 10/27 12/26 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly, and cis - butadiene rubber has been suppressed by macro - sentiment, with price support faltering. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production capacity utilization, the synthetic rubber market is expected to be bearish in the short term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures contract and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, domestic butadiene production was 104,700 tons (up 1.08%), with a capacity utilization rate of 67.37%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while some others like Sinopec Korea Wuhan and Fujian United restarted, leading to a slight increase in domestic production [2] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant had a short - term shutdown for maintenance, while Shandong Yihua and Shandong Weite's plants restarted. Domestic private cis - butadiene rubber production increased [2][3] 3.2 Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: During the "Double Festival" holiday, private car travel increased, boosting terminal demand. Terminal stores' shipments increased significantly, and channel goods circulation improved. The market transaction price remained stable during the period [2] - **All - steel tires**: Due to the holiday, most merchants had short - term vacations, resulting in a decrease in channel trading volume. Most merchants focused on inventory digestion, and restocking was postponed. Terminal demand was weak [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Butadiene**: Last week, butadiene port inventory was 27,750 tons, with no change from the previous week. Refinery inventory decreased, and port inventory increased due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The inventory of sample production enterprises slightly increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina's sales companies lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 500 yuan/ton. As of October 11, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price in China was 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton [2][3] - **Butadiene**: The price of butadiene continued its weak trend, with the ex - factory price and market price showing a downward trend [2][3][7] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Butadiene**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation was - 194 yuan/ton, and the production profit of C4 extraction was 1,765.83 yuan/ton [2] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 364 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 3.15% [2] 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to watch include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For LLDPE, the spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [2]. - For PP, the spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's LLDPE production was 318,900 tons, up 3.21% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points from the previous period. There were no new maintenance devices this week, and some existing devices restarted [2]. - **Demand**: The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products increased by 1.64% from the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 8.9816 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. In August, China's polyethylene imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 488,600 tons, up 27.67% from the previous period. The inventory trend changed from decreasing to increasing. The social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 546,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.44% [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 315, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: This week, the cost of ethane production increased, while the costs of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production decreased. International oil prices fell due to the easing of the Palestine - Israel situation and potential risks from US tariff issues [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend [2]. PP Analysis - **Supply**: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 77.75%, a month - on - month increase of 1.14%. The average capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 79.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% [3]. - **Demand**: The operating rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the demand for terminal food packaging and medical non - woven fabrics increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 681,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.96%. The port sample inventory and the inventory of trading companies also increased [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 12, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of external propylene - based and PDH - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based PP production declined. International oil prices rose, and the price of thermal coal remained strong [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a premium [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend [3]. Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.90%, PE futures price decreased by 1.62%, PP spot price decreased by 2.61%, and LLDPE spot price decreased by 0.69% [5]. - **Production**: PP production decreased by 7.25%, PE production increased by 3.04%, HDPE production increased by 1.45% [5]. - **Operating Rates**: PP operating rate increased by 5.40%, PE operating rate increased by 2.26% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory increased by 52.16%, PE social inventory decreased by 4.63% [5].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Short - term, contract 001 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic bean meal inventory. Later, attention should be paid to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [7]. 2. Summary by Related Content Supply - Affected by less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA still has room for downward adjustment. The recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to the harvest, but the USDA crop growth report is delayed due to the US government shutdown. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress is 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate is 8.2%, higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybean inventory is expected to start decreasing, but the domestic bean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the bean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is uncertain [6]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Bean meal has high cost - performance and high feed addition ratio, and the downstream spot trading is good [7]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. This week, the bean meal inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased and is at a high level, while the bean meal inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [7]. Macro and Policy - The Ministry of Transport announced that starting from October 14, a special ship selection fee will be charged for US ships, which is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump announced that starting from November 1, 2025, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Chinese imported goods, escalating the Sino - US trade tension [7]. 3. Data Summary Basis Data - On October 10, the basis of 43% bean meal spot in Dalian was 108, in Tianjin was 78 (up 17), in Rizhao was 8 (down 3), in Zhangjiagang was - 2 (down 3), in Dongguan was - 2 (up 7), in Zhanjiang was 38, and in Fangcheng was 18 (down 3). The basis of rapeseed meal spot at noon was 186, and MJ - 5 was 168 (down 16) [4]. Spread Data - The spot spread of bean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 320 (down 10), and the spread of the main contract was 27 [5]. Other Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025, the domestic soybean inventory, oil mill bean meal inventory, feed enterprise bean meal inventory days, oil mill startup rate, and soybean crushing volume data are presented in the form of charts, but specific data values are not clearly summarized in the text [5].