投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 卖压后置，短期反弹 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:卖压后置，短期反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏多， | （1）短期基层农户惜售，渠道上量减少，但短期惜售或意味着卖压的后置，建议关注12--1月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳 | | | 中期偏空 | 中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预期。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年9月，全国工业饲料产量3036万吨，环比增长3.4%，同比增长5.0%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为33.6%， 同比下降2.4个百分点。（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但目前养殖利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the container shipping industry is "weak and volatile" [3] Core Viewpoints - The future trend of the container shipping industry will show a weak and volatile pattern. The core driving factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of the January price increase letter, and seasonal changes in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. In early December, MSK quoted $2500, HPL quoted $2700, OOCL quoted $2400, CMA quoted $3550, EMC quoted $3100, ONE and MSC quoted $2450 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. The last trading day of the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthis officially announced to stop maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope actually passed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Bullish. The average weekly capacity deployment in September was 290,000, in October was 245,000, in November was 265,000, and in December is expected to be 290,000 [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years. PA + MSC has the lowest loading rate in the alliance and is more likely to cut prices, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Summary and Outlook** - The market will be weak and volatile. If the top shipping companies maintain the quote range of $2400 - $2600 per FEU in December and there is no large - scale overbooking, the near - month contracts of EC will continue to be under pressure. The implementation of the January price increase letter may face difficulties. The traditional peak season from late December to early January may bring short - term freight rate boosts if there is an unexpected increase in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter. If the December freight rates are implemented at 80% of the quoted price, the EC2602 contract may test the range of 1500 - 1700 points; if the price is successfully maintained, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [3] - **Investment Viewpoint and Trading Strategy** - The investment viewpoint is "weak and volatile". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and macro - policy disturbances at home and abroad [3] Part Two: Price - There are graphs showing the European Line Index, US West Line Index, US East Line Index, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [6] Part Three: Static Capacity - **Order Volume, Delivery Volume, Demolition Volume, and Future Delivery** - There are graphs showing the order volume, delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2029 [12][15][21] - **Ship Prices** - There are graphs showing the new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [28][34][36] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships** - There are graphs showing the existing capacity, average age, and demolition average age of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [43][50][52] Part Four: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)** - There are graphs showing the total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, MSC capacity deployment, and OCEAN capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 [58][60][62] - **Container Ship Desulfurization Tower Installation, Speed, and Idle Capacity** - There are graphs showing the container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those under installation, average speed, and idle capacity from 2018 - 2025 [69][73][77]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the methanol market is basically in supply - demand balance. The port arrival volume has slightly increased, but the inventory fluctuation is limited. The downstream demand has recovered, with the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as olefins and dimethyl ether increasing, which drives up consumption. The coal price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. It is expected that the methanol price will maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and changes in port inventory to operate according to the market rhythm. The market shows a benign interaction between supply and demand, with limited price fluctuation space, and structural opportunities can be moderately focused on [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Regional Spot Prices**: In the spot market, the current prices in Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Taicang, Guangdong, Shandong Linyi, and Henan are 2000, 1985, 1905, 2135, 2020 respectively. The previous values were 2000, 1978, 1905, 2000, 2145, 2000 respectively. The price changes are 0, 7, 0, -5, -10, 20 respectively [1]. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: For futures contracts MA2601 and MA2605, the current values are 2004 and 2138 respectively, the previous values are 2016 and 2153 respectively, and the price increases are -0.60% and -0.70% respectively [1]. Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The methanol market is in a state of basic supply - demand balance this week. Port arrivals have slightly increased, and downstream demand has recovered, with major downstream sectors increasing their operating rates [2]. - **Price Trend**: Coal prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term focus is on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without significant weather issues, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop from December to January, which may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The USDA November supply - demand report adjusted the US soybean yield, exports, and ending stocks in 2025/26, with less - than - expected bullish effects. Brazil's new soybean production is forecasted to reach 1.776 billion tons. As of November 15, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 69.0%, and Argentina's was 15% as of November 13. Attention should be paid to dry weather in some regions and the influence of the weak La Niña pattern. Domestic soybean meal is expected to destock from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter remains loose. The supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to policy changes between China, Canada, and Australia. The global rapeseed production is expected to increase in 2025/26 [5]. - Demand: In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect future supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and its downstream far - month trading volume has increased with good提货 performance, while the downstream trading and提货 of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a historical high for the same period and are expected to destock from November to December. The inventory days of soybean meal for feed enterprises have decreased to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously destocking [5]. - Basis/Spread: The basis is neutral [5]. - Profit: The profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing is poor, while the profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [5]. - Valuation: From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, it is at a relatively high - to - neutral valuation [5]. - Macro and Policy: The US side said that China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans recently [5]. - Investment Viewpoint: The market is expected to be volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. If there are no obvious weather problems, the market from December to January is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop, and it is recommended to short M05 on rallies [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Volatile. Risk factors: Policy and weather. Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. Part Two: Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Meal Products - Soybean Inventory - Consumption Ratio: In November, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased, and the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio also decreased [32]. - Rapeseed Inventory - Consumption Ratio: In the November report, the global rapeseed inventory - consumption ratio decreased [38]. - Rapeseed Production and Distribution: The global rapeseed production and its distribution are presented, with Canada accounting for 22%, the European Union 21%, China 18%, etc. [42][43]. - Brazilian Planting Progress: The Brazilian soybean planting progress is shown, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the planting [48]. - US Soybean Domestic Crushing Profit: The US soybean domestic crushing profit is rising [50]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Import - Related Data: Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume, CNF premiums, and import crushing profit are presented [68][71]. - Domestic Inventory and Consumption Data: Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventory data, as well as data on oil mill operation rate, crushing volume, trading volume, and提货 volume, are provided. The data shows that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, while feed enterprise inventories are at a low level. Soybean meal far - month trading volume has increased with good提货 performance, while rapeseed meal trading and提货 are cautious [78][98]. - Feed and Livestock Breeding Data: Data on feed production, livestock and poultry breeding profits, and related prices and weights are presented, showing that current livestock and poultry breeding profits are poor, and pig prices have declined slightly with no obvious weight reduction [111][117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are bearish, with the October economic data showing a weakening trend, including declines in investment growth and real estate prices. Inflation slightly rebounded in October [3]. - The macro - policy is neutral - bullish. The policy news is relatively quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for further monetary policy tightening in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors are neutral - bearish. Geopolitical tensions may ease marginally, and multiple Fed officials have signaled potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Liquidity is neutral, with the average daily trading volume of A - shares decreasing compared to the previous week [3]. - The investment view is weak and volatile. The A - share market lacks a clear driving force, and it is expected that market differences will be digested during the index's volatile adjustment [3]. - The trading strategy is short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks focusing on domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logics** - Economic and corporate earnings: The 1 - 10 cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with real estate investment down 14.7%, infrastructure investment up 1.51%, and manufacturing investment up 2.7%. Inflation rebounded slightly in October, with CPI up 0.2% year - on - year [3]. - Macro policy: The policy news is quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for additional monetary policy in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors: Geopolitical tensions may ease, and multiple Fed officials signaled rate cuts, with the market betting the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [3]. - Liquidity: The average daily trading volume of A - shares decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment and Trading Views** - Investment view: Weak and volatile, lacking a clear driving force, with the average daily trading volume dropping from about 2.5 trillion yuan in October to about 1.7 trillion yuan currently [3]. - Trading strategy: Short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks from domestic policies and overseas geopolitics [3] 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance** - The CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.6, the SSE 50 fell 2.72% to 2955.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.78% to 6817.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.8% to 7067.7 last week [5]. - Most Shenwan first - level industry indices declined, with power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel leading the losses [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 16.77%, 18.96%, 13.60%, and 14.05% respectively [11]. - The open interest of CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 4.16%, 8.40%, and 11.64% respectively, while that of SSE 50 futures decreased by 2.10% [11]. - **Spread Performance** - The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at 1497.8, in the 92.2% historical percentile; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at 250.3, in the 42% historical percentile [16]. - The CSI 300/CSI 1000 and SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratios were at 0.6, in the 43.6% and 39.5% historical percentiles respectively [16] 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - liquidity** - The central bank conducted 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net injection of 13540 billion yuan. After considering the maturity of treasury cash deposits, the net injection was 12340 billion yuan [23]. - Next week, 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 9000 billion yuan in MLF, and 3000 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature [23]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading** - As of November 20, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24839.