1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly bearish as there is no obvious driving force [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that due to factors such as the decline in crude oil prices, the return of domestic PTA device supply, and the seasonal weakening of aromatics, the PTA market shows a weak trend. Although the downstream load of polyester remains at a high level, there is still no obvious driving force in the market, and it is expected to be mainly bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. Crude oil prices are falling, domestic PTA device supply is gradually returning, PTA basis is weakening, and PX device operating rate is rising while the spread between PX and naphtha is shrinking [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 91%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the load of the weaving end has increased slightly [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. PTA port inventory has decreased by 40,000 tons [3]. - **Basis**: Bearish. PTA basis has weakened rapidly, profits have continued to shrink, and market liquidity is very loose [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $220, and PTA processing fees remain at around 150 yuan and have shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. PTA prices are at a neutral to low level, and aromatics supply has increased due to the return of reforming devices and the postponement of domestic PX mainstream device overhauls [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [3][8]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Expected to be mainly bearish with no obvious driving force [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical crises still exist, and prices have dropped significantly. Trump called for further price cuts. Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased sharply in the week of September 14, but the four - week average export volume increased slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 [5][8]. - **Gasoline**: The peak season for gasoline is ending, and the premium of high - octane components is weakening. Refinery operating rates have risen to 94.9%, gasoline production has decreased to 9.6 million barrels per day, and total gasoline inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels compared to last week. The driving season will end at the end of September [23]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Supply - Side Changes**: Overhauled devices are returning, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply has increased. Some refineries have device maintenance and new device production plans, which will affect the supply of pure benzene, toluene, and xylene [32][53]. - **Profit Situation**: Selective disproportionation profit has declined, and pure benzene prices are suppressing disproportionation profit. The spread between PX and naphtha has shrunk, and PX short - process profit is still supported [49][54]. - **Market Conditions**: The US - Asia MX spread has widened, but there is no news of exports from South Korea to the US. The spot PX price is gradually falling, and the spread between PX and naphtha has decreased [60]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is returning, and prices are weak. East China ethylene glycol port inventory is 465,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline. Overseas imports are expected to decrease, but domestic device production is pressuring prices [75][83]. - **Polyester**: It maintains a high load, but production is increasing while the downstream is entering the off - season. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under pressure [89][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on oil prices is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Without an obvious logical driver, oil prices are expected to maintain an oscillating performance. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and compensatory production cuts offset some pessimistic sentiment. The end of the summer consumption peak season and the political tendency of the US (Trump) to suppress oil prices will keep oil prices oscillating in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium to Long - Term)**: Bearish. EIA raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. In August 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production data shows an overall upward trend in some regions [3]. - **Demand (Medium to Long - Term)**: Neutral. Different institutions have different adjustment trends for the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, but overall, the demand shows a certain upward trend [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: Neutral. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly in the week ending September 12, while refined oil inventory had different changes [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium to Long - Term)**: Bearish. OPEC+ agrees to increase production in October 2025, and countries that over - produce will compensate for the excess production [3]. - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Neutral. Trump's actions and statements may have an impact on oil prices, but the current impact is relatively neutral [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: Bullish. The Fed cuts interest rates, and Sino - US relations show positive signals [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Given the above factors, short - term oil prices will oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Oil prices oscillated this week. The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but EIA data increased bearish sentiment. As of September 19, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices had different changes [6]. - **Month - spread and Internal - external Spread**: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The far - month is moving towards a contango structure [23]. - **Crack Spread**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, declined [26][36]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - OPEC production increased in August 2025, with different data from EIA, OPEC, and IEA [46][54]. - Non - OPEC countries' production also increased [56]. - US weekly crude oil production decreased to 1348.2 barrels per day in the week ending September 12, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [69][78]. - **Inventory** - US commercial inventory decreased, and Cushing inventory decreased [79]. - Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [87]. - Chinese port and commercial inventories of crude oil and refined oil had different changes [97][102]. - **Demand** - In the US, gasoline implied demand rebounded, and refinery operating rates decreased slightly [107][117]. - In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly [118][125]. - Chinese refinery profits: Main - refinery gross margins and gasoline - diesel crack spreads declined [126]. - **Macro - finance**: The Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the US dollar index weakened [139]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative net short positions of WTI crude oil decreased [148].