Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic PP market showed a narrow - range consolidation. The slight increase in PP futures boosted the spot market. The factory prices of producers were mostly stable, the cost support of the goods changed little, and the overall market turnover improved slightly compared to the previous day [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of PP2509 was 7160, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trading volume was 219,303, and the open interest decreased by 17,048 [1] - Spreads: The basis of the 09 contract was - 90 (previous day: - 60), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was - 6 (unchanged from the previous day) [1] - Spot Prices: In North China, it was 7000 - 7120 yuan/ton (previous day: 6980 - 7140 yuan/ton); in East China, it was 7070 - 7170 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day); in South China, it was 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton (previous day: 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton) [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market was in narrow - range consolidation. The slight rise in PP futures had a certain boost to the spot market. Producers' prices were mostly stable, and traders priced according to their inventory and cost. Downstream buyers made low - price rigid - demand purchases, and the overall market turnover improved slightly [2] Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the Container Freight Index (European Line) fluctuated weakly. The main 2510 contract closed at 1,460.0 points, down 1.77%, with an increase of 32 lots in positions; the secondary main 2512 contract closed at 1,735.0 points, up 0.74%, with a decrease of 468 lots in positions; the 10 - 12 spread widened to -275 points. The near - month 2508 contract closed at 2,111.0 points, down 3.55% [8]. - In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping alliances have different pricing strategies in early August. Maersk aims to maximize the overall ship efficiency by adjusting the peak - season surcharge (PSS) and the spot price. It is necessary to observe whether ONE will further lower the FAK price and whether MSC will make dynamic adjustments [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the August and September capacities are slightly revised upwards. On the demand side, the cargo volume in early August is expected to remain resilient, and the inflection point of market cargo volume is likely to appear in mid - to - late August. In the monthly - level comparison, September is likely to see a double - decline in supply and demand, and the fundamentals are expected to be further pressured. For the main 2510 contract, the trading logic of the market fundamentals remains to short on rallies. The anti - involution policy currently has limited impact on the container shipping industry. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 10 contract and consider reducing positions and taking profits for the 10 - 12 reverse spread [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2508 closed at 2,111.0, down 3.55%, with a trading volume of 3,024 and an open interest of 5,926 (a decrease of 1,443); EC2510 closed at 1,460.0, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 41,659 and an open interest of 50,726 (an increase of 32); EC2512 closed at 1,735.0, up 0.74%, with a trading volume of 4,024 and an open interest of 8,131 (a decrease of 468) [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 2,316.56 points, down 3.5% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,284.01 points, down 1.4% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $2,090/TEU, up 0.5% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2,067/FEU, down 3.5% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different carriers have different prices for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in August. For example, Maersk's 33 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price is $2,860/FEU, and MSC's early - August price is $3,640/FEU [1][9]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.65, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.18 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - Weekly and monthly average weekly capacities of the China - Europe base route are provided. In August, the capacity is slightly revised upwards to 324,000 TEU/week, and in September, it is revised upwards to 321,000 TEU/week [4][10]. 3.3 Macro News - China and the US will continue to promote the scheduled extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures [6]. - Federal Reserve Governor Kugler will be absent from this week's interest - rate meeting due to personal reasons, and the number of voting members is temporarily reduced to 11 [6]. - Hamas officials and the Israeli Prime Minister have different statements regarding the cease - fire negotiations in Gaza [6]. - Iran's top military commander said that Iran does not trust any promises from the US or Israel and is fully prepared to deal with future aggression [7].

