Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a strong performance yesterday. The主力2602 contract closed at 1,871.8 points, with an increase of 5,003 lots and a gain of 8.77%. The次主力2604 contract closed at 1,166.8 points, with an increase of 1,634 lots and a gain of 3.6%. The SCFIS on December 22 rose 5.2% from the previous period, basically in line with expectations. The predicted settlement price of the 2512 contract is between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are the freight rate level, inflection - point time, and price decline rate. The settlement price of the 2602 contract is the average of the SCFIS for three consecutive Wednesdays (weeks 4, 5, and 6). The 2602 contract can theoretically be anchored to the FAK average in week 5. Different scenarios for the 2602 contract are presented based on the price trend in week 3 [13][14]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, the risk of premium should be watched out for [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2512 closed at 1,630.1 with a daily increase of 0.21%, EC2602 at 1,719.8 with a 3.66% increase, and EC2604 at 1,128.8 with a 1.66% increase. The spread between EC2512 and EC2604 is 501.3, and between EC2602 and EC2604 is 591.0 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,589.20 points, up 5.2% week - on - week; for the US West route, it was 962.10 points, up 4.1% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was $1,533/TEU, with a bi - weekly decline of 0.3%, and for the US West route was $1,992/FEU, up 11.9% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot European Freight Rates**: Different carriers have different freight rates for 40'GP and 20'GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's 40'GP is $2,530 and 20'GP is $1,575 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.26, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.03 [1]. 2. Macro News - Maersk's Sebarok completed crossing the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on the early morning of December 19, the first Maersk ship to pass through the strait in nearly two years. It is a 6,500 - TEU ship operating on the MECL route (India - US) [8][12]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will discuss Iran's nuclear activities and the next phase of the Gaza plan with US President Trump during his visit next week. Israel is also trying to prevent the Houthi rebels in Yemen from blocking international shipping routes [8]. - Iranian state media reported that multiple cities in Iran held missile exercises [10]. 3. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In January, the weekly average capacity remains at 318,000 TEU/week, with the number of pending voyages reduced to 1. Compared with last Sunday's schedule, the capacity in weeks 1 and 3 remains unchanged. The capacity in week 2 is revised down from 332,000 to 318,000 TEU due to additional passive blank sailings on AEU7, and the capacity in week 4 is revised up from 315,000 to 329,000 TEU, becoming the week with the greatest supply pressure [12]. - **Demand Side**: Major shipping companies started the practice of cargo rolling in late December, especially the PA Alliance, which laid the foundation for the price increase in early January. Weekly bookings were slow in the first week of January, possibly related to ongoing long - term contract negotiations. The peak cargo volume may occur around mid - January (week 3) and then decline [13]. 4. Price Forecast - **2512 Contract**: The settlement price is expected to be between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - **2602 Contract**: - Neutral Scenario: The FAK average in week 3 is around $2,800/FEU, similar to week 2. The combined decline in weeks 4 and 5 is $300 - $400/FEU. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,720 - 1,800 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,800 - 1,900 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. - Optimistic Scenario: There is a final price increase in week 3, but the increase is less than $400/FEU. The 2602 contract will have an additional premium of 100 - 300 points on top of the neutral scenario, with a valuation between 1,900 - 2,200 points [14]. - Pessimistic Scenario: The price starts to decline in week 3, with a combined decline of $500 - $600/FEU in weeks 3, 4, and 5. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,580 - 1,650 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,650 - 1,750 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. 5. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, as its valuation has been significantly repaired, it is recommended to wait and see for now and make dynamic evaluations based on Maersk's opening price [15]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, it is recommended to short - sell based on the 2602 contract's valuation [15]. 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers insights and analyses on various commodities in the futures market, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro and industry news for each commodity, along with corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Platinum**: Domestic and international markets resonate, and the bullish sentiment remains unabated, with a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. - **Palladium**: The climbing pace has slowed, with an upward trend in oscillations, and a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rose as the US dollar declined, with a trend intensity of 1 [10][12]. - **Zinc**: Narrow - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][15]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [16]. - **Tin**: Supply has encountered new disruptions, with a trend intensity of 1 [18][22]. - **Aluminum**: Range - bound oscillations, with a trend intensity of 1; Alumina had a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 0; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and concerns about Indonesian policies have increased, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the news of Indonesian nickel mines has caused disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: Not specifically mentioned in a comprehensive way, but some related commodities like fuel oil and asphalt are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rose, and short - term volatility increased, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Mainly followed the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price had a narrow - range adjustment, remaining stable despite the oil price trend, with a trend intensity of 1 [80][89]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Do not chase the high price, and