2025年09月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：铜矿不可抗力扰动，价格大涨 | 4 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：强于电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪金2510 | 856.04 | 0.48% | 853.06 | -0.65% | | | 黄金T+D | 856.27 | 0.79% | 848.12 | -0.60% | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is slightly stronger following crude oil, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [2][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2511, the yesterday's closing price was 3,392 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 3,415 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.68%. The trading volume was 152,942 lots, a decrease of 29,145 lots, and the open interest was 216,897 lots, a decrease of 14,925 lots. For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,337 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.51%, and the night - session closing price was 3,362 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.75%. The trading volume was 51,155 lots, a decrease of 4,666 lots, and the open interest was 90,322 lots, a decrease of 2,055 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 55,980 lots with no change [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was 0, a decrease of 10; the East China - South China spread was 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [3] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to 3,544 yuan/ton on the futures market and the warehouse spot equivalent to 3,671 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to 3,536 yuan/ton on the futures market and the warehouse spot equivalent to 3,584 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate was 47.22%, an increase of 4.63% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 26.74%, an increase of 0.50% [3] Market News - **Capacity Utilization**: From September 18 - 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. This was mainly due to the resumption of asphalt production by Xinjiang Tianzhize, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai, along with the stable production of Shandong Shengxing, Dongming Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical, despite intermittent shutdowns and production cuts at some refineries in East China [13] - **Shipment Volume**: From September 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 49.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.0%. Shandong saw the most significant increase due to increased supply and good downstream demand, while East China had the largest decrease because of intermittent production at major refineries and the preference for low - cost social inventory resources [13] - **Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization**: From September 17 - 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 18.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Precipitation affected construction in Shandong and Henan, leading to a decline in demand for modified asphalt and a reduction in production in these regions, along with insufficient demand in the South [13]

2025年09月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随原油小幅偏强 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：低位追空需谨慎，中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但预期不悲观 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：节前步入震荡格局 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | 丙烯：短期高位偏弱 | 24 | | PVC：宽幅震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：强势延续，价格重心持续反弹 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：被动上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短期波动放大 | 29 | | 短纤 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment [2][6]. - Copper prices have surged due to force majeure disturbances in copper mines [2][13]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][15]. - Lead prices are supported by decreasing inventories [2][19]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][21]. - Aluminum is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend, alumina will trade within a range, and cast aluminum alloy will outperform electrolytic aluminum [2][27]. - Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between short - term supply - demand and costs [2][30]. - The pre - holiday restocking of lithium carbonate is coming to an end, and the sideways trend will continue [2][37]. - For industrial silicon, the futures price is relatively resilient; for polysilicon, pay attention to market sentiment due to upstream sudden maintenance [2][40]. - Iron ore prices will have wide - range oscillations due to repeated expectations [2][43]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will have wide - range oscillations [2][45][46]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices will have wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][50]. - Coke and coking coal prices will have wide - range oscillations due to repeated expectations [2][53][54]. - Log prices will oscillate repeatedly [2][56]. - Para - xylene and PTA will have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term; MEG suggests a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE gold 2510 was 856.04 with a daily increase of 0.48%, and the night - session closing price was 853.06 with a decrease of 0.65%. The trend strength is 0 [7][10]. - **Silver**: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE silver 2510 was 10354 with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 10349.00 with a decrease of 0.52%. The trend strength is 1 [7][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 79,960 with a daily increase of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 82610 with an increase of 3.31%. Free Port announced that its Indonesian Grasberg mine encountered force majeure. The trend strength is 2 [12][14]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21860 with a daily increase of 0.07%. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1375 tons. The trend strength is 0 [15][16]. - **Lead**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17065 with a decrease of 0.12%. The SHFE lead futures inventory decreased by 3450 tons. The trend strength is 0 [19]. - **Tin**: The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 271,650 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price was 272,950 with an increase of 0.51%. The trend strength is 0 [22][26]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20705. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 63.70 million tons. The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [27][29]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 121,450, and that of stainless - steel main contract was 12,895. The trend strength of nickel and stainless - steel is 0 [30][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,880. The pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end. The trend strength is 0 [37][39]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The closing price of Si2511 was 9,020, and that of PS2511 was 51,380. The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [40][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,164, and that of HC2601 was 3,357. The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [46][49]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2511 was 5742, and that of manganese silicon 2511 was 5900. The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [51][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1224.5, and that of J2601 was 1730. The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0 [54]. - **Log**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 807.5. The trend strength is 0 [57][59]. - **Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA will have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term; MEG suggests a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a complex situation. The spot trading of domestic cotton is sluggish with low inventory and few offers, and the spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but farmers are hesitant. The domestic cotton - textile enterprise market has general spot trading, with cotton yarn prices fluctuating slightly and the sales of cotton - cloth weakening. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is awaiting the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% and a night - session closing price of 13,520 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. CY2511 closed at 19,860 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.02% and a night - session closing price of 19,765 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.48%. ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.14 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71%. The trading volume and positions of CF2601 decreased, while the positions of CY2511 increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,716, a decrease of 199 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 12. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts and effective forecasts were both 0 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,827 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day. The prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased. The 3128B index was 15,062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous day. The international cotton index (M:CNCottonM) was 74.21 cents/pound, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained unchanged, and the arrival price increased by 0.05% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of domestic cotton is cold, with low inventory and few offers. The spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but the actual trading volume at the lower price of 6.1 - 6.2 yuan/kg is small, and farmers are observing. The price for 2024/25 Dongjiang Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with less than 3.5 impurities is mostly CF01 + 900 - 1000, with a small number of lower quotes at 850 - 900 for inland warehouse self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The spot trading atmosphere of the pure - cotton yarn market is average. The price of pure - cotton yarn fluctuates slightly in the short term, and the market is waiting for the price guidance after the new cotton is listed. The sales of the cotton - cloth market are average, and the transactions are continuously weakening. The sales of medium - and low - count yarn cards are sustainable, while the prices of regular plain and twill fabrics are under pressure. The quoted price of cotton - cloth is stable, and the actual order price is negotiated according to the quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is paying attention to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China announced new national independent contributions at the United Nations Climate Change Summit, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas net emissions by 7 - 10% from the peak by 2035 and increase the total installed capacity of wind and solar power generation to 36 billion kilowatts [22][24]. - The glass market's short - term trend is likely to be strong due to policy anti - involution expectations and industry meetings [8]. - The short - term volatility of the Container Freight Index (Europe Line) may increase, and different trading strategies are proposed based on whether the price increase is implemented [11]. - Copper prices have risen significantly due to supply disruptions from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight [12][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to reach new highs, with a trend strength of 0; silver is in a shock adjustment phase, with a trend strength of 1 [17][25]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of gold and silver futures and spot markets are presented, along with relevant macro and industry news [22]. 3.2 Copper - Copper prices have risen sharply due to the Grasberg mine's force majeure event, and the supply of copper raw materials is expected to tighten, with a trend strength of 2 [12][29]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of copper futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [27]. 3.3 Zinc - Zinc prices show a slight rebound, with a trend strength of 0 [17][32]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of zinc futures and spot markets are presented, along with relevant news [30]. 3.4 Lead - Lead prices are supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0 [17][33]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of lead futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [33]. 3.5 Tin - Tin prices are in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0 [17][40]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of tin futures and spot markets are presented, along with relevant macro and industry news [36]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum shows a shock - upward trend, alumina is in a range - bound shock, and cast aluminum alloy is stronger than electrolytic aluminum, with trend strengths of 1, 0, and 1 respectively [17][43]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant news [41]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel prices are in a low - level shock due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations; stainless steel prices are in a shock operation due to the game between short - term supply - demand and cost, with trend strengths of 0 for both [17][50]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot markets are presented, along with macro and industry news [44]. 3.8 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium is in a shock trend as pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end, with a trend strength of 0 [17][53]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of carbonate lithium futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant news [51]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon shows resistance in the market, and polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment due to upstream sudden maintenance, with trend strengths of 0 and 1 respectively [17][56]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot markets are presented, along with macro and industry news [54]. 3.10 Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are in a wide - range shock due to repeated expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [17][57]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant news [57]. 3.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a wide - range shock, with trend strengths of 0 for both [17][63]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are presented, along with macro and industry news [60]. 3.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are in a wide - range shock due to sector sentiment resonance, with trend strengths of 0 for both [64][66]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant news [65]. 3.13 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices are in a wide - range shock due to repeated expectations, with trend strengths of 0 for both [17][68]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are presented, along with relevant news [68]. 3.14 Logs - Log prices are in a repeated shock, but no detailed data or analysis is provided in the report [70].

2025年09月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 25 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限 豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开 | 棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开 | 2 | | 豆粕：阿根廷出口政策可能变化，连粕反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：市场情绪好转，盘面反弹 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡偏强 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：等待双节印证 | 9 | | 生猪：高升水格局，等待节前备货印证 | 10 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,126 | 涨跌幅 0.80% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,190 | 涨跌幅 0.70% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：节前补库步入尾声，震荡走势延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：盘面表现较抗跌 | 6 | | 多晶硅：上游突发检修，关注市场情绪 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年09月25日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 25 日 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,450 | 720 | -340 | 6 ...

