Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The nickel price is oscillating at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The steel price is moving in an oscillating manner as a result of the game between short - term supply - demand and cost factors [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: With strong demand in the peak season, the price is in range - bound oscillations [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: The short - term fundamental outlook has improved [2][13]. - Polysilicon: The short - term market sentiment has cooled down [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data** - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,500 yuan, with a trading volume of 62,653 lots. The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,900 yuan, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 265 yuan [4]. - Stainless steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,860 yuan, and the trading volume was 116,925 lots. The price of 304/2B coil - wool edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel mines is 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target of 3.19 billion tons [4][5]. - Some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended production due to long - term losses, which are expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron production by about 1,900 metal tons [5][7]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data** - The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73,960 yuan, and the trading volume was 370,359 lots. The spot - 2511 basis was - 460 yuan [10]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,534 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [11]. - It is expected that the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September will reach about 2.15 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new - energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million units, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1% [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data** - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 9,305 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 510,306 lots. The industrial silicon - social inventory was 543,000 tons [13]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the PS2511 contract was 52,700 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 329,612 lots. The polysilicon - N - type re - feed price was 52,600 yuan/ton [13]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Inner Mongolia is actively stabilizing the income level of new - energy projects, promoting the high - quality development of new energy. The new - energy power in the region has all achieved online trading [13]. - The solar panels in Hohhot are transmitting green electricity to the Shimen wind - solar power station. The project has an installed capacity of 1.7 million kilowatts of wind power and 300,000 kilowatts of photovoltaic power, with an annual green - electricity production of over 4.1 billion kilowatt - hours [13][15].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on September 22, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil has no clear upward or downward drivers and needs to release inventory pressure [2] - Soybean oil is in a weak and volatile state as Sino - US talks did not cover soybeans [2][5] - For soybean meal, due to changing trade expectations, US soybeans are weak while Dalian soybean meal may be strong [2][12] - Soybean No.1 is in a low - level oscillation, and the market atmosphere of the soybean sector should be monitored [2][12] - For corn, attention should be paid to the listing of new grain [2][15] - Sugar is in a low - level consolidation [2][20] - The cotton market focuses on the listing situation of new cotton [2][25] - The peak season for eggs is coming to an end [2][31] - The pig market is in a stage of concentrated release of contradictions before the festival [2][34] - Peanut prices have declined [2][39] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 9,316 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.13% increase and 9,306 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.11% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 73,092 lots, and open interest decreased by 11,365 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis in Guangdong was - 16 yuan/ton. [6] - **News**: Malaysia's ITS palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 1,010,032 tons [8] - **Trend Strength**: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [11] Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,328 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.53% increase and 8,322 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.07% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 17,302 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,418 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,710 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The basis in Guangdong was 382 yuan/ton. [6] - **News**: In the 38th week (September 13 - 19), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. It is expected to be 2.3878 million tons in the 39th week, with an operating rate of 66.65% [10] - **Trend Strength**: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: For soybean meal, the closing price of DCE soybean meal 2601 was 3,014 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.43% increase and 3,019 yuan/ton at night with a 0.50% increase. For soybean No.1, the closing price of DCE soybean No.1 2511 was 3,904 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.31% increase and 3,901 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.13% decrease. [12] - **News**: On September 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower as the Sino - US call did not reach an agreement on soybean exports [11][14] - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of soybean meal is + 1 (strong), and that of soybean No.1 is 0 (neutral) [14] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,158 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.19 yuan change and 2,157 yuan/ton at night. The trading volume of the corn full - market decreased by 133,875 lots, and open interest increased by 15,709 lots. [15] - **News**: Northern corn port prices, Guangdong Shekou prices, and other price information are provided, and prices in some regions have changed [16] - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.18 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,910 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,461 yuan/ton. [20] - **News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast. China's sugar imports in August were 830,000 tons. [20] - **Trend Strength**: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,720 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.33% decrease and 13,735 yuan/ton at night with a 0.11% increase. Spot prices in various regions declined slightly. [25] - **News**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the cotton yarn market was generally traded. The market's expectation for the future market decreased. [26] - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [29] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2510 was 3,025 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.53% decrease, and that of egg 2601 was 3,418 yuan/500 kg with a 0.65% increase. Spot prices in some regions declined. [31] - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [32] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 12,930 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts showed different changes. The trading volume of some contracts