it is in a high - level oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **MEG**: The trend is relatively weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **LLDPE**: Some full - density products have been redirected, and the valuation support is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [94][96]. - **PP**: The PDH profit has been compressed again, and the trend is weakly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [97][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: A short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, with a trend intensity of 0 [100][102]. - **Methanol**: Oscillations are supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [112][115]. - **Urea**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [116][119]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has changed little, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - **LPG**: The external cost is relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [127][132]. - **Propylene**: There are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the short - term trend is supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [128][132]. - **PVC**: A short - term rebound, but the upward space may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [136][137]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production cut is gradually being realized, and there is a short - term rebound, with a trend intensity of 1 [168][174]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans rebounded, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations, with a trend intensity of 0 [168][174]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans rose overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate, with a trend intensity of +1 [175][177]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [175][177]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [178][181]. - **Sugar**: There is an expectation of a weak basis, with a trend intensity of 0 [182][185]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking, with a trend intensity of 0 [187][191]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting, with a trend intensity of 0 [193]. - **Hogs**: Hold the reverse spread, with a trend intensity of - 1 [195][200]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [202][204]. Others - **Logs**: Low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [59][62]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center has moved up, with a trend intensity of 0 [77][79]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [104][106]. - **Glass**: The raw sheet price is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [109][110]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Iron**: The sector and fundamentals resonate, and the trend is strongly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The long and short sentiments are intertwined, and the trend is widely oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [55][58]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Near - term contracts should focus on the opening guidance, while far - term contracts should focus on the progress of the Gaza peace talks, with a trend intensity of 0 [141][155]. - **Short Fibre**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with compressed processing fees, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0 [160]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [165][166].

2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：不追高，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：不追高，高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏弱 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20251223 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡中枢上移 | 7 | | 沥青：现货窄幅调整，背离油价持稳 | 9 | | LLDPE：全密度部分转产，估值支撑有限 | 12 | | PP：PDH利润再度压缩，趋势震荡偏弱 | 13 | | 烧碱：短期反弹，关注库存变化 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20251223 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：外盘成本偏强 | 25 | | 丙烯：供需存收紧预期，短期走势存支撑 | 25 | | PVC：短期反弹，高度或有限 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘上涨，短期波动放大 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅回弹 | 29 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4] - Silver: Reaching new highs [2][4] - Copper: With the dollar falling, the price is rising [2][8] - Zinc: Trading in a narrow range [2][11] - Lead: Reduced inventory is supporting the price [2][14] - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][16] - Aluminum: Trading within a range; Alumina: Slightly rebounding; Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Platinum: Domestic and international markets are in resonance, and bullish sentiment remains strong [2][24] - Palladium: The upward pace has slowed, and it is moving up in a volatile manner [2][24] - Nickel: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, but Indonesian policies are causing concerns [2][28] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news about Indonesian nickel mines is causing fluctuations [2][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Fundamental Data - **Price**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 979.90 with a -0.06% daily change; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4368.70 with a 0.11% daily change. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 15376 with a -0.93% daily change; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 67.395 with a 2.97% daily change [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Gold 2602 had a trading volume of 328,878 (up 87,762 from the previous day) and an open interest of 189,662 (down 7,090 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver 2602 had a trading volume of 1,904,227 (up 332,489 from the previous day) and an open interest of 337,467 (down 25,935 from the previous day) [4] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory was 91,716 kg (unchanged from the previous day); Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 36,070,160 (up 78,815 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver inventory was 899,636 kg (down 12,528 from the previous day); Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 453,176,217 (up 225,434 from the previous day) [4] News - The competition for the Fed Chairmanship is intensifying. Waller is said to have performed "outstandingly" in the interview and has the support of corporate executives. Wall Street is lobbying for Warsh, and Trump may shift his focus to the job market [4] - Fed's "third - in - command" Williams said there is no urgency to cut interest rates further, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted [4] Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 