| | | | VY & SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面大幅走强。螺纹表需环比回暖，产量小幅回升，库存低位小幅下降。热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 ...

| Millio | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月29日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属窄幅波动。近期地缘风险相对平稳,关税谈判有序推进,中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩开始举 行,避险需求回落压制黄金表现,预计短期贵金属维持震荡走势。本周重点聚焦美联储会议和美国非农就业 等一系列重要数据发布。今晚关注美国6月JOLTs职位空缺数。 ★关税 -- 1孟加拉国欲购波音飞机,争取美国降低关税。②韩国提出"让美国造船业再次伟大",力争尽 快达成关税协议。韩国总统办公室表示，美国贸易谈判包括增加国防开支和购买美国武器。③美欧仍在就葡 萄酒和烈酒的关税豁免进行讨论。④特朗普：我们将在近期宣布对药品征收关税；全球关税将在15-20%左 右。⑤加拿大 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking" by Guotou Futures [1] Report Date - The report was published on July 29, 2025, by the Financial Engineering Group of Guotou Futures Research Institute [2] Core View - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased this week, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the black and non - ferrous sectors. The relatively strong sector in cross - section is agriculture, while the relatively weak one is energy [3] Commodity Market Analysis Overall Situation - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased this week, with the black and non - ferrous sectors showing a decline in factor strength. The agriculture sector is cross - sectionally strong, and the energy sector is weak [3] Sector - Specific Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold has stabilized, and the differentiation within the precious metals sector has narrowed [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The position factor of the non - ferrous sector has significantly declined, and the cross - sectional differentiation has increased. Copper is relatively strong, and nickel is relatively weak [3] - **Black Metals**: The momentum factor has marginally decreased but has not reversed, and the term structure differentiation has narrowed [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: There is cross - sectional momentum differentiation, with chemicals being weaker than energy [3] - **Agriculture**: The positions of oilseeds and meals have both declined, with soybean meal having a larger decline. It is recommended to go long on the oil - meal ratio [3] Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor increased by 0.72%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02%, and the spread factor decreased by 0.05%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned short [5] - **Fundamental Factors**: The domestic methanol plant capacity utilization rate increased (supply short); the raw material procurement volume of methanol - to - olefins enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers decreased (demand short continued); the East China port significantly destocked (inventory turned long); the domestic methanol spot market price continuously released long signals, but the futures closing price released short signals, and the long strength of the spread weakened and turned neutral [5] Float Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.84%, the spread factor increased by 1.77%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [8] - **Fundamental Factors**: The float glass production volume increased slightly month - on - month (supply remained neutral); the number of commercial housing transactions in third - tier cities decreased (demand was neutrally bearish); float glass enterprises continued to destock (inventory long continued); the glass spot price in the Shahe market released short signals (spread short); the pre - tax gross profit of power - coal - made float glass turned from negative to positive (profit was neutrally bullish) [8] Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.04%, the inventory factor remained unchanged, the spread factor strengthened by 0.47%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.22%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [8] - **Fundamental Factors**: The cumulative value of iron ore raw ore production continued to decline (supply signal remained neutral); the global crude steel production this month increased compared to last month (demand signal remained short); the iron concentrate powder inventory in 45 ports continued to decline this week (inventory remained neutral); the price of Atlas powder sold at Rizhao Port increased (spread signal turned neutral) [8] Shanghai Aluminum - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.31%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.31%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.08%, the spread factor weakened by 0.28%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.11%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short [8] - **Fundamental Factors**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee continued to decline (supply signal remained short); the export volume of Chinese starting lead - acid batteries this month continued to decrease (demand signal remained long); the combined inventory of LME lead continued to decline (inventory turned neutral); the LME lead 0 - 3 month premium and discount decreased (spread signal remained short) [8] Performance Data Commodity CTA Factors | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.02 | - 0.19 | | Demand | 0.72 | 0.30 | | Inventory | - 0.02 | 1.00 | | Spread | - 0.05 | 0.14 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | 0.00 | - 0.33 | [4] Other Factors in Different Commodities - **Float Glass**: Supply (last week: 0.00%, current month: 1.97%), Demand (last week: 0.00%, current month: 1.51%), Inventory (last week: 0.84%, current month: 3.57%), Spread (last week: 1.77%, current month: 2.20%), Profit (last week: 0.00%, current month: 0.00%), Aggregate of Major Categories (last week: 0.00%, current month: 1.97%) [8] - **Iron Ore**: Supply (last week: - 0.04%, current month: 0.00%), Inventory (last week: 0.00%, current month: - 0.36%), Spread (last week: 0.47%, current month: 0.47%), Aggregate of Major Categories (last week: 0.22%, current month: 0.11%) [8] - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Supply (last week: - 0.31%, current month: 0.50%), Demand (last week: 0.31%, current month: - 0.49%), Inventory (last week: - 0.08%, current month: 0.81%), Spread (last week: - 0.28%, current month: 0.91%), Aggregate of Major Categories (last week: - 0.11%, current month: 0.47%) [8] Factor Intensity in Different Sectors | Sector | Momentum Time - Series | Momentum Cross - Section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | 0.05 | - 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.19 | | Non - Ferrous Metals | 0.56 | 0.93 | - 0.62 | - 0.64 | | Energy and Chemicals | 0.01 | 0.57 | 0.02 | 0.16 | | Agriculture | 0.41 | - 0.67 | 0.93 | | | Stock Index | 0.31 | - 0.38 | 0.45 | - 0.48 | | Precious Metals | 0.34 | | | 0.09 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and summarizes the long - short views and trading logic of various futures varieties [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From July 21 to July 25, 2025, among commodities, the prices of some commodities such as coking coal, glass, and polysilicon increased significantly, with coking coal rising 35.96%, glass 25.99%, and polysilicon 16.36%. While the prices of some commodities such as corn, palm oil, and crude oil decreased, with corn down 0.13%, palm oil 0.31%, and crude oil 0.56% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), overseas stocks (Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, etc.) generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 500 rose 3.28%, the Nikkei 225 4.11%, and the Hang Seng Index 2.27% [2]. - **Bonds**: The prices of Chinese treasury bonds (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year) all increased, with the 5 - year treasury bond rising 5.91%, the 10 - year 4.35%, and the 2 - year 3.28% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.99%, while the US dollar index fell 0.80% and the US dollar intermediate price fell 0.11% [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include large - scale infrastructure projects driving policy - based demand expectations, the fermentation of the anti - involution market, the rise of pro - cyclical sectors, and the increase in A - share trading volume. The bearish factors include the pressure of short - term profit - taking, potential regulatory measures, the reduction of ETF shares, and increased market risk aversion [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the central bank's loose liquidity policy, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the potential improvement of the bond market sentiment. The bearish factors include the stock - bond seesaw effect, the improvement of corporate expectations, and the expected fiscal expansion [4]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include strong fundamental demand in the peak season, potential interest rate cuts, tight Russian shipments, and a decline in US crude oil production. The bearish factors include the peak refinery utilization rate, a stronger US dollar, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential return of Iranian supply [5]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the unexpected US biodiesel policy, increased domestic consumption in Malaysia, limited production potential in Southeast Asia, low inventories in India, and the support of Indonesia's B50 blending policy. The bearish factors include good production performance, lower - than - expected exports, and expected inventory accumulation in China [5]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the boost of the "anti - involution" policy, the recovery of global manufacturing PMI, long - term demand expectations from infrastructure projects, and low domestic copper inventories. The bearish factors include potential price fluctuations due to macro events, weak US manufacturing data, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential decline in copper prices following the weakening of the commodity market sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the stimulation of macro - policies, strong arbitrage demand, inventory reduction, and the approaching peak season. The bearish factors include speculative inventory accumulation, potential profit - taking, weak real - estate data, and potential supply increases [6]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the expectation of a Fed rate cut, increased risk - aversion demand, potential trade - related risks, policy uncertainty, and increased net long positions. The bearish factors include progress in trade negotiations, strong US economic data, the Fed's possible wait - and - see attitude, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include high molten iron production, macro - economic support, price increases in coke, and the recovery of coking plant production. The bearish factors include regulatory measures, the resumption of coal mine production, sufficient imported coal supply, and increased coking plant inventories [7].

