Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large number of upstream factories resume production, the disk trend follows coking coal futures, but the fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high positions and take profits at low positions in the short - term, and not hold positions for a long time. The expected disk range next week is 8500 - 9100 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct selling hedging [6][8]. - For polysilicon, with more event disturbances next week, the idea is mainly to go long on dips. The expected disk range next week is 50000 - 60000 yuan/ton. After digesting the negative impact of the second batch of registered brands this week, it is recommended to take profits on the inter - period positive spread of PS2511 and PS2512 opportunistically, and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea. Polysilicon downstream wafer factories are recommended to conduct buying hedging [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The disk showed a volatile trend, and the spot price increased. It closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8700 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 150), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was reported at 9000 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100) [2]. - Polysilicon: The disk had a wide - range shock and was generally strong. It closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday. There was partial spot trading in the downstream, but the transaction price did not show obvious improvement [2]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The start - up in the southwest region continued to rise, and some factories in Xinjiang resumed production but at a slow pace. The inventory of futures warrants decreased compared with last week, with a warrant inventory increase of 0.1 million tons this week. The social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: The short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production of polysilicon increased, and the weekly production of organic silicon also increased. The aluminum alloy had rigid demand orders, and the export market was inactive [4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The polysilicon production schedule in August is expected to reach 130,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased [4]. - Demand side: After a brief repair of wafer profits, the output increased. The short - term wafer inventory was relatively low, and some wafer factories increased production. The price increase of some wafers and battery cells was accepted, but there was no information on the price increase and transaction of components [5]. Market Data Charts - The report provides a series of charts, including the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and warehouse transaction prices of industrial silicon, domestic industrial silicon social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, polysilicon spot price, production and year - on - year change, industry start - up rate, import and export volume, industry profit calculation, single - crystal wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity, domestic DMC average price trend, industry monthly start - up rate, production and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume of primary - form polysiloxane, industry profit calculation, price seasonality of recycled aluminum ADC12, industry monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation, and domestic automobile monthly sales seasonality [9][11][12][15][18][22][23][24][27]

1. Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week's pulp outlook is slightly bullish. International pulp mills' production cuts and product conversions support the current pulp prices from falling, and the increase in foreign market prices further boosts market sentiment. However, the demand market is currently slow to follow up. Whether pulp prices can continue to rise or surge significantly depends on the shipment status and production fluctuations in the demand-side base paper market. Additionally, macro - policy stimuli can also affect the price fluctuations of pulp futures. It is recommended to monitor port inventory levels and base paper demand [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of August 14, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons or 10.5%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1.375 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.7%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 18.0%. The total inventory of major sample ports was 2.099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons or 2.5% [6]. - Brazil's Suzano announced a reduction of nearly 500,000 tons in commodity pulp production over the next 12 months, equivalent to about 1% of the global demand for 40 million tons of hardwood pulp [6]. - China's pulp imports in July 2025 were 2.877 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The cumulative imports for the year were 21.455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.5% [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the basis for coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 544 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% but a year - on - year increase of 29.52%. The basis for Russian Needle was - 6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 110.34% and a year - on - year increase of 80.00%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.70% and a year - on - year increase of 22.22% [12]. - As of August 15, 2025, the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.84%. The 01 - 05 month - spread was 30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36.36% [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp decreased. As of August 15, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.78% but a year - on - year increase of 57.14%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 83.33% [24]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp improved. As of August 15, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 36.74 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a year - on - year increase of 81.82%. The import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was 87.