Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 17, 2025 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co - Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc smelting production enthusiasm is high, and the start - up rate remains at a high level, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - The galvanizing start - up rate has marginally increased [3]. - The inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The supply is increasing while the demand is in a weak off - season pattern. In the short term, zinc prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. During the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand in the off - season, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Performance**: The previous week's closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract was 22,505 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.04%. The night - session closing price was 22,390 yuan, with a decline of 0.51%. The previous week's closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,796.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 1.32% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 83,222 lots, an increase of 1,794 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 76,347 lots, a decrease of 18,548 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 10,973 lots, an increase of 2,571 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 190,988 lots, a decrease of 2,970 lots [6]. - **Basis Changes**: LME zinc's cash - to - 3 - month spread decreased by 4.99 dollars to - 5.22 dollars. The bonded area zinc premium increased by 140 dollars to 140 dollars. The Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 10 yuan to - 50 yuan [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased [8]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are relatively good. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median level. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median level. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [10][11]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical median level. The refined zinc start - up rate has declined but is still at a historical high level. The downstream galvanizing start - up rate has increased, while the die - casting zinc start - up rate has decreased, both at relatively low historical levels [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium has slightly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][22]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the backwardation [24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has shown a stable and rising trend at a low level, and the inventory - to - open - interest ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decrease and at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period. The bonded area inventory is stable, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [30][36][39]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [40]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined. Domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level. The increase rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a historical high level [43][44]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered. Smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [45][48]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly decreased, mostly at medium - to - low levels compared to the same period [54][57]. - The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [69]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity are presented in the report, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters is also analyzed [70 - 74].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年8月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：海外premium出现回落 强弱分析：偏弱 价格区间：260000-268000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 09-01 09-15 09-25 10-14 10-25 11-05 11-17 11-27 12-09 12-20 12-31 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 202 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - **Market News**: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - **Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - **Driving Factors**: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline until a rebound over the weekend. Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil exports have been increasing in August, while imports in the Middle East and China remain low due to weak power generation and refining demand, resulting in weak high-sulfur prices in Asia. In the low-sulfur market, short-term spot supplies in the Asia-Pacific region are still abundant. Kuwait and Indonesia have increased their low-sulfur exports to the Asia-Pacific this month, and Japanese refineries are gradually resuming production, which will further increase spot supplies and suppress spot prices in the Asia-Pacific. In the domestic market, the newly issued export quotas are the core factor affecting the market trend. If the quota is too low, it may support short-term prices; if the quota increases significantly year-on-year, it means that future port spot supplies will remain abundant, and the prices of near-month contracts will continue to be suppressed [4]. - Valuation: FU: 2650 - 2800; LU: 3400 - 3500 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Follow crude oil and remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - term: The contango structure of the near - end of FU and LU will continue. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread has fallen to the historical average but may still have a small downward space; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operation: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries over the years [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 to 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 to 2025 are shown [20]. Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 to 2025 are presented [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on the spot inventories of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 to 2025 are provided [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are presented [35][36][37]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, Northwest Europe, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are provided [39][40][42]. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: Data on the spot prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are presented [45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, and Singapore 380 bunker fuel swaps are provided [48]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 to 2025 are presented [57][59]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 to 2025 are provided [61][63][64]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spread: Data on the month spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2023 to 2025 are presented [68][69]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 to 2025 are presented [73][75]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 to 2025 are presented [78]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 to 2025 are presented [80]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Spot Market Internal - External Spreads: Data on the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU, and LU against the Singapore market from 2021 to 2025 are presented [83][87][90]. - Analysis of Spreads: This week, both domestic and foreign spot and futures prices generally declined. The weakness of FU led to a narrowing of its premium over the external market. For low - sulfur fuel oil, due to increased production and exports from domestic refineries and poor bunker demand, the number of domestic warehouse receipts remained high, and LU weakened compared with the previous period, resulting in a gradual decline in its premium over Singapore spot [84]. - FU and LU Position and Volume Changes: Data on the trading volumes and open interests of fuel oil main - continuous, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous, and their corresponding first - month contracts from 2020 to 2025 are presented [94][96][99]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 to 2025 are presented [105][106].

