1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the view on crude oil is to focus on short - term sentiment - driven positives and consider adding short positions on rallies. The market may open high and then decline, with short positions recommended to be held. In the first half of the year, Brent and WTI are under significant downward pressure, potentially testing $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks, testing 380 yuan per barrel. Although the decline in oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, a long - term decline is unlikely to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may lead to increased volatility in oil prices [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply features "regional differentiation + geopolitical disturbances". The demand is dominated by the Asia - Pacific region, showing significant regional disparities. The overall view is that the market may open high and then decline, with short - term sentiment - related upside and long - term downward pressure on prices [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - The gold - to - oil ratio has strengthened again. Short - term inflation has declined, and attention should be paid to "re - inflation" trading in the medium to long term. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [18][20][21]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The production of some countries has changed, such as the increase in production in Guyana and Brazil, and the potential impact of sanctions on the supply of Venezuela and Iran. The export volume of OPEC + core members reached a peak in September and declined in the fourth quarter. US shale oil drilling and production have stabilized [8][9][23]. 3.4 Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe have rebounded, and those of Chinese state - owned and private refineries have also increased. The global refining capacity has a net increase of 3.6 million barrels per day. The demand in China is shifting from fuel to chemical raw materials, and the demand in Europe is weak [10][63][65]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories have stabilized, while Cushing inventories remain significantly below the historical average. European diesel inventories have decreased, and gasoline inventories have increased. Global in - transit crude oil inventories have declined from a high level, and global crude oil floating storage is high [67][71][73]. 3.6 Price and Spread - The spot market was weak during the holiday season. The Dubai spot spread entered a contango for the first time in two years. North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has rebounded slightly, and the valuation of SC is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [83][94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state of complex supply - demand dynamics. The overseas short - squeeze in the zinc market has ended, and the domestic destocking pace will slow down. In the short term, prices may enter a period of consolidation. In the long run, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space will determine the upside potential of prices. With the end of the zinc mine expansion cycle, a tight balance in the zinc mine market may become the norm next year, and zinc prices have the potential to rise. Investors are advised to pay attention to the upper price pressure in the short term and mid - term opportunities to buy on dips [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc's main contract last week was 23,275, with a weekly increase of 0.19%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was also 23,275, with a night - session increase of 0.00%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3,127, with an increase of 1.31% [6][7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc's main contract last Friday was 154,943 lots, a decrease of 16,575 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 86,579 lots, a decrease of 8,618 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 13,418 lots, an increase of 7,474 lots, and the open interest was 228,130 lots, an increase of 1,079 lots [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. The inventory of zinc ore, smelter finished products, and zinc ingots has shown a downward trend, while the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [9][36]. - **Profit**: Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Zinc mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high historical level, smelting profits have rebounded to a historical median level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization is at a medium - low historical level. Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization have declined to a medium level compared to the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide capacity utilization have shown mixed trends, generally at a medium - low historical level [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with the Singapore premium remaining stable, and the LME CASH - 3M has declined from a high level and changed to a Contango structure [17][18]. - **Spread**: The Contango structure of SHFE Zinc has flattened [20]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low level. The bonded - area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [28][34][36]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [37]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has decreased significantly. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a low level, and smelter raw material inventories have increased [40][41]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [47][48]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials mainly includes the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag in Tianjin, and the daily consumption of scrap steel by 147 steel mills [51][52][53]. 3.5 Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly capacity utilization of downstream industries has slightly increased, mostly at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different trends [59][62]. - **End - Users**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [76]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries, are presented, but no specific trends or conclusions are drawn in the summary [77][78][79].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with a price difference of 0 yuan/m³ for 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - As of the week of December 26, the daily average shipment volume and inventory of the four major ports remained unchanged from the previous week, with a total inventory of 1.9131 million cubic meters [6]. - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern with a weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 26 of which were going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for partial unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - Detailed information on the departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time of 33 ships from New Zealand in December is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2668 million cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [12]. - A table shows the inventory and daily shipment volume of major domestic ports over multiple time periods, including inventory changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan/m³, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 22.5 yuan/m³, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/m³ [18]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot price data of various tree species and specifications of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu regions, showing that most prices remained unchanged from the previous week [21]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of mainstream tree species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - **Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 40 + radiata pine [41]. 