Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The probability of unexpected confrontation is decreasing, but market uncertainties still exist. Silver has a significant advantage over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk preferences are opened and is currently in an upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether the change in photovoltaic expectations affects the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations [2]. - The global trade situation shows signs of easing, which is one of the main reasons for the pressure on gold prices. The trade agreements between the US and other countries boost market risk preferences and reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. - The robust performance of US economic data is another factor driving down gold prices. Strong economic data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level, and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [3]. 3. Summary by Related Information Impact of Trade Situation on Precious Metals - The US has reached or is expected to reach trade agreements with multiple countries. The trade agreement between the US and Japan reduces the automobile import tariff to 15% and exempts some goods from punitive tariffs. The US - EU trade negotiation also shows positive progress, with an expected 15% benchmark tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% level. These reduce investors' concerns about economic turmoil and weaken the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. Impact of Economic Data on Precious Metals - As of the week of July 19, the US initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest in three months, far lower than the expected 226,000, indicating a stable labor market. The US composite PMI in July rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6, and the service PMI climbed to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic expansion. These data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, leading to a decline in gold prices [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (white star, suggesting short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No specific rating given [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market has continued the inventory - building trend since the peak season in Q3, with a 0.6% reduction in crude oil inventory and a 1.7% increase in refined oil inventory. There is always a supply - demand surplus pressure under the OPEC+ production - increase path. Oil prices are mainly under oscillating pressure, but geopolitical factors may bring support at the end of August and early September [1]. - The fuel oil futures showed strong performance among oil products today. The high - low sulfur spread was under pressure again, and the rebound strength of FU cracking needs further observation. The LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but with a smaller fluctuation range and under pressure on cracking [2]. - The asphalt 09 contract rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day, with low inventory supporting the price, but the upside space is limited before the actual improvement in demand [2]. - The overseas market decline has led to a weakening of the domestic LPG market. Domestic chemical demand is strong in the short term, and domestic gas is expected to stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market is loose, and the futures market is mainly weak [3]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC09 contract up 1.71% during the day. The oil market has continued the inventory - building trend since Q3, with a 0.6% reduction in crude oil inventory and a 1.7% increase in refined oil inventory. The US government may allow Chevron to operate in Venezuela, which may lead to a recovery of about 200,000 barrels per day in Venezuelan crude oil exports. Before the final implementation of trade agreements, there are still bearish risks related to trade wars. Oil prices are mainly under oscillating pressure, but geopolitical factors may bring support at the end of August and early September [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, fuel - related futures showed strong performance among oil products, with FU leading the gains. The high - low sulfur spread was under pressure again after two consecutive days of rebound, and the FU cracking rebounded slightly from a low level. The Singapore diesel cracking dropped slightly from a high level. The LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but with a smaller fluctuation range and under pressure on cracking [2] Asphalt - The 09 contract rebounded after hitting the bottom at 3593 yuan/ton during the day, with a small increase at the close but a relatively weak increase among oil products. Chevron is allowed to continue operating in Venezuela, which may increase Venezuelan oil production. The August refinery production plan decreased significantly compared with July. Affected by the widespread rainfall, demand recovery was slower than expected. The inventory of refineries decreased, and the social inventory remained flat, with the overall commercial inventory decreasing month - on - month. Low inventory supports the price, but the upside space is limited before the actual improvement in demand [2] LPG - The overseas market decline has led to a weakening of the domestic LPG market. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Domestic PDH has resumed production rapidly, with good short - term chemical demand. The refinery's external supply volume has decreased slightly, and domestic gas is expected to stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market is loose, strengthening the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is mainly weak [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as the year - to - date price changes and weekly capital flow and position changes of these futures [2][4][11] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview Precious Metals - Gold closed at 777.32 with a weekly increase of 12.11%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.88%, speculation degree of 1.15, trend degree of 0.14, and capital change of 29.31 [2] - Silver closed at 9,392.00 with a weekly increase of 14.74%, volatility change of 6.39%, speculation degree of 2.00, trend degree of 0.18, and capital change of - 21.41 [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 79,250.00 with a weekly increase of 11.02%, volatility change of 8.11%, speculation degree of 0.48, trend degree of 0.00, and capital change of 7.27 [2] - Nickel closed at 124,360.00 with a weekly increase of 13.55%, volatility change of - 2.59%, speculation degree of 2.20, trend degree of 0.29, and capital change of 8.73 [2] - Aluminum closed at 20,760.00 with a weekly increase of 9.94%, volatility change of 19.17%, speculation degree of 0.51, trend degree of 0.12, and capital change of 3.46 [2] - Tin closed at 271,630.00 with a weekly increase of 15.43%, volatility change of 6.80%, speculation degree of 4.91, trend degree of 0.23, and capital change of 7.86 [2] - Zinc closed at 22,885.00 with a weekly increase of 14.07%, volatility change of 28.29%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.34, and capital change of 2.15 [2] - Lead closed at 16,955.00 with a weekly increase of 7.59%, volatility change of - 11.79%, speculation degree of 0.85, trend degree of 0.05, and capital change of - 0.08 [2] - Industrial silicon closed at 9,725.00 with a weekly increase of 42.16%, volatility change of 17.35%, speculation degree of 3.43, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 1.14 [2] Black Metals - Rebar closed at 3,356.00 with a weekly increase of 16.64%, volatility change of 46.68%, speculation degree of 1.43, trend degree of 0.34, and capital change of 11.10 [2] - Iron ore closed at 802.50 with a weekly increase of 20.75%, volatility change of 25.20%, speculation degree of 0.88, trend degree of - 0.05, and capital change of - 18.35 [2] - Coke closed at 1,763.00 with a weekly increase of 33.70%, volatility change of 29.75%, speculation degree of 1.67, trend degree of 0.49, and capital change of 5.61 [2] - Coking coal closed at 1,259.00 with a weekly increase of 50.73%, volatility change of 54.67%, speculation degree of 4.70, trend degree of 0.88, and capital change of 56.65 [2] - Hot - rolled coil closed at 3,507.00 with a weekly increase of 16.27%, volatility change of 44.49%, speculation degree of 0.71, trend degree of 0.38, and capital change of 10.40 [2] - Ferrosilicon closed at 6,166.00 with a weekly increase of 36.16%, volatility change of 64.42%, speculation degree of 1.93, trend degree of 0.28, and capital change of 4.91 [2] - Silicomanganese closed at 6,414.00 with a weekly increase of 30.90%, volatility change of 119.78%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 9.12 [2] - Stainless steel closed at 13,030.00 with a weekly increase of 9.23%, volatility change of 0.58%, speculation degree of 1.66, trend degree of 0.27, and capital change of 3.73 [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 512.90 with a weekly decrease of 0.56%, volatility change of - 49.31%, speculation degree of 3.68, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of 0.85 [2] - Fuel oil closed at 2,915.00 with a weekly increase of 0.10%, volatility change of - 51.42%, speculation degree of 2.64, trend degree of 0.10, and capital change of 1.58 [2] - LU closed at 3,613.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.61%, volatility change of - 57.51%, speculation degree of 1.48, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital change of - 1.12 [2] - LPG closed at 4,047.00 with a weekly increase of 1.43%, volatility change of - 38.51%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.19, and capital change of 2.05 [2] - Asphalt closed at 3,615.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.09%, volatility change of - 55.52%, speculation degree of 0.98, trend degree of - 0.18, and capital change of - 2.77 [2] - PVC closed at 5,373.00 with a weekly increase of 8.83%, volatility change of 61.62%, speculation degree of 2.08, trend degree of 0.47, and capital change of 1.77 [2] - Polyethylene closed at 7,456.00 with a weekly increase of 3.33%, volatility change of - 5.38%, speculation degree of 0.91, trend degree of 0.45, and capital change of - 0.45 [2] - Polypropylene closed at 7,221.00 with a weekly increase of 2.97%, volatility change of - 8.60%, speculation degree of 0.94, trend degree of 0.47, and capital change of 0.73 [2] - Styrene closed at 7,587.00 with a weekly increase of 4.52%, volatility change of - 21.67%, speculation degree of 1.37, trend degree of 0.44, and capital change of - 0.39 [2] - PTA closed at 4,936.00 with a weekly increase of 4.05%, volatility change of - 38.50%, speculation degree of 1.01, trend degree of 0.31, and capital change of 4.10 [2] - Ethylene