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 769.10% and a year - on - year increase of 123.39% [28]. - The price of coniferous pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Pine, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,150 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, and 5,300 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Russian Needle increased by 1.53% month - on - month [29]. - The price of broad - leaf pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Birdie, and Broadleaf were 4,200 yuan/ton, 4,200 yuan/ton, 4,150 yuan/ton, and 4,150 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases ranging from 2.44% to 2.94% [36]. - The price of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 4,900 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged month - on - month [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - In June 2025, European port pulp inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while global pulp shipments in May increased month - on - month [41]. - In June 2025, the performance of pulp imports continued to diverge. Coniferous pulp imports decreased by 6.07% month - on - month, while broad - leaf pulp imports increased by 10.96% month - on - month [45]. 3.3.3 Demand - The capacity utilization rates of some finished paper products showed an upward trend. As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.58%, 63.50%, 56.27%, and 57.18% respectively [49]. - The prices of finished paper products were generally weak. As of August 15, 2025, the average prices of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper decreased to varying degrees month - on - month [50]. - The profits of finished paper products weakened [61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 235,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.02%. The warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory warehouse) was 19,200 tons, remaining unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 42.05% [66]. - Overall, port inventory was at a medium level for the year, and the inventory of major domestic ports showed an upward trend this period. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased, while Changshu Port's inventory increased [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium price is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend for about a month due to supply disturbances and potential demand growth. If downstream demand strengthens in September, lithium prices are likely to continue rising [3]. - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range between 85,000 and 95,000 yuan per ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Price Trends - The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2511 contract closed at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 9,940 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 10,800 yuan/ton to 82,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The SMM spot-futures basis (2509 contract) rose 520 yuan/ton to -4,220 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was -310 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton week-on-week. The 2509 - 2511 contract spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: After Yichun Times stopped mining, the lithium carbonate price strengthened. There are concerns about long - term production halts in smelting enterprises after using up equity and inventory ores. In Qinghai, mining license renewals and potential over - production issues may lead to production uncertainties in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Demand**: In August, the downstream production schedule demand is expected to improve significantly. The production schedule of cathode materials shows an 8.8% month - on - month increase for iron - lithium and a 9.2% increase for ternary materials. This week, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 216,000 units, down 11.84% week - on - week but up 0.93% year - on - year, with the growth rate significantly narrowing [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with the inventory at 142,000 tons, down 162 tons week - on - week. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 23,500 tons [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - **Outlook**: Due to the time needed for maritime replenishment of ore exports, lithium prices will likely remain strong for about a month. If downstream demand strengthens in September, a supply - to - demand procurement concern will form, and lithium prices are expected to stay strong [3]. - **Single - sided Trading**: The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - period Trading**: In the short term, due to supply shortages, a positive spread arbitrage is recommended. In the long term, with a negative long - term contract basis and an expected increase in warehouse receipts, a reverse spread arbitrage is suitable [5]. - **Hedging**: As prices are expected to rise, upstream enterprises are advised to set prices for sales and not to sell for hedging. Downstream enterprises are not advised to buy for hedging because the spot price is significantly lower than the futures price [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week (8.11 - 8.17), the spot market for live pigs saw prices fluctuating. The futures market showed weak fluctuations. Next week (8.18 - 8.24), the spot price of live pigs is expected to run weakly, and may hit a new low this year. The price of the LH2509 futures contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract [1][2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review (8.11 - 8.17) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs fluctuated. The 20KG piglet price in Henan was 33.1 yuan/kg (last week: 35.1 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan was 13.88 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), and the national 50KG binary sow price was 1611 yuan/head (last week: 1614 yuan/head). The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume. The average slaughter weight was 124.03KG, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% [1] - **Futures Market**: The price of the live pig futures LH2509 contract showed weak fluctuations, with a high of 14030 yuan/ton, a low of 13800 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13825 yuan/ton (last week: 13930 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 55 yuan/ton (last week: - 50 yuan/ton) [2] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook (8.18 - 8.24) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. The supply pressure in the second half of August is large, and the demand increment is limited. The spot price may hit a new low this year [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, and the basis will gradually turn to a contango delivery structure. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week's basis was 55 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was - 120 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply**: This week's average weight was 124.03KG (last week: 124.04KG). In June, the pork production was 529.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%; the pork import was 8.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View Glass - The medium - term adjustment may not be over, and the market still faces pressure. The previous policy proposals and peak - season expectations triggered a rebound, but factors such as weak basis, delivery, and high inventory have led to a market decline. The forward 01 contract has a large premium, causing short - term disturbances, but the market remains under pressure before the delivery pressure ends [2]. 