Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Urea is experiencing a short - term high - level correction and will enter a mid - term oscillation pattern. In the short term, with a large amount of speculative funds leaving the market on Friday night, the commodity index has fallen from a high level, and urea futures are expected to follow suit. Also, with the strengthening of the basis, the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market is expected to be released, bringing supply - side selling pressure to the spot market. In the medium term, urea is expected to oscillate mainly due to the ongoing anti - involution policy which supports the overall valuation of commodities, and the potential second - batch export of urea which may support the demand side. Overall, it is in a short - term correction with a unilateral weakening trend and is expected to oscillate in the medium term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,803 yuan/ton (up from 1,785 yuan/ton), the settlement price was 1,798 yuan/ton (up from 1,782 yuan/ton), the trading volume was 236,179 lots, the open interest of the 09 contract was 171,609 lots (down 2,182 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 2,523 tons (unchanged), and the trading volume was 849.507 million yuan (up 139.148 million yuan). The Shandong regional basis was - 13 (down from 25), the Fengxi - to - disk spread was - 113 (unchanged), the Dongguang - to - disk spread was - 23 (unchanged), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 4 (up from - 11) [1] - **Spot Market**: Among urea factory prices, Henan Xinlianxin was 1,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,495 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton), Shandong Ruixing was 1,810 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,690 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton), Hebei Dongguang was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,880 yuan/ton (unchanged). Among trader prices, the Shandong region was 1,790 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and the Shanxi region was 1,690 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton). The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 83.21% (up 1.04 percentage points) and the daily output was 192,650 tons (up 2,400 tons) [1] 2. Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this period, but the decline narrowed. With weak domestic demand, the overall order - taking and shipment of urea factories slowed down. However, due to some goods still being in the process of export collection and local downstream periodic bargain - hunting purchases, the overall urea factories showed a slight destocking. Some provinces saw an increase in enterprise inventory, while others saw a decrease. Overall, the urea trading has been weak for several consecutive days this week, and the second - batch export has not started yet. It is expected that the inventory of urea production enterprises will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern next week [1]

PVC：短期偏弱 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 周五夜盘商品普遍大幅下跌，反内卷情绪减弱，短期情绪面和资金集中平仓影响仍较大，下周 PVC 预 计走势偏弱。PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造， 目前反内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业，因此影响相对有限。 基本面看，PVC 行业利润在此轮反弹过程中大幅扩张。下半年看，供应端减产驱动不足，PVC 高产量， 高库存的结构难以缓解，因此市场后期仍会做空氯碱利润。此外，宏观方面关注 8 月份贸易战可能超预期 的风险。 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PVC 检修量低于 2023 年同期，高产量格局持续。一方面氯碱成本下滑， 另一方面 2025 年烧碱需求支撑尚可，维持较高利润，氯碱产业链以碱补氯，这也加大了 PVC 自身因亏损导 致大规模减产的难度。此外，未来仍有较多产能投产，尤其在 7-8 月将面临新增产能投放，预计投产达到 110 万吨，高产量格局短期难改变。 高库存的压力持续，出口需求也只能阶段性缓解：2025 年 PVC 出口市场竞争压力增大，出口仍会受印 度加征反倾销税和 BIS 认证影响，因此 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets has declined, and there is a risk of significant price drops in industrial silicon [1]. - The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - Industrial silicon (Si2509) had a closing price of 9,725 yuan/ton, with a significant decrease in trading volume compared to previous periods. Its open interest also decreased [1]. - Polysilicon (PS2509) had a closing price of 51,025 yuan/ton, and both trading volume and open interest declined [1]. - **Basis**: - The spot premium/discount for industrial silicon varied depending on the benchmark, with some showing changes compared to previous periods [1]. - The spot premium/discount for polysilicon (N - type re - feeding) was - 4,525 yuan/ton, with significant changes over different time intervals [1]. - **Price**: - The price of industrial silicon products such as East China oxygen - passed Si5530 and Yunnan Si4210 showed some increases compared to previous periods [1]. - The price of polysilicon (N - type re - feeding) was 46,500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Profit**: - Silicon plant profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 were negative, but showed some improvement compared to previous periods [1]. - Polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.9 yuan/kg, with a slight improvement compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 53.5 million tons, with a decrease compared to previous periods [1]. - Polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 24.3 million tons, also showing a decrease [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes showed different trends, with some remaining stable and others changing slightly [1]. Macro and Industry News - In the first half of this year, Zhejiang purchased 12.6 million green certificates through the Beijing Power Trading Green Certificate Platform, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity, ranking first in the State Grid's operating area [3].

