1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking of downstream enterprises [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: CF2605 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.39% and a night - session closing price of 14,145 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.53%; CY2603 closed at 20,110 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30% and a night - session closing price of 20,210 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.50%; ICE US cotton 3 was at 63.61 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.06% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: CF2605 had a trading volume of 452,618 lots, an increase of 48,089 lots compared to the previous day, and an open interest of 1,116,046 lots, a decrease of 421 lots; CY2603 had a trading volume of 9,577 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 23,294 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Zhengzhou cotton had 4,075 warehouse receipts, an increase of 205, and 3,831 valid forecasts, a decrease of 21;棉纱 had 9 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 9 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,901 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37%; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37%; the price in Shandong was 15,195 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; the price in Hebei was 15,132 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.01%; the 3128B index was 15,154 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06%; the international cotton index M was 72.05 cents/pound, an increase of 0.36%; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.02% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 30 yuan/ton more than the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was unchanged at 830 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was average, with fixed - price trading relatively better. Spot fixed prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton with the rise of Zhengzhou cotton. The 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 41 - 31 grade double - 29 with less than 3% impurity had many fixed - price quotes above 15,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable, and the overall market sales were weak. Affected by the slowdown in the downstream grey - cloth market and insufficient new orders, the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly, and the phenomenon of bargaining sales increased. Recently, the sales of medium - and low - count yarns (including rotor - spun yarn) were weak, while only high - count combed yarns sold well, and some traders reported a shortage of supplies [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. After the release of US cotton export sales data, it declined. Due to the approaching holiday, the market trading was light, and it was still in a low - level oscillation [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2] for integer values, and 0 represents a neutral trend [5]

宏观反内卷情绪和资金移仓带动烧碱反弹，但从基本面看，烧碱仍是高产量、高库存格局。需求端，氧 化铝低利润导致烧碱产业链负反馈，同时非铝下游面临季节性刚需下滑，出口承压，整体需求难有支撑。供 应端看，冬季本身是氯碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，烧碱供应压力较大，企业面临高库存的压力，本周 烧碱累库，春节前仍面临降价去库的压力。 2025 年 12 月 23 日 烧碱：短期反弹，关注库存变化 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2181 | 710 | 2219 | 38 | | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | | | | 【现货消息】 12 月 22 日山东液碱局部价格稳定，个别企业因自身出货情况价格小幅调整。 【市场状况分析】 整体看，烧碱估值始终受氧化铝减产预期压制。虽然烧碱成本存在一定支撑，但厂家不减产，烧碱 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on the lithium carbonate market, including prices, trading volumes, and inventory levels. It also provides macro and industry news, such as price changes, factory warehouse expansion for futures delivery, and import data. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the 2601 and 2605 contracts are presented, showing fluctuations compared to previous periods. For example, the 2601 contract's closing price was 112,480, with a change of 2,760 compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 16,411 hands, an increase of 900 compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and futures contracts, as well as between different futures contracts, is provided. For example, the spot - 2601 basis was -13,480 [2]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: Prices of raw materials (lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica) and lithium salts (battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc.) are given, showing price increases compared to previous periods. For instance, battery - grade lithium carbonate was 99,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan/ton compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Downstream Products**: Prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte are presented, with some showing price increases [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Changes**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 99,120 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,283 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate averaged 99,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate averaged 96,350 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Expansion**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the addition of several companies as lithium carbonate futures delivery factories and increased the maximum standard warehouse receipt volumes at multiple storage points [4]. - **Import Data**: In November 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 729,000 physical tons, a 12% monthly increase, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of incremental imports, with a 44% monthly increase [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the market [4].

2025 年 12 月 23 日 生猪：反套持有 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11680 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11800 | | -300 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11960 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11165 | | 15 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11345 | | 20 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11905 | | -20 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 ...

