Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has increased, the US government shutdown is not over, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is high, which will continue to support the gold price. Silver generally maintains a strong trend, but there are risks of adjustment due to abnormal price - spread structure and potential suppression from Sino - US trade friction on its industrial attributes [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainty persists, US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk of the US dollar's credit. With the continuation of global central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to move up [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, London gold spot decreased by 1.6% to $3965.30 per ounce, London silver spot increased by 1.7% to $49.82 per ounce. COMEX gold decreased by 1.7% to $3980.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver decreased by 1.7% to $47.47 per ounce. The domestic AU2512 decreased by 1.4% to 901.56 yuan per gram, and AG2512 decreased by 0.8% to 11082 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread on October 10, 2025, was - 3.46 yuan per gram (up 2.1% from the previous day), and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 62 yuan per kilogram (up 55.0%). The gold and silver price - spread and ratio data also showed corresponding changes [5]. 2. Position Data - **COMEX Positions**: As of September 23, 2025 (weekly data), on October 10 compared with October 9, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85% to 332808 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97% to 72318 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% [5]. - **ETF Positions**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 0.37% to 1017.16 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.05% to 15443.76026 tons [5]. 3. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 70728 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.50% to 1169061 kilograms [5]. - **COMEX Inventories**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 39940670 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.70% to 522463797 troy ounces [5]. 4. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - **Exchange Rates**: On October 10, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.10, down 0.08% from the previous day [5]. - **Interest Rates and Indices**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, the US dollar index decreased by 0.59% to 98.82, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.22% to 3.52%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.17% to 4.05%. The VIX increased by 31.83% to 21.66, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.71% to 6552.51, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 5.33% to $58.24 per barrel [5]. 5. Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The short - term sharp decline in precious metal prices was due to profit - taking by speculative funds after the cease - fire in the Middle East. Then, the escalation of Sino - US trade friction boosted the precious metal prices again. Gold is expected to be supported by multiple factors, and silver generally maintains a strong trend but faces adjustment risks [6]. - **Long - term**: The long - term center of the gold price is likely to move up due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank gold purchases [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily data of stock index options, including the performance of major indices, trading volume, open interest, and volatility analysis of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and China Securities 1000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.32% to 3933.97 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.18%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 2.93%, the Wind All - A rose 1.31%, the Wind A500 rose 1.56%, and the China Securities A500 rose 1.59%. A - shares traded 2.67 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 2.2 trillion yuan the previous day [4][5] - **Index Details**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 closed at 2319.23 with a turnover of 3020.5964 billion yuan and a trading volume of 1.06 billion; the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 closed at 8622.08 with a turnover of 4709.482 billion yuan and a trading volume of 347.68; the China Securities 1000 closed at 7648.0523 with a turnover of 5305.00 billion yuan and a trading volume of 303.49 [3] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, the call option trading volume was 6.84 million, the put option trading volume was 7.04 million, the call option open interest was 3.95 million, and the put option open interest was 3.09 million; for the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the call option trading volume was 11.83 million, the put option trading volume was 17.90 million, the call option open interest was 19.00 million, and the put option open interest was 8.94 million; for the China Securities 1000, the call option trading volume was 30.05 million, the put option trading volume was 15.64 million, the call option open interest was 27.69 million, and the put option open interest was 14.41 million [3] - **PCR (Put - Call Ratio)**: The trading volume PCR for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was 0.78, the open interest PCR was 0.49; for the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the trading volume PCR was 1.00, the open interest PCR was 8.96; for the China Securities 1000, the trading volume PCR was 0.92, the open interest PCR was 1.06 [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The report shows the historical volatility and volatility cone of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and China Securities 1000, including the minimum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, maximum, 90% quantile, 60% quantile, and current values [3][4] - **Volatility Smile Curve**: The report presents the next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curves of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and China Securities 1000 [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak long - term. The end - of - year peak season may not materialize as expected due to the double decline in supply and demand in October. The market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and rising bargaining power of shippers" before the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026. The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased, with the second quarter of next year being the first key observation point. The negotiation between Israel and Hamas has created theoretical possibilities for the resumption of Red Sea shipping, but the shipping industry still faces multiple challenges [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is at 1115, down 6.97% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1087, down 2.93%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe all decreased, with declines ranging from 4.89% to 10.76% [5]. - **EC