Group 1: Report's Core Information - The report is about the lithium carbonate market, with the title "Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range Fluctuations, Pay Attention to Macroeconomic Sentiment Switch" and the date of July 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market Data - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 70,840 yuan, down 2,280 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 744,160, down 261,235 from T - 1; the open interest was 300,620, down 77,852 from T - 1 [1] - For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,560 yuan, down 860 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 314,089, down 13,756 from T - 1; the open interest was 163,120, down 5,616 from T - 1 [1] Basis and Related Price Differences - The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,310 yuan, the basis of spot - 2511 was 2,590 yuan, and the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 280 yuan [1] - The price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,150 yuan, and the price difference between spot and CIF was 9,279 yuan [1] Raw Material and Lithium Salt Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777 dollars, down 28 dollars from T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan, down 30 yuan from T - 1 [1] - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan, down 750 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan, down 700 yuan from T - 1 [1] Other Related Product Prices - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,315 yuan, down 180 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 110,250 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,069 yuan/ton, down 668 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - From January to June this year, 23 provincial - level administrative regions in China released 1,121 energy - storage project lists, with a total installed capacity exceeding 198.145GW and an energy - storage capacity of 507.803GWh [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive outlook [3]

2025 年 7 月 30 日 燃料油：夜盘上浮，短期强势延续 低硫燃料油：持续走强，外盘现货高低硫价差 继续走阔 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨跌 | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2509 | 元/吨 | 2.917 | | 1.67% | 2.913 | 1.85% | | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2.921 | | 1.85% | 2.917 | 1.50% | | | | LU2509 | 元/晓 | 3.631 | | 2. 48% | 3.615 | 1.92% | | | | LU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,640 | | 1. 92% | 3.620 | 2.03% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 期货 | FU2509 | 手 | 591,50 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend judgments based on the fundamentals and market conditions of each commodity [2][9]. - Some commodities are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and policy expectations, showing trends of short - term shock, strength, or weakness [9][11][61]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost - end strengthened due to rising crude oil prices. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies. Supply decreased marginally with a 210,000 - ton restart and a 400,000 - ton device shutdown, and demand decreased marginally as a 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load [5][9]. - **PTA**: Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. Consider 9 - 1 month - spread positive arbitrage as the inventory accumulation in August weakens. The current PTA processing fee is at a relatively low level, and attention should be paid to the compression of the PTA processing fee position under high valuation [9][10]. - **MEG**: Conduct basis positive arbitrage and month - spread reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the supply pressure brought by non - mainstream warehouse receipts. The port inventory is falling, and the import volume is expected to increase in September. Some ethylene oxide devices may be converted to produce ethylene glycol [11]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the difference between the spot and futures prices and the month - spread showed certain changes. The inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of tire companies changed [12][13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short term. The prices of futures and spot markets decreased, and the basis and month - spread also changed. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly, and the short - term fundamentals are relatively neutral [16][17][18]. Asphalt - Asphalt is slightly stronger due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices. The trading volume and open interest of futures decreased, and the inventory of refineries and social warehouses decreased [19][32]. LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. The market price fluctuates, and the cost is supported by the rise in crude oil prices. However, the supply pressure will gradually increase in the third quarter, and the demand support is not strong [33][34]. PP - PP's spot price rose slightly, and the transaction improved. The futures price increased slightly, and the market was mainly in narrow - range adjustment. The downstream demand was mainly for on - demand procurement [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda should pay attention to the delivery pressure. It is currently in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increase power but strong cost support. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on the supply of caustic soda and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts on the market [40][41]. Pulp - Pulp is expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure is high, and the demand - side is weak. The price of the living paper market is in a flat consolidation, and attention should be paid to the shipment of paper enterprises and the recovery of downstream demand [44][47][49]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price decreased, and the production and sales of float glass factories weakened. The price of the spot market fluctuated, with some regions falling and some rising [50][51]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term. The futures price increased, and the spot price index decreased. The traditional downstream demand is weak, but the phased external procurement of olefins provides support. The mid - term is also expected to oscillate due to policy and supply factors [54][56]. Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short term as the commodity index rebounds. The futures price increased slightly, and the inventory of urea enterprises decreased. The mid - term is also expected to oscillate due to policy and potential export support [59][61]. Styrene - Styrene's profit is being compressed. It is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly used as a short - position allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation phase, and attention should be paid to the position of compressing styrene profit [62][63]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price decreased, and the price of the spot market was adjusted in an oscillatory manner. The production of enterprises was relatively stable, and the downstream demand was mainly for on - demand procurement at low prices [64]. PVC - PVC is still affected by anti - involution sentiment in the short term. The spot market transaction is light, and the price oscillates downward. The industry profit has expanded significantly, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate [67][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session price increased, and its short - term strength continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to strengthen, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to widen [71]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold 10 - contract short positions and consider reducing positions and taking profits for the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage. The futures price of the European line oscillated weakly, and the spot freight rate showed certain changes [73][80].