glycol closed at 4,545.00 with a weekly increase of 3.86%, volatility change of - 39.08%, speculation degree of 0.87, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 2.83 [2] - Short - fiber closed at 6,606.00 with a weekly increase of 3.67%, volatility change of - 21.55%, speculation degree of 1.31, trend degree of 0.43, and capital change of 0.10 [2] - Methanol closed at 2,519.00 with a weekly increase of 6.51%, volatility change of - 9.47%, speculation degree of 1.54, trend degree of 0.46, and capital change of 3.33 [2] - Urea closed at 1,803.00 with a weekly increase of 3.32%, volatility change of 32.12%, speculation degree of 1.49, trend degree of 0.16, and capital change of 0.44 [2] - Glass closed at 1,362.00 with a weekly increase of 25.99%, volatility change of 60.25%, speculation degree of 3.88, trend degree of 0.58, and capital change of - 4.10 [2] - Soda ash closed at 1,440.00 with a weekly increase of 18.42%, volatility change of 74.17%, speculation degree of 3.49, trend degree of 0.48, and capital change of - 17.51 [2] - Natural rubber closed at 15,585.00 with a weekly increase of 5.23%, volatility change of - 8.64%, speculation degree of 3.10, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 1.38 [2] Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 14,170.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.70%, volatility change of 0.35%, speculation degree of 0.46, trend degree of - 0.23, and capital change of - 2.59 [2] - Sugar closed at 5,876.00 with a weekly increase of 0.86%, volatility change of - 12.50%, speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of 0.19, and capital change of 3.48 [2] - Corn closed at 2,311.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.13%, volatility change of - 6.18%, speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of - 5.61 [2] - Apple closed at 8,005.00 with a weekly increase of 1.55%, volatility change of - 19.35%, speculation degree of 0.46, trend degree of 0.26, and capital change of - 0.24 [2] - Starch closed at 2,665.00 with a weekly increase of 0.26%, volatility change of - 4.75%, speculation degree of 0.49, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of - 1.69 [2] - Soybean No.1 closed at 4,224.00 with a weekly increase of 0.84%, volatility change of - 15.66%, speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of 0.23, and capital change of 1.29 [2] - Soybean No.2 closed at 3,661.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.74%, volatility change of - 11.64%, speculation degree of 1.21, trend degree of - 0.17, and capital change of 0.06 [2] - Soybean meal closed at 3,021.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.15%, volatility change of - 5.58%, speculation degree of 0.69, trend degree of 0.03, and capital change of - 7.69 [2] - Soybean oil closed at 8,144.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.20%, volatility change of - 19.62%, speculation degree of 0.67, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital change of - 1.61 [2] - Palm oil closed at 8,936.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.31%, volatility change of - 1.15%, speculation degree of 1.41, trend degree of 0.04, and capital change of - 14.42 [2] - Rapeseed meal closed at 2,675.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.73%, volatility change of - 7.60%, speculation degree of 0.73, trend degree of - 0.08, and capital change of - 2.43 [2] - Rapeseed oil closed at 9,457.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.35%, volatility change of - 9.93%, speculation degree of 1.26, trend degree of - 0.21, and capital change of - 4.46 [2] Forest Products - Pulp closed at 5,520.00 with a weekly increase of 4.31%, volatility change of - 45.72%, speculation degree of 2.11, trend degree of 0.49, and capital change of 3.31 [2] Livestock Products - Live pigs closed at 14,385.00 with a weekly increase of 1.77%, volatility change of 15.99%, speculation degree of 1.10, trend degree of 0.15, and capital change of 14.31 [2] Financial Futures - IC closed at 6,216.00 with a weekly increase of 3.59%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.92%, volatility change of - 7.44%, speculation degree of 0.43, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 50.63 [4] - IF closed at 4,116.00 with a weekly increase of 1.84%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.07%, volatility change of - 23.25%, speculation degree of 0.39, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 34.02 [4] - IM closed at 6,605.80 with a weekly increase of 3.00%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 12.19%, volatility change of - 16.14%, speculation degree of 0.65, trend degree of 0.31, and capital change of 72.21 [4] - IH closed at 2,796.80 with a weekly increase of 1.08%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 7.06%, volatility change of - 27.82%, speculation degree of 0.55, trend degree of 0.10, and capital change of 9.98 [4] - T closed at 108.18 with a weekly decrease of 0.56%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 1.62%, volatility change of 16.55%, speculation degree of 0.47, trend degree of - 0.24, and capital change of 2.37 [4] - TS closed at 102.31 with a weekly decrease of 0.12%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 0.42%, volatility change of 12.45%, speculation degree of 0.41, trend degree of - 0.16, and capital change of - 1.57 [4] - TF closed at 105.57 with a weekly decrease of 0.40%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 1.13%, volatility change of 10.65%, speculation degree of 0.48, trend degree of - 0.32, and capital change of 0.07 [4] Year - to - Date Price Changes - Gold has a year - to - date increase of 25.86%, silver 25.73%, and other varieties have different year - to - date price changes, such as红枣 (13.41%), apple (13.06%), etc [11] Weekly Capital Flow and Position Changes - The capital attention of coking coal, gold, live pigs, rebar, and hot - rolled coil has increased [13] - The positions of crude oil

