Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the urea futures price may fluctuate. The commodity sentiment in the night session showed a slight recovery, and the results of the Indian tender's quantity and price are out. Attention should be paid to spot trading and the overall equity market sentiment during the day [2]. - In the medium term, the trend remains under pressure. The urea warehouse receipt quantity is at a high level, and the futures valuation maintains a high premium, with the static valuation of the urea futures price being relatively high. In the fourth - quarter supply - demand balance, although there is export volume support, due to weak domestic demand, the UR2601 contract is expected to gradually accumulate inventory, and the terminal value of the 01 contract is expected to be weak [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,713 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 152,066 lots, the open interest of the 01 contract was 234,351 lots (up 1,623 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 7,928 tons (up 723 tons), the trading volume was 520.847 million yuan (down 471.687 million yuan), the Shandong regional basis was - 14 (down 10), the basis of Fengxi - Disk was - 104 (unchanged), the basis of Dongguang - Disk was - 4 (unchanged), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 50 (up 6) [1]. - **Spot Market**: Among urea factory prices, Henan Xinlianxin was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Ruixing was 1,680 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,590 yuan/ton (down 20), Hebei Dongguang was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged). The trader price in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (down 10), and in Shanxi it was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged). The supply - side important indicators showed that the operating rate was 79.64% (down 0.74%), and the daily output was 186,300 tons (down 1,740 tons) [1]. Industry News - On September 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.095 million tons, an increase of 0.0092 million tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.85%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises varied, with the overall inventory level increasing slightly. Some enterprises in the southwest and northwest regions fulfilled export orders, resulting in a decrease in inventory, while some enterprises saw an increase in inventory due to a decline in downstream operations and reduced inflows [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the main idea is to short at high prices; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to policy - related information [2] - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking a. Futures Market - Si2511: The closing price is 8,515 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 371,805 lots, and the open interest is 277,305 lots. Compared with different reference days (T - 1, T - 5, T - 22), there are corresponding changes [2] - PS2511: The closing price is 52,195 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 268,080 lots, and the open interest is 145,950 lots, with specific changes compared to previous days [2] b. Basis - Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts when benchmarked against different products (such as Si5530, Si4210, Xinjiang 99 silicon), and polysilicon also has a spot premium and discount when benchmarked against N - type re - investment [2] c. Price - Industrial silicon prices vary by region and type, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon at 8,500 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 at 9,650 yuan/ton; polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 51,500 yuan/ton [2] d. Profit - Silicon factory profits for different types (Xinjiang new standard 553 and Yunnan new standard 553) are negative, and polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.3 yuan/kg [2] e. Inventory - Industrial silicon has different inventory types, including social inventory (53.7 million tons), enterprise inventory (17.1 million tons), industry inventory (70.8 million tons), and futures warehouse receipt inventory (25.0 million tons); polysilicon factory inventory is 21.1 million tons [2] f. Raw Material Cost - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon and polysilicon, such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., have different price levels and changes [2] g. Price and Profit in Related Industries - In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) industry, prices of products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc., and profits of related enterprises are provided; in the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries, prices and profits of products are also given [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026". The plan sets various goals for the industry from 2025 - 2026, such as average growth rate of added value, revenue scale, and market penetration rate [2][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and industry data. It also provides market information such as CP paper prices and domestic device maintenance plans [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,368 yesterday with a -1.09% daily increase, and 4,388 in the night session with a 0.46% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,297 yesterday with a -1.13% daily increase, and 4,319 in the night session with a 0.51% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,392 yesterday with a -0.36% daily increase, and 6,391 in the night session with a -0.02% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,417 yesterday with a -0.51% daily increase, and 6,424 in the night session with a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: For PG2510, the trading volume yesterday was 67,438, an increase of 13,302 from the previous day, and the position was 65,728, a decrease of 5,811 from the previous day; for PG2511, the trading volume was 18,354, an increase of 4,182 from the previous day, and the position was 39,093, an increase of 1,791 from the previous day; for PL2601, the trading volume was 3,174, a decrease of 446 from the previous day, and the position was 9,624, an increase of 663 from the previous day; for PL2602, the trading volume was 8, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the position was 872, an increase of 5 from the previous day [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 82 yesterday, compared to 14 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 222 yesterday, compared to 84 the day before; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 213 yesterday, compared to 215 the day before; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 183 yesterday, compared to 160 the day before; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 83 yesterday, compared to 60 the day