【原油】 隔夜国际油价上涨，布伦特10合约涨2.96%。周日欧美贸易协议以15%的对等关税平稳落地。仅为 美国此前威胁30%的一半水平,有消息称本周将于瑞典举行的中美经贸谈判将把8月12日到期的对等 关税暂免进一步延期90天。在宏观面利好走向的基础之上，周一特朗普表示将把原定于9月初到期的 俄乌停火50天最后期限缩短至未来的10至12天,我们此前预估的地缘博弈窗口期前置。油价短期再 度获得支撑。 【铜】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月29日 (贵金属) 近期地缘风险相对平稳，关税谈判有序推进，中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩开始举行，避险需求 回落压制黄金表现,预计短期贵金属维持震荡走势。本周重点关注美联储会议和美国非农就业等一 系列重要数据发布。 隔夜铜价收跌，市场等待美国关税具体落地信息。国内SMM社库增加6100吨至12.03万吨。内外铜价 短线关注MA40日均线，铜价可能跌回MA60日均线。 (铝) 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。淡季需求回落负反馈显现，铸锭量增加后过去一周铝锭社库增加3.5万吨。沪铝 持仓降至62万手，上方21000元具备阻力。 (铸造铝合金) ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The macro - positive situation and geopolitical factors support short - term oil price increases, while precious metals are expected to fluctuate due to reduced risk - aversion demand. Base metals, energy, chemical, and agricultural products show diversified trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and international trade negotiations [2][3] - The stock index market has a good capital sentiment, and the bond market shows signs of stabilization due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" market [46][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 2.96%. Favorable macro factors and geopolitical changes support short - term oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is in a downward trend. Fuel oil shows relative weakness compared to crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil with smaller fluctuations [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market decline due to export pressure, with the domestic market under pressure and maintaining a weak oscillation [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to reduced risk - aversion demand. Key data releases such as the Fed meeting and US non - farm payrolls should be monitored this week [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is waiting for US tariff details, and copper prices may decline to the MA60 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The increase in ingot inventory and weak demand in the off - season put pressure on prices [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic, with supply increasing and consumption showing no significant improvement. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities as the market may return to fundamentals [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. Long - term supply expectations may suppress prices, and high - level short positions above 270,000 yuan can be held [11] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead oscillates in a narrow range at a low level. Supply pressure slightly eases, and consumption is entering the peak season, but actual growth needs to be observed [9] - **Silicon and Related Alloys**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. They are expected to maintain wide - range oscillations, and caution is needed when taking unilateral short positions [13][14] - **Iron and Steel**: Steel prices are affected by factors such as cost support, demand changes, and the "anti - involution" sentiment. They are under short - term pressure and show increased volatility [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market oscillates. Supply and demand show certain changes, and the impact of the "anti - involution" sentiment on the market is weakening [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices oscillate. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the market is affected by factors such as the "anti - involution" sentiment and production policies [16] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium oscillated and hit the daily limit down. The market is affected by factors such as production resumption rumors, inventory changes, and technical indicators. Short - sellers should manage their positions [12] - **Urea**: Urea futures declined. Agricultural demand is weakening, and exports are progressing. The short - term market is expected to operate within a range [23] - **Methanol**: Methanol futures fell. Supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The market is expected to oscillate weakly if it returns to the fundamental trading logic [24] - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene prices adjusted. There are expectations of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. Month - spread band trading is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: Styrene futures faced resistance at the half - year line. Supply pressure is high, and demand is stable [26] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The market lacks obvious news guidance. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is limited [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices fell from a high level. Supply decreased, and demand is weak in the short term but may improve in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to face pressure at a high level [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA prices fell back. PTA continues to accumulate inventory, and the processing margin needs to be repaired with the recovery of downstream demand [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices fell due to sentiment. Supply may increase, and demand is stable, showing low - level fluctuations [30] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, while bottle - chip is restricted by over - capacity [31] - **Glass**: Glass prices fell. The market is expected to return to reality trading, and long - term demand is poor [32] - **Natural Rubber and Related Products**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and demand is weakening. The strategy is to wait and see for natural rubber and bullish for butadiene rubber [33] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices fell. Supply is high, and the photovoltaic industry is reducing production. It is a long - term short - selling product [34] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade negotiations are the focus. New - season US soybeans may have a good harvest if the weather is favorable. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the tariff issue is clear [34] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and weather. The strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the short - term strong - oil and weak - meal situation [35] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as Sino - Canadian relations and market fundamentals [36] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans decreased in position and adjusted. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, policy, and US weather [37] - **Corn**: Corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market is affected by factors such as auction supply and US corn prices [38] - **Hogs**: Hog futures are expected to be weak in the later stage. The supply in the second half of the year is sufficient, and the industry is recommended to hedge on rallies [39] - **Eggs**: Egg prices are under pressure. The short - term focus is on whether the spot price can rebound seasonally, and long - term positions can be considered in the far - month contracts [40] - **Cotton**: Zheng cotton maintains a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and the situation of US and Brazilian cotton [41] - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian production expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [42] - **Apples**: Apple prices oscillate. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate, and the current operation is to wait and see [43] - **Timber**: Timber prices are expected to rise. Demand is improving, and inventory is low [44] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices fell. The market is affected by the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment and weak fundamentals, showing low - level oscillations [45] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows differentiation. The stock index futures market is affected by factors such as international trade negotiations and the Fed's decision. The technology - growth sector can be increased in allocation [46] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose. The "anti - involution" market cooling brings signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to important events and market entry opportunities [47]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View - The document presents the average prices, price changes, and spot premium/discount data of various non - ferrous metals and related products on July 28, 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79,075, with a decrease of 375. The SMM flat - water copper premium/discount is 65, down 20 [1]. Aluminum - The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,660, a decrease of 120. The SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is 0, down 10. The average price of alumina in Shanxi is 3,240 with no change, and the FOB average price of Australian alumina is 380 dollars with no change [1]. Lead - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,775, an increase of 25. The SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 135 with no change. The average price of recycled refined lead is 16,750 with no change, and the refined - scrap price difference is 25, up 25 [1]. Zinc - The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,650, a decrease of 120. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 0, up 20 [1]. Tin - The average price of SMM 1 tin is 268,800, a decrease of 2,300. The SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 410, up 510. The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 256,800, a decrease of 2,300, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan to SMM 1 tin is 95.54% [1]. Nickel - The average price of 1 imported nickel is 122,500, a decrease of 1,550. The average premium/discount of 1 imported nickel to the SHFE nickel contract is 400 with no change. The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 124,250, a decrease of 1,400, and the average premium/discount of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the SHFE nickel contract is 2,150, up 150 [1]. Silicon - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 10,350, a decrease of 150. The 553 silicon spot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,440, up 640. The average price of 421 silicon in Kunming is 10,200. The average price of polysilicon dense material is 0, the average price of granular silicon is 0, and the average price of N - type polysilicon material is 46.5 [1]. Lithium - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900, an increase of 1,000. The battery - grade lithium carbonate premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 2,280, up 8,780. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,700, and the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 with no change [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylic: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Polyethylene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - PX: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, seasonal impacts, and policy uncertainties. Different chemical products face various challenges in supply, demand, and price trends [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined. There is no significant news, and supply is expected to increase due to device restarts. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and price support is limited [2] - Polyolefin futures also fell. For polyethylene, demand from the agricultural film industry is improving but slowly, and overall demand support is weak. For polypropylene, new capacity and reduced maintenance will increase supply, and downstream demand is sluggish [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices declined, following a weak trend. Supply - demand is decreasing, and port inventories are rising slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter later stage but pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures faced resistance. Oil prices are in a sideways trend, supply is high, and downstream demand is stable but with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices dropped, with limited fundamental drivers. PTA inventories are increasing, and processing margins need demand recovery [4] - Ethylene glycol prices decreased, affected by external factors and supply changes. Demand is stable, and inventories are slightly decreasing [4] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed raw material prices down. Short - fiber has a mid - term positive outlook, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity issues [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures tumbled. Coastal port inventories are unexpectedly decreasing, but imports are expected to increase, and the market may be weak in the long - term [5] - Urea futures declined. Agricultural demand is weakening, and the market is likely to trade in a range in the short - term [5] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell from a high. Supply is decreasing due to maintenance, and domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve [6] - Caustic soda prices weakened. Supply pressure is high in the long - term, and prices are expected to be under pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices hit the daily limit down. There is supply pressure, and it is a long - term short - selling target [7] - Glass prices also hit the daily limit down. Market sentiment is cooling, and prices are unlikely to rise significantly without supply reduction [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs. It analyzes the impact of factors such as trade negotiations, weather, policies, and market supply - demand on these products' prices and recommends corresponding investment strategies [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans have significantly reduced positions and pulled back. The Sino - US trade negotiation affects market sentiment, and the domestic commodity futures market has cooled down. The US Midwest has good weather, which is conducive to soybean production. Pay attention to the negotiation results, policy, and weather [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Before August 1st, the US tariff deadline, the third round of Sino - US trade talks will be held in Stockholm. China may resume importing US soybeans in the fourth quarter. If the US weather remains good, new - season soybeans may have a bumper harvest. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory has increased, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is clear [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The Sino - US trade negotiation affects market sentiment, and the domestic commodity futures market has cooled down. The US Midwest weather is good for soybean production. US soybean oil is strong, and palm oil is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious of the short - term oil - strong and meal - weak situation [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term due to uncertainties in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, fund reduction of long positions, and improved weather. The domestic rapeseed system continues to have low inventories, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the short term [6]. Corn - In July, CGSCC held 8 import corn auctions, with a continuous decline in the transaction rate and premium. The supply of corn has affected market expectations. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [7]. Hogs - The sentiment of hog futures has weakened, and the spot price has been declining. The potential supply in the second half of the year is sufficient, and it is recommended that the industry participate in hedging at high prices [8]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs has declined, and the 08 contract has squeezed the premium. The 09 contract has also been affected. The far - month contracts in the first half of next year are relatively strong. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the spot price can continue the seasonal rebound [9].

| 《八� 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月28日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★★★ | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落,盘中价格触及震荡区间上沿。内地棉花现货基差偏稳。部分棉企报盘数量减少,下游纷企维持刚需采购。7 月上半月棉花库存去化速度有所效缓，截至7月15号，棉花商业库存为254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进 口延续偏低的趋势，2025年6月进口3万吨，再创近20年新低，同比降12.53万吨，环比降0.45万吨；20 ...