2025 年 12 月 23 日 沥青：现货窄幅调整，背离油价持稳 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,995 | 2.96% | 2,992 | -0.10% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 3,007 | 2.84% | 3,007 | 0.00% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2602 | 手 | 366,642 | 39,421 | 217,171 | (777) | | | BU2603 | 手 | 123,581 | 38,249 | 139,186 | 10,282 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 54100 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 | | | | 基差（山东-02） | 元/吨 | -75 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PVC is currently at a low valuation, and although market trading against involution and large - scale stop - profit of short positions in the near - month contracts can drive a phased rebound, the rebound space is limited [1]. - The high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term, but considering the continuous decline in caustic soda profits and the historically low level of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits, supply - side production cuts during the maintenance peak season next year can be expected [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - For PVC fundamental data, the 01 - contract futures price is 4314, the East China spot price is 4340, the basis is 26, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 277 [1]. Spot News - Hanwha and part of Xinpu's devices are under maintenance. The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises in the industry is 77.38%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.23% [1]. Market Condition Analysis - Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Even if there are new maintenance plans, the scale may be limited. Futures contracts before the 03 contract still face a pattern of high production and weak demand, and the expectation of large - scale production cuts may come after the 03 contract [1]. - PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].

2025 年 12 月 23 日 工业硅：以逢高做空思路为主 多晶硅：新增厂库额度，关注情绪面影响 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,595 306,942 | -95 -8,384 | 245 3,032 | -480 -267,403 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 221,606 | 11,733 | 20,857 | -52,372 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 58,845 | -1,400 | 815 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 213,280 | -65,509 | -100,859 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 134,949 | -4,238 | -7,895 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of the external market for LPG is relatively strong, and there are expectations of tightening supply, demand, and inventory for propylene, with short - term trends supported [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2601 closed at 4,280 with a 1.47% daily increase and 4,248 at night with a - 0.75% decrease; PG2602 closed at 4,125 with a 0.63% daily increase and 4,116 at night with a - 0.22% decrease. PL2601 closed at 5,886 with a - 0.67% daily decrease and 5,905 at night with a 0.32% increase; PL2602 closed at 5,682 with a - 0.58% daily decrease and 5,710 at night with a 0.49% increase; PL2603 closed at 5,647 with a - 0.84% daily decrease and 5,705 at night with a 1.03% increase [2] - **Position and Trading Volume**: PG2601 had 7,697 trades with a decrease of 528 from the previous day and 7,902 positions with a decrease of 3,103; PG2602 had 78,902 trades with an increase of 32,400 and 85,491 positions with a decrease of 2,126. PL2601 had 301 trades with an increase of 89 and 1,177 positions with a decrease of 137; PL2602 had 21,615 trades with an increase of 9,143 and 7,813 positions with a decrease of 115; PL2603 had 42,432 trades with an increase of 15,708 and 18,456 positions with an increase of 533 [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG01 contract was 200 (previous day: 332); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG01 contract was 250 (previous day: 352); the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 4 (previous day: - 11); the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 39 (previous day: - 1); the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 11 (previous day: - 51) [2] - **Key Industrial Data**: The PDH operating rate was 75.0% this week (previous week: 72.9%); the MTBE operating rate was 68.9% (previous: 69.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 36.8% (previous: 40.3%) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [6] 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Goods**: On December 20, 2025, the January CP paper goods for propane were 506 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 496 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton. The February CP paper goods for propane were 500 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton from the previous day [7] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plan**: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans starting from 2023 to 2025, with some end - times undetermined [8] - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plan**: Factories such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou have full - plant maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026, with different loss volumes and durations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to continue its weak trend. The cost - end support from crude oil is limited, the supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies before the 2605 contract, the downstream demand is weak, and the PDH profit has hit a new low. However, the upstream's willingness to cut production is not strong. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH plants under deep PDH losses [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 was 6119, with a daily decline of 1.51%. The trading volume was 534747, and the position increased by 13836. The 05 - contract basis was - 119 (compared to - 143 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 42 (compared to - 27 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 5960 yuan/ton, 6000 yuan/ton, and 6140 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day's prices [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market fluctuated. There was still a structural shortage of goods in some regions, but the trading atmosphere in the off - season was weak. The basis in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at par, and there were still risk - free opportunities in Changzhou at certain stages. The warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and the follow - up of new downstream orders was insufficient. Some PDH plants plan to shut down in January, but the scale is not large. The year - end demand lacks flexibility, the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited in the continuous decline, and the basis is under pressure. The PP US - dollar market prices have partially declined, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and downstream procurement is still based on rigid demand [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost End**: Crude oil is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, providing limited cost support for PP. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic between aromatics and olefins is continuously strengthened [2] - **Supply End**: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between supply and demand of existing stocks intensifies [2] - **Demand End**: The follow - up of new downstream orders has weakened, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a strong performance yesterday. The主力2602 contract closed at 1,871.8 points, with an increase of 5,003 lots and a gain of 8.77%. The次主力2604 contract closed at 1,166.8 points, with an increase of 1,634 lots and a gain of 3.6%. The SCFIS on December 22 rose 5.2% from the previous period, basically in line with expectations. The predicted settlement price of the 2512 contract is between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are the freight rate level, inflection - point time, and price decline rate. The settlement price of the 2602 contract is the average of the SCFIS for three consecutive Wednesdays (weeks 4, 5, and 6). The 2602 contract can theoretically be anchored to the FAK average in week 5. Different scenarios for the 2602 contract are presented based on the price trend in week 3 [13][14]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, the risk of premium should be watched out for [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2512 closed at 1,630.1 with a daily increase of 0.21%, EC2602 at 1,719.8 with a 3.66% increase, and EC2604 at 1,128.8 with a 1.66% increase. The spread between EC2512 and EC2604 is 501.3, and between EC2602 and EC2604 is 591.0 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,589.20 points, up 5.2% week - on - week; for the US West route, it was 962.10 points, up 4.1% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was $1,533/TEU, with a bi - weekly decline of 0.3%, and for the US West route was $1,992/FEU, up 11.9% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot European Freight Rates**: Different carriers have different freight rates for 40'GP and 20'GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's 40'GP is $2,530 and 20'GP is $1,575 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.26, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.03 [1]. 2. Macro News - Maersk's Sebarok completed crossing the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on the early morning of December 19, the first Maersk ship to pass through the strait in nearly two years. It is a 6,500 - TEU ship operating on the MECL route (India - US) [8][12]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will discuss Iran's nuclear activities and the next phase of the Gaza plan with US President Trump during his visit next week. Israel is also trying to prevent the Houthi rebels in Yemen from blocking international shipping routes [8]. - Iranian state media reported that multiple cities in Iran held missile exercises [10]. 3. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In January, the weekly average capacity remains at 318,000 TEU/week, with the number of pending voyages reduced to 1. Compared with last Sunday's schedule, the capacity in weeks 1 and 3 remains unchanged. The capacity in week 2 is revised down from 332,000 to 318,000 TEU due to additional passive blank sailings on AEU7, and the capacity in week 4 is revised up from 315,000 to 329,000 TEU, becoming the week with the greatest supply pressure [12]. - **Demand Side**: Major shipping companies started the practice of cargo rolling in late December, especially the PA Alliance, which laid the foundation for the price increase in early January. Weekly bookings were slow in the first week of January, possibly related to ongoing long - term contract negotiations. The peak cargo volume may occur around mid - January (week 3) and then decline [13]. 4. Price Forecast - **2512 Contract**: The settlement price is expected to be between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - **2602 Contract**: - Neutral Scenario: The FAK average in week 3 is around $2,800/FEU, similar to week 2. The combined decline in weeks 4 and 5 is $300 - $400/FEU. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,720 - 1,800 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,800 - 1,900 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. - Optimistic Scenario: There is a final price increase in week 3, but the increase is less than $400/FEU. The 2602 contract will have an additional premium of 100 - 300 points on top of the neutral scenario, with a valuation between 1,900 - 2,200 points [14]. - Pessimistic Scenario: The price starts to decline in week 3, with a combined decline of $500 - $600/FEU in weeks 3, 4, and 5. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,580 - 1,650 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,650 - 1,750 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. 5. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, as its valuation has been significantly repaired, it is recommended to wait and see for now and make dynamic evaluations based on Maersk's opening price [15]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, it is recommended to short - sell based on the 2602 contract's valuation [15]. 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].