Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - On November 21, the A - share market tumbled unilaterally, with more than 5,000 stocks falling and a wave of limit - down stocks in the lithium mining sector. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.45% to 3834.89 points, and the trading volume reached 1.98 trillion yuan, up from 1.72 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Performance - The closing price of the Shanghai 50 Index was 2955.8541, with a decline of 1.74%, a turnover of 60.39 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 1263.25 billion [3]. - The closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4453.6076, with a decline of 2.44%, a turnover of 7067.703 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 4812.96 billion [3]. - The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 4086.72, with a decline of 3.72%, a turnover of 284.80 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 222.85 billion [3]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading - For the Shanghai 50 Index options, the trading volume of call options was 5.22 million contracts, and that of put options was 3.88 million contracts; the open interest of call options was 5.39 million contracts, and that of put options was 3.15 million contracts [3]. - For the CSI 300 Index options, the trading volume of call options was 26.30 million contracts, and that of put options was 12.36 million contracts; the open interest of call options was 9.45 million contracts, and that of put options was 27.70 million contracts [3]. - For the CSI 1000 Index options, the trading volume of call options was 54.63 million contracts, and that of put options was 26.75 million contracts; the open interest of call options was 14.50 million contracts, and that of put options was 26.93 million contracts [3]. 3.3 Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility cones and volatility smile curves for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 Indexes, including data such as 10% and 90% quantiles, minimum and maximum values, and current values [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with an expected upward trend due to increasing costs [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of pure benzene and styrene are oscillating with a slight upward trend. The cost of styrene is increasing, but there are multiple influencing factors in the market, including supply, demand, inventory, and macro - policies, which lead to an overall oscillating market situation [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $200, and the spread between styrene and benzene is $125/barrel. The spread has slightly expanded, but the production profit of non - integrated plants remains negative, showing a bullish signal [5]. - **Demand**: As of November 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 147,000 tons, a 30.09% increase from the previous period and a 24.89% increase year - on - year. There are more rumors of supply - side maintenance, and overseas demand remains poor due to the low operating rate of derivatives, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 17, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 148,300 tons, a 15.16% decrease from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 87,300 tons, a 14.24% decrease from the previous period, showing a neutral signal [5]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has strengthened slightly. The rising overseas pure benzene price supports the upward movement of styrene price, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $200, and the spread between benzene and naphtha is about $125, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. The centralized maintenance of reforming units is promoting price increases, showing a neutral signal [5]. - **Macro - policy**: There is news that Moscow has not learned that Kiev has agreed to negotiate on Trump's peace plan, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Investment view**: Styrene costs are increasing, and it is expected to be mainly bullish, but the overall market is oscillating [5]. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude oil**: There is a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine conflict agreement, and crude oil prices are weakly operating [7]. - **Styrene**: Styrene has rebounded, but the integrated profit is still poor. The port inventory of styrene continues to decline slightly [14][25]. - **Pure benzene**: Derivative demand is dragging down, while overseas gasoline blending demand is pushing up the price of pure benzene [37]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene downstream - ABS**: Domestic and overseas demand is weak in the off - season. The profit of PS has slightly recovered, while the profit of EPS is poor, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Aniline production has increased, but the profit has decreased. Phenol port inventory has accumulated. Adipic acid load has decreased, and the profit has declined. Caprolactam inventory has decreased [52][65][74][84][94][105][116]. - **Appliances**: The export demand of household appliances is dragging down the performance of the sector [124].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][3] Group 2: Core Views - The investment view on asphalt is that it will fluctuate, with high supply and declining demand, and the overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [3] - The trading strategy suggests a single - sided approach with a fluctuating outlook and no arbitrage opportunities [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.25 million tons, a 18% month - on - month decrease and a 3% year - on - year decrease. Different production entities showed different trends. This week, the asphalt supply contracted due to device shutdowns and conversions, and the supply - demand structure improved [3] - **Demand**: This week, the overall asphalt demand weakened. Although the shipment volume in Shandong increased, the overall demand was still declining. As some terminal projects ended, the demand further weakened, and the weak demand was a significant negative factor for prices [3] - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic asphalt inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. The inventory is expected to continue to decline next week, and the supply - demand pattern will further improve [3] - **Cost**: This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated. Geopolitical factors first pushed up oil prices, and then the news of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a partial decline in oil prices. The price fluctuated with limited upward momentum [3] 2. Price - The report presents historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 - 2025 [5][8] 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 - 2025 [12][13] - **Basis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt basis in regions such as South China, East China, and Shandong from 2024 - 2025 [14] 4. Supply - **Production Forecast**: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in regions such as North China and South China from 2021 - 2025 [17][21] - **Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of capacity utilization of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 - 2025 [29][33] - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 - 2025 [40] 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt production gross margin in Shandong from 2021 - 2025 [43][44] - **Diluted Asphalt**: It shows the price, premium, and port inventory trends of diluted asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [47][48] 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 - 2025 [52][55] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 - 2025 [58] 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt shipment volume in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 - 2025 [61] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the historical trends of operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions from 2018 - 2025 [63][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Market sentiment is supported by expectations of further monetary policy easing in Q4, but global liquidity concerns lead to a decline in various assets, including bonds. However, considering China's independence, the pattern of bonds with a ceiling and a floor is difficult to break, and the 10 - year spot bond yield may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85% [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the marginal decline of the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt - driven models, and new growth drivers still in the cultivation stage, along with potential trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally rebound in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures. The synergy of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and the low - interest - rate environment are key for policy implementation. The logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views - **Weekly Market Review**: Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed slight differentiation among different tenors. The ultra - long - end declined, while other tenors fluctuated within a limited range. The market was mainly influenced by the resonance of domestic and foreign financial markets and various assets. News of real - estate stimulus policies in China, concerns about the sustainability of Nvidia's performance, and the divergence in expectations of the Fed's December interest - rate cut all contributed to the market movement. Multiple assets, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, declined due to liquidity concerns, and the safe - haven function of the domestic bond market failed [4]. - **Market Data**: The report provides closing prices, weekly price changes, trading volumes, and open interest data for different Treasury bond futures contracts [5]. 3.2 Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: The report presents data on the volume and price of open - market operations, including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection [10][11]. - **Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF)**: Information on the volume and price of MLF operations, such as the amount of MLF recovery, the amount of MLF injection, and the interest rate of MLF, is provided [12][13][16]. - **Funding Costs**: Data on various funding costs, including deposit - based repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and Shanghai Stock Exchange repurchase rates, are presented [18][19]. - **Yield and Spread**: The report shows data on Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads [34][36][38]. 3.3 Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - **Basis**: Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are provided [44][45][47]. - **Net Basis**: Information on the net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures is presented [52][53][57]. - **Implied Repo Rate (IRR)**: Data on the IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are shown [59][60][62]. - **Implied Interest Rate**: The report provides data on the implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [65][66].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【生猪周报（LH)】 供应压力延续，矛盾持续积累 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 生猪：供应压力延续，矛盾持续积累 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 能繁母猪存栏仍高，生猪出栏量维持高位，出栏体重偏大，压栏与集团出栏博弈加剧。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 终端消费未明显放量，冻品库存上升，表观需求一般。 | | | 库存 | 偏多 | 屠企和冻品库容率均处于同期低位。 | | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | 继续保持contango结构，这个结构背景下，现货若仍无起色，传导至盘面或维持弱势。 | | | 利润 | 中性 | 自繁自养养殖利润连续亏损，价格已跌破盈亏线，养殖户无惜售动力，反而可能加速出栏。 | | | 估值 | 中性 | 目前期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. Consider shorting after a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log ships left the port, a monthly increase of 8. The total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [4][21]. - **Demand**: From November 10th to November 16th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters, a 1.06% decrease from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, a 20,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week, a 0.68% week - on - week increase [4]. - **Valuation**: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, and the valuation is low [4]. - **Investment View**: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. Consider shorting after a rebound [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific unilateral or arbitrage strategies are provided. Attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Price**: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The far - month contracts have limited further downward space after a sharp decline, while the near - month contracts continued to fall due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. The current log spot market is weak, and shorting after a rebound is considered [9]. - **Open Interest**: As of November 21, 2025, the total open interest of log futures contracts was 23,721 lots, an 8.6% increase from the previous week. The open interest of the main log futures contract 2601 was 17,585 lots, a 10.2% increase from the previous week [10]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine in different specifications decreased, and the prices of Jiangsu radiata