1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, production cuts were made, but the overall supply - side reduction was weak due to the winter maintenance off - season. They will face significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [155]. - Although domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in a loss situation, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. Low - profit production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive rapid profit repair, but it is not sustainable for more than 3 months [155]. - On the demand side, caustic soda is affected by the negative feedback from low alumina profits, while PVC faces the weak real estate demand pattern [155]. - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, with an annual volatility of over 30% in recent years, and its forward futures price between 2150 - 2300 has long - allocation value. PVC has large profit losses, but the forward premium restricts the market from trading low - valuation factors [155]. - Overall, in 2026, caustic soda and PVC will mainly show a wide - range volatile market. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited. But it is also difficult to rise continuously before the fundamental situation improves substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [155]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Spread - Short - term caustic soda may be weak. The 03 basis and the 3 - 5 month spread are weakening [13]. - The export market has support but is also undergoing structural adjustment. In 2025, the cumulative export volume from January to November was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The Northeast Asian FOB price has declined to about $350 per dry ton, and the Southeast Asian CIF price is $400 per dry ton, a decrease of $20 per dry ton compared to December 23 [17][20]. - The Shandong - Guangdong regional arbitrage space and the flake - liquid caustic soda spread are acceptable. The flake - liquid caustic soda spread is rising, which is beneficial for caustic soda, while the 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is falling, which is negative for caustic soda [27][30]. 3.1.2 Supply - The market structure shows rising production and inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 495,200 tons (wet ton), a week - on - week increase of 1.96% and a year - on - year increase of 76.03% [38][40]. - There are few caustic soda maintenance plans in January 2026. In 2026, caustic soda will continue to see new production, with a capacity growth rate of over 3%, and the planned and under - construction production capacity to be put into operation totals 2.94 million tons [44][46]. - In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost support for caustic soda was weak. Liquid chlorine did not provide significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda was limited [47][51]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the alumina production capacity expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new production in the first half of the year is relatively concentrated, and the annual new capacity may reach 13.9 million tons. However, the alumina industry is currently operating at a high level with rising inventory and losses, and there is an expectation of production cuts in the future [73][75]. - The paper pulp industry is in a demand off - season, with continuous compression of terminal profits, but new pulp production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The finished paper industry has stable operation. The viscose staple fiber industry has rising operation, while the printing and dyeing industry has declining operation. The water treatment industry and the ternary precursor industry have declining production [88][94]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Spread - PVC may be weak in the short term. The main contract basis is oscillating and strengthening [113]. - Short - term PVC may be weak. The main contract basis is oscillating and strengthening. The short - term PVC market may face pressure due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand. The strengthening of the main contract basis may reflect the current market's short - term supply - demand relationship [113]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - PVC production enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%. There are fewer PVC maintenance plans in January 2026. In 2026, except for Jiahua's capacity release, there is no new capacity [120][123]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants has rebounded. PVC production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and social inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The real estate terminal demand has not shown obvious improvement, the overall downstream PVC operation has decreased month - on - month, and the PVC export expectation has weakened. Since April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for PVC and other products has been cancelled, which will increase the competition pressure in the future [127][131][146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - Implied volatility is positively correlated and rising. It is advisable to consider a bull spread strategy with caution and take a long position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Option Market Transaction Overview - The daily average total trading volume of options reached 9.5451 million lots, with a total turnover of 12.5736002 billion yuan. For specific options: - Shanghai 50 Index Option: Call trading volume was 41,200 lots, Put trading volume was 17,700 lots, and total turnover was 288.733 million yuan [2] - CSI 1000 Index Option: Call trading volume was 221,300 lots, Put trading volume was 158,100 lots, and total turnover was 4.8323127 billion yuan [2] - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Option: Call trading