| 11/14 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月18日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ★☆★ | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | なな☆ | PX | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ★☆☆ | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 瓶片 | | ★☆★ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 以伊战争升级,伊朗甲醇装置已有大面积停车减产动作,霍尔木兹海峡航运安全风险 ...

周三沪铜阳线上涨，现铜78830元，上海铜升水180元。隔夜美国5月零售销售录得年初以来最大降幅，市场关注 联储仪息会议。技术上,伦铜依托MA20日均线稳固震荡。空头持有。 (铝&氧化铝) 今日沪铝延续偏强，华东现货升水收窄20元至190元。近期低库存状态造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头、指数 持仓激增至60万手以上警惕资金转向。下游开工持续走弱,现货价格向上空间有限，关注负反馈能否在库存上 兑现以及月差收窄后的盘面沾空机会。铸造铝合金跟随铝价上行，保太ADC12报价再涨100元至19700元。铝和铸 造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元具备较好的做缩价差机会,但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400-500元波动,如 有扩大考虑多AD空AL个入。近期氧化铝现货成交稀少，各地指数价格连续回落至3200元，几内亚矿石在75美元 趋稳对应山西成本在3000元附近。行业利润修复后国内运行产能连续四周回升至9200万吨以上，过剩压力下期 货贴水如继续修复考虑反弹沽空参与。 【锌】 沪锌06合约实际交割8675吨，07合约持仓偏高，低库存支撑下,SMMO#锌均价报22010元/吨，对07合约实时升水 180元/吨,下游 ...

(原油) gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月18日 国投期货研究院 隔夜国际油价基本收复此前跌幅，布伦特08合约涨6.47%。伊以冲突仍在持续，在美伊重返谈判泉 前中东供应减量的风险依然存在，霍尔木兹海峡附近电磁波干扰增加，油轮通行量已出现短期回 落。上周美国API原油库存大幅下降1013.3万桶，关注今晚EIA库存表现。原油仍持震荡偏强判断， 投资者仍可继续持有低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险。考虑到中东地缘风险升温对中质含统原油 的供应犹动更为直接，中东到中国的油轮运费亦受到支撑，我们相对看涨SC较布伦特的价差。 (责金属) 隔夜黄金震荡，白银延续强势表现。伊以间军事打击延续，目前暂未有明确缓和信号出现，后续发 展尚待观察。本周市场面临美联储议息会议和地缘风险的双击,商品波动率抬升,黄金在前期高点 位置存在阻力，观望为主谨慎参与。 【铜】 隔夜铜价阴线震荡，美国5月零售销售录得年初以来最大降幅，市场关注联储议息会议。国内现铜换 月后沪粤升水低于前期。技术上，伦铜依托MA20日均线稳固震荡,美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效 应,两市合计库存与年初相比减少4-5万吨 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending June 15, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week's 68%, and last year's 70%. The planting rate was 93%, and the emergence rate was 84%, with a slightly lower good-to-excellent rate. The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 72%, higher than the market expectation of 71%, the previous week's 71%, and the same as last year's 72%. The emergence rate of corn was 94% [1]. - In the next two weeks, most soybean - growing areas in the US will have rainfall and temperatures higher than the same - period average, which is continuously beneficial for soybean planting and growth [1]. - Recently, geopolitical factors have driven up crude oil prices, which have a significant impact on some oil futures. The time is gradually entering the weather - trading window, and investors need to closely monitor the driving changes brought about by weather changes from June to August [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybeans - The current planting rate is 93%, compared to the previous week's 90%, the 5 - year average of 94%, and last year's 94% [1]. - The emergence rate is 84%, compared to the previous week's 75%, the 5 - year average of 83%, and last year's 80% [1]. - The good - to - excellent rate is 66%, compared to the previous week's 68%, the 5 - year average of 67%, and last year's 70% [1]. Corn - The planting has stopped. The previous week's rate was 97%, the 5 - year average was 92%, and last year's was 97% [1]. - The emergence rate is 94%, compared to the previous week's 92%, the 5 - year average of 87%, and last year's 92% [1]. - The good - to - excellent rate is 72%, compared to the previous week's 71%, the 5 - year average of 72%, and last year's 72% [1].

