Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of olefins - polyolefins is polarized, with tight supply of propylene and stable supply of polyolefins. Market performance varies due to different demand situations [2] - The price of pure benzene is weakly operating, but there may be improvements in the third - quarter supply - demand situation. The price of styrene has certain support [3] - In the polyester industry, PX and PTA prices are related, and the demand for polyester products shows a positive trend, but there are also issues such as high inventory [5] - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, while the urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - The PVC market is under supply pressure and may decline, and the caustic soda market will likely fluctuate widely [7] - The soda ash market may be short - sold at high prices, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate widely [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand. Polyolefin futures are in a low - level range, with stable supply but slow demand growth [2] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene fluctuates above 6000 yuan/ton, with increasing supply and demand, and a weak price due to factors such as poor downstream profitability. The price of styrene has certain support due to device maintenance [3] Polyester - PX price rebounds, PTA follows up slightly, and the demand for polyester products is improving, but there are issues such as high inventory. Ethylene glycol has a strong basis, and short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, with port inventory accumulation and expected demand improvement. The urea market is expected to remain weak due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC has supply pressure and may decline due to new device production. Caustic soda has a differentiated performance in different regions and is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply is slightly reduced, and the market may be short - sold at high prices. Glass production capacity is increasing slightly, and the price may fluctuate widely [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, implying a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with the previously recommended combination strategy of shorting crude oil and holding out - of - the - money call options to be continued [2] - The FU2601 contract of fuel oil shows a sideways consolidation pattern, and the decline in warehouse receipts provides some support for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil [3] - The asphalt price has a clear support below, and the long positions laid out at the beginning of the week are advised to be held [4] - The international LPG market remains strong, and the domestic market is mainly in a sideways movement due to the support from import costs and the suppression of high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell, with the SC10 contract up 0.58%. The market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the pressure will be concentrated from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. The bearish trend continues, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The FU2601 contract is in a sideways consolidation range of 2780 - 2795 yuan/ton. The LU2511 contract rose to 3400 yuan/ton and then pulled back. The continuous decline in warehouse receipts provides support for both [3] Asphalt - The asphalt price followed the crude oil to rise slightly at the end of the session. The shipment volume slowed down in the first week of September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The overall inventory level is flat compared to the previous period, and long positions are advised to be held [4] LPG - The international LPG market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by import costs, but the high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market limit the upward momentum, and it mainly moves sideways [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of offset printing paper (double - offset paper) is generally weak, with an overall oversupply in recent years, and the pressure of supply surplus will continue to be released [2]. - The short - term trend of double - offset paper futures may be volatile, and there is still a downward risk in price in the long term due to continued capacity expansion [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance on the Listing Day - On September 10th, the listing benchmark price of double - offset paper futures contracts on the Shanghai Exchange was 4,218 yuan/ton, covering contracts OP2601 - OP2608. At the close, the positions and trading volume of the double - offset paper index were 2,945 lots and 21,850 lots respectively, with the position of the main 2601 contract at 2,610 lots, showing average performance [2]. Supply - side Situation - The supply of double - offset paper is in an oversupply state, with continuous capacity expansion in cultural paper and potential peak capacity expansion in the future. There are no new short - term shutdown and maintenance plans, and some previously shut - down production lines in Shandong are planned to resume production [2]. - The cost range of double - offset paper for paper mills is between 4,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton, and the lowest market factory delivery price is 4,200 - 4,300 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - side Situation - The peak demand season for double - offset paper is from October to December in the second half of the year, with no significant support from social orders and expected overall stability. The spring semester publishing tender may be postponed to after the National Day [3]. - Considering seasonality, the price in January may have a premium compared to the current spot price, but the situation is still not optimistic due to supply - side pressure [3]. Price Trend Forecast - In the short term, the double - offset paper futures may show a volatile trend. In the medium term, attention should be paid to peak - season demand and new capacity expansion. In the long term, prices may decline due to continued capacity expansion [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price compared to the previous Friday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From September 1st to September 5th, 2025, among commodities, polysilicon had the highest weekly increase of 14.49%, followed by silver (4.54%), gold (3.88%), etc. Aluminum decreased by 0.22%, crude oil by 0.66%, and PTA by 2.34% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (including CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500) generally