期指：情绪驱动为主，仍有回升可能 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 9 月 5 日 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4365.21 | ↓2.12 | | 7731.2 | | | | | | IF2509 | 4349.4 | ↓1.88 | -15.81 | 1756.1 | 133914 | ↑13214 | 144443 | ↑6959 | | IF2510 | 4342 | ↓1.92 | -23.21 | 107.5 | 8218 | ↑48 | 12645 | ↑915 | | IF2512 | 4322.8 | ↓1.84 | -42.41 | 748.3 | 57395 | ↑4826 | 103693 | ↑3261 | | IF2603 | 4302 | ↓1.81 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Weak operation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, inventories, and corporate profitability [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum and aluminum alloy are neutral, while that of alumina is weak [3]. Directory Summaries Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,605, down 105 from the previous trading day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,590, down 24. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,980, down 12. The trading volume and open interest showed significant changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,215, down 70. The trading volume and open interest also changed [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,600 tons. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,990.62, with a slight decline [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,188, down 16. The alumina prices at ports and from overseas also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The ADC12 theoretical profit was 373, and the prices of related products and the inventory of three regions changed [1]. Other Information - The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. The index in August was 52, higher than the expected 51 [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 negative spread trading. Go long on dips before mid - September [6][7] - PTA: Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading for the month spread, and long PTA short PX for the processing fee [7] - MEG: 1 - 5 month spread may be strong, and the unilateral price has limited downside [7] 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to the expected increase in OPEC+ production, crude oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days, weakening PX valuation, but the downside of PX's unilateral price is limited. PTA follows the decline of crude oil prices. MEG's valuation drops as coal and crude oil prices fall, but its supply - demand remains tight in September [6][7] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On September 4th, Asian paraxylene prices dropped significantly due to falling oil prices and the pressure of PTA over - capacity. Crude oil futures continued to decline as investors anticipated a possible increase in OPEC+ production. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on September 7th to determine October's production level [3][4] Fundamental Data - **PX**: On September 4th, Platts' assessment of Asian paraxylene CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea was 828 and 807 dollars/ton respectively, down 15 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha spread was 251.29 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars/ton [2][3] - **PTA**: As of Thursday, PTA load was 72.8%. The PTA processing fee was 188.78 yuan/ton, down 32.89 yuan/ton [2][5] - **MEG**: As of September 4th, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 74.12% (down 1.01% from the previous period). The operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 74.68% (down 3.06% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 91%. The overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75% [5] Sales Volume - On September 4th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 3 - 40%. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 39% [6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1; PTA trend intensity: - 1; MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the sentiment for gold is cooling, and silver is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The trend strength for both gold and silver is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 closed at 814.88 with a daily increase of 1.31% and a night - session close of 821.68 with a 1.40% increase; Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3619.70 with a 0.56% increase [2]. - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9820 with a - 0.04% decrease and a night - session close of 9918.00 with a 1.34% increase; Comex Silver 2510 closed at 41.810 with a 0.19% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: - Gold: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 contract against 2512 contract was 265,502, an increase of 66,450 from the previous day; the position was 142,330, an increase of 3,706 [2]. - Silver: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 627,101, an increase of 79,159 from the previous day; the position was 270,592, a decrease of 12,126 [2]. - **ETF and Inventory Data**: - ETF: SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 984.26, a decrease of 6 from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Gold inventory was 40,251 kg, an increase of 60 kg from the previous day; Shanghai Silver inventory was 1,227,039 kg, an increase of 11,811 kg [2]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost Data**: - Gold: The spread between Gold T + D and AU251 was - 4.91, unchanged from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Gold and selling June Shanghai Gold for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 0.87 to 4.77 [2]. - Silver: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 was 24, an increase of 1 from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Silver and selling June Shanghai Silver for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 11.3 to 73.41 [2]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: - The US dollar index was 98.16, a decrease of 0.16%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.15, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US economic data shows mixed signals: The ISM services index expansion speed reached a six - month high, but employment was weak; ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 237,000, the highest since June; the trade deficit widened to a four - month high due to a surge in imports [2][5]. - Fed's stance: The Fed's third - in - command said that gradual interest rate cuts were appropriate, while a voting member for next year reiterated that they did not support a rate cut in September [5]. - Other news: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed governor Cook; Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing a maximum 15% tariff on most Japanese products; Nasdaq tightened regulations on cryptocurrency concept stocks and small - cap stocks [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength for gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on September 5, 2025, including whether they will be in a state of shock consolidation, weak shock, strong shock, or wide - range shock, and also gives the corresponding support and resistance levels [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Futures Index: On September 5, 2025, it is expected to move in a shock - consolidation pattern. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4383 and 4441 points, and support levels at 4306 and 4279 points [2]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The T2512 contract is likely to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 108.30 and 108.43 yuan, and support levels at 108.17 and 108.10 yuan [3]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The TL2512 contract is expected to show a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 117.9 and 118.2 yuan, and support levels at 117.2 and 116.8 yuan [3]. - Gold Futures: The AU2510 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 818.8 and 823.2 yuan/gram, and support levels at 811.2 and 806.2 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver Futures: The AG2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 9685 and 9600 yuan/kilogram, and resistance levels at 9851 and 9965 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Copper Futures: The CU2510 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 79500 and 79400 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 80000 and 80100 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Futures: The AL2510 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 20730 and 20770 yuan/ton, and support levels at 20590 and 20500 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina Futures: The AO2601 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend and will test the support levels at 2950 and 2919 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2989 and 3008 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc Futures: The ZN2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 22000 and 21960 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 22160 and 22230 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon Futures: The PS2511 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 53000 and 53700 yuan/ton, and support levels at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton [4]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The LC2511 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 74800 and 75800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 72000 and 71300 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar Futures: The RB2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3101 and 3080 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3135 and 3150 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The HC2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3292 and 3275 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3335 and 3355 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron Ore Futures: The I2601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 795 and 800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 777 and 771 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal Futures: The JM2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 1120 and 1138 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1090 and 1075 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass Futures: The FG601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1125 and 1106 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1152 and 1174 yuan/ton [5]. - Soda Ash Futures: The SA601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1255 and 1240 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1290 and 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - Crude Oil Futures: The SC2510 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 478 and 473 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 488 and 490 yuan/barrel [5]. - Methanol Futures: The MA601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 2409 and 2423 yuan/ton, with support levels at 2378 and 2372 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean Meal Futures: The M2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 3066 and 3081 yuan/ton, and support levels at 3039 and 3027 yuan/ton [5]. - Natural Rubber Futures: The RU2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 16170 and 16230 yuan/ton, with support levels at 15880 and 15750 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - International events include the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong - un, the US - Japan trade agreement implementation, and the US government's actions against a Norwegian sovereign wealth fund [7][8][9]. - Domestic policies involve the release of a sports industry development plan, a plan to stabilize the electronic information manufacturing industry, and a support plan for female scientific and technological talents [7][8]. - Central bank operations: The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on September 5, 2025 [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Precious Metals: On September 4, 2025, international precious - metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce [10]. - Crude Oil: On September 4, 2025, due to OPEC's expected production increase, US crude oil futures fell 0.98% to $63.34 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.07% to $66.88 per barrel [10]. - Base Metals: On September 4, 2025, London base metals closed lower across the board. For example, LME aluminum futures fell 1.11% to $2590.00 per ton, and LME copper futures fell 0.84% to $9891.50 per ton [11]. - Exchange Rates: On September 4, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1402, up 66 basis points, and the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 98.28 [11]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Futures Index: On September 4, 2025, major futures index contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 generally showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [11][12][13]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On September 4, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year T2512 contract and the thirty - year TL2512 contract both showed a rebound trend [32][35]. - Gold Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, but the medium - and short - term upward space has further opened up [39]. - Silver Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AG2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the long - term and short - term upward trends are obvious [46]. - Copper Futures: On September 4, 2025, the CU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term upward momentum weakened [51]. - Aluminum Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AL2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [55]. - Alumina Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AO2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [58]. - Zinc Futures: On September 4, 2025, the ZN2510 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [63]. ， the PS2511 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was weak [67]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On September 4, 2025, the LC2511 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and stabilized [69]. - Rebar Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RB2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and rebounded slightly [75]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the HC2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [78]. - Iron Ore Futures: On September 4, 2025, the I2601 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound strongly [82]. - Coking Coal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the JM2601 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [87]. - Glass Futures: On September 4, 2025, the FG601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [92]. - Soda Ash Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SA601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was obviously weak [97]. - Crude Oil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SC2510 contract showed a weak - shock downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased significantly [101]. - Methanol Futures: On September 4, 2025, the MA601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [105]. - Soybean Meal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the M2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term rebound momentum weakened [108]. - Natural Rubber Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RU2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [110].

