2026 年 1 月 28 日 胶版印刷纸：逢高沽空，3-4 反套 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/26 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4475 4675 | 4475 4675 | 0 0 | | | 山东市场 | | | | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5207 | 5215 | -8 | | | | 税前毛利 | -482 | -490 | 8 | | 成本利润 ...

2026 年 01 月 28 日 短纤：短期回调，高位震荡 20260128 瓶片：短期回调，高位震荡 20260128 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | ୧୧୧୫ | 6828 | -170 | PF02-03 | -4 | 2 | -6 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6662 | 6826 | -164 | PF03-04 | -46 | -6 | -40 | | | 短纤2604 | 6708 | 6832 | -124 | PF主力基差 | -2 | -96 | 04 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 255805 | 189740 | ୧୧୦୧5 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 660 | 6.730 | -70 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 205016 | 193912 | 11104 | 短纤产销率 | ୧୫% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for live pigs is underperforming expectations, and attention should be paid to supply contradictions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year; in Sichuan, it is 12,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year; in Guangdong, it is 12,960 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year-on-year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of live pig futures contract 2603 is 11,285 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year-on-year; contract 2605 is 11,695 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; contract 2607 is 12,375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year-on-year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of contract 2603 is 69,670 lots, an increase of 16,018 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 127,642 lots, a decrease of 5,752 lots. The trading volume of contract 2605 is 33,228 lots, an increase of 2,559 lots, and the open interest is 115,715 lots, an increase of 1,816 lots. The trading volume of contract 2607 is 6,532 lots, an increase of 1,652 lots, and the open interest is 46,583 lots, an increase of 383 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contract 2603 is 1,895 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton year-on-year; the basis of contract 2605 is 1,485 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; the basis of contract 2607 is 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton year-on-year. The spread between contracts 2603 and 2605 is -410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton year-on-year; the spread between contracts 2605 and 2607 is -680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton year-on-year [1].

2026 年 1 月 28 日 碳酸锂：淡季需求回落有限，宽幅震荡 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 刘鸿儒 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 179,600 | 13,920 | 19,100 | 12,620 | 54,880 | 100,060 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 382,313 | -193,362 | -68,761 | -225,864 | -566,693 | 348,177 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 422,433 | 5,714 | ...

棉花：维持偏强震荡 20260128 2026 年 1 月 28 日 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,565 | -0.58% | 14655 | 0.62% 0.71% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,420 | -0.46% | 20565 | | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 63.78 | 1.33% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 344,386 | -300,084 | 1,117,427 | -28,316 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 7,831 | -1,999 | 11,175 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较 ...

2026 年 01 月 28 日 工业硅：上游减产，盘面底部支撑 多晶硅：关注今日会议整体情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,860 | -55 | 115 | 0 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 217,792 | -122,249 | -120,514 | -104,358 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 242,625 | -9,682 | 18,073 | 24,435 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 51,900 | 620 | 1,200 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 11,224 | -2,481 | 1,109 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 41,439 | 149 | -2 ...

2026 年 1 月 28 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，谨防地缘炒作反复 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,717.5 | -0.47% | 984 | 3,495 | -730 | 0.28 | | 0.13 | | | EC2604 | 1,193.9 | -0.11% | 25,043 | 38,647 | -3,043 | 0.65 | | 1.04 | | | EC2606 | 1,442.2 | -0.24% | 2,566 | 7,912 | 588 | 0.32 | | 0.61 | | | | 本期 | | 2026/1 ...

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，煤价企稳小幅探涨 | 9 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 28 日 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 3.5 | 0.45% | | | I2605 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to reach a new high, and silver is aiming for 100. Copper prices are likely to be strong due to the decline of the US dollar. Zinc and tin are expected to trade in a high - level range. Lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Aluminum is expected to perform strongly, with an increase in alumina maintenance. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and palladium is expected to rise slowly. The situation of nickel in Indonesia remains uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Stainless steel prices are supported by the rise of ferronickel due to concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, Comex gold 2602 rose 2.11% to 4938.40, while Shanghai gold 2602 fell 0.49% to 1083.56. For silver, Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51% to 96.215, and Shanghai silver 2602 rose 0.82% to 23370. Gold ETF holdings increased by 2 to 1079.66. Shanghai gold inventory increased by 2019 to 102009 kg, and Comex gold inventory (previous day) increased by 6979 to 36142880 troy ounces. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 11727 to 589052 kg, and Comex silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 4162840 to 422313658 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump downplayed the risk of dollar depreciation, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate broke through 1.20. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to the lowest level since May 2014. The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East, causing oil prices to rise 3% and spot gold to rise over 2%. The US government shutdown is approaching [4][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [10]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai copper's main contract closed at 102600, up 0.71%, and the night - session price dropped 1.01% to 101560. London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13024, down 1.21%. Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 406 to 144908, and London copper inventory increased by 1825 to 172350 [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating TC/RC for 2026. A Chilean copper mine was fined, and a copper - gold mine in northern Chile stopped production. Road blockades at some mines in Chile were lifted [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [13]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai zinc's main contract closed at 24950, up 0.91%. London zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3351, up 2.51%. Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 624 to 28312 tons, and London zinc inventory decreased by 775 to 110550 tons [14]. - **News**: The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East. The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in January, and there is uncertainty about future rate cuts [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai lead's main contract closed at 17000, down 0.41%. London lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2036, up 0.05%. LME lead inventory decreased by 2425 to 211175 tons [17]. - **News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai tin's main contract closed at 451160, up 6.07%, and the night - session price dropped 3.26% to 436450. London tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54865, up 0.68%. Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71 to 8553 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since 2014. The Japanese finance minister said that they will coordinate with the US to take appropriate actions on exchange - rate fluctuations if necessary [21][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24305, up 90. LME aluminum 3M closed at 3213, up 17. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 79.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The average domestic alumina price was 2649, down 4 [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: UBS said that rising metal and memory prices will erode the profits of electric vehicle enterprises. The US government shutdown is approaching [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [26]. Platinum and Palladium - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump said he is not worried about dollar depreciation. The "Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, and the path of resuming rate cuts is unclear. Trump said the US has sent a large naval fleet towards Iran. The Hungarian central bank governor said Hungary may consider increasing the proportion of gold in central bank reserves [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai nickel's main contract closed at 146110, up 730. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14540, down 105 [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses. The Chinese government has implemented export license management for some steel products. The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production target and benchmark price formula. Some mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation [33][34][36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [38].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-28 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-28 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美伊冲突或有升级，美元重挫，黄金又新高 观点分享： 美伊冲突或有升级，美元重挫，黄金又新高。昨天市场的波动基本上都被美伊冲突升级 的可能性所带动，美国在中东加强军事部署，和据相关人士爆料美国可能对伊朗动武的消息 极大的增加了市场的担忧。加之美国消费者信心指数创近年来新低、特朗普表示不担心美元 下跌、同时同时市场开始加注周三(今日晚间)公布的联储利率决议暂停降息等诸多因素的影 响，美元出现大幅下滑。受此影响，贵金属也因此保持了强势，黄金价格再创历史新高；离 岸人民币三年来也首次涨破 6.94。日元三连涨，欧元和英镑也创下三年来新高。正在股市方 面，市场表现的仍然较为强势。在美股科技公司财报公布之际，市场对盈利预期较为乐观。 标普创下历史新高；欧洲方面主要国家股市也都基本保持了上涨的趋势。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 生猪 | ★★★★ | 生猪：旺季预期落空，近端供应压力显现。近期生猪现货市场表现出两个异常 ...