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聚酯数据日报-20251114
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 08:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the decline in crude oil weakens the cost support for PTA, the news of India's BIS cancellation is positive for future PTA exports, partially offsetting the impact of the crude oil decline, resulting in a limited decline in PTA spot prices [2] - The PX market has shown a rebound trend recently. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited, driven by the soaring gasoline profit rate and the low price of pure benzene [2] - The supply side of PTA has slightly shrunk, polyester production remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve [2] - The inventory of ethylene glycol at ports in East China has increased significantly compared to last week, and the ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. New device commissions have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price, and the tightness of spot goods due to low inventory is mainly reflected through the basis [2] - The coal price has risen, but it does not provide stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The conclusion of the Sino - US trade negotiation and the tariff reduction may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: The price of INE crude oil dropped from 466.2 yuan/barrel on November 12, 2025, to 449.5 yuan/barrel on November 13, 2025, a decrease of 16.7 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased by 151.36 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0604, the PTA主力期价 rose by 30 yuan/ton, the PTA现货价格 dropped by 25 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee decreased by 27.3 yuan/ton, the disk processing fee increased by 22.7 yuan/ton, the PTA仓单数量 increased by 5296, and the主力 basis remained unchanged [2] - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose by 1 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, the MEG内盘 dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the主力 basis decreased by 6 yuan/ton [2] - **PX**: The CFR China PX price rose by 1, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 6 [2] - **Polyester Products**: The POY150D/48F price dropped by 10 yuan/ton, the POY现金流 increased by 18 yuan/ton, the FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged, the FDY现金流 increased by 28 yuan/ton, the DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged, the DTY现金流 increased by 28 yuan/ton, the long - filament sales rate increased by 1%, the 1.4D直纺涤短 price dropped by 55 yuan/ton, the涤短现金流 decreased by 27 yuan/ton, the short - fiber sales rate increased by 14%, the semi - bright slice price dropped by 15 yuan/ton, the slice现金流 increased by 13 yuan/ton, and the slice sales rate remained unchanged [2] 2. Industrial Chain Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained at 88.03%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.53% to 76.84%, the MEG operating rate increased by 0.10% to 64.20%, and the polyester load remained at 89.07% [2] 3. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]
碳酸锂数据日报-20251114
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 08:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) peak season continuing and the supply fluctuating at a high level without a significant increase, the price of lithium carbonate has obvious support at the bottom. Considering the hedging pressure and the resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate widely in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 84,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan/ton [1] Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 86,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.58%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 87,660 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.34%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 87,840 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.39%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2602 is 87,620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.51%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2603 is 87,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.28% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li2O 5% - 6%) is 1,001 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 17 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton; the average price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 8,085 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 205 yuan/ton; the average price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 9,510 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 215 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 36,960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 355 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 160,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 141,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 142,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan/ton; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3,490 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 210 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 40 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 180 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 120,472 tons, with a weekly decrease of 3,481 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 28,270 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,445 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 48,772 tons, with a weekly decrease of 3,236 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 43,430 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,200 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 27,508 tons, with a daily decrease of 770 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 84,065 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 907 yuan/ton; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 87,365 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6,361 yuan/ton [3]
纸浆数据日报-20251114
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 08:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for bleached softwood kraft pulp in 2026, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian softwood pulp and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 13, 2025, SP2601 was 5534 with a daily increase of 0.95% and a weekly increase of 3.09%; SP2511 was 4906 with a daily increase of 0.33% and a weekly increase of 0.41%; SP2605 was 5502 with a daily increase of 0.44% and a weekly increase of 2.19% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.91%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5.88%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3.53% [5]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In US dollars, Chilean Silver Star was 680, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.6 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 million tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 million tons [5][10]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper: double - offset paper was 20.90 million tons, copper - plate paper was 8.30 million tons, tissue paper was 28.48 million tons, and white cardboard was 36.20 million tons [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 13, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 494 with a quantile level of 0.951; the Silver Star basis was 644 [5]. - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [5].