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of January 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1877.00 points, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 719 points, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.003, a 0.06% decrease from the previous week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.3% to 1.736 [56]. - A table shows the changes in freight - related indices and exchange rates over multiple time periods, including the comparison with the previous week and four weeks ago [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short - term, with a weak balance formed by multi - and short - factors at the current position. It's recommended to pay attention to the update of foreign market quotes and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [96]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port reached 548,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous period, a 17.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a 1.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Gaolan Port was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease [5][6]. - In November 2025, the month - end inventory of European port pulp decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, with the total inventory dropping from 1.404 million tons at the end of October to 1.389 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 46 days (standard calculation method). The total shipment volume decreased by 6.9% year - on - year [7]. - In late December 2025, domestic white cardboard and food packaging paper industries started a price repair process. Leading paper enterprises such as Bohui and APP announced price increase plans, and Wuzhou Special Paper also followed suit [7]. 3.2 Market Data - As of December 31, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 68 yuan/ton, a 326.67% increase from the previous period; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 132 yuan/ton, a 42.61% increase from the previous period; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period [14]. - As of December 31, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a 25% decrease from the previous period; the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 5.88% increase from the previous period [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between needle and broadleaf pulp narrowed, and the import profit rebounded. In January 2026, the FOB prices of broadleaf pulp from Brazil and Indonesia increased by $20/ton [23][29]. - The price of imported needle pulp in the domestic market remained stable, and the price of imported broadleaf pulp was supported by cost and supply, with traders holding prices and waiting for real orders [31][33]. - The price of domestic broadleaf pulp increased, and the price of domestic chemical mechanical pulp remained stable [44][46]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [40]. - In November 2025, the inventory of European port pulp continued to decline, and the global pulp shipping volume also continued to decline [49]. - In October 2025, the shipment volume of W20 needle pulp was at a low level with high inventory; the inventory of broadleaf pulp was at a high level, but the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [51]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Chilean needle pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year; the export volume of four - country (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, Chile) broadleaf pulp to China decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54][61]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with needle pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and broadleaf pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [63]. 3.3.3 Demand - This week, the price of domestic offset paper remained stable, the price of copperplate paper was slightly adjusted, the price of white cardboard was stable with increased production, the price increase of household paper slowed down, and the terminal demand showed different trends in November [67][71][75][79][83]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 104,500 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous period [86]. - Overall, the port inventory was at a relatively low level within the year, and the sample inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend last week [93]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: Port inventory remained at a high level, and supply pressure persisted. As of January 4, 2026, Qingdao Port and Changshu Port had inventory accumulation during the holiday [96]. - Demand: In the downstream base paper market, the price of household paper was mainly range - bound, the overall trading atmosphere improved little, and market sentiment was cautious [96]. - View: It is expected that the market will lack a breakthrough driver in the short - term, and a weak balance will be formed by long and short factors at the current position. The market is predicted to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend within the range. Attention should be paid to the update of foreign market quotes and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [96]. - Valuation: From the perspective of basis, on the 31st, the basis of silver star needle pulp in Shandong was 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [96]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Adopt an interval operation idea [5200 - 5860]; 2) Inter - period: Observe; 3) Inter - variety: Observe [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term view: The urea market will be in a state of oscillation. The speculation in the fertilizer sector is suppressed by policies related to sulfur and phosphate fertilizers, resulting in neutral spot trading. However, due to the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak season in 2026, the 05 contract has a downside support [2]. - Medium - term view: The central price level of urea will move upwards. The fundamentals of urea have improved stage - by - stage with continuous procurement from reserves and the grassroots level. The subsequent upward momentum depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts related to urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, including the basis of different enterprises (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), 5 - 9 monthly spreads, 1 - 5 monthly spreads, 9 - 1 monthly spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts. It also shows domestic and international spot price trends of urea [5][9][16][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued. A number of enterprises added new production capacity, with a total of 664 million tons of new capacity added in 2025. Some enterprises also had device restarts and capacity replacements [24]. - **Production Plan**: The report lists the maintenance plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including the start and end dates of maintenance, raw materials, and reasons for maintenance [26]. - **Output**: Despite the production profit being around the break - even point, the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report also shows the historical trends of urea output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based urea output in China [27][28]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. The report provides cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, fluidized - bed, natural gas) of urea in Shanxi region [30]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the historical profit trends of different production