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.3 billion yuan from the previous week [29]. - As of November 20, the margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11% of the total market trading volume, in the 93% percentile of the past decade [29]. - The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [29]. - As of November 21, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.39, in the 56.9% percentile of the past decade [29] 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - In October, GDP was not reported, industrial added - value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [32]. - The CPI in October was 0.2% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year [32]. - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September [40]. - **Corporate Earnings** - The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and other indices varied in different quarters [45]. - The return on equity (TTM) of different indices also showed different trends [45] 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - policy Trends** - Multiple policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance since the beginning of the year, including policies to promote service consumption, issue special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement, and adjust real estate purchase restrictions [50][51] 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data** - The US manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous value [60]. - The US unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000 [60]. - The US PCE and core PCE in September had a year - on - year increase of 0%, and the CPI and core CPI in September had a year - on - year increase of 3% [63]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from multiple countries, including China, Mexico, and Canada, and has made various remarks and actions regarding international relations and economic policies [67]

01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | 供给 | 偏空 | 率在78.83%环比增加0.32%，同比增加0.39%；其中电石法在81.31%环比增加0.52%，同比增加3.36%，乙烯法在73.12%环比减少0.14%，同比减少6.72%。 | | | （3）本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在5.358万吨，较上期减少1.011万吨。本周常 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For specific industries: - **Industrial Silicon**: The investment view is that the price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating - upward trend [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4.8 - 5.8, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has a callback pressure and may fluctuate widely after stabilizing, and the trading strategy is to partially close long positions [89]. 2. Core Views The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, cost - profit, and other aspects of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It points out that industrial silicon may fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to supply - demand reduction and increased inventory reduction; polysilicon is in a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the anti - involution policy will continue to be promoted; lithium carbonate has a callback pressure due to factors such as the slowdown of inventory reduction and the increase of overseas ore supply, but the terminal demand remains strong [7][8][89]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 8.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. The output and furnace - opening numbers in major producing areas have decreased. The production in November is expected to be 38.95 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.88% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of polysilicon is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly output of silicone is 4.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% [7]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 66.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%, and the industry inventory is 44.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [7]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%, and the profit per ton is - 40 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan [7]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The production in major producing areas shows different trends [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 12.75GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The new installed capacity in September 2025 is 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25% [8]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%, showing continuous inventory accumulation [8]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41714 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%, and the profit per ton is 8391 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 226 yuan [8]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.72%. The production in November is expected to be 9.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% [89]. - **Import**: In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 2.39 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.86%, and the import volume of lithium concentrate was 53.10 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.02% [89]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of iron - lithium materials is 10.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.15%. In October, the output of new energy vehicles was 177.20 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.59% [89]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 11.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%, and the inventory of lithium salt factories is 2.