商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 研 究 所 原油：逢高试空 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI12 月原油期货收跌 0.19 美元/桶，跌幅 0.31%，报 61.31 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 0.32 美元/桶，跌幅 0.49%，报 65.62 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 3.50 元/桶，跌幅 0.75%， 报 464.90 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 套利原油 | 来源地 | 套利状态(美元/ 桶) | 市场情况说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arab Extra Light | 沙特 | -6.44 (关闭) | 运费基于长期协议，交付时间 73 天， 套利关闭显示沙特轻质油不经济 | | Arab Light | 沙特 | -7.40 (关闭) | 类似 Arab Extra Light，套利空间更 差 | | Nemba | 安哥拉 | -5.06 (关闭) | 使用苏伊士型油轮，交付 61 天，西非 原油竞争力不足 | | Agbami ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade consultations will help the short - term rise of stock index futures. The main contracts of stock index futures on October 27 are expected to be strong and volatile, with specific support and resistance levels provided [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook Points - On October 27, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 opened slightly higher, then rose, met resistance, fell back, and fluctuated upward. The China - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus, which is beneficial for the short - term rise of stock index futures [2]. - It is expected that IF2512 will be strong and volatile, attacking resistance levels of 4700 and 4715 points (4715 is a strong resistance), with support levels at 4650 and 4635 points (4635 is a strong support) [2][9]. - IH2512 is expected to be strong and volatile, attacking resistance levels of 3080 and 3090 points (3090 is a strong resistance), with support levels at 3056 and 3048 points (3048 is a strong support) [2][10]. - IC2512 is expected to be strong and volatile, attacking resistance levels of 7290 and 7330 points (7330 is a strong resistance), with support levels at 7200 and 7160 points (7160 is a strong support) [3][11]. - IM2512 is expected to be strong and volatile, attacking resistance levels of 7400 and 7450 points (7450 is a strong resistance), with support levels at 7298 and 7250 points (7250 is a strong support) [3][11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - From October 25th to 26th, China and the US had in - depth consultations on economic and trade issues and reached a basic consensus. They agreed to further determine specific details and complete domestic approval procedures [4]. - The People's Bank of China carried out 900 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations on October 27. After offsetting the 700 billion yuan of due MLF, the net MLF investment this month was 200 billion yuan. The net investment of medium - term liquidity this month reached 60 billion yuan, maintaining a high level and showing a moderately loose monetary policy [5]. - From January to September 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.2% year - on - year, the highest cumulative growth rate since August last year. In September, the profit increased by 21.6% year - on - year [7]. 3.3 Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - On October 27, IF2512 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and is expected to continue to rise. The 5 - day moving average provides support [8]. - IH2512 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and the 5 - day moving average provides support. The upward space is further opened [9]. - IC2512 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and the 5 - day moving average provides support [10]. - IM2512 opened higher, was strong and volatile, and the 20 - day moving average provides support [11]. - It is expected that in October 2025, the IF main contract will have wide - range fluctuations, with support at 4426 and 4307 points and resistance at 4750 and 4850 points [11]. - The IH main contract is expected to have strong and wide - range fluctuations in October 2025, with support at 2908 and 2872 points and resistance at 3050 and 3117 points [11]. - The IC main contract is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in October 2025, with support at 6789 and 6565 points and resistance at 7550 and 7680 points [12]. - The IM main contract is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in October 2025, with support at 6976 and 6800 points and resistance at 7550 and 7660 points [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities, such as "follow oil price rebound, short PXN on rallies" for paraxylene, "long PX short PTA, unilateral trend rebound" for PTA, etc. [2] Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors like supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and macro - economic events to evaluate the price trends of each commodity. For example, for some commodities, it expects short - term rebounds due to factors like improved demand expectations or cost support, while for others, it anticipates long - term downward pressure due to high supply and weak demand [2][7][39] Summary by Commodity Paraxylene (PX) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral price short - term rebound, PXN short on rallies [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: This week, there were few changes in PX devices. Domestic device operating rate was 85.9% (+1%), and Asian overall load operating rate was 78.5% (+0.5%). Next week, some devices will restart or postpone maintenance. PX supply is slightly tight, and PTA load has increased [7] Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral trend is strong in the short - term [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: New devices have started operation, and some devices have adjusted their loads. Polyester load remains stable, downstream orders have improved, and inventory has decreased. Market demand expectations are positive [8] Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Price Trend**: Short - term rebound, positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: Oil - based plant operating rate has decreased, and import arrivals are lower than expected. Some devices are under maintenance, and coal - based device profits are negative [9] Rubber - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. China's natural rubber imports in October are expected to decrease, and tire production capacity utilization has increased [11][13] Synthetic Rubber - **Price Trend**: Central price moves up supported by macro - sentiment [2][14] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices of some products have risen. But the industry faces high supply pressure, and inventory has increased. However, due to many maintenance plans in November, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [14][17] Asphalt - **Price Trend**: Follow oil price fluctuations [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume and positions have decreased. Spot prices in some regions have increased, refinery operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory has changed little [19][32] Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Price Trend**: Mainly sideways [2][34] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have fluctuated slightly. Raw material oil prices have rebounded, but supply pressure will increase in the future [34][35] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Trend**: Weak trend [2][38] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are flat, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly form downward pressure, but there is a short - term rebound due to factors like oil price rebound and supply reduction [38][39] Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: Far - month valuation is suppressed [2][42] - **Fundamentals**: Alumina enterprises' high inventory puts pressure on caustic soda spot prices. Although there is new demand in some regions, the impact of alumina production reduction cannot be ignored, and cost has decreased [42][44] Pulp - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices are stable. Supply pressure persists, and demand is weak [49][50] Glass - **Price Trend**: Raw sheet prices are stable [2][52] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable, and downstream orders are average [53] Methanol - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][55] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased, trading volume has decreased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Port inventory has increased slightly, and the market is under supply pressure, but there is support from port logistics [56][58] Urea - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Short - term rebound is due to macro - events and increased demand from compound fertilizer factories, but long - term pressure remains due to high supply and weak demand [61][63] Soda Ash - **Price Trend**: Spot market changes little [2][65] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Device supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is average [66] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Price Trend**: Limited upward drive, focus on cost changes [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Some industrial device operating rates have increased. CP paper prices have decreased [68][72] Propylene - **Price Trend**: Short - term weak sideways due to loose supply and demand [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices have decreased slightly, and supply and demand are relatively loose [68] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: Low - level sideways [2][75] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, inventory is high, and export growth may slow down [75] Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Uptrend continues, strong in the short - term [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices in various regions have increased, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil has decreased [78] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to fuel oil, but the price increase is relatively smaller [78] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Price Trend**: Sideways consolidation [2][80] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have changed, trading volume and positions have changed. Freight rates of some routes have increased, and shipping capacity has changed [80]