【钢材】 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆★ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★★☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★★☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★★★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日盘面继续上涨。本周螺纹表需明显回暖，产量小幅回升，库存重新下降，热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 "反内卷 ...

| >国投期货 11/1 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月25日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★★☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今天郑棉小幅上涨,郑棉盘中冲高回落,商品继续走强,棉花也有所带动。现货基差总体持稳、成交一般。7月上半月棉花库存 去化速度有所放缓，截至7月15号，棉花商业库存为254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进口延续偏低的趋 势, 2025年6月进口3万吨, 再创近20年新低, 同比降12.53万吨, 环比降0.45万吨;2025年1-6月累计进 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, with the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value at 49.5 falling short of expectations but the Services PMI at 55.2 being strong, and the weekly initial jobless claims at 217,000 remaining low. The precious metals are mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The probability of an unexpected confrontation is decreasing, but market uncertainties still exist [2]. - Silver has significant advantages over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk appetites are opened, and it is currently in an upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether the change in photovoltaic expectations affects the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations [2]. - The easing signs of the global trade situation and the strong performance of U.S. economic data are the main reasons for the decline in gold prices. These factors reduce investors' concerns about economic turmoil and weaken the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset [2][3] Summary by Related Content Economic Data - The July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value in the U.S. is 49.5, which is lower than expected, while the Services PMI is 55.2, showing strong performance. The weekly initial jobless claims are 217,000, remaining at a low level. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest level in three months, far lower than the economists' expected 226,000. The July U.S. Composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6, and the Services PMI climbed significantly to 55.2, indicating an accelerated expansion of economic activities [2][3] Trade Situation - The U.S. and multiple countries are expected to reach tariff agreements one after another. The U.S. and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces the automobile import tariff to 15% and exempts some goods from punitive tariffs. The U.S. and the EU's trade negotiations have also shown positive progress, and the market expects the two sides to reach an agreement with a 15% benchmark tariff, lower than the 30% tariff level previously threatened by Trump [2] Precious Metals Market - Precious metals are mainly in a wide - range oscillation. Silver has significant advantages over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk appetites are opened and is in an upward trend. The change in photovoltaic expectations may affect the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations. The easing of the global trade situation and strong U.S. economic data have put pressure on gold prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - For soybeans and related products, pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions. In the short - term, soybean and soybean meal markets are volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended before the tariff and weather issues are clear. For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a strategy of buying on dips. Be cautious about the situation of stronger oil and weaker meal in the fourth quarter [2][3][4]. - Rapeseed products are in a weak oscillation state, and the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited. Focus on economic and trade prospects and production area weather [6]. - Corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly. Keep an eye on the supply in the circulation link and the inventory of old grain [7]. - For eggs, near - month futures are weak, while far - month contracts for next year's first half are strong. Be cautious about the pressure of cold - stored eggs leaving the warehouse [9]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Soybeans - Domestic soybeans' main contract has a narrow - range oscillation this week, with prices remaining relatively strong. The domestic soybean spot is stable. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade negotiation next week and the short - term waterlogging risk in the northern production areas. The overall weather risk in the US soybean production areas from late July to early August is low [2]. 