94,320 with a 1.22% daily change; the LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 11,911 with a 0.34% daily change [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Copper index had a trading volume of 404,771 (up 90,659 from the previous day) and an open interest of 645,520 (up 13,578 from the previous day). The LME Copper 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 15,865 (down 3,536 from the previous day) and an open interest of 345,000 (up 2,699 from the previous day) [8] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 48,542 (up 2,803 from the previous day); LME Copper inventory was 157,750 (down 2,650 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 32.81% (down 2.39% from the previous day) [8] News - Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru, expanding its business in the country [8] - The Peruvian Congress approved a one - year extension of temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [8] - Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons [8] Zinc Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 23,115 with a 0.17% daily change; the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3078 with a 0.65% daily change [11] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a trading volume of 134,424 (up 46,063 from the previous day) and an open interest of 90,612 (up 4,247 from the previous day). The LME Zinc had a trading volume of 8,494 (down 14,475 from the previous day) and an open interest of 229,088 (up 1,627 from the previous day) [11] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 42,590 tons (down 2,588 from the previous day); LME Zinc inventory was 99,250 tons (down 650 from the previous day) [11] News - The Japanese Finance Minister warned the foreign exchange market, suggesting that the intervention threshold has been approved by the US. The Japanese government's aggressive fiscal stimulus has pushed up Japanese government bond yields to a 27 - year high [11] - 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed does not need to cut interest rates at least until next spring, and the November CPI inflation data may be distorted [11] Lead Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16,920 with a 0.24% daily change; the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1984.5 with a 1.25% daily change [14] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Lead main contract had a trading volume of 49,244 (down 7,217 from the previous day) and an open interest of 59,586 (down 2,591 from the previous day). The LME Lead had a trading volume of 5,862 (down 6,084 from the previous day) and an open interest of 177,303 (up 635 from the previous day) [14] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory was 13,838 tons (down 349 from the previous day); LME Lead inventory was 255,950 tons (down 2,675 from the previous day) [14] News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [14] - Trump's "appointed" Fed理事Milan said the Fed will face a recession risk if it does not cut interest rates next year. A 2026 Fed voter is hawkish, saying there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months, and the November CPI is underestimated [14] Tin Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 343,040 with a 2.59% daily change; the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,975 with a 0.13% daily change [16] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Tin main contract had a trading volume of 240,305 (down 3,224 from the previous day) and an open interest of 33,801 (down 107 from the previous day). The LME Tin 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 180 (down 9 from the previous day) and an open interest of 13,988 (up 53 from the previous day) [16] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,844 (up 242 from the previous day); LME Tin inventory was 4,645 (up 220 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 6.57% (down 0.38% from the previous day) [16] News - Similar to gold and silver news, including Fed Chairmanship competition, Fed's Williams' remarks, Japanese central bank's interest rate hike, etc. [16] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 22,220. The LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2956. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract had a trading volume of 253,929 and an open interest of 314,299. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 2.70 million tons [21] - **Alumina**: The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2498. The main contract had a trading volume of 170,083 and an open interest of 151,207 [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,290. The main contract had a trading volume of 4,594 and an open interest of 17,184 [21] News - Goldman Sachs believes that the global market in 2026 will be a "Song of Ice and Fire." The asset valuation is "overheated," and AI valuation has led the fundamentals significantly [23] - China's energy storage batteries are booming, with expected global shipments to jump 75% this year [23] Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 568.45 with a 6.54% increase; palladium futures 2606 closed at 508.45 with a 5.88% increase [24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Platinum had a trading volume of 54,306 (down 99,605 from the previous day) and an open interest of 41,087 (up 3,000 from the previous day). Shanghai Palladium had a trading volume of 28,327 (down 80,134 from the previous day) and an open interest of 17,699 (up 2,478 from the previous day) [24] News - Fed理事Milan said the necessity of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has weakened. Trump may appoint a new Fed Chair in the first week of January next year [27] - The negotiation between Ukraine and the US ended, and Zelensky said the key work of the "peace plan" draft was completed [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 121,260. The 1 imported nickel price was 118,825 [28] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,850 [28] News - The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [28] - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [29] - The Indonesian government has taken various measures regarding the nickel mining and smelting industry, such as sanctions on mining companies, changes in RKAB approval procedures, and suspension of new smelting license issuance [29][30][31]

2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：厂库扩容便利仓单交割 | 4 | | 工业硅：以逢高做空思路为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：新增厂库额度，关注情绪面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 23 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,260 | 4,080 | 6,570 | 3,230 | 5,8 ...

