今日盘面大幅回落。螺纹表需环比回暖，产量小幅回升，库存低位小幅下降。热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 "反内卷"有所降温，由于近一段时间涨幅 较大，相关工业品全线大幅回落，短期相对承压，波动明显加剧，关注商品市场整体风向变化。 【铁矿】 铁矿 今日盘面走弱。 供应端，本期铁矿全球发运环比增加，强于去年同期水平，其中澳洲发运大幅反弹，巴西和非主流发运有 所回落。国内到港量本期继续回落，短期仍然受到前期海外发运季节性下滑的影响。需求端，终端需求淡季弱稳，钢厂盈利情 况较好，现阶段主动减产动力不足，上周铁水产量高位基本持稳。反内卷带来的乐观情绪有所降温，盘面波动开始加剧。铁矿 受反内卷直接影响较小，目前基本面变化不大，预计走势震荡为主。 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ...

市场延续上涨趋势，主要宽基指数全部收涨，周内科创 50（4.6%）、创业板指（2.9%）、中证 500（3.2%）、中证 1000（2.36%）上涨较多，上证 50、沪深 300 涨幅在 1%左右。 股市连续第 5 周上涨，上证综指站上 3600 点后震荡加剧， 持续消化止盈压力，中美经贸谈判进展、美联储议息会议是 短期关注焦点。美日、美欧经贸谈判落地，结果相对好于预 期，市场对中美谈判持乐观态度。市场预计美联储继续维持 利率不变，但态度会相对偏鸽。国内方面，持续的反内卷引 导，带动相关行业股价、大宗商品价格剧烈反弹，但上涨速 度偏快，短期有一定调整的可能。整体来看市场继续保持乐 观，持续上涨的行情吸引资金不断入场，指数整体走势偏强， 日内振幅也在合理范围之内，多头持仓感受较好。中美经贸 谈判和议息会议结果会对市场产生扰动，反内卷的具体效果 还有待观察。拉长时间来看，当前宽基指数估值依然较低， 经济刺激政策也逐渐发挥效果，美联储降息逐渐临近，RMB 汇率保持强势，内外部环境继续改善，继续保持谨慎乐观的 观点。 ⚫ 期权市场 从期权市场来看，由于市场连续上涨，金融期权隐波 （IV）继续上升，目前金融期权 IV ...

| Million | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月28日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属偏弱震荡。关税方面,上周美国相继与多个国家达成贸易协议,其中最关键的日本和欧盟税率均 为15%,另外要求加大对美投资。特朗普称将对大部分国家征收15%至50%的简单关税,美商务部长称8月1日 关税上调最后期限不再延长。中美即将迎来新一轮谈判,超预期对抗概率较低。地缘方面,上周泰国和柬埔 寨边境争议地区发生交火,双方均称对方先开火。美国总统特朗普致电两国领导人,施压要求立即停火否则 不会就关税进行谈判。双方已同意在马来西亚举行会谈。降息前景方面，上周美国公布多项经济数据仍偏 强,标普全球制造业PMI 虽有回落,但服务业PMI 创阶段性新高,周度初 ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ななな (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] - Polysilicon: なな☆ (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as "anti - involution" themes, seasonal demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances in different industries. Different metals and industrial products show various trends, and investment strategies vary according to each product's characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Metals and Products Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed down, with the spot copper price at 79,075 yuan and the Shanghai flat - water copper premium at 65 yuan. The trading sentiment in the copper market is cautious. The resistance at the upper integer level of copper prices is significant. It is recommended to hold short positions with a light position [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, with the East China spot at par. In the off - season, the negative feedback of falling demand is obvious. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 35,000 tons in the past week. The upper resistance of Shanghai aluminum is at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative. In the short - term, the price is under pressure, but it has certain resilience compared to the aluminum price in the medium - term. The spot price difference between aluminum and casting aluminum alloy remains at about 1,000 yuan. If the price difference on the trading floor widens, consider a long AD and short AL strategy. Recently, the alumina price has risen sharply, and the industry profit has recovered. The production capacity and output have continuously increased, and the industry is in an oversupply state. It is recommended to take a short position near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - After the fermentation of macro and capital sentiment, the zinc market returns to the fundamental logic. The supply of zinc ore has increased as expected, and the TC in August has further increased. The new production capacity of smelters has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to increase. The consumption has not improved significantly. The upper resistance of Shanghai zinc is at 23,000 yuan. It is recommended to take a short position on rebounds [4] Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai silver opened higher and closed lower on Monday. After the "anti - involution" theme hype cooled down, silver with relatively poor fundamentals may return to the fundamentals. The high - nickel iron price is 913 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened. The overall inventory is still at a high level. Wait patiently for the opportunity to take a short position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed below 268,000 yuan, and the spot tin price was adjusted to 268,800 yuan. Overseas markets are concerned about the low inventory on the LME and are not optimistic about the long - term trend. Holders of short positions from the previous high can reduce their positions appropriately for risk control [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated and hit the daily limit down on Monday. The market rumor that some mining enterprises in Jiangxi have resumed production has affected the market. The total market inventory has reached a recent high of 143,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream has decreased by 3% month - on - month. Technically, the futures price of lithium carbonate is in a deep - water area of the rebound. Above 70,000 yuan, the hedging power increases. Short - sellers should manage their positions [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed down significantly. After the previous sharp rise, the market is in a stage of correction. The trading sentiment has cooled down. With the news of the self - disciplined clearance of small - furnace types in Sichuan, the policy guidance is still expected. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is not advisable to be unilaterally bearish [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures closed down significantly. The terminal is still observing. The monthly supply - demand of polysilicon - silicon wafers is in a tight balance. If the price reaches above 50,000 yuan, the production increase in August needs to be re - evaluated. The market is in a stage of wide - range fluctuation. The support level of PS2509 is temporarily seen at 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton. Due to strong policy uncertainty, it is not advisable to be unilaterally bearish. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11]