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Dalian soybean meal futures continue to oscillate downward. The third - round Sino - US trade talks may yield results next week. The US soybean production areas will have slightly more rainfall than normal in the next two weeks, and there will be high - temperature and then cooling processes in the central and southeastern regions. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, treat the soybean meal market as oscillatory [3]. 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil has a significant reduction in positions at a phased high, and the price drops. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade negotiation next week. The vegetable oil price is affected by the macro - situation, and the capital fluctuation is large at the phased high. Although the short - term supply - demand data of Malaysian palm oil is weak, the data of Indonesia is more optimistic, and the prices of international sunflower oil, palm kernel oil, and coconut oil are strong, which boosts palm oil. Maintain a strategy of buying soybean oil and palm oil on dips. Be cautious about the situation of stronger oil and weaker meal in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products are mainly in a weak oscillation state with a small fluctuation range. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed production area has improved, and the fund's net long position continues to decline. The domestic rapeseed demand is expected to slow down, but the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited due to the seasonal support of aquatic feed and the expected low import of rapeseed in the third quarter [6]. 3.5 Corn - Corn futures continue to oscillate weakly. The auction of imported corn by China Grain Reserves Corporation has a 28% transaction rate. The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [7]. 3.6 Live Pigs - The text about live pigs mainly mentions the situation of corn futures. There is no specific information about live pigs in the provided content [8]. 3.7 Eggs - Near - month egg futures are weak, while far - month contracts for next year's first half are strong due to the expected price reversal after capacity reduction. The spot price is stable across the country, and it is necessary to be cautious about the pressure of cold - stored eggs leaving the warehouse [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: It has different ratings in the table, but generally the market situation is complex, and ratings seem inconsistent in the given table [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Zinc: The rating in the table is not clearly interpretable, but the market is cautious and the overall suggestion is for a short - selling strategy [1][4] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Carbonate Lithium: The rating in the table is not clearly interpretable, but the short - term trading strategy is to buy on dips [1][9] - Industrial Silicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable, and the price is expected to be volatile [1][10] - Polysilicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable, and short - selling is not recommended [1][11] 2. Core Views - The "anti - involution" theme in the industrial products market has made the trading sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market cautious, and the market is affected by both macro factors and fundamental supply - demand relationships [2][4] - Each non - ferrous metal has its own supply - demand situation and price trends, and investors should make corresponding trading decisions based on different metal characteristics [2][3][4] 3. Summaries by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper closed with a negative trend. The current copper price is 79,450 yuan, and the Shanghai premium is 125 yuan. The trading sentiment is cautious, and it is believed that there is strong resistance at the integer level above the copper price. With the strong service PMI in the US and Europe and the change in German manufacturing momentum, the US manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 in July. It is recommended to hold short positions with a light position [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum has a narrow - range fluctuation, and the East China spot premium is 10 yuan. The aluminum ingot social inventory has been gradually increasing, and the demand has declined but not exceeded the seasonal level. Shanghai aluminum is in a short - term high - level shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, with weak demand but tight scrap aluminum supply and negative industry profits, which is more supportive compared to the aluminum price. Alumina rose and then fell, with high - level fluctuations. The northern spot transaction this week was close to 3,300 yuan, and the warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is extremely low. After the futures premium, it will attract the inflow of warehouse receipts. The alumina industry has a low proportion of old - fashioned production capacity, and the current operating capacity is in a relatively over - supplied state. Be vigilant against the callback risk after the price rise driven by policy expectations [3] Zinc - The market sentiment is volatile due to the difficult - to - distinguish true and false news around the "anti - involution" theme. The zinc market funds are cautious, and long - position holders are reducing their positions at high levels. The 