2025 年 7 月 28 日 LPG：化工需求高位，价格相对抗跌 丙烯：供需短期偏弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 4,047 | 0.60% | 3,961 | -2.13% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,468 | 0.27% | 4,382 | -1.92% | | | PL2601 | 6,657 | 0.85% | 6,575 | -1.23% | | | PL2602 | 6,705 | 0.25% | 6,641 | -0.95% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 110,563 | 10383 | 87,911 | -611 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 28,925 | 5218 | 58,900 | 4186 | | | PL2601 ...

烧碱：关注交割压力 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2637 830 2594 -43 2025 年 7 月 28 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【市场状况分析】 周五夜盘商品普遍大幅下跌，反内卷情绪减弱，短期情绪面和资金集中平仓影响仍较大，下周烧碱预计 走势偏弱。烧碱在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，驱动不足，目前反内卷政策也未涉及烧碱行 业。 目前烧碱由于处于需求淡季，涨价动力不足，但又受液氯偏弱影响，成本支撑强，未来需要关注耗氯下 游对烧碱供应的影响。此外，需要关注 08 合约仓单对市场的冲击，因此烧碱短期承压，长期看，烧碱旺季 需求仍有期待。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：-1 以山东地区为基准，山东液碱涨跌互现。库存低位企 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to the impact of short - term market sentiment changes on the cotton market. It also presents detailed data on cotton fundamentals, macro and industry news, and the trend strength of cotton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,170 yuan/ton with a 0.07% daily increase and 14,150 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.14% - -0.17% decrease; CY2509 closed at 20,370 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily increase and 20,335 yuan/ton at night; ICE US Cotton 12 closed at 68.23 cents/pound with a - 0.74% decrease. The trading volume and open interest of CF2509 increased, while CY2509's trading volume decreased and open interest increased [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 72 to 9,265, and the effective forecast increased by 15 to 350. Cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 96, and the effective forecast increased by 96 to 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The prices of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased slightly, while the prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased slightly. The 3128B index decreased by 0.09%. The international cotton index M increased by 0.59%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S remained unchanged, and its arrival price increased by 0.16% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall rigid - demand trading of cotton spot was still acceptable, with better sales of old cotton. Some high - price basis quotes were slightly adjusted down, and the overall basis remained stable. There were specific basis quotes for different types of cotton [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with spinning mills having firm quotes and downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was generally light, with stable prices. Factories had high inventories, and the de - stocking effect was average [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly, and the market lacked fundamental guidance, resulting in light trading [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the asphalt market, showing that the asphalt market is experiencing slow shipments and repeated fluctuations. The current trend strength is neutral, and the market is following the oil price to fluctuate within a range, while regional spot price differences are stabilizing with fluctuations. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - BU2508 yesterday's closing price was 3,641 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the overnight closing price was 3,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. The trading volume was 391 lots, a decrease of 733 lots, and the open interest was 3,570 lots, a decrease of 87 lots. - BU2509 yesterday's closing price was 3,615 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.36%, and the overnight closing price was 3,591 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%. The trading volume was 205,894 lots, an increase of 38,916 lots, and the open interest was 171,367 lots, a decrease of 15,043 lots. - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 82,180 lots, a decrease of 120 lots [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The basis (Shandong - 08) was 139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous day. - The 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan from the previous day. - The Shandong - South China spread was 190, a decrease of 5 from the previous day. - The East China - South China spread was 190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,913 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 4,058 yuan/ton. - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, unchanged, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,701 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,739 yuan/ton. - As of July 24, the refinery operating rate was 31.95%, a decrease of 1.29% from July 21, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.10%, a decrease of 0.79% from July 21 [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Production Data**: In the week of 20250718 - 20250724, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 51.7 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week and a 12.1% increase year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to July was 1,755.4 million tons, a 7.7% increase year - on - year [14]. - **Inventory Data**: - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 72.3 million tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 21. The East China region had the largest de - stocking amplitude. - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 185.7 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from July 21. The East China region's social warehouses had obvious de - stocking [14]. 