宏观金融数据日报-20251114
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 08:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US government's potential reopening boosted the capital market, increasing expectations of further overseas liquidity release, leading to a stronger performance of stock indices with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly breaking through a new high [7]. - After the cooling of AI and chip sectors since October, the lithium - battery sector took over and led the rally, supporting the strong performance of stock indices [7]. - The current macro - level situation is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, lacking a core driving force. There are disagreements in the market about whether the valuation of technology stocks will further increase and whether the market can shift from a structural to a full - fledged slow - bull market. Short - term market disagreements are expected to be digested through index fluctuations, and new driving factors are needed for further upward movement [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a - 9.93bp change, DR007 at 1.48 with a - 1.22bp change, GC001 at 0.98 with a - 56.50bp change, GC007 at 1.47 with a - 3.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.41 with a 0.26bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 1.54bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a 0.46bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.09 with a 2.00bp change [4]. - The central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 92.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan. This week, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 78.3 billion, 117.5 billion, 65.5 billion, 92.8 billion, and 141.7 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. - The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report stated that it will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, improve the monetary policy framework, and strengthen policy implementation and transmission. It also aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 rose 1.21% to 4702.1, the SSE 50 rose 0.96% to 3073.7, the CSI 500 rose 1.55% to 7355.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.39% to 7590.6. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.042 trillion yuan, an increase of 96.9 billion yuan from the previous day [6]. - Most industry sectors rose, with energy metals, batteries, fertilizers, precious metals, power equipment, non - metallic materials, non - ferrous metals, chemical raw materials, chemical products, and small metals leading the gains. Only railway and highway, banking, and power sectors declined [6]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts generally decreased. For example, IF trading volume decreased by 7.3% and open interest by 5.1%, IH trading volume by 2.2% and open interest by 1.2%, IC trading volume by 9.2% and open interest by 7.4%, and IM trading volume by 11.9% and open interest by 5.5% [6]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 8.22%, 5.41%, 3.44%, and 3.58% respectively [8]. - IH premium rates for different contracts were 1.58%, 1.60%, 0.90%, and 0.77% respectively [8]. - IC premium rate for the current - month contract was 12.34% [8]. - IM premium rates for different contracts were 14.77%, 14.98%, 13.05%, and 12.76% respectively [8].
碳酸锂数据日报-20251113
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 06:59
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with the peak season of the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) continuing and the supply fluctuating at a high level without a significant increase, the price of lithium carbonate has obvious support at the bottom. Considering the hedging pressure and the resumption of production in Jiangxi's mining sector, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 83,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 81,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 are 84,920 yuan/ton (-0.35%), 86,500 yuan/ton (-0.21%), 86,580 yuan/ton (-0.21%), 86,280 yuan/ton (-0.32%), and 86,140 yuan/ton (-0.44%) respectively [1]. Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 984 dollars, and the prices of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) are 1,420 yuan, 2,245 yuan, 7,880 yuan, and 9,295 yuan respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan, 25 yuan, 20 yuan, and 20 yuan [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), and ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) are 36,605 yuan, 160,250 yuan, 141,150 yuan, and 141,650 yuan respectively, with daily increases of 245 yuan, 1,000 yuan, 400 yuan, and 1,500 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3,280 yuan/ton, with a change of 960 yuan; the price spreads between the near - month and the first - continuous, and the near - month and the second - continuous contracts are - 80 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 120 yuan and 140 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 123,953 tons, with a decrease of 3,405 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other sectors (weekly, tons) are 30,715 tons (-1,336 tons), 52,008 tons (-1,280 tons), and 41,230 tons (-790 tons) respectively. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) are 28,287 tons, with an increase of 188 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 82,955 yuan, and the profit is - 815 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 86,558 yuan, and the profit is - 6,476 yuan [3].