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes - PE data shows various trends over time, including production, price, and inventory changes. For example, PE production increased from 610,000 tons last week to 630,000 tons this week, a rise of 2.97%. HDPE production increased from 260,000 tons to 270,000 tons, a 2.62% increase. PE开工率 increased from 78.04% to 80.36%, a 2.97% increase [5]. - Different types of PE (LLDPE, LDPE, HDPE) have different price and production change rates. LLDPE had a 4.65% increase in production, LDPE had a 16.97% increase, and HDPE had a 25.08% increase [2]. PP Fundamental Changes - PP data also shows trends in price, production, and inventory. PP production increased by 12.59% this week compared to last week. PP开工率 increased from 33.2% to 34.0%, a 2.44% increase [5]. - PP has different production methods (MTO, PDH), and their profit margins and price differentials are presented. For example, MTO -875, PDH -489 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Domestic PTA device is gradually returning, PTA production is rising, PTA basis is rapidly declining, and the market is under significant pressure due to Hengli's concentrated shipments. OPEC+ has increased oil production again, leading to a sharp decline in crude oil prices. The spread between PX and naphtha has shrunk. Recently, production and sales have weakened, inventory has increased, and as the off - season is approaching, the operating load of polyester has risen to 91%. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the basis, PTA is performing weakly [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Indicators Price and Spread Changes - PTA spot price dropped from 4630 to 4555, a decrease of 75; MEG inner - market price dropped from 4362 to 4351, a decrease of 11; PTA closing price dropped from 4666 to 4604, a decrease of 62; MEG closing price dropped from 4268 to 4257, a decrease of 11; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price dropped from 6540 to 6490, a decrease of 50; short - fiber basis increased from 72 to 111, an increase of 39; 10 - 11 spread increased from 6 to 8, an increase of 2; 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical spread decreased from 890 to 840, a decrease of 50;华东水瓶片, hot - filling polyester bottle - chip, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle - chip prices all dropped by 40; outer - market water bottle - chip price dropped from 770 to 765, a decrease of 5; T32S pure polyester yarn price dropped from 10300 to 10270, a decrease of 30; cotton 328 price dropped from 14890 to 14870, a decrease of 20 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee Changes - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 427 to 455, an increase of 27.81; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3760 to 3780, an increase of 20; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1286 to 1326, an increase of 40.71; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 430 to 498, an increase of 67.81 [2] Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber dropped by 122 to 6284. The spot market was mainly based on price negotiations by production factories, the prices of traders declined, downstream buyers replenished at low prices, the trading volume in the trader segment was good, and the factory trading volume was average. The price range of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - glossy natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6270 - 6570 (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pick - up), in the North China market was 6390 - 6690 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and in the Fujian market was 6270 - 6500 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered). In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5750 - 5870 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures were weakly operating, the supply side lowered its offers, downstream end - users made rigid purchases, and the market trading was okay, but the price center of bottle - chips declined [2] Load and Production - Sales Rate - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) was 94.40%, with a change of 0.01; the polyester staple fiber production - sales rate was 52.00%, a decrease of 8.00% compared to the previous period; the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) was 63.50%, with no change; the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) was 51.00%, with a change of 0.01 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA prices declined and the basis weakened due to weak crude oil market, concerns about PX unit maintenance delays, and sufficient spot supply. Meanwhile, the decline in prices was beneficial for downstream cost reduction. The domestic PTA production increased as PTA units gradually resumed operation, leading to a rapid decline in the PTA basis and market pressure. The increase in OPEC+ oil production caused a significant drop in crude oil prices, and the spread between PX and naphtha narrowed. With weaker sales, rising inventories, and the approaching off - season, PTA showed weakness [2]. - The ethylene glycol futures fluctuated weakly, and the spot market price followed the low - level operation with a slight increase in the basis. The ethylene glycol inventory at East China ports continued to decline, and the port was expected to continue destocking. However, domestic device commissioning and the return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices put continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price [2]. - The overall polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: The INE crude oil price dropped from 491.8 yuan/barrel on September 18, 2025, to 487.0 yuan/barrel on September 19, 2025, a decrease of 4.80 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1092.0 yuan/ton to 1064.9 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3056 to 1.3009. The PTA主力期价 dropped from 4666 yuan/ton to 4604 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell from 4630 yuan/ton to 4555 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 151.8 yuan/ton to 148.2 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased from 227.8 yuan/ton to 222.2 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 77 to 82 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price decreased from 827 to 816, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 218 to 219 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 dropped from 4268 yuan/ton to 4257 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 121.50 yuan/ton to - 120.69 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 4362 to 4351, and the basis decreased from 85 to 80 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained at 85.57%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 78.25%, the MEG start - up rate increased from 61.32% to 62.20%, and the polyester load remained at 89.00% [2]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F decreased by 25, 65, and 45 respectively. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 43, 3, and 23 respectively. The polyester filament sales rate increased from 40% to 43% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 50, the cash flow increased by 18, and the sales rate decreased from 61% to 51% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 30, the cash flow increased by 38, and the sales rate decreased from 69% to 52% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA unit in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2].