Report Summary Core Views - The basic consensus reached in the high - level China - US economic and trade talks will ease market concerns, help the short - term rise of stock index futures and commodity futures, and suppress the short - term rise of treasury bond futures [2] - The central bank's continued over - quantity renewal of MLF to inject liquidity into the market will help the short - term price increase of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7] - If the EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 24 continues to decline, it will contribute to the price increase of crude oil and related commodity futures [10] - If the Q3 2025 seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value of the eurozone is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress the price increase of commodity futures (except gold and silver) and slightly help the price increase of gold and silver futures [16] - If the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI in China in October are slightly lower than the previous values, it will slightly suppress the rise of commodity futures (mainly industrial product futures) and stock index futures, but help the rise of treasury bond futures [21] - If the annual rates of the US September PCE price index and core PCE price index are slightly lower than the previous values, but the monthly rate of the PCE price index is slightly higher than the previous value, it will strengthen the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November [23] Key Events and Their Expected Impacts October 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to September and for September. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with an 20.4% year - on - year increase in August. The announcement results will affect related industrial product futures prices, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [4] - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation. With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in October is 200 billion yuan, with eight consecutive months of increased renewal [7] October 28 - The US will announce the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, with an expected value of 94.2, the same as the previous value [8] October 29 - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report. It is expected that the overnight lending rate of the Bank of Canada on October 30 will be cut by 25 basis points to 2.25% [9] - The US will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24. The previous value decreased by 961,000 barrels [10] October 30 - The Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference [11] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference [12] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference [14] - Germany will announce the initial value of Q3 2025 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0%, compared with - 0.3% in Q2 [15] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0.1%, the same as Q2; the expected seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value is 1.2%, compared with 1.5% in Q2 [16] - The eurozone will announce the economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index for October. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.7, and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 10.1 [17] - The US will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate initial value is 3%, compared with 3.8% in the previous period [19] - Germany will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected CPI annual rate initial value is 2.2%, compared with 2.4% in the previous period [20] October 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for October. The expected manufacturing PMI is 49.6, and the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 49.8 [21] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.1%, and the expected core harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.3% [22] - The US will announce the September PCE price index. The expected PCE price index annual rate is 2.7%, the expected core PCE price index annual rate is 2.9%, and the expected PCE core price index monthly rate is 0.3% [23] Other Information - As of October 24, the US government has been shut down for 24 days. A Republican congresswoman said the shutdown may last until the end of November. If it continues, the release of US economic data (especially the September PCE price index) is likely to be delayed [2] - From October 25 to 26, China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur. The two sides reached a basic consensus on resolving respective concerns [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30, with the theme of "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Change, and Reshaping" [5] - From October 30 to November 1, President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea and conduct a state visit to South Korea [3][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on October 27, 2025, including the direction of price movement and corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Strong - biased Oscillation**: Index futures, copper, aluminum, nickel, carbonated lithium, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, soybean meal, and natural rubber futures are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [2][3][4]. - **Weak - biased Oscillation**: Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures, gold, silver, zinc, tin, and palm oil futures are expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [2][3]. - **Wide - range Oscillation**: Iron ore futures are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [4]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping will attend the APEC Summit and visit South Korea; Premier Li Qiang will participate in multiple meetings and visit Singapore; Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held; the central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy; relevant government departments emphasize development in various fields such as state - owned assets management, science and technology, and foreign investment [8][9][10][11][12]. - **International News**: The US has inflation data, government shutdown issues, and trade frictions with Canada; the eurozone economic data improves; Japan focuses on dealing with high prices [15][16][17]. 3.3 Commodity Futures Information - **Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures generally closed down, but global uncertainty still supports the demand for precious metals [18]. - **Energy**: Crude oil futures prices had a slight correction, and the supply - surplus background is expected to suppress price increases [18]. - **Base Metals**: London base metals showed mixed trends. Regulatory relaxation signals may have a positive impact on the financing environment of base metals [19]. - **Exchange Rates**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar had a slight decline, and the US dollar index remained flat [19][20]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On October 24, 2025, major index futures contracts showed different trends, with short - term trends varying. In October 2025, different index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and on October 27, they are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [20][21][22][25][26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 24, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. On October 27, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [44][46][50]. - **Gold and Silver Futures**: On October 24, 2025, gold and silver futures showed a weak - biased trend. In October 2025, they are expected to have different trends, and on October 27, they are expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [50][51][57]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On October 24, 2025, base metal futures showed different trends. In October 2025, they are expected to have different trends, and on October 27, different base metal futures are expected to have different trends [61][65][73]. - **Other Futures**: On October 24, 2025, other futures such as carbonated lithium, rebar, and crude oil showed different trends. In October 2025, they are expected to have different trends, and on October 27, they are expected to have different trends [86][91][119].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 27 日 铝：重心上移 氧化铝：减量不持续 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21225 | 60 | 315 | 475 | ર્સર | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21245 | - | - | l | - | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2857 | -9 | 77 | 229 | 251 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 206562 | 39217 | 77326 | 107198 | 92322 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 302206 | 15457 | 71998 | 108012 | 21114 ...