23,000 - yuan integer level of Shanghai zinc is under pressure, and the weighted position has dropped to 233,000 lots. After the fermentation of macro and capital emotions, the market will return to the fundamental logic. The supply of zinc ore has increased as expected, new smelter production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to increase, while the consumption has not improved significantly. The general direction is to short on rebounds. In the third quarter, the policy is relatively optimistic, and the high - level range of Shanghai zinc is expected to be between 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [4] Lead - The lead price is at a low level. Recycled lead holders are reluctant to sell, and the SMM refined - scrap lead price is the same. The average price of 1 lead has a real - time discount of 135 yuan/ton to the 08 contract. Downstream buyers prefer to purchase low - price factory - picked lead from smelters and primary lead. The SMM lead inventory has slowly increased to 71,400 tons. The spot import window is closed, the raw material supply is tight, and with cost support, Shanghai lead seems to have limited room to fall. The peak - season demand is slow to materialize, affected by tariffs and pre - consumption. However, funds are gradually increasing their positions, and the funds deposited in Shanghai lead are 1.6 billion yuan. Be vigilant against the unilateral market after the end of fund accumulation. Try to go long with a light position on dips, and hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has risen in a volatile manner, and the market trading is active. Under the guidance of the "anti - involution" theme, certain trading strategies are targeting short - crowded varieties. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,000 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 100 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 4,300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 8,000 tons to 983,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7] Tin - Shanghai tin has reduced its positions and recovered the decline below 270,000 yuan. Overnight, LME tin encountered resistance and closed with a negative trend below $35,000. Above 270,000 yuan, Shanghai tin is at a relatively high level. This week, the low LME inventory and the expanding spot premium have driven the price increase. The market is also concerned about the flood situation in the Wa State of Myanmar and the annual maintenance time of leading enterprises. The medium - to - long - term trend is not optimistic, and holders of short positions at the previous high level can appropriately reduce their positions for risk control [8] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price has reached the daily limit, and the market trading is active. A large amount of hot money has flowed into the market. The main contradiction in the market is the large number of short - hedging and investment positions concentrated around 77,000 yuan, which will face serious stop - loss pressure. The total market inventory has continued to rise to the recent high of 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 600 tons to 58,000 tons, the downstream inventory has slightly increased by 500 tons to 41,000 tons, and traders have continued to replenish their stocks by 1,880 tons to 43,000 tons. Traders have a positive attitude, and the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continues. The latest price of Australian ore is $760, with a large rebound from the low level. The short - term trading strategy is to buy on dips [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures have slightly increased. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon has remained stable at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the SMM weekly social inventory has continued to decrease by 12,000 tons. However, the current fundamental factors have become secondary, and the "anti - involution" logic is the main driving force. After the price rebound, there are some differences in the market sentiment, and there are many policy - related news disturbances. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to position control [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has risen and then fallen, with a slight decline. In the spot market, the price of N - type re -投料 has increased by 500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton. Driven by the industry response, the upward trend of the spot price may not end. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 240 lots yesterday, and there is an expectation of further increase. High prices are also likely to trigger changes in trading rules. Without greater - scale capacity policies, the price trend may change from a sharp and rapid increase to a slow increase, but the policy uncertainty is large. Short - selling is not recommended. If following the current trend, pay attention to the risk of the price rising and then falling back during the day, and control the position well [11]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%， OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击，近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多，油价以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌，与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲，德国制造业动能转折， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market has continued the inventory accumulation