Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The probability of concentrated pressure release in the spot market before the double festivals increases, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts face a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium. The 11 - month contract's position reaches a new high, and the market game enters an accelerated stage. The price center of the March and May contracts may decline, and the spread structure of the July contract maintains a reverse spread. The short - term support level of the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Price**: The prices of Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot are 12,930 yuan/ton, 12,450 yuan/ton, and 13,460 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of futures contracts such as生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 12,825 yuan/ton, 13,350 yuan/ton, and 12,840 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 38,008 lots, 18,413 lots, and 5,682 lots respectively, with changes of - 19,098 lots, - 6,891 lots, and - 4,080 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 96,751 lots, 66,786 lots, and 44,955 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,238 lots, 120 lots, and 1,963 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Spread**: The basis of生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 105 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and 90 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of生猪11 - 1 and生猪1 - 3 are - 525 yuan/ton and 510 yuan/ton respectively [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] 3. Market Logic - Group significantly reduces supply, but the weight increases again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakens, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September increases significantly. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate from September to October. The near - month contracts face high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium. The purchase sentiment of piglets declines, and the price drops accelerate, corresponding to a decline in the cost of slaughter in March - May [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2) Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of the corn market, including price data, trading volume, and positions, as well as macro and industry news [1][2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Spot Prices**: Northeast acquisition average price is not available, Jinzhou closing price is 2,280 yuan/ton, Guangdong Shekou is 2,420 yuan/ton, and Shandong corn starch price is 2,770 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Prices**: C2601 closed at 2,158 yuan/ton with a daily change of -0.19%, and C2511 closed at 2,168 yuan/ton with a daily change of -0.09% [1] - **Trading Volume and Positions**: C2511 trading volume decreased by 91,952 hands to 304,896 hands, and its position decreased by 1,301 hands to 811,835 hands; C2601 trading volume decreased by 39,084 hands to 111,954 hands, and its position increased by 4,448 hands to 449,458 hands [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total corn market warehouse receipts decreased by 240 hands to 30,658 hands [1] - **Spreads**: The main 11 - basis is 112 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 01 inter - period spread is 10 yuan/ton [1] [Macro and Industry News] - **Northern Corn Port Prices**: 2,240 - 2,250 yuan/ton for moisture 14.5%, 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton for containerized new grain [2] - **Guangdong Shekou Prices**: 2,400 - 2,420 yuan/ton for bulk carriers, 2,440 - 2,460 yuan/ton for containers; end - of - month first - class containerized corn pre - sale is 2,430 yuan/ton, expected to drop to 2,370 yuan/ton after mid - October [2] - **Northeast Deep - processing Acquisition Prices**: Starting to decline, with Heilongjiang at 2,110 - 2,240 yuan/ton, Jilin at 2,160 - 2,260 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia at 2,160 - 2,270 yuan/ton [2] - **North China Corn Prices**: Rebounding, with Shandong deep - processing at 2,280 - 2,420 yuan/ton, feed corn at 2,390 - 2,440 yuan/ton, and suckling pig feed corn at 2,470 yuan/ton; Henan at 2,290 - 2,420 yuan/ton, and Hebei at 2,260 - 2,400 yuan/ton [2] - **Imported Grains**: Argentine sorghum (bulk) for October - November shipment is 2,120 yuan/ton, Australian sorghum for October shipment is 2,400 yuan/ton, imported barley pre - sale for December - January shipment is 2,000 - 2,050 yuan/ton, and feed wheat for September delivery is 2,510 - 2,530 yuan/ton [2] [Trend Intensity] - The corn trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

2025 年 09 月 22 日 短纤：震荡偏弱 瓶片：震荡偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2510 | 6294 | 6350 | -56 | PF10-11 | 10 | 6 | ব | | PF | 短纤2511 | 6284 | 6344 | -60 | PF11-12 | 26 | -34 | 60 | | | 短纤2512 | 6258 | 6378 | -120 | PF基差 | 141 | 121 | 20 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 164492 | 201783 | -37291 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.425 | 6.465 | -40 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 172520 昨日 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of methanol is rated as 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol price is expected to be in a state of oscillatory pressure, but the downside space is gradually narrowing. The upside pressure mainly comes from the supply - side of the fundamentals, while the downside support comes from the expectation of improved fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy [4][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,356 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume was 756,698 lots, an increase of 161,276 lots; the open interest was 928,408 lots, a decrease of 14,496 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,892 tons, a decrease of 315 tons; the trading volume was 1.782594 billion yuan, an increase of 380.062 million yuan. The basis was - 108, down 9 from the previous day, and the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) was - 20, up 19 from the previous day [2]. - In the spot market, the Jiangsu ex - tank price was 0 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan from the previous day; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Market Analysis - As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.78 million tons, an increase of 0.75 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. The inventory in East China decreased, while that in South China continued to increase [4]. - The short - term main contract shows an oscillatory pressure pattern. The upside pressure comes from the high import volume and high daily output in the supply - side of the fundamentals, which leads to an increase in inventory. The downside support comes from the expectation of improved fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy. Before the next Fed meeting in October and the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, the impact of the macro - end on the commodity market is relatively limited [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamental outlook for industrial silicon has improved, while the short - term market sentiment for polysilicon has cooled down [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 9,305 yuan/ton, with a volume of 510,306 lots and an open interest of 311,097 lots. PS2511 closing price is 52,700 yuan/ton, with a volume of 329,612 lots and an open interest of 115,849 lots [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon spot premiums or discounts vary when benchmarked against different products. For example, the premium against East China Si5530 is +445 yuan/ton. Polysilicon spot premium against N - type re - feed is - 1105 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9850 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 52600 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon plant profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) are - 2366 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) are - 3311 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits are - 14.1 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.8 million tons. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 21.9 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 290 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1725 yuan/ton, and Ningxia washed coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price - The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.68 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.305 yuan/watt, and components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.682 yuan/watt [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon Price and Profit - The price of DMC is 10800 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 1123 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.9 Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - The price of ADC12 is 20950 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 170 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia is actively stabilizing the revenue level of new energy projects, promoting the high - quality development of new energy. In 2025, Hohhot plans to implement 107 key projects in the new energy industrial cluster with an investment of 96.9 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current caustic soda market has low upward momentum due to the pressure on Shandong spot goods, lack of improvement in exports, and no start of alumina stocking before production. However, the optimistic expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term, so the market may show wide - range fluctuations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 01 - contract futures price is 2641, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2438, and the basis is - 204 [3]. - Since September 21, the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 10 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Market Condition Analysis - The caustic soda spot in Shandong is under pressure. The price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak due to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia caused by new capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea. The high production and inventory of alumina have compressed profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future [4]. - Although there is a stocking demand of 5.6 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit situation may lead to a decline in the stocking level of other alumina plants. Before stocking starts, it is difficult for the market to achieve resonance between the spot and futures markets [4]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [5].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 22 日 尿素：趋势承压 | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,661 | 1,670 | - 9 -1365 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,666 | 1,671 | - 5 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 112,725 | 114,090 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 297,254 | 286,823 | 10431 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,810 | 8,188 | -378 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 375,627 | 381,295 | -5668 | | | | 山东地区基差 | | -21 | -30 | 9 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -151 | -151 | 0 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is under short - term shock pressure with a neutral - downward driver, but the downside space is narrowing from a valuation perspective. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber face increased pressure mainly due to high supply. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The inventory pressure of cis - butadiene rubber is rising, and the high processing profit on the cis - butadiene rubber futures is unsustainable. Butadiene is also expected to face high - supply pressure, which will put pressure on the cost side of cis - butadiene rubber. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut signal is neutral, and the macro - end has limited impact on the commodity market before the next Fed meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session. The downside space of the futures price is narrowing as the fundamentals are partially reflected in the valuation, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the price is approaching the static cost line [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber 10 - contract increased by 30 yuan/ton to 11,445 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 21,553 lots to 94,561 lots, the open interest increased by 756 lots to 75,259 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 122,814 ten - thousand yuan to 542,409 ten - thousand yuan. The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber to the futures main contract decreased by 30 to 205, and the monthly spread (BR10 - BR11) increased by 15 to 70 [1] - In the spot market, the prices of cis - butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber of models 1502 and 1712 also remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively [1] - In terms of fundamentals, the cis - butadiene rubber operating rate, theoretical full cost, and profit remained unchanged [1] Industry News - As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%. The downstream continued to purchase at low prices, and the spot negotiation center was under pressure. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased slightly [2] - As of September 17, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 22,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous period. Some imported cargoes have not been put into storage, and the short - term inventory continues to decline with limited tradable volume. However, there are still expectations of cargo arrivals, and the import volume in September is expected to be sufficient [2][3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 22 日 LPG：短期窄幅震荡 丙烯：短期高位偏弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2510 | 4,425 | -0.78% | 4,383 | -0.95% | | 期货价格 | PG2511 | 4,360 | -0.57% | 4,320 | -0.92% | | | PL2601 | 6,388 | -0.56% | 6,393 | 0.08% | | | PL2602 | 6,434 | -0.46% | 6,424 | -0.16% | | 持 仓&成 交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2510 | 26,838 | -15542 | 22,118 | -8667 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, and concludes that iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range oscillations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate around the cost line with wide - range oscillations; logs are in repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of iron ore contract 12601 is 807.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94% from the previous day, with a position of 574,521 hands, an increase of 40,992 hands. The prices of imported and domestic iron ore in the spot market generally rose slightly. The basis for contract 12601 against Super Special ore increased by 2.4 yuan to 134.3 yuan [4]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of rebar contract RB2601 is 3,172 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 0.73%, with a trading volume of 1,250,591 hands and a position of 1,970,510 hands, a decrease of 29,174 hands. The futures price of hot - rolled coil contract HC2601 is 3,374 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.18%, with a trading volume of 459,672 hands and a position of 1,413,153 hands, an increase of 829 hands. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions showed different degrees of increase or decrease [7]. - **News**: On September 18, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that in terms of production, rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.35 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 1.78 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.67 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 5.13 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar demand increased by 11.96 tons, hot - rolled coil demand decreased by 4.34 tons, and the total demand of five major varieties increased by 7 tons. In August 2025, the national crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of ferrosilicon contract 2511 is 5,736 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the futures price of contract 2601 is 5,736 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The futures price of silicomanganese contract 2511 is 5,930 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the futures price of contract 2601 is 5,964 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia are 5,350 yuan/ton and 5,730 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **News**: On September 19, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions changed, and the prices of silicon - manganese 6517 in the north and south were reported. As of September 19, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 241,500 tons [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of coking coal contract JM2601 is 1,232 yuan/ton, up 28.5 yuan or 2.4%, with a trading volume of 1,078,119 hands and a position of 723,291 hands, a decrease of 1,081 hands. The futures price of coke contract J2601 is 1,738.5 yuan/ton, up 29.5 yuan or 1.7%, with a trading volume of 23,627 hands and a position of 45,788 hands, a decrease of 644 hands. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained stable, while some changed slightly [15]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 802 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day and 0.1% week - on - week; the trading volume is 5,117 hands, a decrease of 18.9% from the previous day and 43% week - on - week; the position is 13,421 hands, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous day and 15% week - on - week. The prices of different types of logs in the spot market in Shandong and Jiangsu remained mostly stable [18]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].