1. Market Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with some prices remaining flat and others increasing; the total inventory of the four major ports has decreased; the price of the main contract has declined, and the negative value of the positive spread monthly difference has expanded [4][12][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of August 10, there were 11 ships departing from New Zealand in August, 9 of which were bound for mainland China, and 2 were for unloading in Taiwan, China and South Korea; it is expected that about 11 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival of 1.47 million cubic meters in August [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 8, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 18,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 11,900 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 500 cubic meters); the total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1291 million cubic meters, a decrease of 74,700 cubic meters from the previous week [6][12] 3.3 Market Trends - As of August 15, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 815 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week; the negative value of the positive spread monthly difference has expanded, with the 09 - 11 monthly difference being - 11 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly difference being - 15 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly difference being - 4 yuan per cubic meter [18] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of different tree species and specifications in different regions show different trends, with some remaining flat and some increasing [22][24] - **Regional Spread**: The price differences of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions vary [25][35] - **Species and Specification Spread**: The price differences between different tree species and specifications in Shandong region are presented [42][50] 3.5 Other - As of the week of August 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2044 points, a decrease of 7 points (- 0.3%) from the previous week; its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 698 points, an increase of 2.2% from the previous week; the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous week; the US dollar index weakened again, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.182, basically the same as the previous week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased slightly by 0.4% to 1.687 [6][56][57]

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年08月17日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：基本面边际改善，但宏观存不确定性，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：77000-81000元/吨 国内现货升贴水改善 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-08 02-20 03-04 03-16 03-28 04-10 04-22 05-07 05-19 05-31 06-12 06-24 07-06 07-18 07-30 08-11 08-23 09-04 09-16 09-28 10-17 10-29 11-10 11-22 12-04 12-16 12-28 元/吨 1#电解铜升贴水 2020 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The fundamentals of copper show marginal improvement, but there is uncertainty in the macro - environment, leading to price fluctuations within the range of 77,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton. Unilateral operations should be cautious, while domestic inventory reduction is favorable for term positive spreads [6][10]. Aluminum - Shanghai Aluminum continues to oscillate within a narrow range of 20,500 - 20,700 yuan/ton. There is no need to be overly concerned about inventory accumulation before the traditional peak season. The core strategy is to wait for buying opportunities on price pull - backs, and there may be opportunities to layout for increasing volatility in the future [87]. Alumina - Although the price of alumina rose significantly due to news from Shanxi mines during the week, the actual impact is limited. The price may reach equilibrium at the 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton platform [88]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of copper in various markets has declined, with COMEX copper price volatility dropping to around 60% [16]. - Term Spreads: The term structure of Shanghai copper has strengthened, while the spot discount of LME copper has widened [19]. - Positions: Shanghai copper and LME copper positions have increased, while international copper and COMEX copper positions have decreased. CFTC non - commercial long net positions have increased [23][29]. - Spot Premiums: Domestic copper spot premiums have strengthened, and Southeast Asian copper premiums have rebounded [32]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventory has increased, but domestic social inventory has decreased [35]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has declined, weakening the logic of spot tightness [38]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Import volume has increased year - on - year, and processing fees have marginally rebounded [41]. - Recycled Copper: Import volume has significantly increased year - on - year, domestic production has slightly increased year - on - year. Ticket points are low, the refined - scrap spread has widened, and import losses have narrowed [44][49]. - Blister Copper: Import volume has increased, and processing fees are at a low level [55]. - Refined Copper: Production has increased more than expected, import volume has increased, and the profit of copper spot imports has risen [58]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises in July has weakened month - on - month [63]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and copper tube processing fees have weakened [66]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level [71]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has decreased, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has decreased [74]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. Air - conditioner production growth has rebounded, and new energy vehicle production is