declined, while overseas stock markets such as the Hang Seng Index, NASDAQ Index, and Nikkei 225 rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.36% and the NASDAQ Index by 1.14% [2]. - **Bonds**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds decreased, with the 2 - year yield down 2.01bp, the 5 - year down 5.5bp, and the 10 - year down 5.2bp [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.28%, the US dollar intermediate price by 0.05%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.11% [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views - **Macro - financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 6 were neutral. Bullish factors included the continuation of domestic anti - involution policies, the increase in the number of ETF shares tracking the CSI 1000, etc. Bearish factors included the contraction of A - share trading volume and potential regulatory actions [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors were the loose domestic monetary environment and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Bearish factors were the high risk appetite and the expectation of domestic incremental policies [4]. - **Energy Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included poor non - farm data and the lower - than - expected OPEC+ production increase. Bearish factors were the planned OPEC+ production increase and concerns about demand recession [5]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors were strong export demand and potential zero - tariff treatment for the US. Bearish factors were the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and domestic inventory accumulation [5]. - **Non - ferrous Sector** - **Aluminum**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors were the Fed rate - cut expectation, supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, and the improvement in downstream开工率. Bearish factors were the continuous inventory accumulation and the increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity [6]. - **Chemical Sector** - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors were the improvement in the spot market atmosphere and the expected seasonal improvement in the Q4 real - estate market. Bearish factors were the stable supply and the high premium of the 01 contract [6]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 6 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 1 was neutral. Bullish factors were the strong expectation of a 50BP Fed rate cut in September and the increase in global fiscal concerns. Bearish factors were the short - term profit - taking pressure and the risk of the Fed rate cut not meeting expectations [7]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors were the decrease in coking coal inventory and the improvement in coking enterprise production profits. Bearish factors were the high - level Mongolian coal imports and the weak demand in infrastructure and real estate [7].

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Report Summary Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★, with a certain bullish trend and some operability [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Report's Core Views - The steel market is in short - term oscillation, with the upper rebound height limited and the lower supported by cost. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by factors such as iron - water production recovery and policy expectations, with large price volatility. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets need to observe the continuity of "anti - involution" policies [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's demand has fluctuated and recovered, the production has declined, and the inventory accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The hot - rolled coil's demand and production have both increased, and the inventory accumulation rhythm has also slowed down. The market is under potential negative - feedback pressure, with weak domestic demand and high exports. The short - term trend is oscillation [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment has significantly declined, the domestic arrival volume has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has stabilized and rebounded. The terminal demand is still weak, but there is a strong expectation of iron - water production recovery this week, and there is also a demand for pre - holiday inventory replenishment. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The first round of coking price cuts has been fully implemented. The overall inventory has increased, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations and market sentiment, with large volatility [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated strongly during the day. Affected by the parade, the production of coking coal mines has significantly decreased, but the impact time is short. The overall carbon element supply is still abundant, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations and market sentiment [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The demand for iron - water production is expected to recover. The weekly production has continued to increase, and the inventory has not increased. The long - term manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [7] Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The demand for iron - water production is expected to recover. The supply has continued to increase significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic petroleum asphalt futures options will be listed on September 10, with the first - day listing of option contracts corresponding to BU2512 and BU2601 [1]. - It is expected that both supply and demand of asphalt will increase. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth but with a lower growth rate compared to Q3. The destocking amplitude in Q4 will increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. The average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is estimated to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $63 per barrel. The subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. Different option strategies are proposed for the short - and long - term [4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Contract Design Rules - Contract subject: Petroleum asphalt futures contract (10 tons) - Contract types: Call options and put options - Trading unit: 1 lot of petroleum asphalt futures contract - Quotation unit: Yuan (Renminbi)/ton - Minimum price change: 0.5 yuan/ton - Daily price limit: The same as that of the underlying futures contract - Contract months: The nearest two consecutive - month contracts, and subsequent months will be listed on the second trading day after the open interest of the underlying futures contract reaches a certain value after settlement, with the specific value to be announced by the exchange - Trading hours: 9:00 - 11:30 am, 13:30 - 15:00 pm and other times specified by the exchange - Last trading day: The fifth - last trading day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract, which can be adjusted by the exchange according to national legal holidays - Expiration date: The same as the last trading day - Exercise price: It covers the price range corresponding to 1.5 times the daily price limit of the settlement price of the underlying futures contract on the previous trading day. When the exercise price ≤ 2000 yuan/ton, the exercise price interval is 20 yuan/ton; when 2000 yuan/ton < exercise price ≤ 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 50 yuan/ton; when the exercise price > 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 100 yuan/ton - Exercise method: American style. The buyer can submit an exercise application during the trading hours of any trading day before the expiration date, and can submit an exercise or waiver application before 15:30 on the expiration date - Trading codes: Call options: BU - contract month - C - exercise price; Put options: BU - contract month - P - exercise price - Listing exchange: Shanghai Futures Exchange [3] 3.2 Asphalt Market Outlook 3.2.1 Demand - Taking the "Golden September" as a boundary, the cumulative shipments of 54 asphalt sample refineries in August increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the 7% growth bottleneck in June - July. The shipment rhythm in the first week of September slowed down compared to August, but considering the peak road construction season lasting until the mid - late fourth quarter, the impact of the slowdown is expected to be short - term. The demand for road construction is most prosperous from September to October, and the demand in the north will gradually decline in November while the south still has support. Special bonds are expected to have an incremental increase from September to October 2025, and their boost to asphalt demand is expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.2.2 Supply - In terms of refinery supply, the significant increase in asphalt cracking spread means that the profit of refining asphalt by independent refineries with crude oil quotas has recovered, and the production profit of asphalt is better than that of other oil products. The supply of asphalt by independent refineries with quotas has increased significantly year - on - year. For example, the average monthly output of Jingbo Hainan's asphalt has been around 200,000 tons since 2025, a significant increase compared to the level of 8,000 tons in most months in 2024. As of the end of July this year, the cumulative import of diluted asphalt decreased by 45% year - on - year. Independent refineries without crude oil quotas face the problems of high discounts on diluted asphalt and low tax deductions, resulting in serious losses in processing diluted asphalt, and their supply has been suppressed. In terms of major refineries, Sinopec's asphalt supply has been declining year - on - year due to the shift towards deep - processing, and the decline rate has been increasing month by month, offsetting the incremental supply of PetroChina and CNOOC to some extent. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth, but the growth rate will be lower than that in Q3. The low base in Q3 2024 contributed to the high year - on - year growth rate of supply in 2025. The supply in Q3 2025 is expected to increase by 26% year - on - year (+1.6 million tons), but the monthly output of asphalt in Q4 2024 increased, and there is still a certain constraint on the increase rate considering profit and historical supply levels [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The estimated result of the supply - demand balance sheet shows that the destocking amplitude of refineries in Q4 2025 will be lower than that in 2024. Within the year, the destocking amplitude of the asphalt industry chain in Q4 is the strongest, with a significant increase compared to Q3. October and November are the periods with the fastest destocking speed within the year. It is expected to continue destocking in December, but the destocking amplitude will decrease significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. Considering that the inventory of the asphalt industry chain has been at a relatively low level this year, the inventory level at the end of the year is expected to decline year - on - year [10]. 3.3 Option Strategies - Taking the options corresponding to the BU2512 contract as the strategy target, combined with the fundamental forecasts of crude oil and asphalt, the subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. In the short - to - medium term, there are still seasonal supporting factors for the asphalt fundamentals. After the decline of crude oil stabilizes, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be sold according to the volatility. If the futures price weakens again, a spread strategy can be adopted, that is, buying deep out - of - the - money put options for protection. In the long - term, different from the end - of - year tail - up market in 2024 caused by the unexpected destocking during the traditional off - season under the deep production cuts by refineries, the support provided by the fundamentals at the end of this year may be weaker than that in 2024 due to the year - on - year increase in refinery supply. Therefore, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be bought after the high - level decline of crude oil and the weakening of the seasonal support of asphalt fundamentals. For spot enterprises, this can control the depreciation risk caused by price drops while still retaining the opportunity to benefit from the phased upward market [10].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The crude oil market's bearish trend continues, and the strategy of combining crude oil shorts with out - of - the - money call options can be maintained [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed meeting, but volatility increases after consecutive rises [3]. - The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a probability of moving higher [4]. - The market conditions of various industries are complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity, and corresponding investment strategies are recommended [2 - 48]. Summary by Category Metals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell. Even in an optimistic scenario, the market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the bearish trend persists. The strategy of combining shorts with out - of - the money call options can be continued [2]. - **Precious Metals**: U.S. non - farm employment data was revised down, and the Middle East geopolitical situation is tense. Precious metals may be strong before the Fed meeting, with increased volatility [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The market is waiting for U.S. inflation indicators. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a chance of moving up [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Downstream开工率 increased seasonally, and it is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply is in surplus. The price is expected to find support around 2,830 yuan [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may narrow further [7]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals show increased supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy on the profit margin of the futures market remains, and the domestic market may lead the overseas market down [8]. - **Lead**: The production of recycled lead decreased significantly, and the supply pressure eased, but the terminal consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices declined. The market is cautious about domestic tin consumption. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 line [10]. Energy - related - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The decrease in warehouse receipts provides some support for the prices of LU and FU, and the futures prices rose slightly at night [20]. - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume slowed down in early September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The price is pressured by oil prices in the short term but has support at the bottom [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is stable due to strong procurement demand. The domestic market has a strong bottom support, but the futures market's upside is limited [22]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price was slightly adjusted down. The market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the weakening sentiment, the price decreased slightly. In September, supply is expected to increase and demand to decrease. It is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **PX & PTA**: They opened low and then oscillated upwards. PX has limited production growth space, and PTA's price is driven by raw materials. The demand is improving [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillated at a low level at night. The supply and demand are mixed [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin**: Short - fiber's supply and demand are stable, and it can be considered for long - position allocation. Bottle - grade resin has a long - term over - capacity problem [31]. Building Materials - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: Night - trading steel prices declined. Supply and demand are weak, and the market may oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is stable, and the demand may recover. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices weakened during the day. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand may recover. The prices are affected by policy expectations and have high volatility [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The prices oscillated during the day. The demand for iron - making may recover, and the supply of silicon - based alloys is increasing. Attention should be paid to the continuity of relevant policies [17][18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean good - quality rate decreased slightly. The global demand for soybean oil may drive up soybean crushing. The domestic supply may have a gap in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: U.S. soybean oil prices fell. Domestic soybean oil supply exceeds demand, and palm oil import losses are narrowing. They can be considered for low - price buying in the long term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed - related products is uncertain, and the prices may rise [37]. - **Corn**: The futures price continued to fall at night. The new - season corn price has certain expectations, but the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic new - cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: U.S. sugar prices oscillated. Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic sugar market is in good condition. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price dropped significantly. The supply is expected to be stable, and the futures price may continue to decline [44]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. The supply is low, and the demand is not in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price declined. The port inventory is relatively high, and the supply is loose. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. Livestock and Poultry - **Pigs**: The spot and futures prices of pigs declined. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price rebounded due to the departure of short - selling funds. The spot price is rising seasonally. The far - month contracts can be considered for long - position layout [41]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market was weak, and the futures prices fell. The market style may continue to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yield curve may become steeper [48]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price is expected to decline further, and the 10 - contract may fall below the low of the first half of the year. The far - month contracts are relatively strong but may also be under pressure [19].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月10日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价冲高回落，布伦特11合约涨0.44%。昨日以色列袭击卡塔尔以对哈马斯高级将领进行 打击，但最终因未造成石油供应犹动油价回吐涨幅。展望后市，即便考虑OPEC+的增产止步于10月 且减产补偿计划完全兑现的乐观情景，市场供需盈余仍将边际放大,且压力集中在四季度至明年一 季度体现,上周美国API原油及成品油库存均上涨。原油市场空头趋势尚未结束,欧美制裁等地缘风 险溢价愈发受限，仍以逢高做空思路为主，此前推荐的原油空头与虚值看涨期权相结合的策略可继 续持有。 【责金属】 隔夜美国劳工部公布的初步基准修订显示截至3月份的12个月里美国非农就业人数减少91.1万人, 数据下调对货币政策影响不大但体现就业早已开始走弱。以色列空袭卡塔尔首都，目标直指啥马斯 高级领导人，中东地缘局势依然紧张。美联储会议前贯金属或维持偏强运行,不过连续上涨后波动 加剧。今晚关注美国PPI数据。 (铜) 隔夜内外铜价震荡，前期非农就业被大幅下修，市场等待美国通胀指标以判断降息幅度与节奏。印 足Grasberg铜矿出现矿料涌出事故，但不会 ...

| 《八》 国控期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年09月09日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 下半年以来全球石油累库1.2%,在夏季炼厂开工高峰以成品油的累库2.9%为主,原油库存微增0.1%基本持平。 展望后市,即便考虑OPEC+的增产止步于10月且减产补偿计划完全兑现的乐观情景,市场供需盈余仍将边际放 大,且压力集中在四季度至明年一季度体现。原油市场空头趋势尚未结束,欧美制裁俄油或引发的地缘风险溢 价愈发受限，仍以逢高做空思路为主,此前推荐的原油空头与虚值看涨期权相结合的策略可继续持有 ...