Report Investment Ratings - Index Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - As of the week ending July 25, index futures generally rose, with IH2507 up 1.14%, IF2507 up 1.87%, IC2507 up 3.55%, and IM2507 up 2.93%. Market sentiment improved, but off - market funds did not enter significantly, and the upward momentum declined marginally [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, inflation scored 6, liquidity scored 7, valuation scored 11, and market sentiment scored 9. For Treasury bond futures, inflation scored 8, liquidity scored 10, and market sentiment scored 8 [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose 0.35% last week. In the long - term, weak industrial enterprise profits put some pressure on index futures. In the short - term, the low exchange rate due to the US dollar and relatively loose capital conditions led to a high but marginally declining market risk appetite. The overall comprehensive signal for index futures and Treasury bond futures was neutral and oscillating [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy indicators showed different changes. For example, the blast furnace开工率 dropped 2.99%, while the开工率 of automobile tires (all - steel tires) rose 6.30%. The index futures score was 7, and the Treasury bond futures score was 0 [2]. Inflation Indicators - Various inflation - related indicators had different weekly changes. For instance, the vegetable basket product wholesale price 200 - index rose 0.02%. The index futures score was 6, and the Treasury bond futures score was 8 [3]. Liquidity - Liquidity - related indicators such as DR007 and DR001 had certain percentage changes. The index futures score was 7 [4]. Index Valuation - Valuation indicators like PE (TTM) and PS (TTM) increased, while the dividend yield decreased. The index futures score was 10 [5]. Market Sentiment: Index - For the stock market, indicators such as margin trading balances and trading volumes changed. The index futures score was 9 [6]. Market Sentiment: Bond - Bond - related market sentiment indicators, including the yield of 10 - year government bonds and the volatility index, showed different trends. The Treasury bond futures score was 8 [7]. Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes index futures and Treasury bond futures. The strategy uses multi - strategy models for contract allocation, with short - term models focusing on high - frequency data and long - term models on low - frequency macro - economic data [18]. Prediction Signals - According to the short - term and long - term models, the prediction signals for different futures contracts were provided, and the comprehensive signals were calculated [19]. Last Week's Situation - The trading signals of different futures contracts on different days last week were presented, such as on July 25, the IC主力 had a signal of 1 [21]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The strategy is based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor model decomposes the interest rate term structure into three parts, and the signals are classified into three types [22]. Market Quotes and Trading Signals - The trading signals of TF and T主力 contracts from July 21 to July 25 were given, showing different situations on different days [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.11%, -0.48%, and 2.73% respectively. In the public - fund market, the returns of stock - bond strategies were differentiated in the past week. Among equity strategies, passive index - type products led in returns, and market - neutral strategy products mostly rose. In bond strategies, the pure - bond fund index showed a significant decline. In the commodity market, energy - chemical ETFs were strong with a weekly increase of 6.00%, non - ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and precious - metal ETFs continued the upward trend of net value [3]. - Among the CITIC five - style indices, all style indices closed up last Friday. The cycle and growth styles led in returns. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the cycle and stable styles increased significantly, while the momentum of the consumption style decreased slightly. In the public - fund pool, the average returns of financial and consumption - style funds significantly outperformed the index in the past week, with excess returns of 1.14% and 0.23% respectively. The excess returns of cycle and growth - style funds continued to shrink. The stable style strengthened slightly, and the cycle style declined. In terms of crowding, the growth and cycle styles rebounded marginally, while the consumption and financial styles remained in the historically high - crowding range [3]. - Among Barra factors, the residual volatility factor performed well in the past week, with an excess return of 0.60%. The returns of momentum and valuation factors weakened marginally, and the excess return of the profitability factor continued to shrink. In terms of winning rate, the growth factor declined, and the capital - flow factor strengthened slightly. This week, the cross - sectional rotation speed of factors rose from the historically low - quantile range to the middle range. According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened marginally this week, and the consumption style recovered. The current signal favors the consumption style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.36%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was - 1.59% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Performance - Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing) had a weekly return of 2.11%, the ChinaBond Composite Bond Index had a return of - 0.48%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index had a return of 2.73% as of July 25, 2025 [3]. 3.2 Public - Fund Market Performance - **Equity Strategies**: Passive index - type products led in returns, and market - neutral strategy products mostly rose [3]. - **Bond Strategies**: The pure - bond fund index showed a significant decline [3]. - **Commodity Market**: Energy - chemical ETFs had a weekly increase of 6.00%, non - ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and precious - metal ETFs continued the upward trend of net value [3]. 3.3 CITIC Five - Style Index Performance - **Return Performance**: All style indices closed up last Friday. The cycle and growth styles led in returns [3]. - **Relative Strength and Momentum**: The relative strength of the cycle and stable styles increased significantly, while the momentum of the consumption style decreased slightly [3]. - **Fund Excess Return**: The average returns of financial and consumption - style funds significantly outperformed the index in the past week, with excess returns of 1.14% and 0.23% respectively. The excess returns of cycle and growth - style funds continued to shrink [3]. - **Style Trend**: The stable style strengthened slightly, and the cycle style declined [3]. - **Crowding**: The growth and cycle styles rebounded marginally, while the consumption and financial styles remained in the historically high - crowding range [3]. 3.4 Barra Factor Performance - **Factor Return**: The residual volatility factor had an excess return of 0.60%. The returns of momentum and valuation factors weakened marginally, and the excess return of the profitability factor continued to shrink [3]. - **Winning Rate and Momentum**: The growth factor declined in terms of winning rate, and the capital - flow factor strengthened slightly [3]. - **Factor Rotation Speed**: The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors rose from the historically low - quantile range to the middle range [3]. 3.5 Style Timing Strategy - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened marginally this week, and the consumption style recovered. The current signal favors the consumption style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.36%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was - 1.59% [3].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 周五国际油价回落，布伦特10合约周度跌1.13%，sc09合约周度跌0.56%。三季度旺季以来石油市 场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%，OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的 供需盈余压力始终存在。美国政府有意放开雪弗龙在委内瑞拉的经营许可，委内瑞拉原油出口面临 20万桶/天左右的恢复。美日协议以利好落地后，市场对美国与欧盟、中国的贸易谈判走向存在乐观 预期，但我们认为与贸易战相关的利空风险在协议最终落地前始终存在,油价仍以震荡承压为主;8 月底、9月初伊核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 (责金属) 周五贵金属回落。近期美国经济数据体现韧性,美商务部长称8月1日关税上调最后期限不再延长。 美国与多个主要国家关税协议陆续达成，中美即将迎来新一轮谈判，超预期对抗概率较低，责金属 宽幅震荡为主。聚焦本周美联储会议鲍威尔表态是否出现边际变化。 【铜】 上周五铜价收跌，工业品"反内卷"题材下，铜市场交易情绪偏谨慎。美欧达成15%关税协议，美盘 铜价开盘走高。关注内外市场交易情绪变动，倾向 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 周五国际油价回落，布伦特10合约周度跌1.13%，sc09合约周度跌0.56%。三季度旺季以来石油市 场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%，OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的 供需盈余压力始终存在。美国政府有意放开雪弗龙在委内瑞拉的经营许可，委内瑞拉原油出口面临 20万桶/天左右的恢复。美日协议以利好落地后，市场对美国与欧盟、中国的贸易谈判走向存在乐观 预期，但我们认为与贸易战相关的利空风险在协议最终落地前始终存在,油价仍以震荡承压为主;8 月底、9月初伊核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 (责金属) 周五贵金属回落。近期美国经济数据体现韧性,美商务部长称8月1日关税上调最后期限不再延长。 美国与多个主要国家关税协议陆续达成，中美即将迎来新一轮谈判，超预期对抗概率较低，责金属 宽幅震荡为主。聚焦本周美联储会议鲍威尔表态是否出现边际变化。 围绕"反内卷"题材交投降温，锌市资金偏谨慎，多头高位减仓，沪锌2.3万整数关承压。