Contracts**: Prices of most EC contracts decreased, with EC2506 down 13.05% and EC2608 down 10.57%. However, EC2510 increased by 0.84%. The positions of some contracts changed, with EC2606 and EC2608 positions increasing, while EC2410 positions decreased [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 10 - 12 month - to - month spread is - 568.1, up 53.2 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 spread is 282.0, up 192.9; the 12 - 4 spread is 568.1, up 90.4 [5]. Market News - On October 5, 2025, OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The next meeting on December policies will be held on November 2 [5]. - On October 4, Trump said that Israel agreed to a preliminary withdrawal route in Gaza, and a cease - fire would take effect after Hamas' confirmation. A prisoner exchange will also be initiated [6]. - On October 1, the US federal government "shut down" for the first time in nearly 7 years due to the Senate's rejection of the appropriation bill [6]. - On October 4, the Kriskii refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast was attacked by drones and caught fire. The fire has been extinguished, and seven drones were destroyed [7]. - On October 1, US media reported that the Trump administration agreed to provide intelligence to Ukraine to support long - range attacks on Russian energy facilities [7]. - The Nikkei 225 index rose 4.8% to 47,944.76 points, and the Topix index rose 3.1%. The yen weakened significantly against the US dollar, breaking through the key level of 150 [7]. EC Market Analysis - **Spot Price**: In early October, GEMINI prices dropped to 1500, QA to 1500, RA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The overall quoted price range in late October is between 2000 - 2200, and there are rumors of continued price support [8]. - **Logic**: In late September, shipping companies cut prices to grab cargo, and freight rates dropped to $1300/FEU. In October, supply and demand both decreased, and the market is likely to return to the off - season. Shipping companies' price increase announcements may not be implemented, and key factors to monitor include price increase implementation, peak - season cargo volume, and shipping companies' attitude towards price support [9]. - **Strategy**: A long - short spread strategy between the 10 - month and 12 - month contracts is recommended [10].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 2025/10/10 | 指标 | | 10月9日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == | | == | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 101 61 | 9 -11 | 1600 1200 | ----- 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | | - 24/25 | | - 25/26 | | | 日照 | 11 | | 800 400 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | | -11 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | -400 | | | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 11/27 | 12/28 | | | 东莞 | -9 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current economic operation is generally weak, and subsequent incremental policies may be further introduced. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - For polysilicon, there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, they ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - For glass, the anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - For soda ash, it follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal, the 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For palm oil, Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - For soybean oil, China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - For rapeseed products, the ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - For raw sugar, the high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - For corn, without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - For pulp, the current trading logic is about the trading of old needle - wood pulp warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the pressure on the futures market is high. It is advisable to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - For log futures, the fundamentals of logs are strong, the foreign - market quotation has risen, and the spot price has increased, so the log futures will be strong [1]. - For live pigs, the pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight has not decreased significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The overall outlook is bearish [1]. - For crude oil, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation has cooled down, and demand has entered the off - season, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For fuel oil, it has the same situation as crude oil, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, the geopolitical situation cooling down, and demand entering the off - season [1]. - For asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - For natural rubber, there are many disturbances on the supply side, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the RU warehouse receipts are significantly less than the same period in previous years, so it is bullish [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are continuously loose, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, downstream transactions have become dull, and high - level production and high inventory have not been the main factors for suppression [1]. - For PTA, the crude - oil price is weak, the PX market trading is dull, the Asian naphtha cracking is running stably, the price difference between PX and MX has dropped to $132, supporting the short - process profit of PX. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational maintenance, and domestic PTA production has declined [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East - China ports is still low, the port arrivals this week are still limited, the overseas ethylene - glycol import is expected to decline, and domestic plant commissioning has put continuous pressure on the ethylene - glycol price. After the holiday, as the peak season for polyester is coming to an end, polyester is expected to be weak [1]. - For short - fiber, short - fiber factory plants are gradually resuming operation. As the price falls, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts in the market has weakened [1]. - For styrene, the international crude - oil market is weak, the US benzene price is relatively low compared to the gasoline price, the economy of STDP is obviously weak, and the US export demand is still restricted by arbitrage. New domestic styrene plants have been put into operation, but the downstream polymer industry has stagnated [1]. - For lime, the export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - For DR357, the center of the crude - oil market price has been slightly adjusted downward, the maintenance intensity has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, so the price will fluctuate strongly [1]. - For PVC, the maintenance support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the market is returning to fundamentals, and