Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside potential [1]. - For soybean oil, the driving force from US soybeans is not significant, and range - bound trading is the main strategy [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is 8,486 yuan/ton with a 0.86% increase, night - session closing price is 8,484 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change; trading volume is 441,419 lots with an increase of 9,962 lots, open interest is 456,514 lots with an increase of 3,972 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is 7,772 yuan/ton with no change, night - session closing price is 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; trading volume is 204,327 lots with a decrease of 34,459 lots, open interest is 656,874 lots with a decrease of 1,716 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price is 8,847 yuan/ton with a - 0.19% change, night - session closing price is 8,801 yuan/ton with a - 0.52% change; trading volume is 233,197 lots with a decrease of 48,158 lots, open interest is 204,202 lots with an increase of 4,135 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price is 4,036 ringgit/ton with a 1.23% increase, night - session closing price is 4,010 ringgit/ton with a - 0.64% change [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 48.77 cents/pound with a - 0.63% change [1]. - **Spot Data** - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,370 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 9,530 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,015 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data** - Palm oil basis in Guangdong is - 116 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong is 558 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi is 683 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread is 361 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread is - 714 yuan/ton; palm oil 1 - 5 spread is - 26 yuan/ton; soybean oil 1 - 5 spread is 222 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread is 204 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's biodiesel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. The country has implemented the B40 policy and plans to increase the blending ratio to B50 in 2026, and is currently testing the B50 standard [2][3]. - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to return to normal in 2026, and the La Nina weather pattern is expected to weaken by the end of the first quarter, which may optimize palm oil harvest efficiency [3]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop output is estimated to be 178.3 million tons, with a planting area of 49.1 million hectares and a yield of 3.63 tons per hectare [4]. - Argentina's November soybean crushing volume was 3,493,523 tons, with soybean oil output of 687,188 tons and soybean meal output of 2,559,305 tons. As of December 1, 2025, soybean inventory was 2,148,146 tons, soybean oil inventory was 282,301 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 704,678 tons [4]. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [5]

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Warehouse Receipts Weighing on Futures, Propylene: Spot Market Weak" and is dated December 24, 2025 [1][2] 2. Core View - The LPG futures market is being pressured by warehouse receipts, leading to a decline in the futures price. The propylene spot market is operating weakly. [1][2] 3. Fundamental Data 3.1 Futures Prices - PG2601 closed at 4,185 with a daily decline of 2.22% and a night - session close of 4,184 with a decline of 0.02%. - PG2602 closed at 4,031 with a daily decline of 2.28% and a night - session close of 4,070 with an increase of 0.97%. - PL2601 closed at 5,924 with a daily increase of 0.65% and a night - session close of 5,945 with an increase of 0.35%. - PL2602 closed at 5,641 with a daily decline of 0.72% and a night - session close of 5,661 with an increase of 0.35%. - PL2603 closed at 5,632 with a daily decline of 0.27% and a night - session close of 5,652 with an increase of 0.36%. [2] 3.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2601 had a trading volume of 7,907 (an increase of 210 from the previous day) and an open interest of 5,015 (a decrease of 2,887 from the previous day). - PG2602 had a trading volume of 118,968 (an increase of 40,066 from the previous day) and an open interest of 74,858 (a decrease of 10,633 from the previous day). - PL2601 had a trading volume of 220 (a decrease of 81 from the previous day) and an open interest of 1,101 (a decrease of 76 from the previous day). - PL2602 had a trading volume of 10,773 (a decrease of 10,842 from the previous day) and an open interest of 7,902 (an increase of 89 from the previous day). - PL2603 had a trading volume of 25,172 (a decrease of 17,260 from the previous day) and an open interest of 18,284. [2] 3.3 Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG01 contract was 295 (previous day: 200). - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG01 contract was 375 (previous day: 250). - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 114 (previous day: 4). - The spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 74 (previous day: 39). - The spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 99 (previous day: - 11). [2] 3.4 Industry Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.0% (last week: 72.9%). - The MTBE operating rate was 68.9% (previous: 69.8%). - The alkylation operating rate was 36.8% (previous: 39.5%). [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for LPG is 0, and for propylene is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook. [6] 5. Market News 5.1 CP Paper Goods Prices - On December 23, 2025, the January CP paper goods price for propane was 509 USD/ton, up 3 USD/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 501 USD/ton, up 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day. The February CP paper goods price for propane was 502 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton from the previous trading day. [7] 5.2 Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans - Multiple PDH plants have ongoing or planned maintenance, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with some maintenance start - times dating back to 2023 and some end - times still undetermined. [8] 5.3 Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans - Several LPG plants, such as Rizhao (China National Offshore) and Shenchi Chemical, have maintenance plans with different start and end times and loss volumes. [9]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 LLDPE：转产及个别煤化工降负，现货仍偏弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 期货反弹，市场交投气氛延续疲软，上游、期现贸易商为完成年度销售目标，随行低报为主。下游工厂 谨慎观望，成交气氛清淡。需求边际转弱下产业持货意愿差，基差再度走弱，仓单暂停去化。中东、美国报 盘量级减少价格升水国内，内外价差倒挂，中东、美国船期因周转有延误，预计 26 年 Q1 到港或多。 【市场状况分析】 原料端原油价格震荡，单体环节弱稳，PE 乙烯、乙烷供应利润有所压缩。PE 盘面低位震荡，近端下游 农膜有转弱，包装膜行业刚需维持，但近期下跌后中下游持货意愿转弱，上游年底让价出货，厂库小幅去化， 基差偏弱。供应端，广西石化逐步开车，12 月目前检修计划中性，部分 FD 转产及内蒙装置降负，中期仍需 关注存量高产能和需求转弱带来的供需压力。 【趋势强度】 LLDPE 趋势强度：0 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 PVC：短期反弹空间或有限 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4450 | 4420 | -30 | -288 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货一口价成交为主，盘中价格受政策性气氛推动明显上涨，然市场刚需表现谨慎，采购积 极性欠佳，短期供需基本面双弱，成交信心不足，华东地区电石法五型现汇库提报价在 4400-4550 元/吨， 乙烯法僵持在 4450-4600 元/吨。 商 品 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【市场状况分析】 PVC 估值低位，虽然市场交易反内卷、政策端强调着力稳定房地产市场以及近月空头大规模止盈能带动 PVC 阶段性反弹，但这种反弹空间有限，主要因 PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变。冬季仍是氯碱 企业检修淡季，即 ...