2025 年 9 月 25 日 集运指数（欧线）：短期波动放大 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,114.4 | 2.67% | 46,816 | 40,940 | -568 | 1.14 | | 0.69 | | | EC2512 | 1,696.5 | 4.56% | 26,219 | 22,606 | 488 | 1.16 | | 0.57 | | | EC2602 | 1,588.1 | 3.33% | 4,582 | 8,043 | 442 | 0.57 | | 0.33 | | | EC2510 - EC2512 | -582. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the price of double-offset paper may hit a new low and enter the era starting with "3", in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price of double-offset paper, and the consensus expectation may reverse [3][7][51]. - The current futures price of double - offset paper is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness". Downward trading has limited value, and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [4][53]. Summary by Directory 1.上市以来的行情回顾 - After listing, the futures price of double - offset paper has maintained an overall oscillating trend, with the fluctuation range generally concentrated between 4,100 - 4,300 yuan/ton. The current futures market has fully priced in the long - term oversupply expectation, but this long - term downward pressure has not been transmitted to the spot market. The quotes of mainstream brands are relatively firm, and the decline is relatively limited. The expected return from selling for delivery currently cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market [8][51]. 2. 空头的核心逻辑是什么？ 2.1 产能持续投放 - In the medium to long term, the industry's production capacity has been continuously increasing, leading to severe overcapacity. The overall industry production capacity is estimated to be in the range of 16 - 18 million tons. It is expected that 950,000 tons of cultural paper will be put into production in the second half of 2025, accounting for about 5% - 6% of the current production capacity, and 1.43 million tons in 2026. Additionally, a southern paper mill plans to put into production a double - offset paper production line with a capacity of 1.2 million tons from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027 [14]. 2.2 需求见顶下滑 - The consumption of double - offset paper is mainly affected by the "one textbook and one supplementary material" policy and the population cycle. From January to July 2025, the cumulative consumption of double - offset paper was 4.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. Grassroots research shows that the consumption of off - campus supplementary teaching materials has decreased by 30% - 50% in different provinces. The number of compulsory education students has declined, and this downward trend is expected to continue in 2025 [16]. 2.3 晨鸣复工影响 - Recently, Shouguang Chenming has accelerated its resumption of work and production. After the successful start - up of Factory 6, the Meilun Chemical Pulp Factory and the paper production lines of Factories 5 and 9 have also been successfully put into operation. Factory 6 has a production capacity of about 160,000 tons, Factory 5 about 500,000 tons, Factory 9 about 400,000 tons, and the pulp line about 1.2 million tons. Other paper production lines will also be gradually started, increasing the overall industry supply pressure [18]. 2.4 成本和价格的负反馈 - The cost of double - offset paper includes raw materials (wood pulp) and papermaking costs, which are greatly affected by factors such as formula, wood pulp price, and integration level. As paper prices decline, paper mills have adjusted their formulas to reduce costs. The mainstream cost - reduction paths include reducing the proportion of commercial pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp, as well as reducing the proportion of softwood pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp. The estimated cash cost of mainstream natural - white double - offset paper is in the range of 3,600 - 4,200 yuan/ton. If a company has a high degree of integration, it can still make a profit [21][22]. 3. 是否存在尚未交易的潜在利多？ 3.1 教辅教材需求的边际改善 - The consumption of double - offset paper used for supplementary teaching materials has obvious seasonal characteristics. September to November is the peak season for tendering of supplementary teaching materials. Usually, the consumption of double - offset paper shows a seasonal month - on - month improvement during this period, and prices tend to have a phased rebound around the National Day. In 2024, the price did not rebound significantly due to the impact of policies and population. Since September 2025, the weekly sales volume of double - offset paper has increased from 157,000 tons to 167,000 tons, showing an obvious month - on - month improvement [25][28]. 3.2 浆价提涨带动预期有所改变 - In the short term, the price of imported hardwood pulp has been continuously rising, and the downward space for softwood pulp prices is limited, which has changed the bearish sentiment in the downstream market. The current pulp price is close to the full cost of Suzano's pulp. South American pulp companies led by Suzano have a strong willingness to raise prices and have started to actively cut production to support prices. Since the second quarter of 2025, many pulp mills have shut down or plan to shut down in the future due to economic reasons, and the shutdown capacity of commercial pulp has increased rapidly. The inventory days of softwood pulp in pulp mills are at a historical high, while the inventory days of hardwood pulp are relatively low, with certain price - increasing ability. Recently, as the price of hardwood pulp has rebounded from the bottom, the profit of paper mills has further declined, which has changed the expectations of some practitioners and weakened the bearish sentiment, thus boosting demand to some extent [31][36][40]. 3.3 交割利润修复 - In the short term, the 2601 contract is still far from the delivery date. It is believed that the paper price is unlikely to continue to decline in the short term, and the futures - spot convergence may be achieved by the futures price moving closer to the spot price. Based on the current delivery cost calculation, the current futures price is significantly undervalued. As the delivery date approaches, the repair of delivery profit may drive the futures price to rebound [42][43]. 3.4 长期变量中仍有利多 - There is still room for improvement in per - capita consumption. China's per - capita consumption of double - offset paper is about two - thirds of that in Japan. The decline in double - offset paper consumption cannot be linearly extrapolated, and the degree of overcapacity may be overestimated. Supplementary teaching materials are only one of the end - products of double - offset paper, and the decline in their consumption does not represent weak demand for social books. As of 2023, the overall print volume of social books has still been increasing. As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the added value of China's printing and recording media reproduction industry above the designated size was +1.3%. Double - offset paper machines can be used to produce other paper types, which may lead to an overestimation of the effective production capacity of double - offset paper and an underestimation of the overall capacity utilization rate [44][47][49]. 4. 总结和策略展望 - Although the price of double - offset paper may hit a new low, in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price. The short - term marginal improvement of short - term variables may drive the futures price to have a phased rebound before a significant decline. The current futures price is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness", and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [53].