pine in different specifications also showed certain changes [12]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a 4.67% monthly decrease and a 7.14% year - on - year decrease. From January to October 2025, the total imports were about 19.9238 million cubic meters, an 8.04% year - on - year decrease. In October 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a 0.23% monthly decrease and a 12.47% year - on - year increase. From January to October 2025, the total imports from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a 1.80% year - on - year increase [18]. - **Shipping Volume**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log ships left the port, a monthly increase of 8. The total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [21]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, a 20,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week, a 0.68% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, a 20,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week, a 0.83% week - on - week increase. The North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week, a 10.00% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week [29]. - **Outbound Volume**: From November 10th to November 16th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters, a 1.06% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,700 cubic meters, a 3.17% decrease from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,400 cubic meters, a 7.02% increase from the previous week [32]. - **Processing**: As of November 21, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan per cubic meter, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week [35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 市场风险偏好降温，有色板块继续回调 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 品 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the polyester industry is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side with no obvious driving force [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The tight supply of PX is expected to continue until 2026, which is beneficial to the PTA market. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, the polyester industry maintains a high operating rate, and the export prospects of polyester products are optimistic. Overall, the polyester market is expected to be strong [4][67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The tight supply of PX raw materials is intensified as refineries prioritize using reformate for gasoline blending. The tight PX supply - demand pattern is expected to last until 2026, benefiting the PTA market [4]. - **Demand**: PTA supply is slightly tightened, the polyester industry operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export inquiry of polyester products has increased, and the export prospects are optimistic [4]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has increased this week, and the market is in a continuous inventory - building state [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has continued to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $260, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around $200 [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. With the decline of reformer unit profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4]. - **Macro Policy**: According to the UK's Daily Telegraph, if Trump's Ukraine peace plan is implemented, Russia may be lifted from Western sanctions [4]. - **Investment View**: It is expected to be mainly on the strong side with no obvious driving force [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. PART TWO: Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Rumors of a Russia - Ukraine agreement have led to weak crude oil prices. On November 21, Ukrainian President Zelensky agreed to work on a peace plan drafted by the US and Russia [6][10]. - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventory has been continuously decreasing. The low inventory of US gasoline supports the aromatics market. The cracking profit of gasoline has reached a two - year high, and more reformate is used for internal gasoline blending [11][29]. PART THREE: Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Aromatics**: The supply of PX has shrunk, and the futures price is leading the spot price. The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatics has opened, and there are rumors of physical goods circulation. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the maintenance of reformer units has increased [32][42][48]. - **PX**: It is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. The pricing is closely linked to futures after the listing of PX futures. The supply in November reached a high for the year, but the strong gasoline blending profit restricts the production increase willingness of overseas producers. The demand is healthy overall, but there are potential pressures on the 2026 contract negotiation [51][60]. PART FOUR: Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory at East China ethylene glycol ports has increased significantly compared with last week. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price lacks effective support. The new device production increases the supply pressure, but the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support the demand [81]. - **Polyester**: The polyester industry maintains a high load, and the weaving load is optimistic. The export demand is expected to boost the market [91][93].

2012 31 2025-11-24 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 9 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内商品明显走弱，其中，工业品和农产品板块多数品种均走弱。一是，多位美联储理事发表偏鹰的讲话，美联储10月会议纪要显现出较大的分歧，9月非农 | | | 就业数据改善，12月降息预期大幅降温，美元指数反弹，压制市场的风险偏好；二是，国内经济延续放缓的节奏，政策始终保持耐心，打击市场的情绪。三是， | | | 地缘政治因素出现改善的苗头，油价走弱拖累大宗商品。 | | 海外 | 1）美联储公布10月会议纪要显示，FOMC决定连续第二次降息 25个基点，但在12名投票者中，有两人反对此次降息决定。反对者中，新任理事米兰仍希望降息 | | | 50个基点，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则是支持按兵不动。对于缩表行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止；在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下跌。2） | | | 美国9月非农就业报告公布，9月新增非农就业11.9万个岗位，远超市场预估的5万，创下自4月以来的最大增幅。失业率却意外从4.3%攀升 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 资金博弈剧烈，价格承压下行 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:情绪悲观，价格下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量微降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.81万吨，比13日-0.66%。行业开工率为74.66%，比13日-0.34个百分点；行业产能利用率为79.03%，比 | | | | 13日-0.53个百分点。本周1条生产线放水冷修，叠加1条产线热修，产量减少。下周暂无产线存点火或者冷修预期，预估下周浮法玻璃日产量维 | | | | 持稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，近期产销随着价格波动而波动。但总体看来，下游需求仍有较强韧性。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存震荡，企业库存6330.3万重箱，环比+5.6万重箱，环 ...