processes of urea [35]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, the export policy has tightened. The report provides historical data on China's urea net import (export) volume from 2018 - 2025 [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. The demand for different crops in different regions and seasons is presented, and the high - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [46][49]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production gross profit, and inventory trends of compound fertilizers in China [53]. - **Melamine**: It presents the production gross profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate trends of melamine in China [57]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports show resilience. The report provides data on the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real estate construction and completion area [60]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. The upstream inventory accumulation pattern continues. As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from the previous week [63][66]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the historical price trends of large - granular urea FOB in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and large - granular urea CFR in Brazil [70][71][73].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：短期存在大幅上涨可能性 观点 前期燃料油市场价格小幅反弹，波动仍然较为有限。高硫方面，仅从基本面看，中东稳定的高硫出口和船燃淡季将对价格形成利空影响，但由 于假日期间美国与委内瑞拉的地缘冲突瞬间升级，鉴于委内瑞拉是全球 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short fiber: In the short term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium term, it is weak. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual output of short fiber increases, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued to hold [7]. - Bottle chips: It shows a volatile and weak trend. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual supply in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the futures margin is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high. The futures margin is on the low side [8][96]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory operating rate has increased to 98.5%. Some factories plan to shut down before the Spring Festival, mainly around the end of January [7]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are reducing their loads. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Some downstream factories may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. The short fiber is nominally destocking, but the physical inventory is accumulating. The short - fiber inventory index has risen to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [7]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Observe long spreads at low prices and intervene when the valuation is reasonable. 3) Continue to hold the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF [8]. Upstream Viewpoint Summary No relevant information provided. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is neutral; the 02 - 03 processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, also neutral [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average operating rate this week is expected to reach 82.2%. Factory operations have resumed, and new devices are being put into production. Overall operations may decline from late January [9]. - Demand: Downstream operations have increased month - on - month. The average operation rate of beverage factories has recovered to around 70%. The operation rates of the edible oil and sheet sectors have also increased month - on - month. Exports from November to December are expected to be in the range of 55 - 60 tons. Factories are destocking, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days [9]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Take profit on short spreads and consider light - position long spreads (for contracts after March). 3) No cross - variety strategy [9]. Base and Calendar Spread - The price has回调 from a high level, the base has significantly recovered, the near - term calendar spread is still affected by deliverable products, and the far - end structure is gradually strengthening [21]. Spot Price and Important Spreads - The price has been rising continuously, and the trading sentiment is fair. The average weekly quotation is 6035 yuan/ton, and the average FOB price is 795 US dollars/ton [24]. - Compared with PVC, the substitution drive is low; compared with PP and other general plastics, the cost - effectiveness is prominent, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [26][27]. Production and Operation - Since 2024, the production capacity base has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 2168 tons (CCF caliber). After the new device of Fuhai is put into production, the production capacity base will rise to 2198 tons. The bottle - chip load this week is expected to rise to 82.2% [32]. Raw Materials - PTA load is low, and the processing fee has slightly recovered; ethylene glycol load has rebounded to a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating [33][39]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton. The bottle - chip processing fee is passively compressed, and the spot processing fee is around 450 yuan/ton. The export profit is around 725 - 750 yuan/ton [44]. Inventory - The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is neutral, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days. According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 323 tons, and in December it is 344 tons [49]. Device Changes - Some devices are under maintenance, and some new devices have been put into production. Pay attention to the progress of new device implementation [55][56]. Demand - The downstream operation rate has increased month - on - month. The operation of beverage enterprises has slightly recovered, the edible oil factory operation is at a medium - to - low level, and the demand for sheet materials is neutrally supported [59][60][61]. Global Trade Flow of Bottle Chips - Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years. The downstream demand increment overseas will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. China's main bottle - chip export trade flows include China - Southeast Asia - South Asia, China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe, etc. [73]. Export Situation of Bottle Chips - In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 65.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 708.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [80]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Bottle Chips - There is a trend of inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is moderate [88]. Textile and Apparel Industry Retail - In November 2025, the retail sales of Chinese textile and apparel increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [132]. Export - In November 2025, the export of textile and apparel decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was 17491.9 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [140][144].