2025年12月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼政策担忧，盘面情绪性补涨 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：下游材料存涨价预期，偏强震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高做空 | 6 | | 多晶硅：加大开仓限制，关注情绪面波动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT Weda Bay Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛， 今年已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷， 包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2）据外媒报道，中国暂停了一项针对从俄罗斯进口的铜和镍的非官方补贴。 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products of Guotai Junan Futures on December 24, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term rebound with limited upside [2] - Soybean oil: Driven little by US soybeans, mainly operate within a range [2] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market fluctuates [2] - Corn: Focus on spot prices [2] - Cotton: Futures prices fluctuate strongly, pay attention to the overall market sentiment [2] - Eggs: Fluctuate and adjust [2] - Pigs: Secondary fattening is relatively active [2] - Peanuts: Focus on oil mills' purchases [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,486 yuan/ton with a 0.86% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,484 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,772 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% decrease. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. It plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) from next year. The rainy season in Indonesia is expected to return to normal in 2026. [5][6] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2,745 yuan/ton with a + 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,756 yuan/ton with a + 0.51% increase. DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price was 4,104 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease, and night - session closing price was 4,118 yuan/ton with a + 0.34% increase. [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 23, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed. As of December 11, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 2,396,198 tons, a 68.3% increase from the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 177 million tons. [9][11] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,189 yuan/ton with a - 0.41% change, and C2601's day - session closing price was 2,210 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decrease, and night - session closing price was 2,213 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 yuan/ton in some areas, and the Guangdong Shekou price also decreased by 10 yuan/ton. [14] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2605's day - session closing price was 14,140 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and night - session closing price was 14,135 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% decrease. CY2603's day - session closing price was 20,185 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase, and night - session closing price was 20,210 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase. [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot market was actively traded, and the price of pure cotton yarn was stable with an upward trend. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to the weakening US dollar. [17][18] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2601 was 3,027 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.01% decrease, and egg 2602 was 2,876 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.72% decrease. [23] - **No macro and industry news provided** Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,680 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,800 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 11,960 yuan/ton. [27] - **Market Information**: Some companies registered warehouse receipts, and the Ministry of Commerce determined that imported pork and by - products from the EU were dumped. [28][29] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,068 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and PK603 was 7,950 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% decrease. [32] - **Spot Market Focus**: The prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were basically stable, with low supply and demand [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The near - term contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) are oscillating weakly, and the far - term contracts need to focus on the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza [1][9] - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are the price height, inflection point time, and price decline rate. It is expected to oscillate widely between 1700 - 1900 points in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [11][13] - For the 2604 contract, shorting on rallies has a relatively higher winning rate. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored at the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. It is recommended to roll short following the 02 valuation [13] - For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and consider gradually shorting [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2512 closed at 1,630.1 with a daily increase of 0.21%, EC2602 at 1,719.8 with a 3.66% increase, and EC2604 at 1,128.8 with a 1.66% increase. The difference between EC2512 and EC2604 is 501.3, and between EC2602 and EC2604 is 591.0 [1] - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route was at 1,589.20 points with a weekly increase of 5.2%, and the SCFIS US - West route was at 962.10 points with a 4.1% increase. The SCFI European route was at $1,533/TEU with a bi - weekly decrease of 0.3%, and the SCFI US - West route was at $1,992/FEU with an 11.9% increase [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different carriers' prices for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route range from $1,418 - $3,010 for 40'GP and $1,530 - $1,955 for 20'GP [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was at 98.26, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.03 [1] 3.2 Macro News - On December 19, Maersk's Sebarok, a 6,500 TEU Singapore - flagged container ship built in 2007, completed crossing