decreased, and open interest changed. [35] - **Market Logic**: Group supply decreased, but weight increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened. The probability of pressure release in the spot market before the festival increased. [37] - **Trend Strength**: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [36] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,460 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan. The trading volume of the peanut full - market increased by 127,736 lots, and open interest increased by 1,804 lots. [39] - **Spot Market**: In some regions, prices were stable, and in some areas, the prices of high - quality finished products were strong. [40] - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests testing support levels for crude oil and holding various long - positions in light positions [1] - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices will gradually decline to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ phasing out "second - round production cuts" and expected growth in global crude oil inventories. The daily average increase in global crude oil inventories is predicted to be 1.1 million barrels in 2025 and 2.1 million barrels in 2026 [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Benchmark Crude - Brent (Dated): Price data not provided. North Sea supply recovery expectations suppress prices, while geopolitical risks provide bottom - line support [2] - WTI (Cushing): Price is $64.08, with a daily change of $0.3. The end of the US refinery autumn maintenance season and rising demand drive up inland oil prices [2] - Dubai: Price is $81.21, with a daily change of $0.34. Stable Asian refinery procurement demand and lower official Middle - East selling prices stimulate buying interest [2] - Oman: Price is $81.55, with a daily change of $0.45. Driven by the strengthening of the Dubai benchmark, the spot discount of Omani crude oil narrows [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front): Spread is $4.18, with a daily change of - $0.07. Increased US exports narrow the trans - Atlantic spread and the arbitrage window closes [2] - Brent EFP (Nov): Spread is - $0.01, with a daily change of - $0.05. The deepening contango structure in the futures market reflects the expectation of abundant short - term supply [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct): Spread is $0.1, with a daily change of $0.03. Tight Omani crude oil supply leads to an expanded premium relative to Dubai [2] Refining Profits - Gasoline裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $8.93. Seasonal decline in Asian gasoline demand puts pressure on refinery profit margins [4] - Diesel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $18.91. Robust industrial demand and low inventories support strong diesel cracking [4] - Jet fuel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $17.86. The continuous recovery of the aviation industry, but the commissioning of new refining capacity increases supply pressure [4] Key Middle - East Crude - Umm Lulu: Price is $69.9, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.16 to Dubai. Weak demand for heavy crude oil and refineries' preference for light, low - sulfur crude oil lead to an expanded discount [4] - Das Blend: Price is $69.35, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $2.61 to Dubai. Reduced purchases by Asian buyers increase the pressure of oversupply in the spot market [4] - Murban: Price is $69.85, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.11 to Dubai. The light - crude characteristics are favored by Asian refineries, but the overall market downturn drags down the price [4] Key Market News - The Premier of the State Council, Li Qiang, met with a delegation of US House of Representatives members [5] - Israeli MPs' visit to Taiwan was strongly condemned by the Chinese embassy [5] - Trump pressured European countries to stop buying Russian oil [5] - Iran will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the actions of the UK, France, and Germany in pushing for the resumption of sanctions against Iran [5] - The EU is considering trade measures against the Russian "Friendship" oil pipeline [6] - Citi analysts predict that Brent crude prices will decline from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ actions and expected inventory growth [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral trend on a scale from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term repair trend of the stock market has not reversed, and the short - term adjustment is mainly due to the steep upward slope and external regulation. The stock market does not have much room for a significant decline. After the shock last week, the weighted indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index have started to show a high - level shock pattern, and the slow - bull feature of A - shares is clear [1][2] - In the short term, the news of the Sino - US presidential call after the market on Friday and the new positive real - estate policy in Shanghai may still boost market sentiment. During the upcoming National Day holiday, trading is expected to turn light. Without black swan events, the index is expected to continue the range - bound pattern. In October, new variables such as policies and Sino - US geopolitics should be monitored [2] - Factors to watch include domestic policy trends and Sino - US geopolitical news [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. Among them, the Brazilian BOVESPA index rose 2.53%, the Nasdaq rose 2.21%, while the CSI 300 Financial index fell 4.06%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30% [8][10] - Since 2025, major domestic indices have generally risen. The ChiNext Index has risen 44.3%, the SME Board Index has risen 25.9%, and the Shenzhen Component Index has risen 25.5% [8] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, the IM2509 contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume of stock index futures first rose and then fell, and the open interest declined [12][15][18] - The cross - variety ratio and basis of stock index futures main contracts also showed certain trends [20] 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of September 19, the TTM price - to - earnings ratios of major domestic indices were as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.35 times, the CSI 300 Index was 13.95 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.53 times, the CSI 500 Index was 34.29 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 47.38 times [21][22] 3.4 Market Fund Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the margin trading balance in the two markets showed certain trends. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net investment [24] 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set with reference to 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - Trend strategy: Buy on dips. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2510 main contract of IF is between 4352 and 4577 points; the IH2510 main contract of IH is between 2840 and 2971 points; the IC2510 main contract of IC is between 6892 and 7354 points; the IM2510 main contract of IM is between 7087 and 7564 points [4] - Cross - variety strategy: Participate in the short - term strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2025年09月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 上游 1、石脑油,乙烯 2、低硫燃料油,燃料油 3、LPG,丙烯 02 聚酯芳烃 1、PTA,MEG,对二甲苯 2、瓶片,短纤 3、苯乙烯 03 煤化工及烯烃 1、LLDPE,PP 2、尿素 04 氯碱 1、烧碱,PVC 1、橡胶 2、合成橡胶 3、纸浆 2 CONTENTS 01 氯碱及轻工 05 4、胶版印刷纸 石脑油产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年9月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 裂解-甲 ...

