Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The peanut spot market is in a weak and stable oscillation pattern with weak demand, and prices are expected to remain in this state. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness [1][2] - In the second half of August and early September, peanut supply will gradually increase, and the supply - demand relationship will be in a weak balance. The prices of new and old peanuts will restrict each other, and the procurement of the domestic market will be cautious. Pay attention to the weather in Henan [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Peanut Market Review - Spot market: As of August 14, 2025, the national average price of general peanuts was 8400 yuan/ton, a 1.18% decline from the previous week. The market was weak and stable, and demand was weak [1] - Futures market: In the week of August 15, the peanut futures declined. The highest price of the main contract (PK2511) was 8020 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7818 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7822 yuan/ton (previous week's closing was 7952 yuan/ton) [1] Peanut Market Outlook - Spot market: From mid - to late August, spring peanuts in southern and northern Henan will be listed one after another, and garlic and wheat - stubble peanuts will enter the listing period in early September. The supply will gradually increase, and the supply - demand relationship will show a weak balance. The prices of new and old peanuts will restrict each other, and the procurement of the domestic market will be cautious. Pay attention to the weather in Henan [2] - Futures market: The pattern is near - term strength and far - term weakness. The de - stocking of cold - storage peanuts by middlemen is slow, and as the new - season peanuts are approaching the listing time, the willingness to sell is increasing. The driving force for the spot price to rise is weak [2] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Henan Baisha general peanuts is weakening, while the basis of Sudan refined peanuts is strengthening [6] - Spread: The 11 - 1 spread is weakening (data update stopped), and the 10 - 11 spread is presented [7] Price Data - The raw material procurement of several peanut varieties in different regions has basically ended, and there is no comparable price [10] - The arrival volume of 6 oil - using peanut markets was about 0.52 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.02% and a year - on - year decline of 8.59%. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.2 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.35% and a year - on - year decline of 48.48%. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 0.72 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.11% and a year - on - year decline of 24.53% [13] Supply - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 74.29% and a year - on - year decline of 95% [24] Oil Mill Conditions - The mainstream quotation of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 - 15,200 yuan/ton, with stable quotations but bargaining space in actual transactions. The terminal consumption market was weak [24] - The mainstream quotation of peanut meal was 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton, with stable quotations but bargaining space in actual transactions. The terminal breeding demand was limited, and the overall transaction was light [24] - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was - 72.8 yuan/ton, a 33.4 - yuan increase from last week [24] - The comprehensive operating rate of sample enterprises was 10.06%, a 0.68% increase from last week and a 3.83% increase from the same period last year [24] - The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 1.78 million tons, a 7.2% increase from last week and a 61.48% increase from last year [24]

投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021380 李倩钰 lijunyu@gtht.com 上周观点及逻辑 棕榈油:MPOB、USDA 报告双双意外利多,油脂板块本周交投情绪高昂,获得新的突破动能,棕榈油 01 合约周涨 5.11%。 豆油;USDA 报告美豆种植面积意外下调,豆系获得底部支撑后反弹,伴随油脂新的上涨驱动。豆油 09 合约周涨 1.74%。 本周观点及逻辑: 2025年8月17日 棕榈油:马来今年库存高点已经从 4 月以来被盘面逐步消化,6 月起印尼相关价格指标持续表现扛跌 迹象,印马价差持续高位、欧洲油脂相对全球溢价提前见底、欧洲柴油裂差格外走强为 6 月起的油脂注火 新的上涨动力。从产地基本面来看,前几期周报中我们预估马来 7月库存保守估计不会累至 220 万吨以上, 中性估计不会超过 215 万吨的预估已经兑现,并带动棕榈油价格突破 9100 元/吨的平台来到 9500 元的三 年新高。邱尼方面,印马价差继续维持高位,印尼产区的各类棕榈油、果串价格居高不下,CPO 出口升贴 水反映的贸易商情绪也相对积极,无论从盘面还是现货角度看,现阶段棕榈油都相当扛跌。印尼 B50 和禁 止出口的谣言让部分市场人士 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The corn market is currently in a weak state. The spot market is generally stable with a slight decline, and the futures market has dropped due to a lack of new drivers and weak market sentiment. Multiple factors are affecting the market outlook, including the decline of CBOT corn, stable wheat prices, continuous import corn auctions, rising corn starch inventory, and the approaching new - season corn harvest [1][2][3][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review Spot Market - As of August 15, the national average corn price was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous week. Different regions had different price ranges, such as Shandong (2,450 - 2,560 yuan/ton), Henan (2,450 - 2,550 yuan/ton), etc. [1] Futures Market - In the week of August 15, the futures market declined. The main contract (C2511) had a high of 2,218 yuan/ton, a low of 2,185 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2,190 yuan/ton (down from 2,199 yuan/ton the previous week). The corn starch main 2509 contract closed at 2,614 yuan/ton on August 15. The basis of the corn main C2511 contract was stable at 120 yuan/ton on August 15 [2] Corn Market Outlook CBOT Corn - In the week of August 15, CBOT corn futures fell 0.06%. The USDA's high - expected corn production estimate led to a sharp price drop, followed by strong export sales and active short - covering [3] Wheat Price and Import Corn Auction - As of August 14, the national average wheat price was 2,442 