Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to opportunistically take short positions in light crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends of international crude oil futures and the arbitrage situations of various crude oil varieties in different regions, and also provides key market news [1][2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil Price Trends - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.37 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, to $58.38 per barrel; ICE Brent oil futures contract 02 rose by $0.31 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%, to $62.38 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up by $0.60 per barrel, a gain of 0.14%, to $442.30 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami and other crude oils are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces; Forties crude in the North Sea, Saudi Extra Light, Saharan Blend and Urals crude present arbitrage opportunities; Cabinda crude in Angola lacks competitiveness [2][4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH crude oil in the US is close to balance but slightly negative; Eagle Ford shale oil in the US has competitiveness in the Northwest European market; the arbitrage window of Azeri Light crude oil is closed; Saharan Blend crude oil in Algeria has strong competitiveness; Bonny Light crude oil in Nigeria is close to full balance [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk and Eagle Ford crude oils are deeply closed, lacking competitiveness compared with Urals crude oil [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Dubai and Bonny Light crude oils are negative or close to the break - even point; WTI MEH crude oil in the US almost reaches the break - even point; Eagle Ford crude oil presents an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +$1.16 per barrel [8][9] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventories increased in the week ending December 19; Libya's new round of oil block tenders attracted global energy companies, but political instability and infrastructure challenges need to be solved; Nigeria's four major crude oil grades' average daily export volume in February is expected to increase; the monthly rate of US durable goods orders in October decreased; US President Trump pressured Venezuelan President Maduro and threatened to keep the oil on seized tankers [9][10][11] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp and paper industry is undergoing significant structural changes, with broadleaf pulp gradually seizing market share from softwood pulp, and the industry is facing challenges such as overcapacity and compressed downstream profits [50][52][59] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Mill Capacity: Is It in the Clearance Stage? - **Market Structure of Commodity Pulp**: Global commodity pulp capacity is dominated by broadleaf pulp, accounting for about 50%, followed by softwood pulp at about 20%. Suzano, APP, and UPM are major players [5] - **Pulp Production Cost Curve**: The average cash cost of BHKP is 289 dollars/ton for 70% of the capacity, and the CIF China break - even point (excluding logistics) is 580 - 600 dollars/ton for 70% - 75% of the capacity. For BSKP, the average cash cost is 500 dollars/ton for 41% of the capacity, and the CIF China break - even point (excluding logistics) is 445 - 465 dollars/ton for 85% - 90% of the capacity [8] - **Company Performance Analysis** - **SUZANO**: In 25Q1 - Q3, revenue was 37 billion reais, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Operating cost was 24.8 billion reais, a year - on - year increase of 33%. Operating profit was 7.5 billion reais, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Net profit rebounded significantly mainly due to less derivative losses last year. Pulp revenue accounts for about 80% of the company's revenue [10][13] - **ARAUCO**: Q3 revenue was 1.5 billion dollars, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1%. Gross profit was 350 million dollars, with a gross profit margin of 23%. The company has been unprofitable since 2025, and Q3 net profit after non - recurring items was underwater. Pulp business EBITDA Margin is about 26.5% [22] - **Metsa Group**: Sales revenue increased, but profit reached a new low. In Q3, the operating profit margin was - 12%. Pulp sales continued to rise [26] - **Mercer**: In 25Q3, revenue was 458 million dollars, flat quarter - on - quarter. Gross profit was negative for two consecutive quarters. Net profit after non - recurring items was - 81 million dollars, the lowest since 2023. There was no substantial production cut [29][31][33] - **UPM**: Revenue continued to decline, with about 2.3 billion euros in 25Q3. Q3 gross profit margin was only 0.3%. Net profit was 18 million euros, with a net profit margin of 0.8%. ROCE in Q3 was 2.4%, the lowest in nearly two years [37][39][42] - **Solvency Analysis**: Most pulp mill asset - liability ratios are below 60%. As of Q3 2025, Mercer's asset - liability ratio was about 68.1%, and Suzano's was 60.7%. Most pulp mills' EBIT interest coverage ratios are above 1, but Arauco's was 0.36 and Mercer's was - 2.37 as of Q3 [45] 3.2 What Structural Changes Are Taking Place Currently? - **Difference between Softwood and Broadleaf Pulp Prices**: The price difference between softwood and broadleaf pulp has been widening. Broadleaf pulp capacity growth is faster than that of softwood pulp, and broadleaf pulp is gradually seizing market share from softwood pulp. The global consumption of commodity pulp is 67.7 million tons, of which about 64.6% is broadleaf pulp [50][52][53] - **Consumption Situation in Europe**: European softwood pulp monthly consumption is stable at 20 - 25 tons, far from recovering to the pre - energy - crisis level. European broadleaf pulp monthly consumption is above 50 tons and has returned to normal [55] - **Apparent Consumption and Paper Formula Adjustment**: Softwood pulp monthly apparent consumption is maintained at 60 - 80 tons, while broadleaf pulp monthly apparent consumption has increased from about 140 tons to 180 tons. The proportion of toilet paper and white cardboard has increased to about 35%, and the proportion of cultural paper has decreased. The pulp formula of toilet paper and double - glue paper has been deeply adjusted [58] - **Profit and Capacity Expansion of Finished Paper**: Downstream profits are continuously compressed, and the apparent profit per ton of many finished papers has turned negative. From 2025 to 2026, a large amount of new paper - making capacity is planned to be put into production, mainly in toilet paper, cultural paper, and white cardboard [59] - **Industrial Chain Inventory**: As of November, European softwood pulp inventory was 27 days, and broadleaf pulp inventory was 26 days. Pulp mill softwood pulp inventory days reached 48 days, a historical high for the same period, and broadleaf pulp inventory days were 45 days, flat month - on - month. Domestic pulp inventory has started to decline, with a structural surplus of softwood pulp [62] - **Stable Growth of Broadleaf Pulp Consumption**: The natural demand for BHKP may increase to 459,000 tons, with a CAGR of + 2.1%. Emerging markets contribute the main increment, and toilet paper and specialty paper are the main drivers [64] 3.3 Future Development Trends of the Pulp and Paper Industry Chain - **Industry Status**: The cumulative revenue of the paper - making industry was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. The profit was 31.22 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The industry loss area exceeded 30%, and the cumulative loss of loss - making enterprises reached 16.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10%, the highest in the same period in history. The SW paper - making industry index had a revenue of 125.7 billion yuan in 2025Q1 - Q3, a year - on - year decrease of 12%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 1.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 138%. The asset - liability ratio of listed paper enterprises exceeded 60%, and the current ratio and quick ratio fell below 1 [68][71] - **Integration of Forest, Pulp, and Paper**: Leading paper enterprises are implementing pulp - paper integration strategies, and some enterprises have a high degree of forest - pulp - paper integration. Domestic wood pulp consumption has increased from 9.5 million tons in 2015 to 26 million tons in 2024, and imported wood pulp has increased from 17.57 million tons to 25.95 million tons. The proportion of domestic wood pulp has increased from less than one - third to 50% [76] - **Integration Project Commissioning**: From 2025 to 2029, about 4.6 million tons of self - used BHKP capacity will be put into production in China. It is expected that the output of major wood - pulp - based finished papers will increase by 2.58 million tons in 2029, and self - used pulp will crowd out 2.66 million tons of commercial pulp demand for these paper types [80] - **Supply - Demand Changes of Commercial Pulp**: BHKP commercial pulp capacity will increase from 46.5 million tons to 50.5 million tons from 2024 to 2029E. Although demand continues to grow, capacity utilization will decline due to new capacity. The commissioning of integrated capacity is expected to reduce the demand for broadleaf commercial pulp by 4.4 million tons from 2024 to 2029 [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CEA's main target has achieved six consecutive positive days. The average price of the listed agreement has increased by about 1.6%, and the intraday trading volume has increased by about 53%. The listed volume is 50.3 tons, and the large - scale volume is 202.2 tons. The listed agreement trading volume of CCER is 0.01 tons, and the average transaction price is 63.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 20.25% [4]. - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation allowances are basically released, the upward momentum begins to accumulate, and the carbon price may enter a stage of trend recovery [4]. - The basic carry - over allowances of the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries have increased to 100,000 tons. However, due to the limited allowance gap (within 3%) of most enterprises in 2025, the actual procurement enthusiasm may be lower than expected [5]. - Recently, some newly included industry enterprises have successively started basic carry - over procurement. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stand firm above 70 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 CEA Market Information - **Price and Change**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 61.00, 64.00, 61.05, 64.00, and 67.56 yuan/ton respectively, with daily price changes of 0.00%, 0.66%, 0.08%, 4.92%, and 3.26%. The price differences between new and old allowances are 3.00, - 2.95, 2.95, and 3.56 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Transaction Volume**: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 3.63, 11.60, 20.19, 18.05, and 199.00 tons respectively. The listed agreement trading volumes are 3.63, 0.25, 4.00, 1.38, and 41.05 tons respectively, and the large - scale agreement trading volumes are 0.00, 11.35, 16.19, 16.67, and 157.95 tons respectively [7][8]. - **Transaction Amount**: The total transaction amounts of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 714.97, 221.36, 1241.11, 1138.54, and 12074.46 ten - thousand yuan respectively [8]. 3.2 CCER Market Information - The average transaction price of CCER is 63.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 20.25%. The trading volume is 0.01 tons, the transaction amount is 0.63 ten - thousand yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 860.83 tons [9].