trend since the third - quarter peak season, with supply - demand surplus pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. Oil prices are mainly under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. - Precious metals are in a wide - range oscillation as economic data shows resilience and the probability of extreme tariff confrontation is decreasing [3]. - Different commodities have various trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity [2 - 49]. Summary by Categories Energy Crude Oil - Since the third - quarter peak season, the oil market has seen crude oil inventory decline by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increase by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources. FU is relatively weak, and LU follows crude oil with less volatility [22]. Asphalt - It is supported at around 3590 yuan/ton. August refinery production is expected to decline, and demand recovery is delayed. Low inventory provides support but limits the upside [23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas market decline has driven the domestic market down. With weak supply and demand, the domestic market may stabilize, and the futures market is weak [24]. Metals Copper - The copper market is cautious, with resistance at the upper integer level. It is recommended to hold a short position lightly [4]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with resistance at around 21,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Zinc - Supported by cost, it oscillates around 23,000 yuan. There is a chance to go short at a high level [8]. Lead - With tight raw material supply and cost support, it shows limited downside. It is recommended to buy call options lightly [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is in the middle - late stage of a rebound. Wait for a short - selling opportunity [10]. Tin - The Shanghai tin market has risen above 270,000 yuan, but the long - term trend is not optimistic. Consider reducing short positions [11]. Manganese and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - manganese inventory is decreasing, and it follows the trend of rebar with a relatively small increase [19]. Iron Ore - Supply is stable, and demand is resilient. It follows the black - series trend but is at a relatively high price [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coking coal and coke are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [17][18]. Chemicals Urea - Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and overall demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Methanol - The futures market is strong, affected by policies. Inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to market rhythm [26]. Pure Benzene - Its price has strengthened, with seasonal improvement expected in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter. Consider monthly spread trading [27]. Styrene - It continues to move sideways, with weakening macro - support and poor spot trading [28]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply pressure increases, polyethylene has weak fundamentals, and polypropylene's short - term increase is limited [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is strong due to policies, but long - term growth is uncertain. Caustic soda is also strong, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [30]. PX and PTA - Their prices are rising, with PTA having room for processing margin repair. Follow domestic policies [31]. Ethylene Glycol - It is rising, supported by coal market sentiment and policies. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [32]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Their prices follow raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, and bottle - chip's profit repair is limited [33]. Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [37]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips, and pay attention to weather and policies [38]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed - related products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39]. Corn - The corn market has few contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [41]. Live Pigs - Near - month contracts may face a risk of decline, while far - month contracts are affected by capacity reduction expectations [42]. Eggs - Near - month contracts may be under pressure, and far - month contracts may rise after capacity reduction [43]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a high - level oscillation. Wait and see or conduct intraday trading [44]. Sugar - The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with pressure on US sugar and uncertainties in domestic production [45]. Apples - The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the price of new - season early - maturing apples [46]. Others Timber - The futures price is oscillating. Supply is limited, but demand is in the off - season, so wait and see [47]. Pulp - It may oscillate strongly following commodities. Consider buying on dips lightly [48]. Stock Index - The stock index has risen, and the market risk preference is stable. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector [49]. Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are rising. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening [50]. Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) may oscillate widely in the short term. Consider short - selling on rallies [21].