volume was 114,200 lots, Put trading volume was 57,500 lots, and total turnover was 1.1351234 billion yuan [2] - Other ETF options also had corresponding trading volumes and turnovers [2] 3.2 Option Volatility Statistics - For near - month options, the ATM - IV, IV weekly change, 20HV, HV weekly change, Skew, Skew weekly change, VIX, and VIX change of various options were presented. For example: - Shanghai 50 Index Option: ATM - IV was 14.71%, IV weekly change was 1.83%, 20HV was 12.63%, HV weekly change was 4.01% [4] - CSI 1000 Index Option: ATM - IV was 24.13%, IV weekly change was 5.29%, 20HV was 16.18%, HV weekly change was 1.92% [4] 3.3 Option Liquidity - Various charts showed the changes in total trading volume, total open interest, total turnover, total trading market value, and total open - interest market value of financial options, as well as the trading volume and open - interest proportions of each option variety [5][6][7][8][9] 3.4 Option Volatility Level - Comparing the at - the - money implied volatility (ATM - IV) and historical volatility of options, last week, the ATM - IV and historical volatility of most options showed signs of divergence or convergence. The current ATM - IV and the positive correlation between the ATM - IV and the underlying asset price were also presented. For example: - Shanghai 50 Index Option: The current ATM - IV was 14.71%, and the correlation coefficient between the underlying asset and the ATM - IV was 95.75% [10] - CSI 1000 Index Option: The current ATM - IV was 24.13%, and the correlation coefficient was 96.30% [12] 3.5 Option Market Bull - Bear Sentiment - The Put - Call - Ratio (PCR) indicator of options can reflect the market's bull - bear sentiment to some extent. The report presented the PCR trends and daily - on - daily incremental percentages of various options [39][40][41][42][43][44][46] 3.6 Market Support and Resistance Level Information - The trading volume and open interest at different strike prices of options can help reveal the support and resistance levels of the underlying asset. For example: - Shanghai 50 Index: Key support level was 3000, and resistance level was 3150 [46] - CSI 1000 Index: Key support level was 7700, and resistance level was 8000 [46] - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index: Key support level was 4650, and resistance level was 4750 [46] - Other underlying assets also had corresponding support and resistance levels [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New Year commodity options have collectively seen an increase in volatility and trading volume. Some varieties in the chemical sector are about to expire, such as short - fiber, methanol, soda ash, glass, bottle chips, caustic soda, propylene, PTA, and sugar 03 series option contracts will expire on Tuesday, while crude oil near - month option contracts will expire on Wednesday. Most implied volatilities are at high levels, and attention should be paid to the risk of rapid time - value erosion [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the commodity option market this week was 9,363,712.6, up 2.45% from last week; the open interest was 8,928,161, up 0.16% from last week. Among them, the trading volume of agricultural products, energy and chemicals, and black products increased, while the trading volume of precious metals decreased, and the trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy products increased significantly [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the flat - volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile data of various commodity options, such as the flat - volatility of corn options being 11.83% and the 60 - day quantile being 93.33% [15]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.61 Various Commodity Options - For each type of commodity option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the report details the closing prices, price changes, remaining trading days, trading volumes (including call, put, and total), trading volume PCR, open interests (including call, put, and total), open interest PCR, flat - volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main and secondary contracts and all contracts [16][17][18]...[76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (01.05 - 01.09), the US soybean futures prices showed a mixed trend with a slight upward shift in the center. The continuous procurement of US soybeans by China had a moderately positive impact. The domestic soybean meal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the soybean No.1 futures prices rose [2]. - Next week (01.12 - 01.16), the price fluctuations of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures are expected to mainly depend on the USDA report. For soybean meal, if the report is bullish, the price is expected to rise; if it is neutral, the price is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level. For soybean No.1, the previous market sentiment was strong, and the futures price reached a new high. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the USDA report and domestic reserve sales [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price Performance - **US Soybean Futures**: In the week of January 9, the main March contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.6%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 2.67% [2]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 Futures**: In the week of January 9, the main m2605 contract of domestic soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.35%, and the main a2605 contract of soybean No.1 had a weekly increase of 3.23% [2]. Domestic Spot Market Conditions - **Soybean Meal Spot**: From 01.04 - 01.09, the domestic soybean meal spot price slightly increased. The trading volume increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts. The提货 volume decreased week - on - week. The basis slightly decreased week - on - week. The inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume slightly increased week - on - week and is expected to rise next week [3][5]. - **Soybean No.1 Spot**: From 01.04 - 01.09, the domestic soybean No.1 spot price was moderately strong. The prices in some Northeast and sales areas increased, while those in some inland areas remained flat. Farmers in the Northeast production area were reluctant to sell, and the market was waiting for the reserve auction. The price increase in the sales area was limited, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking [6]. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **China's Procurement of US Soybeans**: From January 5 - 9, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China were about 66.6 tons (for 2025/26 delivery), which had a moderately positive impact [2]. - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: In the week of January 1, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week, with a 9% week - on - week and about 23% year - on - year decrease in the export shipment of 2025/26 US soybeans, and about a 45% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative export shipment. The total weekly net sales decreased from about 124.6 tons to about 88 tons, which had a moderately negative impact [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of January 9, the average import cost of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, with a week - on - week increase in the average CNF premium and the average crushing profit on the futures market, which had a neutral impact [2]. - **Weather Forecast in South American Soybean Producing Areas**: In the next two weeks (January 10 - 22), the precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas varied, and the temperature in the Argentine soybean - producing areas was first low and then returned to normal. Overall, the impact of weather issues in the producing areas was not significant, but continuous attention was needed [2].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on overseas equity (Hong Kong and US stocks) by Guotai Junan Futures, dated January 11, 2026 [1][2] 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - For US stocks, maintain an optimistic outlook, continue with the technology + cyclical allocation strategy, and expect a more balanced market style in 2026 with a "shrinking circle" structure in the technology sector [3] - For Chinese stocks, in the short term, A-shares have better profit - making effects than Hong Kong stocks, and attention should be paid to the subsequent catch - up opportunities in Hong Kong stocks. In the medium term, Hong Kong stocks maintain a barbell strategy [4][7] 3. Summary by Sections US Stocks - **Market Performance and Outlook**: This week, cyclical sectors led the rise in US stocks, and the technology sector continued its "shrinking circle" structure. Next week, the US stock market will face earnings season and inflation data. The outlook remains optimistic, and the technology + cyclical allocation strategy continues [3] - **2026 Allocation Ideas**: The market style will be more balanced, and the K - shaped divergence between technology and non - technology, large - cap and small - cap stocks is expected to converge. Focus on AI technology, healthcare, utilities, finance, materials, and consumer sectors. Prioritize upstream infrastructure in AI technology over downstream software, and pay attention to theme investment opportunities in physical AI [3] - **Valuation**: US stock valuations are still relatively high overall [14] - **AI Bubble**: It is a local rather than a systematic bubble. The market is punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. Currently, it may be close to the 1997 position from the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC. Monitor the "ROIC - WACC" convergence trend and the divergence between "financing growth" and "profit growth" [20][22] Chinese Stocks - **Market Performance and Outlook**: This week, A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks. A - shares' performance was strong in some sectors with high performance certainty and theme - concept sectors. Southbound funds' entry momentum increased, and the pattern may be A - shares leading and Hong Kong stocks catching up. February is the month with the highest winning rate for A - shares historically [4][6][7] - **Short - term Allocation**: Defensively allocate sectors with high performance certainty (AI hardware, new energy leaders, and non - ferrous metals), and offensively allocate valuation - driven sectors (Hang Seng Technology, Hong Kong innovative drugs, commercial aerospace, and robotics) [7] - **Medium - term Allocation for Hong Kong Stocks**: Adopt a barbell strategy, focusing on technology assets with clear industrial trends supported by policies, some new energy sectors with supply - side clearance and demand - side improvement, and non - ferrous sectors benefiting from supply shortages, strong structural demand, and interest rate cuts [7] Odds Analysis - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The forward PE of the Hang Seng Index is 11.8 times, approaching the mean + 1STD since 2015. The forward PE of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 21.4 times, approaching the mean of the past 5 years. The Hang Seng Index ERP is 4.9%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index ERP is 1.1% [9][10]

强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪；白银：高弹性下高位震荡 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪；白银：高位回落，资金止盈离场 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 3 价格区间：975-1050元/克、16500-19500元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures ◆ 本周伦敦金回升3.24%，伦敦银回升5.29%。金银比从前周的58回落至57，10年期TIPS回升至1.9%，10年期名义利率回落至4.18%（2年期 3.54%），美元指数录得99.13。 ◆ 近期地缘政治风险不断抬升，我们此前周报提及，委内瑞拉事件冲击市场，对贵金属来说委内瑞拉战况可能刺激避险情绪，利好黄金。更深层 次影响方面，委内瑞拉毫无反抗之力为整个南美都带来了威胁。在 ...

