Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [2] - Silver: Neutral [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Bearish [2] - Lead: Bullish [2] - Tin: Neutral [2] - Aluminum: Neutral [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC meeting outcomes were in line with expectations [2]. - Silver: Expected to experience oscillatory adjustments [2]. - Copper: Decrease in warrant inventories supports prices [2]. - Zinc: Likely to perform weakly [2]. - Lead: With marginal improvement in consumption, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [2]. - Tin: Expected to oscillate within a range [2]. - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate within a range [2]. - Alumina: Likely to perform weakly [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: With smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations in play, nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: With short - term supply - demand and cost factors in conflict, steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 827.50 with a daily increase of 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 838.26 with a night - session increase of 1.02%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9940 with a daily increase of 1.33%, and the night - session closing price was 10204.00 with a night - session increase of 2.68% [5]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 999 kg to 57429 kg, while Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 44080 kg to 1159443 kg [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and Trump planned to meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC meeting and visit China early next year [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity was 0, and silver trend intensity was 1 [9]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79850 with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 80080 with a night - session increase of 0.29% [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 631 tons to 31838 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1225 tons to 147650 tons [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Panama planned to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine, and China's copper production in September was expected to decline [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity was 0 [13]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22040 with a decrease of 0.02%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2898.5 with a decrease of 0.50% [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 1710 tons to 52531 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 47825 tons [14]. - **News**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted the property tax policy, exempting the first - home from property tax [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity was - 1 [16]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17180 with an increase of 0.20%, and the LME lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2003 with a decrease of 0.05% [17]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 2086 tons to 47289 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2375 tons to 220300 tons [17]. - **News**: Fed Kashkari thought two more interest rate cuts this year were appropriate [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity was 0 [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 268770 with a decrease of 0.12%, and the LME tin 3M electronic - disk closing price was 34220 with an increase of 1.39% [20]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 356 tons to 6558 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 140 tons to 2505 tons [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, including the China - US leaders' phone call and other events [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity was 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20795, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2953 [23]. - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained at 63.60 million tons, and Australian alumina FOB price decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 320 dollars/ton [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: New Fed governor Milan planned to continue interest rate cuts in the next few months [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity was 0, alumina trend intensity was - 1, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensity was 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121500, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12860 [26]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, and Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity was 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity was 0 [31].

2025 年 9 月 22 日 股指期货将震荡整理 白银期货再创上市以来新高 白银、工 业硅期货将震荡偏强 黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻 璃、纯碱将偏强震荡 原油期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4495 和 4545 点，支撑位 4444 和 4413 点；IH2512 阻力位 2940 和 2955 点，支撑位 2898 和 2884 点；IC2512 阻力位 7150 和 7200 点，支撑位 6881 和 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Various energy and chemical futures show different trends, including short - term rebounds, mid - term weakness, and different trading strategies such as spreads and position management. For example, PX and PTA show short - term rebounds but mid - term weakness, while some products like rubber are in a state of shock operation [2][10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6594，涨跌幅 - 1.35%；PTA主力收盘价4604，涨跌幅 - 1.33%；MEG主力收盘价4257，涨跌幅 - 0.26%。