yuan/ton. There were various corn trading results in different types of auctions, with different changes in成交率 compared to the previous week. The wheat market was supported by the start of the national mainstream产区 wheat support purchase, but the policy - based storage scale was limited. The market had sufficient supply, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs [4] Corn Starch Inventory - As of the week of August 14, the total inventory of corn starch in the main production areas was 941,500 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons (1.88% from the previous period and 2.87% from the same period last year). The weak market confidence and sluggish downstream demand led to the increase in inventory [5] Market Trend - The futures market is temporarily weak. With the approaching new - season corn harvest, the planting cost decrease has pushed down the far - month price center of the futures market, showing a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The spot market has light trading, and the corn price in the Northeast is slightly weak. The North Port is under heavy warehouse receipt pressure [7]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年8月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：社库高企，裂解续弱 供应 国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为32.9%，环比增加1.2%。分析原因主要是本周虽然东明石化停产检修，加之华东主营炼厂以及中化泉州间 歇降产以及转产，但华南个别主营炼厂、江苏新海、河南丰利以及山东个别主力炼厂间歇生产沥青，导致产能利用率增加。 需求 原油下跌加重观望情绪，沥青采购积极性有所下滑，实际成交价格弱势运行。具体来看，市场基本面表现偏弱，供应充裕的情况下需求不温不 火，供需矛盾逐渐显现，业者交投气氛遇冷；华东受雨水和资金回款不及时等方面制约，业者入市积极性欠佳，实际交投气氛冷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the pricing role of the demand side is significant, and paper prices continue to decline. The main factors affecting the market price trend are paper mills' price adjustments, production line resumptions, weak downstream demand, and limited cost - side support. Looking ahead, market supply is expected to be stable next week, but demand is unlikely to see obvious support, and there may be a possibility of further price cuts [54][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of domestic offset paper decreased by 0.43% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week. Some paper mills' inventories continued to decline, but overall inventory consumption slowed due to poor social order demand [6]. - This week, the operating load rate of domestic offset paper was 48.68%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points compared with last week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.45 percentage points week - on - week. Poor order intake led to a decline in production enthusiasm [6]. - In August, the FOB price of Brazilian eucalyptus hardwood pulp "Bird" increased by $20/ton, with a net FOB price of $510/ton [6]. - In June 2025, Canada exported 15.21 tons of softwood pulp to China, a month - on - month increase of 23.22% and a year - on - year increase of 47.83%; 2.54 tons of hardwood pulp, a month - on - month increase of 463.43% and a year - on - year increase of 31.32%; 3.82 tons of chemi - mechanical pulp, a month - on - month decrease of 24.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.07% [6]. Market Trends - As of August 15, the average price of 70g high - white offset paper was 4950 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day, and 43.75 yuan/ton lower than last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various 70g offset paper products in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased week - on - week. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits of offset paper also decreased [10]. Supply and Demand Data - **Industry Capacity**: In 2024, the domestic offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [19]. - **Weekly Data**: This week, the domestic offset paper industry output was 163,600 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.7%; the sales volume was 165,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 342,100 tons [22][30]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June, the domestic offset paper import volume was about 15,000 tons, and the export volume was about 66,000 tons [38]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory pressure of offset paper changed little, while the enterprise inventory pressure increased [44]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [50]. Market Judgment - **Supply**: This week, the domestic offset paper industry output was 163,600 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.7%. In June, the import volume was about 15,000 tons, maintaining a low level [55]. - **Demand**: This week, the domestic offset paper sales volume was 165,000 tons. In June, the export volume was about 66,000 tons. Social orders are weak, and the enthusiasm for raw paper procurement is limited [55]. - **Price**: This week, the average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white offset paper was 4,974 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%, and the decline rate widened by 0.32 percentage points; the average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white offset paper was 4,605 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50%, and the decline rate widened by 0.11 percentage points [55]. - **Valuation**: Based on the current pulp price, the pre - tax gross profit of offset paper is about - 113 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross profit is about - 273 yuan/ton. The off - season of demand compresses paper prices, and pulp prices are stable, further compressing paper enterprises' profits [55]. - **Strategy**: The futures variety has not been launched yet [55].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年08月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：继续收敛，低波仍在，传统旺季前的累库或不足为惧 年初迄今累计同比下降-0.92%，降幅仍在小幅扩大；截至8月13日铝型材产量及样本排产继续走弱。下游加工利润看，铝 棒加工费较前周持平在250元/吨，目前继续处在历年同期偏低位，但绝对加工费水位依然不算低。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝继续陷入20500-20700窄幅区间的震荡收敛态势，价格重心趋于走平。