2025 年 09 月 05 日 锌：累库持续 【新闻】 1. 美国 8 月 ADP 就业增长大幅放缓至 5.4 万人，强化美联储降息预期。美国 8 月 ADP 就业人数增加 5.4 万人，大幅低于市场预期的 6.8 万人，也较 7 月修正后的 10.4 万增幅明显放缓。该报告与近期显示劳动 力市场正逐步降温的其他指标相符，包括职位空缺减少、薪资增长放缓等。数据发布后，市场定价显示美联 储降息的可能性已高达 97%。（华尔街见闻） 2. 进口激增，美国贸易逆差扩大至四个月来最大。美国 7 月份商品和服务贸易逆差较前月扩大近 33%， 至 783 亿美元，为四个月高点。7 月进口值增长 5.9%，创今年年初以来最大增幅，而出口小幅上升。企业赶 在关税生效前的"囤货潮"是推动此次进口激增的核心原因。（华尔街见闻） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 ...

期 货 研 究 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 15.7 | -0.35 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 31 | 3 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5920 | -10 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 19 | -11 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5533 | -29 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 387 | 19 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 2025 年 09 月 05 日 白糖：巴西出口同比下降 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：印度季风降水量较 LPA 高 8.8%（9 月 4 日）。Conab 下调 25/26 榨季巴西产量至 4450 万吨， 前值 4590 万吨。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 8 月出口 374 万吨，同比减少 5%；巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨，同比减少 5%。中国 7 月进口食糖 74 万吨（+3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a weak - bearish sentiment, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3] 2. Report's Core View - Lithium carbonate production is increasing while the market is in a weak - running state [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of the 2509 contract is 73,000 yuan, down 5,140 yuan from T - 5; the 2511 contract's closing price is 73,420 yuan, down 4,720 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume of the 2509 contract is 550, a significant decrease compared to T - 5, while the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 712,151, showing an increase compared to T - 5. The open interest of the 2509 contract is 3,868, down 18,976 from T - 5, and the 2511 contract's open interest is 353,674, up 6,611 from T - 5 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 34,948 hands, an increase of 5,991 hands compared to T - 5 [1] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 is 2,000 yuan, and spot - 2511 is 1,580 yuan. The basis of 2509 - 2511 is - 420 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 874 yuan, down 15 yuan from T - 5; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,865 yuan, down 50 yuan from T - 5 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 75,000 yuan, down 5,000 yuan from T - 5; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,700 yuan, also down 5,000 yuan from T - 5 [1] - **Related Products in the Industry Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,995 yuan, down 1,210 yuan from T - 5; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) is 113,450 yuan, down 650 yuan from T - 5 [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,869 yuan/ton, a decrease of 886 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 75,000 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,700 yuan/ton, also down 900 yuan/ton [2] - This week, the lithium carbonate inventory is 140,092 tons, a decrease of 1,044 tons compared to last week, and the production is 19,419 tons, an increase of 389 tons compared to last week [2]

2025 年 09 月 05 日 【趋势强度】 短纤：成本坍塌震荡偏弱，下方空间有限 瓶片：成本坍塌震荡偏弱，下方空间有限 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 6254 | 6350 | -96 | PF09-10 | -88 | -60 | -28 | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6342 | 6410 | -68 | PF10-11 | 12 | -28 | 40 | | | 短纤2511 | 6330 | 6438 | -108 | PF某差 | 108 | 85 | 23 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 146808 | 104824 | 41984 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 450 | 6. 495 ...

2025 年 9 月 5 日 沥青：开工暴涨，库存观望（隆众增百川降） 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,468 | -2.31% | 3,461 | -0.20% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,442 | -2.77% | 3,432 | -0.29% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 128,082 | 26,904 | 70,861 | (22,224) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 189,510 | 91,521 | 237,670 | (4,424) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 69400 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日 ...

