Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index trend continues to be bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A-share market to run in a "slow bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday. The market has policy expectations for the "922" press conference, and last year's similar press conference launched a series of policy "combinations." Last week, positive factors were mainly overseas, with positive signals from Sino-US economic and trade talks and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year being beneficial to A-shares, while domestic economic data was poor, increasing the necessity of promoting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and expanding fiscal policies [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.46 with a -4.83bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a -4.70bp change, GC001 at 1.40 with a 17.50bp change, GC007 at 1.55 with an 8.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.56 with a 0.60bp change, LPR 5-year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1-year treasury at 1.41 with a 0.62bp change, 5-year treasury at 1.62 with a 2.97bp change, 10-year treasury at 1.88 with a 2.54bp change, and 10-year US treasury at 4.14 with a 3.00bp change [4] - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 22, the closing prices and changes of stock index futures were as follows:沪深300 closed at 4502 with a 0.08% change, IF当月 at 4510 with a 0.5% change, 上证50 at 2910 with a -0.11% change, IH当月 at 2918 with a 0.3% change, 中证500 at 7170 with a -0.41% change, IC当月 at 7182 with a 0.1% change, 中证1000 at 7438 with a -0.51% change, IM当月 at 7448 with a -0.1% change. The trading volume and open interest of IF decreased by 25.9 and 11.0 respectively, IH by 33.1 and 16.6, IC by 20.6 and 9.2, and IM by 25.7 and 10.1 [6] - **Stock Market Review**: The previous day's closing, 沪深300 fell 0.21% to 4523.3, 上证50 fell 0.5% to 2947.8, 中证500 rose 0.75% to 7191, 中证1000 rose 0.92% to 7483.6. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31352 billion, a significant increase of 7584 billion. Most industry sectors fell, while the automobile service and tourism hotel sectors strengthened, and the precious metals, energy metals, non-ferrous metals, real estate services, diversified finance, small metals, and securities sectors led the decline [6] - **Open Market Operations**: Last week, the central bank had 12645 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due. It conducted 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit operations, and 6000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net full - caliber injection of 11923 billion yuan. This week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on September 25 [4][5] Market Expectations - The market has policy expectations for the "922" press conference. Last year's similar press conference launched a series of policy "combinations" including comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, stock repurchase re - loans, and securities - fund - insurance company swap facilities [7] Ascending and Descending Water Conditions - The ascending and descending water conditions of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF升贴水 for the next - month contract is 4.65%, the current - quarter contract is 3.42%, and the next - quarter contract is 2.77%; IH升贴水 for the next - month contract is - 1.67%, the current - quarter contract is - 0.52%, and the next - quarter contract is - 0.38%; IC升贴水 for the next - month contract is 12.79%, the current - quarter contract is 10.66%, and the next - quarter contract is 9.85%; IM升贴水 for the next - month contract is 17.81%, the current - quarter contract is 13.64%, and the next - quarter contract is 12.51% [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of recovery, the port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts of pulp have no obvious reduction, and the pulp futures fluctuate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On September 19, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2505 were 5316, 5018, and 5334 respectively, with day-on-day changes of -0.11%, 0.08%, and -0.22%, and week-on-week changes of 0.72%, 0.56%, and 0.87% [5]. - The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were 5650, 5200, and 4220 respectively, with day-on-day changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.00%, and week-on-week changes of 0.00%, 0.58%, and 0.96% [5]. Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Japanese - like, and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 dollars respectively, with month - on - month changes of -2.78%, 3.92%, and 0.00% [5]. - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with month - on - month changes of -2.75%, 3.87%, and 0.00% [5]. Supply - side Data - In July 2025, the import volumes of coniferous pulp and broadleaf pulp were 64.6 and 135.1 tons respectively, with month - on - month changes of -4.72% and -5.85% [5]. - The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5]. - The domestic production volumes of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp on September 18, 2025 were 23.1 and 22.2 tons respectively [5]. Inventory - side Data - As of September 18, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211.2 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.4% [5]. - The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.4 tons [5]. Demand - side Data - The production volumes of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard on September 18, 2025 were 20.90, 8.30, 28.04, and 35.60 tons respectively [5]. Valuation Data - On September 19, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 182 with a quantile level of 0.896, and the Silver Star basis was 632 with a quantile level of 0.878 [5]. - The import profits of coniferous pulp Silver Star and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were -71 and -124 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.496 and 0.522 [5]. Market Situation - On the supply side, Arauco's September coniferous pulp Silver Star quote was 700 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star quote increased by 20 dollars/ton to 540 dollars/ton, and natural pulp