there is large supply pressure due to less maintenance compared to the previous period, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the price will fluctuate weakly [1]. - For caustic soda, many alumina plants in Guangxi are planning to start production, there are unplanned maintenance increases in Shandong in October, the factory loads in South China and Zhejiang are difficult to increase in the short term, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts. The short - term futures price is bearish, and it is bullish in the medium term [1]. - For LPG, OPEC's production increase and high domestic crude - oil inventory are suppressing the upward momentum of LPG. The international CP and FEI prices have weakened, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, with the peak season not being prosperous [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, the price has gradually fallen to a low level, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound, it is gradually entering the contract - changing period, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - Silver: The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - Copper: The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - Aluminum: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - Alumina: The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Zinc: Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - Nickel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: It is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - Iron Ore: The anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Glass: The anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - Soybean Oil: China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - Rapeseed Products: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - Raw Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - Pulp: The current trading logic is about the trading of

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Typhoons around the National Day have negatively affected sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, causing lodging and waterlogging of sugarcane in the producing areas. There is seasonal upward momentum in sugar prices due to the short - term gap between old and new crops after the festival. In the medium term, the rain - heat conditions in the southern main producing areas are suitable this year, and the sugarcane growth is very good. After the new sugar is listed, the rebound space is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sugar Price Data - On October 9, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5740 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 5930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of SR01 was 5528 yuan, up 35 yuan; the price of SR05 was 5492 yuan, up 34 yuan. The price difference between SR09 - 01 was 36 yuan, up 1 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1516, up 0.0109; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The ice raw sugar main contract was 16.32, down 0.28; the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.08, down 0.07 [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The polyester market is facing a complex situation. PTA shows weak performance due to the weak crude oil market, reduced domestic production, and unburgeoned demand. MEG prices are under pressure from domestic device production, while the port inventory remains low. The polyester industry is expected to operate weakly after the holiday season [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 479.7 yuan/barrel on September 30, 2025, to 471.0 yuan/barrel on October 9, 2025, a decrease of 8.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased by 53.22 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio rose by 0.0214. PTA主力期价 decreased by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped by 35.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 59.7 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 39.7 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单 quantity increased by 2604 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased by 5, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 7 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased by 49.0 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased by 7.8 yuan/ton, and the MEG内盘 price decreased by 51.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain and Operation - **Operation Rate**: PX operation rate remained unchanged at 85.57%. PTA operation rate decreased by 2.97% to 75.70%, MEG operation rate increased by 1.83% to 64.05%, and polyester load increased by 0.58% to 89.38% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 55.0, POY cash flow decreased by 8.0. FDY150D/96F price decreased by 35.0, FDY cash flow increased by 12.0. DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged, and DTY cash flow increased by 47.0. The long - filament sales rate increased by 23% to 57% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased by 5, and the staple - fiber cash flow increased by 42.0. The staple - fiber sales rate decreased by 2% to 60% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price decreased by 35.0, chip cash flow increased by 12.0, and the chip sales rate increased by 17% to 72% [2]. Market Trends and Recommendations - **PTA**: During the National Day holiday, the crude oil price was weak, the PX market had few transactions, and the polyester downstream procurement was stagnant. A new cracking ethylene device in Shandong was put into operation, and domestic PTA production decreased. Due to the weak crude oil, PTA performance was weak [2]. - **MEG**: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China remained low, the arrival volume was limited, and the import from overseas markets was expected to decline. The domestic device production put pressure on the price. The polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased. After the holiday, the polyester market was expected to operate weakly [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China is restarting, which stopped around September 23, and another 1.1 - million - ton PTA device increased its load after operating at a low load last week [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. Pulp futures are running weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices (October 9, 2025)**: SP2601 is 5104, down 0.74% day - on - day and 3.63% week - on - week; SP2511 is 4804, down 0.62% day - on - day and 4.76% week - on - week; SP2505 is 5146, down 0.73% day - on - day and 3.13% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices (October 9, 2025)**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5520, down 0.54% day - on - day and 2.30% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5050, down 0.98% day - on - day and 2.88% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp is 4250, with 0.00% day - on - day change and 0.71% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star outer - disk quote is 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish outer - disk quote is 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus outer - disk quote is 590 dollars, with 0.00% month - on - month change. The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish is 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus is 4830, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in September 2025 [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory also showed a downward trend [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and cardboard fluctuated in September 2025, and the current demand for paper products remained stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 9, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 246, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 716, with a quantile level of 0.92 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On October 9, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 201, with a quantile level of 0.31; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal prices have risen strongly driven by factors such as the US government shutdown, increased political uncertainties in France and Japan, strengthened interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous central bank gold purchases. In the long - term, precious metal prices still have upward space, and long - term long positions can be held. However, in the short - term, due to large and rapid price increases, strong market sentiment, and the impact of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, gold prices may experience sharp fluctuations, so short - term investors are advised to wait and see. For silver, short - term interest rates support a strong price, but the transfer of value between London and COMEX may limit the upside space. In the medium - to - long - term, factors like potential Fed rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and continuous central bank gold purchases will likely drive up the price of gold [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Gold and Silver Prices**: On October 9, 2025, the prices of London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, AU2512, AG2512, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) were 4028.99 dollars/ounce, 48.97 dollars/ounce, 4048.10 dollars/ounce, 48.30 dollars/ounce, 914.32 yuan/gram, 11169.00 yuan/kilogram, 910.93 yuan/gram, and 11129.00 yuan/kilogram respectively. Compared with September 30, 2025, the price increases were 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.2%, 2.8%, 4.6%, 2.3%, 4.6%, and 2.9% respectively [5]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The price spreads and ratios also showed certain changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.39 yuan/gram on October 9, 2025, with a - 0.3% change compared to September 30, 2025. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 81.86 on October 9, 2025, with a 2.2% increase compared to September 30, 2025 [5]. 3.2 Position Data - As of October 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1014.58 tons, with a 0.14% increase compared to October 7, 2025. The COMEX gold non - commercial long position was 332808 contracts, with a 1.85% increase compared to October 7, 2025 [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On October 9, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 70728.00 kilograms, with no change compared to September 30, 2025. The SHFE silver inventory was 1186846.00 kilograms, with a - 0.46% decrease compared to September 30, 2025 [5]. 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On October 9, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11, with a 0.07% increase compared to September 30, 2025. On October 8, 2025, the US dollar index was 98.85, with a 0.27% increase compared to October 7, 2025 [5]. 3.5 Market Analysis and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: On October 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 4.82% to 914.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.22% to 11169 yuan/kilogram [5]. - **Logical Analysis and Strategy Outlook**: Precious metal prices are driven by multiple factors and are expected to rise in the long - term. Long - term long positions can be held, but short - term investors are advised to wait and see. Silver prices are supported in the short - term but may face limitations in the upside space [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are running weakly, and the PX market has few transactions. Polyester downstream procurement stagnated during the holiday. The Asian naphtha crack spread was stable during the holiday, the spread between MX and naphtha narrowed from $88/ton last week to $85/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropped to $132, continuing to support PX short - process profits. The US - Asia MX arbitrage window widened to $185, but there was no news of shipments from South Korea to the US. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has declined. The domestic PTA basis has quickly declined, and demand has not significantly increased. The polyester operating load has rebounded to 91%. Due to the weak crude oil, PTA has shown weakness. Bottle chips and staple fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Spot and Futures Prices - PTA spot price decreased from 4535 to 4500, a decrease of 35; MEG inner - market price decreased from 4275 to 4224, a decrease of 51; PTA closing price decreased from 4594 to 4584, a decrease of 10; MEG closing price decreased from 4207 to 4158, a decrease of 49 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6465 to 6460, a decrease of 5; short - fiber basis increased from 129 to 137, an increase of 8; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 22 to 0, a decrease of 22 [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market prices declined. The prices of East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips all decreased by 46, and the outer - market water bottle chips decreased from 760 to 755, a decrease of 5 [2] Cash Flows and Processing Fees - Polyester staple - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 502 to 503, an increase of 1.01; T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3835 to 3840, an increase of 5; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1566 to 1586, an increase of 20.32; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 510 to 537, an increase of 27.01 [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased slightly from 94.40% to 93.90%; polyester staple - fiber sales ratio increased from 57.00% to 67.00%, an increase of 10.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased slightly from 51.50% to 51.00% [3] Other Prices - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation - large - chemical spread decreased from 940 to 935, a decrease of 5; T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16350; cotton 328 price decreased from 14545 to 14500, a decrease of 45; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7020 to 7000, a decrease of 20; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7350 [2]