at a high level in the same period of history [78][81]. Aluminum & Alumina Trading End - Term Spreads: A00 spot premiums have strengthened, while alumina spot premiums have weakened. The near - month spreads of Shanghai Aluminum have remained stable [91][94]. - Positions: Shanghai Aluminum positions have decreased while trading volume has rebounded. Alumina positions and trading volume have both increased significantly [96]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai Aluminum and alumina has declined [101]. Inventory - Bauxite: Port inventory and inventory days have decreased. The inventory of alumina enterprises has increased in July. Port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory have declined, and outbound and inbound port volumes have slightly decreased [106][111][112]. - Alumina: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the accumulation rate has increased [88]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Social inventory has continued to accumulate, but the range is relatively moderate [87]. - Processed Materials: The weekly total output of aluminum plate, strip and foil has continued to decline [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly upward, reaching a high of 20,270 yuan/ton during the week. As the traditional off - season deepens, downstream die - casting enterprises are on high - temperature holidays, dragging down orders in the recycled aluminum industry. New orders are limited, and with the accumulation of social inventory, off - season pressure will gradually emerge. However, due to cost support, the short - term price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. - As of August 15, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses increased by 0.09 million tons to 11 million tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a high level. In August, the amount of waste generated at the terminal was lower than expected, and the supply of waste aluminum raw materials was limited. In the second week of August (August 4 - 10), domestic automobile sales were 378,000 units, a nearly 20% decrease from the previous week. The trade - in policy has outstanding effects, and the fourth batch of funds will be released as planned in October, which helps to stabilize consumer confidence and boost automobile consumption. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", automobile sales are expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.556 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45%, and the cumulative import was 10.122 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.88% [9][14]. - The refined - scrap price difference shows a fluctuating trend [18]. Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has a small increase, and the price difference between ADC12 and A00 has converged [26]. - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has weakened and shows certain seasonal patterns [31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has a small decline, while the monthly operating rate has increased [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in a loss - making state on average [38]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has decreased rapidly, while social inventory has been continuously accumulating. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [43][45]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, information on production and inventory is provided, including production volume and inventory distribution in different regions [48][50]. Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - In terms of terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected die - casting consumption. The production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as relevant indicators such as automobile inventory warning index and PPI of auto parts manufacturing, are presented in the report [55][56].

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年08月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：市场情绪缓和，钢价震荡运行 2、铁矿石观点：短期期价仍有宏微观支撑 3、煤焦观点：上游供给边际转松，但尚难扭转基本面整体走向 4、铁合金观点：市场交易逐步回归基本面，合金走势震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report [1] - Core view: Despite the mediocre macro - data in the off - season, the stock market remains strong, treasury bond futures continue to correct, and the curve turns steeper. The net long positions of private funds increased slightly on a weekly basis, while those of wealth management subsidiaries and foreign investors decreased significantly. Maintain the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be volatile and bearish [4] Group 2: Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Market performance: Treasury bond futures contracts declined this week, and the curve steepened significantly. The market showed a differentiated pattern with increased volatility at the long - end and continued resilience at the short - end. Policy expectations and the game of the capital market dominated market sentiment [5][7] - Short - end market: Supported by the capital market, it fluctuated within a narrow range. The 2 - year contract (TS2509) had a small decline this week. The capital market was loose, with DR001/DR007 interest rates at a low level, and the central bank continued net investment to stabilize liquidity [7] - Long - end market: Affected by policy games, the volatility increased. The yield curve showed alternating "flattening - steepening" characteristics [7] Group 3: Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - There is relevant content about liquidity monitoring and curve tracking, but no specific details are provided in the given text [9] Group 4: Seat Analysis - Daily change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 1.41%; foreign investors increased by 1.66%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.94% - Weekly change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 3.84%; foreign investors decreased by 24.11%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 27.72% [11]