Venus quote remained at 590 dollars/ton. Coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes decreased while broadleaf pulp quotes increased [5]. - On the demand side, the current paper product demand remained basically stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, and the implementation remained to be observed [5]. - On the inventory side, as of September 18, 2025, the inventory showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillation" [3][4]. Core View of the Report - Due to the combination of state reserve sales and weakening market sentiment, natural rubber has returned to a downward trend. Although there are factors such as reduced rainfall in production areas, strong cost support, a significant decline in mid - stream inventory, and an increase in downstream operating rates, the weakening sentiment in the commodity market may lead to short - term oscillatory performance [3][4][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, Yunnan's glue output was stable with slightly lower raw material prices, and Hainan's irregular rainfall affected rubber tapping. In Thailand, the northeast had less rain and better new rubber release, while the south had continuous rainfall. In Vietnam, the weather improved but production had not returned to normal [4]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. However, there may be a slight decline in the future due to inventory pressure [4]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased, but the warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR main contract spread both narrowed slightly [4]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex improved, while the delivery profit of Yunnan whole milk was still in the loss range [4]. - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the domestic commodity market lacks drivers with weak sentiment [4]. - **Investment View**: It is oscillatory. Considering various factors, the short - term performance may be oscillatory [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Due to weak raw materials and state reserve sales, rubber prices dropped significantly. As of September 19, the RU main contract closed at 15,535 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan/ton (-1.80%), and the 20 - numbered rubber main contract closed at 12,300 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan/ton (-2.03%) [8]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices also dropped significantly [11]. - **Position on the Disk**: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased, and the RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [17][24][32]. 3. Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [39]. - **Production and Export in Main Producing Countries**: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC reached 5.443 million tons (+5.54%). From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber (+21.82%) [73][86]. - **China's Import and Export**: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase. In July, China's natural rubber export volume was 5,800 tons, a 36.24% decrease from the previous month and a 3.75% decrease from the same period last year [93]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased significantly [101][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly, but there may be a slight decline in the future [117]. - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Market**: In August, automobile sales growth accelerated, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [123][133]. - **Tire Export**: From January to August, China's rubber tire cumulative export volume was 6.19 million tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year [134]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, and the profit of Thai latex declined [145].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond futures market sentiment was weak this week, with the market rising first and then falling. The first half - week's recovery was due to the pricing of marginal positives around the central bank's restart of bond - buying. The sharp decline on Friday was triggered by the poor issuance of 30 - year bonds and the rumor of a 500 - billion to 1 - trillion - yuan support policy. The market formed a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and bond prices were under pressure. Also, market funds tightened marginally in the second half of the week, despite the central bank's net injection of 562.3 billion yuan. Looking forward, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by positive monetary policy signals, a stable capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields. In the long - term, weak effective demand and a deflationary trend are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [4][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: The market rose slightly in the first four days and fell sharply on Friday, closing slightly lower for the week. The early - week recovery was related to the central bank's bond - buying speculation, and the Friday decline was due to bond issuance results and policy rumors. Some bond futures contracts showed different price changes, such as TL2512 with a - 0.41% weekly decline and T2512 with a 0.12% weekly increase [4][5]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: In the second half of the week, market funds tightened marginally. The central bank's net injection of 562.3 billion yuan did not prevent the overnight fund price from rising to nearly 1.5%. The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to an American - style tender [4]. - **Outlook**: The recent decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by monetary policy, a stable capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields. In the long - term, weak effective demand and deflation are favorable for bond futures, and the bond bull market logic may continue [8]. PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: Information on the volume and price of open - market operations, including currency投放, currency回笼, and net投放, is presented through charts [10][11]. - **Medium - term Lending Facility**: Charts show the volume and price of MLF, including the monthly values of MLF投放 and收回 [12][13]. - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates are presented, such as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, 1 - year MLF rate, loan market quotation rates (LPR) for 1 - year and 5 - year, and deposit reserve ratios for different types of financial institutions [14][16][30]. - **Fund Prices**: Different types of fund prices are shown, including deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond - pledged repurchase rates. Also, interest rate spreads and trading volumes of some rates are presented [20][22][24]. PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - **Treasury Bond Futures Basis**: Basis data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [44][45][47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Net Basis**: Net basis data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [52][53][57]. - **Treasury Bond Futures IRR**: Implied repo rate (IRR) data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are given [59][60][62]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Implied Interest Rate**: Implied interest rate data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [65][66].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "Weak Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - Next week is the last procurement week before the National Day, but due to poor profitability in downstream industries, the resistance to high - priced raw materials has increased. The demand side has limited ability to boost the methanol market. Additionally, high inventory in port areas will likely lead to low - level price oscillations, which will negatively impact the inland market. Without sudden macro - positive factors, the methanol market is expected to operate weakly next week. However, the low inventory of inland factories will limit the price decline to some extent [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Domestic supply has contracted this week due to production capacity losses from device overhauls and production cuts exceeding the output supplemented by restored production capacity. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased, mainly dragged down by declines in East and North China, with only a slight increase in the Northwest [2] - Import volume has also contracted, with about 350,000 tons imported this week. The expected arrival next week is 340,000 tons, a 3% decrease from the previous week [2] Demand - Overall domestic demand shows a differentiated pattern. National Day stocking is restricted by reality, with traditional downstream industries having low profitability and limited stocking. Although the MTO load has increased, some industries like formaldehyde are in continuous losses [2] - The olefin sector is performing steadily, with the operating rate slightly rising. Some olefin plants in the Northwest are continuously inquiring about external purchases, but the restart of some plants may reduce external purchases next week [2] - Traditional downstream industries are also differentiated. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether and methane chloride have changed, while the operating rates of formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid have decreased [2] Inventory - The inventory removal pace inland has slowed down, and port inventory has shown narrow fluctuations. There is still short - term inventory removal momentum [2] - Port inventory is 1.5578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons (a year - on - year increase of 56.06%). It is expected to continue to accumulate next week due to weakened spot buying and restocking demand [2] - Inland enterprise inventory is 340,500 tons, maintaining an inventory removal trend but at a slower pace. It is expected to continue to decline next week [2] Profit - The price of thermal coal in Inner Mongolia has risen, increasing the production cost pressure of methanol. The theoretical profit of coal - based methanol has slightly shrunk [2] - Profits vary by process and downstream industry. Coal - based methanol profits have declined, while profits from coke oven gas - based and gas - based methanol have slightly recovered. Profits of some downstream industries have changed, with glacial acetic acid and MTBE improving, while methane chloride and dimethyl ether have worsened [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - Iran's National Gas Company has implemented a 10 - day gas restriction on petrochemical parks since September 19, affecting three 3.3 - million - ton methanol plants [2] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, a long - short spread strategy of MA1 - 5 is recommended [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices fluctuated widely at high levels but continued to rise on a weekly basis. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot predicts two more rate cuts this year. However, due to the market's prior pricing of the rate - cut benefits and the Fed's neutral - to - hawkish tone, the prices first rose and then fell. Later, dovish remarks from Fed officials and the US government's "shutdown" risk drove prices up again. But the strong US economic data may suppress the upward pace of precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong at high levels, but with the approaching National Day holiday, the risk of increased volatility should be watched. In the long - term, the bullish view remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy gold on dips [5]. - The underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. Trump's policy combination will increase the US federal government debt, weaken the US dollar's credit, and combined with expected Fed rate cuts, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued central bank gold purchases, it will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE:行情及基本面指标跟踪 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - London spot gold rose from $3642.635/oz to $3684.650/oz, a weekly increase of 1.15%. Shanghai gold futures' main contract fell from 834.22 yuan/gram to 830.56 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.44%. London spot silver rose from $42.1610/oz to $43.0590/oz, an increase of 2.13%. Shanghai silver futures' main contract fell from 10035 yuan/kg to 9971 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.64%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio rose from 83.13 to 83.30, an increase of 0.20% [4]. 