纯碱 - The short - term trend is weak and volatile, and the downward pressure persists. The previous overcrowded short positions in the futures market led to a short - squeeze rally. The strengthening basis during the short - term decline is unfavorable for futures prices. The supply side is not actively reducing production, and the market is under pressure [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - As of August 14, 2025, there are 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass is 159,600 tons, unchanged from July 7th. The daily loss of float glass is 40,450 tons, and the weekly loss is 283,150 tons, both unchanged from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting capacity of cold - repaired lines is 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting capacity of ignited lines is 12,110 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting capacity of 8,630 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. Short - term production reduction space is limited, but there may be a certain - scale production cut in the fourth quarter if demand is poor in the third quarter [17][18]. Demand - The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a 2.7% increase from the previous period and a 1.55% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders in the southern region have not improved significantly, and the deep - processing profit is still low. Attention should be paid to the phased restrictions on deep - processing operations in some northern regions [2]. Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.426 million heavy cases, a 2.55% increase from the previous period and a 5.94% decrease year - on - year. The inventory days are 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The overall sales rate in North China has increased, but the inventory has increased. In Central China, the downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and the inventory has continued to rise [2]. Price and Profit - The market price has slightly declined this week, with a slower decline rate. The price in Shahe is around 1,140 - 1,180 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region it is 1,040 - 1,140 yuan/ton (down 40 - 80 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, some large manufacturers' prices are 1,240 - 1,280 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The spot market is weaker recently, the basis has slightly weakened, and the inter - month spread is weak. The profit from petroleum coke is about 87 yuan/ton, and the profits from natural gas and coal fuels are about - 171 and 92 yuan/ton respectively [30][33]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,100 - 1,150 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [2]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the price is oscillating strongly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 18.5 - 19 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous period [51][53]. Capacity and Inventory - Recently, supply has been reduced, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. There are 408 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, unchanged from the previous week and a 16.71% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 25.32 days, a 5.98% decrease from the previous period, with a narrowing decline rate [54][55][59]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed operation, and the operating rate has increased. This week, the domestic soda ash production is 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate is 87.2%, up from 85.4% last week. Some plants are under maintenance or have reduced production loads, and some have plans for future maintenance [3][64][66]. Inventory - The inventory is about 1.894 million tons. The light soda ash inventory is 760,000 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1338 million tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [4][68]. Price and Profit - Market quotes have been lowered, and the reduction by traders is greater than that by manufacturers. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,280 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 9 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 34.4 yuan/ton [78][80][84]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,300 - 1,330 and lower support at 1,180 - 1,200. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 17, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views LPG Section - Short - term valuation is reasonable, and the market will move in a range. Domestic civil gas supply and demand remain loose, with prices showing weak and narrow fluctuations. Ether - post C4 prices are in an upward - trending pattern. In the next week, civil demand will remain seasonally weak, and the short - term boost to the overall chemical end's operating rate is limited [3]. Propylene Section - Supply and demand are tightening, and prices have certain support. Although the supply will increase after the restart of some devices, there is still a large supply - demand gap in Shandong in August and September, and price support is expected to remain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part - Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices: Except for Shandong domestic gas, the price centers have all been adjusted upwards. For example, the prices of East China and South China civil gas and imported gas have increased to varying degrees [7][10]. - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: The Panama Canal has slow passage, resulting in high freight rates; FEI discounts have narrowed; the arbitrage window from the US Gulf to the Far East has improved compared to last week [19]. - Propane prices: Some propane price indices have changed, such as the AFEI index increasing by 2.39% to 524.00 USD/t [32]. LPG Part - Supply - US propane shipments: Shipments to Japan and South Korea have significantly decreased on a week - on - week basis. Shipments to China this week are 50,000 tons, and Kpler statistics show that next week's shipments will increase significantly [3][45]. - Canadian propane shipments: There is no significant change in shipments [46]. - Middle East LPG shipments: Overall shipments have decreased compared to last week, and shipments to India have declined from a high level, while shipments to China have decreased [47][53]. - Imports of China, India, Japan, and South Korea: India's imports have increased, while China's imports have declined [60]. - LPG commodity volume: The total commodity volume is 521,000 tons (-1.