1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile as there is no obvious driving force. The supply is neutral, demand is mixed, inventory is bearish, basis is neutral, profit and valuation are bearish, and macro - policy is also bearish [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving force. The supply is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is bearish, basis is neutral, profit is bullish, valuation is bearish, and macro - policy is bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production was 67.37 tons, up 1.98% from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 83.14%, up 0.55 percentage points. Some plants were under maintenance, but restarted during the week, leading to a rise in capacity utilization [2]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall start - up rate of agricultural film increased by 2.75%, and the start - up rate of PE packaging film increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 102.22 tons, down 10.07% year - on - year but up 7.58% month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.92 tons, up 7.96% from the previous period. The social sample warehouse inventory was 50.01 tons, down 1.86% from the previous period and 4.14% lower year - on - year. The import cargo warehouse inventory decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The main reasons were the end of bearish sentiment fermentation, producers' price - holding sales, and new plant production increases [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 379, with the futures price at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: Coal and ethane production costs increased, while oil, ethylene, and methanol production costs decreased. The import profit of LLDPE increased, while that of HDPE decreased, and LDPE increased [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [2]. PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 82.22 tons, up 3.23% from last week and 23.45% from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 79.63%, up 1.85%, and Sinopec's capacity utilization rate was 77.47%, up 1.70% [3]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of polyethylene decreased by 0.4%. The start - up rates of some products such as PE packaging film, PE hollow, PE injection, and PE drawing decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 62 tons, up 3.35% from the previous period. The port sample inventory increased by 3.56%, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 4.95%. The reasons included the restart of maintenance plants, limited demand boost, and high shipping costs [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 44, with the futures price close to the spot price [3]. - **Profit**: The profits of methanol - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while those of oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [3]. Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price increased by 0.15%, PE futures price increased by 0.75%, PP spot price decreased by 2.72%, and LLDPE spot price decreased by 1.97% [5]. - **Production**: PP production decreased by 0.55%, PE production increased by 2.67%, and HDPE production increased by 3.56% [5]. - **Start - up Rates**: PP start - up rate decreased by 2.07%, PE start - up rate increased by 2.13%, and the start - up rates of some downstream products such as agricultural film and PP pipes changed slightly [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 2.31%, PE social inventory decreased by 1.17%, and HDPE social inventory decreased by 1.37% [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: PP weighted profit decreased by 8.81%, and PE weighted profit increased by 25.56% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of supply - demand game, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate slightly stronger next week. The mainstream transactions will be concentrated on low - priced private resources. Attention should be paid to the price guidance of butadiene at the cost end. [2] - The trading strategy suggests no unilateral trading and recommends paying attention to the arbitrage of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec Chemical Sales BR9000 was 10,300 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was between 10,300 - 10,400 yuan/ton. [5] - This cycle, the butadiene end of raw materials stopped falling and rebounded. The cost support gradually strengthened, boosting the trading center of the butadiene rubber market to move up. The domestic butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization rate recovered. The price of private resources was still significantly lower than that of Sinopec and PetroChina resources, but the negotiation center gradually increased to around 10,000 yuan, and the transaction follow - up was less than last week. [5] 3.2 Price Analysis - **China Butadiene Rubber (BR9000)**: On November 14, 2025, the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina in different regions increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with November 13, with a daily increase rate of about 1.94%. The market prices in different regions showed different changes, with some rising and some falling slightly. [6] - **China Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain**: The price of butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber showed different degrees of change on November 14 compared with the previous period. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli butadiene increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase rate of 1.51%. [7] 3.3 Device Maintenance - **Butadiene Devices**: Many domestic butadiene production enterprises had device maintenance plans in 2025, with the maintenance capacity ranging from 30,000 tons to 250,000 tons, and the maintenance time varying. [9] - **High - cis Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Some high - cis butadiene rubber devices were in normal operation, while others were under maintenance or had future maintenance plans. For example, Maoming Petrochemical planned to stop for maintenance for about 50 days at the end of November. [9] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 113,600 tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.99%), and the capacity utilization rate was 71%. The high - cis butadiene rubber production was 28,100 tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.92%), and the capacity utilization rate was 69.92%. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market was supported by the seller's price, but in the next cycle, the new production capacity in South China might release output, and the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes would put pressure on the market. [2] - **Demand**: In the semi - steel tire market, the sales of all - season tires were dull, and the demand for snow tires was expected to continue to release. In the all - steel tire market, the overall demand continued to weaken in the off - season in the north, and the market mainly focused on digesting inventory in the short term. [2] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene Inventory**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%. Most butadiene devices were operating stably, but some suppliers reduced production to control prices, affecting the accumulation of enterprise inventory. The port inventory decreased due to the arrival of imported ships but the non - statistics of some unloading ships. [2] - **High - cis Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 30,820 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.22%. Private resources had price advantages, attracting middlemen to purchase, but the sales performance weakened, and the inventory of production and trade enterprises increased. [2] 3.6 Other Analyses - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 345 yuan/ton, in East China was - 145 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 45 yuan/ton. [2] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,770 yuan/ton (- 0.73%); the NR - BR spread was 1,820 yuan/ton (- 1.36%); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.35%. [2] - **Profit**: The production gross profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,724 yuan/ton; the production gross profit of C4 extraction was 26.97 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber was 790 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was 8.14%. [2] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: On November 10, the People's Bank of China carried out 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 41.6 billion yuan. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 66.5%. There were signs of escalation in the geopolitical situation between the United States and Venezuela, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict affected energy facilities. [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 贵金属冲高回落，短期建议观望 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-17 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 ◆ 上周贵金属冲高回落，但周线仍整体收涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）上半 周，美国政府即将结束停摆，市场预期美国财政部即将释放流动性，同时美联储12月 降息预期提升和美联储独立性继续遭到削弱等，美元指数走弱，提振贵金属价格再度 强势上涨；且白银受益于流动性和供应偏紧(国内库存走低+国内TD升水期货)利好， 表现远强于黄金，沪银期货价格创历史新高。（2）后随着美国政府停摆结束落地， 市场避险需求有所削弱，加上在美国关键经济数据持续缺失背景下，多位美联储官员 发表偏鹰派言论，市场预测美联储12月降息概率低于50%，美债收益率回升，引发投 资者恐慌，美股、比特币等风险资产持续下挫；在流动性风险下，贵金属亦遭到同步 抛售，致使金银价格上周五夜盘大幅下挫，且白银因前期涨幅较大，获利了结压力更 大，因此跌幅更甚。 ◆ 后市展望：我们认为流动性风险持续的时间或相对有限，因此贵金属价格在经历上 ...

Group 1: Market Review - Index closing prices, daily changes, trading volumes, and turnovers are presented for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai 50 closed at 3073.6656 with a turnover of 1324.81 billion yuan and a volume of 0.96 billion, and the CSI 300 closed at 4702.0738 with a turnover of 5100.61 billion yuan and a volume of 7590.5763 million. The CSI 1000 had a daily change of 1.39% and a turnover of 4205.96 billion yuan [3]. - On November 13th, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73% to 4029.5 points, hitting a ten - year high. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.55%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 2.62%, the STAR 50 rose 1.44%, the Wind All - A rose 1.33%, the Wind A500 rose 1.49%, and the CSI A500 rose 1.43%. The total A - share trading volume was 2.07 trillion yuan, up from 1.96 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. Group 2: CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading - Options trading volumes and open interests, including those of call and put options, as well as the Put - Call Ratio (PCR) for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the Shanghai 50 had a call option trading volume of 2.55 million, a put option trading volume of 0.61 million, a call option open interest of 7.18 million, and a put option open interest of 3.16 million [3]. Group 3: Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility and volatility cone data, along with volatility smile curves and next - month at - the - money implied volatility for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are analyzed [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Red Sea crisis has officially ended after two years as the Yemeni Houthi armed leadership announced the end of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea [6]. - From 2024 - 2025, shippers were affected by geopolitics and trade wars, but in 2026, with the intensification of supply - demand imbalance, the market will favor shippers, and freight rates will continue to decline [6]. - Maersk emphasizes the advantages of its "twin - star" strategy, with annual cost savings of $720 million - $950 million and a schedule reliability of over 90% [6]. - In November, shipping capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%, and the overall TPBB route capacity expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. Market demand remains healthy after the pre - peak season booking rush [6]. - The EC market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The 02 contract had a subsidy - to - premium market due to rumors of early delivery, and the market declined on Wednesday due to the end of Houthi attacks [7]. - Spot prices of different shipping companies show obvious differentiation. Key factors affecting the market include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the consistency of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term contract variables. In the short term, the market is likely to remain strongly volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract [8]. 