the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea, the first Maersk ship to pass through the strait in nearly two years, operating on the MECL route (India - US) [8][10] - On December 23, the Israeli Defense Minister's Office stated that the Israeli government has no intention of establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, after earlier remarks from the defense minister about building new "outposts" in northern Gaza [8] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In January, the weekly average capacity is maintained at 318,000 TEU/week. The undetermined voyages are reduced to 1 ship. The capacity in the second week is revised down from 332,000 to 318,000 TEU due to new passive blank sailings in AEU7, and the capacity in the fourth week is revised up from 315,000 to 329,000 TEU [9] - **Demand Side**: In late December, major shipping companies started the container - skipping mode. The loading performance of the PA Alliance has improved significantly, laying the foundation for the price increase in early January. The overall booking in the first week of January is slow, and the peak cargo volume may appear around mid - January and then decline [10] - **Price Forecast**: In early January, the second - week SPOT average of some carriers is expected to be around $2,550 - $2,600. The weekly FAK average in the second week is revised down by $100 to around $2,700/FEU. In late January, shipping companies have the incentive to reduce prices to stockpile goods [12][13]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年12月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 778. 5 | -3.0 | -0. 38% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 554.034 | 2, 081 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strong [1][5][6] - PTA: Cost support is strong [1][6] - MEG: Demand is weak, and unilateral price continues to decline, with a weak mid - term trend [1][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite the planned polyester factory production cuts, the expectation of tight PX supply cannot be falsified in the short - term, and the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, as well as the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [5][6] - PTA: With strong cost support, the unilateral trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB positions and positive spread arbitrage. The tight PX supply provides cost support and continues to squeeze downstream profits. The short - term trend remains strong [6] - MEG: It is in a unilateral volatile market, and the mid - term trend is still weak. Polyester production cuts are negative for ethylene glycol demand, increasing the inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to whether unplanned production cuts and overhauls can be implemented. The short - term trend is weak, and a short - position allocation is maintained [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PX futures closing price was 7302, up 44 (0.61%); the PX1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 66, down 32; the PX CFR China spot price was 896 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars; the PX - naphtha spread was 335.45, up 30.34 [2] - **Market Dynamics**: On December 24, 2025, the naphtha price fell in the late session. The 3 - month Asian PX spot was traded at 896 dollars/ton. The Asian PX price continued to rise on December 23, 2025, after a brief decline in the Asian morning session. A PX producer said the recent spot price jump was mainly due to futures rather than supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5] 3.2 PTA - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PTA futures closing price was 5082, up 42 (0.83%); the PTA1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 68, unchanged; the PTA East China spot price was 4955 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the PTA processing fee was 150.47, down 28.15 [2] 3.3 MEG - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the MEG futures closing price was 3623, down 112 (- 3.00%); the MEG1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 119, up 2; the MEG spot price was 3522, down 93 [2] 3.4 Polyester - **Production Cuts**: Some major Chinese polyester producers may consider reducing the production of some products. It is reported that three major polyester filament manufacturers will implement a 10% increase in POY production cuts on Wednesday this week, and continue the previous 15% FDY production cuts [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to opportunistically take short positions in light crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends of international crude oil futures and the arbitrage situations of various crude oil varieties in different regions, and also provides key market news [1][2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil Price Trends - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.37 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, to $58.38 per barrel; ICE Brent oil futures contract 02 rose by $0.31 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%, to $62.38 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up by $0.60 per barrel, a gain of 0.14%, to $442.30 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami and other crude oils are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces; Forties crude in the North Sea, Saudi Extra Light, Saharan Blend and Urals crude present arbitrage opportunities; Cabinda crude in Angola lacks competitiveness [2][4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH crude oil in the US is close to balance but slightly negative; Eagle Ford shale oil in the US has competitiveness in the Northwest European market; the arbitrage window of Azeri Light crude oil is closed; Saharan Blend crude oil in Algeria has strong competitiveness; Bonny Light crude oil in Nigeria is close to full balance [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk and Eagle Ford crude oils are deeply closed, lacking competitiveness compared with Urals crude oil [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Dubai and Bonny Light crude oils are negative or close to the break - even point; WTI MEH crude oil in the US almost reaches the break - even point; Eagle Ford crude oil presents an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +$1.16 per barrel [8][9] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventories increased in the week ending December 19; Libya's new round of oil block tenders attracted global energy companies, but political instability and infrastructure challenges need to be solved; Nigeria's four major crude oil grades' average daily export volume in February is expected to increase; the monthly rate of US durable goods orders in October decreased; US President Trump pressured Venezuelan President Maduro and threatened to keep the oil on seized tankers [9][10][11] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]