股指期权数据日报-20251113
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 06:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a daily data analysis of stock index options, including the performance of major stock indices, trading volume and open interest of index options, and volatility analysis of different indices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Performance**: On November 12, the A - share market fluctuated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.39%, the North - Securities 50 fell 0.43%, the STAR 50 fell 0.58%, the Wind All - A fell 0.38%, the Wind A500 fell 0.27%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.25%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.96 trillion yuan, compared with 2.01 trillion yuan the previous day [4]. - **Index Data**: The closing price of the SSE 50 was 1368.90, with a change of 57.52, a trading volume of 0.32 billion, and a turnover of 3044.3011 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 300 was 4645.9079, with a change of - 0.13, a trading volume of 7486.3766 billion, and a turnover of 209.46 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 1000 was 3904.82, with a change of 266.96 [3]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: For the SSE 50, the trading volume of call options was 2.81 million, put options was 0.59 million, the total trading volume was 7.21 million, the open interest of call options was 3.11 million, put options was 0.76 million, and the total open interest was 4.46 million; for the CSI 300, the trading volume of call options was 12.11 million, put options was 0.69 million, the total trading volume was 21.45 million, the open interest of call options was 11.64 million, put options was 4.96 million, and the total open interest was 9.81 million; for the CSI 1000, the trading volume of call options was 0.89 million, put options was 32.55 million, the total trading volume was 31.56 million, the open interest of call options was 14.83 million, put options was 15.96 million, and the total open interest was 16.58 million [3]. - **PCR (Put - Call Ratio)**: The trading volume PCR of the SSE 50 was 1.65, the open interest PCR was 4.10; the trading volume PCR of the CSI 300 was 0.84, the open interest PCR was 16.73; the trading volume PCR of the CSI 1000 was 1.04 [3]. 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50 Volatility**: Analyzed through historical volatility and the historical volatility cone, also presented the volatility smile curve and the implied volatility of at - the - money options for the next month [3][4]. - **CSI 300 Volatility**: Analyzed through historical volatility and the historical volatility cone, also presented the volatility smile curve and the implied volatility of at - the - money options for the next month [3][4]. - **CSI 1000 Volatility**: Analyzed through historical volatility and the historical volatility cone, also presented the volatility smile curve and the implied volatility of at - the - money options for the next month [3][4].
蛋白数据日报-20251113
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 06:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean purchase margin is poor, and the purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow. In the short - term, the domestic market is expected to continue to follow the US market with a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Before the release of the USDA report, it will mainly be in a volatile adjustment phase. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report data this Friday and South American weather [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content A. Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: On November 12, the basis of the Dalian 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 61, down 5; Tianjin was down 5; Rizhao was - 39, down 35; Zhangjiagang was - 9, down 15; Dongguan was - 59, down 25; and Fangcheng was - 39, down 25. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 98, down 10 [6]. - **Spread**: The M1 - 5 spread was 209, down 9; RM1 - 5 was 62, down 17. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 398, down 20; the main - contract disk spread was 565, up 11 [6][7]. B. Price and Profit Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0785, and the disk crushing profit was 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The estimated import soybean disk gross profit in 2025 was - 251 yuan/ton [7]. C. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation - **Supply**: The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%. The expected yield of 53.5 bushels/acre may be lowered, while the export forecast has room for an increase. There is a risk of relatively dry weather in southern Brazil in the next few weeks, and attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. The purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [9][10]. - **Demand**: In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream of soybean meal has been cautious in recent transactions, and the提货 performance has declined [10]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that inventory will start to decrease in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [10].
航运衍生品数据日报-20251113
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 06:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Red Sea crisis has officially ended after two years, and the market balance will shift to shippers in 2026 with supply - demand imbalance intensifying and freight rates falling [6]. - Maersk's twin - star advantage shows with annual cost savings of $7.2 - 9.5 billion and a punctuality rate of over 90%, enabling a strategic position for price war and service premium [6]. - In November, shipping capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%, and overall TPBB route capacity expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88% [6]. - The EC market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness, affected by factors such as 02 contract delivery time changes and Maersk's open - cabin price reduction, as well as the end of the Red Sea armed attacks [7]. - Spot prices show obvious differentiation. Key influencing factors include peak - season demand fulfillment, shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a strong - side shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **SCFI**: The current value is 1495, down 3.59% from the previous value of 1551 [4]. - **CCFI**: The current value is 1058, up 3.60% from the previous value of 1021 [4]. - **SCFI - related routes**: SCFI - US West is 2212, down 16.43%; SCFIS - US West is 1329, up 10.02%; SCFI - US East is 2848, down 17.16%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1323, down 1.56%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1504, up 24.50%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2029, up 2.32% [4]. Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., price changes range from - 4.72% to 0.19% [4][5]. - **Contract Positions**: Positions for contracts such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., have different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 12 - 02 monthly spread is 112.8, up 57.2 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 577.4, up 19.1; the 02 - 04 spread is 464.6, down 38.1 [5]. Market Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9].