【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | ୧48୧ | 6458 | 28 | PF08-09 | -14 | -24 | 10 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6500 | 6482 | 18 | PF09-10 | -44 | -186 | 142 | | | 短纤2510 | 6544 | 6668 | -124 | PF甚差 | 105 | 128 | -23 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 250644 | 252120 | -1476 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 605 | 6.610 | -5 | | | 短纤成交量 | 133010 | 205378 | -72368 | 短纤产销率 | 54% | 48% | 6% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2508 瓶片2509 | 6012 6006 | 5996 6000 | 16 ୧ | PR08 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation is weak while the future expectation is strong, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,150 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton), and the price of the生猪2511 contract is 14,125 yuan/ton (down 125 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Market Logic - Currently in the consumption off - season, with limited downstream digestion ability. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, causing the spot price to drop rapidly. Market expectations of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated sales, resulting in the continued weakness of the spot market. Macro sentiment has strong support for far - end prices, forming a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectation [3]. 3.3 Futures Research - **Volume and Position Changes**: For the生猪2509 contract, the trading volume is 31,825 lots (down 32,110 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 54,807 lots (down 6,608 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2511 contract, the trading volume is 14,012 lots (down 10,435 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 48,619 lots (down 872 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2601 contract, the trading volume is 14,033 lots (down 14,264 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 42,803 lots (down 537 lots from the previous day) [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the生猪2509 contract is 150 yuan/ton, the basis of the生猪2511 contract is - 275 yuan/ton, the basis of the生猪2601 contract is - 30 yuan/ton. The spread between生猪9 - 11 is - 270 yuan/ton (down 225 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the spread between生猪11 - 1 is - 520 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the cotton market has cooled down, leading to a correction in Zhengzhou cotton futures. The ICE cotton futures also dropped nearly 1% due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the overall weakness of bulk agricultural products [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.07% and a night - session decline of 0.39%. CY2509 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.19% and a night - session decline of 0.25%. ICE cotton 12 was at 67.66 cents/pound with a decline of 0.94%. Trading volume and positions of some futures contracts decreased [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of most domestic cotton and cotton yarn spot products decreased. For example, the price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 15,232 yuan/ton, and the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton also dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 14,910 yuan/ton [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Forecast Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 9,156, and the effective forecast decreased by 2 to 348. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 91, and the effective forecast increased by 91 to 91 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of domestic cotton spot improved slightly. Some spinning mills that locked in the basis earlier carried out point - pricing. The sales basis of some cotton in South Xinjiang and North Xinjiang was relatively high [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand. Spinning mills maintained firm prices. The cotton fabric market was still sluggish, and the sales of grey cloth were worse than before as cotton prices declined [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures dropped nearly 1% due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the overall weakness of bulk agricultural products [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].

2025 年 7 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：原油及宏观情绪偏多，短期存在支撑 豆油：偏强震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,970 | 0.27% | 8,990 | 0.22% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,226 | 1.31% | 8,256 | 0.36% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,492 | 0.91% | 9,538 | 0.48% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,254 | 0.35% | 4,262 | 0.73% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 56.73 | 1.32% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 611,734 | 7357 | 432,271 | -17,684 | ...

2025 年 7 月 30 日 沥青：原油大涨，小幅偏强 【基本面跟踪】 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,644 | 1.19% | 3,665 | 0.58% | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,619 | 1.40% | 3,646 | 0.75% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2508 | 手 | 482 | (1,305) | 2,504 | (122) | | | BU2509 | 手 | 208,854 | (16,037) | 141,786 | (20,677) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82180 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变 ...