Group 1: Overall Report Information - Report date: September 21, 2025 [1][29][59][83] - Reported commodities: Nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, pig, peanut [2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: The smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations are in a game, and nickel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4] - Stainless steel: The short - term supply - demand and cost are in a game, and steel prices are oscillating [2][5] Key Points - Nickel fundamentals: The return of actual inventory accumulation and weak expectations suppresses nickel prices, but news from Indonesia increases short - selling risks. The global refined nickel inventory has increased by 9810 tons to 264382 tons this week. The surplus is mainly in the pure nickel segment, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [4] - Stainless steel fundamentals: The short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading" are in a game. The demand growth rate has converged to 2.0%, and the supply growth rate has converged to 2.4%. The September production schedule is expected to increase to 345 tons, a 6% month - on - month increase [5] - Inventory changes: China's social nickel inventory increased by 144 tons to 39298 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 9666 tons to 225084 tons. The stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 2.51% week - on - week to 987082 tons [6][8] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: The short - term fundamentals have expectations of improvement - Polysilicon: The market sentiment has significantly cooled down [2][29] Key Points - Price trends: The industrial silicon futures price center has risen, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon at 8800 yuan/ton (a 200 - yuan increase). The polysilicon futures price has risen and then fallen, and the spot price is stable [29] - Supply - demand fundamentals: The industrial silicon industry inventory has slightly increased, and the polysilicon upstream inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon weekly production has decreased, and the downstream demand from polysilicon and organic silicon supports consumption [30][31] - Market outlook: The short - term supply - demand of industrial silicon has improved, and it is recommended to look for buying points at low prices, with the expected price range of 9000 - 9700 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see, with the expected price range of 48000 - 53000 yuan/ton [34][35] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate: The energy - storage demand is strong, and the price is oscillating strongly [2][59] Key Points - Price trends: The lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are running strongly. The 2511 contract closed at 73960 yuan/ton, a 2800 - yuan increase week - on - week [59] - Supply - demand fundamentals: The supply has reached a record high of 20363 tons, and the domestic energy - storage demand has exceeded expectations. The 8 - month energy - storage winning bid reached 25.8GW, a 520% year - on - year increase [60] - Market outlook: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the futures main - contract price range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct selling hedging on inventory later [61][62][64] Group 5: Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Core View - Palm oil: The expectation of inventory accumulation in the producing areas is gradually digesting the callback pressure - Soybean oil: The Sino - US trade sentiment is fluctuating, and the price is oscillating within a range [2][83] Key Points - Palm oil: The European and American gasoline - diesel cracking spreads are at a high level, supporting the demand. The September production is expected to be 180 - 185 tons, and the inventory may hover around 230 tons. The Indian demand may be suppressed [84] - Soybean oil: The market's concern about the shortage of soybeans in the fourth quarter has eased, and the Sino - US negotiations have not effectively mentioned soybean purchases. The 01 contract decreased by 0.10% this week [83]

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年09月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：需求表现平淡，关注电炉节奏 2、铁矿石周度观点：宏微观预期均有支撑，高位震荡 3、煤焦周度观点：基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 4、铁合金观点：基本面与市场共振，合金走势震荡偏强 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 国内宏观：《求是》发文，反内卷 ...