站在目前时点，我们仍倾向对工业金属不 持有看空的思路。这主要是考虑到3季度需求的回落仍有待右侧确认，光伏组件抢出口尚对出口需求有托底，且市场传言 退税取消有可能延后至11月，此前不排除抢出口对铝加工材的需求犹有支撑。 ◆ 此外，从宏观政策预期看，当下已站在"十四五"的末尾，临近"十五五"的开端，金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, after the bearish news of supply recovery was concentrated in the second quarter, there are no effective bearish factors in the fundamentals. When the producing areas enter the production - reduction period with extremely low inventories, buying palm oil at low levels will be the main theme in the second half of the year. Further price increases depend on maintaining India's import profit, the support of US soybean oil at 52 cents/pound, and the tightening of Argentine soybean oil supply and the failure of Indonesia's production recovery [5][8]. - For soybean oil, the current drivers are US soybean weather, the sustainability of soybean oil exports, and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. If palm oil fails to accumulate inventory in August and the soybean import gap persists due to Sino - US trade issues, there will be opportunities to go long on soybean oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread will show a weakening range - bound trend [7][8]. - For soybean meal, due to the bullish 8 - month USDA report, the futures price center is expected to move up. Future attention should be paid to variables such as US soybean production area weather, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and US soybean exports [17][22]. - For soybean No.1, the spot market is generally weak, but it may be driven by the rising price centers of soybean meal and soybean No.2 futures, with the price expected to rebound and fluctuate [22]. - For corn, the market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot trading is light, and the futures market is temporarily weak, waiting for the new season's supply [40][46]. - For sugar, the international market is in a low - level consolidation phase, and the next step is to focus on the opportunity to re - evaluate Brazil's production. The domestic market is in a consolidation period, with the Zhengzhou sugar futures following the trend of raw sugar and trading around the import rhythm [75][107]. - For cotton, the ICE cotton futures are in a range - bound trend. The domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and the 01 contract needs new drivers to break through the previous high [109][128]. - For hogs, the spot price oscillates, and the futures price shows a weak oscillation. The near - term futures are in a basis - narrowing market [130][131]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - Last week, the MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish, and the palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% [4]. - This week, the high inventory level in Malaysia from April has been digested. Since June, Indonesia's price indicators have been resilient, and new upward momentum has emerged. The inventory in Malaysia in July did not exceed expectations, driving the price to a three - year high. The price space in the future depends on India's import profit, the support of US soybean oil, and the situation of Argentine soybean oil and Indonesia's production [5]. - China has new ship purchases, and there may be a callback opportunity for the 1 - 5 positive spread, which can be participated in around 200 [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Last week, the USDA report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [4]. - This week, the large number of soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak domestic situation. If the trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic soybean - palm oil spread closer to the international level. Future attention should be paid to the US soybean purchase situation and Sino - US trade issues [7]. Soybean Meal - Last week, US soybean prices rose due to increased export hopes to China and the bullish USDA report. Domestic soybean meal prices followed the rise, with the main m2601 contract rising 1.39% [16][17]. - The main influencing factors include the USDA report, trade war sentiment, and US soybean fundamentals. Next week, the futures price center is expected to move up [17][22]. Soybean No.1 - Last week, the domestic soybean No.1 price oscillated. The national reserve auction continued, the spot was stable, and the demand was weak. The futures price mainly followed the fluctuations of the soybean market. The main a2511 contract fell 0.83% [17][21]. - Next week, it may be driven by the rising price centers of soybean meal and soybean No.2 futures, with the price expected to rebound and fluctuate [22]. Corn - In the spot market last week, the price was basically stable. In the futures market, the price fell due to the lack of new drivers, weak market sentiment, and low new - season planting costs [40][41]. - In the future, CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices were stable, corn starch inventory increased, and the futures market is expected to remain weak with a near - term strength and long - term weakness pattern [42][46]. Sugar - In the international market this week, the New York raw sugar price rose, and the net long position of funds increased significantly. The 24/25 crushing season is expected to have a supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to see production increase [73]. - In the domestic market, the spot price rose, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price also increased. The 24/25 season is expected to see continuous production increase and cost reduction, and the 25/26 season may see a decline in the sugar yield in Guangxi and an increase in production costs [74][75]. - The international market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation phase, and the domestic market is in a consolidation period [107]. Cotton - Last week, ICE cotton rose slightly due to the bullish USDA monthly supply - demand report, but fell in the second half of the week due to concerns about export prospects. Domestic cotton futures rose, with the 01 contract rising more significantly [109]. - The USDA report significantly lowered the US cotton planting area in the 25/26 season, resulting in a decrease in production and ending inventory. The global cotton balance sheet also had corresponding adjustments [114][115]. - ICE cotton is expected to remain range - bound, and domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the 01 contract needing new drivers to break through the previous high [128]. Hogs - This week, the spot price of hogs oscillated. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand increased due to low prices. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [130]. - The futures price showed a weak oscillation, and the basis of the LH2509 contract changed from negative to positive [131].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the London gold price dropped by -1.73%, and the London silver price fell by -1.46%. The gold-silver ratio decreased from 88.5 in the previous week to 88.4, the 10-year TIPS declined to 1.95%, the 10-year nominal interest rate rose to 4.33% (2-year 3.75%), and the US dollar index reached 97.86. The released US PPI data was significantly higher than expected, contrasting with the slightly eased CPI data, highlighting the impact of import inflation caused by tariffs and reducing the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut. Overall, it's hard to predict the trend of gold and silver. Gold is expected to weaken in the short term, but the price around 3300 remains a good buying point [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Overseas Spot-Futures Price Spread**: - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 dropped to -46.43 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -45.4 dollars per ounce [11]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 narrowed to -0.033 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -0.14 dollars per ounce [14]. - **Domestic Spot-Futures Price Spread**: - Gold: This week, the domestic gold spot-futures price spread was -3.72 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [18]. - Silver: This week, the domestic silver spot-futures price spread was -16 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [21]. - **Inter-Month Spread**: - Gold: This week, the gold inter-month spread was 6.26 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [26]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter-month spread was 71 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [29]. - **Delivery Cost of Long-Short Spread Arbitrage between Near and Far Months**: - Gold: The total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 7.57 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying December contract and selling June contract was 14.13 yuan per gram [32][33]. - Silver: The total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 94.29 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying December contract and selling June contract was 161.93 yuan per kilogram [34][35]. - **Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Spot Gold and Silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange**: This week, for gold at the gold exchange, the deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the same was true for silver [36]. - **Inventory and Position-to-Inventory Ratio**: - Gold: This week, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.05 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 38.64%. The domestic gold futures inventory increased by 300 tons [38][42]. - Silver: This week, the COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.06 million ounces to 507.55 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 37.5%. The domestic silver futures inventory decreased by 16.83 tons to 1158 tons [40][42]. - **CFTC Non-Commercial Positions in Gold and Silver**: This week, the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold and silver both slightly declined [44]. - **ETF Positions**: - Gold: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 6.27 tons [49]. - Silver: This week, the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 40.96 tons [51]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold-silver ratio decreased from 88.7 last week to 88.4 [53]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1M gold lease rate was -0.23%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 1.77% [55] Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Non-Farm Payroll Performance**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Probability of Fed Interest Rate Cut**: The table shows the probability of interest rate hikes or cuts in different regions and time points, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term strategy: Short - term observation, hold long - short spreads. The global crude oil supply pattern is undergoing significant adjustments, and demand shows obvious regional and structural differences. Brent and WTI may challenge $80/barrel in the second half of the year, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. In the medium - to - long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices [6]. - Logic: In the third quarter, the market is bullish, with the rhythm possibly adjusted to the second half of the quarter, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. Overseas macro - market risk appetite has deteriorated, and potential sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a decline in exports. In the medium - to - long term, there is a bearish outlook due to long - term oversupply pressure from production increases by OPEC+ and other countries [6]. - Strategies: Hold long positions in the short term; in the long term, short at high prices and trend short. Pay attention to long - short spreads (buy SC10, sell 11 and 12), and remain