before [2]. - **Industry Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, the same as last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, the same as last week; the alkylation operating rate was 46.8%, compared to 49.0% last week [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Prices**: On September 5, 2025, the October CP paper price for propane was 542 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 517 US dollars per ton, an increase of 2 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper price for propane was 550 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day [7]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting in 2023 and others in 2025, and some end times are still undetermined [8]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG factories have device maintenance plans, with some starting in 2024 and others in 2025, and some end times are still undetermined [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - **Positive Outlook**: Rubber (trend intensity: 1) [12][14] - **Neutral Outlook**: PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, LPG, Propylene, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Line) (trend intensities: 0) [2][17][20] - **Negative Outlook**: PX, Glass, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC (trend intensities: -1) [2][52][62] 2. Core Views - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Each commodity has its own supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment factors influencing its price trend. For example, PX is affected by OPEC+ production expectations and downstream PTA pressure; Rubber is supported by raw material supply disruptions and inventory reduction [6][16]. - **Market Uncertainties**: Many commodities face uncertainties from factors such as policy changes (e.g., anti - deflation and anti - involution policies), cost fluctuations (e.g., oil and coal prices), and supply - demand imbalances (e.g., new产能 releases and seasonal demand changes) [37][42]. 3. Summary by Commodity **PX, PTA, MEG** - **PX**: Cost collapse due to potential OPEC+ production increase, with a weakening unilateral trend. Suggest 11 - 01 positive spread and 1 - 5 negative spread. The downside of the unilateral price is limited, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [6][10][11]. - **PTA**: Follows the decline in crude oil prices. Focus on the 11 - 1 positive spread for the month - spread and the strategy of going long on PTA and short on PX for processing fees [10][11]. - **MEG**: Valuation drops due to the decline in coal and crude oil prices. The domestic production capacity utilization rate decreases, while polyester production increases. The supply in September is still tight, and the 1 - 5 month - spread may strengthen [9][11]. **Rubber** - **Market Performance**: The price is oscillating strongly. Supported by strong raw material prices due to weather - related supply disruptions and inventory reduction. However, the upward movement is limited by the weakening preference in the commodity market [12][14][16]. **Synthetic Rubber** - **Market Condition**: Remains in a volatile pattern. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber is high, and the inventory pressure increases. The short - term arrival volume of butadiene is high, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [17][18][19]. **Asphalt** - **Market Situation**: The production starts to increase significantly, and the inventory situation is mixed (increase in Longzhong data and decrease in Baichuan data). It is expected to follow the oil price in a range - bound movement [20][31]. **LLDPE** - **Market Outlook**: In a medium - term oscillating market. Although the demand from the agricultural film industry improves, the commodity sentiment weakens the futures trend. The supply pressure may ease temporarily in late September due to maintenance, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [32][33]. **PP** - **Market Trend**: Short - term oscillation, with medium - term downward pressure. The short - term demand improves, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure increases with the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity releases [36][37]. **Caustic Soda** - **Market Analysis**: Not advisable to chase short positions. The market is in a wide - range oscillation. The driving force for price increase is insufficient due to export and alumina - related issues, but there is no obvious downward driving force for the spot price either [40][42]. **Pulp** - **Market Performance**: Oscillates. The average price of imported pulp decreases slightly. The futures price rises slightly, but the spot price has limited follow - up due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [45][47][50]. **Glass** - **Market Condition**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the downstream orders change little, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [51][52]. **Methanol** - **Market Outlook**: Short - term rebound, medium - term oscillation. The port inventory accumulates, and the price is weak. The short - term fundamental contradiction is large, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [54][57][58]. **Urea** - **Market Trend**: Short - term fluctuations, with medium - term downward pressure. The inventory of urea enterprises increases slightly. The futures price is over - valued, and the 01 contract may face inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [59][60][61]. **Styrene** - **Market Situation**: Medium - term bearish. The long - position holders' expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season are strong, but the inventory in East China ports accumulates, and the tank capacity is tight in September. The short - term is volatile, and the medium - term fundamentals are weak [62][63]. **Soda Ash** - **Market Condition**: The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash plants increases slightly, and the downstream demand is average, with a weak price trend expected in the short term [64][66]. **LPG, Propylene** - **LPG**: The expected increase in OPEC+ production leads to a decline in the crude oil cost. The market is affected by factors such as CP prices and device maintenance plans [68][73]. - **Propylene**: The support from spot supply and demand weakens [68]. **PVC** - **Market Outlook**: Under pressure. The supply is high due to the "chlor - alkali compensation" profit model. The domestic demand related to the real estate industry is weak, the inventory accumulates, and the export growth may slow down [77]. **Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Fuel Oil**: Turns to an oscillating pattern and is still weak in the short term [80]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Continues to decline, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the foreign spot market narrows slightly [80]. **Container Shipping Index (European Line)** - **Market Performance**: Wide - range oscillation. The spot freight rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand pattern shows that the loading rate in September decreases slightly. The 2510 contract may face loading pressure during the National Day holiday, and the 2512 contract has some negative factors. It is advisable to consider positive spread strategies for the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 contracts and to try short positions on the 2510 contract [82][93][96].