目录 CONTENTS 01 AI浪潮来袭，撬动有色 需求的下一个支点？ 算力金属：铜铝在AI电力上 的应用前景展望 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 杨 蕤 （联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 yangrui4@gtht.com 日期：2025年12月23日 03 全球数据中心市场发展 概况 02 AI算力中心对铜铝需求 影响 04 美国电力缺口测算与金 属需求分析 AI浪潮来袭，撬动有色需求 01 的下一个支点？ 当下AI商业化行至何处？ 2003年-2024年按地理区域划分的人工智能模型数量 中国AI大模型性能已追赶上美国，中美差距不断缩小 资料来源：Epoch AI，《2025年人工智能指数报告》，Artificial Analysis，国泰君安期货研 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on December 23, 2025. For example, most equity index futures are expected to be strongly volatile, while some bond futures are expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures on December 22, 2025, including price movements, highs, lows, and the impact of key price levels and moving averages. It also provides expectations for the December 2025 and December 23, 2025 trends of each futures contract [11][36][42]. - The report presents a series of macro - economic and policy news, such as the LPR remaining unchanged, central economic work conference arrangements, and regulatory policy adjustments, which are expected to have an impact on the futures market [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Equity Index Futures**: On December 23, 2025, IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to be strongly volatile, with specific resistance and support levels provided. In December 2025, these contracts are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][17][18]. - **Bond Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the ten - year bond futures T2603 and thirty - year bond futures TL2603 are expected to be weakly volatile. In December 2025, the overall bond market is expected to be weak [39][40]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: On December 23, 2025, gold (AU2602), silver (AG2602), platinum (PT2606), and palladium (PD2606) futures are expected to be strongly volatile and may reach new highs. In December 2025, they are also expected to perform strongly [2][42][51]. - **Base Metals Futures**: On December 23, 2025, copper (CU2602) is expected to oscillate and consolidate, aluminum (AL2602) is expected to be weakly volatile, and other base metals futures also have corresponding trend expectations. In December 2025, different base metals futures have different trends, with some expected to be strongly volatile and others weakly volatile [2][61][67]. - **Other Futures**: Other futures such as alumina, nickel, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, etc., also have specific trend expectations for December 23, 2025, and December 2025 [72][77][80]. Macro - economic News and Policy - **Macroeconomic News**: The State Council is conducting research on the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline draft, the 12 - month LPR remains unchanged, and the central economic work conference has deployed multiple key reform tasks [3][5]. - **Policy News**: The draft of the Nursery Service Law is being reviewed, the Banking Supervision and Administration Law is being revised, and the market supervision department has issued regulations on the quality and safety of online - sold industrial products [6]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has taken measures to cool the silver futures market, adjusting trading fees and limiting the maximum number of intraday opening positions [8]. - On December 22, 2025, international precious metals futures generally rose, oil futures prices increased due to supply concerns, and London base metals showed mixed trends [9][10].