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年09月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：FOMC会议降息落地 白银：突破上涨 07 锡：矛盾并不突出，触及区间下沿或有反弹 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 02 03 铜：国内补库预期以及美联储未来持续降息预期等，将支撑价格 铝：未能如期上破21000关口，低位伺机等买点 氧化铝：2900关口上下分歧较大 04 铸造铝合金：需求温和复苏，价格承压 05 锌：内外矛盾凸显，关注出口窗口打开机会 06 ...

动力煤产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 林小春 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0020198 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年9月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 01 动力煤基本面数据 动力煤港口现货报价小幅回升 资料来源 Wind 、Mysteel iFind国泰君安期货研究所 ： 资料来源： Wind 、Mysteel、iFind、国泰君安期货研究所 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5500) 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5000) 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 元/吨 大同南郊动力煤-5500-车板含税价 鄂尔多斯-电煤-5500-坑口含税价 榆林烟煤末-6000-坑口含税价 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectations are not pessimistic. The market may show wide - range fluctuations. The current upward pressure on caustic soda comes from exports and alumina. Although there is an optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future, the current situation of high inventory and low profit in the alumina industry restricts the rise of caustic soda prices. Before the start of alumina production and the improvement of exports, the upward driving force is insufficient [5]. 2.2 PVC - PVC is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the medium - term. The export market is under policy interference, and the growth rate may slow down. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the overall trend still faces pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview 3.1.1 Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. There are production cuts and shutdowns in Northwest, Central, East, and North China [5]. - Demand: In the alumina sector, high production and high inventory will continue to compress profits. Although the current production willingness is high, there is a problem of regional supply - demand mismatch. Non - aluminum demand has increased month - on - month, and there will be a phased peak - season restocking in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Exports have improved recently, but the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Viewpoint: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future cannot be falsified in the short term. The futures market is in a game between reality and expectation, showing wide - range fluctuations [5]. - Valuation: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2,188 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, pay attention to downstream restocking in mid - to late September and pre - production restocking of alumina after October. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [5]. 3.1.2 PVC - Supply: The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future, especially in September, which will bring greater supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased in 2025. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the growth rate of export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and enterprises' willingness to restock is low [7]. - Viewpoint: The PVC market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports are subject to policy interference, so the medium - term trend still faces pressure [7]. - Valuation: The basis is weak, the month - to - month spread is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to rise. The valuation is moderately high [7]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 5,000 - 5,150 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 4,800 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 01 is weakening, and the 11 - 1 spread is also weakening [12][14]. - Spread: In 2025, caustic soda exports are expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year, with annual exports possibly exceeding 4 million tons. The export market still has support, and the export profit has expanded. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong has increased, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is at a high level. However, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [16][23][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production is declining, and inventory is rising. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 378,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.02% and a year - on - year increase of 18.22% [35][36][37]. - Planned Maintenance: Pay attention to the maintenance in Shandong and Hebei in October. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [41]. - Capacity Expansion: In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. Although there are still many new capacities planned to be put into production, considering the continuous losses in chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production may be lower than expected [42][45]. - Profit: The weak price of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in the overall profit of caustic soda. The decline in electricity prices has a significant impact on the cost of caustic soda [46][49]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: The alumina industry is operating at a high capacity, but inventory is rising, and profits are declining. At the end of the year, the production of new alumina plants will drive up the rigid demand and inventory of caustic soda, especially the tank - filling demand before production, which will lead to a significant increase in the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda [75][81]. - Pulp: The pulp industry is experiencing continuous capacity expansion, and demand is gradually shifting to the peak season. The operating rate of the finished paper industry has increased month - on - month [83][89]. - Other Industries: The operating rate of viscose staple fiber has increased, the printing and dyeing industry has recovered, and the short - term demand has increased month - on - month. The water treatment industry has stable operations, and the output of the ternary precursor industry has increased [94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The basis of PVC fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 spread is weakly fluctuating [105]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has decreased month - on - month. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in September - October 2025. There will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production in 2025, with more concentrated production in the second half of the year [110][114][115]. - Profit: The integrated plants in the Northwest have acceptable profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain's long - term trend of using caustic soda to subsidize chlorine makes it difficult for PVC to significantly reduce production due to losses [117][119]. - Inventory: PVC production enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory is increasing [121]. - Demand: The terminal demand in the real estate industry has not significantly recovered, but the overall operating rate of PVC downstream industries has increased month - on - month [126][132]. - Export: The export expectation of PVC has weakened. Although the cumulative exports from January to July increased year - on - year, the future export may be affected by India's anti - dumping policy [138][141]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of PVC warehouse receipts continues to rise [142].