BZ&Eb周报：BZ处于区间上沿，关注逢 高空的机会 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：原油地缘风险高开之后，关注逢高空的机会 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山东 地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在48万吨左右的高进口，2月之后的进口 仍然在45万吨左右。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰、华鲁恒升、旭阳沧州等。12月关注恒逸 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the inventory has decreased. In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether downstream sectors will cut production. The fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand, with limited upward space for the futures price. However, short - term sentiment - driven speculation and the preference of funds for low - value varieties may limit the downward space. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound to 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton to place short orders and set a stop - profit at 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton [7]. - For polysilicon, the futures price has fallen and adjusted. Attention should be paid to the production cuts of silicon material enterprises. The current supply - demand situation shows weak supply and strong demand. The bottom of the futures price has support, and it is expected not to fall below the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. However, since late December, the daily open interest has been decreasing, and market liquidity has been continuously lost, so it is not recommended to participate in futures trading. The recommended trading strategy is to place short orders for industrial silicon at high prices, with the expected futures price range for industrial silicon next week being 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton and for polysilicon being 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. There is no recommendation for cross - period trading, and it is recommended that upstream industrial silicon plants conduct short - hedging [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price has fallen from a high, with the Friday closing price at 8715 yuan/ton, partly due to the decline in polysilicon futures and the market's anticipation of downstream production cuts. The spot price has remained stable, with the SMM - reported price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon at 8700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period) and Inner Mongolia 99 - grade silicon at 8950 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period) [1]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen and adjusted, with the pre - holiday closing price at 57,920 yuan/ton. In the spot market, upstream prices are firm, downstream purchases are based on rigid needs, and there have been cases of high - price contract signings [1]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Production: The weekly industry inventory has decreased slightly. In Xinjiang, the number of operating plants has decreased, and in the southwest, the operating rate has remained unchanged, with the overall weekly output decreasing slightly. In the southwest, due to the dry season, the cost in the dry season is estimated to be 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), and the local operating rate has dropped to a very low level. Some plants in Xinjiang are in a heat - preservation state, resulting in a short - term marginal reduction in supply [2]. - Inventory: The SMM statistics show that the social inventory has decreased by 0.5 million tons this week, the factory inventory has increased by 0.09 million tons, and the overall industry inventory has decreased by 0.41 million tons. Future attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [2]. 3. Industrial Silicon Demand Side - Polysilicon: In the short term, the weekly production schedule of silicon materials has been reduced. Market news indicates that a large silicon material factory in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down completely from February to May to relieve inventory pressure. If implemented, it will lead to a marginal decrease in the demand for industrial silicon [3]. - Organic silicon: The weekly output of organic silicon has decreased this week. It is reported that the organic silicon industry also plans further production cuts to support prices. Considering the current off - season demand and high organic silicon inventory, the price - support logic is not yet smooth. However, since the export tax rebate for organic silicon will be cancelled after April 1st and exports account for 20 - 25% of domestic production, the pre - emptive export rush may bring some consumption increments. Attention should be paid to price transmission [3]. - Aluminum alloy: Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers have made reasonable stockpiles in the industrial silicon market, with high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and a strong wait - and - see attitude at other times [3]. - Export market: Overseas demand has not improved [3]. 4. Polysilicon Supply Side - Production: The short - term weekly output has decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, it is expected that silicon material manufacturers will start passive production cuts to relieve high inventory pressure [4]. - Inventory: The SMM statistics show that the inventory of silicon material manufacturers has decreased month - on - month this week. After the market sentiment adjustment, downstream purchases are relatively cautious. Currently, the manufacturer's inventory is still around 3 million tons, and the industry inventory, including downstream raw material inventory, is about 5 million tons, approaching 5 - 6 months of consumption [4]. - Cost: Based on the current raw material prices, assuming no consideration of the increased costs due to production - cut depreciation sharing and state reserves, the overall average full cost may be in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton [4]. 5. Polysilicon Demand Side - Silicon wafer: In January, the silicon wafer inventory is relatively reasonable, and the price increase of silicon wafers has been transmitted downstream, supporting silicon wafer enterprises to increase production schedules. Therefore, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased month - on - month [6]. - Terminal demand: In the first quarter, due to factors such as the cancellation of the component export tax rebate starting from April, the component industry will face a peak season for pre - emptive exports, which is expected to boost terminal demand. Future attention should be paid to the price increase of components [6].