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 216,000 tons (-0.6%) [3][61]. - Propane commodity volume: China's propane supply this week is 62,690 tons, a 10.35% week - on - week increase. Domestic refinery commodity volume has decreased by 2.66%, and the international ship arrival volume is 583,000 tons [75]. LPG Part - Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate has increased, while MTBE operating rate has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks after 8 consecutive weeks of increase [78]. - LPG domestic refinery inventory: The week - on - week change is small [82]. - LPG terminal imported cargo inventory: Shandong and South China (excluding Fujian) have accumulated inventory, while other regions have reduced inventory [96]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Propylene industry chain operating rate: The overall operating rate of the industry has changed slightly. For example, the operating rate of PDH has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 76.33% [107]. - Propylene industry chain prices: Upstream prices such as Brent and WTI have slightly decreased; propylene prices in different regions have different trends, with Shandong prices first rising and then falling, and East China prices rising slightly [110]. - Propylene industry chain profits: Some profit indicators have changed, such as MTO profit increasing by 75 yuan/ton to - 304 yuan/ton [4]. Propylene Part - Balance Sheet - Propylene national balance sheet - Supply: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 524,000 tons, with a 4.01% increase in the weighted operating rate [129]. - Propylene national balance sheet - Demand: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is 524,000 tons, with a - 0.22% change in the weighted operating rate [130].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] Report Date - August 17, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021184 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment has eased, and steel prices are oscillating [3] Logic Summary Market Sentiment - The coking coal exchange has imposed position limits again, and the Economic Daily has published an article stating that anti-involution will not drive up general prices, leading to a缓和 in market sentiment [5] Macroeconomic Factors - **Overseas**: US PPI has soared by 3.3% year-on-year, with the month-on-month increase reaching a two-year high, indicating increased producer pressure. The expectation of an unexpected interest rate cut in September has been revised [5][9] - **Domestic**: The anti-involution trading has cooled off. The Politburo meeting on July 30 removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1. The statement "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" has been changed to "promote capacity management in key industries", emphasizing the optimization of market competition order and the regulation of corporate disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations [5][8] Black Industry Chain - Steel demand remains stable during the off-season, with decent profits and low inventories. The daily consumption of scrap steel has rebounded, while the decline in hot metal production is slow, resulting in an ineffective negative feedback transmission [5][11] Section Summaries Rebar Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3320 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3188 (-25) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 132 (+5) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -81 (-8) yuan/ton [14] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low. Additionally, demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [17][20][21] - **Inventory and Production**: High profits have stimulated steel mills to resume production, leading to an accumulation of steel inventories. The production of long and short process rebar and their corresponding inventories are also presented [23][24] - **Production Profit**: The expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 226 (-63) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 207 (-42) yuan/ton. The valley electricity profit of East China rebar was 126 (-54) yuan/ton [29][33] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3460 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3439 (+11) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 21 (-1) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was 7 (+8) yuan/ton [35] - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, closing the export window [36][39][40] - **Inventory and Production**: Speculative demand has declined, leading to a faster accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventories. Production has also decreased [42][44] - **Production Profit**: Similar to rebar, the expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 200 (-31) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 308 (-6) yuan/ton [46][48] Variety Spread Structure - Opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread are worth noting [49] Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are presented [58][59][60] Cold Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate are provided [62][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the urea market will maintain a range - bound pattern. The willingness to short at the fundamental valuation support level is weak due to anti - involution policies and policy uncertainties. In the long - term, with clearer policies, it is recommended to short at high prices under the background of high fundamental pressure [2]. - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, and the daily output remains high. The raw material price is stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost of urea currently corresponds to a profitable state [2][29][37]. - The export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent export volume may increase. The domestic demand is weak, with the agricultural demand decreasing and the industrial demand being sluggish [2][43]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices (domestic and international), including the basis of different enterprises, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 monthly spreads, and the spot prices of different regions and types of urea [5][9][15][20]. Domestic Supply Capacity - In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 tons, with many new projects put into production or planned [24]. Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including information such as enterprise name, annual capacity, raw materials, model, parking and starting dates, and reasons [28]. Output - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, but the daily output remains high. The charts show the historical trends of China's daily urea output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea [29][30]. Cost - The raw material price is stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides a cost calculation table for fixed - bed factories in the Shanxi region [32]. Profit - The cash - flow cost of urea currently corresponds to a profitable state, and the charts show the historical trends of the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different cost - based urea [37][38]. Net Import (Export) - The export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent export volume may increase. The table shows the monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 - 2025 [43]. Domestic Demand Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics, and the demand for urea in corn has increased due to high - standard farmland construction [49][52]. Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The charts show the historical trends of the production cost, factory inventory, production gross profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers [56][57][58]. - **Melamine**: The charts show the historical trends of the production gross profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [60][61]. - **Real Estate**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The charts show the export volume of wood products and the cumulative data of real estate completion and construction areas [62][63]. Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%. By August 14, 2025 (week 33), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 464,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.93% [67]. International Urea - The charts show the historical trends of international urea spot prices, including the FOB prices of large - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and China, and the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [20][71][72][73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term futures price of iron ore still has macro and micro support. Although the enthusiasm for chasing high prices of black commodities has declined, the macro - expectations reflected in other major asset sectors are not weak, and the active production of downstream steel mills supports the short - term price of iron ore [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Market Overview - The main 01 contract price of iron ore first rose and then fell this week, closing at 776.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 447,000 lots, an increase of 92,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 258,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 119,000 lots [7] - Imported iron ore spot prices rose slightly week - on - week, with high - grade Carajas fines having a relatively large price increase [12] Supply Side - Global iron ore shipments have been relatively stable recently. There are some differences in shipments between Australia and Brazil. Rio Tinto's shipments are continuously catching up with last year's progress. Among non - mainstream suppliers, shipments from India and Peru are relatively weak, and Ukraine had its first overseas shipment since November last year [5][21][27] - The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic iron ore mines has increased month - on - month with the recovery in North China [32] Demand Side - The production of hot metal and five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, showing a large increase compared with the same period last year, which supports the immediate demand for iron ore spot (also confirmed by port ore handling volume) [5][34] - Recently, the arrival volume of scrap steel has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the spot price of scrap steel is sticky. This week, it increased slightly month - on - month, while the cost of hot metal increased more. The price difference between scrap and hot metal continued to narrow [35] Inventory Side - The powder ore inventory has been rising continuously, and the destocking trend at ports has slowed down [38][40] Downstream Profit - Behind the high - level operation of steel mills' production, the positive profit of finished steel products is shrinking [42] Price Spread - The price differences between Carajas fines - PB fines and Tangshan iron concentrate - PB fines have both widened recently [45] - The 1 - 5 price spread of the iron ore futures contract has been relatively stable this week [47] - As the maturity date approaches, the basis of the 09 contract is gradually approaching par, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has also slightly shrunk month - on - month, basically the same as the basis amplitude in the same period last year [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures are in a range - bound oscillation. The USDA's reduction of the 2025/26 US cotton planting area and production strengthens the support at 66 cents per pound, but the weak global cotton demand leads to poor US cotton export demand, and the upward momentum is insufficient without improvement in US cotton exports or more actual production cuts from major exporters [20]. - Domestic cotton futures rose again this week. The 01 - contract's increase was significantly greater than that of the 09 - contract, and the CF9 - 1 spread continued to widen. The CF509 contract is mainly about delivery logic, and the 01 - contract is affected by import quota policies and external market sentiment, but the expected high - yield of new crops limits the increase. The 01 - contract needs new drivers to break through the previous high, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - ICE Cotton Main - continuous: Opened at 66.55, reached a high of 68.50, a low of 66.55, and closed at 67.48, up 0.84 or 1.26%. The trading volume was 141,171 lots, an increase of 24,529 lots, and the open interest was 154,300 lots, a decrease of 5,436 lots [5]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous: Opened at 13,645, reached a high of 14,235, a low of 13,615, and closed at 14,120, up 480 or 3.52%. The trading volume was 1,098,037 lots, an increase of 457,089 lots, and the open interest was 477,620 lots, an increase of 216,824 lots [5]. - Cotton Yarn Main - continuous: Opened at 19,580, reached a high of 20,280, a low of 19,550, and closed at 20,185, up 580 or 2.96%. The trading volume was 40,982 lots, an increase of 10,492 lots, and the open interest was 21,336 lots, an increase of 4,283 lots [5]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rose slightly this week. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report on Tuesday was bullish, causing ICE cotton to rise as it unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US cotton planting area, reducing production and ending stocks. However, concerns about US cotton export prospects led to a decline in the second half of the week, with only a slight weekly increase [6]. - USDA monthly supply - demand report: In the US cotton balance sheet, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area was cut by 840,000 acres, production dropped from 14.6 million bales in July to 13.21 million bales, and exports were cut by 500,000 bales, resulting in ending stocks being cut by 1 million bales to 3.6 million bales. In the global cotton balance sheet, the 2024/25 ending stocks (2025/26 beginning stocks) were cut by 1.73 million bales, mainly in China (1.05 million bales) and Brazil (510,000 bales). The 2025/26 global cotton production was cut by 1.8 million bales, with the US down 1.39 million bales, Central Asia down 310,000 bales, and West Africa down 140,000 bales, while China was up 500,000 bales. Global cotton consumption was cut by 130,000 bales, with India down 500,000 bales, Bangladesh down 300,000 bales, Turkey down 200,000 bales, and Central Asia down 100,000 bales, while China was up 100,000 bales [7]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending August 7, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 54,900 tons, with Vietnam contracting 27,000 tons and Bangladesh 9,100 tons; 2026/27 contracts were 200 tons. The 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 32,300 tons, a 22% week - on - week decrease, with Vietnam shipping 7,900 tons and Pakistan 5,900 tons [8]. - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: The sowing progress is still slower than last year. As of August 8, the cotton planting area was 10.7 million hectares, a 3.2% year - on - year decrease. The total sales reached 7.4 million bales, and the Cotton Corporation of India's inventory was 2.6 million bales. The season's arrivals reached 30.49 million bales (170 kg per bale) [9]. - Brazil: Exports in July decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. Cotton production was slightly cut to 3.9348 million tons due to a slight cut in the yield forecast in Bahia. July raw cotton exports were 127,000 tons, slightly lower than June and a 24% year - on - year decrease, in line with seasonal patterns. Turkey was the main customer (19%), followed by Bangladesh (16%), Vietnam (14%), and Pakistan (13%) [9]. - Australia: Exports were strong in June. Cotton fields are in pre - sowing preparation. June raw cotton exports were 128,900 tons, higher than the previous month but a 9% year - on - year decrease. China was the largest buyer (23%), followed by India (20%) and Vietnam (18%). From August 2024 to June 2025, the cumulative exports in the first 11 months of the season were 966,500 tons, lower than last year. China accounted for 26%, Vietnam 24%, and India's share rose from 4% in 2023/24 to 13% [10][11]. - Pakistan: Import demand is moderate. The cotton plants are in good condition, and pests are under control. The expected cotton production is between 6.5 and 7.5 million bales. The cotton market supply is limited, and spinners' demand is stable, supporting prices. Many ginneries are over - sold, and the seed - cotton price has strengthened. The cotton import demand remains at a normal level, mainly for Brazilian cotton [11]. - Bangladesh: Cotton import demand may rise, and garment exports were strong in July. After the US tariff policy announcement, textile and garment orders increased. Many manufacturers are seeking to increase the use of US cotton for tariff exemptions. Cotton purchases have increased to meet downstream demand. In July, knitted and woven garment exports were $3.96 billion, a 42% increase from June and a 25% increase from the same period last year [12]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending August 15, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 73%, unchanged from last week and in August, with a July average of 73.25%; Vietnam's was 63%, unchanged from last week, with an August average of 63.17% and a July average of 64.25%; Pakistan's was 64%, unchanged from last week and in August, with a July average of 62% [12]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot prices rose slightly and trading improved slightly. As of the week ending August 15, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose slightly, and spot trading was better than last week, but spinners mainly maintained just - in - time purchases. The quality mismatch between Xinjiang and inland spot inventories was more obvious. The low - basis southern Xinjiang lint in Xinjiang warehouses continued to decrease, while there was relatively more southern Xinjiang lint in inland warehouses. Xinjiang warehouses were mainly quoting northern Xinjiang prices, with a small amount of low - basis spot available. The basis was generally stable [13]. - Cotton warehouse receipt situation: As of August 15, there were 7,829 registered No. 1 cotton warehouse receipts and 249 pending receipts, totaling 8,078 receipts, equivalent to 339,276 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 7,510 Xinjiang cottons (220 in northern Xinjiang, 407 in southern Xinjiang, and 6,883 in inland warehouses) and 319 local cottons [14]. - Downstream situation improved slightly. The pure - cotton yarn market trading improved, with downstream replenishment purchases increasing. Spinners' quotes rose slightly. In terms of varieties, air - jet spinning and regular varieties had mainly just - in - time transactions. Profits changed little, with inland spinners' C32S cash - flow losses at around 500 yuan per ton and Xinjiang spinners still having a small profit. Spinners' inventories decreased slightly. The startup rate changed little, and inland spinners continued to limit production. The demand improvement in the pure - cotton grey fabric market was not sustainable, and weavers' confidence was still low. Prices were quoted higher, and actual transactions were negotiated based on quantity. Weavers' overall orders did not improve significantly, the startup rate increased slightly, and inventories decreased slowly. There was no improvement in inquiries and samples, and real orders were still scarce. In the export market, some brand traceability orders were placed, and export orders increased slightly month - on - month. Overall, orders in the knitted fabric market increased limitedly, and home textile and woven orders were poor. Weavers mostly maintained a just - in - time purchase strategy, with a slight increase in purchases. The market confidence was generally low [15]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including those on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinners' cotton inventory, weavers' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises'棉纱 inventory, cotton - cloth enterprises' cotton - cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton - cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [17][18][19]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are expected to remain range - bound. The reduction of US cotton planting area and production strengthens the support, but the weak global demand restricts the upward momentum. - Domestic cotton futures are expected to oscillate. The 01 - contract needs new drivers to break through the previous high, and attention should be paid to the external cotton market and Xinjiang weather [20].