黑色金属数据日报-20251113
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 03:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the macro - economic expectations for steel may be in a vacuum, and the focus should be on industrial contradictions. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, with initial suppression of furnace materials and a potential for resonance in the latter half if supported by macro - funds or policies [3]. - The sentiment in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns, with high supply, large inventory - clearing pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited. If supply remains low, inventory replenishment may start around mid - December, and coal prices may rise again [3]. - For iron ore, short - term supply is strong due to arrival rhythms, but subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On November 12, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were reported. The trade volume of building materials spot was around 90,000 tons, and the market was generally dull. There is no new driving force in the short - term, and the macro - economic expectations may be in a vacuum. Steel production is expected to decline, and the initial stage will suppress furnace materials [1][2][3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - Affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are following the adjustment of the black - metal sector. The fundamentals have problems such as high supply and large inventory - clearing pressure, and prices may be under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. The coking - coal auction has more non - successful bids, but most prices are rising. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1100. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and the high valuation is hard to maintain. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited [3]. Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is strong due to arrival rhythms, and subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will continue to rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3].
瓶片短纤数据日报-20251113
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 03:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gasoline profit and low benzene prices are jointly supporting PX. The gasoline crack spread has risen above $15, prompting refineries to prioritize gasoline production and reduce feedstock for aromatics units. PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new plant commissions. Despite the end of the "Golden September and Silver October," export demand may improve under the easing of the Sino - US trade war. The current peak season for downstream weaving is expected to last until November. Attention should be paid to whether a reduction in Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. Bottle chips and short fibers follow cost trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price remained unchanged at 4600 yuan on November 11 and 12, 2025. MEG inner - market price decreased from 3981 yuan to 3961 yuan. PTA closing price increased from 4648 yuan to 4670 yuan, and MEG closing price rose from 3875 yuan to 3891 yuan. 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6365 yuan to 6382 yuan, and short - fiber basis decreased from 123 yuan to 118 yuan. The 12 - 1 spread decreased from 56 yuan to 44 yuan. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 yuan to 246 yuan. The price of 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber remained unchanged at 5400 yuan. The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 965 yuan to 985 yuan. The price of East China water - bottle chips decreased from 5712 yuan to 5709 yuan. The price of hot - filled polyester bottle chips decreased from 5712 yuan to 5709 yuan. The price of carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips decreased from 5812 yuan to 2806 yuan. The outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 760 yuan. Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 445 yuan to 449 yuan. T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10310 yuan. T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3945 yuan to 3925 yuan. The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained unchanged at 16300 yuan. The price of cotton 328 decreased from 14445 yuan to 14395 yuan. Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1620 yuan to 1625 yuan. The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained unchanged at 7020 yuan. The cash flow of hollow short fiber 6 - 15D increased from 553 yuan to 560 yuan. The price of primary low - melting - point short fiber remained unchanged at 7480 yuan [2] 2. Market Conditions - Short - fiber market: The main futures of polyester staple fiber fell 28 to 6242. The prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were stable, and the prices of traders were sorted out. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and on - site transactions were cautious. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - glossy natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6160 - 6460 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up. In the North China market, it was 6280 - 6580 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. In the Fujian market, it was 6180 - 6400 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle - chip market: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, with the average price down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. The supply - side offers were stable or falling. The market trading atmosphere was light, and downstream terminals mainly had rigid - demand orders. The bottle - chip price decreased slightly [2] 3. Load and Production - Sales Rates - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 85.63% to 85.14%. The polyester staple fiber production - sales rate increased from 37.00% to 38.00%. The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%. The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]