2026年1月11日 博弈。 镍铁抬升震荡重心。 盘面博弈印度 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对線与不锈钢的关注度提高,本质在于消息面的变化,主要包括:印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钻，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采银矿罚款，具体来看: 1 公安期货研 行情观点: 沪镍:产业与二级市场资金对垒,银价宽幅震荡运行、'银的现实基本面确实偏弱,过剩压力与低成本 的湿法投产预期共振,盘面多次增仓试探性地找寻供需再平衡的估值位置,但是二级市场对商品的关注度 明显提高,商品资金流动性充足,印尼消息面的犹动给予了资金轮动的补涨情绪。在产业角度,认为印尼 政策在往年多次的灵活调整,以及一季度配额过渡期的现实,对配额政策仍保有观望情绪,同时,基本面 角度,利润修复增加供应端复产、进口利润回到正区间,以及盘面较镍铁溢价丰厚,套保和套利资金对線 价的弹性形成了约束。在二级市场角度,以长线逢低多的路径思考,更加关注低价矿吸引冶炼投资的"红 利"周期结束,政策在未来或出现周期性转变,同时,印尼多项政策的组合拳共振,进一步明确了印尼希 望挺价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The raw materials are stronger than the finished products, and the steel mill profits continue to be compressed. The iron ore pricing is detached from supply - demand, with strong macro - support. The coal - coke supply - demand is subtly repaired, but contradictions are still accumulating. The ferroalloy market is affected by long - short sentiment, and the futures trading may return to the fundamentals [8][77][136][228]. - The macro - environment is generally favorable. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti - involution", and the special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations [10][13]. - For iron ore, although the overseas supply is marginally weakening and the domestic demand is rebounding, the pricing is mainly affected by the upward macro - risk preference, and the ore price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [79]. - For coal - coke, due to event - driven and valuation repair, the supply - demand structure has subtle changes, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating [139]. - For ferroalloys, the alloy prices first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Supply - demand and profit**: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is loose, but the cost supports the futures price rebound. The strong raw materials and weak finished products lead to the continuous compression of steel mill profits. The iron water production is expected to stop falling and then oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil inventory [10][14]. - **Rebar**: The basis and spread of rebar show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The new - house sales remain at a low level, and the market confidence is still sluggish. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is healthy. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [21][26][32][37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The basis and spread of hot - rolled coil also show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The demand is flat, and the export order receipt decreases month - on - month. The inventory is high, and production reduction is needed to reduce inventory. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [42][48][49][53][55]. - **Variety spread and regional difference**: Analyzed the price spreads between different steel products (such as cold - hot spread, coil - rebar spread) and regional price differences [59][66]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The overseas iron ore shipments have declined from the high level at the beginning of the year, and there are also disturbances in the acceptance of Jinbuba and the pricing index of Rio Tinto and Fortescue. The supply of non - mainstream mines has some changes, and the domestic mines in the southwest region have significantly increased their production after the New Year [79][90][102]. - **Demand**: The downstream may show a restocking drive before the Spring Festival, and the iron water production has rebounded month - on - month. The substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore is weakening [79][108]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore remains at a high level [112][115]. - **Price performance**: The main 05 - contract price of iron ore is still strong. The medium - grade iron ore prices are strong in the spot market [83][84]. 3.3 Coal - Coke - **Supply**: The domestic coal production has rapidly recovered, and the Mongolian coal imports are expected to decline in January due to the high port inventory [136]. - **Demand**: The iron water production has increased, and the downstream raw material procurement enthusiasm has improved, but the blast furnace resumption rhythm of steel mills still needs to be observed [137]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal at all levels has increased month - on - month, mainly in independent coking plants and ports [138]. - **Viewpoint**: The coal - coke market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating, and investors are advised to try to go long at low prices [139]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - **Market trend**: The prices of ferroalloys first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. - **Manganese silicon**: The production has decreased slightly month - on - month. The new round of steel procurement is about to start, and the steel mills may start the restocking rhythm. The manganese ore supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the port prices are firm [237][244][261]. - **Silicon iron**: The production has increased month - on - month. The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei has increased month - on - month, and the raw material restocking rhythm may start. The non - steel demand has some changes, and the inventory has increased [274][279][287][289].