2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 23 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块与基本面共振，走势震荡偏强 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪交织博弈，走势宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 781.5 | 1.5 | 0. 19% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) ...

2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：减产逐步兑现，短期节奏反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆反弹，豆油区间操作为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：弱基差预期 | 7 | | 棉花：期价震荡偏强，关注下游节前备货20251223 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：反套持有 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,414 | 涨跌幅 1.47% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,464 | 涨跌幅 0.59% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,772 | 0.78% | 7,782 | 0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,8 ...

2025 年 12 月 23 日 | | | | | 期指：或延续偏强震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | | maolei@gtht.com | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | 4611.6 | ↑0.95 | | 4482.4 | | | | | | IF2601 | 4591.2 | ↑0.89 | -20.42 | 411.8 | 29898 | ↓7162 | 63517 | ↓802 | | IF2602 | 4575.6 | ↑0.55 | -36.02 | 19 | 1385 | ↑1385 | 1364 | ↑1364 | | IF2603 | 4564.8 | ↑0.88 | -46.82 | 739.3 | 539 ...

2025 年 12 月 23 日 期货研究 金 融 期 货 | 期货研究 2 2025 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 | 年 12 月 23 【基本面跟踪】 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | | yukan@gtht.com | | 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | | tangli2@gtht.com | | 日，国债期货 年期主力合约下跌 12 30 0.28%，国债期货 | 月 22 | 年期主力合约下跌 10 0.09%，国债期 | | 货 5 0.06%，国债期货 2 年期主力合约下跌 0.02%。 | 年期主力合约下跌 | | | shibor 报 1.2720%，较前一交易日下跌 0.1bp，7 | 资金方面，隔夜 | 天 shibor 报 1.4170%，较前一交 | 【基本面跟踪】 12 月 22 日，国债期货 30 年期主力合约下跌 0.28%，国债期货 10 年期主力合约下跌 0.09%，国债期 货 5 年期主力合约下跌 0.06%，国债期货 2 年期主力合约下跌 0.02%。 资金方面，隔夜 shibor ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term continued observation of crude oil and recommends shorting at high prices when the opportunity arises [1] 2. Core View - The report provides price changes of international crude oil futures and analyzes the arbitrage situations of different crude oil varieties in multiple regions [1] 3. Content Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose $0.51 per barrel, a 0.91% increase, to $56.66 per barrel; ICE Brent futures 02 contract rose $0.65 per barrel, a 1.09% increase, to $60.47 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures rose 4.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.05% increase, to 431.90 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of various crude oil varieties such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, etc., were closed, with negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness or no cost - advantage [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals crude oils presented arbitrage opportunities, with arbitrage spaces of +0.55, +0.27, +2.72, and +26.47 USD/Bbl respectively; Cabinda crude oil had insufficient competitiveness [4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crude oils had arbitrage opportunities, while Azeri Light crude oil's arbitrage window was closed [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crude oils were all closed, showing weak competitiveness [7][8] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Eagle Ford crude oil was the only one presenting an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +1.04 USD/Bbl; Murban, Dubai, Bonny Light, and WTI MEH crude oils' arbitrage windows were closed [8] Key Market News - Trump mentioned stances on Venezuela; China's refined oil exports in November 2025 increased; Shandong independent refineries' crude oil arrivals increased; the exchange will waive delivery commodity registration fees from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [9][10] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [11]