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the domestic natural rubber futures market declined while the overseas market rose. Due to the improvement in weather in overseas main - producing areas after the holiday, the increase in supply will put pressure on raw material prices, and the cost support may weaken. Although the spot inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate and some downstream enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday, after the holiday, funds will return to the market. Affected by the external market during the holiday, with limited self - contradiction driving, it is expected that the natural rubber price will follow the overall trend of the energy and chemical sector and fluctuate slightly stronger [9][102]. - Valuation: The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR remained stable at 2980 yuan/ton, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU decreased by 65 yuan/ton. Investment strategies include waiting and seeing for RU in the unilateral aspect, waiting for opportunities to short at high prices; observing in the inter - period and cross - variety aspects [103]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and the total exports to China decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [5]. - On December 31, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued the implementation rules for the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy, expanding the scope of support compared with 2025 [6]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the total exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year [7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber futures market declined, while the overseas market rose. For example, the closing price of RU2605 decreased by 1.11% compared with the previous period, and the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 increased by 0.17% [9][11]. Price Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis of whole milk - RU05 increased by 26.04% compared with the previous period, and the 05 - 09 calendar spread increased by 100.00% compared with the previous period [12]. Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SICOM TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased [16]. - This week, most rubber spot prices declined, and futures prices declined more, resulting in a stronger basis [20]. - The spread between whole milk and Thai mixed rubber and the spread between 3L and Thai mixed rubber widened [23]. Substitute Prices - The price of butadiene at the raw material end of butadiene rubber continued to rise, providing obvious bottom support for the short - term market price, and most spot offers maintained a firm price and tried to sell [29]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of RU and NR both decreased. For example, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased by 16.46% compared with the previous period, and the settled funds decreased by 11.80% [32][34]. Fundamental Data Supply - Weather in Thai producing areas: The rainy season in southern Thailand is gradually coming to an end with decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period [37]. - Weather in domestic producing areas: The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan producing areas have basically ended [39]. - Raw material prices: Due to the easing of overseas geopolitical tensions, raw material prices declined. For example, the price of cup lump in the Hat Yai market in Songkhla Province, Thailand, decreased by 2.54% compared with the previous period [41][43]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between water and cup in Thailand widened, the spread between Hainan glue going into the concentrated latex factory and going into the whole milk factory was stable, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping [45]. - Upstream processing profit: As raw material prices declined, the rubber processing profit in Thailand generally improved. For example, the production profit of Thai standard rubber increased by 18.53% compared with the previous period [48][50]. - Delivery profit: The delivery profit in Hainan decreased, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so the data update was suspended [53]. - Thai exports: In November, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports and a decrease in the exports of smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber [60]. - Thai exports to China: In November, the quantity of Thailand's natural rubber exports to China decreased month - on - month, with an increase in the exports of latex, smoked sheets, and standard rubber and a decrease in mixed rubber [63]. - Indonesian exports: In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month due to a large decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month [66]. - Vietnamese exports: In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. The exports to China increased seasonally, with large increases in standard rubber and latex exports [72]. - Ivorian exports: In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the quantity of exports to China decreased significantly month - on - month [74]. - Rubber imports: In November, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber) were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76%. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Ivorian standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased year - on - year [78]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday, mostly for 3 - 5 days, and most enterprises maintain normal production. Tire inventory continued to accumulate last week (the current data has not been updated) [81]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In November, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month with a higher growth rate, passenger car sales continued to grow but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline, and tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [84]. - Road transport turnover: In November, the road freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [88]. Inventory - Spot inventory: The current natural rubber inventory in China continued to accumulate seasonally. Qingdao's inventory increased, and the increase rate of the increase in light - colored rubber inventory compared with the previous period weakened [94][96]. - Futures inventory: The natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the 20 - rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai International Energy Exchange both increased to some extent. For example, the natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7.09% compared with the previous week [99].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of pure benzene (BZ) and styrene (EB) is high, at the upper end of the range, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities starting next week [2][77]. - In the short - term, the market valuation is high. After the New Year's Day holiday, due to the geopolitical risks in crude oil, it is expected that crude oil will open higher on Monday. After the high opening, there are opportunities for short - selling. Currently, BZ is at the upper end of the range, and EB's valuation is significantly high, with the risk - free arbitrage window open [2][77]. - In the medium - term, PX - BZ should take short - term profit, the overseas gasoline blending drive is weakening, and the domestic chemical fundamentals maintain high inventory pressure. The PX market is overvalued as a whole, leading some downstream factories to sell raw materials and register a large number of 03 - contracts. The aromatics leading varieties are weakening [2][77]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Pure Benzene Domestic**: In December 2025, 110,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and it is expected to remain at 110,000 tons in January 2026. Some Shandong refineries will increase their loads after solving the quota problem. In January, attention should be paid to the increase in pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang project [2][75]. - **Pure Benzene Import**: The external market pressure is still high, and the selling pressure of South Korean pure benzene was high from November to December 2025. The imports are expected to remain at around 4.5 million tons in January 2026, and the imports after February are to be evaluated [2][75]. - **Styrene**: In December 2025, 85,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January 2026. After December, the plant operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the increase in production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's plant [2][75]. - **Caprolactam (CPL)**: The negative feedback of CPL has started, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. It is expected that 40,000 tons of capacity will be under maintenance in December 2025 and 60,000 tons in January 2026 [2][75]. - **Phenol**: The operation is gradually picking up. In December 2025, 30,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and 10,000 tons in January 2026. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new plant may be postponed [2][75]. - **Aniline**: In December 2025, 70,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January 2026 may be lower than expected [2][76]. Demand - **Styrene Downstream 3S Hard Rubber**: Terminal household appliances are gradually entering the year - end procurement season, and demand has slightly improved. However, 3S still faces high inventory problems [2][76]. - **Caprolactam**: In December 2025, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project, and in January 2026, attention should be paid to the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei. Attention should be paid to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the plant [2][75]. Valuation - **Absolute Price Valuation**: Based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,300 - 5,500 yuan/ton [2][77]. - **EB Processing Fee**: The processing fee is expected to expand in the short - term [2][77]. Strategy - **Single - Side**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for BZ [2][77]. - **Cross - Period**: Not provided currently [77]. - **Cross - Variety**: Take short - term profit on PX - BZ [2][77].

Report Information - Report Name: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact Person: Zhao Shucen [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views LPG - Geopolitical factors disrupt costs, and attention is paid to the realization of downward drivers. The market is relatively stable during holidays, with the internal PG fluctuating and consolidating. After the holiday, the high opening of the January CP official price boosts market sentiment, but the coexistence of supply return and weakening chemical demand expectations remains, and the loose pattern remains unchanged. The market price rises and then falls. In the future, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the holiday is expected to disrupt the cost-side crude oil in the short term, and the increase in the January CP will support the propane trend. However, high prices suppress buying interest, the actual import cost support is limited, and the supply pressure remains. Meanwhile, the current chemical profit is at a low level, there are many PDH maintenance plans in the first quarter, the economic efficiency of cracking propane feedstock is insufficient, and the procurement increment is limited, so the downward driver is gradually emerging. [4][5] Propylene - There is limited upward and downward driving force, and the spot price trend stabilizes. Next week, there will be a mix of start-ups and shutdowns in terms of supply, and the demand side is expected to increase. Overall, propylene lacks obvious trend guidance and is expected to remain volatile and stable in the short term. However, the high opening of CP further compresses the profit of PDH devices, and attention should be paid to the realization of the expected increase in unexpectedly shut-down devices in the first quarter. [8] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis show regional differentiation in civil use trends, and import costs are relatively firm. The prices of propane in the international market show a certain degree of fluctuation, and the spot premium has significantly declined. [11] - The domestic LPG market price shows a pattern of strong performance in South China and stable performance in East China and Shandong. [15] - The regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates show that the CP official price opens high, but the premium falls. [23] - The propane price has declined month-on-month. [32] Supply - The US LPG shipment volume to Asia has increased month-on-month, while the Canadian LPG shipment volume remains relatively stable. The Middle East LPG shipment volume is tight in the spot market, and the shipments are delayed. The total LPG commodity volume in China has increased slightly, and the propane commodity volume has decreased in terms of import arrivals. [42][48][49][64][76] Demand & Inventory - In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate has increased, while the MTBE operating rate has decreased. The domestic LPG refinery inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, with limited month-on-month changes. The civil LPG refinery inventory has changed little month-on-month. The LPG terminal import inventory has significantly decreased month-on-month due to lower-than-expected arrivals. [80][82][90][99] Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, the cost-side propane first declines and then rises, while the propylene price remains stable. The prices of some downstream products of propylene have improved, and the profit of powder materials has improved. The international/US dollar price of propylene remains flat month-on-month, and the domestic price trend remains stable. [111][113][115][123] Balance Sheet - In the propylene industry chain, the PDH operating rate has increased month-on-month; the powder material operating rate has further declined, while the butanol and octanol operating rates have significantly increased. The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions show certain changes, and the inventory has also changed accordingly. [135][138][144][150][155][157][162] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.0% (+0.9%). The refinery/main operating rate remains at 75%, and the local refinery operating rate is 56%. The ethylene cracking operating rate is 82.8% (-0.4%), and the cracking profit center has slightly improved month-on-month. The PDH capacity utilization rate is 76.4% (+1.4%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 87.8% (-1.7%). [167][169][179][184][189] Demand - The downstream PP capacity utilization rate is 76.9% (-2.5%), and the profit has stopped falling and slightly recovered month-on-month. The PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37.6% (+0.7%), and the spread between powder materials and propylene has continued to recover, with some devices returning. The PO capacity utilization rate is 74.1% (-2.0%), and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly further. The acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 80.3% (-0.3%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+0.4%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The n-butanol capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+2.1%), and the profit has increased significantly month-on-month. The octanol capacity utilization rate is 85.0% (+3.0%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The phenol-ketone capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+2.5%), and the profit has increased slightly month-on-month. The ECH capacity utilization rate is 50.82% (+2.39%), and the price and profit have both increased month-on-month. [203][208][221][230][235][243][251][254][264][266][273] Downstream Inventory - The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed slightly. The inventory of PP powder materials has also changed slightly. The inventory of acrylonitrile factories and ports remains stable, while the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port has decreased. [277][288][290]