宏观、资 金情绪发酵过后，市场仍将回归基本面主逻辑，锌矿端供应 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Olefins: ★★☆ (suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish or bearish bias, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by macro - policies, and different sectors show different trends and influencing factors. Some sectors are driven by policies, while others are restricted by supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures rose on the day, with macro - positives still boosting the market. The restart of propylene plants and downstream start - up rhythms are in a game, with increased propylene supply weakening the fundamentals and suppressing price rebounds. The market may remain weak in the short term [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to rise. For polyethylene, although macro - policies are positive, demand is weak and domestic supply is abundant. For polypropylene, after the sale of low - price resources, the price center has risen, but short - term demand is affected by the off - season, and the short - term increase may be limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene has strengthened significantly due to the rebound of oil prices and domestic commodity sentiment and policies. The weekly output has declined, and the expectation of hydrogenated benzene is strong. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the mid - to - late third quarter, but it will face pressure again in the fourth quarter. Band operation of monthly spreads is recommended [3] - Styrene futures rose, hitting the half - year line. The macro - aspect continues to boost the market. Downstream buyers operate according to the market, mainly digesting existing raw materials, and spot procurement is on - demand, with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose significantly, driven by oil prices, market sentiment, and policies. PX has limited fundamental drivers. The inventory pressure of filaments has eased, and the drag on upstream raw materials is expected to weaken. PTA processing margins are low and have room for repair, waiting for the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol continued to rise with increased positions, boosted by the positive sentiment in the coal market and domestic policies. Downstream demand is stable on a weekly basis, domestic supply has increased slightly, and ports have slightly accumulated inventory. Overseas device operation is unstable, which may disrupt the market [4] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices rebounded with raw materials. Short - term demand for short fiber is still in the off - season, but new capacity is limited, and the recovery of future demand is expected to boost the industry. For bottle chips, the load continues to decline, and price repair is limited under low - start conditions [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures continued to rise, mainly affected by relevant policies. The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and ports are expected to see unexpected destocking this week. Domestic main - producing area enterprises are starting autumn maintenance, but some enterprises may resume work early or postpone maintenance due to good profits. Downstream procurement is for rigid demand, and enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. The peak season of agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the current operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is still low. Domestic downstream demand is weak. Export goods are being shipped to ports, and production enterprises are continuously destocking, but the destocking rate has slowed down. The market supply remains sufficient, and with policy support, the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices were pushed up by cost due to the fermentation of anti - involution policies, and the futures price was strong. The demand of downstream product enterprises is in the off - season, and social inventory has been accumulating since July. Domestic demand is weak, and export deliveries have decreased. Supply is expected to increase next week. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with cost; in the long term, if the elimination of backward production capacity does not meet expectations, the price may not rise continuously [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Upstream salt has issued an anti - involution document, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect the raw salt industry and drive up the price of caustic soda raw materials. Downstream buyers resist high prices, supply has increased, and inventory has increased month - on - month. Alumina demand provides some support, but non - aluminum downstream demand is average. The short - term market is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the elimination of backward production capacity [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to be strong due to the temporary shutdown of Haitian's device and positive sentiment. Inventory continued to decline, and the spot price increased. The supply is under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry is suffering large losses and is reducing production due to anti - involution policies. In the short term, the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to whether actual policies will be introduced for the small amount of backward production capacity [7] - Glass prices continued to rise, with a 50 - yuan increase in Shahe today. Middle - stream buyers are stocking up, and the industry is in a destocking mode. Industry profits have slightly recovered, and production capacity has fluctuated slightly. Processing orders are weak. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash at low levels can be considered [7]