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.96% [89]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost of purchasing lithium mica and lithium spodumene for lithium extraction is 97058 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.09%, and the profit is negative [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of weak oil and strong gas remains, and the PG futures market is consolidating. The downstream prices of propylene and PP are continuously falling, which suppresses the profit of PDH plants and affects the short - term shutdown of some enterprises. The alkane deep - processing sector maintains a relative balance between "start - up and profit". Although the domestic crude oil processing volume has declined, the start - up rate has increased. The olefin deep - processing in Northeast Asia is supported by the strong demand for oil blending, and the natural gas price also brings potential positive factors to the NGLs market. Therefore, the PG price on the futures market is expected to remain strong, and the oil - gas cracking spread will fluctuate at a high level [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures continued to fluctuate in the range of 4230 - 4420 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices rose during the week, and international LPG trading was relatively active with rising transaction prices, boosting market confidence. In the domestic spot market, the supply of domestic gas decreased. Although the chemical demand for propane declined, the falling temperature was beneficial to the combustion demand, and the expectation of peak - season demand still existed, so the futures market was firm. As of Thursday, the basis in East China was - 72 yuan/ton, - 47 yuan/ton in South China, and - 37 yuan/ton in Shandong. The lowest deliverable product was set in East China [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 505,900 tons (- 0.90%), including 203,800 tons of civil gas (+ 0.25%) and 195,600 tons of industrial gas (- 3.46%), and 173,900 tons of post - ether C4. The arrival volume of LPG was 620,000 tons (+ 12.30%). Two refineries in the Northwest and one in East China shut down, while enterprises in Shandong, South China, and East China started production, but the incremental volume was less than the loss. Next week, an ethylene plant in South China is planned to shut down, and the external supply of refineries will increase. Other production devices may change little, and the domestic commercial volume is expected to recover [4]. 3.3 Demand - The heating demand in winter is gradually approaching, and the combustion demand for LPG is gradually improving with a slow recovery in overall demand. Although the weak PN spread has increased the relative economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material, the substitution effect is limited due to the weak demand for downstream olefins. The supply of the Chinese propylene market is severely excessive, and the high - load operation of PDH plants has suppressed the procurement demand for raw material propane. Driven by the structural tightness of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin, European and American blenders have a strong demand for MTBE, which directly translates into a stable demand for its upstream raw material, isobutane, providing key support for the LPG market and triggering cross - regional trade flows [4]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 181,800 tons (+ 34%). Except for the slight relief of inventory in the western region due to the decline in supply, most markets were restricted by weak demand, and the shipment slowed down to varying degrees, resulting in a certain increase in inventory. At the ports, the number of arriving ships increased this period, and some arriving resources last week were unloaded this week. With sufficient imported resources and more arriving ships, the ports showed a trend of inventory accumulation [4]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 44.00 yuan/ton in East China, - 10.80 yuan/ton in South China, and - 1.20 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 4,561 lots, with no change. The lowest deliverable location was East China [4]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates were 69.64% for PDH, 58.91% for MTBE, and 42.33% for alkylation. The profits were - 378 yuan/ton for PDH - made propylene, - 201 yuan/ton for MTBE isomerization, and - 531 yuan/ton for alkylation in Shandong [4]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.32 (+ 1.81%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary contracts was 60 yuan/ton (- 36.17%). In the fourth quarter, the LPG price was firm, while the crude oil price showed a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread fluctuated at a high level [4]. 3.8 Other Factors - The US Department of Labor announced that the non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The US sanctions on top Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21. The G20 Summit opened in Johannesburg, South Africa on November 22. The Ukrainian and US delegations will hold consultations in Switzerland on the possible parameters of a peace agreement with Russia. Sino - Japanese relations have deteriorated due to the remarks of the Japanese Prime Minister on the Taiwan issue, and China has taken corresponding counter - measures [4]. 3.9 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: Bullish. Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, temporarily wait and do not chase the long position; for arbitrage, pay attention to the positive spread between months on dips. Risk concerns include Sino - US tariffs, US sanctions on Russia, freight rate changes, and device changes [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 美联储内部分歧加剧，贵金属承压回落 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-24 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属有所承压，周线整体收跌。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）美联储官员上 半周表态偏鹰，加上美联储10月会议纪要进一步暴露美联储内部对于12月降息的分歧日益 加剧，同时美国政府明确10月非农、CPI数据均不公布，这意味着美联储官员在年内最后 一次会议前可能将同时失去就业、通胀两项关键经济数据，不得不促使美联储谨慎控制降 息节奏。受此影响，美联储12月降息概率骤降，美股、比特币等资产全线下挫，流动性紧 缩下贵金属价格亦承压下挫。但随着恐慌指数回升，上周五晚间，美联储官员安抚市场， 称预计未来还会进一步降息，且有官员表态预计不久美联储将重新扩表，美联储降息预期 再度回升，流动性紧缩风险有所缓和，贵金属跌幅收窄。