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The LLDPE market is expected to experience a mid - term oscillating trend. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry; however, recent weakening commodity sentiment has led to a decline in futures prices. Although there is a slight increase in domestic supply and a small inventory build - up recently, the overall inventory pressure is not high, so the PE market may continue to oscillate within a range [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2601 was 7225, with a daily decline of - 0.51%. The trading volume was 235,618, and the open interest increased by 12,101 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 01 contract was - 115 (compared to - 97 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was 5 (compared to 7 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the spot price was 7110 yuan/ton (down from 7150 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7170 yuan/ton (down from 7220 yuan/ton); and in the South China region, it was 7350 yuan/ton (down from 7380 yuan/ton) [1]. Spot News - The domestic PE market prices oscillated within a range this week. Crude oil prices first rose and then fell, providing limited cost support. Some plants such as Shanghai Petrochemical, Tarim Petrochemical, and Ningxia Baofeng Phase III were under maintenance, but new production capacities from Jilin Petrochemical Phase II and Yulong Petrochemical continued to be released, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. The operating rate of the downstream agricultural film industry continued to rise, but new orders for some factories were lower than expected. The "Golden September" peak - demand season showed mediocre performance. Market sentiment was cautious, with holders offering small discounts to sell, and terminal inquiries were low, resulting in limited trading volume [1]. Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is improving, mainly due to the approaching peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports PE prices. However, recent weakening commodity sentiment has led to a decline in futures prices. In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August, and the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in the East China region. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a small inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not high [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on September 5, 2025, covering various agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil lacks continuous driving force and is waiting for a pullback; soybean oil is in a volatile adjustment; soybean meal may rebound following US soybeans, but beware of frost risks; soybean No.1 is in a rebound and volatile state; corn is in a volatile operation; sugar has a year - on - year decline in Brazilian exports; cotton requires attention to the situation of new crop listings; eggs have strong near - end gaming sentiment; live pigs have weak spot prices but strong far - end expectations; peanuts require attention to the listing of new peanuts [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's main contract closed at 9,368 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.24% increase and 9,402 yuan/ton at night with a 0.36% increase. Soybean oil's main contract closed at 8,410 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.52% decrease and 8,356 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.64% decrease. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 9,320 yuan/ton, and the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton [5] - **News**: MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a total estimated production of 1.85 million tons in August [6] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3,965 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.03% increase and 3,971 yuan/ton at night with a 0.13% increase. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,048 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.29% decrease and 3,050 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.42% decrease. The daily trading volume of soybean meal was 6.7 million tons, and the inventory was 101.49 million tons [10] - **News**: As of September 2, about 16% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought. StoneX lowered its forecast for US soybean yield in 2025 to 53.2 bushels per acre, with an expected production of 4.257 billion bushels. On September 4, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed higher due to active technical buying [7][8][12] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of +1, and soybean No.1 has a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511 closed at 2,210 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.59% increase and 2,214 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% increase. C2601 closed at 2,194 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.50% increase and 2,197 yuan/ton at night with a 0.14% increase. The trading volume of the corn market increased, and the open interest decreased [14] - **News**: The northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, and the prices in Northeast China slightly decreased, while the prices in North China decreased steadily [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [16] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 15.7 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,920 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,533 yuan/ton [17] - **News**: India's monsoon precipitation was 8.8% higher than the long - period average. Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July and August. China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons [17] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 closed at 14,010 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.14% increase and 13,960 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.36% decrease. The spot price of cotton in North Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked variety increased by 20 yuan/ton to 15,267 yuan/ton [22] - **News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the cotton yarn market was generally trading. ICE cotton futures were in a narrow - range fluctuation [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510 closed at 3,021 yuan/500 kg with a 1.41% increase, and Egg 2601 closed at 3,405 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.18% decrease. The spot prices in some regions increased [26] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [26] Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 14,080 yuan/ton, 13,850 yuan/ton, and 15,640 yuan/ton respectively, with Guangdong's price decreasing by 200 yuan/ton [28] - **Market Logic**: There is still supply pressure in September and October. Consider 11 - 1 inverse spread intervention. Pay attention to the downward - driving force of the central price of March and May contracts. The July contract may have further policy regulation expectations. The short - term support and pressure levels of LH2601 are 13,500 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [30] - **Trend Intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of 0 [29] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of PK510 and PK511 decreased. The trading volume and open interest of the peanut market changed [32] - **News**: In most peanut - producing areas, the supply was affected by rainfall, and the prices were generally stable. New peanuts are expected to be listed around late September [33] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - Gold is experiencing a cooling of sentiment [2][4] - Silver is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2][4] - For copper, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut restricts the price decline [2][9] - Zinc is in a continuous process of inventory accumulation [2][12] - The reduction of internal and external inventories supports the price of lead [2][15] - Tin is oscillating within a range [2][17] - Aluminum is oscillating within a range, alumina is operating weakly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22] - The price of stainless steel is oscillating within a narrow range [2][26] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Gold T+D showed increases, while the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 slightly decreased. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the positions of SPDR Gold ETF decreased. The inventories of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver increased [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: The US ISM services index expanded at the fastest pace in half a year, employment was weak, and prices remained high. The ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly, and the first - time unemployment claims reached the highest level since June. The trade deficit widened, and there were various statements and events related to the Fed [5][8] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7] Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Copper main contract and the London Copper 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of Shanghai Copper increased while that of London Copper decreased [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The weak JOLTS job vacancy data in the US strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The copper production in Chile in July increased slightly, and some copper - related companies had production and operation news [9][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased, while that of the London Zinc 3M electronic disk increased. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased while that of London Zinc decreased [12] - **News**: The ADP employment growth in the US in August slowed significantly, strengthening the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. The US trade deficit widened [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [14] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume and positions of some contracts decreased, and the inventories of Shanghai Lead and London Lead decreased [15] - **News**: The weak JOLTS job vacancy data in the US strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts [15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Tin main contract and the London Tin 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventories of Shanghai Tin and London Tin increased [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold - silver section, there were various economic data and events in the US [18][19][20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [21] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, the Shanghai Alumina main contract, and the Aluminum Alloy main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed, and the inventories of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy had different trends [22] - **Comprehensive News**: The US ISM services PMI expanded at the fastest pace in half a year, with weak employment and high prices [24] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is 0 (neutral), and that of alumina is - 1 (slightly bearish) [24] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the Stainless Steel main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and there were price and profit - related data in the nickel industry chain [26] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various events in the nickel - related industry in Canada, Indonesia, and China, such as production suspension, environmental violations, and policy changes [26][27][28][29][30] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31]

2025年09月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 | 铁矿石：碳元素让渡利润，矿价高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：成本预期下修，弱势震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：供给增量预期渐浓，估值回调 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 观点与策略 2025 年 9 月 5 日 铁矿石：碳元素让渡利润，矿价高位震荡 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 791.5 | 14.5 | 1.87% | | | 12601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report suggests a light - position trial long for both single - side and monthly spread trading in crude oil [1]. 2. Core View The report analyzes the current situation of the international crude oil market from multiple aspects including benchmark prices, refined oil markets, cross - regional spreads, trade dynamics, events, and other news, aiming to provide a basis for investment decisions. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Dubai (November) price is 71.525 with a daily change of - 0.43, affected by weak Asian demand and OPEC + production increase expectations [2]. - Brent (November) price is 67.51 with a daily change of 1.62, supported by North Sea oilfield maintenance but limited by high inventory [2]. - WTI (October) price is 63.97 with a daily change of 1.32, supported by record - high US crude oil exports and low Cushing inventory [2]. - Urals (CIF Augusta) price is 64.47 with a daily change of 0.07, with Russia's seaborne exports recovering but facing EU sanctions risks and maintaining a discount [2]. 