3.1.2 ETF and CFTC Positions - The gold SPDR - ETF持仓 increased from 974.8 tons to 994.56 tons, an increase of 2.03%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓 increased from 15070 tons to 15205 tons, an increase of 0.90%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 4670 contracts to 266410 contracts, an increase of 1.78%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 2399 contracts to 51538 contracts, a decrease of 4.45% [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory Data - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased from 52.95 tons to 57.429 tons, an increase of 8.46%. The COMEX gold inventory increased from 1210.38 tons to 1227.45 tons, an increase of 1.41%. The SHFE silver inventory decreased from 1247 tons to 1159 tons, a decrease of 6.99%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased from 16405 tons to 16300 tons, a decrease of 0.64%. The SGE silver inventory (lagged one week) increased from 1248 tons to 1252 tons, an increase of 0.33% [4]. 3.2 PART TWO:主要宏观指标跟踪 3.2.1 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index rose slightly from 97.6178 to 97.6519, an increase of 0.03%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB fell from 7.1237 to 7.1196, a decrease of 0.06%. The 2 - year US Treasury yield rose from 3.5494% to 3.5673%, an increase of 0.50%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose from 4.0701% to 4.1255%, an increase of 1.36%. The US 10 - year real interest rate rose from 1.7% to 1.75%, an increase of 2.94% [4]. 3.2.2 US Economic Data - The US GDP showed a strong second - quarter growth, but the manufacturing and service PMI both declined. Retail sales data was strong, while consumer confidence declined. Employment cooled significantly, with weak August non - farm payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. Inflation showed signs of rising [53][60][65]. 3.2.3 Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI increased, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data showed different trends in the Eurozone and the UK [73][74]. 3.2.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month. In August 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.02 million ounces (about 2302.279 tons), a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.87 tons). Global central banks continued to be net buyers of gold in 2025, although the pace slowed down. In the first half of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - bought 415.1 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 20.4% [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is showing signs of activity, and investors are advised to be cautious of potential disturbances. The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, cost - profit, and other aspects of industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, and provides corresponding investment views and trading strategies [1][9][10][86] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Color and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Metal Prices**: The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals. For example, the current value of the US dollar index is 97.6519, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a weekly increase of 0.03%, and an annual decrease of 9.98%. The current price of industrial silicon is 9305 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.49%, a weekly increase of 6.40%, and an annual decrease of 15.29%. The current price of lithium carbonate is 73960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 3.93%, and an annual decrease of 4.07% [7] 3.2 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 9.47 tons, a decrease of 0.81% compared to the previous week, and the number of open furnaces is 311, an increase of 3 compared to the previous week. Different regions have different production and furnace - opening trends [9] - **Demand**: In the polysilicon segment, the weekly output is 3.13 tons, an increase of 0.32% compared to the previous week. In the organic silicon segment, the DMC weekly output is 4.86 tons, a decrease of 0.61% compared to the previous week [9] - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.20 tons, a decrease of 0.32% compared to the previous week. The industry inventory is 44.26 tons, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the previous week [9] - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9105 yuan, an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous week, and the profit per ton is 149 yuan, an increase of 26 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [9] - **Investment View**: The fundamental pattern continues, and the price is affected by small market rumors. It is expected that the price has a downward pressure. The trading strategy is to be bearish on the single - side market, and attention should be paid to the reduction and resumption of production by large manufacturers and changes in environmental protection policies [9] 3.3 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 3.13 tons, an increase of 0.32% compared to the previous week. The production in different regions remains stable [10] - **Demand**: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 13.56GW, an increase of 1.23% compared to the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.87GW, an increase of 1.93% compared to the previous week [10] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 24.21 tons, an increase of 3.36% compared to the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 23700 tons, an increase of 1.02% compared to the previous week [10] - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41056 yuan, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous week, and the profit per ton is 8195 yuan, a decrease of 86 yuan compared to the previous week [10] - **Macro - factor**: A new national standard for polysilicon energy consumption is being solicited, which is more stringent than the previous version. In the long - term, polysilicon