on the sidelines for cross - variety trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - OPEC+ production increase in July fell short of expectations. Eight OPEC+ member countries plan to fully lift the "voluntary production cuts" in September, releasing 547,000 barrels per day of sour crude oil supply. Saudi Arabia has increased exports to the Asia - Pacific region. Non - OPEC+ producers show a differentiated trend: U.S. shale oil production is expected to decrease by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025, while emerging producers such as Guyana and Brazil are seeing rising production. Russia has successfully transferred its supply through the Asian market, and Venezuela has resumed exports [6][8][9]. - Supply situation by country: Iraq's production is limited; the UAE's production and exports are high, with planned maintenance in October; Saudi Arabia has raised its official selling prices for Asia in September; Nigeria's exports are increasing; Angola's exports are under pressure; Russia's exports to India have decreased, but exports to China have increased; Norway's medium - sour crude oil prices have fallen [8]. 3.2 Demand - Global crude oil demand shows obvious regional and structural differences. China is increasing its strategic reserve construction, with land - based crude oil inventories increasing at a daily rate of 700,000 barrels from March to July, accounting for 75% of the global inventory increase during the same period. The U.S. refineries are operating at high loads, but gasoline demand growth is restricted. The European market is facing an oversupply of jet fuel. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil under U.S. pressure [6][11]. - Demand situation by country: In China, gasoline demand has decreased by 8.1% year - on - year, diesel demand has increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and aviation fuel demand has increased by 11.1% year - on - year. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil and turned to U.S. and Middle Eastern crude oil, resulting in a decline in refinery processing volume in June [11]. 3.3 Macro - Pay attention to the Russia - U.S. negotiations and the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [13][19][24]. 3.4 Price, Spread and Position - North American basis has rebounded slightly. The monthly spread has fallen to a low level. SC is stronger than the external market, and the monthly spread has weakened. Net long positions have declined [77][78][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead supply is under pressure, and the consumption of lead-acid batteries has not improved. The price is expected to fluctuate. The supply side is the core logic, with strong price support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash-and-carry arbitrage in Shanghai lead [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,780 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of -0.42%. The LME lead 3-month contract decreased by 1.70%. The LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 11.95 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The spread between regenerated lead and primary lead remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The contango structure of Shanghai lead has narrowed [9]. - **Inventory**: From August 7th to August 15th, domestic lead inventory increased slightly from 71,100 tons to 71,700 tons. The inventory of Shanghai lead 09 contract is relatively high, and the spot discount has narrowed. The LME lead inventory decreased by 7,275 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 3.79% [8][9]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 32,601 lots, an increase of 1,593 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 51,207 lots, a decrease of 7,916 lots. The trading volume of the LME 3-month lead contract was 3,833 lots, a decrease of 1,522 lots. The position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [9]. Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Regenerated Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The weekly average of the 60% lead concentrate spot import TC was -80 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of imported lead concentrate was -1,652 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the profit was -2,500 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure. Although the smelting enterprises in Henan have resumed normal production after maintenance, the smelting maintenance in Liaoning, Hunan, Jiangxi and other places has affected part of the output. The weekly average of the primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate has decreased [8]. - **Regenerated Lead**: The regenerated lead has been in a loss state for a long time, with a loss of about 423 yuan/ton, and the loss has widened compared to the previous week. The regenerated lead enterprises in Guizhou, Jiangsu, Ningxia and other places have carried out maintenance, affecting part of the output. The operating rate of regenerated lead is at a historical low [5][8]. - **Import and Export**: The refined lead net import volume, lead ingot import volume, and lead ingot export volume are provided in the report, and the lead spot import profit and loss has changed [47]. Lead Demand: Lead-Acid Batteries and End-Users - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The current consumption of lead-acid batteries is average, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises is stable. Large battery factories have started to reduce prices to pressure inventory on dealers. However, the market expects the consumption to pick up after September, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises may increase, and they will increase raw material inventory on dips [8]. - **End-Users**: The actual lead consumption, automobile production, and motorcycle production data are provided in the report, reflecting the end-user demand situation [52].