2025 年 9 月 5 日 焦炭：成本预期下修，弱势震荡 焦煤：供给增量预期渐浓，估值回调 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【趋势强度】 焦炭趋势强度：0；焦煤趋势强度：0 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1094.5 | -11.5 | -1.0% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1581.5 | -12.5 | -0. 8% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 1185403 | 733627 | -12138 | | | | J2601 | 23549 | 46827 | 423 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1430 | 1450 | -20 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, under a neutral fundamental situation, synthetic rubber is expected to be in an interval - running stage, with pressure above and support below. The upper pressure comes from the high - supply pattern of butadiene rubber and increased inventory pressure, as well as relatively high short - term butadiene arrivals. The lower support is due to the long - term "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies, which support the overall valuation of commodities and reduce investors' risk appetite for short - selling. Overall, butadiene rubber is expected to move within an interval, mainly fluctuating with macro - sentiment during the week [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 11,810 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 25,435 lots to 130,504 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,330 lots to 26,614 lots, and the trading volume increased by 144,632 ten - thousand yuan to 770,146 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract increased by 25 to 90, the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 increased by 20 to 20. The prices of North China and East China butadiene (private) remained unchanged, South China butadiene (private) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton, Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,900 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) and (model 1712) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,350 yuan/ton and 11,350 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton to 9,350 yuan/ton and 9,575 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 76.2727%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,285 yuan/ton, and the butadiene rubber profit remained unchanged at - 185 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - As of September 3, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,950 tons, an increase of 6,950 tons from the previous period. The arrival of imported ships was relatively concentrated during the week, which led to a significant increase in the inventory of sample ports. And some trade volumes were for sale, so inventory changes should be carefully monitored [2]. - As of September 3, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.60%. The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber was sufficient this period. Some private enterprises in Shandong and East China were expected to undergo maintenance, and the raw material market was generally strong, so some traders and downstream buyers followed up. However, the continuous volatile trend of the synthetic rubber futures market still affected the upward movement of the trading center. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the urea futures price may fluctuate. The commodity sentiment in the night session showed a slight recovery, and the results of the Indian tender's quantity and price are out. Attention should be paid to spot trading and the overall equity market sentiment during the day [2]. - In the medium term, the trend remains under pressure. The urea warehouse receipt quantity is at a high level, and the futures valuation maintains a high premium, with the static valuation of the urea futures price being relatively high. In the fourth - quarter supply - demand balance, although there is export volume support, due to weak domestic demand, the UR2601 contract is expected to gradually accumulate inventory, and the terminal value of the 01 contract is expected to be weak [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,713 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 152,066 lots, the open interest of the 01 contract was 234,351 lots (up 1,623 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 7,928 tons (up 723 tons), the trading volume was 520.847 million yuan (down 471.687 million yuan), the Shandong regional basis was - 14 (down 10), the basis of Fengxi - Disk was - 104 (unchanged), the basis of Dongguang - Disk was - 4 (unchanged), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 50 (up 6) [1]. - **Spot Market**: Among urea factory prices, Henan Xinlianxin was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Ruixing was 1,680 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,590 yuan/ton (down 20), Hebei Dongguang was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged). The trader price in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (down 10), and in Shanxi it was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged). The supply - side important indicators showed that the operating rate was 79.64% (down 0.74%), and the daily output was 186,300 tons (down 1,740 tons) [1]. Industry News - On September 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.095 million tons, an increase of 0.0092 million tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.85%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises varied, with the overall inventory level increasing slightly. Some enterprises in the southwest and northwest regions fulfilled export orders, resulting in a decrease in inventory, while some enterprises saw an increase in inventory due to a decline in downstream operations and reduced inflows [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the main idea is to short at high prices; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to policy - related information [2] - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking a. Futures Market - Si2511: The closing price is 8,515 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 371,805 lots, and the open interest is 277,305 lots. Compared with different reference days (T - 1, T - 5, T - 22), there are corresponding changes [2] - PS2511: The closing price is 52,195 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 268,080 lots, and the open interest is 145,950 lots, with specific changes compared to previous days [2] b. Basis - Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts when benchmarked against different products (such as Si5530, Si4210, Xinjiang 99 silicon), and polysilicon also has a spot premium and discount when benchmarked against N - type re - investment [2] c. Price - Industrial silicon prices vary by region and type, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon at 8,500 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 at 9,650 yuan/ton; polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 51,500 yuan/ton [2] d. Profit - Silicon factory profits for different types (Xinjiang new standard 553 and Yunnan new standard 553) are negative, and polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.3 yuan/kg [2] e. Inventory - Industrial silicon has different inventory types, including social inventory (53.7 million tons), enterprise inventory (17.1 million tons), industry inventory (70.8 million tons), and futures warehouse receipt inventory (25.0 million tons); polysilicon factory inventory is 21.1 million tons [2] f. Raw Material Cost - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon and polysilicon, such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., have different price levels and changes [2] g. Price and Profit in Related Industries - In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) industry, prices of products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc., and profits of related enterprises are provided; in the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries, prices and profits of products are also given [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026". The plan sets various goals for the industry from 2025 - 2026, such as average growth rate of added value, revenue scale, and market penetration rate [2][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and industry data. It also provides market information such as CP paper prices and domestic device maintenance plans [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,368 yesterday with a -1.09% daily increase, and 4,388 in the night session with a 0.46% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,297 yesterday with a -1.13% daily increase, and 4,319 in the night session with a 0.51% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,392 yesterday with a -0.36% daily increase, and 6,391 in the night session with a -0.02% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,417 yesterday with a -0.51% daily increase, and 6,424 in the night session with a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: For PG2510, the trading volume yesterday was 67,438, an increase of 13,302 from the previous day, and the position was 65,728, a decrease of 5,811 from the previous day; for PG2511, the trading volume was 18,354, an increase of 4,182 from the previous day, and the position was 39,093, an increase of 1,791 from the previous day; for PL2601, the trading volume was 3,174, a decrease of 446 from the previous day, and the position was 9,624, an increase of 663 from the previous day; for PL2602, the trading volume was 8, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the position was 872, an increase of 5 from the previous day [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 82 yesterday, compared to 14 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 222 yesterday, compared to 84 the day before; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 213 yesterday, compared to 215 the day before; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 183 yesterday, compared to 160 the day before; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 83 yesterday, compared to 60 the day before [2]. - **Industry Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, the same as last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, the same as last week; the alkylation operating rate was 46.8%, compared to 49.0% last week [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Prices**: On September 5, 2025, the October CP paper price for propane was 542 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 517 US dollars per ton, an increase of 2 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper price for propane was 550 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day [7]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting in 2023 and others in 2025, and some end times are still undetermined [8]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG factories have device maintenance plans, with some starting in 2024 and others in 2025, and some end times are still undetermined [9].