production capacity is in a reduction trend [10] - **Investment View**: It is bullish. Before the policy is fully implemented, there is room for market speculation. The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side market, and attention should be paid to the reduction and resumption of production by large manufacturers and changes in anti - involution policies [10] 3.4 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.04 tons, an increase of 2.00% compared to the previous week. The production in August is 8.52 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the production in September is expected to be 8.67 tons, an increase of 1.75% compared to the previous month [86] - **Import**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate is 1.38 tons, a decrease of 21.77% compared to the previous month. In July, the import volume of lithium concentrate is 57.61 tons, an increase of 34.73% compared to the previous month [86] - **Demand**: In the lithium - iron system, the weekly output of materials is 7.82 tons, a decrease of 0.10% compared to the previous week. In the new energy vehicle segment, the production and sales in August are increasing, and the penetration rate in July is 48.67%, an increase of 2.91pct compared to the previous month [86] - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 13.75 tons, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the previous week. The inventory in the downstream is expected to continue to replenish, which will support the futures price [86] - **Cost - Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external - purchase ore - based lithium extraction is 77345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% compared to the previous week, and the production profit is - 6951 yuan/ton, an increase of 612 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [86] - **Investment View**: It is bullish. Pay attention to whether the market will speculate on supply - side issues. The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side market, and attention should be paid to the reduction of production at the mine end, changes in environmental protection policies, and disturbances from large power companies [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened, and the list price of cis - butadiene rubber has been lowered. Although downstream demand is recovering, attention should be paid to the support of macro - policies for demand. In terms of valuation, the correlation between BR and NR on the futures market has increased, and the rubber attribute is relatively strong [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have cumulatively lowered the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China is between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [6] - The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber have generally declined. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli's butadiene has decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared to September 10, with a week - on - week decline of 1.10% [8] Device Status - **Butadiene Devices**: Many devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical are in a shutdown state. Some devices in Central China have reduced their loads, and some in South China have temporarily shut down, resulting in a continuous decline in production [3] - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Shandong Weite, Taixiang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' cis - butadiene rubber devices are under maintenance. High - cis cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization are generally stable [3] Market Influencing Factors - **Supply**: The supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is affected by device shutdowns and maintenance, showing a neutral driving force [3] - **Demand**: In the semi - steel tire market, channel sales have increased, especially in the snow tire market. In the all - steel tire market, the market price is stable, but the replacement market demand has not significantly increased, and some enterprises face export pressure [3] - **Inventory**: Butadiene port inventory and high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprise + trader inventory have decreased. However, there is still an expectation of future vessel arrivals for butadiene [3] - **Basis**: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China shows a neutral state [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The spreads of RU - BR, NR - BR, and the price ratio of BR - SC are in a bullish state [3] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber shows a neutral state [3] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: OPEC+ has started the second - round production increase cycle, the US economic data is weak, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and geopolitical tensions in some regions still exist [3] Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Oscillating upward [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers. The intermediate - link propylene had good trading last week due to the previous cost increase and demand improvement, but PP faces saturated demand and the peak - season effect is weak, with poor price transmission efficiency. In the short term, PG shows a downward trend from its high level, and the negative feedback effect of downstream PDH profits is prominent. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts on the disk, as well as macro and geopolitical risks [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of the LPG futures fluctuated after rising, with an average price increase and a fluctuation range of 4430 - 4520 yuan/ton. The international market was strong, supporting the market trend, and the price reached a recent high. The domestic spot market was average, with both rises and falls, and the basis continued to weaken. In terms of demand, the chemical demand for propane slightly declined, but the combustion demand was expected to improve, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks, resulting in a decrease in production enterprise inventories. However, the arrival of ships increased, and port inventories rose. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, in South China was 150 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 70 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in East China [5] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total domestic LPG commercial volume was about 538,500 tons (a decrease of 0.20%). Among them, the commercial volume of civil gas was 201,600 tons (a decrease of 1.75%), industrial gas was 214,100 tons, and ether - after C4 was 182,600 tons (an increase of 0.76%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. Some refineries increased self - use last week, and a plant in the Northwest resumed operation, so the supply slightly declined. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, but the plants of maintenance enterprises in the Northwest and other places continue to resume operation. It is expected that the domestic commercial volume may slightly increase [3] 3.3 Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is fading. In the C4 deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted but the operating rate is at a high level, the profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep, and the ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH unit to the propylene and PP links, and a negative profit feedback effect has emerged [3] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 180,300 tons (an increase of 0.67%), and the port inventory was 3,234,000 tons (an increase of 1.49%). The domestic LPG inventory varied last week. Affected by factors such as increased supply and weak demand in the West, Central China and other regions, the supply increased to some extent. In Shandong, North China, South China and other regions, the demand was stable, and manufacturers could control shipments, so the inventory pressure was relieved. At the ports, the number of arriving ships increased slightly. With the increase in imported resources and the decline in demand, the port inventory showed a trend of accumulation [3] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 840 yuan/ton in East China, 1062 yuan/ton in South China, and 532 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 13,002 lots, a decrease of 1 lot, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [3] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 64.58%, 55.81%, and 43.82% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 256 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 90.50 yuan/ton respectively [3] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was - 4.35%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was not available. Due to the continuous increase in crude - oil production and the drag on the cost side, the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [3] 3.8 Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ will start the second round of production - increase cycle, and the EIA weekly crude - oil inventory showed a significant decline. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and it is expected that there will be two more interest - rate cuts this year. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [3] 3.9 Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on SC and short on PG [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market have changed little, with both supply and demand increasing, and social inventories continuing to decline. Affected by the meeting held by CATL regarding the resumption of production of a key mine, market sentiment is negative, and there is a discussion about whether eight major mines will stop production simultaneously on September 30th. Fundamentally, if the mines stop production, the impact on the total supply will be limited as other sources can make up for it; sentimentally, it will stimulate the bullish sentiment in the market. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month time node [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,450, with a change of 300; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,200, with a change of 300 [1] Futures Contract Prices and Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 72,620, with a decline of 0.9%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 72,880, with a decline of 0.74%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 72,980, with a decline of 0.79%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 72,940, with a decline of 0.84%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 72,820, with a decline of 0.84% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 858 (1120 · 5 5% - 6%); lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1105; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1815; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) is 6025; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) is 7125 [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,620, with an increase of 80; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 146,850, with an increase of 150; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 119,850, with an increase of 150; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 124,450, with an increase of 200 [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 570; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 260, with a change of - 120; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 360 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531, with a decrease of 981 - 1757; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,456; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,495, with an increase of 1216; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,580, with a decrease of 440; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,354, with an increase of 120 [2] Production Profit - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 75,430, and the profit is - 3049; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,345, and the profit is - 6951 [2] Industry Policy - The eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", which aims to promote the industrialization of intelligent and connected vehicle technology, further standardize the competition order of the automobile industry, and promote diversified value - chain cultivation [2]