中东潘多拉魔盒打开? --- 伊以冲突升级背景下的油气市场潜在影响分析 能源深度 6月11日以来围绕伊以冲突的中东地缘风险迅速升级,首先是特朗普在采访中表示对伊朗停止铀浓缩活动的 信心减弱。6月12日夜间以色列随即先发制人的对伊朗展开空袭,截至今日双方的无人机及导弹袭击持续至第5 天,以色列对伊朗的打击目标也从最初的军事设施及核设施扩大至能源基础设施。尽管目前的军事冲突影响局 限在天然气田、油库等伊以两国的国内能源供应链,尚未对伊朗及周边国家的油气出口产生明显冲击,但本轮 伊以冲突有向伊朗"零铀浓缩"或更替政权的两极方向演绎的倾向，在明确的地缘缓和信号出现前,市场仍将 对油气市场的极端冲击情景进行评估及定价。 原油 伊朗是全球第三大石油储量国、第二大天然气储量国，2025年以来伊朗原油月均产量331.4万桶/天、月均出 口量163.2万桶/天,大约分别在全球占比3.7%、3.8%,疫情后出口流向以中国为主。 ■伊朗到中国原油出口(路透) · 伊朗原油出口 - 伊朗原油产量 kbd 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1 500 1000 500 0 15/9 16/5 17/1 17/ ...

| Million | > 國技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月17日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | PX | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ★☆☆ | 乙二醇 | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 玻璃 | な女女 | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 纯碱 | ★☆★ | 瓶片 | ★☆★ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 受伊以冲突影响,伊朗、埃及尿素工厂大面积停车,国际尿素供应预期紧缺,日内尿素盘面 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, also suggesting a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Report's Core View - Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, different energy products are affected in various ways. Investors should pay attention to supply risks and price fluctuations, and choose appropriate investment strategies based on product fundamentals and geopolitical situations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Before the US and Iran resume negotiations, the Israel - Iran conflict shows no clear sign of downgrading. Although OPEC's effective idle capacity and OPEC+'s production increase elasticity can make up for Iran's oil exports in about 6 months, investors should focus on the risk of attacks on Iran's oil production and export facilities and short - term supply reduction [2] - Based on the market pricing performance in 2011 when Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, the extreme upside risk of the Brent crude oil near - month contract points to $80 - 90 per barrel. Investors are advised to hold out - of - the - money call options for hedging and adopt a medium - term short strategy after the geopolitical situation eases [2] - Due to the direct impact of Middle East geopolitical risks on the supply of medium - sulfur crude oil, the tanker freight from the Middle East to China is supported, and the spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - After the pulse - like rise and subsequent decline of crude oil today, the upward trend of fuel - related futures has come to a halt [3] - The Israel - Iran conflict boosts the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil from ship bunkering and deep - processing is weak, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited due to high valuation. The FU crack spread is expected to be under pressure [3] - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains abundant, the demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is insufficient, and the LU crack spread declines when crude oil strengthens due to geopolitical premium [3] Asphalt - Today, oil prices fell from high levels, and asphalt mainly fluctuated. Due to the gradual consumption of crude oil quotas, the increase in production of local refineries lacks resilience. After the peak maintenance period, major refineries plan to increase the operation of deep - processing units, and the increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited [4] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, increased significantly year - on - year from January to April, indicating a substantial boost in terminal demand soon [4] - The latest factory and social inventories of asphalt have both declined. The fundamental support factors for asphalt still exist, but the BU crack spread is under pressure before the risk of rising oil prices caused by geopolitical risks is eliminated [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East geopolitical conflict is still intensifying, increasing the risk of Iran's LPG production and exports. The international market prices in the risk and remains strong [5] - Currently, China's chemical demand for LPG is still recovering, and attention should be paid to the pressure of declining margins after the increase in import costs. The mid - month arrival volume and refinery gas release are both increasing. If the geopolitical risk eases, the supply pressure will bring strong downward pressure [5] - The fundamental supply - side pressure remains, but the market has been oscillating strongly recently to price in the risk [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [2] 2. Data Information - The closing price data is from June 13, 2025, and the weekly change is the change in the closing price from June 6 to June 13, 2025 [3] - Data sources include Wind and Guotou Futures [3] 3. Market Data Commodities - Crude oil closed at 529.90 with a 13.69% weekly increase; methanol at 2389.00 with a 5.52% increase; PTA at 4782.00 with a 2.79% increase; etc [3] A - shares - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 closed at 3864.18 with a - 0.25% weekly change; the CSI 500 at 5740.24 with a - 0.38% change; the SSE 50 at 2676.43 with a - 0.46% change [3] Overseas Stocks - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23892.56 with a 0.42% change; the Nikkei 225 at 37834.25 with a 0.25% change; the S&P 500 at 5976.97 with a - 0.39% change [3] Bonds - The 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond closed at 1.43 with a - 1.13% change; the 5 - year at 1.52 with a - 1.15% change; the 10 - year at 1.65 with a - 1.61% change [3] Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.16 with a 1.37% change; the US dollar central parity rate was 7.18 with a - 0.10% change; the US dollar index was 98.15 with a - 1.07% change [3] 4. Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector - **Futures on Stock Indexes** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logic: Sino - US talks, low US inflation and employment data, increased A - share trading volume, and positive changes in SSE 50 and CSI 500 after sample adjustment [4] - Bearish logic: Tensions in the Middle East, reduced ETF shares tracking the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, weak economic data, and tariff uncertainties [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish and 5 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logic: Negative CPI and PPI, trade risk mitigation, and increased government bond maturity in June [4] - Bearish logic: Limited effectiveness of monetary tools, limited upside space, and factors suppressing short - term bonds [4] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logic: Escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, lower - than - expected OPEC+ production increase, potential Strait of Hormuz blockade, and high implied volatility [5] - Bearish logic: OPEC's production increase signal, global oil surplus, US shale oil recovery, and planned US - Iran talks [5] Agricultural Products Sector - **Eggs** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logic: Increased chicken culling, more eggs in cold storage, upcoming demand peak, and low breeding enthusiasm [5] - Bearish logic: High - temperature sales, weak terminal demand, pessimistic market sentiment, and high new egg production [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logic: Supply disruptions, falling inventories, potential smelter production cuts, and tight scrap copper supply [6] - Bearish logic: US tariff plans, geopolitical tensions, high short - term production, and weak domestic demand [6] Chemicals Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish and 3 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logic: Geopolitical tensions, unstable Iranian gas supply, tight port supplies, and increased MTO device operation [6] - Bearish logic: High domestic coal - based methanol production, port inventory pressure, and potential import increase [6] Precious Metals - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish and 2 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logic: Geopolitical risks, expected Fed rate cuts, low inflation data, and increased ETF holdings [7] - Bearish logic: Reduced speculative positions, potential risk - appetite recovery, positive trade signals, and technical pressure [7] Black Metals Sector - **Rebar** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logic: Inventory reduction, rising oil prices, reduced production, and strong raw material demand [7] - Bearish logic: Declining demand, seasonal factors, high production profit, and falling export data [7]

| Millio | >国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月17日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜黄金回落,自银波动有限。伊以军事对抗延续,媒体报道伊朗希望与以色列绘和敌对关系，美国方面提 出与伊朗会晤的提议,但并未有明确的停战信号释放,特朗普呼吁所有人撤离德黑兰,后续发展尚持观察。 短期黄金震荡偏强波动率抬升,不过在今年4月5月双顶位置存在阻力,本周市场面临美联储议息会议和地缘 风险的双击,观望为主谨慎参与。今晚关注美国零售销售数据。 ★关税-①特朗普宣布英美签署贸易协议,卢特尼克将决定钢铝关税的豁免配额。2报道称欧盟准备有条件 地接受美国10%的统一关税,欧盟方面称该说法是猜测性的。③印度和美国计划在7月9日前签署临时协议。 (4日美首脑G7峰 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "な女女" [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ and "な女女" [1] - Alumina: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "ななな" [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "文文文" [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "なな☆" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "な女女" [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "ななな" [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of non - ferrous metals shows different trends in various sub - industries. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and cost factors, with corresponding investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Tuesday. After delivery, the spot copper was reported at 78,715 yuan. After the month - change, the premium in Shanghai was 240 yuan, lower than the same period last month. The London copper oscillated steadily relying on the MA20 moving average. The visible inventories in the US and London markets showed a strong seesaw effect. The total inventory of the two markets was about 300,000 tons, a decrease of about 40,000 - 50,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year. Short - sellers should consider changing positions to the 2508 contract and stop losses above 79,500 [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. After delivery and month - change, the spot premium in East China was 210 yuan. On Monday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 200 tons, while that of aluminum rods increased by 400 tons, showing signs of a slowdown in destocking. The current strong reality and weak expectation deepened the Back structure, which was beneficial to long - positions in the short term. After the index position soared to 600,000 lots, beware of the change in capital direction. After Shanghai aluminum filled the previous gap, there was no strong upward driving force technically. Cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock. The spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy widened to 1,000 yuan, providing a good opportunity to narrow the price difference. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 on the disk fluctuated between 400 - 500 yuan. Recently, the spot transaction price of alumina dropped to 3,100 - 3,200 yuan. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. The domestic operating capacity had increased for four consecutive weeks to over 9.2 million tons. Under the pressure of over - supply, the futures continued to be weak [2] Zinc - The capital congestion of Shanghai zinc was still high. Some short - sellers took profits, driving the disk to rebound. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased by 13,600 lots to 280,500 lots, and the capital outflow was 245 million yuan. Consumption was advanced, and there was a downward pressure on demand in June compared with the previous month. The previously overhauled smelters resumed production one after another, and new production capacity was put into operation. Against the background of increasing supply and weak demand, zinc should be mainly short - sold on rebounds [3] Aluminum - Due to weak demand and the expectation of some secondary aluminum smelters to resume production, long - sellers reduced their positions on Tuesday. Shanghai aluminum failed to effectively break through the key pressure level of 17,000 yuan. The SMM1 aluminum was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the near - month disk, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The downstream showed good enthusiasm for inquiring at low prices. The spot import window was still closed. The tight supply of aluminum concentrate and waste batteries provided strong cost support. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [5] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined steadily, and the market trading was active. In the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,500 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 250 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel was reported at 933 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support weakened significantly. In terms of inventory, the inventory of nickel ferro - nickel increased by 3,000 tons to 34,600 tons, the pure nickel inventory remained flat at 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 25,000 tons to 999,000 tons. Shanghai nickel was in a short - selling trend, and short - sellers should mainly hold their positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated and closed down. The spot tin was reported at 264,000 yuan. Both domestic and foreign tin prices were blocked at the MA60 moving average. Indonesia's tin exports continued to increase in May, and the production capacity affected by the natural gas supply interruption in Malaysia in April restarted, depressing the tin price. Overall, although the technical pattern of the tin market was stable, the trend direction was not significant between the supply - demand reality and expectations. Some short - sellers reduced their positions and held them in the far - month contracts [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuated at a low level. The market trading was dull. The downstream material manufacturers had weak purchasing enthusiasm and no further intention to stock up, waiting for the price to decline further. The price game between the upstream and downstream led to a continuous low trading activity in the market, and the psychological price gap between buyers and sellers was obvious. The total market inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 133,500 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 400 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 500 tons to 58,000 tons, and the intermediate link increased inventory by 1,000 tons. The short - selling core driving force was stagnant, and it was regarded as a short - term shock [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,360 yuan/ton. Currently, the quotations of silicon enterprises remained stable. The disk price was inverted below the industry's lowest cost line and lower than the manufacturers' quotations. Last week, the shipment situation of the delivery warehouse improved, and the downstream had certain replenishment behavior. Some short - sellers on the disk closed their positions to boost the rebound, and some long - sellers took profits and left the market. The current market sentiment was cautious, and the upward and downward spaces were limited. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of production of large factories at the beginning of the month advanced, and there might be further production increases in Xinjiang in the future. Although the downstream demand improved marginally, the increase was difficult to offset the increase in supply. The main trend was still bearish, and it was advisable to hold a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures oscillated and closed down, and the market trading atmosphere was dull. The SMM re -投料 spot quotation was 35,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The sentiment in the downstream silicon wafer market was relatively low, and the production schedule in June was expected to be reduced by about 2GW. In contrast, the production schedule of polysilicon in June increased by 4,800 tons month - on - month to about 100,000 tons. If the production continued to increase, it would further increase the inventory pressure. Silicon wafer enterprises generally suffered losses, and their acceptance of high - price polysilicon raw materials decreased. It was expected that the polysilicon spot price would face pressure, and the disk trend would remain oscillating weakly [10]