（2）俄罗斯央行开始抛售实物 黄金，一度对金价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the methanol market is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the methanol market's supply and demand were basically balanced, with a slight increase in port arrivals but limited inventory fluctuations. Downstream demand recovered, and the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as olefins and dimethyl ether increased, driving up consumption. Coal prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and a slight increase in logistics freight rates supported the market. It is expected that methanol prices will maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend. Market participants are advised to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and changes in port inventory to seize market opportunities. The overall market shows a positive interaction between supply and demand, with limited price fluctuation space, and investors can moderately focus on structural opportunities [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, methanol supply showed a steady and slightly increasing trend. Port arrivals increased slightly, and imports in South China significantly increased, leading to continuous inventory reduction in major consumption areas such as Guangdong and Fujian. In terms of logistics, freight rates in major methanol regions increased slightly, with the freight rates from Ordos to Dongying and from Shaanxi to Dongying increasing by about 9% and 5% respectively week - on - week, providing some cost support for supply. On the demand side, the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as methanol - to - olefins and dimethyl ether increased slightly, enhancing the overall digestion capacity of methanol. The market presented a positive interaction between supply and demand. Although supply increased slightly, supported by the recovery of downstream demand, supply and demand remained relatively balanced, and inventory fluctuations were limited. Overall, the methanol market supply was moderately loose, but supported by downstream demand, the market operated smoothly without obvious supply surplus or shortage [2] Demand - This week, methanol demand showed a structurally differentiated pattern. The demand in major downstream sectors such as olefins, dimethyl ether, and glacial acetic acid was good. The average weekly operating rate of olefin enterprises increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether increased significantly, mainly driven by the restart of Xinlianxin's plant. The operating load of the glacial acetic acid industry increased by 3.24 percentage points, and the resumption of production at plants such as Anhui Huayi promoted the overall recovery of the industry. However, the downstream demand for formaldehyde was obviously weak. Affected by environmental protection control in autumn and winter, the operating rates of the panel industry in northern Jiangsu and Henan decreased, resulting in a significant reduction in formaldehyde procurement demand. At the same time, the downstream loads of MTBE and methane chloride decreased, while products such as DMF and methylal maintained stable operation. Overall, methanol demand presented a pattern of "strong and weak co - existing". The demand in major downstream sectors was well - supported, but the demand in some areas weakened due to policy influence. The overall market demand was moderate, providing some support for methanol prices but without obvious upward momentum [2] Inventory - This week, methanol inventory showed a regional differentiated pattern. The inventory in port areas continued to decline. In consumption areas such as Guangdong and Fujian, due to the rigid demand consumption and stable提货 volume of downstream industries, the inventory decreased steadily. The total inventory in major ports was 1.6085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.91%, indicating that the overall inventory pressure had been relieved. The estimated port arrivals in late November are expected to increase slightly, but due to the continuous support of the reverse - flow window for提货 and the uncertain unloading situation, inventory fluctuations are limited. The inventory of upstream production enterprises remained at a low level, providing some support for the production areas. However, against the background of high inventory supply in coastal areas, attention should be paid to the possible impact on regional prices if low - priced imported goods flow back to inland markets such as Shandong. Overall, methanol inventory was within a reasonable range, supply and demand were basically balanced, and the market operated steadily [2] Methanol Profit - The profits of methanol production enterprises were generally under pressure, and all process routes showed a downward trend. The profit decline of coal - to - methanol enterprises was the most obvious, mainly due to the increase in coal prices pushing up costs, while the methanol market price decreased simultaneously, forming a double squeeze. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia has turned negative, and the loss has widened compared with last week. Other process routes such as coke oven gas - to - methanol and natural gas - to - methanol also faced profit pressure, and the loss of natural gas - to - methanol in Southwest China intensified. Overall, the pressure on the cost side and the weakness on the price side formed a double squeeze, continuously narrowing the profit margin of methanol production enterprises, and the overall industry profit performance was weak [2] Downstream Profit - The profits of downstream industries showed an obvious recovery trend, mainly due to the relief of cost pressure brought about by the decline in the price of raw material methanol. The profit improvement in the MTO and glacial acetic acid industries was the most significant, and the profit levels increased significantly. Although the MTBE industry was weak in its own market, after the reduction of raw material costs, its profit still failed to turn positive, only showing a narrowing of the loss. The profits of industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and chloride fluctuated slightly and remained relatively stable. The improvement of downstream industry profits provided positive support for methanol demand, helped relieve the supply - demand pressure in the methanol market, and provided some bottom support for methanol prices [2] Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of methanol in various regions from November 19th to 21st, 2025, including regions such as Taicang (import, different time periods), Hebei, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Sichuan, Dongying, etc., along with their daily and previous - day price changes and corresponding percentage changes [4] Market Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend chart of the main methanol futures contract (showing closing price, settlement price, and trading volume), basis and monthly spread charts, methanol production and operating rate charts, profit charts of different methanol production processes, factory inventory and order quantity charts, port inventory charts, and profit and operating rate charts of downstream industries [5][8][14]