3.3 Trend Strength The asphalt trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the strength range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a short - term view of a high - level pullback and a medium - term view of an oscillating pattern [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the futures price of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to pull back from the high level and enter an oscillating pattern in the medium term. Short - term, with a large amount of speculative funds leaving the market on Friday night, the commodity index has fallen from its high, and synthetic rubber will follow suit. Also, with the strengthening of the basis, the supply pressure on the spot market is expected to increase. Medium - term, cis - butadiene rubber is expected to oscillate due to the ongoing anti - involution policy, the stable support of the rubber sector, and the marginal improvement of the synthetic rubber industry chain fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract), the daily closing price was 12,415 yuan/ton (up 130 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 160,791 lots (up 12,149 lots), the open interest was 49,311 lots (up 483 lots), and the trading volume was 9.90584 billion yuan (up 943.32 million yuan) [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract was - 265 yuan (down 80 yuan), the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was - 30 yuan (down 5 yuan). The prices of North China, East China, and South China private cis - butadiene increased by 50 yuan respectively. The Shandong cis - butadiene market price (delivery product) increased by 50 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) and (model 1712) increased by 250 yuan and 200 yuan respectively. The Jiangsu and Shandong mainstream prices of butadiene increased by 100 yuan and 75 yuan respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 71.3912% (unchanged), the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 12,491 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cis - butadiene profit was - 291 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.2 Industry News - **Butadiene Inventory**: As of July 23, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period. Limited import shipments and weather - affected delays led to the decrease [2]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of July 23, 2025 (week 30), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% from the previous week. Due to macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to be strong, the supply price increased significantly, and the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly while that of sample trading enterprises increased [2][3].

Report Information - Date: July 28, 2025 [1][4][9][12] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Commodity prices fell during the night session on Friday. Pay attention to the transmission of pessimistic sentiment [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment is declining. Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline [2][12] - Polysilicon: Sentiment is declining [2][12] Industry - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 124,360 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,030 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and various spreads [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped production [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 80,520 yuan, with detailed data on trading volume, open interest, and various spreads and prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the LC2509 contract [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,725 yuan, and that of the PS2509 contract was 51,025 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices in the industrial chain, as well as inventory and cost data [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first half of the year, Zhejiang purchased 126 million green certificates, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon trend intensities are - 1 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to have a bullish and volatile trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a bullish and volatile trend due to sector - wide market resonance [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to show a strong trend, affected by energy consumption, carbon emissions information, and industry "involution" information respectively [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized [2][14]. - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with a volatile trend as daily consumption recovers [18]. - Logs are likely to have a fluctuating and repeated trend [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton (-1.05%). Imported and most domestic spot prices decreased. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China" [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 increased, with trading volume and open interest rising. Spot prices in major regions also increased. Some basis and spread values changed [6]. - **News**: Steel Union's weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment [7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased significantly. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose by 20 yuan/ton. Various price differences changed [11]. - **News**: Iron alloy online reported price ranges of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and manganese ore inventory increased [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume and open interest of coking coal and coke changed. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke varieties increased. Basis and spread values also changed [14]. - **News**: There were price changes in northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index. Regarding open interest, for coking coal JM2509, long positions increased by 33,862 lots and short positions increased by 38,709 lots; for coke J2509, long positions decreased by 1,156 lots and short positions decreased by 130 lots [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's ZC2507 contract had no trading. Southern port and domestic production area prices were provided. Open interest of the ZC2507 contract had no change [19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of log contracts increased slightly, while trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, with some showing small changes [23]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [25].