期货研究 烧碱：旺季合约偏多对待 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2474 820 2563 89 2025 年 8 月 7 日 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【现货消息】 山东地区主要氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱自 8 月 7 日起价格下调 10 元/吨，执行出厂 750 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 宏观端，近期反内卷情绪有所走弱。烧碱在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，驱动不足，目前 反内卷政策也未涉及烧碱行业。当前烧碱由于处于需求淡季，涨价动力不足，但又受液氯偏弱影响，成本支 撑强。此外，需要关注 08 合约仓单对市场的冲击，低价仓单回流现货市场，容易加剧市场负反馈，因此烧 碱短期承压。但长期看，烧碱旺季需求仍有期待，尤其 8 月中旬大厂检修叠加下游旺季补库，容易导致现货 驱动向上。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下： ...

【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,700 465,083 | 250 305,387 | -585 -140,078 | 655 -151,660 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 208,736 | 56,958 | -33,941 | -175,971 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,345 | 1,015 | -3,360 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 420,201 | -12,929 | -145,042 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 138,396 | 10,809 | -26,094 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -90 | -130 | 180 | -90 | | | | 工业硅：买近月抛连一跨期成本（元/吨） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price [2][4] - Zinc: The price is expected to oscillate upwards [2][7] - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [2][10] - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation [2][13] - Alumina: Short - term oscillation [2][13] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][13] - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and the nickel price fluctuates in a narrow range [2][16] - Stainless steel: The current supply - demand situation drags down the price, while the raw material cost limits the downside space [2][17] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 78,280 yuan, down 0.38%; the LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 9,674 US dollars, up 0.41%. The trading volume of the SHFE copper main contract was 56,389 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots; the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,883 lots, a decrease of 5,870 lots. The SHFE copper inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons; the LME copper inventory was 156,125 tons, an increase of 2,275 tons [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and exclude Treasury Secretary Bessent from being the Fed chairman. The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness, and the price index is high. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1st. Chile's Codelco suspended the operation of the El Teniente copper mine [4][6] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [6] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan, unchanged; the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was at 2,750 US dollars, down 0.15%. The trading volume of the SHFE zinc main contract was 89,569 lots, an increase of 4,120 lots; the LME zinc trading volume was 7,339 lots, a decrease of 826 lots. The SHFE zinc inventory was 14,375 tons, a decrease of 432 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons [7] - **News**: The US - Japan trade agreement has continued differences, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis [8] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [8] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,855 yuan, up 0.48%; the LME lead 3M electronic disk was at 1,975.5 US dollars, up 0.61%. The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract was 48,645 lots, an increase of 8,512 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 6,919 lots, a decrease of 97 lots. The SHFE lead inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons [10] - **News**: Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and exclude Treasury Secretary Bessent from being the Fed chairman. The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness, and the price index is high [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [11] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,650 yuan, up 90 yuan; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,622 US dollars, up 57 US dollars. The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,241 yuan, up 14 yuan. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,075 yuan, up 70 yuan. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 54.70 million tons, unchanged [13] - **Comprehensive News**: Before the 39% tariff took effect, the Swiss leader's visit to the US was fruitless. Trump ordered an additional 25% tariff on India [15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0 [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,070 yuan, up 160 yuan; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,935 yuan, down 25 yuan. The trading volume of the SHFE nickel main contract was 87,840 lots, an increase of 3,022 lots; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 82,019 lots, an increase of 2,193 lots [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended production of all EF production lines [17][18][19] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [21]

郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 集运指数（欧线）：基本面延续弱势，10 空单持 有，逢高酌情加空 2025 年 8 月 7 日 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2508 | 2,071.3 | -1.18% | 418 | 3,700 | -246 | 0.11 | 0.18 | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,420.1 | 0.64% | 48,555 | 54,361 | 2,253 | 0.89 | 0.59 | | | EC2512 | 1,751.4 | 4.12% | 10,672 | 9,581 | 1,373 | 1.11 | 0.34 | | | | 本期 | | 2025/8/4 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: Zinc, lead, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal are expected to oscillate upwards; industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester chip have potential for positive movement; palm oil is recommended for long - position building at low levels [2][9][12][37][50] - **Negative Trends**: Para - xylene, LLDPE, LPG, propylene are trending weakly; the container shipping index (European line) has a weak fundamental outlook [2][5] - **Oscillating Trends**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, iron ore, log, synthetic rubber, asphalt, methanol, urea, etc. are in an oscillating phase [2][6][15][17] - **Other Situations**: PTA has a rebound in monthly spread; MEG rebounds due to the recovery of coal prices; caustic soda's peak - season contracts are treated with a long - position bias [2] 2. Core Views - The market trends of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. For example, the tariffs imposed by Trump on copper products and other commodities have an impact on the copper market; the changes in Chile's lithium carbonate exports affect the lithium carbonate market [6][25] - Different commodities have different trading strategies based on their trends. For instance, for PX, a reverse spread for contracts 9 - 1 is recommended to be held; for PTA, a positive spread for contracts at low levels is advised; for MEG, a long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is proposed [54][55] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price, but Trump's tariff policy on copper products and the suspension of a Chilean copper mine's operation affect the market. The trend intensity is neutral [6][8] - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate upwards. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and there are news about US - Japan trade agreements [9][10] - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price, and macro - economic news about the US affects the market. The trend intensity is neutral [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation. Alumina is in short - term oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all neutral [15][16] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation due to intensified long - short competition. Stainless steel's supply - demand situation drags down the price, but raw material costs limit the downside. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are neutral [17][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Chile's exports have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses. The trend intensity is neutral [23][26] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - xylene**: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - **PTA**: The processing fee is at a low level, the load drops unexpectedly, and the monthly spread rebounds. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - **MEG**: The rebound is driven by the recovery of coal prices. A long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is recommended. The trend intensity is 0 [2][49] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in short - term oscillation. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has changed, and the market is affected by factors such as speculation funds and policies [56][57] - **Asphalt**: It is in consolidation after a decline [2][60] Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The fundamental situation remains weak. Hold short positions in contract 10 and add short positions at high levels if appropriate [5] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Polyester Chip**: The downside space is limited, and they are in short - term oscillation. A long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]