PART ONE: Main Points and Strategy Overview 1. PVC Main Weekly Data Summary - **Price Data**: The latest PVC main contract price is 4950 yuan/ton, up 1.52% from last week; the near - month price is 4838 yuan/ton, up 2.74%; the Changzhou Salt Lake price is 4740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%; the Changzhou Yihua price is 4750 yuan/ton, up 1.71%; the Changzhou E'rong price is 4780 yuan/ton, up 1.70%; the northwest calcium carbide price is 2550 yuan/ton, up 6.25%; the East China ethylene price is 6850 yuan/ton, down 3.18% [4]. - **Production Data**: China's PVC production is 46.09 million tons, down 3.74%; calcium carbide - based production is 32.86 million tons, down 3.15%; ethylene - based production is 13.23 million tons, down 5.16% [4]. - **Capacity Utilization Data**: China's overall PVC capacity utilization is 76.96%, down 3.73%; calcium carbide capacity utilization is 64.15%, down 3.02%; calcium carbide - based capacity utilization is 76.89%, down 3.15%; ethylene - based capacity utilization is 77.12%, down 5.15% [4]. - **Inventory Data**: Social inventory is 53.46 million tons, up 0.56%; factory inventory is 30.62 million tons, down 1.20%; calcium carbide - based factory inventory is 24.10 million tons, down 1.31%; ethylene - based factory inventory is 6.52 million tons, down 0.82% [4]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization and Sales Rate**: Profile capacity utilization is 39.43%, up 0.54%; pipe capacity utilization is 39.13%, up 4.04%; northwest sales rate is 216.57%, up 9.44%; Shandong sales rate is 221.51%, up 29.17% [4]. - **Cost and Profit Data**: Integrated profit is 449.07 yuan/ton, up 2.28%; externally - purchased chlor - alkali profit is - 652.20 yuan/ton, up 2.96% [4]. PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - PVC prices fluctuated in the range of 4710 - 4840 yuan/ton, 4800 - 4850 yuan/ton, 4570 - 4670 yuan/ton, and 4690 - 4750 yuan/ton [6]. PART THREE: PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - There are multiple historical data charts showing the trends of various PVC - related indicators from 2019 to 2025, including price, production, capacity utilization, inventory, and cost - profit, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [16][18][19]. Variety View Evaluation System | View Rating | Short - term (Within 1 month) | Medium - term (1 - 3 months) | Long - term (Over 3 months) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Strongly Bullish | Rise over 15% | Rise over 15% | Rise over 15% | | Bullish | Rise 5 - 15% | Rise 5 - 15% | Rise 5 - 15% | | Sideways | Fluctuation - 5% - 5% | Fluctuation - 5% - 5% | Fluctuation - 5% - 5% | | Bearish | Fall 5 - 15% | Fall 5 - 15% | Fall 5 - 15% | | Strongly Bearish | Fall over 15% | Fall over 15% | Fall over 15% | [89]

the first 同制的词 2）逻辑分析：由于美联储9月降息表态并无超预期内容，因此在降息落地后，市场焦点转向美联储官员的密集表态。周五晚间，美联储官员卡什卡利除今年再降息 取łd微气 (敬提合适的，劳动力市场风险可能大于通胀风险，新任理事米兰亦再度发表龄派言论，市场进一步押注美联储年内将连续降息。从而提振贵金属价格反弹，另一 l8《个人方面，特朗普预测美国联邦政府"很可能"在10月陷入停摆，再度引发市场的趣脸情绪，亦对贵金属价格构成提振，展望后市，我们认为短期贵金属价格仍会维持 意见,以 高位偏强运行,本周除了继续关注美联储官员的密集讲话外,还建议关注欧美PM1和美国PCE等数据。 供参考) 3）中长期逻辑：中长期来看，美联储年内仍有降息空间、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和大国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用风险、全球共行购金延 续等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移。 体拥备中的信息均源于公天可获得的谈外，国资策货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性以任何保证、本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别数资者接持的货资目标、购多优规或需要，投资 者需自行判随本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其标定状况 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The demand for steel in the peak season is not strong, with marginal improvement in building material apparent demand. There is a cost - support due to pre - National Day furnace charge replenishment, but high building material production raises concerns for the distant market. Futures unilateral trading lacks strong rebound drive, and it's recommended to wait and see. For basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider rolling profit - taking before the National Day [2]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from loss to profit, supply is increasing, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely. With the arrival of the peak season, there are risks of decreased iron - water and electric - furnace operation, and high inventory needs to be digested [3][5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot prices are rising, and with domestic policy expectations and overseas interest - rate cuts, there is strong bottom support. Before the National Day, it's advisable to go long on dips, but also pay attention to taking profits at high prices [6]. - **Iron Ore**: During the replenishment period, there is support for iron ore prices, but the upward space depends on the steel demand. Long - term, it's recommended to go long on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Futures Market - **Prices and Changes on September 19**: - **Far - month Contracts**: RB2605 closed at 3232 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (0.75%); HC2605 at 3384 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.21%); I2605 at 786 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.77%); J2605 at 1883 yuan/ton, up 29.5 yuan (1.59%); JM2605 at 1334 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan (2.42%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts**: RB2601 closed at 3172 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan (0.73%); HC2601 at 3374 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.18%); I2601 at 807.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.81%); J2601 at 1738.5 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (0.75%); JM2601 at 1232 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan (-1.36%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: - **Cross - month Spreads**: RB2601 - 2605 was - 60 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 10 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; I2601 - 2605 was 21.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 - 2605 was - 144.