3. Directory Summaries Shipping Index Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), and other related sub - indices are provided, along with their previous values and percentage changes. For example, SCFI decreased by 3.59%, while CCFI increased by 3.60% [3][4]. - **Contract Data**: The current values, previous values, and percentage changes of contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc. are given. For instance, EC2506 increased by 1.17% [3][4][5]. - **Position Data**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2608, etc., along with their changes, are presented. For example, the position of EC2606 increased by 56 [5]. - **Monthly Spread Data**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads such as 12 - 02, 12 - 04, etc. are provided. For example, the 12 - 02 spread increased by 37.5 [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Market Analysis**: The end of the Red Sea crisis, supply - demand imbalance, Maersk's strategy, capacity recovery, and factors affecting spot prices are analyzed [6][7][8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, due to farmers' reluctance to sell and some buyers' need to replenish high - quality corn stocks, spot prices in the production areas are firm, and the futures market rebounds. However, with the expected post - ponement of selling pressure and the lack of strong upward drivers before the full release of supply pressure, the short - term rebound is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent farmers' selling rhythm and traders' stock - purchasing behavior [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On November 13th, the flat - hatch price in Jinzhou Port was 2,200 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Bayuquan Port was 2,205 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and in Shekou Port was 2,330 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). The prices in different regions within provinces such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia also showed various changes. The corn starch spot price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan/ton, and in Henan was 2,514 yuan/ton. The wheat spot price in Anhui was 2,504 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 2,509 yuan/ton [5]. - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the corn main contract was 2,188 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and the closing price of the corn starch main contract was 2,490 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The closing price of US corn was 435.50 cents per bushel, the import duty - paid price of US corn was 2,180.40 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of importing US corn was 139.60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spread Data**: The starch - corn spread of the main continuous contract was 302, and the starch - corn spread of the Jilin spot average price was 460 [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The corn inventory in the northern ports was 85.2 million tons, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 19.3 million tons, the foreign trade corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 19.4 million tons, the deep - processing corn inventory in the Northeast was 184.4 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory in North China was 68.8 million tons [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The Northeast production area still faces the pressure of concentrated supply, and the low - quality damp grain in North China also has storage pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the selling pressure in the production areas from December to January. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the per - unit yield is good, and an overall bumper harvest is expected. The import of grains is restricted by policies, and the supply of imported grains is decreasing [5]. - **Demand**: According to the data of the Feed Industry Association, in September 2025, the national industrial feed output was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by enterprises was 33.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4 percentage points. In the short term, the high inventory of livestock and poultry is expected to be maintained, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. Feed enterprises have a low inventory and a rigid demand for replenishing corn stocks, and deep - processing enterprises have a seasonal demand for building stocks, and traders have a strong willingness to purchase [5]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed in the northern ports is slow, and the corn inventory in the southern ports has rebounded from a low level. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory has increased. With the supplement of new - season corn, the ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprises have a low inventory, and deep - processing corn has a seasonal inventory increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the North China market, weak demand and reduced cost support have led to a rise in market wait - and - see sentiment. Traders are cutting prices to stimulate downstream purchases. In the South China market, low - priced social inventory sources have emerged, and major refineries and PetroChina have successively cut prices, lowering the trading center. In the East China market, social inventory is decreasing, and asphalt prices are stable. Looking ahead, asphalt prices in the northern market are likely to be weak due to lower - than - expected demand and strong wait - and - see sentiment, while prices in the southern market may remain stable after major refineries' price adjustments have improved downstream purchasing enthusiasm [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - In the spot market, prices in the East China, North China, Northeast, and Northwest regions remained unchanged at 3260, 3020, 3500, and 3940 respectively. The price in the South China region dropped from 3230 to 3170, a decrease of 60, and the price in the Shandong region dropped from 3020 to 3010, a decrease of 10 [1] Futures Market - In the futures market, the price of BU2511 rose from 2980 to 3020, an increase of 1.34%. The prices of BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602 decreased from 3063, 3063, and 3082 to 3028, 3029, and 3045 respectively, with decreases of 1.14%, 1.11%, and 1.20% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market remained stable overall today, with a market average price of approximately 1,977 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. Regional prices showed a steady and adjusted trend, with prices in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places remaining stable or fluctuating slightly, and prices in coastal and key regions such as Shandong and Taicang maintaining within a specific range. The main methanol futures fluctuated narrowly during the day, the basis trend was stable, and the coastal spot prices were slightly adjusted following the market. High port inventories put pressure on the market, resulting in a dull sentiment among buyers to enter the market and a general negotiation atmosphere. The demand side was differentiated. Some olefin plants in the northwest continued to purchase methanol externally, supporting the local market, but the demand from traditional downstream industries was weak. Most factories' raw material inventories were at medium to high levels and only made purchases as needed, with low acceptance of high - priced methanol. The inland market prices were narrowly adjusted under the interweaving of multiple and short factors [4]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market | Region | Present Value (yuan/ton) | Previous Value (yuan/ton) | Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Taicang | 2072 | 2072 | 0 | | Inner Mongolia North Line | 2005 | 2008 | -3 | | Shaanxi Guanzhong | 1945 | 1945 | 0 | | Xinjiang (outside the region) | 1620 | 1620 | 0 | | Shandong Linyi | 2180 | 2180 | 0 | | Henan | 2060 | 2055 | 5 | [1] Futures Market | Contract | Present Value (yuan/ton) | Previous Value (yuan/ton) | Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 | 2103 | 2108 | -0.24% | | MA2605 | 2209 | 2208 | 0.05% | [1] Transaction Price Range in Taicang on November 13th - 11:00 - 2080 - 2090 - 01:00 - 20 - 18 - 01:00 + 12 + 15 - 12:00 PM - 2115 - 2120 [1][3] Device Status - Shandong Yankuang Group Guohong's 640,000 - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant started double - furnace operation today and is expected to resume in about a week. - Yulin Kaiyue Coal Chemical's 700,000 - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant stopped for maintenance on October 10th. There was a problem with the boiler on November 11th, and it is expected to resume in 2 - 3 days. [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock indices [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] Summary by Industry Categories Macro - Finance - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and stock indices fluctuate while accumulating upward momentum. There is strong support below the stock indices due to policy and liquidity [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are a concern [1] National Debt - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - High copper prices inhibit downstream demand, but improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price [1] - Limited industrial drivers but improved macro market sentiment lead to a stronger aluminum price [1] - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - There is still a risk of LME zinc squeeze, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1] - The Indonesian government has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, but approved projects are currently unaffected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in 2026. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be noted [1] - Stainless steel social inventory has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production schedules in November have declined. Attention should be paid to actual production [1] - The tin raw material end has not recovered, and there are good expectations for new - quality demand. Long - term, attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - The short - term upward trend of precious metal prices may slow down. When the government shutdown ends and missing economic data is released, it may affect precious metal prices [1] - For industrial silicon, northwest production capacity is being restored, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening [1] - For polysilicon, production schedules in November are decreasing, the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1] - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, but hedging pressure is high [1] Black Metals - For rebar, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to upward pressure, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated in [1] - For hot - rolled coils, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward price pressure after the macro sentiment is realized [1] - For iron ore, the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1] - For activated carbon, short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is okay, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1] - For coking coal, the price is in a dilemma near the previous high. It is necessary to repeatedly test the support. The coke futures price has factored in the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but downstream steel mill profits are being squeezed, and the steel - coke game is intense. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term strategy is to buy at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1] - For coke, the logic is the same as that of coking coal. The futures price is at a premium, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the futures price rises [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean oil, China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and domestic inventory is decreasing. It is more resistant to decline among the three oils and can be over - allocated in arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [1] - For cotton, the domestic new crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up is low, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future policies and demand situations should be noted [1] - For sugar, the global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw - sugar price [1] - For corn, short - term farmers are reluctant to sell, and some purchasers have restocking demand for high - quality corn. The spot price is firm, and the futures price rebounds. However, before the supply pressure is fully released, the upward drive is weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [1] - For soybeans, the near - month purchase and crushing profit of both Brazilian and US soybeans in China is poor. Before the USDA report is released, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] Energy - Chemicals - For crude oil, OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For fuel oil, similar to crude oil, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For asphalt, short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and the supply of raw - material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - For BR rubber, the cost - end butadiene support is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the high - inventory situation has not been the main suppressing factor. The short - term price has stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound [1] - For PTA, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas device failures and domestic device maintenance have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - For ethylene glycol, the decline in crude - oil price leads to a decline in ethylene - glycol price, while the increase in coal price strengthens the cost support. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for polyester is ending, and domestic demand has not significantly declined [1] - For short - fiber, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX, the PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price closely follows the cost [1] - For pure benzene, the Asian benzene price is weak, the US pure - benzene price has increased, and there are more benzene - ethylene maintenance projects [1] - For urea, export sentiment has eased, domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost end [1] - For PVC, new production capacity is being released, the intensity of maintenance has weakened, downstream demand has declined, and orders are poor [1] - For caustic soda, there is a risk of squeeze due to pre - delivery of Guangxi alumina, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, inventory reduction, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1] - For LPG, the international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI price has weakened, the futures price has been re - valued, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - For the container shipping European line, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the PX market has shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited, driven by the soaring gasoline profit margins and the low benzene prices [2]. - The PTA supply has slightly contracted, while polyester production has remained stable with a load above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve [2]. - The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow the market trends. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4600 to 4565, a drop of 35 [2]. - MEG inner - market price decreased from 3961 to 3941, a drop of 20 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4670 to 4700, an increase of 30 [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 3891 to 3892, an increase of 1 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6382 to 6330, a drop of 55 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 118 to 143, an increase of 25 [2]. - 12 - 1 spread decreased from 44 to 30, a drop of 14 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 985 to 930, a drop of 55 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5709 to 5686, a drop of 23 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5709 to 5686, a drop of 23 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5808 to 5786, a drop of 23 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 760 to 755, a drop of 5 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 449 to 463, an increase of 13.63 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10310 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3925 to 3980, an increase of 55 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14395 to 14380, a drop of 15 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1625 to 1668, an increase of 42.14 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7020 [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 560 to 597, an increase of 36.63 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7480 [2]. Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber dropped 28 to 6224. The prices of production factories were stable, while those of traders decreased. Downstream demand was average, and on - site transactions were differentiated [2]. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5680 - 5800 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated first down and then up. The supply - side quotations were a mix of stable and falling. The market trading atmosphere was light, and downstream terminals mainly followed up with rigid demand [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 85.63% to 85.14% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 38.00% to 56.00%, an increase of 18.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, an increase of 0.01 [3].