Report Summary of Futures Market Analysis 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Do not chase highs, expect a high-level volatile market [1] - PTA: Do not chase highs, expect a high-level volatile market [1] - MEG: Trend is weakening [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Short-term rapid increase in PX, focus on the turning point of downstream polyester operating load. Do not chase highs in the short term [9]. - PTA: Do not chase highs in the short term, go long on PTA and short on PF/PR. Yisheng Ningbo plant restarts as planned. Fuhai's new bottle chip plant goes into production. Do not chase highs in the short term [9]. - MEG: Unilateral market is oscillating, and the medium-term trend remains weak. Although the price of 3,600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, the domestic ethylene glycol facilities are still resilient, and the operating rate has rebounded to 72%. Huayi 20 restarts this week. Polyester operating rate remains at 91.2% this week, and the restart of plants such as Sanfangxiang and China Resources Zhuhai will boost the load next week. Overall, if the polyester load decreases due to profit pressure, the supply-demand pressure of MEG will continue to rise, so it is difficult for ethylene glycol to rise in the medium term [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Quotes - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7,258, 5,040, 3,735, 6,432, and 437.9 respectively, with changes of 188, 158, -3, 140, and 11.3, and percentage changes of 2.66%, 3.24%, -0.08%, 2.23%, and 2.65% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $893/ton, 4,882 yuan/ton, 3,615 yuan/ton, $539.88/ton, and $62.45/barrel respectively, with changes of $26, 117 yuan, -10 yuan, $9, and $1.29 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: The previous day's processing fees for PX - naphtha, PTA, staple fiber, bottle chips, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 335.45, 150.47, 221.69, 40.59, and -4.23 respectively, with changes of 30.34, -28.15, -24.11, -61.21, and 0.11 [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: On December 22, the PX price rose sharply. Two February Asian spot transactions were at 893 and 891, and three March Asian spot transactions were all at 893. The PX valuation on December 22 was $892/ton, up $26 from last Friday. The Asian xylene price further rose to a multi - month high, approaching $900/ton [3]. - **PTA**: A 2.2 million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th, which was shut down for maintenance in mid - November [6]. - **MEG**: A 200,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan is restarting, which was shut down for maintenance in late November. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has restarted normally, which was shut down in early December. The MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China is about 716,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period [6][7]. - **Polyester**: Fuhai Packaging Materials Co., Ltd.'s new 300,000 - ton/year polyester bottle chip plant has produced high - quality products. On December 22, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were sluggish, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 35%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was generally weak, with an estimated average of 40% - 50% by 3:30 pm [7][8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight US soybeans closed higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound and fluctuate; the soybean futures are expected to be volatile [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4105 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.51%, and 4110 yuan/ton during the night session, up 21 yuan; DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2741 yuan/ton during the day session, up 6 yuan (+0.22%), and 2738 yuan/ton during the night session, down 2 yuan (-0.07%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1064 cents/bushel, up 4.5 cents (+0.42%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 301.7 dollars/short ton, up 0.4 dollars (+0.13%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of soybean meal (43%) in different regions had different changes compared with the previous day, with the range from -10 to +30 yuan/ton; the spot basis was M2605 + 360, down 10 yuan compared with the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 14.03 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 11.48 million tons two trading days ago; the inventory was 100.92 million tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 22, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to China's soybean purchases, rising crude oil prices, and a weaker US dollar. Although the Brazilian soybean production is expected to be bumper this year and traders are still skeptical about China's purchase speed under the Sino - US bilateral trade truce agreement, the year - end bulk purchases in the agricultural product market supported the soybean futures. The US Department of Agriculture announced that private exporters sold 39.6 million tons of soybeans to China, with 33 million tons to be delivered this year and the rest in 2026/27 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts of the day session on the reporting day [3].

2025 年 12 月 23 日 铂：内外共振，多头情绪暂未消减 钯： 攀升节奏放缓，震荡上行 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 568. 45 | | 6. 54% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 533. 57 | | 4. 28% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | 2148. 90 | | 6. 59% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | 2106. 70 | | 7.61% | | | | 铝金期货2606 | 508. 45 | | 5. 88% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 430. 00 | | 0.00% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连 | 1,860.50 | | 3.62% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | 1.766.00 | | 3.15% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 广铂 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 23 日 螺纹钢：宽度震荡 热轧卷板：宽度震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,126 | 12 | 0.39 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,277 | 9 | 0.28 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 842,412 | 1,591,974 | 23,108 | | | HC2605 | 344,532 | 1,188,551 | -2,627 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3300 | 3300 | 0 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3330 ...

2025 年 12 月 23 日 短纤：短期跟涨原料，加工费压缩 20251223 瓶片：短期跟涨原料 20251223 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6418 | 6286 | 132 | PF01-02 | -14 | -6 | -8 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6432 | 6292 | 140 | PF02-03 | 20 | 132 | -112 | | | 短纤2603 | 6412 | 6160 | 252 | PF主力基差 | -32 | 38 | -70 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 156075 | 133093 | 22982 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.400 | 6. 330 | 70 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 212174 昨日 | 219076 前日 | -6902 变化 | 短纤 ...