PX11 - 1月差昨日收盘价0，前日收盘价18；PTA11 - 1月差昨日收盘价 - 22，前日收盘价 - 20；MEG1 - 5月差昨日收盘价 - 60，前日收盘价 - 62 [5] - **Market Dynamics**: On September 19, Asian PX prices fell to $816/ton CFR Unv1/China due to negative downstream PTA market margins. Chinese domestic PTA margins are negative, around 120 - 130 yuan/ton. Some PTA production line startups are postponed, and some PX and PTA device maintenance plans are affected [6][9] - **Trend Intensity**: All are 0, indicating a neutral view [10] - **Views and Suggestions**: PX and PTA are expected to rebound in the short - term following oil prices, with 11 - 01 long spreads and 1 - 5 short spreads. For PX, PXN compression positions should stop profit below $220. For MEG, the market focuses on anti - involution policies, with a mid - term weak trend and 1 - 5 short spreads [10][11][12] Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber主力日盘收盘价15,535元/吨，夜盘收盘价15,545元/吨，成交量264,433手，持仓量159,362手等. The basis and spreads show certain changes [14] - **Industry News**: In 2025, domestic tire enterprises' overseas investment and construction scale continues to expand. Most tire listed companies' revenues increase, but profits decline due to high raw material costs and trade barriers [16][17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [14] - **Views**: Rubber is in a state of shock operation [13] Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: The 10 - contract of synthetic rubber has a daily - closing price of 11,445 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 94,561 hands and a position of 75,259 hands. The basis and spreads change slightly [18] - **Industry News**: As of September 17, 2025, domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber sample enterprise inventories decreased by 0.08 million tons, and butadiene East China port inventories decreased by 2,500 tons [19] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [20] - **Views**: Short - term shock pressure, with a narrowing downside space due to high supply pressure and cost - side pressure [20] Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: BU2511 closed at 3,421 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 179,842 hands and a position of 232,100 hands. The refinery operating rate is 42.59%, and the inventory rate is 26.24% [22] - **Market News**: Last week, domestic asphalt device maintenance increased by 2.0 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 77 heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.5%. The capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises increased by 1.7%, and the shipment volume of 54 asphalt enterprises increased by 14.6% [33] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [30] - **Views**: Narrow - range shock operation [21] LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: L2601 closed at 7169, with a trading volume of 201,711 hands and a position change of 26,840 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 79 [35] - **Spot News**: LLDPE market prices fell slightly, with weak trading due to low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [35] - **Market Analysis**: PE demand improves due to the approaching peak season of the agricultural film industry. Supply pressure may ease in the East China region at the end of September. Polyethylene social inventory is relatively low, and the mid - term trend is expected to be range - bound [36] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [37] PP - **Fundamental Data**: PP2601 closed at 6914, with a trading volume of 230,403 hands and a position change of 35,189 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 174 [39] - **Spot News**: The domestic PP market is weak, with prices falling by 10 - 40 yuan/ton due to weak futures and low downstream purchasing [40] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply - side maintenance increases, and downstream processing start - up rates improve slightly. Before the National Day, the market is rational, and short - selling should be cautious [40] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [41] Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: The 01 - contract futures price is 2641, and the Shandong 32% ion - membrane caustic soda spot price is 780 [44] - **Spot News**: Shandong alumina manufacturers reduced the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan/ton on September 21 [45] - **Market Analysis**: Shandong caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production increase cannot be falsified in the short - term. The market may show a wide - range shock [46] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [47] Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: The pulp main contract has a daily - closing price of 5,018 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 177,854 hands and a position of 166,419 hands. The basis and spreads change slightly [50] - **Industry News**: The pulp market is generally weak, with high port inventories and weak downstream demand. The prices of some paper products are stable, and the industry's profitability is poor [51][52] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [50] - **Views**: Wide - range shock operation [49] Glass - **Fundamental Data**: FG601 closed at 1216, with a trading volume of 1,273,744 hands and a position change of 1,183 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 96 [54] - **Spot News**: Domestic float glass market prices are stable, with some price loosening in the Shahe area. Supply is unchanged, and some downstream processing plants have pre - holiday rush orders [54] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [54] - **Views**: The original sheet price is stable [53] Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Methanol主力01合约收盘价2,361元/吨，成交量756,698手，持仓量928,408手. The basis is - 108, and the MA01 - MA05 spread is - 20 [57] - **Spot News**: As of September 17, 2025, China's methanol port sample inventory is 155.78 million tons, with a slight increase. Different regions have different inventory trends [59] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [60] - **Views**: The short - term main contract is under shock pressure, but the downside space is