商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 10 日 LLDPE：现货成交停滞，资金避险偏震荡市 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6721 | -1.34% | 366011 | 15365 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -151 | | -162 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -56 | | -52 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6570 | | 6650 | | | | 华 东 | 6700 | | 6780 | | | | 华 南 | 6750 | | 6750 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货回调，上游前期库存转移，企业报价维持，代理开单及中游销售较弱。裕龙石 ...

观点与策略 2026年02月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，价格震荡下跌 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：表需环比走弱，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：表需环比走弱，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：多头止盈，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：多头止盈，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 原木：需求预期不佳，价格下跌 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 10 日 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，价格震荡下跌 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 1.0 | 0.13% | | | I2605 | | 761.5 | 昨 ...

【基本面跟踪】 原木：需求预期不佳，价格下跌 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 10 日 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/4 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/3 | 2026/2/2 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 807.5 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 784 | 802 | 801 | 795 | -2.2% | -1.4% | | 8544 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 9069 | 6656 | 6731 | 11027 | 36.3% | -18% | | 9329 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 6990 | 8922 | 8902 | 9071 | -21.7% | -23% | | 802 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 788 | 797.5 | 802 | 796 | -1.2% | -1% | | 2382 | 盘面 | 26 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 02 月 09 日 国债期货交割梳理与 2603 合约交割分析 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 宋子钰（联系人） | 从业资格证号：F03136034 | songziyu@gtht.com | 报告导读： 回顾 2512 合约，各品种交割表现呈现显著分化。TL2512 的交割量和交割率继续处在历史高位水平， 其交割量达到历史新高，这主要得益于合约存续期间出现过的 IRR 套利机会，吸引了正套资金积极参与交 割。相比之下，TS2512 与 TF2512 合约的交割活跃度则处于历史低位，其持仓量本身为近三季最低，且 IRR 套利机会有限，导致正套博弈动力不足。值得特别注意的是 T2512 合约，尽管其持仓量创下历史同期 新高，但最终交割水平并未同比例放大，这与其参与者结构复杂、移仓换月通常较晚的特性有关。 对于即将进入交割的 2603 合约，市场格局呈现新的特点。TL2603 可能延续高交割趋势，因其持仓量 维持在历史高位，且在 1 月底的市场修复行情中再次出现了具有性价比 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - EU plans to increase free quota supply, causing EUA to plummet [1] - The signal strength is 0 (0 means short position, ±1 means bullish/bearish, ±2 means long/short) [1] - Bullish factor: Latest data shows EU natural gas inventory is only about 39 - 43%, with Germany, France, and the Netherlands having particularly low inventory, lower than last year's and long - term average [1] - Bearish factors: (1) European and American stock markets closed down collectively, spreading market pessimism; (2) EU plans to relax emission restrictions on EU ETS enterprises and consider increasing free quotas [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - Primary market: The auction price is 80.55 euros/ton (-0.31%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.45 [1] - Secondary market: The EUA futures settlement price is 78.2 euros/ton (-5.69%), and the trading volume is 71,700 lots (2.40) [1] - On February 5, 2026, the EUA auction price was 80.55 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was 84.02 euros/ton, auction volume was 2.7125 million tons, bid coverage ratio was 1.45, and auction revenue was 218.49 million euros [3] - On February 4, 2026, the EUA auction price was 80.80 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was 84.02 euros/ton, auction volume was 1.5245 million tons, bid coverage ratio was 2.03, and auction revenue was 123.18 million euros [3] - On February 5, 2026, the EUA futures settlement price was 78.20 euros/ton (-5.69%), trading volume increased by 2.40 ten - thousand lots to 7.17 ten - thousand lots, and the position remained unchanged at 35.55 ten - thousand lots [4] - On February 5, 2026, the EUA spot settlement price was 76.59 euros/ton (-5.67%), trading volume increased by 27.18% to 11,465 lots [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The copper market is characterized by cautious trading and price fluctuations, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,100, with a daily decline of 0.87%, and the night - session closing price was 101,490, with a night - session increase of 1.39%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,060, with a daily increase of 1.59% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 555,817, a decrease of 31,985 from the previous day, and the open interest was 583,895, a decrease of 16,062. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 25,610, a decrease of 4,624, and the open interest was 325,000, an increase of 298 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 160,172, a decrease of 507, and the LME Copper inventory was 183,275, an increase of 2,700. The LME Copper cancellation warrant ratio was 10.53%, a decrease of 0.52% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper basis was -70.95, an increase of 6.63 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 88,100, a decrease of 1,000. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 40, an increase of 110 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The State Council executive meeting proposed to make good use of funds such as central budget - internal investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new policy - based financial instruments. The US - Iran nuclear talks reached a consensus on "maintaining dialogue" [1] - **Industry News**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association plans to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in the Horne smelter and will reduce investment in the Canadian copper refinery in the medium term. Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 was 169,500 tons, a 14% decrease from the same period in 2024. Capstone Copper will resume full production at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile [1][3]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 09 日 铝：关注节后去库 氧化铝：震荡收敛 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23315 | -70 | -1245 | 745 | 2270 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 23585 | ー | ー | l | ー | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3110 | 84 | -26 | 161 | 305 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 383322 | -90349 | -884795 | -235303 | 250592 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 199482 | -7888 | -85417 | -897 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to oscillate and rebound, while silver is likely to decline from its high level. Copper trading remains cautious with prices oscillating. Zinc will trade in a range, and lead shows weak supply - demand with oscillating prices. Tin will consolidate, and aluminum investors should focus on post - holiday inventory reduction. Alumina will see oscillating convergence, and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum. Platinum will recover during oscillations, and palladium will rebound following the precious metals sector. Nickel is affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, and the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesia. Stainless steel will have frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with the cost support center moving up [2]. 3. Summary by Metals Gold and Silver - **Price Movements**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 1,090.12 with a - 1.41% daily decline and 1114.50 in the night session with a 2.82% increase. Gold T + D closed at 1,091.49 with a - 1.30% daily decline and 1111.00 in the night session with a 2.97% increase. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18799 with a - 6.19% daily decline and 19840.00 in the night session with a 3.51% increase. Silver T + D closed at 18197 with a - 7.16% daily decline and 18848 with a 3.97% increase [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's central bank's gold reserves increased for the fifteenth consecutive month, with a 40,000 - ounce increase in January. The US hopes for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine before June [4][6]. Copper - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,100 with a - 0.87% daily decline and 101490 in the night session with a 1.39% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,060 with a 1.59% increase [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The State Council executive meeting plans to make better use of funds. The US and Iran reached a consensus on "maintaining dialogue" in nuclear negotiations. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association considers including "copper concentrate" in national reserves. Glencore Canada suspended major investments in a smelter, and Anglo American's Q4 2025 copper production decreased by 14% year - on - year. Capstone Copper will resume full production at a mine [7][9]. Zinc - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24450 with a 0.23% increase, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3383 with a 2.56% increase [10]. - **News**: China's central bank's gold reserves increased for the fifteenth consecutive month, and the US hopes for a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement before June [11]. Lead - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16510 with a - 0.27% decline, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1965.5 with a 0.59% increase [14]. - **News**: The State Council executive meeting plans to make better use of funds, and the US and Iran reached a consensus on "maintaining dialogue" in nuclear negotiations [15]. Tin - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 357,000 with a - 0.94% decline and 366,450 in the night session with a 1.69% increase. The LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 47,155 with a 0.35% increase [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Zelensky said the US hopes to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict before summer. Trump plans to negotiate with Iran again, and he expects the Dow Jones to reach 100,000 by the end of his term [18][20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23315 with a - 70 decline, and the LME aluminum 3M closed at 3110 with an 84 increase. The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2824 with a 34 increase, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21950 with a 35 increase [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US and India reached a temporary trade framework, and Trump nominated a new Fed chair [26]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Movements**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 506.00 with a - 6.35% decline, and palladium futures 2606 closed at 410.50 with a - 7.27% decline [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A US aircraft carrier entered a position for a potential strike on Iran. The semiconductor industry is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026. Japan held a parliamentary election, and Iran's foreign minister set red lines in negotiations [29][30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 131,840 with a - 2,590 decline, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,670 with a - 140 decline [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, adjusted nickel ore benchmark prices, and planned to cut nickel ore production targets. Some Indonesian mines faced potential fines for illegal land use, and a ship carrying nickel ore sank [30][31][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Stockpiling is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Apparent demand is weakening month - on - month, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels [2][17]. - Thermal coal: Coal prices will remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][21]. - Logs: Port arrivals are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [2][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-1.04%); the position decreased by 10,368 hands. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores declined [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3; some real - estate companies no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,077 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.65%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,251 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.43%) [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of February 5th, rebar production decreased by 8.15 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.05 tons; total inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased. In late January 2026, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, etc. [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 was 5634 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton; the closing price of silicomanganese 2603 was 5816 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The two - department will increase the proportion of coal - fired power generation units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity prices; steel mills' ferrosilicon procurement prices and quantities changed; electricity prices in some regions changed; UMK's March manganese ore quotation increased [13][14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1138.5 yuan/ton, down 33.5 yuan/ton (-2.9%); the closing price of J2605 was 1698.5 yuan/ton, down 39.5 yuan/ton (-2.3%) [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 6th, the CCI metallurgical coal index remained unchanged; the coking coal online auction had a 2% failure rate, and the demand was weakening [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Thermal Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 was 567 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 695 yuan/ton [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 6th, the port market continued to rise steadily; the Indonesian government's coal production plan was uncertain; the Indonesian coal association worried that production cuts would lead to mine closures [22]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 784, down 2.2%; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 788, down 1.2%. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, and a few increased slightly [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3; some real - estate companies no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [26].

2026年02月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，月差偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260209 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡承压 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口窗口缩窄，节前偏震荡市 | 8 | | PP：估值修复有限，出口周签单下滑 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本抬升，估值低位 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260209 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：高位震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 20 | | 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 | 20 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：窄幅调整，短期弱势暂缓 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续下探 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：短期震荡市2026 ...