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 102 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Other Ratios**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.93, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.41, down 0.01; the rebar disk profit was - 87.38 yuan/ton, down 2.13 yuan; the coking disk profit was 99.94 yuan/ton, down 8.41 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Steel**: Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 106.55, up 1.35 [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3460 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the billet - to - product spread was 230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; Rizhao Port PB ore was 794 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. - **Others**: Qingdao Super Special Powder was 702 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; another type of ore was 743 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; Ganqimaodu coking coal was 1215 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1430 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port PB ore was 790 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. Trading Strategies - **Steel**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. For the disk arbitrage, consider narrowing the spread of the 01 contract coil - to - rebar spread around 180 and take profit. For basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider taking profit according to the spot exposure before the National Day [2][8]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Industrial customers should focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before the National Day, go long on dips and take profits at high prices [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: Continue the strategy of going long on dips [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The approaching traditional peak season for new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand, along with continuous destocking of lithium carbonate social inventory, support the futures price. However, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price. Also, there is a need to watch out for potential supply - side speculation in the market due to demand improvement and the reported environmental issues in Qinghai salt lakes [3]. 3. Summary by Category Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 859 yuan, up 44 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) price is 1,150 yuan, up 45 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1,880 yuan, up 65 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) price is 6,090 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) price is 7,215 yuan, up 90 yuan [1][2]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - Futures contracts such as lithium carbonate 2510, 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602 all showed price increases, with涨幅 ranging from 1.57% to 1.79% [1]. Positive Electrode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,630 yuan, up 10 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 147,050 yuan, up 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,000 yuan, up 150 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 124,650 yuan, up 200 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531 tons, a decrease of 981 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,456 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,495 tons, an increase of 1,216 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,580 tons, a decrease of 440 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,484 tons, an increase of 130 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,527 yuan, with a profit of - 3,096 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 78,845 yuan, with a profit of - 8,402 yuan [3]. Environmental Issue - Qinghai Chaidamu Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. was reported for illegally burying a large amount of industrial hazardous waste, and the national special rectification action for illegal dumping and disposal of solid waste has been launched [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products continuing to weaken. Macro factors are mixed, and fundamentals may dominate the trend. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. - Overseas, the new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus, the Fed cut interest rates, US retail sales grew, and the Eurozone's economic sentiment index increased [3]. - Domestically, due to factors such as slowing export growth, economic downward pressure has increased in August. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies, focusing on fiscal support, central bank interest rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influencing Factors and Main Logic**: This week, the commodity index showed a trend of rising and then falling, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products weakening. The first half of the week was stimulated by factors such as progress in China - US trade negotiations and rising Fed interest - rate cut expectations, while the second half was suppressed by the landing of interest - rate cut expectations and the rebound of the US dollar index [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: From September 14th to 15th, China and the US reached a basic framework consensus in Madrid. On September 18th, the Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. On September 16th, US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In August, due to factors like slowing export growth, economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, new incremental measures will be introduced, with the core being fiscal support, central bank interest - rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stabilize. The joint efforts of fiscal and monetary policies will focus on "stabilizing investment" and "promoting consumption" [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Macro factors are mixed. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, and the "restart of easing" will have an important impact on market liquidity [3]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, and the real retail sales after CPI adjustment increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month [3]. - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose, and the industrial output in July rebounded slightly [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In August, due to factors such as slowing export growth, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial production, investment, and consumption continued to decline, and economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%" [3]. - The cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turning positive is a positive signal, but the year - on - year decline in the transfer income of state - owned land use rights indicates that local land finance still faces certain pressure [3]. - Nine departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures from five aspects [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **开工率数据**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces are presented in the data, such as the operating rates of terephthalic acid, polyester, and weaving in the polyester industry chain, as well as the national and Tangshan blast furnace operating rates [33]. - **汽车销售数据**: The data shows the year - on - year growth rates of factory wholesale and retail sales, and specific sales data for September [42][45]. - **农产品价格数据**: The data includes the average wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables, pork, and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices [47].