3.2 Refined Oil Market Price and Dynamics - Gasoline (RBOB) has a crack spread of 4.58, with summer driving season demand still strong but ethanol blending cost rising to compress profits [2]. - Diesel (ULSD) has a crack spread of 5.43, driven by global industrial activity recovery and low - sulfur marine fuel demand [2]. - Fuel oil has a crack spread of - 2.52, with high - sulfur oil inventory积压 due to IMO2025新规 expectations [2]. 3.3 Cross - Regional Comparison - The Brent - Dubai spread is 4.08 - 4.10, with a weekly change of 0.27 and a monthly change of 0.08, affected by the approaching closure of the East - West arbitrage window and light oil surplus in the Atlantic Basin [4]. - The WTI MEH - Brent spread is - 1.45, with a weekly change of - 0.18 and a monthly change of - 0.47, due to US shale oil production increase and European refinery autumn maintenance [4]. - The Urals - Dubai spread is - 7.05, with a weekly change of 0.25 and a monthly change of 0.93, reflecting Asian buyers' procurement strategy adjustment [4]. 3.4 Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - The US GC - China trade volume is 590 MB/D with an arbitrage space of - 7.89, due to exhausted quotas of Chinese private refineries and high VLCC freight rates [4]. - The Middle East - Singapore trade volume is 814 MB/D with an arbitrage space of - 2.56, as Saudi OSP official prices have been raised for three consecutive months and Asian buyers turn to West African crude oil [4]. - The North Sea - Mediterranean trade volume is 254 MB/D with an arbitrage space of 1.37, as Italian refineries rush to buy light low - sulfur crude oil for new environmental regulations [4]. 3.5突发事件或潜在影响因素 - For the Middle East - China route, VLCC freight is 12.08 with a weekly change of - 0.15, affected by new ship deliveries and Suez Canal toll increase expectations [5]. - For the US GC - Europe route, Aframax freight is 8.63 with a weekly change of 0.22, due to pre - lease activities during the US Gulf hurricane season and fluctuating marine fuel prices [5]. - For the North Sea - Mediterranean route, Suezmax freight is 5.28 with a weekly change of - 0.07, as North African refinery maintenance reduces demand and shipowners adjust capacity deployment [5]. 3.6 Other Market News - US initial jobless claims rose to the highest level since June, with an increase of 8000 to 237,000 in the week ending August 30 [7]. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the OPEC + agreement implementation level was 102% from January to August [7]. - OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 2.784 million barrels per day [7]. - US crude oil exports increased by 74,000 barrels per day to 3.884 million barrels per day in the week ending August 29, while domestic production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day [7]. - US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 0.58% increase in the week ending August 29 [7]. - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.7 million barrels, a 0.13% increase in the week ending August 29 [7]. - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.742 million barrels per day in the week ending August 29, an increase of 508,000 barrels per day from the previous week [7]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory was 1.59 million barrels in the week ending August 29, compared with - 838,000 barrels in the previous week [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on September 4, 2025, including股指期货,国债期货, and commodity futures [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - On September 3, 2025, the stock market showed a differentiated trend. The ChiNext Index strengthened, while most other indices declined. The A - share trading volume decreased. The Hong Kong stock market also declined, but the inflow of south - bound funds reached a record high. Global stock markets showed mixed trends [14][15][17]. - On September 3, 2025, the bond market was generally positive. Treasury bond futures closed higher, and most bond yields declined. The global long - term bond selling wave intensified, but on September 4, US bond yields generally fell [38][40][43]. - On September 3, 2025, most international precious metal futures closed higher, and base metal futures showed mixed trends. Crude oil futures declined [10][11]. Specific Futures Predictions Stock Index Futures - Expected to be in a volatile consolidation on September 4, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4441 and 4481 points and support levels at 4392 and 4360 points [2]. - In September 2025, the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are expected to have a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 on September 4, 2025, is likely to have a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation, with resistance levels at 108.30 and 108.43 yuan and support levels at 108.00 and 107.91 yuan [39]. - The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 on September 4, 2025, is likely to have a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation, with resistance levels at 117.4 and 117.7 yuan and support levels at 116.7 and 116.5 yuan [43]. Commodity Futures - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver futures are expected to be relatively strong on September 4, 2025. The silver futures main contract AG2510 may reach a new high since its listing [2][3]. - **Base Metals**: Copper futures are expected to be relatively strong, while alumina and nickel futures show different trends. The alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to be weakly volatile, and the nickel futures main contract NI2510 is expected to be in a volatile consolidation [3][58][63]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil, PTA, and PVC futures are expected to be weakly volatile on September 4, 2025. The crude oil futures main contract SC2510 is likely to decline slightly [6]. - **Building Materials**: Rebar, glass, and soda ash futures are expected to be weakly volatile on September 4, 2025 [6]. Macro - Information and Trading Alerts - 12 provinces have raised the minimum wage standard this year, with an increase of about 8% - 12% in most provinces [7]. - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market and promote its stable and healthy development [7]. - China's Ministry of Commerce imposed anti - dumping duties on US fiber optic producers, with rates ranging from 33.3% to 78.2% [7]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed recently, and consumer spending is flat or declining [8]. - The number of job openings in the US in July decreased to 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months [8]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. One believes that interest rates should be cut this month, while the other thinks the current rate is appropriate [8]. - The eurozone's August composite PMI final value slightly increased, but the service industry PMI declined [8].