2025年09月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面逻辑窄幅震荡，消息面刺激情绪 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：钢价窄幅震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：产量增长，偏弱运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高布空思路为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注政策端信息 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 5 日 【宏观及行业新闻】 镍：基本面逻辑窄幅震荡，消息面刺激情绪 不锈钢：钢价窄幅震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,850 | -940 | -140 | 1,020 | -60 | -1,740 | | 期 | | 不 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The report focuses on iron ore, suggesting that carbon elements transfer profits and the ore price will fluctuate at a high level [1]. 2. Fundamental Tracking Futures - The closing price of iron ore futures was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton or 1.87% [1]. - The position of contract 12601 was 506,983 lots, with an increase of 41,053 lots [1]. Spot Prices - Imported ore: The price of Carajás fines (65%) was 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 785 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 752 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic ore: The price of Langna ore (66%) was 931 yuan/ton, unchanged; Laiwu ore (65%) was 849 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Spreads - The basis of contract 12601 against Super Special fines was 105.2 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton; against Jinbuba fines was 42.4 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread between 12509 - 12601 was 39.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton; between 12601 - 12605 was 24 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The price difference between Carajás fines - PB fines was 115 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB fines - Jinbuba fines was 33 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; PB fines - Super Special fines was 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3. Macro and Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reduction of internal and external lead inventories supports the price of lead [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Shanghai lead main contract closing price was 16,860 yuan/ton, down 0.03%; LME lead 3M electronic trading closing price was 1,994.5 dollars/ton, down 0.20% [1] - Shanghai lead main contract trading volume was 25,910 lots, a decrease of 4,432 lots; LME lead trading volume was 3,791 lots, a decrease of 1,768 lots [1] - Shanghai lead main contract open interest was 50,042 lots, a decrease of 596 lots; LME lead open interest was 158,193 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots [1] - Shanghai 1 lead premium/discount was -35 yuan/ton, an increase of 15; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -43.09 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.59 [1] - PB00 - PB01 was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; import premium/discount was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Lead ingot spot import profit and loss was -531.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72; Shanghai lead continuous - three import profit and loss was -561.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.74 [1] - Shanghai lead futures inventory was 55,044 tons, a decrease of 830 tons; LME lead inventory was 251,200 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons [1] - Scrap electric vehicle battery price was 10,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME lead cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons, a decrease of 3,325 tons [1] - Recycled refined lead price was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25; recycled lead comprehensive profit and loss was -331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 [1] 2. News - Weak US JOLTS job vacancy data strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller said that interest rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [1] - Trump reiterated that tariffs could replace income tax, and the US was reported to threaten with tariffs and oppose the UN shipping emission agreement [1] 3. Lead Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral stance [1]

商 品 研 2025 年 09 月 05 日 铜：美联储降息预期，限制价格回落 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,770 | -0.42% | 79650 | -0.15% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,892 | -0.83% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 77,199 | -21,772 | 184,021 | -8,088 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 14,228 | -7,269 | 286,000 | 5,161 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 19,829 | 358 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 158,375 | -200 | 10.17% | 1.64 ...

2025 年 09 月 05 日 锌：累库持续 【新闻】 1. 美国 8 月 ADP 就业增长大幅放缓至 5.4 万人，强化美联储降息预期。美国 8 月 ADP 就业人数增加 5.4 万人，大幅低于市场预期的 6.8 万人，也较 7 月修正后的 10.4 万增幅明显放缓。该报告与近期显示劳动 力市场正逐步降温的其他指标相符，包括职位空缺减少、薪资增长放缓等。数据发布后，市场定价显示美联 储降息的可能性已高达 97%。（华尔街见闻） 2. 进口激增，美国贸易逆差扩大至四个月来最大。美国 7 月份商品和服务贸易逆差较前月扩大近 33%， 至 783 亿美元，为四个月高点。7 月进口值增长 5.9%，创今年年初以来最大增幅，而出口小幅上升。企业赶 在关税生效前的"囤货潮"是推动此次进口激增的核心原因。（华尔街见闻） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 ...