2025年08月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需现实拖累，原料成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：智利出口回升，关注矿证续期情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,070 | 160 | -650 | -2,300 | 530 | -3,560 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,935 | -25 | 15 | 35 | 295 | 200 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 87,840 | 3,022 | -65, ...

2025年08月07日 | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 5 | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭：偏强震荡 | 7 | 焦煤：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | | | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 铁矿石：震荡反复 2 螺纹钢：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 3 热轧卷板：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 3 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 7 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 794. 5 | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -4. 0 | -0. 50% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(于) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 358. 293 | -26. 208 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: With repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to go long at low levels [2][4] - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal will adjust and fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: One - way auctions have started, and the market will fluctuate [2][10] - Corn: It will run weakly [2][13] - Sugar: It will trade in a narrow range [2][16] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][21] - Eggs: Market sentiment has been realized [2][27] - Live pigs: Near - term spot pressure persists [2][29] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2][35] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.04%, and night - session closing price was 9,006 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.40%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,406 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.74%, and night - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.19% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% [5][7] - **Trend intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and night - session closing price was 4124 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3026 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%, and night - session closing price was 3013 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46% [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On August 6, CBOT soybeans closed lower, following the decline in the soybean meal market. The US soybean growing area has good weather conditions. The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. On August 8, 10:30, CNGC plans to auction 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans [10][12] - **Trend intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamental data**: Important spot prices such as Jinzhou's closing price decreased by 10 yuan/ton. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,259 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 2,267 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.35% [13] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn port prices decreased, and prices in other regions also showed certain changes [14] - **Trend intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 16.04 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05. The mainstream spot price was 5970 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 [16] - **Macro and industry news**: Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - term average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16] - **Trend intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,850 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 13830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14% [21] - **Macro and industry news**: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the cotton yarn market is stable. ICE cotton futures first rose and then fell [22] - **Trend intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: Egg 2509's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kg with an increase of 0.99%. Egg 2601's closing price was 3,624 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 0.11% [27] - **Trend intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [27] Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: Henan's spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton with a decline of 100. The closing price of live pig 2509 was 13,810 yuan/ton with a decline of 75 [31] - **Trend intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [32] - **Market logic**: The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the price increase was less than expected. The market pressure is large, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton with no change. PK510's closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22% [35] - **Spot market focus**: New peanuts in some areas are about to be listed, and the price of old peanuts is stable [36] - **Trend intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37]

2025 年 8 月 7 日 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI9 原油期货收跌 0.81 美元/桶，跌幅 1.24%，报 64.35 美元/桶；布伦特 10 月原油期货收跌 0.75 美元/桶，跌幅 1.11%，报 66.89 美元/桶；SC2509 原油期货收跌 6.20 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 498.00 元/桶。 4. 白宫官员：对俄罗斯的二级制裁预计将于周五实施。 7. 美国至 8 月 1 日当周 EIA 俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 45.3 万桶，前值 69 万桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油：多单加空远月保护，关注美对俄能源制 （以上资讯来源于金十数据） 【趋势强度】 原油趋势强度：0 裁 商 品 研 究 1. 美国总统特朗普：汽油价格将低于每加仑 2 美元。与泽连斯基和普京举行峰会的可能性较大， 目前尚未确定具体地点。 2. 白宫：俄罗斯曾表示希望与特朗普会面；特朗普愿意与普京和泽连斯基会面。 3. 阿联酋国家石油公司（ADNOC）将 9 月份穆尔班原油官方售价定为每桶 7 ...

2025 年 08 月 07 日 对二甲苯：供需压力增加，趋势偏弱 PTA：加工费低位，负荷计划外下降，月差反弹 MEG：煤炭价格回暖带动反弹，多 MEG 空 PTA/PX 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6794 | 4724 | 4414 | 6414 | 505.9 | | 涨跌 | 6734 | 42 | 15 | 32 | -2.9 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.89% | 0.90% | 0.34% | 0.50% | -0.57% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF9-1 | SC9-10 | | 昨日收盘价 | 50 | -30 | -21 | -74 | 4.9 | | 前日收盘价 | 28 | -40 | -27 | -74 | 5.2 | | 涨跌 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 0 | -0.3 | | 现货 ...