2025 年 10 月 27 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：反弹震荡，等待中美经贸会谈指引 豆一：调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4104 +23（+0.56%） | 4098 | -12 （-0.29%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2933 +17（+0.58%） | 2949 | +9 （+0.31%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1060.5 -1.5（-0.14%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 293.9 +1.6（+0.55%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2990～3020， 较昨+20或+40； M2601+60/+70/+90/+100， | 现货基差M2601+80， 较 ...

2025 年 10 月 27 日 对二甲苯：跟随油价反弹，PXN 逢高空 PTA：多 PX 空 PTA，单边趋势反弹 MEG：需求预期好转，短期有反弹 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | hexiaoqin@gtht.com | | --- | | 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 6522 | 4518 | 4077 | 6140 | 464.9 | | | 涨跌 | 26 | 10 | -18 | -20 | 5.2 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.40% | 0.22% | -0.44% | -0.32% | 1.13% | | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | | 昨日收盘价 | -18 | -66 | -76 | -38 | -4.2 | ...

2025 年 10 月 27 日 螺纹钢：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2601 | 3,046 | -23 | -0.75 | | 期 货 | HC2601 | 3,250 | 1 | 0.03 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2601 | 1,081,693 | 2,050,545 | 81,220 | | | HC2601 | 429,946 | 1,501,496 | -182 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 杭州 | 3200 3250 | 3220 3270 | ...

2025 年 10 月 27 日 铜：宏观情绪改善，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 87,720 | 1.92% | 87660 | -0.07% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,947 | 1.20% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 301,579 | 109,298 | 583,612 | 38,667 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 25,665 | 1,628 | 319,000 | 3,718 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 35,071 | -977 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 136,350 | -575 | 7.59% | -0.28% | | | | | 昨 ...