narrowing due to supply - side pressure and potential fundamental improvement [59][60] Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Urea主力01合约收盘价1,661元/吨，成交量112,725手，持仓量297,254手. The basis and spreads change slightly [62] - **Industry News**: On September 17, 2025, China's urea enterprise total inventory increased by 3.26 million tons. The mid - term trend is bearish due to weak domestic demand and limited export price drive [63][64] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [64] - **Views**: The trend is under pressure, with possible pre - National Day price - cut promotions [64] Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Styrene2511 closed at 7,152, and the EB - BZ spread is 1315. Non - integrated and integrated profits change [65] - **Spot News**: The macro mood is weak, and Shandong styrene prices are soft. Downstream replenishment willingness is low, and port inventories may accumulate. Pure benzene supply pressure is high in the fourth quarter [66] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [65] - **Views**: Mid - term bearish [65] Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: SA2601 closed at 1,318, with a trading volume of 922,286 hands and a position change of - 9,941 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 118 [70] - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market is in shock adjustment, with stable prices. Some devices have slight production increases, and downstream demand is moderate [70] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [70] - **Views**: The spot market has little change [69] LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: PG2510 closed at 4,425, with a daily decline of 0.78%. PL2601 closed at 6,388, with a daily decline of 0.56%. PDH, MTBE, and alkylation start - up rates change [73] - **Market News**: On September 19, 2025, the CP paper goods prices of propane and butane decreased. There are many domestic PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [80][81] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [77] - **Views**: LPG shows short - term narrow - range shock, and propylene is weak at high levels in the short - term [72][73] PVC - **Fundamental Data**: 01 - contract futures price is 4950, and the East China spot price is 4780, with a basis of - 170 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 303 [83] - **Spot News**: The domestic PVC spot market is stable, with weak trading. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern is unchanged [83] - **Market Analysis**: PVC is short - term strong due to anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, but mid - term pressure remains due to high production, high inventory, weak domestic demand, and policy - affected exports [83] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [84] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: FU2510 closed at 2,819, with a daily increase of 0.43%. LU2510 closed at 3,368, with a daily decline of 0.27%. Spot prices in different regions change [86] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [86] - **Views**: Fuel oil shows a short - term adjustment trend with a slight night - session decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak shock state with a narrowing high - low sulfur spread [86] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: EC2510 closed at 1,050.5, with a daily decline of 6.00%. Different contracts' trading volumes, positions, and spreads are provided. SCFIS and SCFI for European and US - West routes show different trends [88] - **Trend Intensity**: Not provided - **Views**: In a shock market [88]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 21, the four major index futures contracts for the current month showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.59%, IH rose 0.36%, IC rose 0.24%, and IM fell 0.02%. The total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of all index futures decreased [3][4]. - The stock market declined across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.16%. The A - share market volume shrank, with over 3400 stocks closing lower [9]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: - The closing prices of various index futures contracts showed different trends. For example, IF2509 closed at 4510, up 0.59%; IH2509 closed at 2918.4, up 0.36%; IC2509 closed at 7181.8, up 0.24%; and IM2509 closed at 7448, down 0.02% [3][5]. - **Basis**: - The basis of different index futures contracts also varied. For instance, the basis of IF2509 was 8.08, and that of IH2509 was 8.66 [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume and open interest of each index futures contract changed. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, and the total open interest also decreased. Specifically, IF's total trading volume decreased by 56943 lots, and its total open interest decreased by 31650 lots [3][4]. 3.2 Index Futures Member Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 members in each index futures contract changed. For example, in IF2509, the long - position change was - 21047, and the short - position change was - 18377 [7]. 3.3 Trend Strength and Important Drivers - **Trend Strength**: - The trend strength of IF and IH was 1, and that of IC and IM was also 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]. - **Important Drivers**: - There was a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump, which was positive for Sino - US relations. Shanghai adjusted its personal housing property tax policy [8]. 3.4 Stock Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all closed lower, with the market volume shrinking. The real - estate stocks showed frequent fluctuations, and the technology stocks had intensified divergence. The sectors of excavators, coal, and lithography machines led the gains, while the robot, SPD, and Xiaomi car concepts led the losses [9].

Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week and their potential impact on the futures market, including economic data from China, the United States, and the Eurozone [2][3][4] Key Points by Date September 22 - China's central bank will announce the September 2025 LPR at 09:00, with the 1 - year LPR expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR expected to be 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values, having a neutral impact on futures [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry at 15:00, with capital market development likely to be a core topic [4] - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be - 15.4, up from - 15.5 [5] September 23 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, expected to be 51, up from 50.7, which may help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [8] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the US September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, expected to be 53.5, up from 53, which may also help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [9] September 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the mid - September market prices of important production materials at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [10] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August new home sales at 22:00, with the seasonally - adjusted annualized total expected to be 653,000, up from 652,000, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 19 at 22:30. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures prices rise [12] - The US Conference Board will announce the September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be 102.9, down from 103.3, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [13] September 25 - The central bank will conduct an incremental roll - over of the maturing MLF, with 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing on this day [14] - The Gfk Institute will announce Germany's October consumer confidence index at 14:00, expected to be - 23.3, up from - 23.6 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the Q2 2025 GDP at 20:30, with the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP expected to be 3.3% [16] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of August durable goods orders at 20:30, expected to be - 0.5%, up from - 2.8%, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 at 20:30, expected to be 225,000, down from 231,000, which may help industrial product futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [18] - The National Association of Realtors will announce the annualized total of August existing home sales at 22:00, expected to be 3.98 million, down from 4.01 million [19] September 26 - The US Department of Commerce will announce the August PCE price index at 20:30. If the annual and monthly rates of the PCE price index are slightly higher than the previous values and the core PCE price index shows specific changes, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December [20] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August personal consumption expenditures at 20:30, with the monthly rate expected to be 0.4%, down from 0.5%, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [21] September 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in August at 09:30, with the previous value (July) showing a 1.5% year - on - year decline and a 1.7% cumulative decline from January to July [22]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report indicates that the consumption of lead has marginally improved, and the price will fluctuate strongly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 17,180 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic disk of lead was 2,003 US dollars/ton, down 0.05% [1]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 35,232 lots, a decrease of 3,911 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,727 lots, a decrease of 1,322 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 53,199 lots, an increase of 14,163 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 165,542 lots, an increase of 1,168 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -43.72 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.33 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Import and Export**: The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -294.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.62 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month contract was -385.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.37 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 47,289 tons, a decrease of 2,086 tons; the LME lead inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease of 2,375 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 31 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. News - Fed's Kashkari believes that two more interest rate cuts this year are appropriate, and the risk in the labor market may be greater than the inflation risk [1]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the theme of "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" on September 22, 2025 [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will fluctuate around the cost line with wide - amplitude oscillations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2511 and 2601 are 5736 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan and 8 yuan respectively compared to the previous trading day. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2511 and 2601 are 5930 yuan/ton and 5964 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan and 6 yuan respectively. The trading volumes and open interests of different contracts are also presented [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5730 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) is - 386 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) is - 234 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 0 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 is - 34 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spread between silicomanganese 2511 and ferrosilicon 2511 is 194 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On September 19, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5450 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon was 5900 - 6050 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1140 dollars/ton, both up 10 dollars/ton. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [1]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of September 19, the total inventory of manganese ore was 420.63 million tons, a decrease of 24.15 million tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in Tianjin Port decreased by 18.92 million tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 7.25 million tons, in Caofeidian Port increased by 2.52 million tons, and in Fangchenggang decreased by 0.5 million tons [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [3].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 22 日 鸡蛋：旺季将过 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡 蛋2510 | 3,025 | -0.53 | | -32,405 | -8,471 | | | 鸡 蛋2601 | 3,418 | 0.65 | | -6,036 | -3,886 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡 蛋1 0-1 2价 差 | | -231 | | -223 | | | | 鸡 蛋1 0-1价 差 | | -393 | | -375 | | | 产业链数据 | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.50 | | 3.50 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.42 | | 3.53 | | | | 山西现货价格 | | 3.55 | | 3.65 | | | ...

| | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22040 | -0.02% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2898.5 | -0.50% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 93004 | -20232 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 9867 | -1533 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 123433 | 13863 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 217061 | 3687 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -65 | -5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 55 | 17 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | -80 | 10 | 进口提单溢价（美 | 135 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 元/吨） | | | | 天津 0# 锌升贴水 | -65 | 15 | 锌锭现货进口盈亏 | -2752.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong during the peak season, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - Supported by policies and the release of peak - season demand, the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1%, hitting a new high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the 2511 contract closed at 73,960, up 1,080 from T - 1; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040, up 1,100 from T - 1. The trading volumes and open interests of the two contracts also changed, with the trading volume of the 2511 contract at 370,359, down 131,910 from T - 1, and the open interest at 281,264, down 147 from T - 1 [1]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 460, and the spot - 2601 was - 540. The basis between 2511 - 2601 was - 80. The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) was 2,250 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859, up 1 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,880, up 65 from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500, up 50 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,534 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - According to the latest research data of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the retail targets of leading manufacturers accounting for nearly 80% of the total market sales are generally high this month. The retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].